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2025 年 09 月 10 日 宏观经济点评 宏 观 经 济 点 开 源 证 券 证 券 相关研究报告 PPI 同比增速回升或因输入性与地产链基数回落 《非美地区需求或仍锚定美国需求— 宏观经济点评》-2025.9.9 《国债买卖或重启，服务消费有望加 码—宏观周报》-2025.9.7 《 就业降温明显，但 50bp 降息尚需 通胀配合—美国 8 月非农就业数据点 评》-2025.9.6 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） | hening@kysec.cn | | | guoxiaobin@kysec.cn | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | | | 证书编号：S0790525070004 | | | 事件：8 月 | CPI | 同比-0.4%，预期-0.2%，前值 | 0%；PPI | 同比-2.9%，预期-2.9%， | 核心 CPI 环比连续五个月超季节性 8 月 CPI 同比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点至-0.4%；环比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点 至 0%。 1、鲜菜价格带动食品 CPI 环比回升 8 月 CPI ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the CPI remained flat month-on-month (previous value 0.4%) and decreased year-on-year to -0.4%, compared to a five-year average of 0.3% for the same period[2] - Food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month (previous value -0.2%) but decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth[4] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI turned flat month-on-month (previous value -0.2%), ending an eight-month downward trend, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.9% (previous value -3.6%) for the first time since March[20] - Production demand improvements supported price increases in some energy and raw material sectors, with the PMI production index rising to 50.8% (previous value 50.5%) in August[21] - The prices of coal processing rose by 9.7% month-on-month, while black metal smelting prices increased by 1.9%[21] Group 3: Food Price Trends - Pork prices decreased by 0.5% month-on-month (previous value 0.9%), significantly lower than the five-year average increase of 4.1%[7] - Egg prices rose by 1.5% month-on-month (previous value -0.3%), below the seasonal average increase of 5.9% over the past five years[7] - Fresh vegetable prices increased by 8.5% month-on-month (previous value 1.3%), while fresh fruit prices decreased by 2.8%[7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Outlook - Consumer confidence remains weak, with limited recovery potential for core CPI, as internal consumption dynamics are sluggish[26] - The agricultural sector is expected to stabilize pork prices, but supply pressures remain significant due to ongoing production adjustments[26] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence[33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In August 2025, China's CPI and PPI were flat month - on - month, with prices hovering at low levels. China's overall economic activity is in a moderate state, and the inflation level may continue to hover at a relatively low level for some time [4][14] Group 3: Summary of CPI - related Content CPI Year - on - Year Data - In August, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 0.2% decline and a previous value of flat. The average CPI from January to August was 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The year - on - year decline in CPI was mainly due to the higher comparison base in the same period last year and the fact that the food price increase in this month was lower than the seasonal level [2][5] - In August, food prices decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with the decline 2.7 percentage points larger than last month, pulling down the CPI year - on - year by about 0.51 percentage points more than last month. Non - food prices rose by 0.5% year - on - year, up from 0.3% in July. Core CPI rose by 0.9% year - on - year, up from 0.8% in July, with the year - on - year increase expanding for four consecutive months. Consumer goods prices decreased by 1.0% year - on - year, compared with a 0.4% decline in July. Service prices rose by 0.6% year - on - year, up from 0.5% in July [2][5] CPI Month - on - Month Data - In August, CPI was flat month - on - month, compared with a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Food prices rose by 0.5% month - on - month, with the increase about 1.1 percentage points lower than the seasonal level. Non - food prices decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, compared with a 0.5% increase in the previous month. Consumer goods prices rose by 0.1% month - on - month, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month. Service prices were flat month - on - month, compared with a 0.6% increase in the previous month. Core CPI was flat month - on - month, compared with a 0.4% increase in July [2][6] CPI Classification Data - In August, food and tobacco prices rose by 0.3% month - on - month, contributing about 0.09 percentage points to the CPI increase. Housing prices were flat month - on - month. Transportation and communication prices decreased by 0.3% month - on - month. Medical care prices rose by 0.3% month - on - month. Education, culture and entertainment prices decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. Clothing prices decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. Daily necessities and services prices decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. Other goods and services were flat month - on - month [7] CPI Trend Prediction - Since August, the wholesale price of agricultural products has risen from the low level in July, but the upward slope is much lower than that in August last year. Agricultural prices are expected to drive the CPI to rise month - on - month in September. From a month - on - month perspective, refined oil prices in September are likely to pull down the CPI [9] Group 4: Summary of PPI - related Content PPI Year - on - Year Data - In