投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【尿素周报（UR)】 宏观情绪降温，行情回归基本面 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-08-04 陈一凡 从业资格证号：F3054270 投资咨询证号：Z0015946 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 尿素:宏观情绪降温，行情回归基本面 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）产量：尿素产量135.48万吨，较上周增加0.01吨，环比涨0.01%；周均日产19.35万吨，较上周基本持平。周期内宁夏、安徽、河北等省产量有一定增 加，产量有减少的省份是河南、内蒙古、山西等。2、开工率：尿素产能利用率83.60%，环比涨0.01%。周期内环比开工上涨的省份在宁夏、甘肃、河北、 | | | | 安徽等，环比开工下降的省份在河南、内蒙古、山西等。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （1）山东临沂复合肥样本生产企业尿素需求量1130吨，较上周增加310吨，环比涨37.80%。短时复合肥开工小幅 ...

2025.08.04-08.08 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约进入震荡整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量213万吨，表观消费量218万吨，主要钢厂库存166万 吨，社会库存576万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中，资金面略偏空方。 2 观望等待整理阶段完成。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入红色量能阶梯区域第五周。 n 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入震荡整理阶段，耐心等待新一轮中线趋势。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 耐心等待整理阶段完成。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly. The short - term digestion of the anti - involution in the macro - aspect did not lead to better transaction volume with price drops. Downstream buyers still mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In the industrial chain, ore prices and ferronickel prices were weakly stable, but some ferronickel quotes rebounded. The cost line remained low. July and August are traditional off - seasons for stainless steel consumption, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, which is beneficial for the increase in nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - Technically, on the daily K - line, the price is running below the 20 - day moving average. The important support and resistance levels of the Fibonacci retracement are effective. The main funds have not decreased, and short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD indicator shows a death cross, and the KDJ has entered the oversold area with a rebound demand. Overall, it is expected to move in a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Weak operation this week, with long - term oversupply unchanged. The macro - situation has short - term digestion, downstream purchases are rigid - demand based, and new energy vehicle data is positive [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: Red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% prices remained unchanged from last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased by 2.95%, 3.19%, and 3.10% respectively [14]. - **Nickel Iron**: Low - grade ferronickel in Shandong decreased by 3.03%, while high - grade ferronickel remained unchanged. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals data, high - grade ferronickel increased by 2.5 yuan/nickel, and low - grade ferronickel increased by 100 yuan/ton [13][46][47]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 0.18% [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Ore prices were stable, and shipping costs were flat. As of July 31, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 9.9436 million wet tons, an increase of 0.66%. In June 2025, nickel ore imports were 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. The market was mostly in a wait - and - see state, and downstream procurement was cautious [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - This week, nickel prices oscillated weakly, and downstream buyers made rigid - demand purchases. The import window opened, and some Norwegian nickel resources increased. In the long - term, supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply pattern remains. In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons. Import and export data also showed certain changes [25][26][30]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices were weakly stable. In June 2025, China's nickel pig iron production was 23,300 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35%. The import volume in June was 1.041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50.0% [45][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased slightly. In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month. The import volume was 109,500 tons, and the export volume was 390,000 tons. As of August 1, the national inventory was 1.1112 million tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons, while the 300 - series inventory increased by 6,700 tons [59][64][71]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June 2025, the production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [77][78]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The Fibonacci retracement levels are effective. The main funds are still active, short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD shows a death cross, and the KDJ is in the oversold area, indicating a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Combing Summary - **Influence on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore and ferronickel are neutral - bearish; refined nickel is neutral; stainless steel is neutral; new energy is neutral - bullish [88]. - **Trading Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [90].

Group 1: Report Core View - The overall fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot prices strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply starting to increase, foreign spot prices strong, domestic inventories beginning to rise, and tire operating rates at a high level. The base - difference is neutral, the inventory situation is mixed, the price is running below the 20 - day line, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, and short - term trading is influenced by market sentiment [6]. 2. Fundamental Data Supply - Supply is increasing, and import volume is seasonally declining [8][22]. Demand - Downstream consumption is high, automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, and tire production is at a record high for the same period, but tire industry exports are falling [8][25][31]. Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) fell on August 1st, and the spot price is resistant to decline. The base - difference strengthened on August 1st [10][8][37]. Inventory - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the inventory in Qingdao area has been slightly increasing [16][19]. 3. Multiple and Short Factors and Main Risk Points Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is anti - involution in the domestic market [8]. Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing, and the inventory in Qingdao area has not seasonally decreased [8].

