Report Industry Investment Rating - The shipping industry (European route) is rated as "volatile" [4] Core Viewpoints - The extension of the tariff exemption period may not reproduce the first - round market for the US route, and the transmission effect of the second - round exemption on the European route will be significantly weakened. The European route freight rate trend depends on its own supply - demand evolution [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First - round 90 - day tariff exemption period US route market review - From April to May 2025, due to the change of US tariff policy, the US route market experienced three typical stages: short - term pulse - type rebound period, high - level shock adjustment period, and supply - demand weakening downward period. The overall market trend was weaker than the initial optimistic expectations [8][9] 2. Tariff exemption period extension, US route may not reproduce the first - round market - The freight rate upward cycle driven by the first - round tariff exemption policy was short - lived, with a particularly short high - level platform period. Constrained by high inventory and the approaching off - season, the second - round 90 - day tariff exemption window will have a significantly weakened marginal stimulation effect on new demand. On August 12, the tariff exemption was extended for 90 days, but the US route is difficult to reproduce the first - round market [15][16][20] 3. Second - round exemption's transmission effect on the European route is weakened - Before the tariff exemption, the European route market faced supply - demand surplus and seasonal off - season pressure. During the first - round exemption, the European route freight rate was strongly supported. However, due to the US route's difficulty in reproducing the first - round market and the shipping companies' conservative deployment strategy, the second - round exemption's transmission effect on the European route will be significantly weakened [28] 4. European route freight rate trend depends on its own supply - demand evolution - In August, the European route freight rate declined from the top due to increased supply and weakened demand. In the traditional off - season from September to October, the downward trend is established. Short - term bearish thinking is maintained, and the strategy of shorting October is recommended. If there is an unexpected suspension of voyages, the trading logic may switch, and opportunities such as going long on December or 10 - 12 reverse spreads can be considered [3][32][33]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and operation suggestions for various commodities on August 13, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Core Views - The Sino-US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the central political bureau meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, affecting the financial and commodity markets [3] - The inflation in the US remained moderate, boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar declined, which had an impact on the prices of gold, silver and other commodities [3] Group 3: Variety Analysis and Operation Suggestions Equity Index - The Sino - US joint statement on extending tariff exemptions led to a continued upward trend in the equity index. There was a short - term expectation difference in the market. It was advisable to sell the MO2509 put option with an exercise price around 6400 at high prices and maintain a moderately bullish view [3] Treasury Bonds - The current stage of bond futures was suppressed by the strong performance of equities, and the overall sentiment was weak. Unilateral strategies suggested short - term waiting and focusing on financial data and new bond issuance pricing. Curve strategies could appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [3] Precious Metals - The macro news increased the volatility of gold prices, but there was still a possibility of a pulse - like rise. A bull spread portfolio could be constructed through gold call options at low prices after the price correction. The silver price was expected to maintain a range - bound shock and still had upward space. A bull spread strategy could be constructed using silver put options at relatively low prices to earn premium income [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract oscillated weakly. It was expected to oscillate weakly, and the idea of shorting at high prices should be maintained [3] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel mills' inventory accumulation was not significant, providing support for steel prices. It was advisable to try to go long on dips. The iron ore shipments decreased and the port inventory and clearance increased, following the steel price fluctuations. It was advisable to go long on dips and short iron ore while going long on coking coal [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot auction was strong. The large - mine long - term agreement price increased. It was advisable to go long on dips. The sixth round of price increases for mainstream coking plants was launched, and there was still an expectation of further increases. It was advisable to go long on dips [3] Non - ferrous Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts improved, and the copper price strengthened slightly. The main contract reference range was 78,000 - 80,000. The market priced in a higher probability of interest rate cuts in September due to the slowdown of US inflation. The zinc price main contract reference range was 22,000 - 23,000. For tin, it was necessary to pay attention to the import situation from Myanmar and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] Energy and Chemicals - The oil price was mainly oscillating in the short term. It was advisable to wait and see unilaterally and expand the spread between October - November/December. For PX, it was treated as an oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels. For PTA, it was oscillating in the short term in the range of 4600 - 4800. For short - fiber, it was oscillating in the range of 6300 - 6500 [3] Agricultural Products - The US soybean export expectation