Core Insights - Local government bond issuance is accelerating, with a total of approximately 45,322 billion yuan issued as of June 15, representing a 55% increase compared to 29,171 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1] - The increase in bond issuance indicates a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at optimizing debt structure and enhancing effective investment [1] Group 1: Local Government Bonds - The issuance of new special bonds reached 16,479 billion yuan, accounting for about 36% of total local bond issuance, which is a 39% increase from 11,871 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The issuance of replacement bonds has also progressed rapidly, with approximately 16,835 billion yuan issued, achieving about 84% of the 20,000 billion yuan quota for the year [2] - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has surpassed 1,000 billion yuan, contributing to stabilizing the real estate market [2][3] Group 2: Economic Impact - The funds from new special bonds and infrastructure investments are expected to attract significant social capital, driving effective investment and promoting related industry development [2] - The acceleration of replacement bond issuance is expected to alleviate local government debt risks and repayment pressures, leading to a more stable fiscal and economic environment [2] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling local government debts [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see a high volume of local bond issuance, with June alone projected to reach around 10,000 billion yuan, including 5,364 billion yuan in new bonds [3] - The overall pace of local bond issuance is anticipated to accelerate, with a focus on infrastructure projects to stabilize economic growth and support related industries [3] - Local bonds are becoming a crucial tool for ensuring moderate investment growth and stabilizing local economic growth rates, with continued high issuance expected in the second half of the year [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that local bonds may be approaching an allocation window. It analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local bonds, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, and trading volume and turnover rates [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Conditions - **Net Financing**: This week, local bond issuance was 107.8 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 43 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 261.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 124.3 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to this week [1][3]. - **Issuance Terms**: The issuance proportion of 10 - year local bonds was the highest this week (47%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds reached 76%, an increase from last week. The 10 - year bond issuance proportion increased by about 24 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 26.7 billion yuan were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.7362 trillion yuan. Special special bonds worth 1.5 billion yuan were issued this week, and as of the end of this week, the disclosed and issued scales in 2025 were 273 billion yuan and 245.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 12bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local bond had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 19.3bp. Except for the 5 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds, the spreads of other terms widened [1]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of newly - added special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (21%), social undertakings (12%), and affordable housing projects (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocations increased by 7.7% compared to 2024 [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: In the second quarter of 2025, 36 regions have disclosed local bond issuance plans, with an estimated total issuance of 2.48 trillion yuan. In June, the planned issuance is 1007.6 billion yuan [30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Conditions - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year local bonds were advantageous, and the secondary spread of 10 - year local bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year bonds were 21bp and 20bp respectively. The historical quantile of the 30 - year bond's secondary spread was 87% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rates**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds increased. Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Ningbo had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume reached 598.3 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 1.17%. Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Sichuan had large trading volumes [5].

2025 年 06 月 15 日 发行继续降速，10Y 和 30Y 减国债 利差小幅收窄 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250613 相关研究 《新增地方债发行降速，10Y 减国债 利差小幅收窄——地方债周度跟踪 20250606 》 2025/06/08 《发行与净融资环比均下降，10Y 减 国债利差大幅回升——地方债周度 跟踪 20250530 》 2025/06/02 《10Y 地方债减国债利差大幅收窄 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250523 》 2025/05/26 《发行和净融资环比上升，除 30Y 外其他期限减国债利差皆收窄—— 地方债周度跟踪 20250516 》 2025/05/18 《发行和净融资环比下降，7Y 及以 上减国债利差均收窄——地方债周 度跟踪 20250509》 2025/05/11 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearc ...

业内预计，今年土地储备专项债券的发行规模将显著增加。二、三季度随着各地"自审自发"细则落实与 入库项目确定，相应专项债、土储专项债发行节奏会进一步加快。 今年以来地方债一半以上是用于"借新还旧"，其中主要用于置换隐性债务。按照此前财政部安排，今年 地方将总计发行2万亿元置换隐性债务的再融资债券，前5个月地方已经发行了其中约八成额度，隐性债 务置换工作推进很快。 中证鹏元评级最新发布数据显示，5月份，置换隐债专项债发行规模披露额度579亿元，今年前5个月已 累计披露发行额度16568亿元，占计划总额82.8%，共有21个省区市（含计划单列市）的下达额度发行 完毕，12个省区市仍有余额。 "展望下一阶段，在置换债已大量发行并发挥效用的情况下，新增地方债将进一步加快发行使用。"中国 民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，从各地公布的发行计划来看，6月新增地方债发行规模达5364亿元， 环比、同比均有所增加；加上4725亿元计划偿还规模，预计6月地方债规模在1万亿元左右。 随着二季度以来各地专项债"收储"行动持续落地，地方债发行明显提速。上海证券报记者梳理专项债券 信息网发现，截至6月12日，今年地方债发行已逾4万亿元，其中 ...