August, the national producer price index for industrial products (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with market expectations and an improvement from a 3.6% decline in the previous month. The average PPI from January to August was 2.9% lower than the same period last year [3][10] - In August, producer prices for means of production decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, contributing about 2.4 percentage points to the overall decline in industrial producer prices. Producer prices for means of subsistence decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, contributing about 0.45 percentage points to the overall decline in industrial producer prices [3][10][11] PPI Month - on - Month Data - In August, PPI was flat month - on - month, ending seven consecutive months of month - on - month decline. Producer prices for means of production rose by 0.1% month - on - month, contributing about 0.08 percentage points to the overall increase in industrial producer prices. Producer prices for means of subsistence decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, contributing about 0.03 percentage points to the overall decline in industrial producer prices [3][11][12] PPI Industry - specific Data - Industries with large month - on - month price increases in August included coal mining and washing (up 2.8% month - on - month), ferrous metal ore mining (up 2.1% month - on - month), and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing (up 1.9% month - on - month). Industries with large month - on - month price decreases included oil and gas extraction (down 1.1% month - on - month) and non - metallic mineral products (down 1.0% month - on - month). The automobile manufacturing industry saw a 0.3% month - on - month price decline for two consecutive months, indicating persistent price competition pressure [3][11][12] Group 5: Summary of Other Economic Indicators - In August, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.4%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The new orders index for the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, indicating that the market demand in the manufacturing industry was still slightly weak. The service business activity index was 50.5%, and the new orders index for the service industry was 47.7% [4][14]

Inflation Data Summary - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0% and market expectations of -0.2%[1] - Month-on-month CPI growth was 0%, down from 0.4% in July, primarily due to falling food prices[2] - August PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, an improvement from -3.6% in July, aligning with market expectations[5] Price Movement Insights - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year in August, with significant declines in pork (16.1%), fresh vegetables (15.2%), and eggs (14.2%)[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight increase from the previous month[3] - Industrial producer purchase prices decreased by 4% year-on-year, showing a minor improvement from -4.5% in July[7] Market Outlook - The second half of the year may see a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, supported by potential easing in US-China trade relations and risk mitigation from "stabilizing" funds[1] - A-shares are expected to experience a structural market with alternating low-value dividends and technology growth[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[1]

Group 1: Overview of Actions - The current comprehensive rectification of involution is a continuation and deepening of the supply-side structural reform initiated in November 2015[1] - The root cause of both actions is the overcapacity resulting from chaotic capital expansion, with the previous reform targeting upstream raw materials and the current action focusing on downstream manufacturing[2] - The previous reform utilized administrative orders to control production, while the current action requires industry self-regulation and detailed management due to the diversity of enterprises involved[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a crucial indicator of economic health, showing a correlation with stock market trends, particularly the CSI 300 index[3] - Historical analysis indicates that from 2014 to 2015, the stock market rose despite declining PPI, leading to a market correction when the fundamentals returned[3] - As of August 2025, the PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed, indicating positive changes that may support stock market growth[3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The comprehensive rectification action is expected to transform and boost the Chinese economy, particularly benefiting emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, as well as traditional industries like steel and coal[4] - This action is anticipated to create a series of investment opportunities in sectors historically plagued by overcapacity[4] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The transition towards a non-involutionary development model involves significant changes in development concepts and institutional frameworks, which may be a lengthy and complex process[5] - Local governments and enterprises may face difficulties and resistance in implementing these reforms effectively[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's CPI and PPI for August 2025, highlighting a decline in CPI and a narrowing drop in PPI, indicating potential shifts in consumer prices and industrial production costs [1][5]. CPI Analysis - In August 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with