晶科能源 20250827 摘要 公司上半年营收 318.3 亿元，但受产业链价格及海外政策变动影响，归 母净利润为负 29.09 亿元，不过二季度扣非净利润环比减亏 5.57 亿元， 毛利率环比改善 2.27 个百分点，显示盈利能力正在修复。 公司预计三季度组件出货量在 20 至 23GW 之间，得益于海外市场稳健 需求和行业反内卷政策，预计销售价格和毛利率将持续向好，高功率、 高价值产品将从海外市场发力。 公司 Topcon 电池和组件实验室效率再创新高，发布 670 瓦 Technew 3.0 产品，高功率 Topcon 产品具备更高双面率和更优弱光响应，实现 10%左右的单位溢价，技术优势显著。 公司储能业务高速增长，上半年储能系统发货 1.5GWh，预计三季度将 超过 2GWh，并落地多个重大储能项目，储能业务已进入快速增长阶段， 主要以海外市场为主。 光伏行业掀起新一轮反内卷，政策端呼吁不低于成本价销售，硅料收储 逐步推进，带动产业链价格反弹，高功率产品份额扩大，龙头企业份额 提升，海外市场价格弹性更高。 Q&A 请介绍晶科能源 2025 年上半年的经营情况及未来展望。 2025 年上半年，晶科能 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 点评报告 "反内卷"的利润成绩单 ——7 月中国工业企业利润数据点评 20250827 | | | [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 固收分析师：洪子彦 ⚫ 深度视角：7 月利润数据有何亮点？ 政策受益行业来看，第三批 690 亿元补贴资金已下达，受益于政策对相关行 业需求侧的拉动，电气机械器材、电子设备等中游装备制造业利润出现上涨。 其中，消费品以旧换新政策带动计算机整机制造、智能无人飞行器制造、家用 清洁卫生电器具制造等行业利润大幅增长，产业链条相关的计算机外围设备 制造、敏感元件及传感器制造等行业利润分别增长 57.0%、51.9%。 7 月专项 债发行使用继续加快，"两重"领域项目及雅江项目继续拉动基建相关需求， 叠加反内卷"政策推动行业规范发展，有色金属矿采、有色金属冶炼行业利润 继续改善。政策向人工智能等新兴领域的发展倾斜，引导资本开支从传统行业 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 证券研究报 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to improve as industry policies are anticipated to strengthen, leading to a continued recovery in the cement sector [3][9] - The company has demonstrated cost leadership during downturns and is expanding its operations, providing new growth momentum [9] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 41.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.368 billion yuan, an increase of 31.3% [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, accounting for 29% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [8] - The company's cement and clinker sales volume was 126 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable market position [8] - The average selling price per ton of cement increased by 4 yuan to 244 yuan, with gross profit per ton rising by 18 yuan to 70 yuan, benefiting from industry self-discipline and improved demand [8] - The company's gross margin for Q2 was 27.2%, reflecting a significant improvement compared to previous quarters [8] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 8.287 billion yuan, an increase of 1.416 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to improved profitability and reduced costs [3] - Capital expenditures were reduced by 19% year-on-year to approximately 62.1 billion yuan, indicating a continued contraction in capital spending [3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the cement industry is likely to continue its recovery due to strengthened self-discipline and favorable policies, with expectations for improved profitability [9] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and price stability in the second half of the year [9]

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——世界首例基因编辑猪肺成功移植人体 对话主要参与者：距离临床应用还有 多远？ （记者 王晓波） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，东吴证券8月27日发布研报称，给予海螺水泥（600585.SH）增持评级。评级理由主要包 括：1）公司披露2025年中报，拟实施中期分红；2）水泥量平价升，外延布局持续推进，龙头地位巩 固；3）费用端整体平稳，吨净利延续回升态势；4）经营性现金流同比增加，资本开支力度继续收缩； 5）反内卷政策导向下产业政策有望进一步发力，水泥行业景气有望延续改善趋势。风险提示：水泥需 求下降超预期；产业链上下游扩张不及预期；市场竞争加剧的风险。 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of 41.292 billion RMB, down 9.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.3% to 4.368 billion RMB [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.24 RMB per share, which accounts for 29% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's cement and clinker sales volume reached 126 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable leading position in the market [2] - The average price per ton of cement increased by 4 RMB to 244 RMB, while the gross profit per ton rose by 18 RMB to 70 RMB, benefiting from improved industry supply discipline and strong demand in Q1 [2] - The gross margin for Q2 was 27.2%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 7.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant improvement in profitability [2][3] Group 2: Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 8.287 billion RMB, an increase of 1.416 billion RMB year-on-year, driven by improved profitability and reduced costs of raw materials [3] - Capital expenditures decreased by 28.9% year-on-year to 4.063 billion RMB, reflecting a continued reduction in capital spending [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The cement industry has seen a significant rebound in profitability since Q4 2024, driven by enhanced industry self-discipline, although demand fluctuations and downward pressures still affect price stability [4] - The company is expected to benefit from upcoming industry policies aimed at optimizing supply-side dynamics, which may lead to improved profitability [4] - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to lower-than-expected demand in Q2, with projected profits of 9.46 billion RMB, 11.18 billion RMB, and 12.62 billion RMB respectively [4]

