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黑色建材日报-20250711
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 01:02
黑色建材日报 2025-07-11 从业资格号:F03098415 交易咨询号:Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 郎志杰 从业资格号:F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号:F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号:F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3123 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 60 元/吨(1.958%)。当日注册仓单 54625 吨, 环比增加 9720 吨。主力合约持仓量为 223.0035 万手,环比增加 55094 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3190 元/吨, 环比增加 30 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3262 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 72 元/吨(2.257%)。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.7104 万手,环比 ...
沪指持续上攻!中证2000ETF华夏(562660)近4日连续获得资金加仓!
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-10 06:50
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the CSI 2000 Index and its ETF, indicating a positive trend in small-cap stocks with significant gains in specific constituent stocks [1][2] - As of July 10, 2025, the CSI 2000 Index rose by 0.10%, with notable stocks such as Puyuan Software and New City hitting the daily limit, and others like Houpus and Silicon Treasure showing substantial increases of 19.07% and 17.46% respectively [1] - The CSI 2000 ETF (Hua Xia) has seen a recent increase of 1.72% over the past week, with a current price of 1.43 yuan and a daily average net inflow of 493.48 thousand yuan over the last four days [1][2] Group 2 - Western Securities notes that China's economy is facing internal and external imbalances, with recent discussions on addressing the "involution" phenomenon, suggesting that supply-side reforms are likely to advance [2] - The CSI 2000 Index focuses on small-cap stocks with high liquidity, emphasizing sectors such as machinery, electronics, and biomedicine, which are expected to have significant growth potential [2] - The top ten constituent stocks of the CSI 2000 Index account for less than 2% of the total weight, indicating a strong risk diversification advantage [2]
五矿期货文字早评-20250710
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 02:13
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including macro finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It provides market trends, price movements, supply - demand situations, and trading strategies for each sector [2][11][24] - Different sectors face different opportunities and risks. For example, in the macro - finance sector, the stock index futures suggest trading based on economic and policy expectations; in the non - ferrous metals sector, the prices are affected by policies, production, and demand; in the energy chemicals sector, geopolitical risks and supply - demand balances impact prices [2][11][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Category Stock Index - **Base Ratio**: IF, IC, IM, and IH show different base ratios for different contracts [2] - **Trading Logic**: Overseas, focus on US tariff impacts; domestically, focus on the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. With low treasury bond rates and high stock - bond yield ratios, funds may flow into high - yield assets. Suggest going long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF long contracts at low prices, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [3] Treasury Bond - **Market Condition**: On Wednesday, TL, T, and TF contracts rose, while the TS contract remained unchanged. China's June CPI and PPI data were released, and the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4] - **Strategy**: Economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The PMI in June recovered, but exports may face pressure. The money market is expected to remain loose, and interest rates are expected to decline. It is recommended to enter the market at low prices [6] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold rose, while Shanghai silver and COMEX silver fell. The US 10 - year treasury bond yield and the US dollar index were reported [7] - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's minutes show a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts, with internal differences. It is expected that the Fed's stance will turn dovish. Focus on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Movement**: Affected by the US copper tariff policy, prices fluctuated. LME and Shanghai copper showed different trends. The inventory, premium, and import - export situation were reported [11] - **Price Forecast**: The policy is uncertain, and the price may fluctuate. In July, China's refined copper production is expected to be high, and the inventory is expected to be stable. Shanghai copper may be stronger than LME copper [11] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The domestic commodity market was strong, and aluminum prices rose. The inventory, processing fee, and spot premium situation were reported [12] - **Outlook**: The domestic market is strong, but overseas trade is uncertain. The inventory is low, but the supply may increase in July, which may limit the upward space of aluminum prices [12] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead, Nickel, Tin, etc.) - **Zinc**: Supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. The price is under pressure [13] - **Lead**: The primary supply is high, and the secondary supply is tight. The price is strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead may be limited [14] - **Nickel**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel iron is falling. It is recommended to go short at high prices [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is short, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [16] Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Condition**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices were reported [24] - **Analysis**: The export is affected by the Vietnamese anti - dumping policy. The domestic demand is insufficient, and the market needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [24] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The price of the iron ore main contract rose. The supply, demand, and inventory situation were reported [25] - **Outlook**: The supply decreased seasonally, and the demand was affected by steel production. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [25][26] Other Products (Glass, Soda Ash, etc.) - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices rebounded, and soda ash prices are expected to be weak. The supply, demand, and inventory situation were reported [27] Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Movement**: NR and RU rebounded. The reasons for the rise and fall were different, and the tire industry situation was reported [37][38][39] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term neutral view. Pay attention to the band operation opportunity [40] Other Chemicals (Crude Oil, Methanol, etc.) - **Crude Oil**: The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil rose. The inventory data was reported. The market is in a long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see [41] - **Methanol**: The price of the 09 contract and the spot price fell. The supply and demand are expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42] Agricultural Products Category Livestock and Poultry Products (Pigs, Eggs) - **Pigs**: The prices in different regions showed different trends. The supply may increase, and the price may decline in the north. The short - term long - position may have space, but the medium - term needs to consider supply and hedging pressure [53] - **Eggs**: The prices were mostly stable. The supply is large, and the demand is cautious. The short - term is recommended to wait and see or short - term operation, and the medium - term is recommended to short after the festival [54] Oilseeds and Oils (Soybean Meal, Vegetable Oil) - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are in a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal supply is high, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to supply pressure [55][56] - **Vegetable Oil**: The export of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the domestic inventory increased. The EPA policy supports the price, but there are still negative factors. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating attitude [57][58][59]
黑色建材日报-20250710
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 02:12
黑色建材日报 2025-07-10 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号:F03098415 交易咨询号:Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号:F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号:F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号:F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3063 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 0 元/吨(0%)。当日注册仓单 44905 吨, 环 比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 217.4941 万手,环比增加 6394 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收 盘价为 3190 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 1 元/吨(-0.03%)。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力 合约持仓量为 158.2553 万手,环比减少 11138 ...
