Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai copper increased in volume and rose sharply at the end of the session. The 01 - 02 spread widened to 240. Spot copper rose 1220 to 94690, and the spot discount widened 95 to 310. The spot import loss widened to over 1700, the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 7.82, and the LME0 - 3 back structure widened to 13, opening the export window [11]. - Market Outlook: Despite strong US economic growth data, the market's view of the US dollar remains unchanged due to expectations of Fed rate cuts next year. The US dollar index continues to decline, and the macro - positive factors will continue to drive copper prices up [11]. Group 3: Industry News - World Bank Forecast: In the short term, the possibility of a significant correction in metal prices is low. From 2026 to 2027, most base metal prices are expected to strengthen further due to moderate demand growth and a tightening supply pattern. The base metal price index is expected to rise nearly 2% cumulatively. Copper and tin prices are expected to reach new nominal US - dollar - denominated highs, and supply - side pressure in the aluminum, copper, and tin markets will be the core driving force for price increases [11]. - Company News: Jintian Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that its air - conditioner inner - threaded aluminum tube products can meet customer needs and have achieved small - batch supply. Its electromagnetic aluminum flat wire and aluminum automotive 3D bent bars are in the certification and mass - supply stages [11]

【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 【要闻速递】 摘要今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市，上海黄金交易所黄金t+d12月25日(周四)早盘盘初下跌0.55%报 1004.08元/克。 希夫的通胀警告招致特朗普直接回击。本月早些时候，希夫做客《Fox and Friends Weekend》后，特朗 普于12月6日在Truth Social发帖，斥其为"憎恨特朗普的失败者""混蛋"，并反驳物价上涨论，称部分州 汽油价已降至每加仑1.99美元，物价"正大幅下降"。 今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市，上海黄金交易所黄金t+d12月25日(周四)早盘盘初下跌0.55%报 1004.08元/克。 希夫驳斥称，仅盯燃料价格忽视整体负担压力，"通胀正在上升，几乎没下降可能，只会走高"。他以租 金、保险及服务成本上涨为例，指通胀仍深植经济。回应特朗普时，希夫强调通胀源于历届政府政策选 择，非政治言辞："拜登引发'负担能力危机'时，获特朗普第一任期'助力'，且未解决问题反加剧"。他 总结，核心不在言辞而在货币政策，警告即便有相反说法，降息与资产负债表再扩张或于2026年推高通 胀。 黄金T+D价格延续短期回调，主力合约承压于关键 ...

今日周四（12月25日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于1007附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂1007.36元/ 克，跌幅.0.52%，最高触及1014.28元/克，最低下探1003.12元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看跌走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 以色列外交部长萨尔通过社交媒体发声，称以政府强烈反对部分国家对以方在约旦河西岸扩建定居点决 议的批评。以方声明强调，"外国政府无权限制犹太人在以色列土地上居住的权利，任何此类呼吁在道 德上错误且带有歧视犹太人的性质。"此前，24日法国、德国、加拿大等14国发表联合声明，谴责以色 列近日批准在约旦河西岸新建犹太人定居点的决定。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金主力合约今日承压回调，失守关键支撑位，短期面临调整压力，但中长期上行逻辑未改，受美联储 降息预期及地缘风险支撑。关注5日与10日均线交叉信号，若金价企稳均线上方，可能重拾涨势； MACD指标需警惕红柱收缩风险。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound [1] - Alumina: Bottom consolidation [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] Report's Core View - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market and spot market data, and also mentions relevant market news and trend intensities [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 22,330, up 135 from T - 1. The trading volume was 294,532, and the open interest was 296,924. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,957, up 1. The LME cancellation warrant ratio was 14.05%, down 0.27% [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,554, up 34 from T - 1. The trading volume was 171,600, and the open interest was 110,145. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was - 16 [1] - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,480, up 215 from T - 1. The trading volume was 7,414, and the open interest was 15,141. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was - 150 [1] Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The pre - baked anode market price was 6,187, unchanged. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 5,823.24, up 181.65. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 588,000 tons, unchanged [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina average price was 2,719, down 18. The alumina enterprise profit and loss in Shanxi was - 152, down 5 [1] - **Aluminum alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 22, down 21. The three - place inventory totaled 47,253, down 113 [1] Market News - The US dollar may have its "worst year" since 2003, falling nearly 10%. The divergence of global central bank policies is the driving force for the collapse. The euro and other non - US currencies have strengthened comprehensively, and gold has reached a record high [3] - The Japanese finance minister repeatedly emphasized the "discretionary power" to intervene in the foreign exchange market, pushing the market's expectation of intervention to a high point. The key defense line for the US dollar against the yen is seen at 160 [3] Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 0; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [3]

