Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to fluctuations in international oil prices, marking the seventh price cut of the year [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - From August 26, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 180 yuan and 175 yuan per ton, respectively [1] - Year-to-date, domestic oil prices have experienced 17 adjustment windows, resulting in a net decrease of 405 yuan for gasoline and 390 yuan for diesel compared to the end of last year [1] - The price adjustments translate to a reduction of 0.14 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.15 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel, respectively [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The average price of reference crude oil was reported at $65.07 per barrel with a change rate of -3.90% as of August 26 [2] - Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand, with the International Energy Agency lowering the 2025 global oil demand growth forecast and increasing the supply growth forecast by 400,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Russia regarding the Ukraine situation, have contributed to fluctuations in international oil prices [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for oil is anticipated to decline as the summer driving season comes to an end, while OPEC+ production increases and US oil production rises [2] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may boost global fuel demand, but geopolitical uncertainties will likely continue to cause volatility in international oil prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which is perceived as a direct intervention in the Fed's independence, leading to a decline in the dollar's value and a subsequent increase in gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a significant increase of $30 following the announcement, with the dollar index dropping approximately 30 points [1]. - The market sentiment shifted dramatically due to the news, resulting in a strong upward movement in gold prices, which reached a high of $3376 before closing at $3365 [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, but concerns about the sustainability of upward momentum exist, as market participants are cautious about the potential volatility [2]. - The dollar index is currently fluctuating within a moving average range, creating uncertainty for gold's price direction [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Recommended trading strategy involves operating within a range of $3355 to $3380, with a stop loss of $5 and a take profit target of $15 to $20 [3]. - Traders are advised to be cautious and consider waiting for stabilization at key support levels before entering long positions, while also being prepared to short if resistance levels are encountered [2][3].

Geopolitical Risks - The intensifying competition between the US and China, particularly regarding Taiwan and South China Sea tensions, may trigger a phase of impulse-driven gold price increases by 2025 [1] - The global election year effect, with elections in 65 countries including the US, India, and Brazil, could lead to policy uncertainties, especially if extreme outcomes arise in the US elections, thereby elevating risk aversion [1] - The risk of uncontrolled AI governance may lead to market panic, reinforcing gold's status as a "safe haven" in the digital age [1] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally have purchased over 1000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, with emerging market central banks (e.g., China, India, Turkey) expected to continue leading purchases in 2025 [3] - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves to 2298 tons by June 2025, marking eight consecutive months of accumulation, although the pace may slow due to high gold prices [3] - An increase of 100 tons in central bank gold purchases could reduce gold price volatility by 0.8% per quarter, but the "buy the expectation, sell the fact" effect should be monitored [3] Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - Key Federal Reserve meetings in 2025, particularly in March, June, September, and December, will be crucial for interest rate decisions and economic forecasts [3] - If inflation falls to the 2% target, a rate cut may occur in June, potentially driving gold prices up by 5-8% [3] - A 1% increase in the divergence of the dot plot could lead to a 1.2% increase in gold price volatility [3] Quarterly Price Forecasts - Q1 2025: Gold price expected to range between $2050-$2150, driven by US-China tensions and the US election primaries [5] - Q2 2025: Price forecasted at $2100-$2200, influenced by ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, with potential Fed rate cut signals [5] - Q3 2025: Anticipated price range of $2150-$2250 as global election results stabilize risk appetite and the Fed confirms a rate cut [5] - Q4 2025: Price expected between $2100-$2200 due to AI governance controversies and Fed adjustments to rate cuts [5]

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-26原油早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2510： 1.基本面：乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，他计划与美国特使凯洛格讨论与俄罗斯总统普京可能的会晤的 准备工作；匈牙利油气集团MOL表示，如果没有德鲁日巴管道供应，中欧可能在短期内面临燃料短 缺，可能导致燃料价格上涨，匈牙利和斯洛伐克周五表示，在乌克兰最近袭击俄罗斯的一处设施后， 通过德鲁日巴管道的石油供应可能会暂停至少五天；中性 2.基差：8月25日，阿曼原油现货价为70.11美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.57美元/桶，基差 28.65元/桶，现货平水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至8月15日当周API原油 ...