每经AI快讯，8月2日，美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至7月29日当周，股票基金经理将 芝加哥商业交易所(CME)标普500指数净多头头寸增加18743份合约，至869641份合约；净空头头寸增加 32269份合约，至363032份合约。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper: After the copper tariff is implemented, the market returns to fundamentals. With prices falling continuously, downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices, and trading sentiment has improved. The short - term market is bearish, and the price may find support around 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether the non - farm payroll data tonight affects the interest rate cut expectation [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply - demand situation has tightened, which supports the downside. However, there is a possibility of giving back the gains if the production suspension news is falsified [8]. - Crude Oil: The recent crude oil price is in a strong oscillation. On August 3, the 8 voluntary OPEC+ production - cut countries will announce their September crude oil production policy, so it is recommended to operate cautiously and mainly wait and see [10]. - Asphalt: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. The cost support has strengthened, and policies are more favorable for the far - month outlook, but the impact on the near - month is limited [11][12]. - PP: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. It is recommended to conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread. The industry has not seen actual policy implementation, and the market sentiment is weakening [13]. - Plastic: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. The industry lacks actual policy support, and the macro - sentiment is weakening [14][15]. - PVC: It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. The demand has not improved substantially, and the macro - sentiment is cooling [16]. - Coking Coal: The downward space is limited under the expectation of supply tightening, but attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent production decline on demand [18]. - Urea: The market is still in a weak operation as the fundamentals lack obvious support [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 1, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Lithium carbonate and red dates rose by more than 1%. Coking coal dropped by more than 7%, and industrial silicon dropped by more than 4%. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:28 on August 1, Shanghai copper 2509, coking coal 2601, and Shanghai gold 2510 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Individual Futures Analysis Copper - The US imposed a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive manufactured goods on August 1. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly. The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling. The copper tariff implementation may affect export demand. The short - term market is bearish [7]. Lithium Carbonate - It opened high and closed low, then rose in the afternoon and ended up. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The market expects a reduction in supply, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream demand is expected to increase [8]. Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. The US crude oil inventory is at a low level, but the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will make decisions on September production on August 3. The price is in a strong oscillation [10]. Asphalt - The supply is expected to decrease in August. The downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level. The cost support has strengthened, and it is expected to oscillate [11][12]. PP - The downstream and enterprise开工 rates are at a low - to - neutral level. The US tariff and propane import restrictions have an impact. The inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [13]. Plastic - The开工 rate has increased. The downstream开工 rate is at a low level. The inventory is high. The cost has increased. It is expected to oscillate [14][15]. PVC - The开工 rate is at a high level. The downstream demand is weak. The inventory is high. The demand has not improved substantially, and it is expected to oscillate downward [16]. Coking Coal - The supply may be tightened, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The demand from downstream steel mills is strong, but attention should be paid to the impact of production decline [18]. Urea - The production is expected to decrease slightly. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has started to accumulate. The market is weak [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategies for corn, hog, and egg futures in the semi - annual report and regular reports have been verified by the market. For corn, the short - term price is under pressure, the medium - term new - season contract may first decline and then rise; for hogs, the short - term price may be strong, the medium - term supply increase makes continuous price rise difficult, and the long - term supply pressure may weaken if the policy is implemented; for eggs, the short - term price faces correction pressure, the medium - term may have a rebound, and the long - term supply pressure may re - emerge [8][15][57][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Period Review - In July, corn futures broke through and declined, hog futures rose first and then fell, and egg futures moved down. The strategies in the semi - annual report and regular reports were verified by the market. For example, for corn, the suggestion of taking profit on long positions and short - selling was verified; for hogs, the suggestion of paying attention to selling hedging opportunities was verified; for eggs, the suggestion of paying attention to high - short opportunities was verified [7][8]. - Corn 2509 contract had a monthly decline of 3.78%, closing at 2288 yuan/ton; hog 2509 contract had a monthly increase of 1.48%, closing at 14075 yuan/ton; egg 2506 contract had a monthly decline of 4.53%, closing at 3522 yuan/500 kilograms [11]. 