法币贬值风险 (Debasement 高盛关于贵金属市场（主要是黄金和白银）报告的主要内容总结，日期为2026年2月2日，基于几位核心分析师和 交易主管的观点： 核心观点与市场背景 主要驱动主题： 去美元化 (De-dollarisation)：这是最持久的主题。 各国央行持续增持黄金，全球持有的美债储备总量已低于黄金储备总量，且此趋势预计将在2026年延续。 高盛关于贵金属市场（主要是黄金和白银）报告的主要内容总结，日期为2026年2月2日，基于几位核心分析师和 交易主管的观点： 核心观点与市场背景 主要驱动主题： 去美元化 (De-dollarisation)：这是最持久的主题。 各国央行持续增持黄金，全球持有的美债储备总量已低于黄金储备总量，且此趋势预计将在2026年延续。 法币贬值风险 (Debasement ofFiat Currencies)：自2025年起，机构投资者因担忧法定货币长期贬值而寻求黄金等资产 进行配置。 去全球化 (De-globalization)与地缘政治秩序变化：地缘政治事件（如报告中提及的委内瑞拉和格陵兰岛相关事件） 及政策变动，导致投资者将黄金视为避险资产，这部分资金倾向 ...

资金抢筹布局黄金板块，挂钩实物黄金的黄金ETF国泰(518800)大涨超4%，近20日净流入超84亿元，规模近400亿元。 近期金银市场剧烈波动，白银日内最大回撤幅度一度接近40%，黄金也在上冲5600大幅回调，而今日在4800点关口迎来反弹，如此巨震，黄金行情还能上车 吗？ 黄金市场巨震深度解析：泡沫出清与长牛逻辑的再审视 在全球货币叙事与地缘格局剧烈重构的背景下，黄金市场于2026年1月末至2月初上演了一场史诗级波动。金价自历史高位5600美元急速回落，单日跌幅创下 纪录，引发市场对牛市是否终结的广泛疑虑。本文将从触发因素与深层结构、短期波动性质、长期逻辑验证及投资策略应对四个维度，系统解读本轮巨震的 本质，并梳理黄金资产的后续配置逻辑。 【触发与结构：事件催化下的高杠杆泡沫出清】 本次黄金暴跌的直接导火索是特朗普提名偏鹰派的沃什为美联储负责人，引发市场对"降息+缩表"紧缩政策的恐慌。然而，更深层的原因是金价在极端加速 上涨后，市场结构已极度脆弱，高杠杆资金在波动率与保证金上调的压力下集中平仓，导致多杀多式的踩踏。 表面来看，政策预期的突变是下跌的直接诱因。沃什被提名为下任美联储负责人，其历史政策倾向偏向 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 03 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | ...