做投资就像打一场战役，一定要在战役开始前定好策略，不仅要在战场上有优势的时候要怎么扩大优势，趁胜追击，而且还要制定若不敌该怎么办，怎么保 存实力撤退后再定计谋，再战。无论战争也好投资也罢，不是每一次的背水而战都能迎来胜利，历史上也只是有几次背水而战胜利的结果，就好比投资市场 里面本来趋势已经走出相反的信号，还去奢求按照自己的意愿去走，一旦有这样心理的朋友，一定要注意，此毛病不改将会被投资市场所淹没。提前预判， 先人一步，抢占先机，轻仓顺势，严格风控，轻松把握，愉快投资。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周一欧市早盘，黄金小幅下跌，目前交投在3363美元附近。但就在上周五，金价可是上演了精彩逆袭，单日大涨1%，盘中更是一举冲上 3378美元的两周高位，最终收报3371美元。这波强势反弹的关键推手，正是美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔央行年会上的重磅讲话。鲍威尔这次表态堪 称"及时雨"，不仅有效缓解了市场对通胀的担忧，更点燃了投资者对9月降息的强烈预期。受此影响，美元汇率应声大跌，黄金市场瞬间被看涨情绪包围。 业内普遍认为，这次鸽派讲话已成为黄金市场的关键转折点，不仅推动金价反弹，还带动美元走弱和债市调整，为 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to price fluctuations in the crude oil market, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles for risk - avoidance [1]. - After Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech, the probability of a September interest rate cut is high, which affects the prices of precious metals, copper, and other commodities [2][3]. - The supply and demand fundamentals and policy expectations of various commodities such as base metals, energy, and agricultural products vary, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose. Geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine have increased, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles and then enter medium - term short positions after volatility increases [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Affected by the US sanctions on Iran, fuel oil futures rose. Global inventories showed a downward trend, and the fundamentals were relatively bullish [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has stabilized. Domestic imports and refinery outflows have increased, and the market is expected to remain volatile [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: After Powell's speech, the dollar fell, and precious metals rose. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and international gold and silver are in a volatile range [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price of copper rose. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September is high, and it is recommended to hold short positions at high levels flexibly [3]. - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate of aluminum has increased seasonally, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The price of aluminum is testing the upper resistance of the shock range [4]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has slightly decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and short - allocated in the medium - term [7]. - **Lead**: The price of lead is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to hold long positions with a support level [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is recommended to enter short positions actively [9]. - **Tin**: The price of tin has recovered. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price has fallen, and the market is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to control risks [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has risen slightly, and the market is expected to remain volatile [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to buy on dips [13]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in excess, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with the price of aluminum, and the spread with AL may narrow [5]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price of steel has rebounded. The market is facing negative feedback pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production restrictions in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level [15]. - **Coke**: The price is volatile. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is rising. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations [17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is weakly volatile. The demand is good, and the price is affected by policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is weakly volatile, following the trend of manganese silicon and affected by policy expectations [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: After the export news was released, the futures price fell. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the market is affected by sentiment and exports [24]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased slightly, and the inventory may accumulate to a historical high in the third quarter. The current situation is weak, and the future expectation is strong [25]. - **Styrene**: The futures price is in a consolidation state. The cost is weakly volatile, and the supply and demand are in a wide - balance state [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The price of propylene has been boosted by supply and demand. The supply pressure of polyethylene exists, and the demand for polypropylene is slowly recovering [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The price of PVC is expected to be weakly volatile, and the price of caustic soda is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and limited in the long - term [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX has strengthened, driving up the prices of PTA and downstream products. The supply and demand are expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has rebounded. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The medium - term focus is on policies and peak - season demand [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to consider long - term allocation. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Globally, the demand for bio - fuels may drive up soybean crushing. In China, the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a gap in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to enter long positions [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US policy on bio - fuels and the Indonesian government's policy on palm oil are the main drivers of price fluctuations. It is recommended to buy on dips [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The demand for rapeseed oil in the bio - fuel field is expected to increase, and the domestic supply and demand are tight [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of domestic soybeans is under pressure, and the price difference with imported soybeans has rebounded. It is necessary to pay attention to weather, policies, and trade [38]. - **Corn**: The price of Dalian corn may adjust upward in the short - term, but it may continue to run weakly at the bottom in the long - term [39]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of pigs is slightly stronger. The supply pressure is high in the medium - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the game between fundamentals and policies [40]. - **Eggs**: The spot price has rebounded slightly. If the price remains weak during the peak season, there may be a deep capacity reduction, and it is recommended to buy on dips [41]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton is in a narrow - range shock. The domestic market is worried about new - cotton pre - sales, and it is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar sales are good. The price is expected to be volatile [43]. - **Apples**: The price is volatile. The market is focused on the new - season output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Timber**: The price is volatile. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price is in a weak shock. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade in a range [46]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The freight rate is expected to continue to decline, and the market will follow the spot price to decline [20]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has risen, and the external macro - liquidity is stable. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of treasury bonds is falling. The A - share market is rising, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that despite ongoing inflation risks, gold prices surged significantly following Powell's dovish remarks, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve before September [1] - Upcoming key data releases include durable goods orders, GDP, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is favored by the Federal Reserve [1] - Powell indicated that stable unemployment and labor market indicators allow for cautious policy adjustments, despite the current restrictive policy stance [1] Group 2 - Analyst Felix noted that while gold prices rose, they have not yet surpassed the $3,400 per ounce mark, with geopolitical risks easing after optimistic news regarding Russia and Ukraine [1] - If gold prices rise above $3,400, the next resistance levels would be the June 16 high of $3,452 and the historical high of $3,500 [1] - Analyst Chad suggested that if gold prices retract, they may find support at the 50-day simple moving average around $3,350 per ounce, with further targets at the 20-day moving average of $3,345 and the 100-day moving average of $3,309 [2] Group 3 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish bias with resistance at $3,367 and support at $3,357, indicating strong momentum [3] - The daily chart for the euro against the dollar (EURUSD) also reflects a bullish direction, with resistance at 1.1678 and support at 1.1678 [4] - Key indicators to watch today include the German IFO Business Climate Index, U.S. new home sales, and the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led to a significant drop in the US dollar and a surge in gold prices, with traders anticipating a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut before September [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices closed up $33.05, or 0.98%, at $3,371.51 per ounce following Powell's remarks [2]. - The US dollar index fell nearly 1%, making gold relatively cheaper for buyers holding other currencies [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming US economic data includes durable goods orders, GDP, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is favored by the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Despite the recent surge, gold has not yet broken the $3,400 per ounce resistance level; if it does, the next resistance levels are $3,452 (June 16 high) and $3,500 (historical high) [4]. - If gold prices retreat, support may be found at the 50-day simple moving average around $3,350 per ounce, followed by the 20-day moving average at $3,345 and the 100-day moving average at $3,309 [6].

