转自：期货日报 自12月22日以来，沪银价格上涨超过25%。究其原因，是美联储降息与扩表预期、全球许多国家债务持 续膨胀预期、多个地区爆发地缘政治风险，以及伦敦白银1个月期租借利率持续处于相对高位引发供应 预期偏紧等因素综合作用的结果。 特朗普要求新任美联储主席必须坚定支持降息 特朗普对新任美联储主席提出明确要求，希望其在经济向好时降息，并直言凡是不认同这一立场的人， 都不可能出任美联储主席。特朗普可能在明年1月第一周任命新的美联储主席。美联储主席热门候选人 哈塞特表示，即便三季度经济表现超预期，美联储降息节奏也明显偏慢，美国已落后于全球降息进程， 应加快降息步伐。美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰警示，若美联储明年不继续推行降息政策，可能导致经济面 临衰退风险。美国财政部长贝森特建议，在消费端通胀稳步回落至2%之后，美联储会重新审视将通胀 目标由一个固定值转变为一个区间，例如1.5%~2.5%或者1%~3%。以上因素引发美联储未来的降息预 期。 虽然泽连斯基版本的"和平计划"草案中释放出"妥协的信号"，但即使被美方全盘接受，仍有可能遭到俄 罗斯拒绝，毕竟俄罗斯已经修改法律将占领地区纳入领土。此外，俄罗斯总统普京于12月 ...

Group 1 - The announcement from Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund (LOF) states that the Class C fund shares will suspend subscription starting December 29, 2025, to protect the interests of fund shareholders [1] - The Class A fund shares will be suspended from trading on December 29, 2025, until 10:30 AM, with a limit on regular investment amounts set at 100.00 yuan starting from the same date [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued two notices to remind the market to manage risks and to outline trading margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for related products during the New Year period [2] Group 2 - The silver market is significantly smaller than the gold market, with the total value of London silver stocks around 50 billion USD compared to gold's 1.2 trillion USD, leading to more volatile price movements with the same capital inflow [3] - Current silver price increases are supported not only by a loose monetary environment and geopolitical risks but also by industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector and the rise of electric vehicles [3] - Analysts warn that precious metal prices are at a precarious level, with expectations that silver prices may drop to around 42 USD by the end of next year as enthusiasm for gold wanes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in silver prices, highlighting the factors driving this increase and the potential risks associated with it [3]. Group 1: Silver Price Surge - On December 29, spot silver prices rose nearly 6%, approaching the $84 mark, setting a new historical high [1]. - The current market dynamics for silver are influenced by a combination of a loose monetary environment, geopolitical risks, and increased industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy and electric vehicle sectors [3]. Group 2: Market Regulations and Fund Adjustments - On December 26, the Guotai Asset Management announced that the Guotai Ruijin Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund (LOF) would suspend subscriptions for Class C shares starting December 29, 2025, to protect the interests of fund shareholders [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued notifications on December 26 to remind the market to manage risks and provided arrangements for margin ratios and price limits during the New Year period [3]. Group 3: Market Risks and Predictions - Analysts have warned that the current prices of precious metals, including silver, may be unsustainable and could face a significant correction, with predictions suggesting silver prices could drop to around $42 by the end of next year as enthusiasm wanes [3].

