Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Hong Kong stock market and the changes in foreign capital preferences since May 2025, driven by improved Sino-US relations and a weaker dollar [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Foreign Capital Inflow**: From May to July 2025, long-term foreign capital returned to the Hong Kong stock market, totaling nearly 70 billion HKD [1][5]. - **Sector Performance**: - Despite an overall outflow of foreign capital from early 2024 to April 2025, there was an increase in investment in hardware and consumer goods sectors [3]. - From May 2025 onwards, both long-term and short-term foreign capital consistently flowed into the technology sector, while real estate and pharmaceuticals showed mixed results [3][10]. - Dividend and retail sectors faced significant reductions in foreign investment [4][9]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a stable Sino-US trade relationship are anticipated to continue driving foreign capital back into the Hong Kong market [6]. Investment Trends - **Technology Sector**: The technology and internet sectors, along with large financial institutions, remain long-term favorites for foreign investors, with foreign ownership in these sectors reaching approximately 70% [7]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The technology sector in Hong Kong is noted for its low valuation and strong fundamentals, making it attractive for foreign investment [10][11]. - **AI Industry Impact**: The ongoing transformation in the AI industry is expected to benefit leading technology companies in Hong Kong, providing significant upside potential [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the Hong Kong market is improving due to geopolitical factors and a historical low in asset allocation towards Chinese markets [5]. - **Sector-Specific Trends**: - The banking sector experienced a net outflow exceeding 200 billion HKD, while the retail sector saw a net outflow of approximately 180 billion HKD from 2024 to April 2025 [8]. - The biopharmaceutical sector saw long-term investments increase by 6.8 billion HKD but faced short-term reductions of 18 billion HKD, resulting in a net decrease of 11.2 billion HKD [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Hong Kong stock market, foreign capital trends, and sector-specific insights.

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices continued to rise. Concerns about the Fed's independence boosted risk - aversion sentiment, and the release of the US July PCE data further strengthened the market's interest - rate cut expectation. COMEX gold futures approached the historical high, and international silver prices reached a 14 - year high [3][6][7]. - The US economy remains resilient, but under Trump's pressure, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed support for interest - rate cuts, and the market expects a more than 86% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in September [3][7]. - Market doubts about the Fed's independence, the weakening of the US dollar index, and the interest - rate cut expectation support the rise of precious metal prices. Technically, gold prices face pressure at the previous high, while silver prices are expected to be stronger in the short term [3][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 785.12 | 11.72 | 1.52 | 136691 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 781.70 | 4.87 | 0.63 | 27326 | 201542 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3516.10 | 98.90 | 2.89 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9386 | 194 | 2.11 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9365 | 54 | 0.58 | 409046 | 3444504 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 40.75 | 1.87 | 4.81 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices rose last week. The US July PCE data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, pushing up gold and silver prices. COMEX gold futures neared the historical high, and silver prices hit a 14 - year high [3][6][7]. - The US economy shows resilience, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is increasing due to Trump's pressure. Many Fed officials support interest - rate cuts, and the market expects an over 86% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in September [3][7]. - Doubts about the Fed's independence, the weakening of the US dollar index, and the interest - rate cut expectation support the rise of precious metal prices. Technically, gold prices face pressure at the previous high, and short - term silver prices are expected to be stronger [3][7]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The annualized revised quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US Q2 real GDP was 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The annualized revised quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the Q2 core PCE price index was 2.5%, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6% [10]. - The US July PCE price index was 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value; the month - on - month growth was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous 0.3%. The US July core PCE price index rose 2.9% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, in line with expectations [10]. - US personal spending in July 2025 increased 0.5% month - on - month to $20.802 trillion, accelerating from the revised 0.4% in June and in line with market expectations [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000, and the number of continued claims dropped to 1.954 million, both lower than expected [10]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 29, 2025, the total gold holdings of ETFs were 977.68 tons, an increase of 20.91 tons from last week; the silver holdings of ishare were 15310.00 tons, an increase of 21.18 tons from last week [11]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: For gold futures on August 26, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 275767, non - commercial short positions were 61456, and non - commercial net long positions were 214311, an increase of 1721 from last week. For silver futures on the same day, non - commercial long positions were 68227, non - commercial short positions were 21761, and non - commercial net long positions were 46466, a decrease of 83 from last week [14].