Core Viewpoint - The February PMI shows a mild recovery post-Spring Festival, with a clear "strong-weak" differentiation in structure [2][9]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery, albeit moderate [5][16]. - Key sub-indices such as production and new orders showed significant recovery, with production index increasing by 2.7 percentage points to 52.5% and new orders index rising by 1.9 percentage points to 51.1% [5][16]. - The new export orders index remains in contraction at 48.6%, despite a 2.2 percentage point increase [5][17]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%, with construction PMI showing a notable rise of 3.4 percentage points to 52.7% [5][18]. - Service sector PMI declined by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, with significant drops in consumer-related sectors such as retail, accommodation, and catering [4][19]. Industry Observations - Capital-intensive industries like high-tech and equipment manufacturing show higher PMI levels, while labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries remain below the expansion threshold [3][12]. - In the construction sector, the increase in the construction PMI indicates accelerated infrastructure work, while real estate performance appears weaker [3][13]. Future Outlook - The economic recovery foundation remains fragile, with potential export risks increasing. Continuous monitoring of incremental policy changes is necessary [4][15]. - The manufacturing PMI's slight recovery above the neutral line suggests a moderate recovery level, with ongoing export pressures evident [4][15].

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 节后开复工正常推进。每年春节分布不同，年初数据非直接可比。2025年春节与2017、2022年相 似，均处于1月底。从PMI走势看，也呈现类似的规律：1月较前值下降，2月较1月回升。从2月环比前一年 12月的变化来看，2017为0.2；2022年为-0.1；2025年为0，季节性斜率大致相当，显示节后开复工在正 常推进。不过从绝对值看，2025年2月只有50.1，弱于2017年的51.6，略低于2022年2月的50.2，景气中 枢仍需继续提升。 第二， 出口订单依旧较为平稳。2月生产、订单、出口订单环比分别上行2.7、1.9、2.2个点。近年出口订单 基本上波动在47-48的水平，比如2023年均值47.5、2024年均值48.4，今年2月的48.6属于正常水平。不 过鉴于海外逆全球化政策仍在继续升级过程中，对于后续外需风险仍需保持警惕。 第三， 大型企业和小型企业的景气度差值扩大（图）。2月大企业和小企业PMI分别为52.5、46.3，6.2的差 值高于2024年均值的2.7。除了小企业节后劳务上工率约束这一季节性因素外，可能还包含 ...