特别是特种钢领域，新规影响显著。有消息称，某国造船业因特种钢供应问题急得跳脚，另一国相关产业也高度依赖此类产品。新规实施后，定价权将逐 渐掌握在主动方手中，资源出口的"闸门"收紧，即便对方拥有大量货币，没有相关许可文件，也难以获得所需产品。 在国际市场上，产能过剩并非个别现象，美国的大豆、法国的葡萄酒奢侈品等都被指存在产能过剩问题。此次钢铁出口新规，不仅是对自身产业的有力保 护，更是在国际经贸规则博弈中争取主动的积极尝试，未来走向值得持续关注。 近期国际经贸领域出现新动态，颇具看点。此前，欧美方面频繁指责他国"产能过剩"，并采取加征关税等手段施压。如今，局势有了新变化，从2026年 起，某地区将实施钢铁出口新规，所有钢铁出口均需获得"许可证"，这意味着购买方需先填写申请表。 这一举措意义重大。过去，相关产业在发展过程中，虽为全球市场提供了大量产品，却遭遇不公正对待，被无端指责倾销，还承受着环境污染等方面的压 力。如今新规出台，是对不公平指责的有力回应，如同"以彼之道还施彼身"。欧美限制芯片等产品销售，而这边则在钢铁出口程序上"严格"把控。 ...

Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) materials industry is experiencing strong market demand but is simultaneously facing widespread losses across the sector [1][3][5] - Major companies are adjusting product prices in response to rising raw material costs and prolonged industry losses [1][3][6] - The industry is exploring sustainable development paths through standardization and cautious capacity expansion [2][7][8] Industry Overview - The LFP materials sector has been in a state of loss for three consecutive years, prompting companies to seek price adjustments to recover profitability [1][3][5] - Key raw materials, including sulfur and sulfuric acid, have seen significant price increases, contributing to the overall cost pressures faced by LFP manufacturers [3][4][6] - Despite high demand in the energy storage and electric vehicle markets, the industry is grappling with structural overcapacity and high debt levels among leading firms [4][6][7] Price Adjustments - A wave of price increases is occurring, with major manufacturers notifying clients of upcoming price hikes, including a unified processing fee increase starting in 2026 [3][4] - As of December 1, the average spot price for power-type LFP reached 39,950 yuan per ton, while energy storage-type LFP was at 36,950 yuan per ton [3][4] Demand Dynamics - The energy storage market has exceeded expectations in the second half of the year, driving demand alongside a steady increase in electric vehicle sales [4][6] - China's lithium-ion battery exports reached $55.38 billion from January to September 2025, marking a 26.75% year-on-year increase, with domestic new energy vehicle penetration surpassing 45% [4][6] Industry Standards and Regulations - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association plans to establish a comprehensive standard system by 2026 to set technical barriers and guide industry development [1][7][8] - The association aims to create a technical roadmap and conduct surveys to assess actual production capacity and technological status [1][8] Capacity Expansion and Market Order - Companies are adopting a cautious approach to capacity expansion, emphasizing the need to maintain market order and avoid destructive low-price contracts [9] - The industry is calling for a unified technical standard to regulate market competition and guide investment towards advanced products rather than exacerbating overcapacity in existing technologies [8][9]

12月12日晚间，"三元龙头"容百科技(688005)发布公告称，公司拟使用自有资金约3.42亿元收购贵州新仁约54.97%股份，并使用 自有资金1.4亿元对贵州新仁进行增资。 本次股转后，贵州新仁股权结构变更为容百科技持股54.9688%；本次增资完毕后，贵州新仁的股权结构变更为容百科技持股 93.2034%。贵州新仁将成为公司控股子公司，纳入公司合并报表范围内。 据证券时报报道，在2025年胡润百富榜上，曾小山家族以280亿元的财富值排在第231位。曾小山出生于1945年，今年已经80 岁。 公告显示，贵州新仁是一家专注于磷酸铁锂材料、磷酸铁及相关材料的研发、生产和销售的高科技企业。由上市公司天山铝业 （002532）创始人曾小山先生发起创办，于2021年8月在贵州省六盘水市六枝特区注册成立，注册资本为11.16亿元。 然而，其经营状况堪忧，2024年及2025年1月~8月，公司净利润分别亏损4681.44元、4808.98万元。 从交易本身看，容百科技此次出手堪称"精打细算"。根据审计报告，截至2025年8月31日，贵州新仁的审定净资产约为5.73亿 元，经双方协商确定的股权整体投前估值仅为3.99亿元 ...

