此前，多位知名主动权益基金经理对华新水泥已有布局。2025年基金半年报显示，截至6月末，基金经 理杨鑫鑫管理的工银创新动力、刘莉莉管理的富国研究精选、范妍管理的富国稳健增长、董辰管理的华 泰柏富利等均有百万股以上的持仓。 另外，玻璃龙头旗滨集团近期也获得了多位知名基金经理的增持。截至9月25日，基金经理郑澄然管理 的广发高端制造新进入旗滨集团的前十大股东序列，持股数量为3182.09万股。2025年基金半年报显 示，该基金6月末尚未有旗滨集团的持仓。 近期顺周期板块表现亮眼，吸引了投资者的广泛关注。值得注意的是，三季度，知名基金经理朱少醒管 理的"独门基"富国天惠LOF增持了水泥龙头华新水泥，玻璃龙头旗滨集团也获得了知名基金经理杨锐 文、郑澄然的增持。 业内机构认为，近期商品市场反弹主要由"反内卷"政策预期升温驱动，尤其在建材行业政策明确产能管 控后，市场信心有所修复。当前商品市场仍处于"强预期、弱现实"的反复博弈阶段，后续"反内卷"政策 仍有期待空间。 朱少醒增持水泥龙头 近期，部分上市公司因回购股份披露了前十大股东持股情况。值得注意的是，多位知名主动权益基金经 理管理的公募产品现身上市公司前十大股东名单， ...

近期顺周期板块表现亮眼，吸引了投资者的广泛关注。值得注意的是，三季度，知名基金经理朱少醒管理的"独门基"富国天惠LOF增持了水泥龙头华新水 泥，玻璃龙头旗滨集团也获得了知名基金经理杨锐文、郑澄然的增持。 近期，部分上市公司因回购股份披露了前十大股东持股情况。值得注意的是，多位知名主动权益基金经理管理的公募产品现身上市公司前十大股东名单， 并出现明显的调仓动作。 10月10日，A股建筑材料行业领涨，水泥龙头华新水泥涨停。根据公司当日披露的公告，截至9月30日，知名基金经理朱少醒管理的"独门基"富国天惠LOF 新进入华新水泥的前十大股东序列，持股数量为978.13万股。翻看2025年基金半年报可以发现，6月末该基金持有华新水泥的数量仅有50万股。7月以来， 华新水泥股价累计涨超70%。 业内机构认为，近期商品市场反弹主要由"反内卷"政策预期升温驱动，尤其在建材行业政策明确产能管控后，市场信心有所修复。当前商品市场仍处 于"强预期、弱现实"的反复博弈阶段，后续"反内卷"政策仍有期待空间。 朱少醒增持水泥龙头 | 序号 | 股东名称 | 持股数量(股) | 占总股本比例(%) | 期末参考市值(亿元) | 持有限售股 ...

A H 股市场周度观察（10 月第 1 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 10 月 11 日 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 3、《7 月政治局会议对市场影响几 何？》2025-08-03 分析师：徐驰 报告摘要 一、A 股： 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场表现分化，价值风格表现突出。从宽基指数来看，上证指 数微涨 0.37%，而创业板指则大幅下跌 3.86%，显示出市场内部的显著差异。风格方 面，价值板块普遍上涨，其中中盘价值涨幅居前；而成长板块则普遍回调。成交额方 面，本周两个交易日日均成交额为 2.6 万亿，环比略有回升。 相关报告 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 【深入剖析】本周为国庆节后第一周，仅两个交易日，市场波动明显放大。一方面， 国庆期间工业金属与贵金属价格 ...

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 [Table_A 解运亮 uthor 宏观首席 ] 分析师 执业编号：S1500521040002 联系电话：010-83326858 邮 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱：mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] PPI 转正的重要抓手 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 10 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 [➢Table_Summary] 2000 年以来，我国四轮 PPI 转正周期均由能直接重塑供需关系的核心因 素驱动。第一轮集中在 2001-2002 年，我国加入 WTO 后市场准入持续扩 大，出口快速增长带动工业 PPI 回暖；第二轮则出现在 2008-2009 年， "四万亿"投资计划及时对冲 ...

今日A股表现不佳，万得全A收跌1.64%，上证指数失守3900点，收跌0.94%，深证成指跌2.7%，创业板 指跌4.55%，跌幅创年内次高，科创50、创业板指出现较大跌幅，分别报跌5.61%、4.55%。（注：数据 来源Wind，2025/10/10） （1）AI相关产业：在自主可控的要求下，国家对国内AI产业链的支持政策不断落地，预计国内算力资 本开支将进一步扩大，AI端侧普及率提高，后续可以关注国产算力链、消费电子等领域。 （2）中国品牌竞争力提升：在"工程师红利"的支撑下，中国品牌制造经历了从"便宜货"到"又好又便宜 又赚钱"到很多领域的"跨越时刻"的转变，可以关注国产品牌出海，以及汽车、创新药、军贸等实现了 弯道超车或自主份额提升的细分赛道。 （3）资源品：铜、贵金属、小金属等资源品具备真正的稀缺性和抗通胀性，且容易形成稳定的供给联 盟，资源品相关资产具备稳定的现金流和良好的长期配置价值。 风险提示：本材料内容中的信息或所表达的意见具有时效性，仅供参考，并不构成投资建议。基金有风 险，投资需谨慎。投资人购买基金时应详细阅读本基金的基金合同、招募说明书和基金产品资料概要等 法律文件，全面了解产品风险， ...

供需失衡未有扭转 工业硅弱于多晶硅运行 请阅读正文后的声明 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 工业硅月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻 ...

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 多晶硅月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃/纯碱） 2025-07-09：《光伏电力行业专题报 告： ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 现货价格持稳，工业硅多晶硅震荡运行 工业硅： 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9500（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8700-9000（-100）元/吨，99硅价格在8700-9000（-100）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西 北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 SMM统计10月9日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.5万吨，较国庆节前增加0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库12万吨，较 节前环比持平，社会交割仓库42.5万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较节前增加0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10900-11200（0）元/吨。SMM报道，DMC报价也处于相对平稳状态。供 应方面，当前国内 DMC 单体生产企业的开工负荷保持在节前水平，整体行业开工率约为 71% ，供应规模相对稳 定。此外，多数单体生产企业手中仍持有一定量的预售订单支撑，且上游原材料成本端价格维持稳定，为 DMC 价 格提供了较强的成本支撑，双重因素叠加使得单体厂的挺价 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-10-10） | | | | 铁矿：节后铁矿有所反弹，更多是供应端消息层面支撑。部分自媒体报道 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 称因铁矿石定价争议升级，对禁止进口 BHP 等矿山矿石的消息产生新的 | | | | | 担忧，但中国钢厂并没有收到相关通知，另外西芒杜事故也影响了市场情 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 绪，后续关注供应端的实际影响情况。近期钢厂盈利面走低，但依旧处于 | | | | | 近年偏高水平，日均铁水产量也维持 241-242 万吨左右，短期很难看到 | | | | | 负反馈，节后核心仍在钢材需求，若十月钢材需求不及预期，从而钢材库 | | | | | 存持续累积，钢价下跌带动利润走低，导致钢厂减产进而形成负反馈。目 | | | | | 前铁矿石交易逻辑不确定性增加，短期供应端干扰下仍有支撑。 | | | | | 煤焦：10 月国内焦煤供给预计将维持平稳运行态势。受前期"反内卷" | | | 煤焦 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].