五矿期货文字早评-20250709
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:11
文字早评 2025/07/09 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 宏观消息面: 1、美财长称未来数周拟与中方会谈 推动中美贸易等议题磋商。 2、北方稀土:6 月份稀土产品出口接单有了一定的恢复 公司对未来稀土价格走势持乐观看法。 3、乘联分会:6 月全国乘用车市场零售 211 万辆 同比增长 18.6%。 4、关于硅料收储 通威股份回应:没有更确切消息。 期指基差比例: IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.40%/-0.85%/-1.00%/-1.92%; IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.33%/-1.19%/-2.00%/-4.15%; IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.44%/-1.53%/-2.68%/-5.62%; IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.52%/-0.71%/-0.71%/-0.70%。 交易逻辑:海外方面,近期主要关注点在美国对各国征收关税带来的影响。国内方面,重点关注 7 月份 "中央政治局会议"预期。当前国债利率处于低位,股债收益比较高,淤积在金融系统的资金有望流入 高收益资产,经济也有望在众多政策的助力下企稳。建议逢低做多与经济高度相关的 IH 或者 IF 股指期 货,亦可择机做多 ...
黑色建材日报-20250709
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 00:56
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has declined, and the prices of finished products are showing a weak and volatile trend. The policy suggestion of "anti-involution and capacity reduction" has boosted market sentiment and driven short - term steel price increases, but the implementation of relevant policies remains to be verified. The implementation of Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel may suppress exports, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the Politburo meeting in late July [3]. - Iron ore prices are in a wide - range volatile state in the short term, affected by factors such as seasonal changes in supply, iron water production decline, and macro expectations [6]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are fundamentally bearish, but in the short term, prices are more influenced by emotions and expectations. It is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines and hedging positions look for opportunities to operate when the market rallies [9][10]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - surplus and demand - deficient situation. The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation, and the trading focus in July will be on macro and policy expectations [15]. - For glass, policy expectations have a strong impact on prices, and short positions should avoid and wait. For纯碱, the supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [17]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3063 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The number of registered warrants was 44,905 tons, a net increase of 8,464 tons. The position of the main contract was 2.168547 million lots, a net decrease of 28,783 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3191 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The number of registered warrants was 64,587 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract was 1.593691 million lots, a net increase of 8,136 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The export pressure has increased due to Vietnam's anti - dumping policy. For rebar, both apparent supply and demand have increased, but the inventory clearance speed has slowed down. For hot - rolled coils, production has slightly increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has slightly accumulated [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 733.00 yuan/ton, up 0.27% (+2.00), with a position change of +7312 lots to 655,200 lots. The weighted position was 1.0841 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 724 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 34.36 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.48% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The latest iron ore shipments have decreased seasonally, and the daily average pig iron production has decreased. The terminal demand is neutral, and the port inventory has changed little. The price is in a wide - range volatile state in the short term [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On July 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.07% at 5650 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 120 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF509) closed down 0.26% at 5350 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamental situation is bearish, but in the short term, prices are affected by emotions and expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions and look for hedging opportunities when the market rallies [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 8, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 2.11% at 8215 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 8500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 285 yuan/ton over the futures. The 421 market price was 9050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 35 yuan/ton over the futures [13]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in a supply - surplus and demand - deficient situation. The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation, and the trading focus in July will be on macro and policy expectations [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: For glass, the spot price in Shahe was 1151 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China was 1030 yuan, unchanged. As of July 3, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes (-0.19%) from the previous period and an increase of 10.57% year - on - year. For soda ash, the spot price was 1168 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of July 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8481 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons (2.13%) from last Thursday [17]. - **Market Analysis**: For glass, policy expectations have a strong impact on prices, and short positions should avoid and wait. For soda ash, the supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [17]
债市周观察(6.30-7.6):“反内卷”和“供给侧改革2.0”成热门话题
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-08 10:57
证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*周报 2025 年 07 月 08 日 固定收益研究 债市周观察(6.30-7.6)——"反内卷"和"供给侧改革 2.0"成 热门话题 上周,资金面跨季后回归充裕,DR007 中枢进一步下移至 1.42%附近,但 宽松流动性未能有效传导至债市利率,没有货币政策触发因素下,收益率 难以继续下台阶,债市延续窄幅波动。6 月初以来市场就开始博弈可能会 重启买卖国债,且对 7 月打开降息窗口也有一定猜测,临近季末,央行通 过延迟公布买卖国债数据和二季度货币政策例会通稿删除"择机降准降 息"表述的方式,释放信号瓦解了市场一致预期。7 月 2 日,央行公布 6 月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况,当月重启买卖国债预期完全落空。 另外,6 月 30 日,国家统计局公布了当月 PMI 数据,制造业 PMI 为 49.7%,前值为 49.5%,仍处于收缩区间,对债市影响不大。 7 月 1 日召开中央财经委员会第六次会议,会议中释放出"反内卷"的信 号,强调"要聚焦重点难点,依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争,引导企业 提升产品品质,推动落后产能有序退出"。会议引发对"供给侧改革 2.0" 的政策导向预期 ...
黑色建材日报-20250708
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 02:20
黑色建材日报 2025-07-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号:F03098415 交易咨询号:Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号:F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号:F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号:F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3061 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨(-0.35%)。当日注册仓单 36441 吨, 环比增加 7273 吨。主力合约持仓量为 219.733 万手,环比减少 41257 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3191 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 10 元/吨(-0.31%)。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.5555 万手,环比增 ...
淡季效应显现 沪胶维持震荡偏弱走势
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-08 01:23
东南亚处在割胶旺季 根据季节性规律,当前,我国云南和海南产区处在割胶旺季,东南亚各产胶国产量也处于稳步回升的阶 段。据天然橡胶生产国协会(ANRPC)最新发布的报告,2025年5月天胶生产国协会成员国合计产胶量 达79.13万吨,环比大幅增加24.97万吨;1—5月天胶生产国协会成员国合计产胶量达369.98万吨,同比 小幅增加2.46万吨,增幅达0.67%。未来7—12月,在没有极端天气干扰的情况下,国内胶水产量环比增 长趋势无法动摇。换言之,未来胶市供应压力将继续增大。 轮胎行业开工率回落 随着夏季高温天气到来,终端车市需求转入淡季,轮胎产销季节性转弱,我国轮胎行业开工率阶段性回 落。截至2025年7月4日当周,国内半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为64.13%,周度大幅下降6.27个百分点, 同比大幅回落15.27个百分点;全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为61.53%,周度略微下滑0.17个百分点,同 比略微走低0.67个百分点。在出口和内销形势趋于严峻的背景下,国内轮胎产量增速放缓。受下游轮胎 需求减弱拖累,青岛保税区橡胶库存维持累积趋势。 随着中东地缘风险降温,国内橡胶板块商品属性再度占据主导地位。目前处在割胶旺 ...
“反内卷”继续:A股周期股冰火两重天,券商热议行情命脉
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 11:28
Group 1: Market Performance - The cyclical sectors are leading the market, but there is differentiation within the sectors [1][7] - Real estate, electricity, environmental protection, and diversified finance sectors have shown significant gains, while precious metals and electronic components have declined [1][7] - Popular concepts such as China Shipbuilding, hydropower, and thermal power are performing well, whereas non-ferrous metals and coal are underperforming [1][7] Group 2: Policy and Market Impact - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to address "disorderly competition" among enterprises, raising market attention towards potential supply-side reform signals [2][4] - The current "anti-involution" policy is expected to differ from previous supply-side reforms, with a broader industry coverage and a more gradual approach [6][8] - Analysts are observing the potential impact of the "anti-involution" policy on market dynamics, particularly in cyclical sectors that have previously lagged [8][7] Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from Huatai Securities suggest that the current "anti-involution" market trend is a short-term thematic opportunity, with limited space and duration [8] - The market is currently in a phase of expectation regarding the "anti-involution" policy, with potential future phases depending on policy implementation and capacity reduction [8][7] - The differences between the current "anti-involution" and past supply-side structural reforms indicate that the effectiveness of the current policies may take time to manifest [8][6]