Core Viewpoint - The AI revolution is expected to significantly boost macroeconomic demand through capital expenditure, with explosive growth in AI-related capital spending in the US and China projected for the coming years [1][2][3]. Group 1: AI Capital Expenditure in the US - In the second half of 2023, AI-related capital expenditure in the US has seen explosive growth, with an estimated increase of $861 million by 2025, accounting for approximately 0.3% of US GDP [2]. - The North American cloud service providers are projected to have a total capital expenditure of $3,385 million in 2025, reflecting a 34% increase from 2024 [2]. Group 2: AI Capital Expenditure in China - Following the emergence of DeepSeek, major Chinese companies have ramped up their AI capital expenditures, with Alibaba announcing an investment exceeding 3,800 billion RMB over the next three years, surpassing the total of the past decade [3]. - By 2025, the total capital expenditure increase for representative Chinese firms is expected to reach 1,498 billion RMB, approximately 0.11% of GDP, with optimistic and pessimistic scenarios predicting increases of 2,144 billion and 822 billion RMB, respectively [3]. Group 3: Comparison with Previous Investment Cycles - The current AI capital expenditure cycle is anticipated to resemble the scale of capital expenditures seen during the 2021-2022 new energy investment boom, serving as an additional driving force for traditional economic cycles and gradually enhancing productivity across various industries [4][5]. - Historically, capital expenditure in China has been a lagging variable, typically following improvements in real estate or exports, but the current AI investment cycle is driven by technological iteration, allowing for demand creation ahead of revenue and profit realization [5]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Impact of AI - The AI revolution is expected to increase economic growth by 1-2 percentage points through enhanced total factor productivity, although it may reduce the number of jobs created per unit of GDP growth [62]. - The impact of AI on employment is complex, with historical trends indicating that technological advancements often lead to both job displacement and creation, but recent studies suggest that the displacement effect may be more pronounced in the current AI context [62][69]. Group 5: Industry Beneficiaries - Industries such as information technology, education, finance, manufacturing, and healthcare are projected to benefit the most from AI integration, characterized by high AI penetration and elasticity [80][82]. - The highest AI penetration is observed in information services, professional technology, and educational services, while agriculture and utilities show the lowest penetration [82].

导读 在促进生产力的提升来实现长期的经济增长的长期解决方案的同时，也需要重视当前 的有效需求不足的核心矛盾，平衡短期矛盾和长期方案，等待全新结构调整能够带来的新 动能，这阶段的"阵痛"和"平衡"，都需要时间去化解和等待； ---付鹏 东北证券首席经济学家 都开始正视"有效需求不足"的问题 在最近的 "应对变化的世界"为主题的第六届外滩金融峰会上，国 内经济再次成为讨论的热点，其中感受最深的就是当前关于需求侧 的问题不再像以前那样被避讳。正如央行前行长易纲在峰会上表示："中国面临内需疲软的问题，尤其是在消费和投资方面"。 " 有效需求不足"的问题其实就是供需曲线的失衡，供应和需求就是天平两端，当然当前相比于供给端（过剩）来说，目前需求端的不 足的可能更加突出。正如 中国社会科学院学部委员、浦山基金会理事长 余永定余老所言"如果有效需求的问题能够得以解决，那么产能过 剩问题就不存在"，当前最需要面对的 问题是"有效需求不足" ； 高善文博士也点出了"中国经济总需求不足的局面，仍然相对比较突出。总需求进一步减弱的风险，可能是今年三季度到四季度的主导 性风险"，几乎大家都将关注点集中到了"有效需求不足"这个当前迫切需 ...