Group 1: OPEC Production Decisions - OPEC has agreed to a large-scale production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, marking the third consecutive month of such announcements, which may lead to further declines in oil prices [1][2] - As of May 27, hedge funds have significantly increased their short positions on Brent crude oil, with net short positions rising by 16,922 contracts to 130,019 contracts, the highest level since October of the previous year [2] Group 2: Impact on Energy and Coal Industries - International oil prices have seen a decline of nearly 15% this year, raising concerns about the future profitability of the oil extraction industry, with major oil companies expected to report a 29% decrease in net profits for Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [2] - The domestic coal industry is also facing challenges, with the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal dropping to 618 RMB/ton, a decrease of over 150 RMB/ton or 19.7% since the beginning of the year, marking a four-year low [3] Group 3: Chemical Industry and Pricing Strategies - The chemical industry is experiencing significant price volatility due to fluctuating raw material costs and uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies, leading to increased demand for effective price risk management [4][5] - The price of ethylene glycol, a key chemical product, has seen fluctuations from a high of 4,867 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year to a low of below 4,000 RMB/ton, reflecting an 18% drop, before rebounding to 4,557 RMB/ton [4] Group 4: Risk Management Practices - Companies are increasingly adopting futures hedging strategies to mitigate the risks associated with price volatility, with a focus on optimizing procurement costs through basis pricing [5][6] - The ethylene glycol industry is transitioning to a new trading model, utilizing options and futures to manage risks effectively, with a growing emphasis on basis pricing as a key pricing strategy [7]

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-05-21 等待下游利润改善 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存12.80万吨（+0.50万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费183美元/吨（+1美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费166美元/吨（+1美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差66.7美元/吨（-5.0美元/吨），仍处于关闭状态。华东纯苯现货-M2价差 -25元/吨（+10元/吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差270元/吨（+24元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润320元/吨（-164元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存52100吨（-4600吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存36900吨（-8000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率71.3%（-0.9%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润279元/吨（+73元/吨），PS生产利润-322元/吨（-27元/吨），ABS生产利润181元/吨（+134 元/吨）。EPS开工率62.34%（+14.96%），PS开工率57.10%（+0.80%），ABS开工率67.39%（-1.61%），下游开工季 节性低位。 市场分析 恒力苯乙烯装置故障检修一个月，后续仍有浙石化检修；周一苯乙烯 ...

Sector Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The polyester industry chain was significantly affected by US tariff hikes on textile and clothing exports. After the China-US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment has improved. The China-US joint statement's results exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [3]. - On the supply side, recent maintenance of PX, TA, and EG has been concentrated, leading to a significant supply contraction. Combined with the expectation of trade easing, the willingness to hold goods has strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near-month basis [3]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a historical high due to the resilience of filament and better-than-expected bottle chip exports. After the China-US joint statement, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain high in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecasts for different polyester products are as follows: ethylene glycol (EG) is 4,250 - 4,750 yuan/ton, PX is 6,400 - 7,000 yuan/ton, PTA is 4,500 - 5,000 yuan/ton, and bottle chips are 5,750 - 6,350 yuan/ton. The current 20-day rolling volatility and its 3-year historical percentile are also provided [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about EG price drops, companies can short EG futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,550 - 4,600 yuan/ton. They can also buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,375 - 4,400 yuan/ton [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and companies want to purchase based on orders, they can buy EG futures to lock in procurement costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,350 - 4,400 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops, with a 75% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,460 - 4,490 yuan/ton [2]. Core Contradictions - The polyester industry chain was affected by US tariff hikes on textile and clothing exports. After the China-US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment improved. The joint statement's results exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [3]. - On the supply side, recent maintenance of PX, TA, and EG has been concentrated, leading to a significant supply contraction. Combined with the expectation of trade easing, the willingness to hold goods has strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near-month basis [3]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a historical high due to the resilience of filament and better-than-expected bottle chip exports. After the China-US joint statement, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain high in the short term [3]. 利多解读 - No specific content is provided in the report. 利空解读 - Price data for various products on May 15, 2025, May 14, 2025, and May 8, 2025, are presented, including daily and weekly changes [5][8]. 利多因素 - The China-US joint statement led to an unexpected reduction in tariffs, improving macro sentiment [7]. - Polyester load reached a historical high. Before the holiday, filament inventory decreased significantly due to downstream stocking, alleviating inventory pressure [7]. - Terminal orders to the US partially recovered due to tariff reduction, and there are signs of recovery in terminal demand during the exemption period [7]. - Unexpected shutdowns at Hengli and a slight reduction in production at Sheng Hong led to a supply contraction, widening the supply-demand gap in May and June and tightening liquidity expectations [7]. 利空因素 - Polyester profit margins have been continuously compressed, which may reduce production efficiency and enthusiasm [7]. - The price of动力煤has been declining, weakening cost support [7]. - EG's profit margins have significantly improved, and its valuation has increased from a low level [7].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-14 期现：无 期权：卖出虚值看涨或熊市价差期权 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月8日电池级碳酸锂报价6.35-6.7万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.14万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.31-6.41万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.14万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心暂时维稳。根据SMM 调研，下游企业采购意愿较为薄弱，整体需求量级主要由客供及长协供应来满足。上游锂盐厂在成本亏损的压力 之下，挺价意愿表现得十分强烈。目前仅在贸易商与下游企业之间存在一定的成交情况。美国关税豁免90天，对 储能电池出口有利，中国储能电芯或许存在抢出口预期，从而带动对碳酸锂的需求量级提升。 策略 整体来看，现货成交重心下移，带动矿价下跌，整体过剩格局并未改变，当前成交仍以刚需为主。关税减免后短 期宏观情绪或好转，或盘面出现反弹，可逢高卖出套保。 单边：逢高卖出套保 跨期：无 矿价及锂盐价格重心下移，碳酸锂盘面偏弱运行 市场分析 2025年5月13日，碳酸锂主力合约2505开于64200元/吨，收于63220元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.82%。当 日成交量为217033手，持 ...

