Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the market is watching the Sino-US summit. The copper price was strong yesterday. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, the rapid increase in price suppresses demand. The market should focus on the marginal changes in demand and Sino-US tariffs, with the main contract supported around 87,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The alumina price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price has continued to be strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance, and the aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and oscillated at a high level. The cost support is strong, and the supply-demand relationship is in a tight balance. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro environment is warm. The zinc price oscillated strongly yesterday. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is stable. The LME has the risk of a short squeeze, and the export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price is supported in the short term but may continue to oscillate [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low-buying strategy on dips is recommended. The market should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated yesterday. The macro sentiment has improved, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, the inventory accumulation exerts some pressure. The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price oscillated and rose slightly yesterday. The macro environment is positive, but the nickel-iron and ferrochrome prices are under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was strong yesterday. The production has increased, and the demand is optimistic. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is decreasing. The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the market watching whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 334,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The average price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1,774 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -40 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.17%. The export volume was 2,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. The SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased by 15.13% month-on-month. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.26%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.00% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 manufacturers) was 1.8217 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 120,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.70% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. The SMM industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.28% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there is still room for further monetary policy easing, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting in Busan, South Korea may bring changes to tariffs. - The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the bottom center of prices. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. It is expected that the domestic refined copper output in October may decline month - on - month. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released after the price drops. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. However, the supply pressure is still significant, and the demand is weak. The full - caliber inventory has increased by 64,000 tons this week. The cost support of bauxite is gradually weakening, and the profit margin of the industry has shrunk. It is expected that the alumina price will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. - The aluminum price has continued to be strong, and the spot market discount has gradually widened, indicating that high prices are suppressing actual purchases. The macro - environment is generally favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20800 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the high - level oscillation of the aluminum price. The cost support is prominent, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up the procurement cost. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern. The inventory is in a slow de - stocking process. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. The demand is stable without exceeding expectations. The LME has a risk of a short squeeze, and the export window of zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price may be supported in the short term but will likely maintain an oscillation without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee is at a low level. The demand is still weak, and although AI computing power and the photovoltaic industry have driven some tin consumption, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Powell's hawkish statement on the December interest - rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it may continue to be strong [11]. Nickel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the ore price is firm. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The downstream ternary still has inventory - building demand, but the medium - term supply may increase. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The ore price is firm, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The chromium - iron market is weak and stable. The supply pressure of stainless steel is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures price has been relatively strong, with the main price center moving up. The production has been increasing, and the downstream demand is optimistic. The raw - material inventory is being depleted quickly, and the supply of concentrate is tight. It is expected that the short - term market will remain strong, and attention should be paid to whether the price can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 290 yuan/ton to 87,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.33%. - The SMM wet - process copper price decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 87,660 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 324.15 yuan/ton to 4299 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.15% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons or 4.31% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons or 26.50% compared with the previous month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. - The import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton to 2914 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons or 1.74% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 118,000 tons or 3.16% compared with the previous month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1774 