广发早知道-汇总版 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 广发期货研究所 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 12 月 25 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 焦煤：产地煤价涨跌互现，蒙煤价格跟随期货波动，盘面超跌反弹 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z ...

人民币为何走强 进入四季度，尤其是11月下旬以来人民币对美元汇率持续小幅升值。 申万宏源宏观团队指出，10月下旬的汇率升值或与央行逆周期调节有关，12月或是美元走弱的助力。10月至11月，在"三价合一"的背景下，央行 重启逆周期因子、不断调升的中间价对升值有一定引导；12月以来，美元再度走弱，人民币与美元的1个月动态相关性快速回升至0.95。 时隔近15个月首次，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破"7"这一整数关口。 12月25日，更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率升破"7"，这是去年10月以来首次收复这一整数关口。 | < W | | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | USDCNH.FX | | | | | 6.99955 | | 前收 | 7.00760 | 开盘 | 7.00720 | | -0.00805 -0.11% | | 英品 | 6.99984 | 买入 | 6.99926 | | 最高 | 7.01200 | 今年来 | -4.60% | 20日 | -0.98% | | 最低 | 6.99898 | ...

晨报 铝锭 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 25 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位震荡。宏观上海内外宏观情绪偏向利好，市场对美 联储降息预期增强，美联储官员正在平衡就业市场放缓的风险和对顽固高 通胀的担忧，利多铝价及有色金属板块。 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观仍有支撑 关注高位压力 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-2085765 ...