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，利好金价，关注震 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 荡区间技术压力 | | 铜 | 2510 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 短线看强 | 海外降息预期升温，国内临近旺 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 季，产业支撑增强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been supported by rising expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and political uncertainties, with prices breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - From August 25 to August 29, gold prices increased, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.86% to close at $3,516.10 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) saw a weekly increase of 1.47%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) surged by 8.38% [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Inflation Concerns - U.S. economic data released in August was disappointing, raising concerns about stagflation [1] - The U.S. July CPI remained flat at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3% and marking the highest level since February [1] - The U.S. July PPI surged to 3.3%, the highest level since February, significantly above the expected 2.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the largest since June 2022 [1] - The overall PCE price index for July increased by 2.6%, meeting expectations, while the core PCE price index rose to 2.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from June, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts from a U.S. bank predict that gold prices will continue to rise, potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by the first half of 2026 [1] - The analysts noted that increasing inflation and potential interest rate cuts create a favorable environment for dollar depreciation, which is likely to drive up gold prices [1]

2025 年 9 月 1 日 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 镍价区间震荡 警惕技术性回撤 核心观点及策略 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，报告期内，特朗普罢免美联储理事库克，并表示降 息派将在联储获得多数席位，市场担心联储独立性缺失。但 现阶段联储的降息预期与市场基本相符，并未出现明显加速 征兆，商品价格反响有限。通胀数据符合预期，美联储释放 鸽派信号，沃勒讲话提振降息预期。 ⚫ 基本面：印尼能矿部早期通过了 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Insights - The strong upward trend in spot silver prices is approaching $40 per ounce, with a potential breakout imminent [1] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from solar panel applications, is supporting its price, leading to increased investments in silver-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [1] - August marked the seventh consecutive month of expansion for these silver ETFs, the longest continuous inflow since 2020 [1] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold remains a key hedge against short-term global policy fluctuations and growing skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's credibility [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could reach $3,675 per ounce by the end of the year, with a potential rise to $4,000 per ounce by early next year [1] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, particularly following President Trump's attempt to remove a Fed governor, which could act as a strong bullish catalyst for gold prices [1] Group 3: Related Companies in Gold and Silver - Key companies in the gold industry include Zijin Mining (601899)(02899), Shandong Gold (600547)(01787), and Zhaojin Mining (01818) [2] - In the silver sector, China Silver Group (00815) reported a revenue of RMB 2.33 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with a profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 54.91 million, up 167.13% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE zinc changed from rising to falling. Macroscopically, the market digested Powell's dovish speech, and the focus shifted to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The risk appetite declined, dragging down the prices of risk assets. However, the PCE data in July met expectations, strengthening the expectation of an interest rate cut in September, and the US dollar declined. China's PMI in August improved slightly month - on - month but remained below the boom - bust line. Fundamentally, the processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates in September remained stable month - on - month, and those for imported ores continued to rise rapidly. Refinery maintenance in September will reduce the monthly supply of refined zinc by more than 8,000 tons, and the high import loss limits the import supplement, so the supply - side pressure eases. On the demand side, due to transportation control in the north, galvanizing enterprises have inventory backlogs and may reduce production or stop work. The consumption of die - casting zinc alloys and zinc oxide has not improved significantly. Social inventories are accumulating seasonally, but the accumulation is expected to end soon. Overseas, large traders are still in the process of picking up and transferring goods, and LME inventories continue to decline, providing support. Overall, the market risk preference switches frequently, and the macro situation is difficult to provide a trend - setting guide. The refinery maintenance eases the supply pressure, and there is an expectation of marginal improvement in consumption, which limits the downside space of zinc prices. However, the continuous inventory accumulation also dampens the enthusiasm of bulls. Therefore, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly operate in a low - level oscillation pattern, waiting for the gradual improvement of the consumption side [3][9][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From August 22 to 29, the price of SHFE zinc decreased by 135 yuan/ton to 22,140 yuan/ton; the price of LME zinc increased by 8.5 