投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：4 月期间国内主产区安监环境平稳，山西煤炭产量维持高位，钢联统计的 523 家炼焦煤 矿精煤产量月内持续回升，而进口量虽同比或有小幅下滑，但减量预计有限，焦煤供应压力依然居 高不下。此外，中美贸易摩擦压制黑色金属终端产品出口，叠加地产、基建表现低迷，内需支撑有 限，焦煤中长期需求担忧仍存。供需数据方面，根据钢联统计，截至 5 月 2 日当周，全国 523 家炼 焦煤矿精煤日均产量 80.4 万吨，周环比增 0.7 万吨，连续第 6 周录得正增长，较去年同期产量偏 高 5.7 万吨。进口方面，4 月 21 至 26 日，甘其毛都口岸累计通关车数 3877 车，周环比减少 2329 车。需求方面，5 月 2 日当周，焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量合计 114.41 万吨，周环比增加 0.09 万 吨。综上，焦煤价格持续下挫，且其供应宽松局面并未扭转，基本面整体依然偏空，叠加当前宏观 向上驱 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From August 2017 to January 2020, the credit bond market evolved in four stages under the intertwined influence of Sino - US trade frictions and policy hedging, presenting a pattern of "strengthened safe - haven properties of interest - rate bonds and re - structured risk pricing of credit bonds" [3][21]. - The market logic gradually returned to fundamental verification in the later stage, with external shocks having a diminishing marginal impact. Policy hedging effectiveness, credit repair rhythm, and cross - border capital flows became key variables affecting the market trend [12]. - After the implementation of the 54% tariff policy on April 2, 2025, the core logic of the credit bond market shifted to "safe - haven trading + policy hedging". Short - term high - grade varieties are favored, and in the short - term, safe - haven sentiment will dominate the market. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to economic data and the possible impact of the valuation repair of Chinese dollar - denominated bonds [100][105]. 3. Summary by Directory First Stage: Anticipation Disturbance Period (August 2017 - June 2018) - **Interest Rate Curve Differentiation and Credit Risk Pricing Re - structuring**: The bond market was in a "loose money, tight credit" policy combination. The short - end of the interest - rate bond market benefited from the targeted RRR cut in April 2018, while the long - end was suppressed by factors such as rising international oil prices, Fed rate hikes, and regulatory tightening. Private enterprise default amounts increased, and investors' behaviors diverged. The inability to transform "loose money" into "loose credit" intensified the structural contradictions in the credit bond market [22][24][25]. - **Credit Bond Financing Fluctuations due to Trade Friction Evolution**: Credit bond financing fluctuated. It declined initially due to trade friction concerns and financial risk prevention policies, then rebounded briefly in early 2018 due to liquidity release policies, and finally decreased again after the addition of tariffs and the implementation of the asset management new rules [29][30]. - **Overall Rise in Credit Bond Yields and Widening of Credit Spreads**: Credit bond yields rose overall, and credit spreads widened. Market concerns about credit risks spread from local industries to the whole market, especially in export - oriented industries. Although the targeted RRR cut in April 2018 curbed risk spread, private enterprise default events increased, and the pricing logic of the credit bond market became more complex [36][37]. - **Initial Appearance of Credit Bond Default Pressure with Wide Industry Distribution**: Credit bond defaults and extensions increased slightly. Defaults were no longer concentrated in traditional over - capacity industries but spread to more sectors. Policy uncertainties affected corporate financing efficiency and solvency [42][43]. Second Stage: Policy Hedging Period (July - November 2018) - **Differentiated Efficiency of Interest - Credit Transmission under Policy Hedging**: As Sino - US trade frictions escalated, domestic policies shifted. The central bank's RRR cut pushed short - term interest rates down, but long - term interest rates rebounded due to factors such as local government bond issuance and CPI increase. The "bull - steep" market of interest - rate bonds and the financing repair of credit bonds diverged [48]. - **Industry Financing Differentiation between Trade Pressure and Domestic Demand Hedging**: Different industries' credit bond financing showed a differentiated trend. Export - oriented industries such as commercial trade and light manufacturing saw a decline in net financing, while the public utility industry benefited from domestic demand support and had an increase in net financing [51]. - **Overall Decline in Credit Bond Yields and Narrow - range Fluctuation of Credit Spreads**: After the formal implementation of tariffs, the market's pricing of trade frictions became less sensitive. Credit bond yields declined, and credit spreads fluctuated within a narrow range. Although trade frictions escalated again in September 2018, the bond market reacted calmly. Low - grade industrial bond credit spreads widened, and the impact