1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market recovered as the stock index rose during the week, with continuous structural rotation. The trading enthusiasm in the growth direction remained high, and the power equipment and electronics sectors were actively traded. The valuation of medium - and high - priced individual bonds was significantly compressed, some negative - premium bonds showed prominent elasticity, and the implied volatility fluctuated at a high level [2][7]. - In Q3, the overall scale of "fixed - income +" funds increased, but the convertible bond allocation ratio decreased, which may reflect investors' periodic considerations of the cost - effectiveness and valuation of convertible bonds [2][7]. - The supply in the primary market advanced steadily, and frequent clause events were still important factors disturbing the short - term trading rhythm. Allocation should take into account both the logic of the underlying stocks and the cost - effectiveness of valuation [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025Q3 "Fixed - income +" Funds and Their Convertible Bond Holdings Changes - Mixed - bond secondary funds became an important increment of "fixed - income +" funds. In the first three quarters of 2025, the share of "fixed - income +" funds achieved year - on - year positive growth, with a 32% increase in Q3. In Q3 2025, the total scale of mixed - bond secondary funds accounted for 51.7% of "fixed - income +" funds, a year - on - year increase of 14.5 pct [18]. - The issuance of "fixed - income +" funds recovered this year, but the share decreased slightly. The number of newly issued "fixed - income +" funds in the first 10 months increased by 9.8% year - on - year, while the total share decreased by 10.5% year - on - year [18]. - The overall convertible bond holdings of "fixed - income +" funds declined slightly, with the most significant decline in mixed - bond secondary funds. This may be affected by the strong performance of the equity market and the relatively high valuation and shrinking scale of the convertible bond market. In Q3 2025, the median ratio of convertible bond holdings to net assets of mixed - bond secondary funds decreased the most [21][26]. Market Theme Weekly Review - During the week (October 26 - November 1, 2025), the energy storage theme in the equity market was strong, while the real estate and finance sectors were weak. The lithium - battery electrolyte index, lithium hexafluorophosphate index, and power battery index led the gains [28]. Market Weekly Tracking Main Stock Indexes Strengthened with Reduced Volume, and Technology Growth Sectors Attracted More Attention - The main A - share stock indexes strengthened slightly during the week. The Shenzhen Component Index performed well among the three major indexes, and the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index underperformed [30]. - The net outflow of main funds expanded, and the trading volume recovered moderately, reflecting a periodic repair of risk appetite. The cycle and technology growth sectors were dominant, with active trading in the power equipment and electronics sectors, especially the energy storage theme. The real estate and communication sectors were under pressure, and the crowding degree among sectors was differentiated [10]. Convertible Bond Market Strengthened Following the Equity Market, and Small - cap Convertible Bonds Were More Elastic - The convertible bond market strengthened following the equity market. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose, and large - cap convertible bonds outperformed small - and medium - cap ones [42]. - The valuation structure of convertible bonds was slightly differentiated, with a larger compression of medium - and high - priced varieties. The implied volatility remained high but declined, and the median market price continued to oscillate upward, indicating a marginal repair of market confidence [10]. - At the industry level, the cycle and technology growth directions were relatively active, with trading concentrated in the power equipment and electronics sectors. Individual bonds generally strengthened, and some negative - premium bonds showed prominent elasticity [10]. Convertible Bond Issuance and Clause Tracking Primary Market Pre - issuance Situation during the Week - Two new convertible bonds were listed, and 26 companies updated their issuance plans. The total scale of existing projects at the exchange acceptance stage and later was 68.99 billion yuan [10][64][65]. Summary of Downgrade - related Announcements during the Week - Ten convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downgrade, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 3.3; 11 convertible bonds announced not to downgrade, with a market - value - weighted average PB of 2.6; and two convertible bonds proposed a downgrade [73]. Summary of Redemption - related Announcements during the Week - One convertible bond announced that it was expected to trigger redemption; 11 convertible bonds announced not to redeem in advance; and one convertible bond announced an early redemption [77].