Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 12 日星期四 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 6 元至 1797 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1800 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 7469 手至 26.5 万手，空头持仓增加 3568 手至 27.9 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 21.56 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增加 2.10 万吨；开工率 91.56%，较去年同期 86.92%上涨 4.64%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 83.47 万吨，较上周减少 8.38 万吨，环比减少 9.12%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.4 万吨，环比持平。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 41.3%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 66.4%，环比+2.8%。 4、印度 RCF 发布尿素进口招标，意向 150 万 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global corn supply pressure has weakened, but the U.S. corn is still in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the domestic corn spot is relatively stable in the short term. After the Spring Festival, corn may decline slightly, and the short - term upward space of the 05 corn contract on the futures market is limited [4][6]. - The price of starch mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The 05 starch contract has risen following corn, and the starch spot has stabilized in the short term [7]. - The U.S. corn supply pressure has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The corn spot in North China is strong, and the 03 corn contract may decline [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data Futures Market - For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509), the closing prices are 2285, 2316, and 2331 respectively, with price increases of 21, 30, and 23, and price increase rates of 0.92%, 1.30%, and 0.99%. The trading volume of C2601 is 507 with an increase rate of 85.04%, C2605 is 790,787 with an increase rate of 103.56%, and C2509 is 31,530 with an increase rate of 188.97%. The open interest of C2601 is 3,527 with an increase rate of 2.29%, C2605 is 1,174,673 with an increase rate of 20.50%, and C2509 is 88,438 with an increase rate of 21.04% [2]. - For starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices are 2620, 2637, and 2658 respectively, with price increases of 20, 29, and 18, and price increase rates of 0.76%, 1.10%, and 0.68%. The trading volume of CS2601 is 8 with a decrease rate of 42.86%, CS2605 is 59,825 with an increase rate of 34.94%, and CS2509 is 1,189 with a decrease rate of 55.13%. The open interest of CS2601 is 80 with an increase rate of 0.00%, CS2605 is 148,017 with an increase rate of 9.78%, and CS2509 is 8,298 with a decrease rate of 0.11% [2]. Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions: Qinggang is 2135 yuan, Songyuan Jiajie is 2190 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2362 yuan, Shouguang is 2346 yuan, Jinzhou Port is 2330 yuan, Nantong Port is 2410 yuan, and Guangdong Port is 2450 yuan. The price in Shouguang has increased by 10 yuan, while others are stable. The basis in different regions ranges from - 196 to 119 [2]. - Starch spot prices in different regions: Longfeng is 2730 yuan, COFCO is 2700 yuan, Yihai (Heilongjiang) is 2700 yuan, Yufeng is 2830 yuan, Jinyu is 2820 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2920 yuan, and Hengren Industry and Trade is 2780 yuan. All prices are stable. The basis in different regions ranges from 63 to 283 [2]. Spread - Corn inter - period spreads: C01 - C05 is - 31 with a decrease of 9, C05 - C09 is - 15 with an increase of 7, C09 - C01 is 46 with an increase of 2 [2]. - Starch inter - period spreads: CS01 - CS05 is - 17 with a decrease of 9, CS05 - CS09 is - 21 with an increase of 11, CS09 - CS01 is 38 with a decrease of 2 [2]. - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 is 327 with a decrease of 5, CS01 - C01 is 335 with a decrease of 1, CS05 - C05 is 321 with a decrease of 1 [2]. 2. Market Judgment Corn - U.S. corn prices are oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, with the import price from Brazil in July being 2201 yuan. The northern port's flat - warehouse price is stable at around 2330 yuan, and the northeast and north China corn spot prices are stable. The price difference between north China and northeast corn has widened. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, and corn is still cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprises' inventory has increased. The 05 contract has increased in positions and broken through the previous high, but the short - term upward space is limited, and there may be a slight decline after the Spring Festival [4][6]. Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the Shandong corn spot price is strong. The starch price in Shandong is around 2780 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has increased to 102.5 million tons, an increase of 3.0 million tons from last week, with a monthly decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.9%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is starting to weaken but is still higher than last year. The 05 starch contract has risen following corn, and the starch spot has stabilized in the short term [7]. 3. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The 03 U.S. corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. All long positions in the 07 and 05 corn contracts should be liquidated [9]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for the 3 - 7 corn contracts, and go long on the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts when the price is low [9]. 4. Corn Options - Option strategy: Short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations [10]. 5. Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures showing the northern port's corn flat - warehouse price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread over different time periods [14][15][19]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年2月11日，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少。碳酸锂涨超9%，沪镍涨超4%，沪锡涨超3%，低硫燃料 油（LU）、不锈钢（SS）、红枣、铂、菜粕涨超2%，钯、丙烯涨超1%；跌幅方面，集运欧线跌超 1%，焦炭、玻璃、棕榈油跌近1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 물없 | 现手 | 2017 | 卖价 | 深幅3+ | And | 英国 | 成交量 | 漆肤 | 持合量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 碳酸锂2606 M | 150260 | 15 | 150360 | 086051 | 9.18% | 5 | 14 | 351874 12640 | | 356531 | 10542 | | 2 | PH2603 W | 09866E | 10 | 139360 | 086661 | 4.02% | 3 | 1 | 518625 5380 | | 76440 | -3802 | | 3 | 好多 ...