of domestic policies on the bond market gradually exceeded external shocks [55]. - **Relative Advantage of Non - standard Bonds of Urban Investment Entities after Trade Friction Upgrade**: Credit bond defaults increased, mainly among private enterprises. Non - standard bonds of non - urban investment entities had a significant increase in default cases, while those of urban investment entities were relatively stable, reflecting the positive role of local policy coordination [61][62]. Third Stage: Wide - Credit Verification Period (December 2018 - April 2019) - **"Time Difference" Game between Liquidity Drive and Credit Repair**: The bond market was driven by both the easing of trade frictions and domestic policy loosening. Although the G20 Summit in December 2018 and the central bank's full - scale RRR cut in January 2019 boosted market sentiment, private enterprise credit spreads remained high. The bond market turned bearish in April 2019 as economic fundamentals improved [69]. - **Differentiated Financing between State - owned and Private Enterprises under Tariff Easing and Policy Loosening**: State - owned enterprises benefited from policy loosening and had an increase in net financing, while private enterprises were still affected by the lagged impact of previous tariffs. Their net financing showed a fluctuating trend [72]. - **Credit Bond Yields Oscillated and Industrial Bond Spreads of Different Industries Differentiated**: As trade frictions eased, credit bond yields oscillated, and credit spreads differentiated. The market logic shifted to fundamental verification. Industries such as electrical equipment and chemical industry, which were affected by tariffs, had a slower credit spread repair than the overall market [74][78]. - **Credit Bond Default Situation Remained Flat Year - on - Year with Insufficient Improvement for Private Enterprises**: During the negotiation easing period, the number of credit bond extensions and defaults remained basically the same as the previous stage. Financial institutions preferred high - credit entities, and private enterprises still faced challenges in financing [81]. Fourth Stage: Resonance Period of Liquidity Stratification and Cross - border Capital Pricing (May 2019 - January 2020) - **Dual Pricing Logic of Credit Risk Events and Foreign Capital Safe - haven**: The takeover of Baoshang Bank in May 2019 led to concerns about liquidity stratification. Foreign capital increased its allocation of interest - rate bonds, and the bond market showed a pattern of safe - haven interest - rate bonds and differentiated credit bonds. The bond market was driven by both "safe - haven sentiment" and "foreign capital allocation" [85]. - **Increased Financing of Urban Investment Bonds with Swinging Trade Friction Expectations**: During the liquidity stratification stage, urban investment bond net financing continued to grow. Regulatory policies relaxed the "borrowing new to repay old" restrictions, and the central bank's policies provided a low - cost replacement space for urban investment platforms [88]. - **Overall Decline in Credit Bond Yields with Intensified Structural Differentiation**: Credit bond yields declined overall, but the market showed intensified structural differentiation. Yields of some industries such as electronics and automobiles increased, while those of infrastructure - related industries remained stable. High - grade state - owned enterprise industrial bond credit spreads narrowed, while those of AA + private enterprise industrial bonds widened [90][93]. - **Credit Bond Defaults under the Prolonged Trade Friction**: Under the continuous impact of trade frictions, credit bond defaults increased, mainly due to factors such as the slowdown of the macro - economic environment, the adjustment of corporate profit growth, and the impact on export - oriented enterprises. Non - standard bonds of urban investment platforms had relatively stable repayment performance [96]. Outlook on Credit Bond Trends in the Current Trade Friction - After the implementation of the 54% tariff policy on April 2, 2025, the credit bond market's core logic shifted. Interest - rate bonds reacted first, and the steep downward movement of the interest - rate curve opened up the valuation space for credit bonds. High - grade varieties are favored, and in the short - term, safe - haven sentiment will dominate. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to economic data and the possible impact of the valuation repair of Chinese dollar - denominated bonds. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of "moderately extending duration" + "moderately lowering credit quality" [100][105].