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons or 7.48% compared with the previous month. - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons or 4.43% compared with the previous month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. - The import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton to 5088 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons or 4.17% compared with the previous month. - The refined zinc import volume was 227,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons or 11.61% compared with the previous month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60 dollars/ton to 40 dollars/ton, a decrease of 60% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a decrease of 1553 tons or 15.13% compared with the previous month. - The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 4880 tons or 31.71% compared with the previous month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 1.26% compared with the previous month. - The refined nickel import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 526 tons or 3.00% compared with the previous month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, an increase of 6900 tons or 0.38% compared with the previous month. - The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, an increase of 1500 tons or 0.36% compared with the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. - The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2020 tons or 2.37% compared with the previous month. - The lithium carbonate demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12,778 tons or 12.28% compared with the previous month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract price is expected to range between 87,000 - 89,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum Alloy - Cost support and supply - demand balance drive the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton. [5] Zinc - Zinc prices are supported by macro - level interest - rate cut expectations and LME squeeze risks. However, the supply is relatively loose, and the price may oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply logic. The main contract is expected to range from 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. [9] Tin - Strong supply fundamentals support the tin price to oscillate strongly. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [11] Nickel - Macro - level sentiment weakens slightly, but cost support exists. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [13] Stainless Steel - The policy is stable, demand during the peak season is weak, and supply pressure may increase. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. [14] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals have improved, with a supply - demand gap during the peak season. The short - term price is expected to be strong, with the main focus on whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton and 85,000 yuan/ton. [17] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.35% to 87,905 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 9.22% to 3,975 yuan/ton. [1] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. [1] Weekly Fundamental Data - The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 67.81 million tons. [1] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 1.03% to 13.46 million tons, and COMEX inventory decreased by 0.06% to 34.77 million short tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 21,160 yuan/ton. The alumina prices in Shandong, Guangxi, and Guizhou decreased. [3] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. [3] Weekly Fundamental Data - The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.37% to 53.70%, and the aluminum foil开工率 decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%. [3] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 0.77% to 46.6 million tons. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased. [5] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons. [5] Weekly Fundamental Data - The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 7.73% to 57.54%. [5] Daily Fundamental Data - The daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan decreased by 0.20% to 33,257 tons. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.27% to 22,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 5,294 yuan/ton. [9] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons. [9] Weekly Fundamental Data - The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 0.57% to 57.48%. [9] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 4.86% to 3.5 million tons. [9] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.28% to 284,300 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 8.14% to - 14,746.45 yuan/ton. [11] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons. [11] Inventory Data - SHEF inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons. [11] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.734% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 18.314% to - 898 yuan/ton. [13] Production and Inventory Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons. [13] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton. [14] Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.22% to 927 yuan/nickel point. [14] Monthly Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. [14] Weekly Fundamental Data - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.37% to 49.49 million tons. [14] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.55% to 78,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 2.10% to 825 dollars/ton. [17] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. [17] Inventory Data - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 84,539 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 60,998 tons. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism, and copper prices hit a new high this year. In the short - term, the negotiation rhythm will drive trading. The 9 - month CPI further consolidates the expectation of interest rate cuts in October, with 2 possible cuts this year and the Fed stopping balance - sheet reduction. - Tight copper ore supply supports the price bottom. If by - product prices like sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may cut production. Downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of copper prices, while short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the support around 86,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot market trading became more active. Supply pressure is significant due to high domestic operating capacity and an open import window. Demand is weak, and the full - caliber inventory increased by 64,000 tons last week. With the end of the rainy season in Guinea, cost support from the ore end is weakening. Short - term alumina prices will be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum prices were strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is mixed, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance. Supply of ingots is restricted by the high direct - supply ratio of molten aluminum, and demand shows resilience in the peak season. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 626,000 tons on October 28. Short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices oscillated strongly, with cost support becoming more prominent. Tight scrap aluminum supply pushed up procurement costs, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance. Supply is restricted by raw - material circulation and policy uncertainty, and demand shows stable resilience. Inventory is decreasing. Short - term ADC12 prices will maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The preliminary consensus between China and the US warms the macro - atmosphere, and zinc prices oscillated strongly. The supply - side logic of loose supply has spread from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and subsequent supply growth may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. Demand is stable, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, supporting zinc prices. The export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. Short - term zinc prices have support at the bottom, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main contract should refer to 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees remain low. In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased month - on - month. The change in Myanmar's tax method is expected to limit the improvement of tin ore supply this year. Demand is still weak, and although AI and the photovoltaic industry drive some consumption, it cannot make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Tin prices will oscillate strongly, and the follow - up depends on macro - changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [10]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated, and refined nickel prices rose slightly. Overseas, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising; domestically, the 14th Five - Year Plan brings policy expectations. Refined nickel production remains high. Ore prices are firm, but nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and industry profits are shrinking. Stainless steel demand is weak, while downstream ternary materials still have restocking needs. Inventory is accumulating. Short - term prices will oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were slightly adjusted down. Overseas, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising; domestically, policies are mainly for stability. Nickel ore prices are firm, but nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and chromium - iron markets are weak. Supply pressure will increase in October, and demand improvement is not obvious. Social inventory is decreasing slowly. Short - term prices will oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures were strong, with the main contract LC2601 rising 2.53% to 81,900 yuan/ton. After entering the peak season, there is a supply - demand gap, which is expected to widen in October. Production is increasing, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. Downstream demand is optimistic, and raw - material inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices will run strongly, with the upper limit first observing the capital performance around 82,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton, and then 85,000 yuan/ton if it breaks through [16]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 2.08% to 88,520 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 15.30% to 4,379 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased to - 25.97 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss improved to - 786 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a 4.31% month - on - month decrease; imports were 334,300 tons, a 26.50% month - on - month increase. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 678,100 tons. The electrolytic copper rod - making start - up rate decreased to 61.55%, while the recycled copper rod - making start - up rate increased to 18.29%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 1.13% to 184,500 tons; bonded - area inventory decreased by 5.02% to 92,800 tons; SHFE inventory decreased by 4.94% to 104,800 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.28% to 136,000 tons; COMEX inventory increased by 0.13% to 348,000 short tons; SHFE warrants increased by 0.92% to 35,400 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.24% to 21,160 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 0.71% to 2,795 yuan/ton [3]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread remained at - 20 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a 1.74% month - on - month decrease; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a 3.16% month - on - month decrease; imports were 246,800 tons, a 13.57% month - on - month increase; exports were 29,000 tons, a 13.07% month - on - month increase. The aluminum profile start - up rate increased by 0.37% to 53.70%; the aluminum cable start - up rate increased by 0.63% to 64.40%; the aluminum plate - strip start - up rate decreased by 1.47% to 67.00%; the aluminum foil start - up rate decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%; the primary aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 1.03% to 59.00%. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.16% to 626,000 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.81% to 469,000 tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 3.32% to 1,869 yuan/ton [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 75 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 661,000 tons, a 7.48% month - on - month increase; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 283,000 tons, a 4.43% month - on - month increase; scrap aluminum production was 797,600 tons, an 8.16% month - on - month increase; unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports were 82,200 tons, a 15.77% month - on - month increase; exports were 23,500 tons, a 19.24% month - on - month decrease. The recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 7.73% to 57.54%; the primary aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 4.60% to 56.57%. The recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 0.18% to 54,700 tons. The daily inventory in Foshan increased by 0.23% to 33,323 tons; in Ningbo, it decreased by 1.27% to 13,179 tons; in Wuxi, it decreased by 7.09% to 1,873 tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,210 yuan/ton; the premium remained at - 55 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved to - 5,139 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.34 [8]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread remained unchanged at - 35 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a 4.17% month - on - month decrease; imports were 22,700 tons, an 11.61% month - on - month decrease; exports were 2,500 tons, a 696.78% month - on - month increase. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased to 57.48%; the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased to 53.13%; the zinc oxide start - up rate decreased to 56.36%. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.09% to 163,500 tons; LME inventory decreased by 1.46% to 37,000 tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.57% to 283,500 yuan/ton; the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 16.67% to 250 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.00% to 143 dollars/ton [10]. Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss worsened by 4.00% to - 16,052.47 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.92 [10]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 16.33% to - 570 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 100.00% to - 200 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 80.00% to - 90 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 400.00% to 350 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease; SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a 31.71% month - on - month decrease; refined tin imports were 1,269 tons, a 2.08% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1,748 tons, a 6.59% month - on - month increase; Indonesian refined tin exports were 4,800 tons, a 50.00% month - on - month increase. The SMM refined tin average start - up rate decreased by 31.77% to 43.60%; the SMM solder enterprise start - up rate increased by 2.19% to 74.80%. The average price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan increased by 0.59% to 271,500 yuan/ton; the Yunnan 40% tin concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton [10]. Inventory Change - SHEF weekly inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons; social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons; SHEF daily warrants increased by 1.53% to 5,652 tons; LME daily inventory decreased by 0.91% to 2,725 tons [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.12% to 123,050 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel price increased by 0.08% to 124,300 yuan/ton; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 3.92% to 2,450 yuan/ton; 1 imported nickel price increased by 0.16% to 122,250 yuan/ton; the 1 imported nickel premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased to - 194 dollars/ton. The futures import profit and loss improved by 38.59% to - 759 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.98. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.21% to 929 yuan/nickel point [12]. Production Cost - The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte - produced electrowon nickel decreased by

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The mid - to long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, rapid price increases may suppress demand. The main focus is on the 84,000 - 85,000 support level [2]. - Aluminum: The macro environment is generally positive, and the fundamental situation is stable, jointly supporting the aluminum price. It is expected that the Shanghai aluminum will maintain a strong sideways movement in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [4]. - Aluminum Oxide: It is expected that the short - term alumina price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton, but the downward space is gradually narrowing [4]. - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support and supply - demand balance push the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict it. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong sideways movement, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [5]. - Zinc: The zinc price has short - term support at the bottom, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc. It may maintain a sideways movement, and upward breakthrough requires significant improvement in demand and continuous improvement in non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [10]. - Tin: Supported by strong fundamentals, the tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. The short - term price range is 275,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Future performance depends on macro changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [12]. - Nickel: The macro outlook is optimistic, which may boost the price, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, inventory accumulation exerts pressure, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless Steel: The macro outlook is average, the peak - season demand boost is insufficient, and the arrival of goods at steel mills may increase next week. The fundamentals are generally weak. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are clearly improving. The strong demand in the peak season is gradually being realized, and the industry is continuously destocking. The price has support at the bottom. The short - term disk is expected to move strongly, with the main reference range of 76,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 12.83% to 3,798 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%; imports were 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The import loss was - 2,941 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16% [4]. Aluminum Oxide - **Price and Spread**: The average price of alumina in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,815 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 3.32% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The import loss was - 5,427 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%; imports were 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [10]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 281,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.68%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.00% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.61%. The import loss was - 1,236 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%; imports were 17,010 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 13,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased by 1.23% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 75,400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 1060 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.37%; demand was 116,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.28% [19].