Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2,2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] 2) Core View - The zinc market is in a sideways oscillation state [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 23,035 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,071.5 dollars/ton, up 1.20% [1] - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 86,320 lots, a decrease of 17,545 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 13,235 lots, a decrease of 7,726 lots. The open interest of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 83,725 lots, an increase of 2,951 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 227,012 lots, a decrease of 395 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -21.57 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.1 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventories**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 45,949 tons, a decrease of 1,920 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 99,400 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons [1] [News] - Trump stated that the next Fed Chair must be a "super - dove" and will soon announce the candidate, believing the mortgage rate will further decline and that the new chair should consult with him on interest rate setting [2] - US inflation slowed more than expected in November, with the core CPI rising 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since 2021. Despite data noise and technical interference, the cooling inflation trend provides hope for the market and strengthens the discussion on future interest rate cuts [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, US CPI and core CPI in November dropped to 2.7% and 2.6% year - on - year, far lower than market expectations, but data credibility is questionable. The market reacted positively, with expectations of Fed rate cuts. The ECB maintained rates and was vague on easing [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market showed a structured rise with reduced trading volume, and the bond market was also divided. The short - term A - share market is expected to be volatile and weak, and the bond market's main trend is unclear [3]. - For precious metals, gold and silver prices may face adjustment risks, and platinum and palladium should not be chased at high prices due to regulatory measures and data uncertainties [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term due to mild inflation data and tight fundamentals [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise steadily due to positive macro factors and good fundamentals [8]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weak and volatile as the supply remains abundant [10]. - Cast aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to cost support [11]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue oscillating as there is support from inventory reduction but also pressure from market uncertainties [12]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation due to low inventory and cost support [14]. - Tin prices' upward momentum is weakening, and chasing high prices should be cautious [15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to be strong and volatile as supply and demand show marginal improvement [17]. - Steel prices are expected to follow a short - term rebound but maintain an oscillating pattern [19]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate as the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains [20]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound in the short term due to policy stimulation [21]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as US soybeans continue to decline and the supply in China is sufficient [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be weak and oscillating as Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October and market factors are complex [24]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US November CPI and core CPI were 2.7% and 2.6% year - on - year, lower than expected. The data's credibility is in doubt. The market expects Fed rate cuts. The ECB maintained rates and didn't give clear easing guidance [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rose with reduced volume, showing a structured market. The bond market was divided. The short - term A - share market is expected to be volatile and weak, and the bond market's main trend is unclear [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices had a short - term rise and then a fall after the US CPI data release, facing increased adjustment risks. Platinum and palladium prices continued to rise, but the Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted platinum futures' daily opening positions, so chasing high prices is not recommended [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper's main contract oscillated upward, and LME copper oscillated around $11,700. Mild inflation data is beneficial for a dovish stance. Fundamentally, mine restarts are slow, and inventories are low. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 21,955 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. LME aluminum closed at $2,917/ton, up 0.38%. US inflation data boosted rate - cut expectations, and the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory verified year - end consumption resilience. Aluminum prices are expected to rise steadily [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, alumina futures' main contract closed at 2,553 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The supply is abundant with inventory flowing into the market and imports arriving. Alumina prices are expected to be weak and volatile [9][10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, cast aluminum alloy futures' main contract closed at 21,110 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. At the end of the year, both supply and demand decreased. Cast aluminum prices are supported by the cost of scrap aluminum and are expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc's main contract oscillated narrowly. The US CPI data had a limited impact. Consumption showed resilience, and social inventory declined. However, LME had continuous small - volume warehousing. Zinc prices are expected to continue oscillating [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead's main contract oscillated narrowly. The supply side had a mixed situation of reduction and resumption. The terminal was in the off - season, but low inventory and cost support are expected to keep lead prices oscillating narrowly [13][14]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin's main contract oscillated strongly at night. The supply - side disturbance support weakened, and downstream acceptance of high - priced tin was under pressure. Tin prices' upward momentum is expected to weaken [15]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon oscillated strongly. The supply side is generally stable, and the demand side shows some changes. Social inventory rose slightly. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be strong and volatile [16][17]. 3.11 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The output and apparent demand of the five major steel products were slightly adjusted, and inventory continued to decline. Steel prices are expected to follow a short - term rebound but maintain an oscillating pattern [18][19]. 3.12 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated upward. The supply was strong with high overseas shipments and port inventory accumulation, while the demand was weak as steel mills cut production. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [20]. 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. Policy stimulation strengthened the bottom support. Coking enterprises' costs increased, and the supply was generally loose. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound in the short term [21]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends. US soybeans continued to decline, and the supply in China was sufficient. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate [22][23]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm oil futures showed a mixed performance. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October due to increased domestic consumption. Palm oil prices are expected to be weak and oscillating [24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report The report offers comprehensive analysis and forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each commodity, providing investors with reference for trading decisions [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend strength of 0. Gold prices are affected by factors such as inflation data and central bank policies [2][5]. - **Silver**: Adjusting at a high level, trend strength is 0. Silver prices are in a high - level adjustment phase [2][5]. - **Platinum**: ETFs are continuously flowing in, and prices are oscillating upwards, trend strength is 1 [2][28]. - **Palladium**: Successfully breaking through the previous high, with strong upward momentum, trend strength is 1 [2][28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Both domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing, providing support for prices, trend strength is 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Moving sideways in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction is supporting prices, trend strength is 0 [2][17]. - **Tin**: Supply is facing new disruptions, trend strength is 1 [2][20]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating within a range, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Alumina**: Slightly declining, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Nickel**: The surplus is undergoing a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks, trend strength is 0 [2][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level, trend strength is 0 [2][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but some products are affected by it. For example, asphalt is in a low - level oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][78]. - **PTA**: Cost support is relatively strong, with a 4500 - 4800 range operation suggested, trend strength is 1 [2][63][69]. - **MEG**: In a range - bound market, trend strength is 1 [2][63][69]. - **Rubber**: Widely oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][70]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward trend is slowing down, trend strength is 0 [2][74]. - **LLDPE**: Supply elasticity is limited, and valuation continues to be under pressure, trend strength is 0 [2][92]. - **PP**: Factory warehouse warrants are cancelled, and the market is moving sideways, trend strength is 0 [2][95]. - **Caustic Soda**: There will still be pressure in the later stage, trend strength is 0 [2][98]. - **Paper Pulp**: Widely oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][101]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, trend strength is 0 [2][108]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating with support, trend strength is 0 [2][111]. - **Urea**: Oscillating with support, trend strength is 0 [2][115]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, trend strength is 0 [2][119]. - **LPG**: Strong in the short - term but under pressure in the long - term, trend strength is 0 [2][123]. - **Propylene**: Narrowly adjusting in the short - term, trend strength is 0 [2][124]. - **PVC**: The rebound is difficult to sustain, trend strength is 0 [2][132]. - **Fuel Oil**: Consolidating in the short - term with support below, trend strength is 0 [2][135]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Narrowly oscillating, with the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrowing, trend strength is 0 [2][136]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May rebound in the short - term and is searching for a bottom while oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][160]. - **Soybean Oil**: Weak performance of US soybeans, and it is difficult for soybean oil to stabilize, trend strength is 0 [2][160]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating at a low level, trend strength is 0 [2][166]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][166]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, trend strength is 0 [2][169]. - **Sugar**: Weakly operating, trend strength is - 1 [2][173]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating with an upward bias, attention should be paid to downstream demand, trend strength is 0 [2][69][178]. - **Eggs**: Maintaining an oscillating trend, trend strength is 0 [2][184]. - **Hogs**: The peak demand during the Winter Solstice has passed, trend strength is - 1 [2][186]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to oil mill purchases, trend strength is 0 [2][192]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: In an oscillating market, trend strength is 0 [2][138]. Fibers - **Short Fiber**: Oscillating at a low level in the short - term and facing pressure in the medium - term, trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating at a low level in the short - term and facing pressure in the medium - term, trend strength is 0 [2][148]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach, trend strength is 0 [2][151]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating in the short - term, trend strength is 0 [2][156].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-19 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 煤焦：煤焦上行高度在春节前我们认为更多的是表现为弱反弹，近期价格出现大幅上涨的原 因并不是基于自身基本面，反而是受到消息面的影响居多，就其延续性我们认为相对存疑。 从驱动角度来看，近期市场交易逻辑主要集中在以下几个环节去兑现：其一、临近交割多空 博弈的行情是再度上演；其二、市场再度提及对于煤炭反内卷的题材，年底本身煤矿在完成 全年生产任务之后产量向上修复高度有限，主焦煤的紧缺导致预期和现实再度共振，加大价 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 格的波动弹性；其三、后续进口煤有可能发生偏紧扰动。综上，基于基本面近期所呈现出的 供需双弱的格局，在冬储补库行情驱动较为有限的背景下，我们认为情绪端的影响将更容易 放大价格的波动弹性，前期 15 反套可以考虑陆续止盈离场。 提醒：关注指数最高为★★★★ 相关品种详细研报，见下方。 本期内容提供：研究所 主编： 林小春 2025-12-19 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美国 11 月核心 CPI 同比创 2021 年以来最低水平，经济学家表示怀疑 观点分享： 周四 ...