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a gradual upward trend, with a significant increase in the number of new investor accounts, indicating a maturing market environment [1][6]. Summary by Sections New Account Openings - In October 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) recorded 2.3099 million new A-share accounts, a decrease of 21.36% from September's 2.9372 million accounts [3][5]. - The total number of new A-share accounts for the first ten months of 2025 reached 22.4588 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.57% compared to 20.3115 million in the same period last year [6][10]. - The cumulative total of A-share accounts reached 39.24515 million by the end of October 2025 [6][7]. Institutional Investors - The number of institutional investors has been steadily increasing, with a total of 1.2366 million institutional accounts by the end of October 2025 [7][8]. - In the first ten months of 2025, there were 83,800 new institutional accounts opened, reflecting growing confidence among professional investors in the A-share market [8][10]. - The increase in institutional accounts is seen as a sign of market maturity and is expected to enhance market pricing efficiency and reduce irrational volatility [1][8]. Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The A-share market has shown structural trends, with significant sector performance disparities; for instance, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.42% year-to-date, while the ChiNext Index surged by 47.84% [10][11]. - The influx of new investors is attributed to diverse sources of capital, including financing funds, foreign investments, and various institutional funds [10][11]. - High-net-worth individuals are increasingly turning to equity markets, indicating a shift in investment behavior towards a more rational approach [11][12]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may experience a style rebalancing in November, with potential fluctuations as investors adjust their portfolios ahead of the spring market [12]. - The market is expected to navigate through a phase of consolidation, which could relieve pressure on the funding environment while maintaining a long-term growth trajectory [12].

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4000-point mark for the third time in history, reaching a new high of 4025.70 points on October 30, 2023 [3] - The market sentiment is positive, as evidenced by the record high margin trading balance of 2.48 trillion yuan, with financing balance reaching 2.46 trillion yuan [3] - Over the past six months, equity-based wealth management products have performed well, with an average net value growth rate of 23.65%, and 36 products recording positive returns [5] Market Performance - The A-share indices have shown an upward trend over the last six months, with the ChiNext Index leading with a growth rate exceeding 67% [3] - Among the wealth management products, 22 out of 36 recorded net value growth rates above 20%, while some products had single-digit growth rates [5] - Notable performers include Everbright Wealth Management's "Sunshine Red New Energy Theme A" and Huaxia Wealth Management's "Tiangong Day Open Wealth Management Product No. 4 (New Energy Storage Index)" with growth rates of 69.68% and 52.74% respectively [5] Volatility and Future Outlook - Products with strong industry attributes also exhibited higher volatility, with annualized volatility rates for top-performing products reaching 28.07% and 26.69% [6] - Everbright Wealth Management's "Sunshine Red Enhanced 500 Index C" achieved a net value growth rate of 32.5% and is positioned for an index enhancement strategy [6] - Future market expectations indicate a potential for increased volatility in the fourth quarter, with a slow bull market supported by ample liquidity [6]

Core Insights - The public fund issuance showed signs of recovery in the first week of November, with a total of 35 public products launched, marking a 29.63% increase from the previous week [1][2] - The average subscription days for the new funds decreased to 19 days, indicating enhanced market activity [1] Fund Issuance Overview - A total of 35 new public funds were issued, with equity funds (including stock and mixed funds) being the primary contributors, accounting for over 70% of the total issuance [2][3] - The breakdown of fund types shows that stock funds comprised 16 of the new issues, representing 45.71% of the total, with passive index funds leading at 13 issues (37.14%) [3][4] Fund Type Distribution - The issuance of mixed funds reached 10, making up 28.57% of the total, with the core being the equity-mixed funds [3] - Bond funds maintained a stable issuance with 4 mixed bond funds, accounting for 11.43% of the total [4] - FOF products also performed well, with 5 new issues, matching the highest weekly issuance for the year [4] Institutional Participation - The 35 new funds were launched by 25 different public fund institutions, with 18 institutions issuing one fund each and 7 institutions issuing two or more [4] - E Fund led the issuance with 4 new funds, primarily in passive index stock funds, followed by Huatai-PineBridge with 3 new funds [4]