Profit and Revenue Trends - In July, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue increased by 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.5% in the previous month[7] - Cumulative profit showed a decline of 1.7% year-on-year, slightly improved from a decline of 1.8% previously[7] - The profit growth rate in July rebounded by 3.3 percentage points to -1.1%[3] Cost and Profitability Analysis - Cost and expense rates contributed significantly to profit recovery, with costs up by 9.8 percentage points to 5.9% and expenses up by 0.5 percentage points to -1.6%[3] - The cost rate's impact on profit year-on-year decreased by 16.8 percentage points to -10.9% in July 2024 compared to the previous month[3] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises improved, with July's profit rising by 2.8 percentage points to -1.5%[28] Sector Performance - The automotive sector experienced a significant profit decline of 113.7 percentage points to -17.1% in July, indicating high volatility in specific industries[14] - Revenue growth in the consumer manufacturing sector fell sharply, with a year-on-year decline of 2.6 percentage points to 6.2%[21] - The petrochemical and metallurgy sectors showed slight revenue improvements, with increases of 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points to 0.2% and 2.7%, respectively[21] Inventory and Receivables - The inventory growth rate for industrial enterprises slightly increased, with nominal inventory down by 0.7 percentage points to 2.4%[39] - Accounts receivable as a percentage of total assets rose to 14.6%, indicating prolonged collection cycles[23] - Actual inventory growth improved by 0.3 percentage points to 7.6%, particularly in upstream and midstream sectors[39]

事件 ：8月27日统计局公布7月工企效益数据，工企营收累计同比2.3%、前值2.5%；利润累计同比-1.7%、前 值-1.8%。7月末，产成品存货同比2.4%、前值3.1%。 核心观点：利润增速延续回升，但更多与低基数有关，目前成本压力仍在高位。 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强 、 耿佩璇 摘要 7月利润增速延续回升，但更多是低基数下成本、费用对利润的拉动提升。 7月，工业利润当月同比回升3.3pct 至-1.1%。从影响因素看，成本、费用率对利润同比的拉动有较大回升，分别+9.8pct至5.9%、+0.5pct至-1.6%； 但其更多与去年基数较低有关，2024年7月成本率对利润同比的拉动较前月回落16.8pct至-10.9%。具体行业看， 消费制造链成本率仍在历史高位（84.2%）；石化链（85.9%）、冶金链（86.8%）成本率也有上行。 其他损益及个别行业利润的短期波动，对本月利润有较大约束。 从利润率分项看，其他损益等短期指标对利润 同比的拉动有较大回落，较前月-6.6pct至-6.5%。从行业层面看也是个别行业的短期波动对本月利润的约束较 大，前期利润大幅冲高的汽车行业，本月利润利润增速有较大 ...

Core Insights - In July, industrial production maintained stable growth, leading to a reasonable recovery in price levels and continuous improvement in corporate profitability [1] - The revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.9% year-on-year in July, with a cumulative growth of 2.3% from January to July [1] - Although industrial profits are still declining, the rate of decline has narrowed for two consecutive months, with a 1.5% year-on-year decrease in July, which is 2.8 percentage points less than in June [1] Revenue and Profit Trends - The manufacturing sector saw a significant profit increase of 6.8% year-on-year in July, accelerating by 5.4 percentage points compared to June, contributing to the overall improvement in industrial profits [2] - The profits of raw material manufacturing turned from a 5.0% decline in June to a 36.9% increase in July, with notable recoveries in the steel and petroleum processing industries [2] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 18.9% in July, reversing a 0.9% decline in June, significantly boosting overall industrial profit growth [3] Small and Medium Enterprises - Profits of small and medium-sized industrial enterprises turned positive in July, with medium-sized and small enterprises experiencing profit growth of 1.8% and 0.5%, respectively [4] - Private enterprises reported a profit growth of 2.6%, exceeding the national average by 4.1 percentage points, indicating a faster recovery in the private sector [4] - The positive turnaround in profits for small and medium enterprises is attributed to effective policy measures, improved business environment, and enhanced financing support [4] Policy Implications - Experts emphasize the need for stable and continuous policy support to further expand domestic demand and promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5][28] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the prosperity of the titanium dioxide industry, which has been facing challenges due to rapid capacity expansion leading to oversupply and historically low price differentials [4][8] - As of June 23, 2025, 21.86% of titanium dioxide production capacity is considered outdated, primarily using the sulfate process, which is targeted for elimination under the new policy [4][8] - The elimination of outdated capacity is anticipated to gradually alleviate the oversupply situation in the titanium dioxide industry [4][8] Summary by Sections Industry Data - The titanium dioxide industry has experienced a downturn due to rapid capacity expansion and oversupply, resulting in price differentials at historical lows [4][8] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to assess and eliminate outdated production facilities, which could significantly impact the industry's supply dynamics [4][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry and recommends focusing on leading companies such as Longbai Group [5][28]

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