Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price - downward cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price decline - ore price loosening - lithium salt price decline again". When the futures rebound, there is a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price hike", but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals and the price will fall again [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: the futures price will rise in a volatile manner at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected demand in the off - season; the futures price will decline in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter due to the end of technical reforms and increased production [3]. - Strategy recommendations: LC09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage; short LC2511 contracts at high prices; sell call options at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Price and Strategy - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 23.3% [2]. - **Enterprise Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of impairment, 70% of the inventory can be hedged by short - selling LC2509 lithium carbonate futures, 30% by selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans, they can buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs [2]. Market Analysis - **Lithium Market Core Contradiction**: The lithium market is facing inventory pressure, slow de - stocking, and a medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance. There are two short - term price - movement logics [3]. - **Lithium Market利多因素**: Improved macro - sentiment, supply - side disruptions, and the market trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warehouse receipts will boost the futures market price [6]. - **Lithium Market利空因素**: High future lithium ore production expectations, inventory pressure on ore prices, continuous inventory accumulation of lithium ore and lithium salt, and postponed capacity clearance due to technological upgrades [5][7]. Market Data - **Futures Market Data**: - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 64,080 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day; the trading volume is 420,967 lots, down 119,468 lots or 22.11%; the open interest is 334,057 lots, up 8,483 lots or 2.61% [9]. - The closing price of the LC2511 contract is 63,720 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan or 0.25%; the trading volume is 36,817 lots, down 10,160 lots or 21.63%; the open interest is 98,399 lots, up 4,871 lots or 5.21% [9]. - **Lithium Ore Market Data**: The prices of various types of lithium ore, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, have increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,315 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 3.14% [18]. - **Lithium Salt Market Data**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate have increased, while the prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium hydroxide have decreased slightly. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan or 0.75% [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spread Data**: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remains unchanged; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate has decreased; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea and the domestic market has increased [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 22,880, a decrease of 300 from the previous day [36]. Downstream Market Data - The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,660 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 0.36% [33].

2025/07/03 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1100 | 32.77% | 85.0% | | 纯碱 | 1000-1250 | 20.98% | 19.8% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 | 库存 | 产成品库存偏高， | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空玻璃期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成 本 | FG250 9 | 卖出 | 50% | 1050 | | 璃 | 管理 ...

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年07月02日 夏莹莹（投资咨询证书：Z0016569) 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703) 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 震荡区间59000-62000 | 21.4% | 26.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存 | 为防止库存减值，可以根据库存情况，做空碳酸锂 期货来锁定成品利润 | LC2509 | 卖出 | 70% | | 管理 | 有减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 30% | | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购 管理 | 未来有采购计划 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the PVC futures market is showing strength, with the main contract trading at 4924.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.76% increase [1] - PVC powder exports have been a bright spot in demand, with cumulative exports from January to May 2025 reaching 1.6985 million tons, a 56.07% increase compared to 1.0883 million tons during the same period last year [2] - As of the end of June, the domestic PVC downstream comprehensive operating rate is at 42.78%, down 3.37 percentage points from early June and down 10.54 percentage points year-on-year, marking the lowest point since mid-March 2025 [2] Group 2 - On the supply side, there has been a slight increase in domestic PVC maintenance this week, with a planned maintenance by Henan Yuhang, leading to a slight decrease in supply; however, overall supply remains high with significant new production plans expected in the future [3] - Demand continues to weaken as the domestic and international markets enter a demand off-season, with some domestic downstream operations affected by the rainy season [3] - The cost side is supported by reduced ethylene imports, while the situation in Inner Mongolia regarding electricity restrictions for calcium carbide needs to be monitored, which is expected to support PVC bottom prices [3] Group 3 - The operational strategy suggests a fluctuating market, with basic fundamentals still under pressure as the downstream enters the off-season; however, the gradual changes in basis and monthly spread are narrowing the space for arbitrage and hedging [4] - The ongoing delay of India's BIS certification is expected to contribute to the continued fluctuation of PVC prices [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 市场分析 2025年6月30日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于63460元/吨，收于62260元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.77%。