美国急着要发8000多亿美元国债，四个月内全得出手，可十年期美债收益率已经飙到5%。 面对美方求援，咱们一口回绝，如今中国退居至美国第三大海外"债主"。 从购入到减持，中国为啥步步后退？这背后有什么盘算？ 作者-水 耶伦求援记 2023年7月的那个下午，耶伦踏上了北京的土地，这位美国财政部长脸上写满了焦急。 她此行的目的再明白不过，美国财政部的钱袋子眼看就要见底，国会两党还在为债务上限吵得不可开交。政府随时可能"关门大吉"，而解决这个烂摊子的唯 一办法，就是继续发债。 可问题来了，8500亿美元的新债谁来接盘？华尔街的那些金融大鳄早就被美债的风险吓得够呛。十年期美债收益率飙升至5%，这个数字听起来不错，但背 后的风险更让人心惊胆战。 耶伦把希望寄托在了中国身上，毕竟，咱们曾经是美债的头号买家，手里攥着超过万亿美元的美国国债。在她看来，只要中国点个头，其他国家自然会跟 进，这场债务危机就能暂时化解。 前言 2008年，全球金融危机爆发的时候，中国可是二话不说就豪掷万亿救美国。那会儿华尔街哀鸿遍野，雷曼兄弟倒闭，整个美国金融体系摇摇欲坠。 咱们当时是怎么做的？眼都不眨就增持了大量美债。一年内，中国持有的美国国债从 ...

随着地缘局势紧张加剧，国际黄金价格再度走高。截至6月13日17时25分，伦敦现货黄金价格一度升破3440美元/盎司，最高至3444.49美元/盎司，COMEX 黄金期货价格最高触及3467美元/盎司，两者均创今年4月22日以来新高。 白银最近也开始补涨，大有赶超之势，铂金同样异军突起，掀起贵金属新浪潮。5月下旬以来，白银等其他贵金属开始活跃，其中，银价日前站上每盎司 37美元整数关口上方，创下13年来新高，年内累计最大涨幅接近25%。 | COMEX白银 | W | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SI.CMX | 36.395 | | | | | | 昨结 | 36.295 | 36.410 | 开盘 | | | | 现手 | 1.56万 | 总手 | +0.28% | +0.100 | 1 | | 最高价 | 8.924万 | 36.770 | 持 仓 | 7370.000 | 外 盘 | | 最低价 | -4390 | 36.040 | 檀 仓 | 内 | 8240.000 | | 分时 | 月K | 周Ｋ | 五日 | 車名 | 日K | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing willingness of enterprises in the Middle East and ASEAN regions to use the Renminbi (RMB) for trade settlements, driven by concerns over the declining status of the US dollar and the need for currency diversification [2][10]. Group 1: RMB in International Trade - There has been a notable increase in enterprises willing to sign trade contracts priced in RMB, a shift from the previous preference for USD [7][8]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is accelerating, with many companies seeking to diversify their reserve currencies in response to US trade policies [9][10]. - The RMB is becoming the third-largest trade financing currency globally, with demand for RMB international trade financing rising significantly [12]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Usage - The acceleration of China's export supply chains and the establishment of more overseas production facilities by Chinese companies are contributing to the increased use of RMB in cross-border trade [4][5]. - The introduction of bilateral trade agreements that allow for currency settlements in local currencies is encouraging the use of RMB [5][10]. - The high cost of USD trade financing due to rising interest rates is prompting companies to consider RMB as a more cost-effective alternative [8][12]. Group 3: Banking and Financial Infrastructure - Banks are actively promoting RMB usage by encouraging enterprises to adopt RMB and local currency pricing in trade contracts [5][10]. - The Chinese government is implementing measures to enhance cross-border RMB trade financing, including support for banks to expand RMB credit offerings [13]. - There is a need for more innovative RMB investment products to enhance its attractiveness as a reserve currency [14].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the willingness of companies in the Middle East and ASEAN regions to use the Chinese yuan (RMB) for trade settlements, driven by concerns over the declining status of the US dollar following the introduction of the US's so-called reciprocal tariff policy in early April [2][6][8]. Group 1: Currency Diversification - Companies in the Middle East and ASEAN are increasingly seeking to diversify their reserve currencies, moving away from the US dollar due to fears of its depreciation and declining global status [2][3][8]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is becoming more pronounced, with many companies exploring RMB as an alternative currency for trade settlements [8][10]. Group 2: Trade Contract Changes - There has been a notable increase in the number of trade contracts denominated in RMB, a shift that was previously unimaginable for many overseas enterprises that traditionally preferred USD [6][10]. - The use of RMB for trade contracts provides stability in pricing and reduces the risks associated with currency fluctuations, benefiting Chinese exporters [6][7]. Group 3: International Trade Financing - The demand for RMB in