重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货持平，报 4505.4 美元/盎司；COMEX 白银期货涨 1.04%，报 71.88 美元/盎司。沪金收跌 0.16%报 6088 元/克，沪银 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the A - share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving six consecutive daily gains. Different futures varieties had diverse price movements and market conditions, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international market trends [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 24, the A - share market's three major indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.53% to close at 3940.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.88% to 13486.42 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed 0.77% to 3229.58 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1880.3 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 19.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4634.06, a rise of 13.32 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On December 24, the weighted index of coke showed a narrow - range shock, closing at 1727.2, up 5.6. The mainstream steel mills' purchase prices were generally reduced by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the third round of price cuts was implemented. The coke enterprises' production declined, and the total coke inventory decreased. The blast furnace operation and molten iron output continued to decline, with overall weak driving force [2][4]. - Coking coal: On December 24, the weighted index of coking coal fluctuated within a range, closing at 1119.7 yuan, up 7.6. The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 1320 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 1100 yuan/ton on the futures market. The central government emphasized "dual - carbon" and energy - power construction, which was beneficial for the long - term transformation of the industry. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and the coking coal inventory was increasing. The load of steel and coking enterprises decreased, and the price cut of coke was implemented, leading to a narrowing of coke enterprises' profits and rigid - demand procurement [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by short - covering, the US sugar continued to rise on December 23. Driven by the rise of US sugar and the increase of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose sharply on December 24. Due to a large short - term increase, it had an oscillatory adjustment at night and closed slightly higher. In November 2025, China's refined sugar production was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to November 2025, the production was 12.633 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. In November 2025, the dairy product output was 2.431 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; from January to November, it was 26.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [4]. Rubber - Supported by the firm crude oil price and the increase of Southeast Asian spot prices, Shanghai rubber rose significantly on December 24. Due to a large short - term increase, it had an oscillatory adjustment at night and closed slightly higher. At the end of November 2025, the inventory of the national passenger vehicle industry was 3.79 million, an increase of 380,000 compared with the previous month and 590,000 compared with November 2024. Based on the inventory at the end of November 2025 and the estimated sales in the next three months, the current inventory can support 61 days of sales, compared with 48 days in November 2024, indicating relatively high inventory pressure in November 2025 [4][6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on December 24, due to position adjustment before the Christmas holiday, CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly, but the market was still cautious about the US soybean export sales speed. Brazil's soybean sowing was basically completed, the weather in South America continued to improve, and sporadic harvesting had begun in northern Brazil, with an optimistic production outlook, which restricted the rise of US soybean prices. Domestically, on December 24, the M2605 main contract closed at 2728 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%. Recently, the arrival of imported soybeans in China slowed down, but oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory rose to 1.1371 million tons, an increase of 40,200 tons week - on - week and 554,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and oil mills had little motivation to support prices. It is recommended to focus on extreme weather changes in South America and the arrival volume of soybeans [6]. Live Pigs - On December 24, the LH2603 main contract closed at 11,480 yuan/ton, a 0.57% increase from the previous trading day. Currently, the enthusiasm for live pig slaughter in the breeding end is generally high. As the effective time for pre - holiday slaughter decreases, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises has significantly accelerated. The slaughter intention of individual farmers and secondary fattening groups has also increased, jointly pushing the market's live pig circulation to a high level. The demand side shows signs of marginal improvement. As the peak of curing and stocking in Southwest China approaches, the sales of fresh pork have accelerated significantly, and the slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The phased strengthening of consumption demand has a certain boosting effect on live pig prices and alleviates the downward pressure from the supply side to some extent. It is recommended to focus on the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of cured meat consumption [6]. Palm Oil - On December 24, palm oil continued to rebound but was blocked when rising. The P2605 contract closed with a doji star with an upper shadow, with the highest price of 8548, the lowest price of 8482, and the closing price of 8488, a 0.02% increase from the previous day. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%, with a 11.66% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 2.12% decrease in Sabah, a 0.75% decrease in Sarawak, and a 1.73% decrease in Borneo [6]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose strongly, closing at 96,100 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 95,260 yuan. The highest price during the day reached 96,750 yuan/ton, with large intraday fluctuations and active market trading. The final trading volume was 307,141 lots, and the open interest was 258,277 lots. The copper futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2679 tons to 52,222 tons, and the inventories on LME and COMEX also increased, showing an accumulation trend in global inventory. SMM predicts that China's electrolytic copper production in December will increase by 5.96% month - on - month. The copper concentrate processing fee is at a historical low, and some smelters are in a state of production reduction. Globally, copper mines in many places have frequent accidents, with a 4.7% year - on - year decline in production in major producing areas such as Chile and Indonesia. The copper concentrate processing fee has dropped to a historical low of - 40 US dollars/ton, and smelters at home and abroad have reduced production, which supports the upward movement of copper prices. The demand from traditional home appliances and construction is weak, but the demand from emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI computing centers is remarkable, becoming the core growth engine of copper demand. At the same time, China's power grid investment has stable growth, supporting copper consumption. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues to heat up, the US dollar index is under pressure to decline, reducing the holding cost of non - ferrous metals. The US has included copper in the list of critical minerals, and the expectation of additional import tariffs has led to an imbalance in the global copper inventory distribution, further boosting the copper price [6][7]. Cotton - On the night of December 24, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,175 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil price pushed up the cost of polyester, and the US dollar index weakened. Cotton textile enterprises replenished inventory as needed. The cotton inventory increased by 282 lots compared with the previous trading day [7]. Iron Ore - On December 24, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.26% and a closing price of 779.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment decreased compared with the previous period, the arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand in the off - season was still at a low level, and the molten iron output continued to decline. The short - term iron ore price was in an oscillatory trend [7]. Asphalt - On December 24, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.27% and a closing price of 2996 yuan. The planned production volume of asphalt from local refineries in January decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, the inventory decreased slightly, the demand in the off - season continued to shrink, and the refineries' sales were blocked. The short - term asphalt price showed an oscillatory operation [7]. Logs - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 770 on December 24, with the lowest price of 769.5, the highest price of 777.5, and closed at 776, with a reduction of 112 lots in open interest. The spot - market support should be noted. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. In the future, attention should be paid to the spot - market price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [7][8]. Steel - On December 24, rb2605 closed at 3136 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3285 yuan/ton. The weak demand pattern in the steel market in the off - season is difficult to change, the steel mills' production continues to run at a low level, the supply and demand are generally in a weak - balance pattern, the inventory pressure is not large, and the steel mills' ex - factory prices are mainly stable. At the same time, the prices of raw fuels fluctuate within a narrow range, the coking coal market shows signs of bottoming out and stabilizing, and the iron ore price has a slight decline from a high level. The cost still supports the steel price. In the short term, the steel price may continue to oscillate within a narrow range [8]. Alumina - On December 24, ao2601 closed at 2554 yuan/ton. In the short term, enterprises have little willingness to reduce production. With the inflow of imported goods and the supplement of delivery goods, the short - term supply will remain sufficient, and the oversupply situation will continue, putting pressure on the alumina price. For further production - reduction situations, the market dynamics in 2026 after the execution of long - term contracts need to be noted. On the demand side, the northwest electrolytic aluminum plants had concentrated restocking before, resulting in increased unloading pressure. With high inventory, their willingness to purchase alumina on the spot market has decreased significantly; the supply in the southern region is stable, and only individual aluminum plants purchase at low prices. In the spot market, holders mainly focus on selling, and downstream enterprises maintain the rhythm of purchasing as needed. Most buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has increased, driving the whole - day trading [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On December 24, al2602 closed at 22,330 yuan/ton. In the macro - aspect, non - ferrous metals are still strongly driven by precious metals. Silver has continuously reached new highs, and copper and aluminum continue to be driven upward. The market is optimistic about the Fed's interest rate cut next year, and the expectation of loose liquidity strongly supports precious metals and non - ferrous metals. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side operates stably. The downstream aluminum - water consumption capacity in some areas has weakened, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the production areas has accumulated significantly. The shipment of aluminum ingots has partially recovered, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The demand side shows a weakening trend. As the end of the year approaches, both the purchasing and sales sides have cooled down, and there is a certain degree of production reduction and shutdown in Central China. Large - scale downstream processing factories maintain a certain demand. The demand in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial materials fields is relatively stable, while the consumption in the rod and bar fields shows some pressure [9].