当 日成交量为389727手，持仓量为330824手，较前一交易日减少10624手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳960 元/吨。所有合约总持仓596987手，较前一交易日减少18035手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日降低296883手，成 交量494672，整体投机度为0.83。当日碳酸锂仓单22628手，较上个交易日增加630手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月30日电池级碳酸锂报价6.05-6.21万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.015万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.92-6.02万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.015万元/吨。根据SMM调研，当前市场呈现\"上游挺价、 下游压价\"的博弈格局：冶炼厂报价维持高位，但下游正极材料厂采购仍以刚需为主，市场整体成交清淡。不过部 分刚性需求订单仍支撑价格小幅上行，受期货盘面影响，现货也有所走强，但基本面并未改善。 策略 反弹后套保意愿较高，碳酸锂盘面走弱 跨品种：无 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the innovative risk management approach adopted by downstream enterprises in the Xinjiang cotton industry through structured OTC options, specifically the cumulative purchase options used by processing company X to manage procurement costs effectively in a volatile market [1][15]. Industry Overview - The cotton industry faces structural challenges, with cotton being a core raw material for the textile industry. Price fluctuations significantly impact garment manufacturing, foreign trade exports, and agricultural planting. Recent geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, and competition from alternative fibers have exacerbated market volatility, putting pressure on the stability of enterprises, particularly those in Xinjiang, which accounts for over 90% of China's cotton production [2][3]. - In 2024, domestic cotton prices exhibited notable "double high and double low" fluctuations, with prices for Xinjiang 3128B cotton ranging from 15,200 to 16,800 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase in price volatility of 1,600 yuan/ton [2]. - The industry is constrained by three major pressures: high costs, high inventory, and high import dependence, alongside two weaknesses: weak demand and weak profits. The cost of planting has risen due to a 12% increase in fertilizer and pesticide prices, with average costs exceeding 2,500 yuan per mu. Processing costs have also increased by 8% to 10% due to high energy prices [2][3][4][5]. Company Case Study - Company X, a processing enterprise in Xinjiang, relies on high-quality long-staple cotton for its core products. The company faces significant profit pressure due to rigid sales prices and elastic raw material costs, leading to gross margin fluctuations of 25% to 40% [6]. - To address procurement risks during price surges, X implemented a cumulative call option strategy, allowing for flexible and low-capital risk management. The option was designed to lock in procurement costs effectively [8][11]. - The cumulative call option was executed with an entry price of 13,490 yuan/ton and a daily contract volume of 30 tons over a 19-day observation period. The mechanism allowed for double contract volume if the settlement price fell below the trigger price [8][10]. Implementation and Results - Throughout the observation period, X closely monitored daily futures prices and flexibly triggered contract executions, ultimately securing procurement rights at a cost of 13,340 yuan/ton for 270 tons of CF505 futures contracts [11][12]. - The company successfully rolled over and adjusted its cumulative call option strategy, achieving an average procurement cost of 13,340 yuan/ton for a total of 2,520 tons, effectively smoothing the procurement cost curve [12][13]. - This case illustrates the effectiveness of customized OTC options in addressing the risk management challenges faced by the Xinjiang cotton industry, enhancing the ability of enterprises to hedge against market risks and stabilize operational profits [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 07 main contract reduced its position by 4,803 lots today, closing at 819, up 0.37%. The 09 contract increased its position by 967 lots, closing at 791, down 0.38%. The spread between the 7 - 9 contracts reached a new high of 28 [3]. - With one trading day left for the 07 contract, it has significantly reduced its position, but the remaining position of 10,984 lots is still large. There is a possibility of significant position - reduction on Monday, which may cause large fluctuations in the market [3]. - The hedging profit window on the market is still open, while there is no profit for long - position holders to take delivery. Fundamentally, there are no obvious changes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and its historical percentile over the past 3 years is 67.4% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 800 - 820 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order conditions, for short - position exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 750 - 800 [2]. Core Contradictions - The 07 main contract reduced its position by 4,803 lots today, closing at 819, up 0.37%. The 09 contract increased its position by 967 lots, closing at 791, down 0.38%. The 7 - 9 spread reached a new high of 28. With one trading day left, the 07 contract has significantly reduced its position, but the remaining