Morning session notice 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2605合约涨幅0.57%，收于2293 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、假期临近，现货购销清淡，部分企业停收。昨日深加工企业收购价弱稳为主。中 | | | | | 国粮油商务网监测数据显示东北地区深加工企业收购价2169元/吨，较前一日跌1元/ | | | | | 吨；华北地区企业收购均价2304元/吨，较前一日持平。 | | | | | 2、昨日南北港口价格小幅上涨。中国粮油商务网监测数据显示锦州港15%水二等玉 | | | | | 米收购价2280-2300元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2420元/吨，较 | | | | | 前一日涨10元/吨。 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 3、仓单方面，大商所数据显示截至2月10日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二主力合约期货BZ2603价格上涨42元至6069元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格6035 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 元/吨（环比+0），山东地区现货价格 | 6060 | 元/吨（环比-6）。持仓方面，多头减少 | 654 | 手至 | 1.8 | 万手，空头减少 | 1934 | 手至 | 1.85 | 万手。 | | | | | | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，1 | 月国内纯苯产量 | 191.5 | 万吨，同比-0.8%。12 | 月纯苯进口量 | 53.7 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore in the black building materials sector is expected to fluctuate. The main contract of iron ore is expected to have strong support at the 750 level before the holiday, and it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the approaching holiday [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - Iron ore closed flat on Tuesday and rose in the night session [1] Important Information - From February 2nd to February 8th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.3061 million square meters, a 12% month - on - month decrease [1] - In 2025, China's total social logistics volume exceeded 368 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.1% at comparable prices, and the logistics demand growth rate in each quarter remained stable throughout the year [1] - Starting from the settlement on February 12, 2026, the daily price limit of iron ore futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the trading margin level will be adjusted to 13%; the daily price limit of coke futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, and the trading margin level will remain unchanged; the daily price limit of coking coal futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, and the trading margin level will be adjusted to 14% [1] - From February 2nd to February 8th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 11.502 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.201 million tons, and the inventory level was lower than the average since the beginning of the year [1] Market Logic - As the holiday approaches, the hot metal output has changed little, and both the shipment and arrival of iron ore in this period have decreased [1] Trading Strategy - It is expected that the 750 level will still be a strong support for the main iron ore contract before the holiday. It is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the approaching holiday [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

当然，享受假期之余，我们也可以利用碎片化的时间读一本交易书籍，或了解海外市场的变化。这既能 让交易者保持对市场的敏感度，又不会让假期沦为另一种形式的"加班"，实现休息与蓄力的平衡。 真正的交易高手，能在市场中运筹帷幄，更能在生活中收放自如。(云霄) 倘若过去一年未能如愿盈利，也无需回避或焦虑，你可以坦诚地说："今年市场环境复杂，我没把握好 节奏，小有亏损，希望来年能做得更好。"真诚的回应能化解尴尬，也让亲友理解交易的风险。更重要 的是，这份坦然能让自己卸下心理包袱，不被亏损所束缚，安心享受假期。 春节假期，交易者难得按下"暂停键"，告别盘面、指标，回归生活。这时，不妨陪父母唠唠家常，帮家 里置办些年货，和许久未见的朋友聊聊天。这些烟火气十足的场景，能让紧绷的神经得到舒缓，也能让 疲惫的心灵获得治愈，以更松弛的状态为来年蓄力。 春节的脚步踏响归乡的序曲，团圆的餐桌旁、走亲访友的路上，交易者总会被格外"关注"。"今年赚了 不少吧？""听说金融市场风险大，你没亏太多吧？""你赚这么多，能带带我们吗？"一句句询问，往往 让沉浸在K线世界里的交易者瞬间绷紧神经。春节假期本是卸下重担、回归生活的时光，安心享受才是 对过往 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 1．盘面表现：昨日玉米05合约收盘于2293元/吨，日跌幅0.57%，整体波动有限。近期盘面成交与持仓均处于低位运行状态，节前资金参与度明显下降，期 价维持区间震荡格局。 2．下游需求：深加工企业陆续发布停收或减量收购通知，节前补库基本完成；饲料企业以执行前期合同为主，采购意愿偏弱。 3．市场关注&观点总结：节后多空主要分歧集中在节后气温回升后东北地趴粮是否集中上量，以及在此背景下企业库存的真实需求弹性。 预计节前玉米03合约维持2250–2275元/吨区间震荡，方向性选择有待节后供给释放与需求修复情况进一步验证。 