Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **high-end industry in China**, particularly its development, challenges, and the impact of internal competition (involution) on industrial upgrading [1][5][15]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Structural Policies**: China has implemented structural easing policies to guide funds towards high-end industries, resulting in significant growth in industrial loans for high-tech sectors, while support for the real estate sector remains weak [3][2]. 2. **Economic Challenges**: The Chinese economy faces weak overall demand, leading to low capacity utilization rates, particularly in high-end industries, which are even lower than traditional industries [5][6]. 3. **Involution Impact**: Involution has led to price reductions as companies compete for orders, which can suppress further development of high-end industries if driven by insufficient demand rather than economies of scale [6][7]. 4. **Export Trends**: Over the past decade, the export share of high-end industries such as computers, pharmaceuticals, and electrical equipment has significantly increased, while traditional industries like rubber and textiles have seen a decline [8][10]. 5. **High vs. Low Growth Groups**: High-growth groups (emerging industries) have shown strong performance in fixed asset investment and industrial value added, but their export growth has lagged behind low-growth groups (traditional industries) in recent years due to involution [10][9]. 6. **Quality Indicators**: Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is used as a quality measure, indicating that a decline in the export delivery value as a proportion of revenue correlates with stronger TFP [11][4]. 7. **Future Directions**: High-end manufacturing is not the endpoint of industrial upgrading; the next level involves research and development, branding, and high-value-added services [12][13]. 8. **Need for Anti-Involution Policies**: To counteract the negative effects of involution, policies promoting demand and improving capacity utilization are essential for healthy economic development [15][16]. Additional Important Content - **Price Dynamics**: Price decreases should be analyzed to determine their causes; if due to demand insufficiency, they may hinder industrial upgrading [7]. - **Labor Market Effects**: Anti-involution policies should also address labor market issues, as stagnant wage growth can lead to reduced consumer spending on higher-quality goods, further impacting industrial upgrading [16]. - **Evaluation of Policies**: The effectiveness of anti-involution policies can be assessed through macroeconomic indicators such as profit changes, inflation levels, and the speed of industrial upgrading [17].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement to reinstate VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025, raises questions about its net impact on government revenue and expenditure, suggesting that the effects are not neutral as many investors believe [4][9]. Group 1: Economic Implications - The policy is expected to increase both government revenue from VAT and interest expenditure on new bonds, indicating a simultaneous rise in both aspects [4][9]. - Viewing the situation from a cyclical perspective, the policy could enhance internal circulation, benefiting both government and the real economy through increased tax revenue and interest income [9][18]. Group 2: Theoretical Framework - The concepts of monetary neutrality and Ricardian equivalence are introduced to analyze the effectiveness of fiscal policies, suggesting that in reality, these policies do have significant impacts despite theoretical assumptions [10][17]. - The discussion emphasizes that market participants often lack the rationality required to fully understand the long-term implications of such policies, leading to misinterpretations of their neutrality [18][19]. Group 3: Internal Circulation and Inflation - The relationship between nominal wages and inflation is explored, indicating that increases in nominal wages can enhance internal circulation by raising both wage expenses for businesses and income for households [20][23]. - The article argues that the long-term low CPI in the domestic market is a result of systemic issues across various economic factors, including tax policies [26][30]. Group 4: Policy Signals - The reinstatement of VAT on government bonds signals a potential increase in the likelihood of canceling other tax exemptions and subsidies, particularly on government bond income tax [28][40]. - The discussion highlights the need for a systemic approach to understanding the factors contributing to internal economic challenges, rather than focusing on isolated elements [30][49].