北京时间周四晚间，四家欧洲地区的中央银行密集公布利率决议，堪称一场"欧洲货币政策盛宴"，结果 也如市场所预期那样：欧洲央行、挪威央行和瑞典央行维持基准利率不变，而英国央行如预期宣布降 息。 但其中透露出一些关于2026年欧洲货币政策前景的重要细节与线索。以下是四个关键要点。 英国央行投票决定降息，但只是勉强通过 市场原以为英国央行降息已成定局，利率期货市场显示出降息的概率几乎高达98%。但将利率下调25个 基点的投票结果，仅以最微弱优势通过：即5比4。多位英国央行货币政策制定者呼吁转向谨慎立场，称 通胀仍存在持续的扩张风险。 英国央行货币政策委员会成员梅根·格林(Meghan Greene)是四位反对降息者之一，她认为有迹象表明英 国服务业通胀存在显著飙升风险，而核心商品通胀仍处于新冠疫情前的水平。 来自巴克莱银行的英国市场首席经济学家杰克·米宁(Jack Meaning)在英国央行公布利率决议后表示，该 央行实施了一次"偏鹰派的降息举措"，并补充称未来降息的门槛可能会比现在高得多。 欧洲央行的预测似乎为按兵不动提供了理由 欧洲央行最新预测似乎支持了欧洲央行官员们的普遍观点——他们表示利率处于"良好水平"，与 ...

（原标题：英国央行宣布降息25个基点！多位经济学家预计：明年仍有降息空间） 12月18日，英国央行宣布下调基准利率（"银行利率"）25个基点。 这是英国央行年内第四次降息，也是自2024年8月降息周期开启以来第六次降息。基准利率从去年最高 5.25%降至当前的3.75%。对于明年，多位经济学家预测，英国央行仍有较大降息空间。 英国央行基准利率走势（2003年至今） 为什么降息？ 根据英国央行发布的声明，该国通胀指标——消费物价指数（CPI）自上次会议以来已下降至3.2%。尽 管高于2%目标水平，但预计短期内将更快回落。通胀放缓反映出此前限制性货币政策已经产生效果， 并且与经济增长放缓和劳动力市场空间增加的证据相符。此外，工资增长和服务价格通胀持续放缓。 英国央行认为，与上次会议相比，通胀持续的风险有所减弱，而需求疲软带来的中期风险依然存在。货 币政策旨在确保中期CPI通胀在2%内可持续稳定，因此需要在实现通胀目标时平衡风险。 对于未来，货币政策进一步宽松的程度将取决于通胀前景的演变。自2024年8月以来，银行利率下调了 150个基点，政策的限制性有所下降。根据现有证据，银行利率很可能继续以渐进的下降轨迹走下去 ...