12月6-7日举行的"2025（第二十三届）影响力企业家年会"闭幕演讲中，全球绿色能源理事会主席、协鑫集团创始人朱共山进行了《周期幻象与供给侧改革 下的企业家精神》主题演讲。 图片引自《中国企业家》 被忽略的代价：过剩产能如何悄悄扼杀创新 当产能过剩成为常态，一场静默的资源争夺战便在企业内部打响。 智造的本质：从"消化存量"转向"创造弹性" 智能制造之所以成为破局关键，正是因为它重构了生产逻辑——从"预测生产"转向"响应变化"。在传统模式中，企业根据市场预测大规模生产，一旦预测失 误，立即形成库存积压。而智能制造通过数据连通和柔性产线，实现小批量、快响应的按需生产，大幅降低过剩风险。 财务报表上，"存货周转率"成为高管每日必看的关键指标；销售团队的核心任务从开拓市场变为清理库存；生产部门不断调整排期，只为减少成品堆积。在 这样全员"消化存量"的状态下，研发新项目的预算被压缩，创新提案的讨论被延后，技术人才的精力被调配去解决眼前的生存问题。 这不是战略选择，而是资源诅咒——企业有限的注意力、资金和人力资源，被存量问题持续透支。久而久之，创新不再是一种能力，而成为一种奢侈。企业 陷入"产能过剩→全力消化→无力创新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the clear signals of economic transformation starting in 2025, highlighting the end of the era of blind competition and price wars among Chinese enterprises, leading to a new round of supply-side reforms due to overcapacity issues [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. tariff war has pressured China's export capabilities, leading to overcapacity as domestic consumption cannot absorb the surplus [2]. - The internal issues include low consumer spending and aggressive price wars among companies, resulting in reduced profits and layoffs, creating a vicious cycle of economic decline [3][4]. Group 2: Supply-Side Reform - The government is initiating production cuts across various industries to address overcapacity, marking a significant shift in economic strategy [1][4]. - Historical context is provided, comparing the current situation to the overcapacity issues faced by major industrial nations like the UK, Germany, Japan, and the U.S. in the past [4][21]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - China possesses two key advantages: low-cost industrial products and cheap electricity, with an average electricity cost of 0.5 yuan per kWh compared to 1.2 yuan in the U.S. and 2.5 yuan in Europe [5][10]. - The article argues that despite the relocation of factories to countries like Vietnam, they remain dependent on China's electricity supply, which is crucial for their industrial operations [7][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that overcoming current economic difficulties will lead to significant growth opportunities, similar to the historical experiences of the UK and the U.S. after resolving their overcapacity issues [22][23]. - It stresses the importance of maintaining cash flow flexibility and avoiding reliance on central bank interventions to solve economic problems [25][26]. Group 5: Global Economic Dynamics - The article discusses the contrasting economic situations of China and Western countries, with China facing deflation while the U.S. grapples with inflation [31][32]. - It highlights the potential risks associated with global currency instability and the importance of investing in cash-generating assets amid these uncertainties [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strategic shift of Chinese lithium battery companies, such as CATL and EVE Energy, towards establishing manufacturing facilities overseas in response to domestic market saturation and increasing competition, aiming to become global manufacturers rather than just suppliers from China [2][11]. Group 1: Investment and Expansion - CATL is investing over 30 billion RMB in a joint battery factory with Stellantis in Zaragoza, Spain, with a planned capacity of 50 GWh, targeting production by the end of 2026 [3][6]. - EVE Energy's factory in Debrecen, Hungary, is in the critical phase of mechanical and electrical installation, with a planned capacity of 28 GWh [4][5]. - Guoxuan High-Tech is constructing a battery super factory in Slovakia with an initial capacity of 20 GWh, strategically located near major automotive clients [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Domestic battery capacity utilization has dropped to alarming levels, while overseas markets, particularly in Europe and North America, show strong demand for electric vehicles and energy storage [2][8]. - The gross profit margins for overseas operations of companies like CATL and EVE Energy are reportedly 5 to 10 percentage points higher than domestic margins, indicating a lucrative opportunity in international markets [2][8]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the EU's new battery regulations impose strict localization requirements, pushing Chinese companies to establish local production to remain competitive [9][10]. - The EU's regulations require comprehensive tracking of carbon footprints and recycling ratios for battery components, necessitating significant adjustments in supply chain management for Chinese firms [10][13]. Group 4: Challenges and Adaptation - Chinese companies face significant challenges in adapting to local regulations, labor laws, and supply chain logistics when establishing overseas factories [12][13]. - Despite these challenges, companies are committed to overcoming obstacles to become global players, indicating a long-term strategic vision [14][15].

