投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积飘红，金银价格回调 ——中信期货晨报20250710 中信期货研究所 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读 本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | | | 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | 板块 品种 | | | | 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 ...

Core Points - President Trump has issued eight letters regarding tariffs targeting various countries, with Brazil facing a significant 50% tariff, the highest announced to date [2][3] - The tariffs are part of Trump's broader trade agenda, which has caused market volatility and concerns among consumers and businesses regarding global trade flows [7] Group 1: Tariff Details - Brazil is the first country to receive the new tariff notice, with a 50% tariff set to take effect in August, attributed to the previous administration's handling of trade [3][4] - Other countries targeted include Algeria, Libya, Iraq, and Sri Lanka with tariffs of 30%, and Brunei and Moldova with 25%, while the Philippines faces a 20% tariff [3][4] - The tariffs on Iraq and Sri Lanka have been adjusted down from 39% to 25% and from 44% to 20%, respectively [3] Group 2: Trade Relationships - Brazil has a trade deficit with the U.S., importing approximately $44 billion worth of U.S. goods while exporting about $42 billion, making it one of the top 20 trade partners [4] - The other countries mentioned have smaller trade volumes with the U.S., with only the Philippines exporting around $14.1 billion, ranking it among the top 50 partners [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - The announcement of tariffs has led to a significant depreciation of the Brazilian real, with a maximum drop of 2.9%, and a 1.8% decline in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF during after-hours trading [4] - Despite the tariff announcements, market reactions have been muted, with traders focusing on the extended negotiation period until August 1 [4][5] Group 4: Future Negotiations - The U.S. Treasury Deputy Secretary indicated that negotiations could continue even after the tariffs take effect, aiming for a framework agreement by August 1 [6] - Trump has also threatened additional tariffs on specific industries, including a 50% tariff on copper products, which caused a 17% spike in copper prices [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. has extended the "reciprocal tariffs" delay by 90 days, pushing the implementation date from July 9 to August 1, while announcing tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries [1] - The EU is one of the economies most at risk from U.S. tariffs, with potential tariffs on EU goods possibly soaring to 50% if no agreement is reached by August 1 [3] - Japan's GDP could decline by 0.8% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2029 if subjected to a 25% tariff, with significant impacts on its aircraft parts and construction machinery industries [6][8] Group 2 - Canada has made significant concessions in trade negotiations with the U.S., including the cancellation of a digital services tax to reach a comprehensive trade arrangement [4][5] - Southeast Asian countries, particularly Malaysia and Thailand, expressed frustration over the U.S. tariff letters, feeling that their efforts to negotiate trade agreements were undermined [11][12] - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on India includes mixed effects, with certain sectors like pharmaceuticals possibly gaining leverage, while broader export categories may face challenges [10]

Core Points - The trade negotiations between the US and EU are at a critical juncture, with the US extending the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1, but tensions remain high [1] - The US is using tariffs as a pressure tool, demanding economic and regulatory concessions from the EU, while the EU struggles to balance a "principled agreement" with protecting its core interests [1][2] - The EU is considering countermeasures, including a plan to impose tariffs on US imports worth €21 billion, with a potential maximum tariff of 50% [2] Group 1: US Negotiation Strategy - The US has imposed a 10% base tariff on imports since early 2025 and plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on products from 14 countries starting August 1 [2] - The US aims for the EU to import more products from the US, such as natural gas, cars, and military equipment, while opposing EU consumer and climate protection regulations [2][3] - The US believes that certain EU taxes and antitrust actions against US tech companies are unfair [2] Group 2: EU Response and Internal Dynamics - The EU is firmly rejecting the US's demands for "reciprocal openness," particularly in technology regulation, fearing it would undermine internal regulatory unity [2][3] - There is a lack of consensus among EU member states, with Germany advocating for a swift agreement to protect its export industries, while Italy seeks to maintain good relations with the Trump administration [3][4] - France and Spain adopt a tougher stance, emphasizing the need to uphold European values and policies, while some Eastern European countries express concern over sacrificing their industries for EU unity [3] Group 3: Potential Outcomes and Implications - The EU may accept a "principled framework agreement" with the US, maintaining a 10% tariff on most exports while negotiating specific tariff reductions in areas like automobiles [5] - Experts warn that such an arrangement may not resolve structural issues between the US and EU, with potential conflicts over digital service taxes and green subsidies remaining unresolved [5] - The negotiations reflect a shift in global trade governance, with bilateral negotiations gaining precedence over multilateralism, raising concerns about the EU's strategic autonomy and bargaining power in future trade discussions [5]

以前总统遭审判为由 特朗普将巴西关税税率大幅上调到50% 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 金十数据7月10日讯，特朗普周三宣布，他计划对巴西征收50%的关税，部分原因是博索纳罗的遭遇， 这位巴西前总统被戏称为"巴西特朗普"。 特朗普在4月公布的所谓对等关税，巴西只面临最低10%的关 税。特朗普在最新的关税信函中告诉巴西现任总统卢拉，"巴西对待前总统博尔索纳罗的方式……是国 际耻辱。"特朗普一直激烈地为博索纳罗辩护，这位巴西前领导人面临密谋推翻2022年大选结果的指 控。"这场审判不应该进行，"特朗普补充道。特朗普还指责巴西政府"阴险地攻击自由选举和美国人的 基本言论自由权"，包括审查"美国社交媒体平台"。特朗普称与巴西的关系远非互惠互利，并总结 道："请理解，50%远远低于我们与贵国必须拥有的公平竞争环境所需的数字。" ...

