Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical line, indicating weak manufacturing sentiment[7] - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, but remains below the critical line, suggesting insufficient demand[11] - The inventory indices for raw materials and finished products are both below the critical point, indicating inadequate replenishment sentiment in manufacturing[16] Group 2: Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased to 50.2%, a rise of 0.1 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in business activities[21] - The new orders index for services is at 46.6%, below the critical line, pointing to weak demand conditions[21] - The business activity expectations index is at 56.5%, indicating a positive outlook for future service sector activities[21] Group 3: Construction Sector - The construction PMI is recorded at 51%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, but still above the critical line, indicating ongoing expansion albeit at a slower pace[27] - The new orders index for construction is at 43.3%, suggesting pressure on demand[27] - The employment index in construction is at 39.5%, indicating insufficient hiring sentiment in the sector[27] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The overall economic sentiment is supported by recent monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and structural adjustments aimed at economic recovery[30] - Risks include deviations from expected fundamental recovery, unexpected macroeconomic policies, and geopolitical uncertainties[31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed up collectively, with small - and medium - cap stocks slightly stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The market is currently in a policy vacuum period after the introduction of domestic macro - support policies, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2506) latest price is 3824.8, up 4.2; IH (2506) is 2668.6, up 1.4; IC (2506) is 5638.4, up 18.6; IM (2506) is 5998.0, up 40.6. For the next - main contracts, IF (2509) is 3751.8, up 1.4; IH (2509) is 2632.8, up 2.4; IC (2509) is 5455.2, up 12.0; IM (2509) is 5745.0, up 34.6 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1156.2, up 1.0; IC - IF spread is 1813.6, up 8.2; IM - IC spread is 359.6, up 21.4; IC - IH spread is 2969.8, up 9.2; IM - IF spread is 2173.2, up 29.6; IM - IH spread is 3329.4, up 30.6 [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: IF quarter - to - month is - 73.0, down 2.6; IH is - 35.8, up 1.8; IC is - 183.2, down 7.4; IM is - 253.0, down 6.8. For the next - quarter - to - month, IF is - 108.8, down 1.6; IH is - 35, up 3.8; IC is - 309.6, down 14.2; IM is - 428.8, down 14.0 [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions are - 28,697.00, down 138.0; IH are - 11,498.00, up 686.0; IC are - 11,705.00, up 1088.0; IM are - 30,786.00, down 1498.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - CSI 300 is 3852.01, up 11.8; SSE 50 is 2687.30, up 8.6; CSI 500 is 5694.84, up 23.8; CSI 1000 is 6070.04, up 43.5. IF basis is - 27.2, down 9.4; IH basis is - 18.7, down 7.2; IC basis is - 56.4, down 13.2; IM basis is - 72.0, down 11.5 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 11,638.30 billion yuan, down 4.16; margin trading balance is 18,009.47 billion yuan, down 84.23; north - bound trading volume is 1526.22 billion yuan, up 147.72; reverse repurchase: expiration is - 8300.0 billion yuan, operation is + 4545.0 billion yuan; main funds are - 496.74 billion yuan, down 95.94; the proportion of rising stocks is 62.64%, up 42.00; Shibor is 1.410%, down 0.061 [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score 6.50, up 3.40; technical aspect scores 6.30, up 4.30; capital aspect scores 6.70, up 2.60 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; comprehensive PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. New export and import order indices rose significantly [2]. - The US will raise steel import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting June 4 [2]. - The US extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation against China from May 31 to August 31 [2]. - The US accused China of violating the Geneva economic and trade talks consensus, and China firmly rejected the baseless accusation and urged the US to correct its wrong actions [2].

