Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.6 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company experienced continued pressure in 2024, with total revenue of 6.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 227 million yuan, down 34.04% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue drop of 23.8% year-on-year, resulting in a net loss of 211 million yuan [2][4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, total revenue was 1.501 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.47% year-on-year, with a net profit of 120 million yuan, down 27.29% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is actively exploring changes to improve its situation, focusing on brand upgrades, digital transformation, and lean operations. It aims to stabilize store numbers and improve same-store sales [2][8]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 6,257 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: -13.8% - Net profit: 227 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: -34.0% - Gross margin: 30.5% [4][9] - **2025 Financial Projections**: - Total revenue expected: 5,877 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: -6.1% - Net profit expected: 501 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: 120.4% - EPS forecast: 0.83 yuan [4][9] - **Valuation Ratios**: - PE ratio for 2025: 20 times - PE ratio for 2026: 16 times - PE ratio for 2027: 14 times [4][9] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a current price of 16.12 yuan, reflecting a challenging market environment [4][8]. Operational Insights - The company faced challenges with store closures, estimating around 2,000 net closures in 2024, impacting revenue and same-store sales negatively [2][8]. - The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency and exploring digital applications in collaboration with Tencent to enhance its business model [2][8].

Core Insights - Nestlé is acquiring the remaining 40% stake in Xu Fu Ji, achieving full ownership after previously acquiring 60% in 2011 for $1.7 billion, indicating a strategic move in the evolving Chinese candy market [1][4] Company Overview - Xu Fu Ji, founded in 1992, has transformed from a leading candy brand to a diversified product line including pastries, chocolates, and jellies, with over 3,500 distributors and 130,000 retail outlets [2][3] - The company has 39 modern production facilities and 127 high-quality automated production lines, showcasing its operational scale [2] Market Position - Xu Fu Ji holds the top market share in bulk candy, chocolate, and pastries, with over 30% market share in bulk candy and chocolate, and second place in bulk jelly [3] - The company has experienced an average annual growth rate of 8% in production value over the past three years, with double-digit growth expected in 2024 [3][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, Nestlé's sales in Greater China reached approximately 50 billion Swiss francs, with a 2.1% organic growth rate, significantly driven by the candy business [4][5] - The candy segment accounted for 16.1% of total sales in Greater China and 9.2% globally, indicating substantial growth potential [5] Strategic Direction - Nestlé aims to enhance its candy business by focusing on high-growth categories and integrating its products and technologies with Xu Fu Ji, leveraging global R&D capabilities [6][7] - The acquisition aligns with Nestlé's strategy to invest in growth-driving factors and expand market share, particularly in the snack and candy sectors [6][7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2022, the company's revenue reached RMB12.9 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.1% [4][14] - The net profit was RMB922 million, up 1.5%, while the core EXTEP brand's net profit increased by 10.7% to RMB1.35 billion [5][16] - The final dividend per share was RMB7.1, with a payout ratio of 50% for the full year [5][19] - Operating profit rose by 4.9% to RMB1.464 billion, with the core EXTEP brand's operating profit increasing by 9.4% to RMB1.759 billion [15][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core EXTEP brand revenue grew by 25.9% to RMB11.128 billion, driven by strong performance in running products and kits [15][24] - The Athleisure segment revenue increased by 44.4% to RMB1.4 billion, with a significant contribution from the K Swiss and Palladium brands [15][44] - The number of stores for core EXTEP brand increased by 116 to a total of 6,313, with plans to open around 200 more stores in 2023 [18][40] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail sell-through growth was mid double digits for 2022, with Q1 exceeding 30% and Q4 experiencing a decline due to pandemic impacts [10][12] - By the end of 2022, inventory turnover days improved from 106 to 90 days, indicating better inventory management [22] - The company expects retail performance to improve in 2023 as pandemic control measures are relaxed, leading to more development opportunities in the sportswear industry [8][55] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on the running category and enhance its brand positioning through professional performance to attract the mass market [7][42] - Plans include upgrading retail channels, enhancing store images, and increasing investment in kids' business to capture young consumers [37][40] - The company is committed to corporate social responsibility and aims to align with China's dual carbon goals through sustainable product offerings [36][41] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the recovery of the consumption market in 2023, anticipating strong growth in the sportswear industry [8][55] - The company is confident in achieving double-digit growth for the core EXTEP brand and 20% to 30% growth for the Athleisure segment in 2023 [55] - Management highlighted the importance of brand upgrading and expanding the running ecosystem to strengthen market presence [29][42] Other Important Information - The gross margin for the Athleisure segment decreased from 44.6% to 37.6% due to logistics and supply chain issues, but is expected to recover above 40% in 2023 [19][20] - The company reported a total loss of RMB120 million from four new brands still in the investment stage, which impacted overall profit growth [16][17] - The company has a healthy balance sheet with net cash of RMB1.22 billion and sufficient capital to support future brand developments [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the growth targets for the new brands? - The company aims for Saucony and Merrell to achieve sales growth targets of 60% to 70% in 2023, with Saucony expected to break even [53][55] Question: How does the company plan to manage inventory levels? - The company has improved inventory turnover days and expects to return to a normal level of four months by the end of 2023 [13][22] Question: What is the outlook for the Chinese market? - Management is confident in the future of the Chinese economy, citing increased health consciousness and government support as positive factors [54][55]