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司授权，不得随意转 载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担 任何责任。 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/12/0 3 740 6750 6965 8725 7030 785 775 172 6808 -60 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月9日电（吴郑思、张瑶） 国内商品期货市场周二（12月9日）普遍走弱，多数活跃品种收盘不同程度下跌。截至收盘时，综合衡量市场价 格表现的中证商品期货价格指数收报1492.50点，较前一交易日下跌18.41点，跌幅1.22%。中证商品期货指数收报2063.54点，较前一交易日下跌25.45点，跌 幅1.22%。 分品种来看，金属板块几乎全线走弱，其中工业硅弱势领跌，氧化铝盘中刷新上市以来新低，即使贵金属也双双减仓收跌近1%。但受消息面利多提振，多 晶硅逆势走强，主力合约终盘以超3%的涨幅领涨商品市场。此外，国际油价隔夜大跌超2%也拖累能化板块9日几乎全线下挫。相比之下，生猪延续反弹， 终盘再涨超1%，盘中触及逾三周高点。 图为中证商品期货价格指数日内走势图（来源：新华财经专业终端） 多晶硅领涨商品市场 生猪延续反弹行情 受利多消息提振，多晶硅9日逆势上涨，主力合约终盘以3.45%的涨幅领涨商品市场。日内市场有关多晶硅收储平台的消息再起。多家媒体报道，北京光和 谦成科技有限责任公司已于12月9日成立，该公司被市场猜测为"多晶硅产能整合收购平台"。虽然业内人士并未直接对这一猜测做出回 ...

2018年，白宫那份301调查报告，恨不得把"中国制造2025"刻在关税清单的抬头。特朗普举着大棒，发 誓要把这十个领域打回石器时代。 越打越强的"反向指标" 回想当年，特朗普政府赶在清明节前发布建议清单，1333项商品，刀刀砍向信息技术、航空航天、机器 人。 那会儿白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗说得直白："就是针对'中国制造2025'。"美国人算盘打得精，以为加了25% 的关税，就能锁死中国产业升级的咽喉，把中国永远钉在做衬衫、装玩具的低端流水线上。 结果呢？看看现在的成绩单，简直是给五角大楼的一记耳光。 2024年4月，《南华早报》不想给面子也得给，直接甩出一组数据："中国制造2025"涵盖的10个关键领 域、超200个目标中，中国已经实现了超过86%。当年被美国重点关照的领域，现在全成了中国的"王 牌"。 信息技术领域，美国拉着盟友围追堵截，芯片禁令一道接一道。结局是华为没死，5G基站插满了神州 大地。 六年过去，华盛顿突然"失忆"了。没人再提那份清单，也没人再喊那个年份。不是他们忘了，是他们不 敢看了。 因为那张曾经被嘲笑的蓝图，如今已经变成了让他们睡不着觉的战报。沉默，是最大的承认；改口，是 无奈的悲鸣。 国产 ...

Core Viewpoints - The nylon 6 industry is facing structural overcapacity, with supply growth outpacing demand, leading to price competition and shrinking profit margins [2][7][59] - The industry must shift from scale expansion to value enhancement, focusing on high-end applications and differentiated products to drive growth [7][17] - Technological and environmental barriers are becoming critical, requiring continuous innovation and compliance with green manufacturing standards [7][17] - Integrated supply chain management and international market expansion are essential strategies for companies to navigate current challenges [7][17] Overview - Nylon 6, also known as PA6 or nylon 6, is a widely used synthetic fiber and engineering plastic with excellent mechanical properties and versatility [6] - The industry has seen significant growth in China, which now accounts for over 50% of global production and consumption [2][3] Industry Chain Analysis - The nylon 6 industry chain includes key components such as caprolactam, nylon 6 chips, fibers, engineering plastics, films, and composite materials [10][11][12][15] - Caprolactam is a crucial raw material, with China holding a significant share of global production capacity [20][21] - Nylon 6 chips are primarily used for fiber production, with a smaller portion allocated to engineering plastics and films [11][12] Market Supply and Demand - China dominates global nylon 6 production, holding 57% of total capacity, while demand growth is expected to be driven mainly by the Chinese market in the next 5-10 years [18][22] - Domestic nylon 6 chip production has shown steady growth, with production increasing from 312,000 tons in 2018 to 502,500 tons in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 10% [25][28] Capacity Distribution - As of the end of 2023, China's caprolactam production capacity reached 6.53 million tons, with several major producers dominating the market [36][37] - The nylon 6 chip production capacity in China is concentrated among 25 companies, totaling 5.34 million tons [39] Future Predictions - The nylon 6 industry is projected to experience a mismatch between production capacity and demand, with overcapacity expected to persist in the short term [46][47] - By 2030, caprolactam capacity is expected to reach 10 million tons, while nylon 6 chip capacity will also increase, leading to intensified competition [47][48] Technical Features - The nylon 6 production process has evolved significantly, with various polymerization techniques being employed to enhance product quality [51][52] - The industry relies on advanced spinning and twisting technologies to produce high-quality nylon fibers [53][54] Industry Barriers and Challenges - The nylon 6 industry faces significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements and the need for advanced production technology [57][58] - Overcapacity remains a critical issue, with the industry experiencing a saturation of the downstream market, leading to intensified competition [59]