international trade financing is on the rise, with many overseas companies viewing it as a crucial means to secure RMB positions for cross-border payments [9][10]. - The RMB is projected to become the third-largest trade financing currency by the end of 2024, driven by the acceleration of bilateral trade agreements and the increasing need for RMB in international transactions [10][11]. Group 4: Banking Sector Response - Banks are actively seizing the opportunity presented by the internationalization of the RMB, encouraging overseas enterprises to adopt RMB and local currency contracts [4][5]. - Financial institutions are working to enhance the infrastructure for RMB usage abroad, addressing challenges such as insufficient RMB supply and regulatory hurdles [5][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that while the RMB has made strides in becoming a trade settlement currency, further innovation in RMB-denominated investment products is necessary to enhance its attractiveness compared to the USD [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing discourse on "de-dollarization" in the context of U.S. tariff policies, highlighting the reliance of U.S. companies on overseas business and the potential impact on their performance due to changing global economic dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Overseas Revenue Proportion - In the S&P 500 index, the proportion of non-U.S. revenue is approximately 30%, which is higher for large enterprises compared to small enterprises, where it is about 20% [6][18]. - The companies disclosing non-U.S. revenue in the S&P 500 represent about 83% of the total market capitalization, indicating a high level of representativeness [6][18]. Group 2: Industry Exposure to Overseas Revenue - The technology sector has the highest exposure to overseas revenue, with over 50% of its revenue coming from non-U.S. sources, followed by materials, healthcare, and communications, all exceeding 30% [7][21]. - Key industries like technology and communications account for nearly half of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500, indicating their significant reliance on overseas business [7][21]. Group 3: Major Companies' Overseas Business - More than half of the major companies in the S&P 500 have overseas business proportions exceeding their respective industry averages [9][26]. - For instance, Apple has 57% of its revenue from overseas, while Nvidia and Broadcom have 56% and 75%, respectively, which are above the technology sector's average of 51% [10][26]. Group 4: Importance of Asian and European Markets - Asian and European markets are nearly equally important, with Asian revenue accounting for 45% and European revenue for 40% of non-U.S. income [12][40]. - In the technology and energy sectors, Asian revenue is significantly higher than European revenue, while in consumer and financial sectors, European revenue dominates [12][40]. Group 5: Growth Rates of Domestic vs. Overseas Revenue - The growth of overseas revenue is generally outpacing domestic revenue growth, particularly in the communications sector, which shows a consistent trend of higher growth in non-U.S. revenue [13][44]. - The materials sector also exhibits higher growth in overseas revenue compared to total revenue for 2023-2024 [13][44]. Group 6: Profitability of Overseas Business - Certain industries, including essential and non-essential consumer goods, materials, and technology, show higher profit margins for overseas business compared to domestic operations [15][50]. - For example, the average operating profit margin for overseas business in the technology sector is 33%, which is higher than the overall average of 20% [15][50]. Group 7: Dependence on Chinese Market - The technology and communications sectors have a higher proportion of revenue from China, at 25.1%, compared to the overall average of 16.5% [16][57]. - However, revenue growth from China for these sectors has slowed in the past two years, potentially due to U.S. restrictions on technology [16][57].