improved. It was advisable to hold long positions in RM509. The palm oil was expected to have a large - amplitude shock after a strong upward rush, and the main contract might hit 9500. The overseas sugar supply outlook was relatively loose, and it was advisable to reduce the previous high - level short positions [3] Special Commodities - The glass industry was in a negative feedback process, and it was advisable to hold short positions. The rubber raw material price strengthened due to more rainfall in Thailand, and it was necessary to pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak season and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] New Energy Commodities - The polysilicon was oscillating downward with the increase of warehouse receipts. The lithium carbonate was affected by more news disturbances, and it was advisable to be cautious and wait and see [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Philippine government is advocating for exemptions from the proposed 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports by the United States, emphasizing the importance of the semiconductor industry as a key export sector [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - The U.S. has announced a potential 100% tariff on semiconductor imports, which remains uncertain as many countries are seeking exemptions [1] - The Philippine government is particularly focused on obtaining tariff exemptions for semiconductor products to protect its vital export industry [1] Group 2: Industry Role - The Philippines plays a crucial role in the semiconductor supply chain, specifically in the assembly, testing, and packaging processes, which are less favored by U.S. companies for in-house production [1] - The Philippine government hopes that the U.S. will recognize the significance of its semiconductor assembly capabilities and consider this in tariff discussions [1]

Group 1 - The EU anticipates an announcement from President Trump regarding lower tariffs on EU automobiles and exemptions for industrial goods like aircraft parts [1] - A joint statement is expected to outline the political commitments made by President Trump and EU Commission President von der Leyen last month [1] - The agreement stipulates that the EU will face a 15% tariff on most of its export goods, including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [1] Group 2 - The White House confirmed that the general tariff will serve as a ceiling for the EU, while most other trade partners will have their benchmark rates added to the existing most-favored-nation rates [1] - The administrative order from the U.S. only covers reciprocal tariffs without specifying any exemptions or how industry measures will apply to trade partners [1] - Ongoing negotiations will address exemptions for wine, spirits, and other goods that may benefit from zero tariffs, while the EU is pushing for an agreement to allow a certain amount of steel and aluminum to be exported to the U.S. at rates lower than the current 50% [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity sectors. Market trends are influenced by a combination of factors such as policy announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical events. For instance, the extension of tariff exemptions in the Sino - US trade talks and inflation data in the US have had significant impacts on different futures markets [2][4][9]. - Different futures markets have their own specific outlooks. In the financial futures market, the stock index continues to rise, while the bond futures are under pressure. In the precious metals market, gold and silver prices stop falling and rebound due to inflation data and geopolitical factors. In the shipping market, the container shipping index shows a downward trend. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products also have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][6][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares showed an upward trend on August 12, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased. The extension of tariff exemptions in the Sino - US trade talks and the release of relevant policies have affected the market. It is recommended to sell MO2509 put options at high prices and maintain a moderately bullish view [2][3][5]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures mostly declined, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose. The release of consumption - boosting policies has increased risk appetite and suppressed the bond market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on financial data and new bond issuance pricing. A steeper yield curve strategy can be considered [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices stopped falling and rebounded. The US inflation data remained moderate, which increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The suspension of tariffs in the Sino - US trade talks also affected the market. It is recommended to build a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and use silver put options to build a bullish spread strategy [8][9][10]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The container shipping index continued to decline. The global container capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in Europe and the US showed certain characteristics. It is expected that the market will be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12][13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices strengthened slightly. The market expected an increased probability of interest - rate cuts in September due to inflation data, and the extension of tariff exemptions reduced short - term risks. The supply and demand were weak during the off - season, but the price had support. It is recommended to expect the main contract to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000 [15][17][18]. - **Alumina**: The market was concerned about supply due to news events. Although the current supply was expected to increase in the medium - term, the short - term price might fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [20][21]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices were in a high - level narrow - range shock. The supply was stable, but the demand was weak, and there were macro uncertainties. It is expected that the price will be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 20000 - 21000 [22][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Terminal consumption was weak in the off - season, and the social inventory was close to full capacity. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, but the demand was suppressed. The price was expected to fluctuate widely between 19200 - 20200 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The market priced in an increased probability of interest - rate cuts in September. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak, but the low inventory provided support. The price was expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 23000 [26][28][29]. - **Tin**: The price was affected by the expected interest - rate cuts. Supply and demand were both expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The disk maintained a relatively strong operation, but the medium - term supply was expected to be abundant. The price was expected to adjust within the range of 120000 - 126000 [32][33][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The disk oscillated strongly, but the demand was still a drag. The cost support was strengthened, but the fundamental demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate strongly between 13000 - 13500 [35][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price fluctuated greatly due to news. The current supply and demand were in a tight balance. The price was expected to fluctuate widely in a relatively strong range between 80000 - 90000, and attention could be paid to the positive spread opportunity between near and far months [39][41][42]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices were supported as the steel mill inventory did not increase significantly. The cost increased, and the profit improved. The supply was expected to increase in the third quarter, and the demand was stable. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices [43][44][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price followed the steel price. The global shipment decreased, the demand was stable, and the port inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage strategies [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures rose strongly. The supply was tight, the demand was stable, and the inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage strategies [48][49][50]. - **Coke**: The coke futures rose, and the sixth - round price increase was launched. The supply was difficult to increase, the demand was supported, and the inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage strategies [51][52][53]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of rapeseed meal increased due to the anti - dumping decision on Canadian rapeseed, and the price of soybean meal was affected by the USDA report. It is recommended to hold the 01 long positions [54][55][56]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs oscillated weakly. The supply and demand were both weak in the short - term, and the 01 contract was affected by policies. It is not recommended to short blindly [57][58]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn weakened, and the disk oscillated at a low level. The supply pressure was still significant in the medium - and long - term, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [59][60].

Core Viewpoint - Hongteng Precision (06088) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 60% in the month, with a current rise of 12.83% to HKD 4.31, driven by its recent interim performance report [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of USD 2.305 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.53% [1] - Profit attributable to shareholders was USD 31.511 million, showing a decrease of 3.11% year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from the smartphone business decreased by 12.1% [1] - Revenue from cloud network infrastructure increased by 35.7% [1] - Revenue from computer and consumer electronics grew by 14.3% [1] - Revenue from electric vehicle business surged by 102.3% [1] - Revenue from system terminal products declined by 12.4% [1] Market Impact - Trump's announcement regarding Apple's commitment to invest USD 600 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, leading to tariff exemptions for its products, is expected to positively impact companies related to smartphones, iPads, TWS, servers, and AI servers [1] - According to CMB International, companies with a high sales proportion in Apple, Samsung, and AI servers, such as Hongteng Precision, are likely to benefit from this exemption policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hongteng Precision (06088) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 14% post-earnings report, with a cumulative rise of over 60% within the month, indicating strong market interest and investor confidence [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of $2.305 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.53% [1] - Profit attributable to shareholders was $31.511 million, showing a decrease of 3.11% compared to the previous year [1] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from the smartphone business decreased by 12.1% [1] - Revenue from cloud network infrastructure increased by 35.7% [1] - Revenue from computer and consumer electronics grew by 14.3% [1] - Revenue from electric vehicle business surged by 102.3% [1] - Revenue from system terminal products declined by 12.4% [1] Market Impact and Future Outlook - Trump's announcement regarding Apple's commitment to invest $600 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, along with tariff exemptions for its products, is expected to positively impact companies related to smartphones, iPads, TWS, and AI servers [1] - According to CMB International, companies with a high sales proportion in Apple, Samsung, and AI servers, such as Hongteng Precision, are likely to benefit from this exemption policy [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.19% to