瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 聚丙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：本周受中美关税下调叠加国际油价走强影响，PP期货价格大幅拉涨。周四、周五PP随国际油价走 弱回调，整体冲高回落收涨。截至2025年5月16日收盘，PP2509合约报收于7093元/吨，较上周收盘上涨 1.81%。 基本面：供应端，本周中煤榆林、茂名石化、惠州立拓等装置停车检修，PP产量环比-4.00%至74.86万吨， 产能利用率环比-3.19%至76.56%。需求端，本周下游开工止降回升，平均开工率环比+0.33%至49.83%。 本周PP商业库存在83.86万吨，环比-6.51%，压力不大。上游企业密集检修，供应压力减弱，生产企业库 存环比-8.04%；终端产品外贸环境改善，市场交投好转，中间商低位备货，贸易商库存环比+11.27%；出 口成交增量有限，港口库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices showing certain resilience and remaining relatively firm. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. - The market focus for soybeans is on Sino - US trade relations and North American planting season weather. The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to experience intensified fluctuations in the short term due to a mix of positive and negative factors [7]. - With an increase in soybean arrivals and high - level operation of oil mills, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly with a short - selling strategy recommended when prices are high [8]. - The supply of soybean oil is also expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly in the short term. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2507 contract rose by 0.36% to 4168 yuan/ton. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and prices are relatively firm. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.28% to 3520 yuan/ton. The market is influenced by Sino - US trade relations and weather, and the CBOT soybean futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2509 contract remained flat at 2899 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly. A short - selling strategy is recommended when prices are high [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.33% to 7754 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Soybean No. 1 rose, soybean meal remained flat, and soybean oil fell this week [13][19][25]. - **Spread Changes**: The 9 - 1 spreads of soybean meal and soybean oil both decreased [31][36]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The net position of soybean No. 1 decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean meal increased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean oil decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased [43][47][55]. Spot Market - **Price and Basis Changes**: The spot price of domestic soybeans remained flat, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean meal fell, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean oil declined, and the basis decreased [62][68][72]. - **Imported Soybean Indicators**: The import premium of imported soybeans changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans increased [76][80]. 3. Industry Situation Weather - **North American Weather**: The drought situation in the US soybean - producing areas has deepened compared with last week and is worse than the same period last year [84]. - **US Soybean Weather**: In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, the temperature in the main US soybean - producing states is close to normal, and rainfall is lower than normal [88]. Upstream - **Supply - Side Information**: The expected production and inventory of US soybeans in the new year have been adjusted downward; the expected production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans remains unchanged, and their inventories have increased [90][95][100]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: The US soybean sowing progress is fast, and the Argentine soybean harvesting progress has recovered [107]. - **Export - Related Information**: The US soybean export inspection volume and sales volume have decreased, while Brazil's soybean export is expected to increase [113][119]. Domestic Industry - **Inventory and Operation of Oil Mills**: The soybean inventory of major oil mills, soybean meal inventory, and soybean oil inventory have all increased. The oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [123][127][131][135]. - **Soybean Import and Arrival**: In April, the import volume of soybeans increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume of soybeans in May is expected to increase [141][145]. - **Profit and Substitute Products**: The profit of domestic soybeans has decreased. The price of palm oil has risen, the price of rapeseed oil has fallen, the price of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the oil - meal ratio has declined [149][153][166][173]. - **Transaction Volume**: The spot transaction volume of soybean meal and the terminal transaction volume of soybean oil have both increased [181]. Downstream - **Livestock and Poultry Market**: The prices of live pigs and piglets have fallen, and the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry have declined [186][192]. - **Feed Market**: The monthly output of feed has decreased month - on - month, the inventory of breeding sows has increased, and the inventory of live pigs has increased month - on - month [197][202]. 