Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the sugar market, the global supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season has been revised down due to potential production cuts in Brazil and India. However, Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic sugar prices face pressure from new sugar supply. The short - term sentiment has improved, but the medium - to - long - term is still under supply surplus pressure [3]. - The pulp market is currently in a situation where the futures are strong, and the spot price has followed the increase. The cost of warehouse receipts has risen, but the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is supported by the high production of finished paper during the peak season [3]. - The double - offset paper market has limited improvement in demand during the peak season, and the supply is relatively abundant. Although the cost is supported by the increase in pulp prices, the upward driving force is weak [5]. - The cotton market is under pressure from increased production and weak consumption. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - The apple market is supported by the decline in new - season production and good fruit rate, and the inventory is decreasing year - on - year. The price of the 2605 contract is expected to remain strong [8]. - The jujube market has seen a decline in the futures price, and the market's expectation of production cuts has cooled. The inventory removal speed has slowed down, and the price is expected to be weak [9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The new - season production and good fruit rate decline year - on - year, and the inventory continues to decline year - on - year, supporting the valuation. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 9700 - 9800 [18]. - Jujube 2601: Exit short positions at low prices. The futures premium is high, and there is a pressure for the futures and spot prices to converge. The support range is 9400 - 9500, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11300 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2601: Short on rebounds. The global supply surplus pressure remains, and domestic new sugar supply increases. The support range is 5380 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5520 - 5550 [18]. - Pulp 2601: Wait and see. The cost of pulp warehouse receipts has increased, but the supply remains high, and the fundamentals have limited improvement. The support range is 4900 - 5000, and the pressure range is 5400 - 5500 [18]. - Double - offset Paper 2601: Wait and see. The cost is supported by the increase in pulp prices, but the supply is elastic, and the demand suppresses the price. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4400 - 4500 [18]. - Cotton 2601: Reduce short positions at low prices. The new - cotton production estimate is stable, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 13700 - 13800 [18]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32%. As of November 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas decreased year - on - year [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In Shandong, the purchase price outside the warehouse was stable, and the price of medium - and small - sized apples in the cold - storage increased. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage transaction increased, and the price of the same - quality fruit in the cold - storage was higher than that outside the warehouse. In other producing areas, the situation varied. The arrival volume in the sales area decreased slightly, and the sales were stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 2.06% month - on - month and 131.35% year - on - year. The futures price continued to fall, and the spot price followed. The market's expectation of production cuts cooled [9][22]. - **Sugar Market**: Datagro lowered the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons. The Brazilian and Indian production estimates were reduced. The domestic new sugar supply increased, and the price faced pressure [3][24]. - **Pulp Market**: As of October 27, the weekly pulp inventory in sample areas decreased by 1.58% month - on - month. The domestic paper pulp import volume decreased in October, and the demand was supported by the high production of finished paper [3][26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In October, the average theoretical gross profit margin of the double - offset paper industry was - 6.57%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points from the previous month. The cost decline was narrower than the revenue decline, and the profitability continued to decline [27]. - **Cotton Market**: The import volume of cotton in Japan and Thailand changed in September, and the export volume of Cote d'Ivoire increased in October. The national cotton production estimate in November was 741.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from October [28]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2601 closed at 9504, up 297 or 3.23% [29]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 9195, down 170 or - 1.82% [29]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5512, up 34 or 0.62% [29]. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4906, up 16 or 0.33% [29]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13490, down 25 or - 0.18% [29]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 4 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.7 yuan [34]. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan [34]. - The spot price of sugar was 5760 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 560 yuan [34]. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5500 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 680 yuan [34]. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 450 yuan [34]. - The spot price of cotton was 14819 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 32 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 585 yuan [34]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 1 - 5 spread is - 34, with a month - on - month increase of 26 and a year - on - year increase of 507. It is expected to fluctuate and decline, and the recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [51]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is 390, with a month - on - month increase of 385 and a year - on - year increase of 275. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [51]. - Sugar 1 - 5 spread is 79, with a month - on - month increase of 12 and a year - on - year increase of 46. It is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [51]. - Cotton 1 - 5 spread is - 5, with a month - on - month increase of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 60. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [51]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 7721, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 5419 [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 221861, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 154591 [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 4180, a month - on - month increase of 296 and a year - on - year increase of 1736 [78]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and imports are likely to remain high in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it does not affect methanol's profit [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, while other price differentials fluctuate. LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025 [5]. - **PP**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene price is oscillating, and powder production starts are stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly in the future. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is frequent, the supply pressure can be eased [5]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In Q4, attention should be paid to the implementation of new production capacity and export sustainability. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB price of caustic soda exports is 380. PVC's comprehensive profit is - 100. Static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral [5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 7 to 13, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices showed some fluctuations. The daily change in some prices was - 5, and the import profit and主力基差 remained relatively stable [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 7 to 13, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, and other products changed. The daily change in North China LL was 20, and the主力期货 price increased by 30 [5]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 7 to 13, the price of Shandong propylene increased from 5600 to 5760. The prices of other products such as East China PP and North China PP also changed. The主力期货 price increased by 20 [5]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 7 to 13, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2400, and the price of Shandong caustic soda remained at 807. The prices of other products such as电石法 - East China and电石法 - Northwest also showed some changes [5][8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年11月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 11月13日期货交易所锌期货行情 | 交割月份 | 前结障 | 今开盘 | 腰高价 | 腰低价 | 收盘价 | 结算参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交價 | 持仓手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称:锌 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2511 | 22600 | 22530 | 22755 | 22525 | 22730 | 22635 | 130 | 35 | 1120 | 12678.28 | 557 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 14 日星期五 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 dddddddddddd | | | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SR601 合约收盘价 5512 元/吨，日涨幅 0.62%。夜盘收于 5498 元/吨；SR605 | | | | | 合约收盘价 5433 元/吨，日涨幅 0.41%。夜盘收于 5426 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日 ICE 原糖主力合约收盘价 14.43 美分/磅，日跌幅 0.96%。 | | | | | 2.据印度报业托拉斯（PTI）报道，食品部长普拉哈德・乔希表示，中央政府已决定 | | | | | 允许 2025/26 榨季出口食糖 150 万吨，低于业内人士此前要求的 200 万吨 ...

在今年的实盘大赛中，"M先生"的操盘者吴伟淼获得长期稳定盈利组第二名的好成绩。 短线猎手 他认为，交易者止损不坚决是因为对自己设定的止损位不够信任，怕止损后行情就反转。这时，交易者 应当回归策略研究，看自己所设的止损位是否经过客观分析，值不值得信任。 交易之外 后来，他转战商品市场。2016年4月某个星期五，他有一张棉花空单未平仓，谁知接下来的周一早上， 棉花期货迅速涨停封板，晚上平仓时单日亏损近70%。这次教训让他学会了敬畏市场，不断完善交易漏 洞，层层设置"防爆墙"。 吴伟淼把第一个"10万元"盈利看作里程碑。"这证明我的交易系统具备可行性。此后从10万元到100万 元，再到1000万元，我的每一步都走得很踏实、稳健。"他特别强调模拟交易的训练价值。他建议新手 用模拟交易磨炼技艺，同时夯实理论知识，更好地了解市场。 取舍之道 "取舍"是吴伟淼的交易哲学。在他看来，交易本质上是一门逻辑学，围绕进场、出场两个关键词研究策 略。要想取得利润，就要舍弃部分本金，因此进场前的止损预案比进场理由更重要。"每笔交易都可能 亏损，所以要先把最坏的情况想清楚。"这种近乎苛刻的风险意识，使他在剧烈波动中时刻保持清醒。 "交易 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Not clearly indicated, but the operation suggestion is to wait and see [2] - Pulp: One star, representing a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: Not clearly indicated, but the price is expected to remain weak [3] - Apple: Not clearly indicated, but short - term prices are expected to remain strong [4] - Log: Not clearly indicated, but the operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] - 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Butadiene rubber: One star, representing a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1][5] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show different trends. Factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory influence their prices. The report provides corresponding operation suggestions for each commodity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined slightly, with a risk of short - term downward break. New cotton cost provides some support, but price increases face hedging pressure. The cotton yarn market is stable with stable demand. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Brazilian production data in mid - October was neutral. Domestic sugar prices are weakly oscillating. The market's focus is on the next season's production estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices rose significantly. The inventory decreased year - on - year. Short - term prices are strong, but the long - term de - stocking situation is the key trading point [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber - Futures prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber rose, and butadiene rubber futures prices rose slightly. Supply pressure is easing, demand is slowly increasing, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices continued to rise. The inventory decreased. Short - term upward space may be limited, but there is a risk of a short squeeze. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [6] Log - Futures prices are weakly operating. Supply may remain low, demand supports prices, and low inventory also provides some support. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. Although the recent Sino - US relations have eased and the price has rebounded, the production remains high. The import profit of foreign corn is falling, and the Brazilian import price in December is 2156 yuan. [4] - The spot price of domestic corn is relatively strong in the short - term. The northern port closing price has risen, the supply in North China has decreased, and the downstream feed enterprises have low inventory. However, the market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn and downstream inventory - building. [4][6] - The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The 01 starch follows the corn to oscillate strongly, but the corn in North China may fall in December, and the rebound space of the 01 starch is limited. [7] - For trading strategies, the US corn may continue to adjust the yield per unit downward, but it is expected to increase production, remaining in a narrow - range oscillation. The 01 corn rebound space is limited, and it is advisable to wait and see for 05 and 01 corn. One can try to shrink the spread between 01 corn and starch when it is high. [8][9] - For option strategies, a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations is recommended. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2186, up 9 (0.41%), with a trading volume of 540,710 (up 18.39%) and an open interest of 957,369 (down 0.61%); C2605 closed at 2257, up 6 (0.27%), with a trading volume of 58,889 (up 38.10%) and an open interest of 275,208 (up 4.37%); C2509 closed at 2282, up 3 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 3,043 (up 27.59%) and an open interest of 15,950 (down 0.57%). For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2507, up 17 (0.68%), with a trading volume of 109,742 (up 33.81%) and an open interest of 236,760 (up 0.70%); CS2605 closed at 2583, up 6 (0.23%), with a trading volume of 570 (up 41.58%) and an open interest of 5,988 (down 0.93%); CS2509 closed at 2628, up 3 (0.11%), with a trading volume of 47 (up 34.29%) and an open interest of 533 (up 2.50%) [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends. The prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, etc. were reported, with some prices rising. The basis of corn and starch in different regions was also provided. For example, the basis of corn in Qinggang was - 322, and the basis of starch in Longfeng was 67 [2]. - **Spreads**: Corn inter - period spreads (e.g., C01 - C05 was - 71, up 3), starch inter - period spreads (e.g., CS01 - CS05 was - 76, up 11), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., CS09 - C09 was 346, unchanged) were presented [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market is oscillating narrowly. The import profit of foreign corn is falling. The spot price of domestic corn is relatively strong in the short - term, with the northern port closing price rising, the supply in North China decreasing, and the downstream feed enterprises having low inventory. However, the market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn and downstream inventory - building [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The 01 starch follows the corn to oscillate strongly, but the corn in North China may fall in December, and the rebound space of the 01 starch is limited [7]. 3.3 Corn Options The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. Information on option contracts such as C2605 - P - 2160.DCE and C2601 - P - 2080.DCE, including the underlying asset price, closing price, and change in implied volatility, was provided [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments Graphs such as the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of corn starch 01 contract were presented, showing the price trends of different periods [13][15][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of having a comprehensive trading tool for futures trading, highlighting the capabilities of the Sina Finance APP as a one-stop solution for market data, news, and trading functionalities. Group 1: Market Data - The APP provides access to all major exchanges including SHFE, DCE, CZCE, and CFFEX, offering real-time price updates with millisecond refresh rates [1] - Users can apply various free technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands, MACD, and Fibonacci retracement, making it accessible for beginners [1] - Custom price alerts can be set, allowing users to receive notifications for significant market movements [1] Group 2: News and Information - The APP features a 24/7 news service that delivers important data, sudden news, and policy documents instantly [2] - It includes a "Futures Live Room" where experts simplify complex macroeconomic factors, inventory levels, weather, and shipping information for users [2] - Users can view news articles directly linked to market charts, facilitating seamless analysis [3] Group 3: Trading Functionality - The APP collaborates with reputable futures companies like CITIC, Everbright, and COFCO, ensuring transparent commission structures [4] - Online account opening is streamlined with identity verification and progress notifications, taking only three minutes [5] - Features like conditional orders, stop-loss, and cloud-based orders allow for automated trading even when the user is offline [5] Group 4: Additional Features - The APP includes a fund flow heat map to visualize market sentiment regarding long and short positions [6] - It offers graphical representations of major players' positions, eliminating the need for manual data analysis [7] - The dark mode and landscape viewing options enhance user experience, especially during night trading [8] - Users can synchronize their favorite stocks, alert prices, and saved articles across devices [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and production has recovered, improving the supply shortage. Thus, the lead price is under pressure above [1]. - For zinc, overseas structural risks have weakened, and there is insufficient momentum for the zinc price to continue rising. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities brought by the recovery of the Shanghai-London ratio. In the medium term, the mine end will tighten in the fourth quarter [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 1.26% compared to the previous day [1]. - The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was $2,092.00 per ton, up 1.21% [1]. Spread - The basis of Shanghai lead was -335.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195.00 yuan [1]. - The spreads of Shanghai lead in different months showed certain changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the continuous first contract being -60.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.00 yuan [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 55,843.00 lots, an increase of 80.99% [1]. - The open interest of the active futures contract was 50,539.00 lots, a decrease of 8.29% [1]. Inventory - The LME inventory was 225,225.00 tons, with no change [1]. - The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 24,686.00 tons, an increase of 3.86% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, there is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall. Some refineries have maintenance arrangements, and the operation of primary lead has a slight fluctuation. The operation of secondary lead has recovered to over 50%, and the supply has increased, but the inventory accumulation of refineries is not obvious [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, the operation of lead - acid battery enterprises is okay, and the demand has increased. However, due to high lead prices, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold the previous short positions [1]. Zinc Price - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.22% compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.02% compared to the previous day [1]. - The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was $3,072.00 per ton, up 0.10% [1]. Spread - The basis of Shanghai zinc was -140.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.00 yuan [1]. - The spreads of Shanghai zinc in different months also had changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the continuous first contract being -70.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.00 yuan [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 71,426.00 lots, a decrease of 12.58% [1]. - The open interest of the active futures contract was 105,905.00 lots, a decrease of 1.46% [1]. Inventory - The LME inventory was 35,875.00 tons, with no change [1]. - The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 70,890.00 tons, an increase of 0.53% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, but there may be a downward trend in domestic TC in October. The supply of refineries is expected to increase, and the export window of zinc ingots is expected to open [1]. - On the demand side, there is no significant improvement [1]. Trading Strategy - Wait for the opportunity to buy on dips after the callback [1]. Other Information - On November 11, the China Zinc Smelters Purchasing Team (CZSPT) held a quarterly meeting in Kunming, Yunnan, and released the guidance price range for the import zinc concentrate procurement US dollar processing fee before the end of the first quarter of 2026: 105 US dollars (average) - 120 US dollars (average) per dry ton [1]. - On November 11, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of $117.04 per ton, and the open interest was 219,916 lots, a decrease of 750 lots [1]. - On November 11, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $20.89 per ton, and the open interest was 153,641 lots, an increase of 2,117 lots [1].

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 13, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show weak and volatile trends today due to oversupply, with neutral to high industrial inventories and fluctuating crude oil prices [4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US leaders' meeting, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but restocking for other films is ending. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6840 (+20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 52, with a premium ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing in China-US talks; bearish factors are weak year-on-year demand and significant new production capacity in Q4 [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing sentiment declined in October. After the China-US leaders' meeting and OPEC+ announcement, oil prices fluctuated. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is improving. The current PP delivery spot price is 6470 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 10, with a premium ratio of 0.2%, considered neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, still bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors are new sanctions on Russian oil and a phased easing in China-US talks; bearish factors are weak year-on-year demand and significant new production capacity in Q4 [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6840 (+20), the 01 contract price is 6788 (+28), the basis is 52 (-8), the import price in US dollars is 813 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 7114 (unchanged), and the import spread is -274 (+20). The warehouse receipt is 12,067 (-6), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), and the social inventory is 500,000 tons (-100,000) [8] - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6470 (unchanged), the 01 contract price is 6460 (+31), the basis is 10 (-31), the import price in US dollars is 765 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 6702 (unchanged), and the import spread is -232 (unchanged). The warehouse receipt is 14,642 (+13), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000), and the social inventory is 324,000 tons (-9,000) [8] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4,319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4,906 [15]