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Xu Zhuoyun, a prominent historian, passed away at the age of 95, leaving behind a legacy of historical research focused on ordinary people's lives and experiences [1] Group 2 - Early life: Xu was born in 1930 in Wuxi, Jiangsu, and faced physical challenges due to congenital muscular atrophy, which influenced his perspective as a historian [2][3] - Impact of war: His childhood was marked by the Second Sino-Japanese War, which shaped his understanding of suffering and the human condition, leading to a focus on the experiences of ordinary people in his historical studies [3][6] Group 3 - Academic journey: After moving to Taiwan in 1948, Xu studied history at National Taiwan University and later pursued further studies in the United States, where he was influenced by civil rights movements [5][6] - Shift in historical focus: Xu's work emphasized social and cultural history, challenging traditional narratives that centered on prominent figures, which garnered both criticism and recognition [6][9] Group 4 - Later years: In his later life, Xu aimed to guide younger generations in finding personal meaning amidst societal changes, sharing insights through various media [10][11] - Engagement with contemporary issues: He actively discussed modern societal challenges, including the impact of the pandemic and the role of technology, emphasizing the importance of humanistic values [11][12]

Investment Strategy & Market Dynamics - Natixis explores whether Chinese companies' investment decisions can address the "involution" problem [1] Report Focus - The report analyzes the investment decisions of Chinese companies in the context of economic challenges [1]

进入盛夏，外卖大战烽火又起。 7月12日周六，继月初的补贴大战后，美团和淘宝再次祭出18元起跳的大额红包，并附赠各种零零碎碎 的免单券、兑换券、抽奖券。补贴带来的后果非常明显，各平台外卖订单数量不断刷新纪录，从淘宝宣 布闪购订单数超过8000万，到美团即时零售日订单突破1.5亿，只用了一周的时间。 7月18日，市场监管总局约谈饿了么、美团、京东三家平台企业，要求相关平台企业严格遵守《电子商 务法》《反不正当竞争法》《食品安全法》等法律法规，进一步规范促销行为，理性参与竞争，共同构 建消费者、商家、外卖骑手和平台企业等多方共赢的良好生态，促进餐饮服务行业规范健康持续发展。 这是继2025年5月份五部门约谈外卖平台后，三巨头再次被约谈。 为什么外卖大战的烽火，一直从3月份持续到7月份，而且到目前为止未有停止下来的趋势？最为可能的 原因是，外卖这一业态的逻辑发生了变化，它不只是一个行业，而是成为撬动其它领域入口，而即时零 售则是各大平台今后着力的主战场。 今年2月，京东凭借"全年免佣金+骑手五险一金"的组合拳高调入场，而京东创始人刘强东更是给京东外 卖下达了利润率不超过5%的命令。尽管后来业界证明外卖行业5%的利润 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in enterprises, highlighting both proactive and reactive strategies companies are adopting to navigate this challenge [2] Group 1 - The "anti-involution" campaign has been initiated, focusing on breaking free from the price war dilemma [2] - The discussion emphasizes the need for companies to innovate and differentiate themselves rather than engage in destructive competition [2]

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" stems from an imbalance in the manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 billion), while service employment showed a notable shortfall (-0.4 billion) [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is approximately 1.5 trillion yuan below potential levels [18][106] Group 2 - There is a substantial gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences indicate a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][107] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further drive demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, which are seen as the new "three drivers" of economic growth [6][80] - Measures such as extending statutory holidays and encouraging private investment in the service sector are expected to enhance service demand and investment [91][109] - The recovery of inbound tourism is anticipated to significantly contribute to service exports, with potential growth in travel exports projected at 60.5% year-on-year for 2024 [97][109]

文/刘杰 反内卷的风逐步扩散，金融行业自然也概莫能外。以当前内卷态势最显著的如外卖、新能源车等行业为 例，共性特征是产品差异化小，区分度低。目前看来，银行理财行业在某种程度上也很符合这一特征。 转型至今，理财规模已经重新站上历史新高，但是行业整体盈利能力并未实现同步增长，降管理费的竞 争此起彼伏，"增量不增收"是行业内卷力度加大的重要表征。我们可以从产品、投资、渠道、宣传等方 面逐个细数： 产品端：仍有大量几乎"无波"中短期限理财产品 理财公司牌照刚开始发放时，市场就认为真正的全能资管牌照来了，因为资产配置可投范围和空间很有 优势。但时至今日，理财行业的资产配置结构过去几年并未发生实质性的变化，核心问题是负债端风险 偏好低且期限较短，很难真正跨周期投资。 但是在"创新"技术和策略以迎合客户所好方面，理财机构却动作频频。从2022年末赎回潮之后开始增配 存款，发行可以嵌套保险资管投资高收益的协议存款，再到借道信托计提"特别信托利益"实现平滑机 制，以及所谓的自建估值模型等，所有这些行为的目的都是创造所谓的波动较低的、收益又有优势的理 财产品来上规模，好在种种行为均逐步被监管注意到并叫停整改，最新又有多家机构成体 ...