4. Options Market - From the trend of soybean meal, it is recommended to buy at - the - money put options as it is expected to operate weakly [214]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. [2][11] - It analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and influencing factors of each commodity, and gives corresponding trend strengths. [11][14] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level oscillatory market due to falling oil prices. Suggest to go long on PX and short on PTA, and take long positions in the forward contract at low prices. [8][11] - **PTA**: Suggest to take long positions in the forward contract at low prices. Pay attention to the subsequent polyester inventory situation. [11] - **MEG**: Supply further contracts, and the price continues to be strong unilaterally. [11] Synthetic Rubber - The upward trend is slowing down, and it is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern. [12][14] Asphalt - Follows the crude oil to oscillate repeatedly. [15] LLDPE - In the short - term, it is relatively strong, but in the medium - term, it is under pressure due to factors such as new capacity, weak demand, and falling costs. [32] PP - The price rises slightly, but the trading volume is weak. [35][36] Caustic Soda - Supported by short - term downstream replenishment, the spot price rebounds, but there is still pressure in the later period. [40] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable, and the trading atmosphere is tepid. [45] Methanol - Runs in an oscillatory manner. [48][51] Urea - Oscillates with support, presenting a long - short game pattern. [56][57] Styrene - In the short - term, it oscillates strongly, mainly due to factors such as the release of downstream demand, low port inventory, and unexpected equipment maintenance. [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little and is expected to run stably in the short - term. [63] LPG - Short - term negative factors are realized, and attention should be paid to the lower support. [65][72] PVC - In the short - term, it oscillates, but there is still pressure in the later period due to high production and inventory. [75][76] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil continues to fall at night, and the short - term weakness continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil experiences a short - term pullback, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market narrows slightly. [80] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Oscillates strongly. Hold the 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads. [82][94] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both are in short - term oscillations. Hold the long PF and short PR positions. [95] Offset Printing Paper - Oscillates weakly due to factors such as a decline in the operating rate and an increase in inventory. [98][100]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to decline in a volatile manner. The spot market sentiment is divided, with the expectation of strong spot and weak futures. A short - selling strategy can be maintained for futures [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to move sideways. It is recommended to hold a long position in the 9 - 1 spread and maintain a long - only strategy for single - side trading [2]. - Oils are expected to be weak. It is advised to exit short - term long positions [2]. - Eggs are expected to move sideways. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support egg prices in the short term, but the egg prices are likely to be weak later due to the Mei - yu season and increasing supply [2][3]. - Pigs are expected to move sideways. Pig prices will continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: On Thursday, the July corn contract decreased with reduced positions. The domestic average corn price is 2365 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. Northeast prices are stable, North China prices are generally stable, and the prices in the sales areas are rising. Technically, the futures price is in high - level volatility, and a short - selling strategy can be maintained [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans tumbled from a 10 - month high, and soybean oil hit the daily limit down. The U.S. biodiesel policy may be less than expected. The domestic protein meal is strong. It is recommended to hold a long position in the 9 - 1 spread and maintain a long - only strategy for single - side trading [2]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil, Canadian rapeseed, and CBOT soybean oil declined. The domestic oil futures prices are falling, and the basis is expected to continue to decline. It is advised to exit short - term long positions [2]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the 2506 egg contract declined by 1.23%, and the 2509 contract rose by 0.13%. The spot price is slightly down. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support prices in the short term, but the prices are likely to be weak later [2][3]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the main pig contract closed with a medium - sized阴线, and the September contract continued to move sideways. The Henan market price is down slightly, and pig prices will continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. 3.2 Market Information - In April 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.53 million tons, up 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 4.2 percentage points year - on - year, and the proportion of soybean meal decreased by 1.3 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased by 6.63% - 14.21% compared with the same period last month according to different institutions [4]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index declined. The average pork price remained the same, and the egg price increased by 1.5% [5]. - The expected biodiesel mandatory blending volume may be 46 - 48 billion gallons, far lower than the previous expectation of 55 - 57.5 billion gallons [2][5]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents charts of 9 - 1 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [7][8][10][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report presents charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][19][22][27].