Core Insights - The public fund issuance has shown signs of recovery, with 35 new public products launched in the week from November 3 to November 9, marking a 29.63% increase from the previous week and the highest in three weeks [1] - The average subscription period for the new funds has decreased to 19 days, indicating improved market supply dynamics [1] Fund Issuance by Type - Equity funds, including stock and mixed funds, dominated the issuance with 26 products, accounting for over 70% of the total new funds, reflecting a strong focus from fund companies on the equity market [2][3] - Specifically, stock funds saw robust issuance with 16 products, representing 45.71% of the total, where passive index funds led with 13 products (37.14%) due to their clear tracking direction and lower management fees [3] - Mixed funds accounted for 10 products (28.57%), with the flexible allocation of equity mixed funds allowing fund managers to adjust stock and bond ratios based on market conditions [3] FOF and Bond Fund Performance - FOF products performed well with 5 new issuances, matching the highest weekly issuance for the year, where 4 were bond-focused and 1 was equity-focused [3] - Bond fund issuance remained stable with 4 mixed bond secondary funds, making up 11.43% of the total [4] - The improvement in market conditions and changing investor attitudes towards public funds have contributed to the increased issuance, alongside ongoing supportive policies [4]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The bond market sentiment was generally positive last week due to factors such as the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading, loose cross - month funds, the stock market decline after the Sino - US summit, and weak PMI data. The 10 - year treasury bond yield closed at 1.80% on Friday, down 5.32bp from the previous week [1][7][8]. - The equity market rose first and then fell last week. With positive factors like Sino - US trade negotiations, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the A - share market was strong in the first half of the week, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high above 4000. However, it declined in the second half as positive news materialized and the demand for profit - taking increased. The technology hardware sector, which had a high increase previously, led the decline [1][7]. - Most convertible bond issues rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.79% for the whole week, the median price rose by 0.63%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity increased by 0.64%. The overall conversion premium rate increased by 0.10% compared with the previous week [1][8]. - Convertible bonds are still restricted by high prices, high premiums, and frequent redemptions. The overall opportunity is hard to find as the median convertible bond price remains above 130 yuan. For different types of convertible bonds, there are different challenges, such as limited capacity and return space for low - price strategies in debt - biased convertible bonds, over - anticipation of underlying stock price increases in balanced convertible bonds, and the risk of double - killing of valuation and parity in high - quality "core stocks" of non - redeemable equity - biased convertible bonds during market fluctuations [2][17]. - Given the strong bullish atmosphere in the equity market, it is difficult to make decisions on increasing or decreasing positions. The overall assets should be treated with a trading - band mindset. When selecting bonds, it is advisable to allocate evenly across industries. For balanced convertible bonds, choose those with high - volatility underlying stocks that can quickly digest the high convertible bond premiums, and for equity - biased convertible bonds, focus on low - premium targets [2][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends (2025/10/27 - 2025/10/31) Stock Market - The equity market showed a volatile trend. The Shanghai Composite Index had different daily changes: up 1.18% on Monday, down 0.22% on Tuesday, up 0.7% on Wednesday, down 0.73% on Thursday, and down 0.81% on Friday. Different sectors had varying performances each day [7]. - Most Shenwan primary industries rose last week. The top - performing industries were power equipment (4.29%), non - ferrous metals (2.56%), steel (2.55%), basic chemicals (2.50%), and comprehensive (2.26%), while communication (-3.59%), beauty care (-2.21%), banking (-2.16%), and electronics (-1.65%) performed poorly [8]. Bond Market - The bond market sentiment was good. The 10 - year treasury bond yield closed at 1.80% on Friday, down 5.32bp from the previous week, influenced by factors such as the central bank's actions, fund conditions, stock market movements, and PMI data [1][7][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.79% for the whole week, the median price rose by 0.63%, and the arithmetic average parity increased by 0.64%. The overall conversion premium rate increased by 0.10% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in different parity ranges also changed [1][8]. - In terms of industries, most convertible