财经连环话 . 一图看懂财经万象。 以下文章来源于财经连环话 ，作者王者归来的轱辘慧 家人们，慧慧心里苦啊！ 本来以为躲过了大A的震荡，避开了美股的过山车，买了点黄金当"定海神针"。 结果上周五一看： 美股跌！比特币跌！连浓眉大眼的黄金也暴跌 2%！ 这感觉就像：我想躲雨跑进了亭子，结果亭子漏水了！ 这是为啥？难道黄金不避险了？ NO！NO！NO！ 且听慧慧慢慢说，这背后的真相，其实是市场缺钱了，也就是传说中的—— "流动性紧张" 意思就是： 现在它俩是一根绳上的蚂蚱。 专家说了，这是因为大家都在担心AI泡沫（连那个做空的大佬Michael Burry都出手了），吓得赶紧把能变现的都变现了。 那黄金还能拿吗？ 这里有三个 轱辘慧独家锦囊 ，收好不谢： 给大伙打个最通俗的比方： 假如你在股市里亏惨了，或者你的比特币要爆仓了，急需现金去补窟窿（追加保证金）。 这时候，你手里的烂股票卖不掉或者卖了也不够。 你咋办？ 你只能把你手里 最值钱、还是赚着钱 的东西卖了换现金救急！ 对！那个被卖掉的"倒霉蛋"，就是黄金！ 所以，大家都在卖黄金换现金，金 价自然就哗啦啦往下掉。 数据是不会说谎的： 历史上黄金和美股通常是跷跷 ...

首先我们要明确，上周五的回调，并非仅仅是A股，而是全球都在调整，和老美关系密切的日韩，更是跌幅夸张，韩国的综指跌幅超过4%。 最近大A又开始给大家上难度了，尤其是上周五，全球大跌，A股也狠狠回调了一波。 很多人有焦虑上了，"行情是不是结束了"、"熊市又要来了"？ 下面，海星君就和大家一起聊聊最新的行情吧~ | く 気 | 亚太指数 () | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨幅↑ | 污长跌 | | 韩国 KOSPI200 | 540.36 | -4.23% | -23.84 | | KOSPI200 | | | | | 韩国 KOSPI | 3853.26 | -3.79% | -151.59 | | KS11 | | | | | 台湾加权 | 26434.94 | -3.61% | -991.42 | | TWII | | | | | 恒生科技指数 | 5402.26 | -3.09% | -172.33 | | HSTECH | | | | | 日经 225 | 48625.88 | -2.40% | -1198.06 | | N225 | | | ...

Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing a harsh reality check, with notable companies like Robin AI facing bankruptcy despite previous high valuations and significant investor backing [2][3] - The rapid rise and fall of AI startups highlight the challenges of achieving commercial viability in a market that demands quick results and sustainable business models [3][4] Company-Specific Summary - Robin AI, a legal-focused AI startup, recently failed to secure funding and was listed on a bankruptcy website, despite having prominent investors like Google and SoftBank [2] - 澜码科技 (Lanma Technology), another AI company, faced difficulties as its founder reportedly sold personal assets to pay salaries, indicating financial strain [2] Industry Trends - The emergence of generative AI, particularly with the launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT, has led to inflated valuations and heightened expectations for commercial success, but many companies struggle to deliver on these expectations [3] - The AI sector is witnessing a "survival of the fittest" scenario, reminiscent of the internet bubble, where many startups may not survive due to the mismatch between AI spending and practical implementation [4] - The market is beginning to recalibrate valuations for AI-driven companies, indicating a shift towards more rational assessments as the hype surrounding AI technology starts to wane [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant adjustment, influenced by external pressures such as global liquidity tightening and a collective pullback in technology stocks, particularly those related to AI in the US market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 21, the A-share market saw a sharp decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index plunging by 4.02%, indicating a clear downtrend in market sentiment [1]. - The total trading volume reached 1.97 trillion yuan, highlighting a pronounced selling pressure across the market [1]. Group 2: Causes of Adjustment - The current market adjustment is attributed to both external factors and internal pressures, including the tightening of global liquidity and concerns over an "AI bubble" affecting technology stocks [3][4]. - The US non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, which has led to a decrease in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, further impacting global market sentiment [4]. - The decline in lithium carbonate futures has also contributed to the significant drop in the new energy sector [4]. Group 3: Divergent Views on Future Market Direction - There is a consensus on the reasons for the market pullback, but opinions diverge on the future direction. Some brokerages express caution, suggesting that the AI sector in the Asia-Pacific region may face further pressure despite short-term rebounds [5]. - Other brokerages, such as Pacific Securities, indicate that the market has broken through a critical support level, suggesting a mid-term adjustment has begun, but they maintain a long-term bullish outlook [6]. - Optimistic views suggest that the current adjustment presents a good opportunity for future investments, particularly in sectors related to AI applications and advanced manufacturing that align with national policy support [6].