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant reduction of China's crude oil imports from the U.S. by 90% due to escalating trade tensions, leading to an unprecedented increase in imports from Canada [1][5] - The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) has facilitated the flow of Alberta's oil sands crude to China, with imports reaching a record 7.3 million barrels in March, expected to rise further in April [1] - The trade war has prompted China to diversify its oil import sources, with a notable shift towards Middle Eastern and other alternative crude oils, as the economic viability of U.S. crude has diminished due to tariffs [3][5] Group 2 - China's crude oil import volume is projected to decline by 1.9% in 2024, with a diversified import structure increasingly focusing on the Middle East and Europe, while reducing reliance on North America [5] - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. has significantly increased the cost of American crude oil, weakening its competitiveness in the Chinese market [5] - The long-term impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to negatively affect global economic conditions and crude oil demand, potentially leading to a decrease in international oil prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. will not lift tariffs on China unless substantial concessions are made by China, which China firmly denies as negotiations have not occurred [1][3] - China has set its bottom line: the U.S. must remove all tariffs and cease its extreme pressure tactics to establish a respectful and mutually beneficial dialogue [3] - The U.S. soybean exports to China reached $12.84 billion last year, highlighting the importance of this trade relationship for U.S. farmers [3] Group 2 - Japan is exploring increasing imports of U.S. corn and soybeans as part of its tariff negotiations with the U.S., but this will not compensate for the loss of the Chinese market [5] - In 2024, Japan's soybean imports are projected to be 3.17 million tons, with 65.7% sourced from the U.S., indicating limited room for increased imports [5] - China's strategy of diversifying its imports, such as turning to South America for soybeans, demonstrates its resilience against U.S. tariffs [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent termination of the tariff exemption policy for small packages from China has not deterred American consumers; instead, it has sparked a "reverse purchasing" trend, indicating a strong demand for Chinese products despite increased costs [5][10]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. has ended the tariff exemption for small packages valued under $800 from China, imposing tariffs of 120% of the value or $100, effective May 2 [2]. - A dress priced at $18.47 on a Chinese e-commerce platform saw its price rise to $44.68 after a $26.21 import fee, reflecting a price increase of over 140% [3]. - Some products on the Shein platform experienced price surges of approximately 377% due to the new tariffs [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Despite the increased costs, American consumers are traveling to China to shop, leading to a surge in "reverse purchasing" [5]. - Data from Alipay indicates that spending by American tourists in China has doubled year-on-year, highlighting a significant increase in demand for Chinese goods [6]. - Social media discussions reveal that many American consumers are actively seeking ways to purchase Chinese products, with some expressing a desire for assistance in sourcing items from China [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of reverse purchasing reflects a growing recognition of the value and quality of Chinese products among American consumers [10]. - The demand for Chinese goods is seen as a response to the structural impacts of tariff policies and the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [10]. - The increase in shipping costs due to tariffs has not deterred consumers, who are finding ways to navigate the challenges posed by the new trade environment [10].

Group 1 - The impact of tariffs on various industries is significant, with the U.S. relying heavily on imports of manufactured goods from China, while China imports mainly commodities from the U.S. [4] - Over 70% of products imported by the U.S. from China account for 36% of total imports, while only 10% of products imported by China from the U.S. have a similar reliance [4] - The contribution of exports to the U.S. from China is less than 3% of China's GDP, indicating that excessive tariffs may not significantly harm China's economy [4] Group 2 - Tariffs are expected to indirectly affect the profitability of Chinese companies through a slowdown in global GDP growth, with Goldman Sachs lowering its U.S. economic growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 2.5% to 0.5% [5][6] - The anticipated increase in China's fiscal deficit to 14.5% of GDP and a 60 basis point cut in interest rates are expected to mitigate some of the negative impacts of tariffs [6] Group 3 - The Chinese government may increase fiscal support for affected export products and consider measures to assist the 10-20 million jobs linked to exports to the U.S. [7] - Infrastructure projects may be expedited to stimulate GDP growth amidst trade tensions [7] Group 4 - The current market response to U.S.