豆粕：中性 1.USDA报告延续其谨慎风格，未对美豆平衡表做出调整，市场对此并不意外；同时上调巴西新作产量预估至1.8亿吨，亦符合市场预期。报告影响整体偏中 性，隔夜CBOT大豆受益于美豆油走强而跟随反弹； 2．南美方面，降雨预报仍呈现"北涝南旱"的分布特征，短期市场在巴西丰产兑现与阿根廷潜在减产叙事之间博弈，前者或对美盘反弹高度形成约束； 3．美豆上涨有望支撑连盘豆粕估值，同时考虑到春节期间外盘仍然可能因阿根廷天气风险 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong with an upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 and the upcoming textile projects in Xinjiang are factors influencing the market [6]. - In the short - term, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range. The trading strategies suggest building long positions on dips for the unilateral trade, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton all decreased by 70, while the CY05 and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn decreased by 45 and 25 respectively. The CY01 contract had no trading volume. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the open interest of the CF01 contract increased by 84, and that of the CF05 contract decreased by 270 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 45; the CY IndexC32S price was 21,455 yuan, unchanged. The prices of other varieties such as Cot A, FCY IndexC33S, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In the cotton and cotton yarn markets, there were changes in cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530, unchanged; the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5,750, up 25 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of January 22, 2026, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton was 55.5%. As of February 6, the planting was 88.1% complete, up 9.5 percentage points month - on - month, 0.7 percentage points faster year - on - year, and 3.6 percentage points slower than the three - year average. The planting progress in Mato Grosso and Bahia is in the middle - late stage [4]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9894 million tons, accounting for 98.7% of the estimated annual US cotton output, 6% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 98.6%, down 5% year - on - year; that of Pima cotton was 99.5%, 17% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 78.1%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.8%, 1.2 percentage points higher year - on - year [5]. Trading Logic - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2025 was 38.87 million mu. It is expected to decrease by 2.66 million mu to 36.21 million mu in 2026, a reduction of 7%. Some large - scale planters have received relevant notices. Several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang this year, which is beneficial to cotton consumption [6]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will trade in a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also trade in a range. It is advisable to build long positions on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has become quiet, with more spinning mills on holiday. Yarn prices are generally stable, and some spinning mills have slightly increased their quotes. - The full - cotton grey fabric market is getting more festive, and the market remains sluggish. Traders are gradually returning home. Some weaving mills report that post - holiday orders are fewer than in previous years. Weaving mills continue to stop production and reduce loads, and there is expected to be no significant change before the Spring Festival [9]. 3.3 Options - **Option Contract Information**: On January 19, 2026, for options such as CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC, the closing prices decreased by 16.9%, 17.7%, and 34.1% respectively, and the implied volatilities were 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [11]. - **Volatility and Volume PCR**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [11][12]. - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13].