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In June, industrial enterprise profits decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, a narrowing of 4.6 percentage points from May, but still in a contraction zone[3] - Cumulative year-on-year profit decline was 1.8%, widening by 0.7 percentage points compared to May[3] - The main reason for the narrowing monthly decline was a reduction in operating cost drag, with its negative contribution decreasing from 9.7 percentage points in May to 3.9 percentage points in June[3] Group 2: Revenue and Demand Dynamics - June operating revenue grew by 1.0% year-on-year, remaining flat from May and marking a near 7-month low[4] - This contrasts sharply with the industrial added value, which saw a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, the second-highest growth in 16 months[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, the deepest decline in nearly 23 months, indicating intensified price competition[4] Group 3: Profit Pressure and Cost Dynamics - Profit pressure is transmitted upstream, forcing the mining industry to pass on profits to downstream sectors[5] - Cumulative profit margins for mining, utilities, and manufacturing were 16.95%, 6.79%, and 4.46% respectively, showing marginal improvements due to falling coal prices[5] - The overall expense ratio for industrial enterprises rose to 8.38% in June, up 9 basis points from May, highlighting intensified competition[5] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To alleviate excessive competition, monetary policy should stabilize real estate expectations, and fiscal policy should expand effective domestic demand[6] - The central government is expected to issue special bonds to support durable consumer goods subsidies and infrastructure investments if export growth declines[6] Group 5: Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of monetary easing and fiscal expansion measures[7]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing intense price competition, leading to a significant decline in profitability across the sector, with the average price of square lithium iron phosphate power cells dropping to 0.32 yuan/Wh [1][6]. Industry Overview - The market is dominated by a few key players, with CATL and BYD holding over 65% market share as of June 2025, while other companies like Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL), Guoxuan High-Tech, and others make up the "second tier" with individual shares between 2% and 8% [3][4]. - The second-tier companies are facing widespread profitability challenges, with companies like XINWANDA reporting a net loss of 1.587 billion yuan in their battery business for 2024 [4][9]. Price Competition and Market Dynamics - The price war has led to a situation where 65 out of 104 listed lithium battery companies in A-shares reported a decline in net profits in 2024, with over 60 companies experiencing a drop in gross margins [6][8]. - The average global lithium battery pack price fell to a historical low of $115/kWh in 2025, with China's price at $94/kWh, the lowest globally [6]. Technological and Structural Challenges - The industry is facing structural challenges due to rapid changes in mainstream technology routes, with lithium iron phosphate battery installations increasing by 73% year-on-year, capturing over 81% of the market share, while ternary batteries saw a 10.8% decline [8][9]. - The profitability of leading companies like CATL serves as a benchmark for others, with CATL achieving a net profit of 50.745 billion yuan in 2024, despite the price war [9]. Cost Control Strategies - Companies are focusing on cost control as a primary strategy for survival, with significant emphasis on manufacturing efficiency, design cost reduction, and management optimization [13][14]. - For instance, Bee Nest Energy aims to achieve profitability by 2026, with 80% of the contribution expected from cost reductions [14]. Differentiation and Market Positioning - To break through the competitive landscape, companies are exploring differentiated technology routes, with Bee Nest Energy pursuing a dual strategy of both ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries [18][20]. - The demand for higher energy density products in specific markets, such as overseas high-end clients, is driving this strategic choice [19][20]. Capital Investment and Future Outlook - Continuous and substantial capital investment is necessary for both cost reduction and differentiation strategies, with companies like Yiyuan Lithium Energy and XINWANDA planning to tap into capital markets for funding [21]. - The competitive landscape is expected to evolve, with companies needing long-term patience and commitment to navigate the challenges of the trillion-dollar market [22].