Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of most non - ferrous metals are expected to be weak in the short term due to factors such as tariff policies, market sentiment, and supply - demand relationships [1][3][5][7][8][10][12][14][17]. - For copper, the price increase is limited in the current off - season, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by relatively low domestic ingot inventories, but the rebound space is limited due to the off - season and export pressure [3]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly as the supply remains loose [4]. - Zinc has a high risk of price decline as the industry data is weak and the previous supporting factors are weakening [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation and the upcoming resumption of production in Myanmar [6][7]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue to decline, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [8]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [10]. - Alumina is expected to maintain an over - capacity pattern, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [12]. - Stainless steel prices may maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the pressure level [14]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited rebound space due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [17]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. LME copper fell 0.66% to $9633/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78170 yuan/ton [1]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 21,000 tons, with different changes in each exchange. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,000 tons [1]. - The spot import of copper remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The domestic basis increased due to tight supply [1]. - The scrap - refined copper price difference was 800 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. - The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, while that of cable enterprises decreased [1]. - The expected trading range for SHFE copper this week is 76,800 - 79,600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9400 - 9900/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. SHFE aluminum fell 1.2%, and LME aluminum fell 2.26% to $2571/ton [3]. - The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract decreased by 76,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 49,000 tons [3]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 34,000 tons to 544,000 tons, and bonded area inventory decreased to 108,000 tons. Aluminum rod inventory increased by 2,000 tons [3]. - The spot in East China was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the buyer sentiment was weak in the off - season [3]. - The operating rate of domestic major aluminum product enterprises continued to decline, except for a slight improvement in aluminum rod [3]. - LME aluminum inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons, and Cash/3M was at a discount of $2.6/ton [3]. - The expected trading range for domestic SHFE aluminum this week is 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2520 - 2620/ton [3]. Lead - Last Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.07% to 16,736 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1966.5/ton [4]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton [4]. - SHFE lead futures inventory was 59,900 tons, and LME lead inventory was 276,500 tons [4]. - The supply of lead is expected to remain loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. Zinc - Last Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.15% to 22,320 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2749/ton [5]. - The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 103,200 tons [5]. - Zinc ore inventory continued to accumulate, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in August [5]. - The downstream operating rate declined significantly, and the short - term consumption of zinc ingots weakened [5]. - The risk of zinc price decline is expected to increase [5]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated downwards [6]. - The supply in Yunnan is currently short, and some smelters plan to stop for maintenance. The supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter [6]. - Domestic consumption is weak in the off - season, while overseas demand is strong due to AI computing power [7]. - The social inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [7]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the domestic price range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton and LME price range of $31,000 - 33,000/ton [7]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, closing at 119,770 yuan/ton, down 3.69% [8]. - The macro - environment and the overall over - supply situation of stainless steel and nickel iron put pressure on nickel prices [8]. - Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the expected trading range for SHFE nickel of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and for LME nickel 3M of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat on Friday, down 10.41% for the week [10]. - The price of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased [10]. - The supply - demand relationship is expected to improve, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [10]. - Speculative funds are advised to wait and see, and holders can choose appropriate entry points [10]. - The expected trading range for the main contract of lithium carbonate on GZEE is 66,700 - 71,500 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - On August 1, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.65% to 3153 yuan/ton [12]. - The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged, and the import window was closed [12]. - The futures warehouse receipts remained at a historical low [12]. - Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2509 of 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [14]. - The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged [14]. - The social inventory decreased slightly, but the 300 - series inventory increased [14]. - The stainless steel price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 13,130 yuan/ton [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, the futures price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated downwards, with the AD2511 contract down 1.07% to 19,920 yuan/ton [17]. - The weighted contract position decreased, and the price difference between AD2511 and AL2511 contracts increased [17]. - The spot price decreased, and the downstream trading was light in the off - season [17]. - The production cost decreased, and the production volume increased slightly [17]. - The inventory increased, and the price rebound space is limited [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★☆★ [1] - Apple: Not rated - 20 - rubber: Not rated - Natural rubber: Not rated - Synthetic rubber: Not rated - Log: Not rated Core Views - The market sentiment of various soft commodities is generally weak, with most commodities showing downward trends or lack of clear upward momentum. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for most commodities, while maintaining a bullish view on logs [2][3][6][7]. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract reducing positions and the 01 contract increasing positions at a slower rate. The enthusiasm for long - positions was hit. - In July, cotton inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, and processing profits were under pressure. - Warehouse receipts were digested slowly, and there were concerns about their quality. - The anti - involution trading cooled down, and the 9 - 1 spread dropped significantly. - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. - It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of July was moderately bearish. - In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good but may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of the 25/26 sugar production in Guangxi. - US sugar is in a downward trend, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. - As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. The weekly cold - storage apple destocking volume last week was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. - The market is focused on the new - season apple production estimate. There are still differences in the production forecast. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - RU&MR continued to decline, and BR fluctuated weakly. International trade risks increased, and the sentiment in the rubber market weakened. - Global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, and there is heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. - The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased this week, but some plants will be under maintenance in early August. - The operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires declined. - Rubber inventories increased. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.105 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. - Domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. - The price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Log - The futures price fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. - The shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level, and the supply was low. - As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 cubic meters, an increase of 2.72%. - The total log inventory at national ports was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. - The supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. It is expected that the futures price will continue to rise, and a bullish trading strategy is recommended [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract significantly reducing positions and the 9 - 1 spread also falling. The inventory depletion rate slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with downstream purchasing for rigid demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In the 25/26 crushing season, the estimated sugarcane yield per hectare in central - southern Brazil decreased by 6.5% year - on - year. However, most international consulting firms still expect the sugar production in central - southern Brazil to exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons, and 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although Guangxi had an increased production this year, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a fast sales pace. The upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but were affected by high - temperature weather, resulting in poor coloring and some quality problems. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. Last week, the cold - storage apple removal volume was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. There are still differences in production estimates. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined, and the sentiment in the rubber market continued to weaken. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber were generally stable. Globally, the natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, and there is more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to rise, and some plants have maintenance plans. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased. The demand from the tire market was average, and the inventory of finished tires increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Pulp continued to decline. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.143 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated, and the mainstream spot prices remained stable. The shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level. As of July 25, the average daily log outbound volume from 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. The total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to rise. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★☆★ [1] - 20 - numbered rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding operation suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract significantly reducing positions and the 9 - 1 spread dropping. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. In June 2025, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, a new low in the past 20 years. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and downstream procurement was for rigid demand. It's advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. For the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region, the expected sugarcane yield per hectare is 72 tons, a 6.5% year - on - year decrease. However, most consulting companies believe the sugar production will exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it's advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a 44.57% year - on - year decrease. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. It's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - numbered Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined, and the rubber market sentiment weakened. The global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded, but some plants are planning to have maintenance in early August. The demand in the terminal market is average, and tire inventories are increasing. It's advisable to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Pulp continued to decline. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.143 million tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease. The domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The supply from New Zealand is low. As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports increased by 2.72% week - on - week. The total log inventory at national ports decreased. The supply - demand situation has improved, and it's advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing developments in the US-China trade negotiations and their potential impact on the market, particularly the US dollar and gold prices [4][5][6] - The US dollar index has risen, reaching a five-week high above the 99 mark, as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and key economic data [1] - Gold prices have halted a four-day decline, briefly touching the $3330 mark but failing to maintain that level, indicating volatility in precious metals [2] Group 2 - The third round of US-China trade talks has been characterized by constructive dialogue, with both sides recognizing the importance of a stable economic relationship [4] - Continuous communication between the US and China is expected to facilitate the stable and healthy development of bilateral trade relations [5] - The market sentiment suggests that the A-shares in China are likely to continue rising due to positive developments in trade negotiations [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ★☆★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides operation suggestions such as temporary observation or intraday trading based on their respective market conditions [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton dropped significantly, funds shifted to far - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to decline. Spinning mills' point - price improved. As of July 15, cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. In June 2025, cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, cumulative imports were 460,000 tons, a 74.3% year - on - year decrease. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with downstream rigid - demand procurement. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the main producing areas was slow this year, with a significant year - on - year decline in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production. In July, rainfall in the main producing areas decreased. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the European Meteorological Center's medium - term forecast predicted a possible decrease in later rainfall, increasing the uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season. Overall, the US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It's expected that sugar prices will remain volatile in the short term, and operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price corrected. For early - maturing apples, bagged Qinyang apples were sporadically on the market with high opening prices. Affected by high - temperature weather, early - maturing apples had poor coloration and some quality problems. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a 44.57% year - on - year decrease. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 86,000 tons, a 20.66% year - on - year decline. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. In the western producing areas, although affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the low - temperature impact on production was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in production estimates. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated weakly, NR and BR continued to decline, and the rubber market sentiment was weak. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, the synthetic rubber spot price decreased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price generally declined. Globally, natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there is more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, and some plants had restart or load - reduction plans. In August, several petrochemical plants plan to conduct centralized maintenance, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate increased. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate decreased slightly, the semi - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, terminal market demand was average, and tire finished - product inventory continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 640,400 tons, the bonded - area inventory decreased while the general - trade inventory increased. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 12,800 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory continued to decline to 15,700 tons. Overall, demand is weakening, supply is increasing, rubber inventory is rising, trade negotiations are going smoothly, there are potential policy benefits, and the hype sentiment has cooled down. Strategically, it's advisable to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Today, pulp dropped slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,450 yuan/ton; the price of eucalyptus pulp Jinyu was 4,150 yuan/ton. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.143 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% month - on - month decline. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, pulp demand is still weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and demand is in the traditional off - season. With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, the pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the price may return to low - level fluctuations. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated at a high level. In terms of supply, the shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level. As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume fluctuated around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation was good. As of July 25, the total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 cubic meters. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. As the peak season is approaching, logs will gradually destock, the short - term spot price will rebound, and it's expected that the futures price will continue to rise. Operationally, it's advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the domestic child - rearing subsidy policy is of positive significance for enhancing fertility willingness and driving related consumption. Attention should be paid to whether the China - US economic and trade negotiations achieve more than expected progress. The market is rotating at the current position. In the short term, it is necessary to observe whether blue - chip stocks start to make up for lost ground, and opportunities in IH can be grasped on dips [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestically, the national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was officially announced. Starting from January 1, 2025, a child - rearing subsidy of 3,600 yuan per year will be provided for each child until the child reaches the age of 3. Eligible infants under 3 years old can apply for the subsidy, and those born before January 1, 2025, and under 3 years old can receive the subsidy based on the number of months. It is expected that localities will open the application for the subsidy in late August. The China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. Overseas, Trump said he might impose a unified tariff of 15% - 20% on imported goods from countries that have not negotiated a separate trade agreement with the US [1] - In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12% to close at 3,597.94 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.96%. The defense and military, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology industries led the gains, while the coal, steel, transportation, and petroleum and petrochemical industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.74 trillion yuan. In overseas markets, the three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.14%, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new highs [2] - In the futures market, the basis trends were differentiated. The basis of IH rebounded, while the discounts of IC and IM deepened. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IF, IC, and IM increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - The implementation of the domestic child - rearing subsidy policy is positive for fertility willingness and related consumption. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations. The market is rotating, and short - term attention should be paid to whether blue - chip stocks make up for lost ground. Opportunities in IH can be grasped on dips [3] Macro - economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [6][8][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on July 28, 2025: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.96%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.21%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.00%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.38%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.35% [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 92,993 (an increase of 547), open interest was 263,839 (an increase of 3,663); IH trading volume was 46,357 (a decrease of 870), open interest was 95,447 (a decrease of 1,993); IC trading volume was 88,191 (an increase of 11,258), open interest was 228,690 (an increase of 3,134); IM trading volume was 186,257 (an increase of 26,844), open interest was 338,751 (an increase of 11,728) [15] - The basis of stock index futures: for IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 4.62 (a decrease of 0.26), etc.; for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was 3.23 (an increase of 3.14), etc.; for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was - 49.42 (a decrease of 11.03), etc.; for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was - 55.38 (a decrease of 16.97), etc. [40] - The inter - delivery spread of stock index futures: for example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 9.20 (a decrease of 2.40), etc. [44][45][46]

| 《八� 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月28日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ★★★ | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所回落,盘中价格触及震荡区间上沿。内地棉花现货基差偏稳。部分棉企报盘数量减少,下游纷企维持刚需采购。7 月上半月棉花库存去化速度有所效缓，截至7月15号，棉花商业库存为254.24万吨，环比6月减少28.74万吨。国内6月份棉花进 口延续偏低的趋势，2025年6月进口3万吨，再创近20年新低，同比降12.53万吨，环比降0.45万吨；20 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. has made progress in trade negotiations with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, with agreements expected before the August 1 deadline[1] - A key event is the third round of U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for July 28 in Stockholm, which may yield new outcomes regarding export controls[1] - The U.S. Federal Circuit Court will rule on July 31 regarding the legality of Trump's tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), impacting global trade dynamics[1] Group 2: Tariff Analysis - Trump's tariffs can be categorized into three types: a 20% tariff on fentanyl-related products from China, a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on various imports based on trade deficits[2] - The International Trade Court ruled on May 28 that Trump's global and retaliatory tariffs were invalid, asserting that tariff authority lies with Congress, not the President[2] - The upcoming court ruling on July 31 could result in four scenarios, including upholding the International Trade Court's decision, which would invalidate Trump's tariffs[3] Group 3: Implications for China - If the court rules against Trump's tariffs, China may gain leverage in future negotiations with the U.S.[4] - Conversely, if the court supports Trump's tariffs, negotiations may become more challenging, requiring further concessions from China[4] - The potential for Trump to utilize other administrative measures to impose tariffs remains if the court ruling is unfavorable[4] Group 4: Upcoming Events and Risks - Key upcoming events include the U.S.-China trade talks from July 27 to 30 and the court debate on July 31, which will influence tariff policies[4] - Risks include the possibility of U.S. trade negotiations introducing terms detrimental to China's interests and the potential for increased geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea region[5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around the upcoming third round of trade negotiations between the US and China in Stockholm, which will also address China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran, indicating a shift towards incorporating geopolitical issues into economic discussions [1][3][4] - The US Treasury Secretary's comments suggest a strategy to use energy procurement as leverage in trade talks, aiming to pressure China into concessions in other areas [3][4][6] - China's response emphasizes the importance of keeping trade negotiations focused on economic issues, rejecting the inclusion of geopolitical matters such as oil procurement [4][6][9] Group 2 - The article highlights the significance of the trilateral meeting between China, Russia, and Iran, which underscores their collective stance on regional stability and fair international order amidst US sanctions and pressures [6][9] - The changing attitudes of the UK, France, and Germany towards Iran indicate a recognition that sanctions alone may not resolve the nuclear issue, reflecting a need for a more balanced approach that considers their own economic and energy interests [7][9] - The evolving international dynamics suggest that the interplay of geopolitical and economic interests is increasingly complex, with various nations reassessing their strategies in light of the US's unpredictable actions regarding Iran [7][9]