转自：期货日报 编辑：吴郑思 降息预期方面，海外市场基本维持2026年美联储可能进行两次降息的判断，且3月和7月是降息最可能发 生的时间段。截至12月28日下午，CME美联储观察模型由外盘联邦基金利率期货价格反推的2026年利 率预测显示，市场预计美联储2026年1月保持利率水平不变的概率为82.3%，降息25个基点的概率为 17.7%；直至2026年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为61.0%，保持利率水平不变的概率为39.0%；直至 2026年7月累计降息50个基点的概率为67.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为32.3%。对于美联储未来的变 化，美国财长贝森特暗示，美联储的政策框架可能面临重大调整，包括用通胀区间制取代固定的点位目 标，以及取消备受市场关注的利率路径点阵图。贝森特主张央行应缩小对经济的干预范围，回归更为传 统的幕后角色，并与财政部进行更有效的政策协同。若这些调整落地，如在美国通胀仍未达到2%的长 期目标之前就改用通胀"区间"目标，则将对美联储的市场信誉带来一定挑战；如取消每年4次的利率预 测点阵图，则可能弱化美联储对市场利率预期的引导作用，正如贝森特所说，可能缩小美联储对经济的 干预。不过，美 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The domestic key refining project price difference is 2557.23 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of +11.87 CNY/ton (+0.47%), while the international key refining project price difference is 1254.57 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of -43.45 CNY/ton (-3.35%) [2][3] - Brent crude oil's average price for the week ending December 26, 2025, is 61.73 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +2.74% [2][3] - The refining sector is affected by geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela and Russia, which have led to supply concerns and fluctuations in oil prices [2][15] - The chemical sector is experiencing weak demand, leading to a downward shift in chemical product prices [2][49] - Polyester production has seen a significant increase in sales volume, with downstream demand improving, which has positively impacted upstream prices [2][55] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude prices at 60.64 and 56.74 USD/barrel respectively, showing slight increases [2][15] - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6566.86, 7622.14, and 5716.07 CNY/ton respectively [2][15] Chemical Sector - The report notes a decline in demand for chemical products, with prices for polyethylene and EVA showing downward trends [2][55] - The average price for LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE is reported as 9000.00, 6329.29, and 8000.00 CNY/ton respectively, with corresponding price differences from crude oil [2][55] Polyester & Nylon Sector - The polyester sector has seen a significant increase in production and sales, with a notable reduction in inventory levels and a slight increase in prices for polyester filament yarn [2][55] - The report indicates that the nylon filament prices remain stable, with slight improvements in price differences [2][55] Stock Performance - The report provides stock performance data for six major refining companies, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Hengli Petrochemical (+11.01%) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (+12.12%) over the past week [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [6]. Core Insights - Precious metals are experiencing a surge in demand due to geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to record high gold prices [11][12]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are seeing price increases despite weak demand, driven by market speculation and supply constraints [13][14]. - New energy metals, especially lithium, are witnessing significant price increases, although spot trading remains sluggish [19][20]. - Other minor metals, such as rare earths, are experiencing price fluctuations, with some prices declining due to weak demand [24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and lower-than-expected inflation data have boosted gold prices to new historical highs, with significant interest in stocks like Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Lingnan [11][12]. - Silver and platinum prices are also rising, with specific stocks recommended for investment [12]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have increased despite a weak spot market, with the U.S. consumer price index rising by 2.7% year-on-year, enhancing expectations for interest rate cuts [13][14]. - Aluminum production is increasing in Xinjiang, while demand remains strong due to the automotive sector [17][18]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with significant increases in production and demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [19][20][23]. - The report highlights strategic investment opportunities in lithium stocks due to their potential in the electric vehicle supply chain [20][23]. Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are fluctuating, with praseodymium and neodymium experiencing a rise followed by a decline, while dysprosium and terbium prices are decreasing [24]. - The report suggests monitoring specific stocks in the rare earth and tungsten sectors for potential investment [24]. Market Review - The non-ferrous metal index rose by 6.4%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices, with significant gains in lithium chemical products [25][28]. - Notable stock performances include Yuyuan Powder Materials and West Materials, with increases of 41.87% and 24.02% respectively [25][35]. Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the non-ferrous industry is 29.55, indicating relatively low valuations for copper and aluminum sectors [40]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 3.28, suggesting room for growth in aluminum valuations due to supply constraints and increased demand for green metals [42].

黄金疯了，一路走高，而且狂奔加速。接连冲高跳水，多空较劲，但依然不改上涨的脚步，还处在连续 破高的路上，昨天冲高回落休整，继续看涨，续看历史新高。 下周的走势 昨天高开高走，再刷新高后。 又是闪跌调整，不过力度有限。 多头依然强势，下周继续看涨。 上方先看4550，再破高，看向4600的关口，不猜顶。 当然了，短期内依然存在调整的需求。 下方回落，可再探4500的关口。 黄金10月疯狂跳水后，到本月，一路回升，本周一度刷历史新高，涨没了所有的跌幅。重回巅峰，强势 不改，多头势头依然比较猛，继续看涨，而且看向4600的区域。同时，下方可调整空间拉大，可调整空 间看向4380的区域。 操作方面，黄金一路爬坡，而且加速冲刺，强势不改，看涨为主，关注4500和4437做多的机会。此外， 黄金冲高回落，小幅休整，不改强势，空单避让。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，地缘又起，全球各地战火纷飞，四处都散发着火药的味道，资本市场已经开启了收缩模式。俄 乌冲突扩容，美升级对委行动，两大主避险区不稳，加码资本对黄金的押注，提振黄金走强。 另外一方面，日央行又搞事情，加息后，又不断释放继续收紧信号，或继续加息步伐，又开始丢核弹。 以及重 ...