US dollars/ton to 2,814 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.07 to 7.87; the inventory of SHFE increased by 8,142 tons to 85,980 tons; the inventory of LME decreased by 11,575 tons to 56,500 tons; the social inventory decreased by 13,200 tons to 103,700 tons; the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of SHFE zinc ZN2510 failed to continue rising last week, with the center of gravity moving slightly lower, mainly dragged down by concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the political situation in France, and the continuous inventory accumulation in China. It finally closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.61%. LME zinc maintained a sideways oscillation under the influence of the cooling of market risk preference and the continuous decline of LME inventories, and finally closed at 2,814 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.3%. In the spot market, downstream buyers negotiated prices at low points during the week, but the purchasing sentiment weakened on Friday, and the spot quotation changed from a small premium to a small discount [5][6]. 3.3 Industry News - In September, the average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates remained flat month - on - month at 3,950 yuan/metal ton, and the average processing fee for imported zinc concentrates increased by 14.71 US dollars/dry ton to 70.68 US dollars/dry ton. From January to June 2025, the global zinc market had a surplus of 47,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 246,000 tons in the same period last year. The global refined zinc production from January to June was 6.644 million tons, and the consumption was 6.597 million tons [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US consumer confidence index dropped to a 3 - month low, and inflation data reinforced the Fed's possible rate - cut expectation next month, making the US dollar index weak and global risk appetite cool. Domestically, China's August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.4 but stayed below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. With the extension of the tariff truce and increased US easing expectations, domestic risk appetite has risen in the short term. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a marginal increase in short - term macro - upward drivers. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation [3]. - For assets, the stock index is short - term shock - strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term high - level shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is advised; among commodity sectors, black is short - term shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is needed; non - ferrous is short - term shock - strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is required; precious metals are short - term high - level shock - strong, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: US consumer confidence decline and inflation data strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, weakening the US dollar index and cooling global risk appetite [3]. - Domestic: China's August manufacturing PMI improved slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce service consumption policies. Sino - US tariff truce extension and US easing expectations reduce external risks and increase domestic easing expectations, raising domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade and domestic policy implementation [3]. - Asset Recommendations: Stock index - short - term shock - strong, cautious long; treasury bonds - short - term high - level shock, cautious waiting; black - short - term shock, cautious waiting; non - ferrous - short - term shock - strong, cautious long; energy and chemicals - short - term shock, cautious waiting; precious metals - short - term high - level shock - strong, cautious long [3]. Stock Index - Driven by battery, small metals, and liquor sectors, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's August manufacturing PMI improved but was below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption will be introduced. Sino - US tariff truce extension and US easing expectations reduce external risks and increase domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. Black Metals Steel - Last Friday, the steel futures and spot markets were weak, with low trading volumes. The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" increases the expectation of steel production cuts. Currently, the fundamentals are weak, with inventory increasing and consumption of some varieties falling. Due to electric - furnace steel复产, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly due to northern restrictions. In early September, northern restrictions may further intensify. The steel market may rebound in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices were weak. High steel mill profits led to high daily hot - metal production, but northern restrictions in the coming week made steel mills cautious in purchasing. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 90.8 tons, and arrivals decreased by 83.3 tons. Mainstream Australian powder supply was stable, but traders were reluctant to sell. Iron ore port inventory decreased slightly. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Last Friday, silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices were weak. With the increase in steel production, ferroalloy demand was okay. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the north was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5770 - 5820 yuan/ton. Inner Mongolia's production was stable, with minor fluctuations. New production capacity may increase daily output by 500 - 800 tons in the future. The national silicon manganese enterprise开工 rate was 46.37%, up 0.62%, and daily output was 30170 tons, up 590 tons. Manganese ore prices were weak. Silicon iron was in a weak supply - demand balance, with stable cost support. The national silicon iron enterprise开工 rate was 36.18%, up 1.86%, and daily output was 16125 tons, up 3.43% (535 tons). Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Other Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Last week, the soda ash futures contract fluctuated. Supply decreased week - on - week, and new capacity will increase supply pressure. Demand was stable week - on - week, but downstream demand was weak. Profits decreased week - on - week and were in a loss state. Soda ash has a high - supply, high - inventory, and weak - demand pattern, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. - **Glass**: Last week, the glass futures contract fluctuated. Supply increased slightly, with stable production, increased开工 rate, and more production lines in operation. Demand was stable, with weak real - estate demand but increased downstream orders in mid - August. Profits increased slightly. Glass is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macroscopically, Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook led to a dollar decline. The US PCE inflation was in line with expectations, and a September rate cut is likely. However, domestic copper demand will weaken marginally, and the strong copper price may not last [9][10]. Aluminum - Last Friday, the aluminum closing price dropped by 10 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest. Aluminum inventory reached 620,000 tons, exceeding expectations. LME aluminum inventory was stable at a neutral level. In the medium term, the aluminum price increase is limited, and in the short term, it will fluctuate due to the peak - season expectation [10]. Aluminum Alloy - Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing the production cost of recycled aluminum plants. It is the off - season, with weak demand. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, but the upside is limited [10]. Tin - On the supply side, the combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. Some Yunnan smelters were under maintenance, and the tin ore supply was tight but will ease. African tin ore imports declined in July. On the demand side, the terminal demand was weak, with a decline in new photovoltaic installations and related industries. This week, the inventory decreased by 117 tons to 9161 tons. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weak demand [11]. Lithium Carbonate - As of August 28, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, down 0.6%, with a 49.35%开工 rate. Lithium mica production decreased, while lithium spodumene production increased. The August monthly production was 85,240 tons, up 5%. The Australian lithium spodumene concentrate CIF price dropped by 7.1%. Lithium carbonate production reached a new high in August, and the profit of lithium spodumene smelting compensated for the decrease in lithium mica. There are still disturbances regarding the reserve verification report of Yichun mining enterprises before the end of September. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon - The latest weekly production was 93,954 tons, up 7.0%. The number of open furnaces increased by 12 to 309, with an opening rate of 38%. Production increased in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu. The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, and there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. The anti - involution drive weakened, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [12]. Polysilicon - The August production is estimated to be about 1.28 million tons, and the September production plan may increase. There are rumors of a slight production cut in September, but the actual implementation needs to be observed. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells were stable, and the component procurement bid price increased, but the market mainstream price did not follow. The latest weekly inventory was 268,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 5,000 tons. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 340 to 6,880. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The anti - involution drive weakened, and the price is expected to turn weak in a fluctuating manner [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The probability of a short - term缓解 of the Russia - Ukraine situation is low, and the oil price rose slightly due to the risk of reduced Russian supply. Later, the North Sea spot benchmark and discount decreased, and the C - structure deepened. There is still short - term spot buying support, but the seasonal weakening of demand after September may lead to accelerated oversupply. The medium - and long - term bearish expectation of the oil price is strong. Attention should be paid to the OPEC production decision on September 7 and the rate - cut path in September [14][15]. Asphalt - The oil price change was limited, and the asphalt price was stable under cost support. The asphalt spot market was weak, and the basis decreased slightly. The social inventory did not decrease significantly, and the factory inventory decreased slightly. Profits recovered, and the开工 rate increased significantly. In the future, the oil price may decline due to OPEC+ production increases. With limited inventory reduction, the asphalt market may remain weakly fluctuating in the short term [15]. PX - The PX price rose due to the Zhejiang Petrochemical year - end maintenance plan but did not break through further. The PTA开工 rate is currently low but may increase. PX is in a tight supply situation. The PXN spread decreased to $255, and the PX foreign market price rebounded to $849. The PX market will fluctuate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [15]. PTA - Currently, the PTA load decreased slightly, and the high basis caused by the previous spot shortage has weakened. The processing fee has increased, and there are expectations of supply recovery. The demand growth has slowed, and the downstream开工 rate is 89.8%. PTA will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand [15]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory decreased slightly to 500,000 tons. The load of syngas - based plants is high, with limited room for further increase. The impact of the petrochemical industry capacity adjustment on ethylene glycol is limited. The long - term anti - involution logic is not highly priced. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to the downstream开工 recovery and crude oil cost fluctuations [16]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price decreased slightly due to the sector - wide decline. Terminal orders increased seasonally, and the short - fiber开工 rate rebounded slightly. The short - fiber inventory increased slightly. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders. It is recommended to go short on the short - fiber in the medium term following the polyester sector [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals increased the supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window due to the port price decline supported the spot price. The planned restart of MTO plants and the upcoming traditional downstream peak season indicate a marginal improvement in the methanol fundamentals. However, the oversupply situation remains, and high inventory suppresses the price. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. PP - The PP plant开工 rate increased, and new capacity was put into operation, resulting in a new high in weekly supply. The downstream开工 rate increased slightly, but the demand was weak. Although there is policy support, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. LLDPE - Current maintenance has relieved the supply pressure. Downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the inventory has decreased. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. However, as the maintenance ends and supply returns, the pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand. The LLDPE price is expected to fluctuate [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectation of new - crop US soybeans in August, the historical yield estimate has been revised. Recently, the export sales data improved due to Sino - US soybean trade negotiation news, and the net long position of CBOT soybean funds increased. With the upcoming harvest of US soybeans, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not optimistic. The pressure of concentrated listing is expected to be better than in previous years, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [18][19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The CBOT soybean futures price may be under pressure in the short term. Domestically, the increase in imported soybean rotation and the high - level procurement of oilseeds in the third quarter lead to a large inventory pressure. The risk of near - month/spot contracts has not subsided, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term. Rapeseed meal has a large high - inventory circulation pressure, but the low rapeseed inventory and few far - month purchases provide an upward - fluctuation basis [19]. Oils - Southeast Asian palm oil is in the peak production season. Exports are limited by the closure of the Indian low - tax festival stocking window and the substitution impact of international soybean oil. It is expected that Indonesia's low inventory will recover, and Malaysia's inventory pressure will increase. The price difference between international oilseeds and crude oil is under pressure, limiting the overall boost to oils. It is expected that domestic palm oil will be under pressure due to the weakening cost, while soybean and rapeseed oils have increased supply and demand, sufficient inventory, and a low - valued market may be repaired relative to palm oil [19]. Corn - In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn increases, and the main futures price has entered the range of last year's opening price. There is no pressure of concentrated arrivals as in last year, the carry - over inventory is low, and there is still a risk of excessive rainfall in the main production areas. Although the planting cost has decreased with the decline in land - leasing costs, under the policy atmosphere of stabilizing the price of important agricultural products and increasing farmers' income, it is unlikely to break through last year's range [19]. Pigs - At the end of August, the reduction in enterprise pig sales drove up the pig price, with an unexpected increase. The official has proposed the core regulation direction of "reducing weight, stabilizing production capacity, and restricting secondary fattening" to prevent large price fluctuations. The early - August sales and weight reduction have buffered some pressure, and some local areas have started purchasing and storage. The market has a certain willingness to support the price at low levels. The pig price in September should not be overly pessimistic [20].

在此背景下，华尔街齐声看好金价行情。 近期美联储的讲话及美国经济数据不断强化美联储9月的降息预期，为金价的上涨提供支撑。另外，特朗普与美联储官员的争端也进一步驱使避险资金从 美元转向黄金，从而推升金价。 据最新的CME"美联储观察"数据：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为12.6%，降息25个基点的概率为87.4%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为5.6%，累计 降息25个基点的概率为45.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为48.6%。 9月1日，国际现货黄金高开，一度向上触及3450美元/盎司。 在上周Kitco新闻的周度黄金调查中，华尔街分析师展现出空前的乐观态度，14位参与者中86%预计下周金价将继续上涨，无一人看跌，剩余14%认为将横 盘整理。 过去几天， 金价持续上涨，国际现货黄金价格在一周内涨超80美元/盎司，创下近四个月新高，日线录得四连阳，再度成为全球投资者瞩目的焦点。 资产策略国际公司总裁里奇·切坎觉得黄金还会上涨，其认为市场对美联储9月降息超过87%的预期将推动金价续升，尤其在突破3400美元后，尽管可能有 获利回吐，但特朗普与美联储官员的争端将进一步驱使资金从美元转向黄金作为避险资产。 | ( ...

值得一提的是，美联储官员们还在密集释放鸽派信号，持续推升降息预期。当地时间8月28日，作为下任美联储主席热门 人选之一的美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在演讲中表态，支持9月份降息25个基点，并预计未来三个月到六个月还会进一步降 息。美国旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利日前也暗示，美联储决策者将很快宣布降息。 从内部因素来看，今年以来，我国经济平稳运行。在创新引领下，新动能成长壮大，高质量发展扎实推进，国民经济保持 稳中有进的发展态势。这对人民币汇率起到重要支撑作用。 ■刘琪 8月份以来，人民币对美元汇率在波动中走升，尤其是8月下旬以来，上涨势头尤为强劲。 Wind数据显示，8月份，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率涨幅分别为0.83%、1.21%。其中，8月29日盘中，在岸、离岸人民 币对美元汇率最高分别升至7.1260、7.1155，均创2024年11月7日以来新高。不仅如此，8月29日，人民币对美元汇率中间价上 调33个基点至7.1030，是去年11月7日以来的峰值。 笔者认为，近期人民币对美元汇率升值，缘于内外部因素的共同推动。 从外部因素来看，当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示："由于政策 ...