0 二五年 2025 年 11月 24 日 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读: 1、市场回顾与展望:上周市场回落,沪指周跌幅甚至超过４月7日当周。板块方面,电力设备、综 合、基础化工跌幅居前;银行、传媒、食品饮料跌幅最小。行情调整驱动来自于内外两方面。外部来看, 纳指创 4 月来最大三周跌幅。美联储纪要显示,"不愿意 12 月降息"的委员数量超过了"愿意降息"的委 员。市场对美联储 12月降息预期进一步降低。AI 泡沫担忧延续,英伟达财报发布后出现"利好出尽"走 势。谷歌大模型能力超越 OpenAI,AI 产业博弈仍在深化。日本股债汇三杀。比特币走低,全球风险资产 共振回调。国内来看,地缘局势存在不确定性,国内政策面预期偏平,导致行情顺应外部波动而回落。 边际来看,美联储开始发声安抚市场。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周五发出支持降息信号,联邦基金期货 显示的降息概率从低于 30%反弹至 60%以上。周末数字货币已出现反弹。有利于全球风险资产环境改善。 本周继续关注陆续补发的美国经济数据对 12月降息预期的指引。就Ａ股市场而言。国内政策方向对市场 预期的影响依然重要,关注1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine solution proposed by the US is limited, with short - term market risk appetite stabilizing and the US dollar showing a volatile trend [2][15]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is fermenting, the market sentiment is stabilizing, but concerns about the AI bubble remain. The US stock market rebounds, but the technology sector lags in gains [3]. - Although the A - share market has experienced a significant correction, it is expected to stabilize the decline in the future due to the easing of US liquidity expectations, support for AI performance, and China's policy support for the stock market [4]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; oil prices continue to decline; and the prices of some agricultural products are affected by factors such as production volume and policy [5][6]. Summaries by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - New York Fed President Williams said there is room for an interest rate cut in December, and the Russian central bank sold some physical gold reserves. Short - term gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a risk of decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be cautious of the risk of decline in the short - term volatile gold market [12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US is reported to be ready to take action against Venezuela, and the European leaders think the US's Russia - Ukraine peace plan needs improvement. The US - Ukraine Geneva talks are considered "fruitful", but the Russia - Ukraine solution has limited progress, and the US dollar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13][14][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on the December interest rate cut. The US service industry growth accelerated in November, while the manufacturing industry slowed down. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and the US stock market is expected to fluctuate upward after the market volatility decreases [17][18]. - Investment advice: Be less pessimistic about the US stock market at the end of the year, and wait for the market volatility to decrease [19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Trump administration may approve Nvidia's sales of some AI chips to China, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting. The A - share market is expected to stabilize the decline [20][21]. - Investment advice: There may be a small rebound in the short term, but a trend - following opportunity requires more policy changes [22]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 375 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market is affected by factors such as the redemption pressure of structured products and concerns about the stock market rebound. The bond market is expected to turn from volatile to bearish, and short - term short - selling strategies are recommended [23][24]. - Investment advice: The bond market may turn bearish, and short - term short - selling strategies can be considered [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills last week was 2.3344 million tons, and it is expected to slightly decrease this week. The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the cost and supply - demand situation jointly affect the price. - Investment advice: The soybean meal market is currently "supported by cost and suppressed by supply - demand", and continue to pay attention to China's soybean procurement and South American production expectations [26]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US Department of Energy reorganized to prioritize fossil fuels and nuclear energy. From November 1 to 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10.32% month - on - month. - Investment advice: For palm oil, wait and see on the long - short side and consider 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunities; for rapeseed oil, the overall trend is expected to be weakly volatile [27][28][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - In October 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year. Indian sugar mills are gradually starting to crush, and the NFCSF urges the Indian government to raise the minimum sugar selling price. - Investment advice: Do not be optimistic about the downside space of ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar's January contract, and be cautious about short - selling [30][33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October 2025, China's cotton imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while cotton yarn imports increased. The US cotton export sign - up continued to rise. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with an estimated range of 13,300 - 13,800 yuan; be cautiously optimistic in the long term and wait for opportunities to go long on dips [35][39][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In 2025, China's long - product exports to Saudi Arabia almost doubled. In October, the global crude steel production was 143.3 million tons. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile mindset when dealing with steel prices [42][44][46]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch widened. - Investment advice: The price difference is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and band trading is recommended [47][48][49]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn selling progress in Northeast and North China is faster than the same period last year. - Investment advice: Corn prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term. Wait and see for the near - month contracts and do not short them for now [50][52]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vedanta plans to invest $2 billion in Saudi copper and gold resources, and China Non - Ferrous Mining's Qianbixi Southeast Orebody is temporarily shut down. European copper manufacturers warn of a copper shortage. - Investment advice: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Consider going long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [53][55][56]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Two leading silicon wafer companies lowered their quotes. The polysilicon market is affected by factors such as policy and demand. - Investment advice: The futures main contract of polysilicon may operate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range trading opportunities [57][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The shipments of northern silicon enterprises increased. The export of industrial silicon decreased more than expected. - Investment advice: The industrial silicon market may fluctuate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton in the short term. Pay attention to range trading opportunities [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ruitai New Materials plans to jointly invest 200 million yuan in Terui Lianteng. The futures price limit - down due to regulatory measures. - Investment advice: The short - term futures price may face pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies with a light position [62][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Some nickel intermediate product projects in an Indonesian park are expected to reduce production. - Investment advice: Existing short - positions can gradually take profits, and consider going long on dips with a light position. Evaluate the resource contraction in Indonesia in the medium term [66][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Garpenberg mine in Sweden was approved to expand its environmental permit. The LME lead inventory increased. - Investment advice: Take profits at low levels in the short term for the long - short side; wait and see for arbitrage and cross - market trading [68][69][70]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME 0 - 3 zinc premium is high, and the Garpenberg mine in Sweden was approved to expand its environmental permit. - Investment advice: Wait and see on the long - short side; hold long - spread positions for calendar spread arbitrage and short - spread positions for cross - market arbitrage in the short term [71][72]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 21, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 80.41 euros/ton. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [73][74]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. Oil prices continued to decline. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the prospects of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations. Oil prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term [75][76]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The prices of different pulp varieties in the import market showed different trends. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to fluctuate in the future [77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly lowered. - Investment advice: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips is not prominent, and the absolute price mainly follows the fluctuations of polyester raw materials [78][81]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the South China market was stable on November 21. - Investment advice: In the short term, the soda ash market has certain support; in the medium term, adopt a bearish mindset and consider short - selling far - month contracts on rallies [82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased on November 21. - Investment advice: The January contract of float glass is under pressure. Pay attention to the support at 950 yuan/ton and the risk of short - covering rebounds caused by news [83][84].