Group 1 - The global industrial chain, monetary system, and asset analysis framework are undergoing reconstruction due to diminishing trust among countries, with gold potentially entering a long-term bull market driven by de-dollarization and ongoing central bank purchases [3] - Domestic economic demand remains to be boosted, and policies are expected to maintain a gradually positive tone [3] - Inflation is hovering at low levels, with the key to its rebound lying internally rather than externally, suggesting that policy efforts may become more aggressive in the second half of the year [5] Group 2 - May export growth has slowed, not due to previous over-shipments or temporary fluctuations, but rather due to the peak and subsequent decline of tariff expectations, indicating a resilient export sector despite a lower central tendency [9] - The high-interest rate environment caused by recent dollar credit discounts has led to a notable slowdown in private credit expansion in the U.S., creating a fragile balance that requires careful policy management to avoid potential debt crises [11] - The market for human-robot bearings is expected to see significant growth due to the development of humanoid robots, with domestic replacement opportunities becoming increasingly prominent [27] Group 3 - The recent trading heat in Chinese assets has increased, with a notable inflow of financing funds and new equity fund issuances exceeding 10 billion [13] - The Hong Kong stock market is emerging as a key battleground in the current bull market, driven by the scarcity of attractive assets and supportive domestic policies [16] - The expansion of ETFs is beneficial for credit bonds, with significant differences in duration and component concentration between Shanghai and Shenzhen market indices [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the shifting dynamics in the global payment system, where despite the long-standing dominance of the US dollar, its influence is showing signs of decline, while the euro is gaining ground [1][4][6] - As of April 2025, the US dollar's share in global payments rose to 49.68%, marking an eight-month high, while the euro's share increased to 22.24% [4][6] - The Chinese yuan's share in global payments decreased by 0.63 percentage points to 3.5%, falling to fifth place behind the yen, which saw a rise in demand due to low interest rates [4][22][25] Group 2 - The article discusses the ongoing trend of "de-dollarization," where countries like the UAE, India, China, and Thailand are exploring the use of local currencies for cross-border transactions to reduce reliance on a single currency system [9][11] - The euro, once seen as a strong challenger to the dollar, has struggled due to structural issues within the Eurozone, particularly highlighted by the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [15][19] - The yuan's decline in global payment share is attributed not solely to trade tensions but also to a surge in demand for the yen, which has affected the relative standing of the yuan [22][25][30] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the international status of a currency is influenced by factors such as economic scale, technological strength, and the maturity of financial markets, adhering to the principle that "strong economies lead to strong currencies" [34][36] - The current discussions around de-dollarization reflect countries' awareness of the risks associated with a single currency, aiming to create a more diversified international monetary system where multiple currencies can coexist and compete [36][38]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have led to significant volatility in the U.S. stock market, highlighting the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global economic landscape [1][5][9]. Group 1: U.S. Dollar Dominance - The U.S. dollar maintains a commanding position in global payments, accounting for 49.07% of the market, far ahead of the euro at 21.58% and the Chinese yuan at 4.69% [3][11][14]. - The historical roots of the dollar's dominance can be traced back to World War II, when the U.S. established a strong financial position by accumulating gold and later linking the dollar to oil [7][9]. - The U.S. government benefits from the dollar's status, allowing it to issue large amounts of debt and maintain fiscal deficits without facing the same risks as other countries [5][9]. Group 2: Challenges to Dollar Dominance - Many countries are actively pursuing de-dollarization to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, with a growing consensus on the need for a more diversified currency payment system [9][16]. - The euro, once a strong competitor to the dollar, has seen its global payment share decline due to economic challenges within the Eurozone and geopolitical tensions [11][14]. - The rise of the yuan in international payments signals a shift towards greater currency diversification, supported by China's economic growth and increased global trade partnerships [14][16].

服 热线 官 方 网 站 fet 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 入 開 市 市 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 DAVAL 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 AG2508 | | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格龈踪 | 2025/6/12 | 3373. 58 | 36. 25 | 3393. 80 ...

受外围地缘冲突影响，亚太股市普跌，日本、韩国、印度市场均跌近1%，A股三大指数集体调整，截至发稿，沪指、深指、创业板指均跌超 0.6%，全市场超4000只个股下跌。 板块方面，美容、医药、传媒、白酒等跌幅居前，黄金和原油受到以色列和伊朗冲突升级影响大涨。 01 国际原油价格飙涨 原油股拉升 能源股集体爆发，通源石油开盘20%涨停，准油股份一字涨停，潜能恒信等涨停或涨超10%。 消息面，当地时间 12日凌晨，以空军正在对伊朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军事设施相关的目标发动空袭，并且将此次行动命名为"狮子的力 量"。以军称，伊朗拥有足够的浓缩铀，可以在几天内制造出多枚炸弹，因此需要采取行动应对这一"迫在眉睫的威胁"。以色列总理表示，以军对 伊朗核设施的军事行动将持续数日，直至消除威胁为止。 此外，美国进入夏季石油需求旺季，原油库存超预期下降。当地时间 11日美国能源信息署（EIA）发布的最新库存数据显示，截至上周末，美国原 油库存4.32亿桶，减少364万桶；库欣地区原油库存2368.3万桶，减少40万桶。 受诸多因素共同影响，布伦特原油和 WTI原油盘中均飙涨超10%，都创3年多来最大单日涨幅。 中信证券表示，近 ...