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash is experiencing a strong performance, with the main contract rising by 1.24% to 1222.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Market sentiment and focus are expected to fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash prices. The commissioning of the second phase of Yuanxing has entered the trial operation stage, leading to sustained supply pressure in the long term [1] - Upstream soda ash manufacturers are beginning to accumulate inventory, indicating a need for ongoing monitoring of supply levels. The expectation for high long-term supply of soda ash remains unchanged, with normal maintenance continuing [1] - Downstream demand for soda ash is generally weak, primarily driven by just-in-time purchasing, with most transactions occurring at lower prices. There has been some improvement in spot transactions during the week [1] Inventory Levels - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers reached 1.7107 million tons, an increase of 10,200 tons from the previous week, representing a 0.60% rise. This includes 770,500 tons of light soda ash (up 10,700 tons) and 940,200 tons of heavy soda ash (down 500 tons) [1] Market Outlook - The core factor for the decline in soda ash prices is the oversupply in the market, which has led to a continuous rise in inventory levels. Demand has not shown significant improvement, and the high inventory, prominent supply-demand contradictions, and capacity expansion are expected to continue suppressing soda ash prices, maintaining a bearish outlook on soda ash [1]

Economic Growth - The GDP growth for the first three quarters is 5.2%, indicating low urgency for policy intervention[1] - The GDP growth rate for Q3 is 4.8%, a slowdown from 5.2% in Q2[1] - Q4 growth is projected at 4.5-4.6%, sufficient to meet the annual target of 5%[1] Price and Demand Indicators - The nominal GDP growth for Q3 is 3.73%, down 0.21 percentage points from Q2's 3.94%[2] - The GDP deflator index shows a year-on-year rebound of approximately 0.2 percentage points to -1.0%, remaining negative for ten consecutive quarters[2] - Weighted year-on-year growth for industrial and service sectors in September rebounded by 0.5 percentage points to 5.9%[2] Retail and Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in September is 3.0%, the lowest this year, with a slowdown attributed to last year's high base effects[3] - Per capita consumption expenditure in Q3 increased by 3.4%, down 1.8 percentage points from Q2[3] - The urban consumption rate is 63.4%, slightly lower than 2019, while the rural consumption rate is 84.6%, higher than 2019[4] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5%, marking the first negative growth since October 2020[5] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) saw a reduced decline of 1.2 percentage points to -4.6% in September[5] - Real estate sales in September showed a year-on-year decline of 10.5% in area and 11.8% in value, but the decline in sales value narrowed by 2.2 percentage points[5] Market Outlook - The necessity for policy tightening is reduced as the annual growth target of 5% is likely to be met[6] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, with production indicators growing at 5.7% while demand indicators show a decline of -0.6%[8] - The bond market may experience upward movement as risk appetite stabilizes, with potential monetary easing expected in 2026[8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Glass futures have been declining recently, with the main contract falling more than 6% in the past week and currently in a volatile pattern of long - short game. The neutral view is the mainstream among institutions. Short - term prices may fluctuate in the range of 1050 - 1140 yuan. Short - term traders can seize short - long opportunities in the range, while long - term long opportunities need to wait for a clear breakthrough in the supply - demand pattern [3][4][5] - For the stock market, it is expected that there will be a repair market next week, and the overall long - term trend is still upward [8] - In the gold market, Shanghai gold has reached a new high, breaking through the 1000 - integer mark. Fluctuations have increased, and it is advisable to buy on dips rather than chase the rise in the short term [13] - In the iron ore market, there may be a phased decline in molten iron after the festival. Technically, attention should be paid to the important support level below. There are short - term supply disruptions, but in the long run, supply is expected to be loose [16][17] - In the egg market, the inventory of laying hens is increasing, and egg supply is sufficient, suppressing price rebounds. However, considering the current price and cost, there is a loss per hen, and short - long opportunities can be grasped [24] - In the pulp market, the pulp price in Shandong has remained stable. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Port inventories are high, and pulp is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [27] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures - The decline is due to the contradiction between supply and demand. On the supply side, new production capacity is continuously put into operation, and inventory has accumulated to a high level. On the demand side, there are still expectations for the "Silver October" peak season and policy - related positive sentiments. Short - term prices may fluctuate in the 1050 - 1140 yuan range [3][4] - Technically, after continuous declines, attention should be paid to the important support level below. The future driving force lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies on the supply side [20][21] Stock Market - The A - share market closed down sharply on Friday. It is expected that there will be a repair market next week, and the long - term trend is upward [8][9] Gold Market - Shanghai gold has reached a new high, breaking through 1000. Fluctuations have increased, and short - term chasing of the rise is not advisable. Buying on dips is recommended [13] Iron Ore Market - After the festival, there is no actual improvement in the terminal, and molten iron may decline in the short term. Technically, attention should be paid to the support level below. There are short - term supply disruptions, but long - term supply is expected to be loose [16][17] Egg Market - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and egg supply is sufficient, suppressing price rebounds. However, considering the current price and cost, there is a loss per hen, and short - long opportunities can be grasped [24] Pulp Market - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Port inventories are high, and pulp is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [27]