2. Corn Variety Analysis Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, while the supply pressure of US corn still exists. In China, in the long - term, there is a corn production - demand gap, and the substitution pricing logic remains unchanged. In the medium - term, the focus is on new - season yield, production, and planting cost. In the short - term, continuous import corn auctions and the inverted price difference between wheat and corn in Shandong put pressure on the upward space of the spot price [13]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, the hog production capacity has increased, and the supply in the second half of the year is still rising. The存栏 of egg - laying and meat - poultry is high, and feed consumption is rigid. Deep - processing consumption is stable and slightly increasing, providing rigid support for corn prices [13]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the inverted price difference between wheat and corn in Shandong makes the spot price weak. In the medium - term, the new - season corn trading drivers are strengthening, and the decline in new - season planting cost puts pressure on the far - month contract expectations. In the long - term, the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost remains, and policy guidance should be focused on [14]. Trading Strategy - In the short - term, the weakness continues to test the lower support. In the medium - term, the new - season contract may first decline and then rise. The 09 contract may continue to fluctuate, with the medium - term support at 2250; the 11 contract is the weakest and short - selling opportunities can be considered, with the medium - term support at 2180 - 2200; the 01 contract can consider low - buying opportunities, with the medium - term support at 2150 - 2200 [15]. 3. Hog Market Analysis Macro and Industry Logic - **Macro Logic**: Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and hog prices and industrial policy guidance [53]. - **Industry Logic**: Under the background of normalized epidemics after African Swine Fever, passive capacity reduction leads to significant short - term fluctuations in hog prices. The large - scale concentration process of the breeding end is not over, and the production capacity of the top 30 breeding groups in 2025 is expected to increase year - on - year [53]. "Anti - involution" Policy - Driven Futures Logic - The second quarter of 2026 may be the watershed of hog supply. The sow reduction policy only affects the supply after May 2026. The 2605 contract is the turning point. Before 2605, the supply is abundant, and after 2605, the supply may decrease if the sow number decreases [54]. - Low raw material costs may limit the premium of far - month contracts. In 2026, the full cost of leading breeding enterprises may be 12 - 13 yuan/kg, and the hog price may fluctuate between 13 - 15 yuan/kg [56]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the reduction in hog slaughter at the end and beginning of the month may support the price to stop falling and stabilize. In the medium - term, the supply increase in the second half of the year makes continuous price rise difficult. In the long - term, if the policy is implemented, the supply pressure after the second quarter of next year may weaken, driving up the valuation of next - year's second - half contracts [57]. 4. Egg Variety Analysis Supply and Demand Logic - Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is seasonally driven. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high, and new production capacity is still being put into operation. Seasonal peak consumption may support the price to rise periodically. The key is the rhythm and amplitude of capacity elimination [82]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the egg price has confirmed the bottom but faces correction pressure due to rising inventory. In the medium - term, concentrated elimination and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a price rebound, but the rebound height depends on the chicken culling rhythm. In the long - term, if the breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [83]. Trading Strategy - The short - selling strategies in the first half of the year have been verified. Currently, it is recommended to hold short positions. The 2509 contract should pay attention to the support at 3400 - 3450, and the 2510 contract at 3250 - 3280 [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillating trend. Although chemical demand is strong, the weak combustion demand restricts upward movement. International LPG prices are weak, and factors such as increased warehouse receipts and regional differences also affect the market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data and Changes - From July 25 to July 31, 2025, the price of South China LPG decreased from 4500 to 4440 (-40), East China LPG remained at 4413, Shandong LPG