Industrial Performance - In the first four months, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in the previous period[2] - Cumulative profit for industrial enterprises rose by 1.4% year-on-year, up from 0.8% previously, with April's profit showing a 3.0% increase year-on-year[2] - Private industrial enterprises achieved a cumulative profit growth of 4.3%, recovering from a decline of 0.3% in the previous period[2] Price and Inventory Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for April showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive months[3] - Cumulative inventory of finished products in industrial enterprises increased by 3.9% year-on-year, down from 4.2% previously, marking the first decline since November 2024[3] PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, slightly up from 49.0% in April, with the production index exceeding the critical threshold[3] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI in May was 49.8%, an increase from 49.2% in April, while the export orders index rose to 47.5% from 44.7%[3] Employment and Sector Performance - The employment index for manufacturing in May was 48.1%, up from 47.9% in April, indicating a slight improvement in employment conditions[4] - The construction PMI for May was 51.0%, down from 51.9% in April, while the services PMI remained stable at 50.2%[4] Economic Outlook - June 18 is identified as a critical observation point for economic and policy developments, following the release of key economic data and the Federal Reserve's meeting[5] - The report highlights risks including external uncertainties and potential delays in counter-cyclical policies[6]

Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in May was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from April[1] Factors Influencing PMI - The rise in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by the implementation of proactive macro policies and a rebound in exports due to the easing of the US-China tariff conflict[2] - New credit and social financing in May were supported by a series of financial policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates[2] - The new export orders index and import index rose to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] Challenges and Limitations - Despite the improvements, the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, influenced by high tariffs over 40% from the US and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[3] - High-frequency data indicated a decline in operating rates in most industries, except for those related to infrastructure investment, which saw an increase[3] Price Trends - The manufacturing PMI's price indices both fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in a deep contraction zone, with PPI expected to decline further from -2.7% to around -3.1% year-on-year[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 51.5% for four consecutive months, indicating strong growth and resilience in this sector[4] Service Sector Insights - The service sector PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from April, supported by increased tourism during the May Day holiday[5] - The construction PMI fell to 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment activities[5] Future Outlook - The implementation of steady growth policies is expected to provide crucial support for macroeconomic operations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating infrastructure investment[6] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rise further to around 49.7% in June, driven by the "export rush" effect following the easing of tariffs[6]

Macroeconomic Overview - The May PMI indicates persistent weakness in domestic demand, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points[22] - April industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a 3.0% growth in April alone, reflecting some structural highlights despite overall economic challenges[11] Market Dynamics - The stock market experienced a slight decline with a weekly average trading volume of 1,093.9 billion CNY, down 79.4 billion CNY from the previous week, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03%[10] - The bond market showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.85 basis points, indicating ongoing pressure on long-term funding despite a stable short-term liquidity outlook[10] Trade and Policy Impacts - Recent U.S. trade policies, including new restrictions on AI chip exports to China, have limited market optimism, with expectations for further negotiations diminishing[1] - The U.S. International Trade Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs initially boosted market sentiment, but subsequent court actions led to renewed market weakness, highlighting the volatility in trade relations[1] Profitability Insights - April's profit growth of 2.6% compared to March reflects a 0.4 percentage point rebound, primarily driven by the "two new" policies benefiting the midstream equipment manufacturing sector[11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to continue its downward trend, with May's decline potentially widening, indicating ongoing pressure on profit margins[13] Risk Factors - Key risks include potential further deterioration in U.S.-China trade relations and weaker-than-expected economic fundamentals, which could exacerbate existing market vulnerabilities[1]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for May is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, still in the contraction zone[4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating a return to the expansion zone[4] - The new orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand[4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points, but remains below the levels seen in March (49.0%) and April[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months[4] - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium enterprises' PMI fell to 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points[5] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The raw materials price index is at 46.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating ongoing price pressure[4] - The finished goods price index is at 44.7%, also down 0.1 percentage points, suggesting weak downstream demand[4] - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index is at 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The production activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating improved business sentiment[6] - The overall economic environment shows a structural characteristic where supply exceeds demand, necessitating policy support to alleviate price pressures[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Iron ore: -2 (most bearish) [5] - Rebar: 0 (neutral) [9] - Hot-rolled coil: 0 (neutral) [9] - Ferrosilicon: -1 (bearish) [13] - Silicomanganese: -1 (bearish) [13] - Coke: -1 (bearish) [16] - Coking coal: -1 (bearish) [16] - Thermal coal: 0 (neutral) [19] - Logs: -1 (bearish) [24] 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore faces downward price risks due to weak demand expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to oscillate at low levels with negative feedback expectations leading [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon will experience weak oscillations due to poor demand expectations, and silicomanganese will also have weak oscillations as port ore transactions are under pressure [2][11]. - Coke has seen the second round of price cuts implemented and is expected to oscillate weakly, while coking coal is also expected to oscillate weakly [2][14]. - Thermal coal is stabilizing at the bottom stage [2][17]. - Logs are expected to oscillate weakly [2][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures price closed at 702.