2025 年 05 月 16 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：继续反弹 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 安 期 货 研 | 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | --- | | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | 1-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20185 | -90 | 675 | 380 | -150 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20220 | ー | ー | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2499 | -24 | 91 | 130 | -126 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 170538 | 9588 | -97025 | -52590 | 45709 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 200883 | 49079 | 8178 | 71211 | 38745 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 11628 | -6439 | -414 | -10173 | - ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-05-15 市场氛围提振，区域价格上涨 市场分析 1、5月14日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2506合约下午收盘价3521元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨43元/吨，涨幅 1.24%；持仓87087手，环比下降8330手，成交140150手，环比上涨8757手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3700—4086元/吨；山东，3470—3750元/吨；华南，3380—3460元/吨； 华东，3500—3570元/吨。 昨日华北以及山东地区沥青现货价格出现上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。随着宏观情绪好转，原油以及 沥青期货持续上涨，沥青成本端支撑增强，现货市场氛围有所提振。就当前基本面而言，目前库存仍处于低位， 市场短期压力有限。但随着国内部分炼厂利润修复、提高开工率，国内沥青供应边际回升，此外在降水天气影响 下，国内终端需求表现乏力，现货价格推涨力度仍显不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the caustic soda industry, dated May 14, 2025, provided by Ruida Futures [2]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View - In the short - term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2450 and resistance around 2570. The reduction of Sino - US reciprocal tariff rates to 10% within 90 days is beneficial for non - aluminum terminal exports such as clothing. There is still support from overseas markets like Indonesia. However, the high - cost alumina plants' production cuts and new capacity launches coexist, with limited profit repair and difficult improvement in caustic soda consumption demand. Non - aluminum enterprises' replenishment rhythm is expected to slow down [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the futures trading volume is 678,133 lots, up 113,667 lots; the futures open interest is 190,125 lots, down 16,636 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 17,734 lots, down 8,248 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2520 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan, and the May contract is 0 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [3]. 2. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 225 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 676 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 50 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 95 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [3]. 4. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina is 2895 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3]. 5. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the United States starting from 12:01 on May 14, 2025. The tariff rate in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff rate on the United States was suspended for 90 days. The tariff measures in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped [3]. - From May 2 - 8, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.2% to 83.9% week - on - week. As of May 8, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises decreased by 6.6% week - on - week to 388,400 tons (wet tons), and decreased by 10.72% year - on - year [3]. - As of May 8, the alumina plant production cuts became more widespread, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to a low level. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 1.29% to 79.71% week - on - week, and the dyeing operating rate increased by 0.63% to 60.68% week - on - week [3]. 6. Viewpoint Summary - The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 6.6% to 388,400 tons last week, at a moderately high level in the same period. In May, the shut - down capacity in the chlor - alkali industry increased, alleviating the supply pressure. The alumina high - cost plant production cuts and new capacity launches coexisted, but the profit repair was limited, and the caustic soda consumption demand was difficult to increase. The non - aluminum enterprises' replenishment rhythm is expected to slow down. The Sino - US economic and trade talks are beneficial for non - aluminum terminal exports, and there is still support from overseas markets [3].

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1220 | 1220 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1360 | 1360 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1150 | 1170 | -20 | -1.71% | | | 华南报价 | 1320 | 1320 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1019 | 1047 | -28 | -2.67% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1016 | 1045 | -29 | -2.78% | | | 05基差 | 201 | 173 | 28 | 16.18% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单 ...

Q1 来水不佳，湖北现货即将转正 湖北能源(000883) 2024 年报及 25Q1 季报点评 | [table_Authors] 吴杰(分析师) | 胡鸿程(研究助理) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 5.61 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880525040109 | S0880125042225 | | | 本报告导读： 公司 24 年和 25Q1 业绩分别受到减值和来水不佳影响，湖北现货市场推进，看好公 司电源长期价值释放。 投资要点： 风险提示。来水不及预期、电价下行、新能源盈利性下滑。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 18,669 | 20,031 | 20,045 | 21,655 | 21,980 | | (+/-)% | -9.3% | 7.3% | 0.1% ...

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/5/13 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 870.50 | -19.00↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1447.00 | -24.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 485608.00 | +30759.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 54407.00 | +1128.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） ...