【导读】重仓新消费基金业绩亮眼，年内最多涨超65% 多只基金重仓新消费斩获亮眼业绩 今年以来，港股与A股市场新消费板块集体上涨。截至6月6日，沪深港新消费指数年内涨幅达15.71%， 同期消费指数下跌0.31%，沪深300指数下跌1.55%。 多个热点方向表现强劲，港股"新消费三姐妹"——泡泡玛特、蜜雪集团、老铺黄金尤为突出，股价连创 新高。 实际上，作为最具代表性的新消费龙头，泡泡玛特、老铺黄金等早已进入主动权益基金视野。Wind数 据显示，截至今年一季度末，共有182只基金重仓泡泡玛特，持仓总市值达87.8亿元，环比增加897.7万 股。老铺黄金被39只基金重仓，持股总市值为16.55亿元，不过，持仓环比减少了27.36万股。 得益于重仓新消费股，一批基金年内业绩可观。Wind数据显示，重仓泡泡玛特的基金今年以来平均净 值增长率为13.8%，其中39只基金涨超20%，119只涨超10%；重仓老铺黄金的基金年内净值平均涨幅为 16.94%，其中11只基金涨超20%，20只涨超10%。 从单只产品来看，吴远怡管理的广发成长领航一年持有A配置了泡泡玛特、老铺黄金等港股，年内净值 增长率达到65.18%；付娟、刘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector, represented by companies like Pop Mart, has shown remarkable stock performance over the past year, with significant interest from female fund managers who have outperformed their male counterparts in this space [1][5][8]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Manager Insights - As of June 6, Pop Mart's stock price reached 244.8 HKD per share, marking a 544.32% increase over the past year [4]. - Other companies like Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Group also exhibited strong performance, with Lao Pu Gold rising 277.62% year-to-date and Mixue Group maintaining an 85% increase [4]. - Nearly 97% of the 207 funds heavily invested in Pop Mart reported positive returns, with top performers achieving returns over 50% [5]. - Female fund managers accounted for nearly half of the fund managers heavily invested in Pop Mart, significantly higher than the industry average of 27% [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Trends - Fund managers have identified new consumption stocks as having strong growth potential, with a focus on understanding consumer behavior and preferences [2][10]. - The recent adjustment in the new consumption sector has led to increased market volatility, with stocks like Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Group experiencing significant declines [12][13]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, fund managers maintain a positive long-term outlook for the new consumption sector, emphasizing the importance of understanding the evolving consumer landscape [14][15]. Group 3: Gender Dynamics in Fund Management - The performance of female fund managers in the new consumption sector has sparked discussions about their unique advantages in identifying investment opportunities [8][10]. - Female fund managers often exhibit a heightened sensitivity to consumer trends, which may contribute to their success in the new consumption space [10]. - The investment decisions of both male and female fund managers are driven by a focus on consumer behavior rather than strictly adhering to traditional consumption categories [10][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming inclusion of companies Bruco, Guming, and Mixue Group into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is expected to attract incremental capital allocation [4]. - Bruco, as the leading building block toy brand in China, has achieved a market share of 30.3% in 2023, with a global market share of 7.4%. The company is expected to continue its rapid growth through new IP, products, and channel expansion [4][9]. - Guming, the leading domestic ready-to-drink tea brand, has expanded its store count to 9,914 by the end of 2024, with a projected GMV of 22.4 billion yuan. The company is well-positioned to capture market share through its differentiated competitive advantages [4][10]. - Mixue Group, a leader in affordable ready-to-drink beverages, has established a comprehensive supply chain and has expanded to 45,302 stores by September 2024. The company holds a 31% market share in the sub-10 yuan price segment, indicating strong market presence [4][10]. - The report suggests focusing on new consumer brands such as Bruco, Guming, and Mixue Group, as well as collectible brands like Pop Mart and pet food sectors, which are expected to benefit from changing consumer habits and increased brand value [4][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The retail sector has shown a positive performance with a 1.29% increase in the Shenwan retail index from June 2 to June 6, 2025, and a year-to-date increase of 9.30% [12][23]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies in the retail sector, providing insights into their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings [21]. Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan retail index has outperformed other indices, indicating a robust market environment for retail stocks [12][23].