Core Insights - The traditional peak season for the refining industry in September did not materialize as expected, leading to a significant decline in profits due to dual pressures from costs and revenues [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Profit Decline - In September, the average refining profit for domestic refineries was 167 yuan/ton, a substantial decrease of 174 yuan/ton, representing a drop of 50.99% month-on-month and 10.65% year-on-year [1][2] - The average revenue from refined products was 5,337 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.69% [1][2] - The comprehensive refining cost increased to 5,170 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton, marking a rise of 1.61% [1][2] Supply and Demand Imbalance - The weak revenue was attributed to an exacerbated supply-demand imbalance, with many refined products experiencing oversupply and weak demand [3] - Key factors included weak demand for solvent oil and asphalt, uncertainty in international oil prices affecting market confidence, and adverse weather conditions in southern regions [3] Regional Insights - In Shandong, independent refineries saw a significant drop in profits, with the processing profit for imported crude oil falling to 132.83 yuan/ton, down 182.75 yuan/ton, a decline of 57.91% [3] - Despite an increase in operating rates among Shandong refineries, the release of production capacity did not translate into higher profits [3] October Outlook - Analysts expect a slight increase in refining profits in October due to anticipated relief on the cost side and seasonal demand support [6] - The international oil price is expected to face downward pressure, which could lower procurement costs for domestic refineries [6] - Diesel demand is projected to remain strong due to logistics and agricultural needs, while gasoline consumption may face seasonal declines after the holidays [6][7] - There are concerns about potential raw material shortages for Shandong refineries due to rapid usage of import quotas and maintenance schedules [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In October, the number of newly scheduled maintenance PVC plants is small, and previously shut - down plants are gradually restarting, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. The 200,000 - ton plant of Qingdao Gulf is expected to be put into production in October, which may further increase the industry's supply pressure. - In the early part of October, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production. After the holiday, there will be a phased replenishment demand from downstream enterprises, but the growth space of demand is restricted by the weak domestic real - estate market. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines, and its role in alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction is limited. - The PVC inventory is expected to maintain a high - level accumulation trend, which is the main source of price pressure. Currently, the calcium carbide process is deeply in the red, and chlor - alkali enterprises use alkali profits to offset chlorine losses. As chlor - alkali profits shrink, the lower limit of PVC valuation may rise in the future, providing some support for the price. The PVC futures price is continuously suppressed by the supply - demand contradiction, but considering the current low valuation and cost support, the further downward space of the price may be limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4,839 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan; the trading volume is 591,738 lots, a decrease of 62,851 lots; the open interest is 1,073,359 lots, a decrease of 1,002 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 837,249 lots, a decrease of 7,171 lots; the short position is 950,096 lots, an increase of 8,660 lots; the net long position is - 112,847 lots, a decrease of 15,831 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - In the spot market, the prices of ethylene - based PVC in East and South China remain unchanged, while the prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in East and South China decline slightly. The CIF prices of PVC in China and Southeast Asia and the FOB price in Northwest Europe remain unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan [3]. 3.3上游情况 - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in North and Northwest China decline, while that in Central China remains unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East increase, while those in Southeast Asia remain unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.97%, an increase of 2.01 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.33%, an increase of 2.44 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 78.13%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 534,700 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The inventory in East China increases by 1,300 tons, while that in South China decreases by 1,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index is 93.05, a decrease of 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, an increase of 45.9501 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6.4310894 billion square meters, an increase of 43.7794 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, an increase of 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. 3.6期权市场 - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.37%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.7%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options of PVC is 14.74%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [3]. 3.7行业消息 - From September 20th to 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. From September 19th to 25th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreases by 1.43% to 47.76%, among which the operating rate of pipes increases by 1.3% to 40.43%, and the operating rate of profiles decreases by 0.52% to 38.91%. As of September 25th, the PVC social inventory is 971,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%. From September 19th to 25th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process increases to 5,312 yuan/ton, and the profit decreases by 127 yuan/ton to - 657 yuan/ton; the average cost of the ethylene process decreases to 5,602 yuan/ton, and the profit increases by 7 yuan/ton to - 645 yuan/ton [3].