Market Overview - The US CPI unexpectedly cooled, strengthening rate cut trades, and combined with Micron's earnings report, the S&P 500 rose nearly 0.8%, ending a four-day decline [1] - The tech giants led the gains, with Tesla up 3.45% and Micron soaring approximately 12% [1] - European stocks reached a record closing high [1] Economic Indicators - The US dollar initially fell before rising slightly, while the Chinese yuan strengthened again, approaching 7.03 after the US CPI report [2] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping 4.5 basis points to near 4.1% [3] Key Developments - Trump stated that the next Federal Reserve chair must be a "super dove" and will soon announce a candidate [6] - The US core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in November, the lowest since 2021, although economists suspect data distortion due to the government shutdown [6][18] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 224,000, reversing a previous surge [7] International Developments - Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasuries by over $10 billion in October, while China reduced its holdings [19] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, indicating that the rate cut cycle may be ending [19][21] - The Bank of England made a "hawkish" rate cut of 25 basis points, with a close 5-4 vote, indicating future easing decisions will be more challenging [20] Company News - Micron's CEO stated that the company has sold out its HBM capacity for 2026 and is signing unprecedented long-term contracts [30] - OpenAI released GPT-5.2-Codex, enhancing its AI programming capabilities and is exploring significant new financing options [10][23] - Trump's media group surged over 40% after announcing plans to acquire a fusion energy company, TAE Technologies, with a valuation exceeding $6 billion [12][24] Industry Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts that data center capital expenditures will exceed 50% growth next year, driven by AI-related stocks [25] - The AI sector is experiencing a significant transition towards intelligent agents, with a notable increase in token usage for AI models [34] - The Chinese government is implementing export license management for steel products, marking a significant regulatory shift [26]

（文章来源：新华财经） 该行并未排除未来进一步降息的可能性，但表示将"评估后续调整的时机"。声明称，委员会将审慎评估 将于明年1月生效的增税和关税上调对通胀的影响，但预计对物价的影响"将是暂时的，且未必呈线性关 系"。由于服务业通胀放缓速度较预期更为渐进，该行上调了对2025年第四季度及2026年上半年的通胀 预测，但仍预计通胀将在明年第三季度达到3%的目标，同时指出通胀前景的风险仍偏向上升。 新华财经北京12月19日电当地时间周四，墨西哥央行宣布降息，同时暗示在进一步降息前可能暂停行 动。货币政策委员会以4比1的投票结果，将基准利率下调25个基点至7%，为三年半以来最低水平。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that currency volatility is expected to continue decreasing in the upcoming year due to clear central bank policy paths [1][2] - The indicator measuring the one-month volatility of G10 currencies has dropped to 5.81%, the lowest since 2022 [1][2] - The one-month volatility rates for the British pound and euro have reached their lowest levels since 2014 and July 2024, respectively [1][2] Group 2 - MacroHive forex strategists indicate that global factors influencing currency movements are converging, suggesting market expectations of "low near-term risks" [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is preparing for further interest rate cuts next year, with the Bank of England likely to follow suit [1][2] - Central banks in Sweden, Norway, and Switzerland are expected to maintain interest rates for an extended period, while the Bank of Japan may be one of the few exceptions considering tightening monetary policy [1][2]

记者丨曾静娇 编辑丨刘雪莹 美东时间周四，美股三大指数集体高开，科技股普涨，美光科技股价狂飙，热门中概股多数上 涨，黄金白银短线走低。消息面上，美国11月CPI数据爆冷。 截至北京时间23:14，道琼斯指数涨0.51%，标普500指数涨0.78%，纳斯达克综合指数涨 1.07%。 科技股普涨 ，美光科技狂飙，盘前涨幅最高达16% ；闪迪大涨近7%，特斯拉涨超2%，英伟 达、谷歌涨超1%。 消息面上，据财联社报道，美光科技第二财季营收展望为183亿至191亿美元，公司的最新业绩 及业绩指引均 大幅超出分析师预期 。今年以来，存储芯片需求居高不下推动美光股价一路走 高， 年内涨幅已高达约160%。 | W | 美光科技(MICRON TECHNOLOG | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | MU.O | | | | | 249.180 | 量 2680.6万 股本 | 11.24亿 市盈 | 32.8 力得 | | | | | | 型 ■ | | | 23.660 10.49% | 换 2.38% | 市值 2801亿 市净 | 4.76 | | | 盘中 ▼ 五 ...