2025年的全球金融市场，黄金无疑是耀眼的"明星"资产。 国际金价从年初不足2700美元/盎司，到年末冲破4500美元/盎司关口，全年累计涨幅超70%，年内更刷 新历史高点50余次。国内市场同步升温，部分品牌足金饰品价格也顺势突破1400元/克，"黄金狂潮"席 卷资本市场。 金价剧烈起伏之间，有人坚定持仓，账面财富水涨船高；也有人追高入场被套，焦虑难眠。站在2025年 年末回望，这场黄金盛宴的悲与喜，不只是投资者的个人际遇，更折射出宏观经济、地缘政治与市场情 绪交织下的资产逻辑变迁。 视线投向即将到来的2026年，多重变量交织下，黄金市场的机遇与挑战仍在持续酝酿。面对充满变数的 市场，投资者究竟该如何布局？ 八年持金财富增值 "现在回头看，最正确的决定就是买了黄金，并且拿住了。"看到如今屡创新高的金价，张阿姨难掩兴 奋。 2017年，张阿姨手头正好有一笔闲钱，在银行客户经理的建议下，她以每克约300元的价格购入了50克 投资金条。当年投资黄金远未形成风潮，张阿姨说，她下单主要是出于对客户经理专业建议的信任，以 及"黄金长远看总是值钱的"朴素认知。 张阿姨告诉记者："银行客户经理当时提醒过投资风险，但我想着这钱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a historic surge, with silver prices rising significantly and setting new records, indicating a strong speculative interest and underlying industrial demand [2][4][13]. Group 1: Price Movements - Silver surged by 10%, reaching a peak of $79.405 per ounce, with an annual increase exceeding 170% [4]. - Spot gold hit a record high of $4549 per ounce, while NYMEX platinum rose by 11.84%, also achieving a historical peak [4]. Group 2: Market Behavior - A notable increase in trading activity was reported, with a jeweler in Hangzhou stating that customer transactions for silver have surged, reflecting a "frenzy" in buying behavior [12]. - A customer reportedly bought 5 kilograms of silver at 15 yuan per gram and sold it for 19 yuan per gram within a week, making a profit of 20,000 yuan [12]. Group 3: Underlying Factors - The current surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of a loose monetary environment, geopolitical risks, and increased industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy and electric vehicle sectors [13]. - The World Silver Association reported a continuous supply shortage in the market, with a projected cumulative shortfall of approximately 25,500 tons from 2021 to 2025 [13]. Group 4: Market Risks - Despite the long-term support from green energy demand, silver prices are at historical highs, which may suppress future demand. The current price levels may have already factored in optimistic expectations, leading to potential risks of a price correction [13].

Market Overview - The global precious metals market experienced a historic surge, with silver rising by 10% to a peak of $79.405 per ounce, marking an annual increase of over 170% [1] - Spot gold reached $4549 per ounce, setting a new historical high, while NYMEX platinum rose by 11.84%, also achieving a record [1] Price Movements - Current prices and changes for key metals include: - Spot platinum: $2459.50, up 10.39% with a year-to-date increase of 172.07% [1] - Spot lithium: $1925.00, up 11.69% with a year-to-date increase of 111.89% [1] - London silver: $79.329, up 10.47% with a year-to-date increase of 174.62% [1] - London gold: $4532.505, up 1.19% with a year-to-date increase of 72.72% [1] - NYMEX aluminum: $2060.50, up 14.04% with a year-to-date increase of 126.55% [1] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a loose monetary environment, geopolitical risks, and increased industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector [1][15] - The World Silver Association reports a continuous supply shortage in the market, with a projected cumulative shortfall of approximately 25,500 tons from 2021 to 2025 [15] Investor Behavior - There has been a notable increase in retail trading activity, with reports of customers profiting significantly from recent price movements in silver [11][13] - Some investors express concerns about the sustainability of the current price levels, indicating a potential for market corrections [13][15]