Group 1: Central Bank Strategies - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintains the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate unchanged, opting for targeted structural tools instead of broad rate cuts, reflecting caution towards financial risks and asset bubbles [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shows a clear inclination towards easing, having cut rates by 25 basis points in August and signaling potential further cuts due to concerns over economic growth and employment [2] - The Swedish Riksbank maintains rates but indicates a possibility of future cuts, attributing slightly higher-than-expected inflation to temporary factors, which may require policy reassessment if economic activity does not improve [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) emphasizes stability and data dependency, maintaining rates unchanged while signaling no urgency to adjust policy despite external economic challenges [3] - The Bank of Canada (BoC) faces a complex situation influenced by tariff scenarios, with rising expectations for rate cuts if economic conditions worsen [3] Group 2: Economic Data Insights - Upcoming Australian CPI data will be crucial for RBA's future decisions, with potential inflationary pressures from electricity prices impacting market expectations for further rate cuts [4] - Japan's CPI data shows a mixed picture, with overall inflation slowing but core inflation remaining above 3%, which may influence the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments [5] - The U.S. PCE data, a preferred inflation measure for the Federal Reserve, will directly affect market expectations for rate cuts, with geopolitical factors potentially influencing long-term inflation trends [5] - Weak Canadian GDP data, coupled with low inflation concerns, may provide further justification for the BoC to pursue easing measures to support economic growth [5] Group 3: NVIDIA's Financial Outlook - NVIDIA is expected to report strong quarterly results, driven by explosive demand for AI computing power, but the focus will be on future guidance, particularly regarding its exposure to the Chinese market [6] - The agreement between the U.S. government and NVIDIA, requiring a portion of revenue from China to be paid, along with potential AI export taxes, introduces significant uncertainty for NVIDIA's operations in China [6] - KeyBanc anticipates that NVIDIA may exclude Chinese revenue from its guidance, signaling deepening impacts of U.S. tech restrictions [6] - NVIDIA's financial results will have broader implications for the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain and the future of AI technology amidst U.S.-China tech competition [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent significant drop in gold prices, marking the first time in five years that prices fell below 1000 yuan per gram, with major brands like Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang adjusting their prices accordingly [3][6][9] - Zhou Dafu's gold jewelry is now priced at 1006 yuan per gram, down from a peak of 1029 yuan, while Zhou Liufu has dropped to 985 yuan, reflecting a decrease of nearly 40 yuan [6][9] - Banks offer more competitive prices for gold bars, with China Construction Bank quoting 786 yuan per gram, which is nearly 200 yuan cheaper than jewelry prices, making it an attractive option for investors [7][9] Group 2 - The decline in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a strong US dollar, which reached a year-high index of 108.3, and a reduction in geopolitical risks that traditionally drive investors to gold as a safe haven [9][10] - There has been a notable shift in investment flows, with funds that previously sought refuge in gold now moving towards Bitcoin and US stocks, leading to a significant reduction in gold ETF holdings by 45 tons over three months [9][10] - The overall demand for gold jewelry has plummeted, with sales dropping by 26% in the first half of the year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards renting rather than purchasing gold items [11][12] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of understanding the purpose of gold purchases, whether for personal use or investment, and advises consumers to be cautious and informed to avoid potential pitfalls [13][14] - It emphasizes the need for consumers to compare prices across different banks and stores, as discrepancies can lead to significant savings, with some banks offering gold bars at prices that vary by as much as 10 yuan per gram [14][21] - The article concludes with a portrayal of a consumer, Aunt Chen, who opts for a bank gold bar instead of jewelry, reflecting a more rational and cautious approach to gold investment among the general public [21][22]