position is still large. There is a risk of large market fluctuations due to significant position - reduction on Monday [3]. Spot and Basis - Multiple types of log spot prices, basis, and related data are provided, including different specifications, ports, and their corresponding prices, price changes, and basis calculations [4][7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Importers have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; macro - policies are taking effect; the overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker than expected and sales are slow; subsequent shipping volumes are expected to pick up [6]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 1.69 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [7]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the port inventory in China was 3.35 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The port inventory in Shandong was 1.99 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1.109845 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 23,277 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 34.2% [7]. - **Demand**: As of June 20, 2025, the average daily log outbound volume from ports was 63,600 m³, a week - on - week increase of 3,800 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 34,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 33.3%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 22,600 m³, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 29.1% [7]. - **Profit**: As of June 27, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 46 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/m³. The spruce import profit was - 77 yuan/m³, with no week - on - week change [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market participants are speculating on the peak time of freight rates, with attention on the quotes for the second half of July to be released next week [1] - The supply and demand in the US route have both increased, with supply recovering rapidly and freight rates in the East and West US dropping from their highs [2] - There is a possibility that the freight rates in the first half of July have already reached their peak, and the August contract is in a game over the specific peak - time [5] - The strategy suggests a sideways movement for the main contract and a long - December, short - October arbitrage [8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of June 27, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 90,944 lots, and the daily trading volume was 62,657 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1317.40, 1160.20, 1885.90, 1759.90, 1325.60, and 1489.10 respectively [7] - The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points, and ship delays are expected to drag down the SCFIS on June 30 [4] 2. Spot Price - For the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, different alliances have different price quotes. For example, Maersk's price in the second week of July decreased compared to the previous period, and some alliances' prices for the second half of July are higher than the first half [1] - For the Shanghai - US East and West routes, the freight rates have dropped significantly. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in the first half of July decreased from 4296/5360 in the first half of June to 1478/2110, and the Shanghai - New York price decreased from 6410 dollars/FEU to 4100 dollars/FEU [2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In July, the monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base port route is 273,800 TEU, and in August, it is 269,900 TEU. There are 8 blank sailings in July [3] - As of June 20, 2025, 128 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.018 million TEU. Among them, 38 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 570,100 TEU and 6 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [7] 4. Supply Chain - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the oil price and shipping situation. The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed has been basically eliminated, with a relatively small direct impact on container transportation [2][3] 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand for the China - US route has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and carriers are actively restoring capacity [2] - The relationship between the EU's industrial production index, import from China, consumer confidence index, retail sales, and China's export to the EU may affect the shipping demand [73 - 89]

黑色金属数据日报 | 2025/06/19 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2601 | < 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6月18日 | 2978. 00 | 3100.00 | 670. 50 | 1403.00 | 815. 50 | | | 涨跌值 | 1.00 | 10.00 | 0. 00 | 15.00 | 5.00 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.03 7 | 0. 32 | 0.00 | 1.08 | 0.62 | | | 近月合约收盘价 (主力合约元/吨) | R ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 仓单小幅去化，关注近月合约交割情况 市场分析 2025年6月17日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于59720元/吨，收于59860元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价上涨0.2%。当 日成交量为181606手，持仓量为307335手，较前一交易日增加6913手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳590 元/吨。所有合约总持仓612829手，较前一交易日减少2770手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少92035手，成交 量减少，整体投机度为0.44 。当日碳酸锂仓单31713手，较上个交易日减少330手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月17日电池级碳酸锂报价5.99-6.1万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.835-5.935万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨。 库存方面：根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为13.35 万吨，其中冶炼厂库存为5.77 万吨，下游库存为4.07 万吨， 其他库存为3.52 万吨。 碳酸锂总体供需扔偏过剩，但近期仓单持续降低，需关注07合约仓单注销后下游接仓单意愿，短期或有一定博弈。 策略 ...