decreased from 4630 to 4540 (-40), propane CFR South China increased from 549 to 550 (+5), propane CIF Japan increased from 514 to 555 (+28), MB propane spot decreased from 71 to 73 (-1), CP forecast contract price increased from 522 to 530 (+7), Shandong ether - after carbon four decreased from 4900 to 4910 (-20), Shandong alkylated oil decreased from 7980 to 7970 (-30), paper import profit decreased from -33 to -120 (-82), and the main basis increased from 453 to 437 (+9) [1] 2. Market Conditions on Thursday - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4413. FEI oscillated, CP slightly declined, and the official CP prices for August were announced, with propane/butane at 520/490 respectively. PP prices dropped, and the production profits of FEI and CP for PP slightly weakened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG futures weakened, the monthly spread slightly weakened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -438 (-13). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed [1] 3. PG Market Conditions - The PG futures oscillated. International LPG prices were weak, and the significant increase in warehouse receipts suppressed the futures. Domestic chemical demand increased, but weak combustion demand restricted upward movement. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4413 yuan/ton. The basis weakened to 370 (-63). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. The warehouse receipt registration volume was 9804 lots (+1000), with 1000 lots added by Qingdao Yunda. The overseas prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio weakened. In terms of regional spreads, PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB reached 155 (-6), FEI - CP reached 4.5 (+4.5); the US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1] 4. Weekly View - The FEI propane discount continued to decline, and the CP landed discount oscillated. The change in FEI - MOPJ was small, with the latest at -47.5 (-3.75). PDH profits improved, and MTBE export profits declined. The arrival volume decreased significantly, with ships in South China delayed due to typhoons, and port inventories decreased. Factory inventories slightly increased. The commodity volume decreased by 0.53%. Chemical demand was strong; the PDH operating rate increased significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct) as Zhenhua Petrochemical and Hebei Haiwei gradually increased their loads. Next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation; the alkylation operating rate increased, and Henan Chengxin's alkylation unit has a restart plan; the MTBE operating load increased, with manufacturers focusing on exports, and the overall operation was stable. Weak combustion demand restricted upward movement [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral, with a focus on low - buying opportunities [5] - PX: Neutral, expecting low - buying [6] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bullish, suggesting attention to low - buying opportunities on pullbacks [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Downstream restocking has stabilized demand during the off - season. Supply maintenance is significant, and the market is in a tight balance from July to August. Overall inventory is not high, and it is supported by macro factors and crude oil in the short term [5][50] - PX: Low inventory, decent supply - demand fundamentals, stable spot prices. Short - term cost and macro factors are strong, so low - buying is expected [6][78] - Ethylene Glycol: Low inventory, extended maintenance of integrated units, a tight balance. Short - term macro factors and coal prices are strong, and low inventory provides support. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [7][113] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PTA - **Device Changes**: Fuhai Chuang is under maintenance until the end of August, Weilian Chemical will restart in early August. YS Dahua plans maintenance in early August, YS Hainan plans technological transformation in August, and Jiaxing Petrochemical has a maintenance plan in August. New materials slightly reduced their load due to the typhoon [39][41] - **Inventory**: As of July 25, PTA social inventory slightly increased to 220.5 million tons (excluding credit warehouse receipts), with a 1.6 - million - ton increase. Warehouse receipt inventory is not high, and in - port and in - warehouse goods are relatively high [42] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Supply - demand changes are small, maintaining a tight balance from July to August. Demand has stabilized during the off - season, and it is supported by cost and macro factors [50] 3.2 PX - **Device Changes**: Domestic operating rate is 79.9%, and Asian operating rate is 72.9%. Tianjin Petrochemical is under maintenance, Shenghong slightly reduced its load, and Jinling Petrochemical increased its load. Weilian plans to restart in early August. The new Daxie reforming and disproportionation units are planned to produce in August, and Yulong MX is under commissioning [6][73][78] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The balance is tight, and PXN has corrected to around $260 - 270. It is supported by short - term macro factors and crude oil [78] 3.3 Ethylene Glycol - **Device Changes**: The overall load is 68%, and the coal - based load is 74%. For oil - based production, Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to restart in early August, and Satellite Petrochemical has postponed its restart to the end of September. For coal - based production, Yangmei, Jianyuan, Yueneng, and Sinochem have restarted, Tianying is shut down, and Shenhua Yulin slightly reduced its load [7][87][113] - **Inventory**: As of July 28, the inventory at major ports in East China is about 521,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory is at a relatively low level [109] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The balance is tight from July to August, with low inventory and little pressure to accumulate inventory [113] 3.4 Polyester Industry - **Operating Rate**: As of July 25, the polyester load is 88.7%. After downstream restocking, the inventory pressure has decreased. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 67% (+6%), 59% (+3%), and 65% (-2%) respectively [14][50] - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the average polyester inventory is about 18.8 days. The inventories of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber are 16.5, 23.3, 23.8, and 12.8 days respectively [14][25] - **Profit**: The overall profit of the polyester industry chain is average. The losses of filament profit have slightly recovered, and the profits of bottle chips, staple fibers, and chips have slightly improved [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is Neutral to Bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, PVC production has increased, and the industry chain continues to accumulate inventory, increasing pressure on PVC. Recently, low - valued varieties are greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly with the previous upward movement of the futures market. It is expected that as September approaches, pricing will return to fundamentals [3] - The 9 - 1 month spread has been oscillating weakly recently [3] - Overseas uncertainties are high, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Materials (Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide) - Lanthanum Coke: The operating rate of sample enterprises remained stable at 39.14%, and the price of Shenmu medium - grade lanthanum coke was reported at 580 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [6] - Calcium Carbide: Supply slightly increased, with the operating rate rising 0.9 percentage points to 72.2% (medium - low overall). The price of Wuhai calcium carbide dropped to 2225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from last week, and the profit was - 306 yuan [12] 3.2 PVC Supply - The overall operating rate of PVC powder was 75.81%, a 0.84 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 79.21%, up 1.69 percentage points, while that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 66.95%, down 1.36 percentage points. Tianjin Dagu plans to start mass production in August, and Haijing plans to start production at the end of August [3][17] 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - Downstream product operating rates: Pipe operating rate was 32.52% (- 1.23%), and profile operating rate was 38.00% (+ 3.45%), both lower than the same period last year [25] - Exports: From January to June, PVC powder exports were 196 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 66 million tons (+ 50.7%), but exports weakened significantly in June. From January to June, PVC powder imports were 12.42 million tons, basically the same as last year. From January to June, cumulative floor exports were 209 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [61][62][64] 3.4 PVC Inventory - Social inventory increased to 63.12 million tons, an increase of 2.21 million tons from the previous period. Among them, East China sample inventory was 58.72 million tons, up 2.16 million tons, and South China sample inventory was 4.40 million tons, up 0.05 million tons. Upstream factory inventory decreased to 37.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.32 million tons from the previous period. The industry chain inventory increased [32][33] 3.5 PVC Profit - Calcium - carbide integration losses slightly narrowed. Xinjiang integration profit was - 290 yuan/ton, and Northwest integration profit was - 767 yuan/ton. The profit of the purchased calcium - carbide method rebounded. The profit of the Northwest purchased calcium - carbide method was - 114 yuan/ton, and that of the North China purchased calcium - carbide method was - 393 yuan/ton [43] - The profit of the purchased ethylene method slightly rebounded. East China ethylene - based profit was 463 yuan/ton, and North China ethylene - based profit was 613 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week [46] - Comprehensive profit strengthened. Northwest comprehensive profit was 684 yuan/ton and continued to increase. Shandong comprehensive profit was 160 yuan/ton. The double - ton price difference increased by 210 to 3459 yuan/ton [55] 3.6 Related Commodities - Since 2024, real - estate demand has continued to weaken, cement prices have declined, and the operating rate has remained low [68] 3.7 Futures - Spot Analysis - The futures market strengthened. The 09 contract rose from 4937 last week to 5149 at the last closing. The 9 - 1 month spread weakened to - 128. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, reaching 56,410 on July 28, an increase of 1770 from last week [79] 3.8 PVC Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows monthly production, demand, imports, exports, inventory changes, year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and demand from 2024 to 2025 [81]