近日，国际黄金与白银市场经历罕见巨幅下挫，美国科技股亦同步大幅下跌。2月2日，亚洲 股市普遍承压，国内商品期货市场多数品种走低，其中沪银、广期所铂金和钯金跌停，沪金 一度触及跌停板。 全球市场为何如此青睐黄金？这一问题并非新近出现。过去几年，作为黄金的主要购买方， 各国央行持续推进外汇储备多元化，黄金已成为分散美元风险的重要避险资产与国家储备工 具。因此，黄金价格背后的核心驱动实为"去美元化"逻辑——无论是出于对美元资产安全性 的担忧，还是基于美国债务问题对美元信用的忧虑，黄金均被视为具有历史意义的对冲工 具。 在各国央行长期、持续增持的支撑下，黄金的安全边际得到强化。与此同时，美国在美元信 用、利率政策及地缘政治等方面日益凸显的不确定性，似乎正推动黄金进入一个历史性的上 涨周期。正是基于这一叙事与判断，市场资金逐渐将原本作为避险资产的黄金（无息资产） 重新定位为风险资产。在当前美股、美债等资产已处于高位、增长空间受限的背景下，在有 限的资产选择范围内，黄金与白银被视为最能捕捉货币贬值、再通胀以及地缘政治冲突情绪 的交易标的。 美国因过去长期使用过度宽松的货币与财政政策，导致该国宏观风险不断累积，已濒临临界 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback, with the Wind All A index declining by 2.71% and a trading volume of 2.61 trillion yuan [10] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the decline, with the CSI 1000 index down 3.39%, the CSI 500 index down 3.98%, the CSI 300 index down 2.13%, and the SSE 50 index down 2.07% [10] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced to support the market, including the establishment of a national-level merger fund and the regulation of local economic promotion behaviors [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to advance significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [10] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing their valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [10] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have raised the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating increased risk aversion among investors [10] - The market is currently in a high volatility phase, with a cautious approach recommended for investors [10] Bond Market - The 30-year bond futures contract rose by 0.18%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts showed slight declines [11] - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a stable interest rate of 1.4% [11] - The bond market's upward momentum is limited due to ongoing fiscal policies and structural interest rate adjustments [11] Precious Metals - The London spot precious metals market showed a slight recovery, but overall performance remained weak, with domestic silver and platinum-palladium futures hitting the limit down [12] - The gold-silver ratio rose to 58.1, and the platinum-palladium price difference narrowed to 404 USD/ounce [12] - The recent volatility in the precious metals market is attributed to forced liquidation due to extreme overbuying, but long-term support factors remain intact [12]

华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇对第一财经称，大宗商品大规模跌停，主要是因市场情绪从亢奋走向恐慌，从一个极端走向另一个极端，后续 会回归。而且以有色、贵金属等为代表的商品上涨趋势不会逆转，只不过市场波动加大，给风控带来挑战，容易出现多空均受损的情况。 多位期货行业人士告诉记者，目前期货公司在不断通知客户减仓或者追保，在大宗商品大规模跌停的情况下，投资者爆仓风险大增。国内外交易所对贵 金属等高波动品种不断出台降温举措，叠加临近春节全市场主动降仓，贵金属期货出现局部爆仓现象，但尚未看到较强的爆仓潮。 就当前策略而言，"必须极度清晰和务实：首要任务是防守。"国信期货首席分析师顾冯达建议，投资者利用市场反弹，坚决降低整体仓位，将大部分浮 盈落袋为安，尤其对白银等投机属性极强的品种应暂时远离。 2026.02. 03 本文字数：3879，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 黄思瑜 2月2日，国内大宗商品期货市场罕见掀起跌停潮。 继国际金银价格暴跌之后，周一（2月2日），国内期货市场多个品种纷纷跌停，先是沪银、钯、铂、锡期货主力合约开盘后便快速跌停，下午，沪镍、 沪铜、沪铝、国际铜、原油、燃料油、铸造铝合金等期货 ...

Group 1: Copper Market Analysis - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell by 1% to 100,820 yuan, while London copper is at the lower end of $13,000 [4][17] - The ISM manufacturing PMI in the US rebounded to 52.6 in January, exceeding market expectations, indicating an expansion in manufacturing sentiment which has stabilized copper prices [5][17] - The increase in copper warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange by 1,676 tons to 158,000 tons, and a decrease in LME copper stocks by 300 tons to 174,000 tons, suggests a mixed supply-demand outlook [5][17] - The current trading range for Shanghai copper futures is expected to be between 99,800 and 102,800 yuan per ton [17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Market - The nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to expectations of tightened liquidity, causing a pullback in the non-ferrous sector [6][18] - Nickel ore shipments from the Philippines are hindered by weather conditions, while supply from Indonesia is also tight due to rainfall [6][18] - The market for stainless steel continues to face oversupply pressures, with limited terminal demand, although suppliers are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices due to low arrivals and strong cost support [6][18] Group 3: Aluminum Market Insights - Alumina futures prices have rebounded slightly, with spot prices stabilizing; a northwest aluminum plant has tendered for 10,000 tons of alumina at a price of 2,920-2,930 yuan per ton, reflecting a rise of 4-50 yuan from previous transactions [20][21] - The overall supply remains high, with both production cuts and restarts occurring, and the upcoming Spring Festival may lead to further maintenance by some companies [20][21] - The trading range for alumina futures is projected to be between 2,600 and 2,900 yuan per ton, with a strategy of high selling and low buying within this range [21] Group 4: Zinc and Lead Market Overview - Zinc prices opened lower but are expected to recover; the ISM manufacturing data from the US indicates a strong equity market, which may improve macro sentiment [22][23] - The supply side for lead remains tight due to limited primary lead concentrate availability, while recycled lead supply is relatively loose [23] - The trading range for lead futures is anticipated to be between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan per ton, with expectations of a range-bound market due to weak supply and demand dynamics [23] Group 5: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Precious metals have experienced significant volatility, with gold and silver prices declining but palladium showing signs of recovery [25] - The strong ISM manufacturing PMI has bolstered the US dollar, adding pressure to precious metals, while geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russian platinum may support palladium prices [25] - The recommended trading ranges for precious metals are as follows: gold at 1,050-1,140 yuan per gram, silver at 21,000-24,000 yuan per kilogram, and platinum at 530-590 yuan per gram [25]