人民币贷款余额同比增长7.1%，还原地方债务置换影响后仍保持在8%左右。 6月13日，央行发布最新金融数据显示，广义货币供应（M2）增速保持基本稳定，社会融资规模增速保 持较高水平。 具体而言，5月末，社会融资规模存量为426.16万亿元，同比增长8.7%，比上年同期高0.3个百分点；5 月份，社会融资规模增量为2.29万亿元，同比多增2247亿元；M2同比增长7.9%，狭义货币（M1）同比 增长2.3%，人民币贷款余额同比增长7.1%，还原地方债务置换影响后仍保持在8%左右。 5月7日，人民银行发布了一揽子金融支持措施，包括降准降息、优化并创设结构性货币政策工具等，力 度非常大，各项政策已逐步有效落地。 市场权威专家表示，人民银行还将综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性合理充裕。从历史规律看， 6月经济活动通常比较活跃，融资需求相应也会增多。预计下阶段金融总量增长有望保持平稳。 政府债券拉动社融规模较快增长 5月，社会融资规模增量为2.29万亿元，同比多增2247亿元，主要是受到政府债券和企业债券等直接融 资的拉动。1～5月，社会融资规模增量为18.63万亿元，同比多增3.83万亿元。 政府债券是拉动社会融 ...

山东发行15年期普通专项地方债，规模76.4200亿元，发行利率2.0000%，边际倍数1.10倍，倍数预期 1.96； 山东发行30年期普通专项地方债，规模70.5000亿元，发行利率2.0600%，边际倍数12.26倍，倍数预期 2.03。 山东发行10年期普通专项地方债，规模12.2600亿元，发行利率1.7000%，边际倍数1.22倍，倍数预期 1.73； ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月13日 政府债务周度观察 国债发行放量，新增专项债放缓 新增专项债第 23 周（6/2-6/8）73 亿，第 24 周（6/9-6/15）71 亿。截 至第 23 周（6/2-6/8）累计 1.6 万亿，进度 37.3%。特殊新增专项债已 发行 2604 亿，土地储备专项债已发行 1083 亿，已披露收购存量闲置土 地项目累计覆盖 4176 块宗地，资金规模约 4564 亿。 特殊再融资债第 23 周（6/2-6/8）277 亿，第 24 周（6/9-6/15）267 亿。 截至第 23 周（6/2-6/8）累计 1.7 万亿，发行进度 84%。 城投债第 23 周（6/2-6/8）净融资-97 亿，第 24 周（6/9-6/15）预计-291 亿。截至本周城投债余额约 10.5 万亿。 风险提示：数据统计误差，实际发行与计划差异较大。 核心观点 固定收益周报 证券分析师：董德志 联系人：王奕群 021-60933158 S0980513100001 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 23 周（6/2-6/8）2140 亿，第 24 周 （6/9-6/15）2689 亿。截至第 ...

辽宁发行20年期其他专项地方债，规模8.6500亿元，发行利率2.0800%，边际倍数1.05倍，倍数预期 2.08； 辽宁发行30年期其他专项地方债，规模5.0000亿元，发行利率2.0800%，边际倍数1.29倍，倍数预期 2.05。 辽宁发行10年期一般债地方债，规模159.6698亿元，发行利率1.7800%，边际倍数3.09倍，倍数预期 1.76； 辽宁发行15年期其他专项地方债，规模7.4000亿元，发行利率2.0300%，边际倍数1.25倍，倍数预期 1.98； 辽宁发行10年期医疗专项地方债，规模1.0500亿元，发行利率1.8000%，边际倍数2.00倍，倍数预期 1.76； ...

湖南发行7年期一般债地方债，规模94.4929亿元，发行利率1.6500%，边际倍数1.37倍，倍数预期1.66。 ...

中信证券研报表示，新型政策性金融工具时隔3年重启使用，规模为5000亿元，主要用于补充项目资本 金，加快投资项目落地进度。从近期地方政府召开的政策解读会、项目调度会相关报道看，新型政策性 金融工具的投向既包括城市基础设施、水利设施、交通基础设施等传统基建领域，也包括数字经济、人 工智能、低空经济等前沿科技产业。传统意义上政策性金融工具具有较大的撬动作用，化债环境下本次 撬动作用需结合企业贷款投放情况观察，但总体上财政政策显示出积极发力姿态，稳增长决心坚定。新 型政策性金融工具从推出到落地时滞约1-2个月，预计后续地方债发行使用将加速，特别国债支持的"两 重"项目也将加速落地，对今年下半年经济形成有力支撑。 ...