镍&不锈钢日报 管城瀚 2025-05-13 17:18:36 镍&不锈钢：关注关税和菲律宾后续走势，近期情绪大于实际 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.9-12.9 | 32.75% | 66.9% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | 理 | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50 ...

| | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5700-6000 | 10.69% | 6.9% | | 硅锰 | 5500-6000 | 12.73% | 27.9% | source： 南华研究 铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/5/13 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | ...

分析师：何慧 【策略】 单边策略：目前主力09合约关注20日均线压制情况，短期1380成为多空分水岭，盘面围绕联碱成本在1230-1320运行。 套利策略：目前纯碱9-1价差在-10附近，几乎平水，考虑到夏季季节性检修，以及年底天然碱新增产能投产计划，9-1正套参与。 FG-SA09合约价差为-270左右，4月中旬玻璃-纯碱价差走弱，目前仍未止跌迹象，在-320至-360之间再尝试参与多玻璃空纯碱操作。 套保策略：目前碱厂库存绝对高位，上游企业可依据自身库存情况关注09合约在盘面大幅升水现货时，在1400-1450附近卖出套保 机会。下游玻璃企业刚需补库，可在盘面低于现货交割成本时买入套保。 【风险】检修超预期（上行风险）、煤炭及相关燃料走强（上行风险）、重回累库（下行风险）、宏观政策不及预期（下行风险） 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货研究院 时间：2025.04.30 【观点】4月在中美关税政策冲击下，商品市场弱势运行，叠加碱厂检修装置复产，纯碱期现价格联动下行。供应方面，碱厂5月检 修计划增多，市场存供应缩 ...

油料产业风险管理日报 2025/04/30 周昱宇（投资咨询证号：Z0019884） 靳晚冬（期货从业证号：F03118199） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 20.7% | 68.5% | | 菜粕：2450-2750 | 0.3107 | 0.819 | source： 南华研究 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M250 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-34 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 9 ...

Core Insights - The asphalt futures business spans the entire industry chain, including upstream production, midstream trading, and downstream applications, with significant roles played by refineries, traders, and large enterprises [1] - The asphalt market is currently facing weak supply and demand, leading to price fluctuations and financial pressures on refineries and traders [3] - A case study of Company C illustrates effective risk management through basis trading and spot distribution, enhancing trade profits while alleviating financial strain [2][4] Industry Overview - Upstream production primarily involves refineries dealing with crude oil and fuel oil, employing a "lock raw materials and sell forward" strategy [1] - Midstream trading sees traders and futures merchants engaging in arbitrage and hedging, while downstream procurement is dominated by large enterprises using buy hedging strategies [1] - The asphalt futures market is crucial for price risk hedging and speculative opportunities, with increasing sensitivity of the spot market to financial market dynamics [1] Market Dynamics - Asphalt prices are influenced by various factors, including crude oil price movements, supply-demand conditions, and seasonal demand variations [1] - The current market scenario shows a significant reliance on Shandong's local refineries, which account for approximately 60% of the national asphalt supply [2] Company C's Strategy - Company C, a trading entity, utilized a basis trading model in collaboration with a futures company's risk management subsidiary to mitigate financial and inventory pressures [2][4] - In January 2024, the risk management subsidiary locked in a price of 3,500 CNY/ton for 20,000 tons of asphalt, anticipating a rebound in prices despite weak demand [4] Results and Impact - From March to May 2024, the market behaved as expected, with stable spot prices and weakening futures, leading to a widening basis [5] - By the end of May, Company C successfully reduced capital occupation and transferred inventory risk while repurchasing asphalt at a lower market price [5] - This case exemplifies the diverse and effective services that futures can provide to the real economy, benefiting both buyers and sellers in the asphalt industry [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant demand for cold-rolled steel strips (轧硬) in the Boxin region, known as the "hometown of metal sheets in China," where many galvanized and color-coated processing plants are located, primarily focusing on exports [1] - A company, referred to as Company A, operates as a trader of cold-rolled steel strips in Boxin, with a monthly sales volume of 200,000 to 250,000 tons, and maintains a high level of inventory to serve local processing enterprises [2] - Due to market conditions and pricing factors, local processing enterprises have reduced their agreements with steel mills, leading to increased reliance on traders like Company A for procurement [1][2] Group 2 - Company A engaged in a hedging operation using the HC2505 contract to manage its inventory risk, with an initial basis of -160 yuan/ton, as the market faced pressures from various external factors, including U.S. tariff policies [3] - Following the Spring Festival, the demand for cold-rolled steel strips increased, leading to a strong performance in spot prices, while futures prices remained weak due to external influences, resulting in a widening basis to 30 yuan/ton [3] - Company A decided to close its hedging position after analyzing the market, believing that the basis would likely narrow in the future, while also purchasing out-of-the-money put options to further mitigate potential price declines [3] Group 3 - The hedging strategy allowed Company A to avoid risks associated with inventory devaluation after the Spring Festival, resulting in additional profits of several million yuan due to the basis expansion [4] - By investing a small amount in out-of-the-money put options, Company A effectively managed the risk of further price declines without increasing its overall risk exposure [4]