bond industries rose. The top - performing industries were steel (+3.04%), machinery and equipment (+2.15%), national defense and military industry (+1.75%), and automobile (+1.16%), while communication (-3.18%), beauty care (-3.17%), building materials (-0.75%), and media (-0.48%) performed poorly [11]. - At the individual bond level, Titan (solid - state battery concept), Dazhong (lithium mine), Zhenhua (chromium salt), Zhonghuan Zhuan 2 (innovative drugs), and Yunji (belt conveyor) convertible bonds led the increase, while Tongguang (optical fiber cable), Shuiyang (skin care products), Jingda (controllable nuclear fusion), Huayi (semiconductor clean room), and Wujin (stainless steel) convertible bonds led the decline [1][12]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 310.731 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 62.146 billion yuan, which was higher than the previous week [15]. Valuation Overview - As of October 31, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in different parity intervals were at different percentile levels since 2010 and 2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of those with a parity below 70 yuan was -5.3%, at the 0%/1% percentile levels since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 40.84%, and the difference between the convertible bond implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was -1.34%, both at certain percentile levels [18]. Primary Market Tracking Last Week (2025/10/27 - 2025/10/31) - Qizhong Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and Jin 25 and Funeng Convertible Bonds were listed. Qizhong Convertible Bond has a scale of 850 million yuan, Jin 25 Convertible Bond has a scale of 2 billion yuan, and Funeng Convertible Bond has a scale of 3.802 billion yuan. Each bond's underlying company has its own business characteristics, financial performance, and planned use of funds after deducting issuance fees [26][27][29]. - One company (Ruikeda) got new approval for registration, one company (Shuangle Co., Ltd.) passed the listing committee review, 13 companies' applications were accepted by the exchange, one company (Mankun Technology) passed the shareholders' meeting, and 4 companies announced board proposals [31]. Future Week (2025/11/3 - 2025/11/7) - As of the announcement on October 31, there is no convertible bond announced for issuance, and Jinlang Zhuan 02 is expected to be listed. It has a scale of 1.677 billion yuan, and its underlying company has specific business operations, financial data, and planned use of funds [30]. - Currently, there are 94 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 143.51 billion yuan. Among them, 5 have been approved for registration with a total scale of 4.15 billion yuan, and 6 have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 3.38 billion yuan [31].

Core Insights - The report predicts that the old-caliber M1 year-on-year growth will decline from 6.2% in September to approximately 3.4% by the end of the year, while M2 is expected to decrease from 8.4% in September to around 8.0% by year-end [1][10] - The analysis framework for M1 and M2 growth is based on the formula: old-caliber M1 = M2 - other currencies, where M2 is derived from various leverage factors across different sectors [4][14] M1 and M2 Growth Analysis - The report outlines five key factors influencing M2 growth: corporate leverage, household leverage, foreign exchange derivation, government leverage, and other factors, with a projected M2 year-on-year decline of 900 billion [6][20] - The anticipated decline in M1 growth is attributed to a combination of factors, including a decrease in corporate loans by 300 billion and a reduction in household deposits by 6200 billion [7][33] - Historical data indicates that changes in M1 correlate with shifts in PPI and industrial inventory levels, suggesting that M1 serves as a leading indicator for these economic metrics [2][13] Investment Themes - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of M1 and M2 in relation to asset allocation, highlighting that M1's growth is closely tied to the performance of equity markets and corporate profitability [9][33] - The analysis suggests that a stable equity market environment could lead to a shift in household deposits towards investment assets, thereby impacting M1 growth positively [34][40] Future Projections - The report forecasts that M1 growth will be approximately 2.3 trillion, with M2 growth around 25 trillion, reflecting a broader economic context where monetary policy and market conditions play crucial roles [51][53] - The anticipated government bond issuance is expected to decrease, which may further influence M2 growth dynamics in the upcoming quarters [27][30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term market is mainly volatile. Traders should pay attention to the impact of the capital market and equity market fluctuations on the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Influencing Factors - **L利多因素**: The central bank increased the volume of MLF to maintain abundant liquidity, and the loose capital market supported the bond market sentiment. The basic consensus reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations led to a phased increase in market risk appetite [2]. - **利空因素**: The strengthening of the equity market suppressed the bond market sentiment, with a significant stock - bond seesaw effect. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased, and the adjustment of spot bonds dragged down the performance of futures [2]. 3.2 Market Data - **国债到期收益率**: Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bond yields from April 2024 to August 2025 are presented [3]. - **资金利率**: Data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates (1 - day and 7 - day) and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from December 2023 to June 2025 are shown [3]. - **国债期限利差**: Data on the term spreads of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y from April 2024 to August 2025 are provided [4][5]. - **国债期货持仓**: Data on the positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from December 2015 to December 2023 are given [8]. - **国债期货成交**: Data on the trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from April 2024 to August 2025 are presented [9]. - **国债期货基差**: Data on the basis of the current - quarter contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided, with different time ranges for each [10][11][12][14]. - **国债期货跨期价差**: Data on the current - quarter minus next - quarter spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are given, with different time ranges for each [18][20]. - **跨品种价差**: Data on the TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL cross - variety spreads are provided, with different time ranges for each [21][22].

Group 1 - As of October 29, public fund reports for the third quarter have been fully disclosed, with bond funds experiencing over 500 billion units of net redemptions, marking the highest net redemption among fund types [1][2] - The total scale of bond funds at the end of the third quarter was 10.58 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 10.82 trillion yuan at the end of the second quarter [2] - Over 55% of bond funds recorded net redemptions, with more than 2,100 funds experiencing this trend, including 292 funds with net redemptions exceeding 1 billion units [2] Group 2 - Despite the overall negative performance of bond funds, certain convertible bond funds achieved significant returns, with some exceeding 20% in yield due to favorable equity market conditions [1][5] - The yield of bond funds was under pressure, with over 3,128 bond funds yielding less than 1%, and more than 1,000 funds recording negative returns [4][5] - The yield on government bonds increased, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields rising by 12 basis points, 20 basis points, 22 basis points, and 35 basis points respectively compared to the end of the second quarter [4] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the bond market is expected to be influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with the central bank's operations likely to support the market [6][7] - The current economic growth level remains weak, suggesting that long-term interest rates do not have a solid foundation for sustained and significant increases [6][7] - The bond market is anticipated to return to being driven by economic fundamentals and monetary policy after the release of pressure on the liability side [6][7]

Group 1 - As of October 29, public fund reports for the third quarter have been fully disclosed, with bond funds experiencing over 500 billion units of net redemptions, marking the highest net redemption among fund types [1][3] - The total scale of bond funds at the end of the third quarter was 10.58 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 10.82 trillion yuan at the end of the second quarter [3] - Over 2,100 bond funds recorded net redemptions in the third quarter, accounting for nearly 55% of the total, with 292 funds having net redemptions exceeding 1 billion units [3] Group 2 - The overall yield of bond funds was suppressed in the third quarter, with many funds showing yields below 1%, and over 1,000 funds recording negative returns [6][7] - The yield on government bonds increased, with the one-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year government bond yields rising by 12 basis points, 20 basis points, 22 basis points, and 35 basis points respectively compared to the end of the second quarter [6] - Convertible bond funds performed well, with some achieving returns exceeding 20%, benefiting from a strong equity market [7] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the bond market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with expectations of a supportive central bank and reduced selling pressure due to lower fund durations [9][10] - The current rise in long-term interest rates is seen as a normal response to changes in fundamental expectations, but a significant and sustained increase is not anticipated due to weak economic growth [9] - The bond market is expected to return to being driven by economic fundamentals and monetary policy after the release of pressure on the liability side [10]