close at 24,906.81 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.08% to 8,888.08 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.01% to 5,460.02 points. The total trading volume was 2,009.02 million HKD [1] Blue Chip Performance - BYD Electronics (00285) led the blue-chip stocks, increasing by 6.15% to 38.68 HKD, contributing 2.75 points to the Hang Seng Index. Minsheng Securities anticipates further growth in the company's consumer electronics business and significant benefits from its parent company BYD's push in the electric vehicle sector [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances include Xinyi Solar (00968) up 5.06%, Techtronic Industries (00669) up 4.35%, while Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and China Life (02628) saw declines of 2.9% and 2.23%, respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks exhibited mixed results, with Alibaba rising by 1.89% and Baidu by 0.81%. Cryptocurrency-related stocks surged as Bitcoin surpassed 120,000 USD and Ethereum reached new highs [3][4] - Lithium stocks performed strongly, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 20.91% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 18.19%. The supply reduction from Ningde Times due to a mining suspension is expected to impact lithium carbonate inventory levels positively [3] - The cryptocurrency sector saw significant gains, with companies like Huajian Medical (01931) rising by 27.55% and Blue Ocean Interactive (08267) by 14.75% [4] Regulatory Impact - The announcement by U.S. President Trump regarding a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports, with exemptions for companies committing to large investments in the U.S., is expected to positively impact companies like Apple, Samsung, and others in the supply chain [5][6] Gold Sector - Gold stocks faced declines, with Shandong Gold (01787) down 7.99% and Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) down 6.86%. The market reacted to potential U.S. tariffs on gold imports, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [6] Notable Stock Movements - Zhonghui Biotechnology (02627) debuted with a remarkable increase of 157.98% to 33.28 HKD, focusing on vaccine development [7] - Huajian Medical (01931) reached a new high, driven by a strategic partnership with HashKey Group to enhance digital asset services [8] - XPeng Motors (09868) saw a rise of 5.36% following the unveiling of its new P7 model, which has already garnered significant pre-orders [9] - Jinxin Fertility (01951) issued a profit warning, expecting a loss of up to 1.09 billion RMB in the first half of 2025 due to asset impairments [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and commodities, providing market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector [1][2][7][12][14] - Overall, the market shows a complex situation with different trends and influencing factors in each sector 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Index Futures - On Thursday, the A - share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index down. The four major index futures contracts all declined, and their basis showed seasonal repair [2][3] - Domestic July export data was positive, and the Bank of England cut interest rates. The A - share trading volume slightly increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [3][4] - It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on the MO contract with an exercise price of 6300 - 6400, taking a moderately bullish stance [4] Treasury Futures - Treasury futures closed mostly higher, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. The central bank's net withdrawal of funds had little impact on market liquidity [5][6] - China's July export data was strong, and it is expected that the strong export performance may gradually converge. The short - term bond market lacks driving factors, and it is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see mode and focus on new bond issuance pricing and July economic data [6] Precious Metals - Multiple factors such as the US tariff on Swiss products, Trump's nomination for the Fed, and the Bank of England's interest - rate cut affected the market. The US dollar index declined, and gold and silver prices rose [7][8][10] - In the future, the attitude of Fed officials and US inflation data will increase market volatility. Gold is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, and it is recommended to buy on dips or sell put options. Silver is also expected to be strong - side oscillating, and long positions can be held [10][11] Shipping - Container Shipping Futures - As of August 7, the spot quotes of major shipping companies were provided. The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index both declined [12] - The futures market showed a downward trend, and it is expected that the 10 - contract will be weakly oscillating in the short term. It is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts on rallies [13] Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The spot price of copper increased slightly, and the demand was stable. Macro - events had no obvious positive drivers. The supply of copper concentrate was expected to be restricted, and the output of refined copper increased in July but was expected to decline slightly in August [14][15] - The demand for copper showed resilience, and the inventory situation was mixed. The copper price was expected to oscillate within a range, and the main contract was expected to be between 77000 - 79000 [17] Alumina - The spot price of alumina was relatively stable. The output increased in July, and the inventory of ports and warehouse receipts increased [17][18] - The short - term price was supported by factors such as supply concerns and low warehouse receipts, but the market was expected to be in a slight surplus in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the medium term, with the main contract expected to be between 3000 - 3400 [19] Aluminum - The spot price of aluminum increased, but the spot was weak with an expanding discount. The output of electrolytic aluminum increased in July, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased [20] - The demand was in the traditional off - season, and the inventory increased. The aluminum price was expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the main contract was expected to be between 20000 - 21000 [21] Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy increased slightly. The output of recycled aluminum alloy increased in June but was expected to decline in July. The demand was weak in July, and the inventory was close to full [22] - The price was expected to oscillate widely, and the main contract was expected to be between 19200 - 20200. Attention should be paid to the supply and import of scrap aluminum [23] Zinc - The spot price of zinc increased, and the supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, but the output growth rate was lower than expected. The output of refined zinc increased in July [24] - The demand was weak, the inventory situation was mixed, and the zinc price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract expected to be between 22000 - 23000 [26] Tin - The spot price of tin decreased slightly, and the market transaction was dull. The import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased in June [26][27] - The demand was weak, and the inventory situation was mixed. It is recommended to wait and see, and the tin price is expected to oscillate widely, depending on the import recovery from Myanmar [28] Nickel - The spot price of nickel increased slightly. The output of refined nickel was high in July and was expected to increase slightly. The demand was stable in some areas but weak in stainless steel and sulfuric acid nickel [28][29] - The inventory situation was mixed. The nickel price was expected to be oscillating within a range, and the main contract was expected to be between 118000 - 126000 [30] Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly. The output of stainless steel was expected to increase in August. The demand was weak, and the inventory was slowly decreasing [31][32] - The price was expected to oscillate, and the main contract was expected to be between 12600 - 13200. Attention should be paid to policies and supply - demand rhythm [33] Lithium Carbonate - The spot price of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The output increased in July and was expected to increase in August. The demand was stable, and the inventory increased [34][35][36] - The futures price increased significantly, mainly driven by market sentiment and news. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously, and the main contract may test 75000 [37] Commodities - Ferrous Metals Steel - The spot price of steel decreased slightly, and the basis weakened. The cost increased, and the profit of steel mills improved. The output of steel was expected to increase in the third quarter [38] - The demand showed a slight decline, and the inventory increased. The steel price was supported, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing up [39][40] Iron Ore - The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly, and the futures price also declined. The demand for iron ore was still high, but the iron water output decreased slightly [41][42] - The supply decreased in terms of global shipments, and the port inventory increased. It is recommended to short the 2601 contract on rallies and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal 01 and short iron ore 01 [43] Coking Coal - The futures price of coking coal rebounded, and the spot price increased. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased [44][45][46] - It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [47] Coke - The futures price of coke increased, and the fifth - round price increase was implemented. The supply of coke was difficult to increase, and the demand was supported. The inventory decreased [48][49][50] - It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [51] Commodities - Agricultural Products Meal - The spot price of soybean meal was stable or decreased slightly, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The export of US soybeans was expected to increase, and the export of Brazilian and Ukrainian soybeans was also significant [53][54] - The supply of domestic soybeans and soybean meal increased, but the arrival of soybeans after October was uncertain. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 2601 contract of soybean meal [54][55] Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs decreased. The profit of hog farming showed different trends in different scales. The inventory of sows increased slightly [56] - The supply and demand were both weak, and the short - term pig price was not optimistic. It is not recommended to blindly short the far - month 01 contract, and attention should be paid to hedging funds [57] Corn - The spot price of corn showed different trends in different regions. The inventory of corn in ports and processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of feed enterprises was relatively sufficient [59][60] - The short - term market rebounded slightly, but the sentiment was still weak. In the long term, the supply pressure was still significant, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [60] Sugar - The international sugar price was oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price was also at the bottom. The sugar production in Brazil increased in July but the cumulative production decreased year - on - year. The production in India and Thailand was expected to be high [61] - The domestic demand was weak, and the supply was expected to be marginally loose. It is expected that the domestic sugar price will be bearish [61]

美国的贸易伙伴正游说白宫，希望获得大范围新关税的豁免。这些新关税于周四生效，但各国都在设法 减轻特朗普重塑全球贸易的举措对本国经济的冲击。 这场外交行动表明，尽管白宫近一个月来高调宣布了一系列协议，但已持续数月的贸易谈判远未结束。 欧盟、日本和韩国等已与特朗普达成协议，但其谈判代表仍在幕后与美国官员沟通，为重要出口行业争 取更多减免。目前已有数十项豁免和例外条款获批，涉及巴西橙汁和智利铜矿等产品。 与此同时，谈判代表们正努力厘清美国的关税计划。在迄今达成的多项协议中，许多关键细节尚未敲 定，有时双方的解读甚至存在差异。 特朗普在社交媒体上谈及午夜生效的对等关税时表示，"数十亿美元的关税正流入美国"。 他周三称，进口半导体的关税将设定在100%左右，但对苹果等在美国投资制造业的公司豁免。此前承 诺对药品等其他敏感行业加征的新关税尚未正式宣布。 这种混乱局面以及特朗普为追求各种政治目标而随意调整关税的倾向，意味着美国庞大国内市场的准入 不确定性正成为新经济秩序的一大特征，对企业投资、招聘和价格产生连锁影响。周三，特朗普称，为 了惩罚印度购买俄罗斯石油，将对印度进口商品额外加征25%的关税，叠加已有的25%关税。 ...