urban areas down 0.3% and rural areas down 0.6%. Food prices fell by 4.3%, while non-food prices rose by 0.5% [1][2]. - The average CPI for January to August 2025 showed a decline of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1]. - The month-on-month CPI remained flat, with urban prices stable and rural prices increasing by 0.1%. Food prices increased by 0.5%, while non-food prices decreased by 0.1% [1][2]. PPI Analysis - The PPI for August 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, but this was a narrowing of the drop by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. Month-on-month, PPI shifted from a decline of 0.2% to flat [5][6]. - The average PPI for January to August 2025 showed a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, with industrial producer purchase prices down by 3.3% [5]. - The month-on-month PPI ended an eight-month downward trend, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [5][6]. Core CPI Insights - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth in this metric [3][6]. Industry Price Changes - Certain industries experienced price increases due to rising consumer demand, with notable price hikes in the manufacturing of arts and crafts (up 13.0%), sports balls (up 4.7%), and musical instruments (up 1.6%) [7]. - The article notes that the implementation of proactive macro policies and improved market competition have contributed to a narrowing of price declines in various sectors [6][8]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that with ongoing domestic demand expansion policies and improved market competition, prices may see a moderate recovery. The PPI is expected to enter a recovery phase, supported by structural improvements in exports and economic growth [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests focusing on the central bank's attitude. Given the continued weakness in the bond market and the potential for further decline in Treasury bond futures the next day, it is recommended to wait and see for now [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Performance - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened and closed lower across the board. The decline of medium - and long - term varieties intensified in the afternoon, and spot bond yields rose across the board, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term. The open market had a net injection of 7.49 billion, but the capital market remained tight, with DR001 rising to around 1.43% [1]. - The prices of all contracts on the Treasury bond futures market decreased on September 10, 2025. For example, TS2512 dropped from 102.39 to 102.348, a decline of 0.042; TF2512 fell from 105.58 to 105.445, a decline of 0.135; T2512 decreased from 107.785 to 107.505, a decline of 0.28; and TL2512 dropped from 115.76 to 114.87, a decline of 0.89 [4]. - The contract positions of TS2512, T2512, and TL2512 increased, while that of TF2512 decreased. The trading volume of all main contracts increased [4]. b. Intraday News - The Ministry of Finance re - issued 5 - year Treasury bonds with a weighted winning bid rate of 1.5973% and a marginal rate of 1.6216%, and re - issued 50 - year Treasury bonds with a winning bid rate of 2.2227% [2]. - In August, China's CPI turned negative year - on - year, dropping 0.4%, while the core CPI rose to 0.9%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9% [2]. c. Market Analysis - The bond market continued its weak performance in the morning, and the decline intensified in the afternoon as the A - share market rebounded. Although the central bank increased its injection in the open market, the capital market did not improve. The winning bid situation of the re - issued 5 - year and 50 - year Treasury bonds in the primary market was better than expected, but it did not boost the secondary market sentiment. The economic data in August had a neutral impact on the bond market [3]. - After the futures market closed, spot bond yields continued to rise, indicating that Treasury bond futures may continue to decline the next day [3].

中国经济丨点评报告 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 关注 PPI 回升的持续性 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ——8 月通胀数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 8 月物价有积极变化，核心 CPI 同比涨幅连续 4 个月扩大，PPI 同比降幅收窄。但值得注意的 是，CPI 同比连续 30 个月在 1%以下震荡，PPI 同比连续 35 个月为负，指向国内需求仍较疲 弱，国际贸易环境不确定、部分行业产能过剩仍待优化。往前看：1）CPI 同比再度转负，强化 社会保障、多措并举提高居民收入是提振消费的关键。2）8 月 PPI 同环比数据均有改善，除了 基数影响，也得益于"反内卷"的有序推进，关注 PPI 同比改善的持续性和幅度。短期稳物价、 稳预期仍待需求侧政策的提振，地产领域已有积极调控政策推出，货币、财政或亦将有加码。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 宋筱筱 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1 [Table_Title ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in food prices, which fell by 4.3% [2][4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth in this metric [1][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stabilization after a decline of 0.2% in the previous month, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][7] Group 2 - The decline in CPI is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases, with the previous year's price changes contributing to a downward impact of approximately 0.9 percentage points on the current CPI [4][9] - The improvement in core CPI is seen as a positive signal for price trends, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [6][9] - The PPI's recent performance suggests a potential recovery in industrial prices, particularly in raw materials and industrial goods, although its impact on consumer prices remains limited due to insufficient end-demand [9]