Core Viewpoint - Investor sentiment is significantly influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical situations, leading to rapid rotation of market hotspots and a likely continuation of a volatile trend in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Sector Recommendations - The market's fluctuating risk appetite may drive investors towards dividend stocks for defensive positioning [1] - Concerns regarding the AI bubble are gradually diminishing following recent market corrections, presenting new allocation opportunities in the technology sector [1] - The effects of "anti-involution" policies are becoming evident, with changes in supply and demand dynamics potentially leading to a sustained rebound in cyclical stocks as commodity prices rise [1]

上周，避险情绪主导全球金融市场，全球主要股市悉数下跌，其中科技股波动幅度显著。在这一传导效 应下，A股市场同样经历调整，上证指数失守3900点。新能源、光伏、电力设备等板块回调明显，银 行、船舶制造、消费等少数概念相对抗跌。对于近期市场的波动，券商研报分析认为，海外"AI泡沫"焦 虑、美联储降息预期回落、资金情绪趋于谨慎等因素共振，引发了全球主要市场联动下挫。在这一背景 下，A股市场也难以完全避免冲击。但支撑本轮中国股市上涨行情的基本面因素并未出现变化。前期热 门主线的估值消化完成后，投资者可积极布局来年春季行情。（上证报） ...

02基金新闻 ...

上周，避险情绪主导全球金融市场，全球主要股市悉数下跌，其中科技股波动幅度显著。在这一传导效 应下，A股市场同样经历调整，上证指数失守3900点。新能源、光伏、电力设备等板块回调明显，银 行、船舶制造、消费等少数概念相对抗跌。 该机构分析称，前期热门主线的成交集中度已出现不同程度的消化，意味着交投情绪降温及风险消化。 交易层面的阻力释放后，若后续产业层面催化剂出现，市场情绪有望再度回暖。 对于近期市场的波动，券商研报分析认为，海外"AI泡沫"焦虑、美联储降息预期回落、资金情绪趋于谨 慎等因素共振，引发了全球主要市场联动下挫。在这一背景下，A股市场也难以完全避免冲击。但支撑 本轮中国股市上涨行情的基本面因素并未出现变化。前期热门主线的估值消化完成后，投资者可积极布 局来年春季行情。 海外市场波动加剧引发A股回调 近期，受美股AI板块高位震荡及海外"AI泡沫"讨论升温影响，A股科技板块同步出现明显调整，拖累主 要指数下行。对于近期市场的回调，机构普遍认为外部扰动是主要诱因。 兴业证券表示，11月以来，受美联储降息预期回落、"AI泡沫"言论影响，全球风险资产跟随美股同步调 整，近期A股与港股的波动随之加剧。中银国际证 ...