-China relations is less intense than in previous years, with the Goldman Sachs U.S.-China Relations Index indicating lower pressure compared to the peaks of 2022-2023 [8][9] Group 5 - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the A-share market have shown effectiveness, with a focus on attracting long-term investments and improving shareholder returns [10] - The national team's intervention has provided market stability, with sufficient liquidity support available if needed [11] Group 6 - Overseas funds have increased their positions in Chinese stocks, particularly in the AI sector, with a notable rise in allocations to emerging markets and Asia [12] - A-shares are expected to outperform H-shares in the next three months due to domestic investor stability and government support [13][14] Group 7 - Key sectors to watch include consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and government-related industries, which are expected to be less negatively impacted by external risks [15][16] Group 8 - The likelihood of Chinese companies being forced to delist from U.S. markets is lower than in previous trade disputes, as many have already listed in Hong Kong [17] Group 9 - The extent of tariff increases will depend on the desired outcomes, balancing revenue generation and the potential loss of exports [18] Group 10 - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields has raised questions about who is selling U.S. debt, with diversification of foreign reserves being a potential factor [19]

并不忘再补上一句，"如果不行，我们还有后招，禁运也不是没有可能。" 美国似乎在期待中国让步，但问题是，这一招真能奏效吗？禁运一旦启动，全球经济的反噬会让美国承受得起吗？ 美国财长"禁航威胁" 长贝森特他认为中国应该主动降温，迈出第一步，他强调，中国对美出口额是美国对华出口的五倍，基于这一差距，他认为目前的125%关税 政策是不现实的，无法持续下去。 贝森特还进一步威胁，如果局势恶化，升级的选项可能包括实施禁运，但他也表示希望这种情况不会发生。 前言 4月28日，美国财政部长贝森特在接受CNBC采访时拿出了"升级版威胁"，中国应该主动"降温"。 中美聚焦——美财长:希望中方率先缓和贸易紧张局势 贝森特似乎拿出了一副"铁证"，用中国对美出口额是美国对华出口五倍这个数字来说明关税不可能继续维持。 但问题是，这个看似有力的论据背后，其实漏洞百出，逻辑不太成立，首先，中美之间的贸易结构本就不对等。 中国凭借完善的产业链，生产了大量的日常消费品和电子产品，而这些恰恰是美国消费者离不开的东西。 说白了，如果没有中国的这些产品，美国的消费者可能得付出更高的价格，甚至有些商品根本买不到。 而美国在半导体等多个领域对中国设置的种 ...

Group 1 - In April, copper prices initially fell to 72,000 yuan/ton before recovering to around 77,000 yuan/ton due to rising market risk aversion and subsequent easing of trade tensions by the U.S. government [2] - The U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with 15 to 18 key partners, with India likely to be the first to reach an agreement, while the trade negotiations with China are intensifying [3] - The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, with processing fees declining significantly, and major mining companies have lowered their production guidance for 2025 [4] Group 2 - The import of scrap copper from the U.S. has dropped sharply, with March imports falling to 22,000 tons, a 29% decrease, as China imposes high tariffs on U.S. goods [5] - Social copper inventory has decreased for eight consecutive weeks, with a total of 155,100 tons, reflecting a tightening supply and increasing domestic demand [6] - The domestic copper market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with increased production in the face of limited imports, and the operating rate of major copper rod enterprises has risen to 79.56% [6] Group 3 - Overall, the copper market is facing weak supply, but demand is marginally improving due to domestic policies and overseas exports, although the sustainability of this demand recovery is in question [8] - The high tariffs imposed by both the U.S. and China are expected to severely impact consumer demand for durable goods, with potential negative effects on future demand [8] - The progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations will be crucial for copper prices, which may continue to rise if negotiations go smoothly, but could face downward pressure if they stall [8]

导读 2025年4月22日，由中国人民大学深圳研究院（社会科学高等研究院（深圳））主办，中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）、中国人民大学深圳金融高 等研究院共同承办的"人大深圳社科沙龙"（第49期）暨"大金融思想沙龙"（总第252期）在线上成功举行，本次会议的主题为： "全球经济变局下的人民 币汇率观察"。 IMI研究员、中国人民大学财政金融学院副教授陆利平发表主题报告， 中国人民大学经济学院原党委常务副书记兼副院长王晋斌，国家发展和改革委员会 宏观经济研究院研究员曲凤杰，北京航空航天大学经济管理学院金融学教授谭小芬，华创证券研究所副所长、首席宏观分析师张瑜等嘉宾出席会议并参与 研讨。本次沙龙由 中国人民大学财政金融学院教授张顺明主持。 主题报告 沙龙第一环节，由 IMI研究员、中国人民大学财政金融学院副教授陆利平发表主题报告，提出三方面观点，一是近期全球经济格局面临重大变化，美国对 华关税政策对中国出口和经济增长带来不确定性，人民币汇率承压。美元指数持续走弱及美国经济衰退预期持续作用于汇率。二是贸易摩擦是影响汇率走 势的重要因素，本轮摩擦中人民币短期贬值后迅速反弹，波动性明显增强。三是人民币汇率同时面临多 ...