Group 1: Gold Market - London spot gold has reached an all-time high of $4500 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of over 70% this year [1][6] - Domestic gold prices in China have also surged, with Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 price surpassing 1000 yuan per gram [1][6] - Factors driving gold prices include geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6] Group 2: Copper Market - LME copper futures have broken through $12,000 per ton for the first time, reaching a historical high of $12,133 per ton on December 24, with a year-to-date increase of over 38% [1][7] - Citigroup predicts that copper prices could reach $15,000 in a bullish scenario due to a weaker dollar and further interest rate cuts [7] - The copper market is influenced by supply disruptions, industrial demand, and concerns over potential copper tariffs [1][7] Group 3: Broader Non-Ferrous Metals Market - The non-ferrous metals sector is seen as a diversified investment opportunity, encompassing precious metals like gold, strategic metals like lithium and rare earths, and industrial metals like copper and aluminum [7] - Institutions believe that the non-ferrous metals sector will continue its bullish trend, with various firms expressing optimism about the ongoing market conditions [7][8] - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF (159876) has shown positive performance, reflecting investor confidence in the sector, with a daily inflow of 9.81 million yuan [8][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - A comprehensive investment approach through ETFs covering various non-ferrous metals can help mitigate risks associated with investing in single metals [10] - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds provide exposure to a wide range of metals, making them suitable for portfolio diversification [10]