新湖期货认为，黄金价格中长期支撑仍存，指出沃什获提名及由此引发的汇率波动属于短期扰动，中期市场焦点仍将集中于地缘政治风险升温与特朗普政 府政策的高度不确定性；而长期来看，全球债务可持续性恶化与去美元化趋势的深化，是支撑黄金结构性走强的核心变量。目前，上述中长期逻辑并未发 生根本性逆转。 仍有机构在市场恐慌中，坚持长期看多有色金属板块，中信证券指出，在经历2025年的大涨行情后，有色金属价格与股票行情的上涨动能依然充足，供应 扰动、需求局部高景气和囤货行为为金属价格带来强支撑，流动性宽松带来的交易活跃度上升以及地缘冲突带来的避险情绪升温有望放大金属的价格弹 性。看好贵金属、工业金属、电池金属和战略金属板块的配置价值。 今日（2月3日）现货黄金开盘反弹，截至发稿，重回4800美元/盎司，日内涨超3%。分析指出，量化基金去杠杆化、杠杆ETF和趋势跟踪策略头寸调整所 引发的强制抛售潮，其主体部分可能已基本释放。 消息面上，特朗普称正在与伊朗对话。当地时间2月2日，针对伊朗问题，美国总统特朗普表示，美方已向相关地区调动大型军舰，同时与伊朗保持沟 通，"将观察事态如何发展"。 尽管近期黄金价格大幅波动，但美银仍将其看作对 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices rebounded to over $4800 per ounce, with a daily increase of more than 3% [1][7] - The forced selling wave caused by quantitative funds deleveraging and adjustments in leveraged ETFs has likely been mostly released [1][7] - Bank of America views gold as a crucial hedge against dollar depreciation, stating that "currency devaluation is the basic scenario" [1][7] - JPMorgan predicts that gold will remain a flexible and diverse hedging tool, with current investor demand exceeding previous expectations, potentially driving prices to $6300 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1][7] - New Lake Futures believes that long-term support for gold prices remains, with geopolitical risks and uncertainty in Trump’s policies being key focus areas [1][7] Group 2: Base Metals Outlook - Citic Securities maintains a long-term bullish outlook on the non-ferrous metals sector, citing strong price support from supply disruptions and high demand in certain areas [2][8] - The liquidity easing and rising trading activity, along with heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical conflicts, are expected to amplify price elasticity for metals [2][8] - Huatai Securities recommends a moderate allocation of 10%-20% in non-ferrous metals within investment portfolios to share in potential gains while diversifying risk [2][8] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metals ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of industries, including precious metals, strategic metals, and industrial metals, providing a comprehensive approach to capturing sector performance [2][8]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PX、PTA、乙二醇、短纤、瓶片、纯苯、苯乙烯、LLDPE、PP、甲醇、烧 碱、PVC、尿素、纯碱、玻璃、天然橡胶、合成橡胶 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@g ...