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan (-0.71%); open interest decreased by 1,831 hands. Spot prices of various iron ores declined, with the largest drop of 5.0 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads also changed slightly [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5% [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan (-0.77%); hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan (-0.55%). Spot prices in most regions decreased, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the weekly data on May 29, rebar production decreased by 5.97 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 13.87 tons; total inventory of rebar decreased by 23.17 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.38 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 1.55 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons. On May 30, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week - on - week; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, down 0.87 percentage points week - on - week; the daily average pig iron output was 241.91 tons, down 1.69 tons week - on - week. In April 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons. In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily crude steel output decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, pig iron output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and steel output increased by 1.9% month - on - month [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of silicomanganese increased by 120 yuan/ton, while that of ferrosilicon decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross - variety spreads all changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of May 30, prices of various grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Manganese ore inventory at major ports decreased by 13.83 million tons week - on - week as of May 30. Some steel mills' procurement prices and volumes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were announced [11][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of coking coal in some regions decreased, and that of coke also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: Coking coal quotes at northern ports were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts in the top 20 members of the DCE changed [14][16]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2506 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Quotes of foreign trade thermal coal at southern ports and domestic thermal coal at production areas were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of the ZC2506 contract in the top 20 members of the ZCE did not change [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of most log products remained stable, with only a few showing small fluctuations [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 9.6% year - on - year [24].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the Section 301 investigation against China until August 31, originally set to expire on May 31. China has repeatedly lodged solemn representations with the U.S. over Section 301 tariffs, which violate WTO rules, disrupt international trade, and burden U.S. businesses and consumers [2] - Goldman Sachs' commodities research team said the U.S. is investigating copper imports under Section 232 and has doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50%, increasing the likelihood of copper import tariffs. Goldman Sachs raised its H2 2025 aluminum price forecast by $140/ton to $2280/ton, expecting it to drop to $2100/ton in early 2026 and reach $2230/ton and $2500/ton in 2026 and 2027 respectively, lower than previous forecasts [2] - The U.S. April core PCE price index rose 2.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised 2.7%, the smallest increase in over four years. The "super core inflation indicator" also hit a four-year low. Traders still bet on a Fed rate cut in September [3] - China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 ppts month-on-month; non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 ppt; composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 ppts. New export and import order indices rose 2.8 and 3.7 ppts respectively. Some U.S.-related enterprises reported improved foreign trade [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the third consecutive monthly increase. The eight OPEC+ members will meet on July 6 to decide August production policy [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, lithium carbonate, asphalt, soybean oil, hot-rolled coils [4] - Sector percentage changes: non-metallic building materials 2.71%, precious metals 30.65%, oilseeds and fats 11.88%, soft commodities 2.44%, non-ferrous metals 19.05%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.59%, energy 2.60%, chemicals 12.83%, grains 1.58%, agricultural and sideline products 2.67% [4] 3. Sector Positions - Information about the recent five-day changes in commodity futures sector positions is presented, but specific numerical changes are not clearly stated [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.47% daily, with a monthly change of 0.00% and an annual change of -0.13%. Other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also had different performances [7] - Fixed income: 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures had different daily, monthly, and annual changes [7] - Commodities: CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, etc., showed various changes [7] - Others: The U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility index also had corresponding changes [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights the relationship between contract goods and industrial enterprise profits, indicating that inventory destocking and order prosperity are key directions for asset allocation [5][7] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery in manufacturing market demand, although it remains below the first quarter average [11][12] - The report notes that the domestic equity market showed a mixed performance, with 18 industries rising and 13 falling, indicating sector-specific dynamics [6][20] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of external factors such as the U.S. increasing steel import tariffs to 50%, which may affect related industries [17] - It mentions the extension of certain exemptions from the U.S. Section 301 tariffs on China, which could influence trade dynamics [19] - The report emphasizes the need for policies to support growth in light of ongoing economic challenges, particularly in the real estate sector [11][14] Group 3 - The analysis of industrial enterprise profits shows a 3.0% year-on-year increase in April 2025, despite a 2.7% decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), suggesting a complex relationship between costs and profitability [7][8] - The report identifies sectors such as agricultural product processing and electrical machinery as performing well, while sectors like automotive and power equipment faced declines [6][8] - The report indicates that the recovery in manufacturing is supported by a decrease in raw material costs, which may benefit midstream manufacturing leaders [7][8]

Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [2][10][52] - The new export index remains low, while domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI shows overall improvement, with production and new order indices rising by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion threshold, while the new order index remains in contraction territory, indicating faster production but weaker demand [2][10] - Industries with high domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, have seen PMIs rise by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [2][21] - Conversely, export-dependent sectors like textiles and chemicals have underperformed, with production and new order indices below the critical point [2][21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, with the construction sector experiencing a notable decline due to weak real estate performance [2][67] - The construction PMI fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51%, while civil engineering activities are accelerating, as indicated by a PMI of 62.3% [29][67] - Service sector PMI saw a marginal increase to 50.2%, driven by improved activity in tourism and dining during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, necessitating close monitoring of fiscal policies' impact on domestic demand [45] - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs has created a temporary freeze on tariff enforcement, adding to the external uncertainties [45] - Service consumption and infrastructure investment are expected to be key areas for fiscal support, potentially enhancing domestic demand [45]