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose new tariffs on products from several countries starting August 1, 2025, with rates of 25% for Brunei and Moldova, 30% for Algeria, Iraq, and Libya, and 20% for the Philippines [1][2] - The Philippines is the only country among the seven mentioned that is in the top 50 U.S. trading partners, exporting approximately $14.1 billion worth of goods to the U.S. last year, including electronics, auto parts, and textiles [2][4] - The total import value from the other six countries combined was less than $15 billion, with Iraq accounting for about half of that amount [4] Group 2 - Following the announcement of new tariffs, the Brazilian real hit a monthly low, with the USD/BRL exchange rate rising to over 5.4960 [6] - Trump indicated that the tariff rates were determined based on common sense, trade deficits, and historical data [5] - The new tariffs will be independent of any industry-specific tariffs, and companies from these countries can avoid tariffs by manufacturing in the U.S. [11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent increase in tariffs announced by Trump for 14 countries, effective August 1, which is close to the reciprocal tariffs from early April [1][14] - As of May, the average tariff rate in the U.S. was 7.4%, with specific rates for countries such as China (38.6%), Japan (9.3%), and the UK (6.2%) [2][15] - The U.S. may adopt a strategy of sending tariff increase notifications in batches to exert targeted pressure during negotiations [2][15] Group 2 - Trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan have reached a stalemate, particularly over issues related to automobile tariffs, while discussions with Mexico are nearing an agreement [3][16] - The EU aims for a limited framework agreement with the U.S., maintaining a 10% baseline tariff but seeking reductions in tariffs on specific products [3][16] - If all tariffs take effect on August 1, the simple average tariff rate for the U.S. on these 14 countries will rise to 29%, only 4 percentage points lower than the initial reciprocal tariff rate of 33% [5][18] Group 3 - Trump's tariff strategy aims to achieve three goals: industrial protection, addressing twin deficits, and leveraging diplomacy, which may create internal contradictions [4][17] - The concept of reciprocal tariffs is viewed as discriminatory, with trade deficit size being a key consideration for determining baseline tariff levels [4][17] - Approximately 100 economies with smaller trade surpluses with the U.S. may face a 10% tariff, while 18 countries could see higher tariffs ranging from 20% to 70% if no agreements are reached [5][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, focusing on the balance of funds, interest rates, and the impact of recent economic data on market sentiment. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 755 billion, with 985 billion maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 230 billion [2] - The funding environment remains balanced and loose, with stable funding rates; DR001 is around 1.32% and DR007 is around 1.48% [2] - June inflation data was weak, leading to fluctuations in the stock market, which peaked and then retreated [3][4] Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The weighted average rates for various repos are as follows: RO01 at 1.38%, R007 at 1.50%, and R014 at 1.54%, with total transaction volume at approximately 82,256.73 billion [3] - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.6435% and fluctuated slightly, reflecting market reactions to economic data and external factors [4] - There were reports of a province reducing the investment scale in agricultural commercial banks' bonds, which contributed to a slight increase in interest rates [4][5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Reactions - Market sentiment was stable in the bond market despite external pressures, with minor fluctuations in response to economic indicators [4] - The article mentions a "shame" felt by agricultural commercial banks regarding their lending capabilities and investment strategies, indicating a broader sentiment of distress within the sector [6][7]

年关税将带来1000亿美元 推文截图 特朗普贸然发函，激怒日本、东盟 据两名来自收到信函的国家的人士透露，当特朗普公布信函时，亚洲正处于深夜，且美方事先并未向各 国政府提前通知。Politico与六名现任外国官员、四名前官员以及其他知情人士的对话显示，他们对特 朗普发函的方式普遍感到愤怒。 其中一名政府官员表示："我们完全不知道他在发什么，寄给谁，或者怎么寄的。" 【文/观察者网 齐倩】"首先是震惊，其次是沮丧，然后是愤怒，"谈及对美国总统特朗普宣布对14国加 征关税的反应时，一名前日本官员用了三个词语予以形容。 据美国政治新闻网（Politico）7月8日报道，特朗普7日陆续公布了致14国的关税信函，其中10国来自亚 洲，并再次出言威胁。对于美国的亚洲贸易伙伴来说，特朗普贸然发函的举动，令他们感到沮丧和难以 置信。 此前，这些国家认为他们已经与美国进行了数月的真诚谈判，但现在来看，都是一厢情愿。 报道提及，白宫在与亚洲国家的贸易谈判中，特别施压他们"切断与中国的经济关系"。但这名前日本官 员表示，特朗普的关税"将把这些国家推向中国"。前美国驻缅甸大使也指出，特朗普此举恰恰证实了一 种在亚洲流传已久的说法，即 ...

隔夜，现货黄金下跌逾1%，盘中一度跌破3300美元关口，刷新逾一周低点至3287.06美元，收盘报3301.53美元。今日欧市盘中，黄金窄幅震荡，目前在 3303美元附近徘徊。 新高浪潮或正在酝酿！ 隔夜，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道琼斯指数下跌0.37%，报收于44240.76点；标普500指数下跌0.07%，报收于6225.52点；纳斯达克综合指 数上涨0.03%，报20418.46点。 消息面上，特朗普发出威胁，涉及关税。 当地时间7月8日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，根据7日发给各国的信函，以及接下来一段时间内将要发送的信函，关税将于 2025年8月1日开始实施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会改变"。 特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"，引发美国金融市场暴跌。在多方压力下，特朗普又在4月9日宣布暂缓对部分贸易对象征收高额"对等关税"90天， 但维持10%的"基准关税"。 7月7日，特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。 在特朗普发出上述关税威胁后，当地时间8日盘中，纽约期铜一度飙升超17%，最高触及5.8955美元/磅。 ...