New Product Launches - Jiu Yu launched coconut matcha powder, made from 100% matcha and coconut water powder, with a matcha content of ≥ 5% [3] - Xi Zhi Lang introduced NFC fruit pulp jelly, using fresh fruit pulp within 24-48 hours, with a fruit content of ≥ 40% [3] - Chao Le Zi collaborated with Harry Potter to launch new ice cream flavors [3] - Koko Manfen released three new fruit tea products, emphasizing natural tea polyphenols [5] - Oreo launched a limited edition cookie in collaboration with Selena Gomez, featuring chocolate and cinnamon flavors [16][20] Financing Activities - BlissClub, a women's activewear brand, completed a financing round totaling $530 million [14] - Miraggio, a handbag and accessories brand, raised $650 million in its first round of institutional financing [15] - Nutriearth established a distribution partnership with AIDP to expand its vitamin D3 oil market in North America [9] Market Developments - Pizza Hut's app fully integrated with JD Pay, launching promotional activities to attract customers [8] - Topologie, a French outdoor brand, opened its first store in mainland China [8] - Drunk Elephant announced its exit from the Japanese market, ceasing all sales channels by June 30, 2025 [28] Industry Trends - e.l.f. Beauty announced a $1 billion acquisition of Hailey Bieber's skincare brand, marking its largest acquisition to date [27] - The collaboration between君乐宝 and Synodis aims to promote local production of high-end cream [8] - The launch of new products by major brands indicates a trend towards innovative and health-focused offerings in the food and beverage sector [16][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the A-share market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase until Q2-Q3 of 2025, with a need to wait for favorable conditions to initiate a larger market rally [1][2]. Market Review and Conditions for Breakthrough - Historically, after a bear market ends, the market often enters a consolidation phase before confirming a bull market. Significant upward breakthroughs from this phase typically signal the start of a major bull market [2]. - The article outlines previous consolidation periods in the A-share market, noting that the end of bear markets in 2005 and 2009 led directly to bull markets, while subsequent bear market endings resulted in prolonged consolidation phases [2]. - The conditions for a breakthrough include sustained inflow of incremental capital into A-shares, cyclical and structural improvements in the fundamentals, and optimistic expectations for a bull market [2]. Current Market Dynamics - The current environment shows that the asset management industry is returning to incremental competition, but further accumulation of profit effects is needed [2]. - The cyclical improvement in fundamentals is expected to be confirmed by 2026, while the structural bull market in technology requires breakthroughs at the foundational level to drive application layers [2]. - The optimistic expectations for China's strategic opportunity period are developing but need to resonate with other factors to reflect in asset prices [2]. Short-term Market Trends - The short-term rebound in the A-share market is supported by a "隔离墙" (isolation wall) against macroeconomic disturbances, which reduces major downside risks [5][6]. - The market is currently experiencing a positive attempt at structural breakthroughs, driven by the expansion of profit effects in new consumption and a rebound in technology growth [5][6]. - However, the overall profit effect is nearing a high point, suggesting potential for increased volatility in the short term [5][6]. New Consumption Trends - Core targets within new consumption sectors (such as jewelry, trendy toys, new snacks, and beauty products) are maintaining their respective growth trends, with high valuation frameworks still sustainable [7]. - The article expresses caution regarding the expansion of profit effects in new consumption, indicating that significant profit effect expansions often signal short-term adjustments [7]. - The A-share market's mid-term return to a structural bull market relies on breakthroughs in technology industry trends, with short-term rebounds in technology not yet escaping adjustment phases [8]. Quantitative Indicators - The article includes various quantitative indicators tracking market sentiment and profit effect diffusion across sectors, indicating ongoing expansions in several industries, including healthcare, environmental protection, and transportation [10].

完胜男性同行？"泡泡玛特"基金背后的"她投资" 过去一年多，以泡泡玛特为代表的新消费个股持续强势破圈，相关公司股价走势堪称惊艳。截至6月6 日，多只重仓相关标的的基金产品也有亮眼表现。如广发成长领航一年持有A、申万菱信乐融一年持有 A、恒越匠心优选一年持有A等产品的年内收益率均超过50%。 与泡泡玛特同样表现亮眼的还有老铺黄金与蜜雪集团。老铺黄金年内上涨277.62%，自去年6月上市以 来的股价涨幅已超12倍；今年3月上市的蜜雪集团股价震荡上扬，上探618.5港元/股后连续两日回调， 年内仍有85%的涨幅。 新消费个股的持续上涨，也带动了相关重仓基金业绩水涨船高。Wind数据显示，截至6月6日，包括 QDII基金在内，一季度末重仓泡泡玛特的产品有207只（仅计算初始基金，下同），200只年内回报为 正，占比近97%。 其中，业绩最好的广发成长领航一年持有A，今年以来的累计回报为65.18%；申万菱信乐融一年持有 A、恒越匠心优选一年持有A同期收益率分别为58.05%、54.49%；信澳优享生活A、南方香港成长等17 只产品则收获30%以上的收益。 亮眼的基金业绩，让新消费赛道成为投资者热议的焦点。"这波新消费 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The new consumption concept is prominent, with incremental market growth and "self-satisfaction consumption" providing growth momentum [4][12] - From June 2 to June 6, the food and beverage index declined by 1.1%, ranking 27th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.9 percentage points [12][13] - Companies with new consumption concepts in the food and beverage sector showed good performance, particularly in snacks, health products, and meat products [12][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a decline, but companies with new consumption concepts are performing well, particularly in snacks and small food companies [12] - The expansion of new channels, new product categories, and new market entries is driving growth in the sector [12] Market Performance - The food and beverage index underperformed the market, with snacks (+4.6%), health products (+1.7%), and meat products (+1.1%) leading the sub-industry performance [13][16] - Individual stocks such as Junyao Health and Huasheng Group showed significant gains, while companies like Kuaijishan and ST Jiayi faced declines [13][17] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of whole milk powder at $4,173 per ton, down 3.7% month-on-month but up 20% year-on-year [18][22] - Domestic fresh milk prices are on a downward trend, currently at 3.1 yuan per kilogram, down 8.4% year-on-year [18][22] Alcohol Industry News - Kuaijishan's "One Day One Smoke" sparkling yellow wine has begun its marketing campaign, indicating a focus on enhancing brand recognition and expanding market reach [41] - The beer production volume for large-scale enterprises in China showed a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year for the first four months of 2025, but April saw a 4.8% increase [41] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Ximai Food, with a focus on their growth potential and market strategies [5][45]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise of new consumption companies in the market, with notable examples like Pop Mart being compared to "the Moutai of young people" and other companies like Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Ice City experiencing substantial stock price increases [1][11] - The new consumption trend is primarily driven by the Z generation, who advocate for "self-consumption," and in the context of macroeconomic pressure, products that provide emotional value have become necessities, reflecting a modern "lipstick effect" [2][12] - The performance of new consumption indices, particularly the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index, which has risen by 20.66% this year, indicates strong market interest and investment in this sector [1][2] Group 2 - The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index includes a diverse range of sectors such as apparel, jewelry, beauty, home appliances, food and beverage, and consumer services, with Pop Mart being a significant representative stock [3][11] - Several ETFs have been launched to track these new consumption indices, with the fastest progress seen in the Fuguo Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme ETF, which is currently in subscription [3][4] - The Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index selects 50 liquid and large-cap stocks, with Alibaba and Tencent being the top two weighted stocks, while Pop Mart ranks sixth [3][5] Group 3 - The Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Big Consumption Theme Index includes a broader selection of stocks, including pharmaceutical companies, but currently lacks an ETF tracking it [5][6] - The Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Consumption Index focuses on large-cap new consumption companies from the Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen markets, with a lower proportion of discretionary consumption compared to other indices [5][6] - The Hang Seng Consumption Index, while not performing as strongly as the new consumption indices, demonstrates stability and defensive characteristics during market volatility, indicating long-term investment opportunities [8][12] Group 4 - The Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Leader Index and the Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Brand Consumption 50 Index both focus on high-performing companies in the consumption sector, with limited ETF tracking available for these indices [9][10] - Overall, the new consumption sector has shown remarkable performance this year, driven by significant inflows of capital, while traditional consumption indices have lagged behind [11][12] - The articles suggest that for investors optimistic about the new consumption sector, the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index is the preferred choice due to its high proportion of new consumption companies [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The motorcycle industry, despite being overshadowed by the automotive and aviation sectors, has emerged as a significant market with a scale of approximately 1 trillion yuan and an annual demand of around 52 million units, showcasing a successful recovery from deflationary pressures and becoming a positive case of "anti-involution" in the context of global manufacturing [5][11][17]. Group 1: Market Size and Dynamics - The global motorcycle market is larger than that of heavy trucks, buses, and rail transit, with a market size of about 1 trillion yuan, indicating substantial investment potential [5][12]. - China is the largest motorcycle producer, with annual domestic sales exceeding 5 million units and exports surpassing 10 million units, accounting for over 30% of the global market share [11][12]. - The motorcycle industry has historically faced challenges such as low-end positioning and declining domestic demand, but recent trends show a shift towards high-displacement motorcycles, with exports of over 35,900 units of 250cc and above motorcycles, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 38.6% over five years [17][21]. Group 2: New Consumer Trends - The rise of "new consumption" emphasizes self-satisfaction and experiential purchases, with high-displacement motorcycles becoming symbols of adventure and social interaction among younger consumers [19][21]. - The domestic market for high-displacement motorcycles has seen a significant increase in penetration from 1.5% to 7.5% between 2019 and 2024, driven by changing consumer preferences and outdoor activities [24][25]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Domestic brands, particularly the "Big Three" (Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang), have captured approximately 60% of the high-displacement motorcycle market, with projected sales of 150,000 to 180,000 units each in 2024 [25][26]. - The competitive dynamics have shifted, with traditional foreign brands losing market share in the high-displacement segment, while domestic brands are gaining traction [32]. Group 4: Export Opportunities and Challenges - The export market for high-displacement motorcycles is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 50,000 units by 2025, indicating a strong demand for Chinese brands abroad [27][28]. - However, challenges remain in terms of production capacity, quality control, and brand recognition, particularly in comparison to established players like Honda, which dominates the global market [33][36][37].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 8 Jun 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 宽幅震荡升级在即，继续回避微盘股和新消费风险 Broad Consolidation About to Intensify; Remain Cautious on Micro-Caps and New Consumer Names 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为当前市场处于宽幅震荡中，回调仍未结束，尤其需要规避短期过热的A股小微盘股及港股新消费板 块。本周一，受中美贸易摩擦影响，恒生指数早盘一度跌近2.7%，恒生科技最多跌3.1%，两者从5月高点分别累计 回撤5.2%、8.9%。这波下跌充分释放了市场对中美贸易不确定性的担忧，因此市场进入宽幅震荡以来 ...