Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [52] Core Insights - The brokerage sector index experienced a range-bound fluctuation in October 2025, with a decline of 0.73%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.73 percentage points [4][7] - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.510 and 1.580 times, closing at 1.510 times at the end of October [11] - The overall operating performance of listed brokerages is expected to decline in November 2025, with a forecasted drop to mid-low levels for the year [47][48] Summary by Sections 1. October 2025 Brokerage Sector Review - The brokerage index maintained a range-bound fluctuation with a significant reduction in volatility, closing down 0.73% for the month [4][7] - A total of 42 listed brokerages saw 17 increase in stock prices, with notable gains from Dongxing Securities (10.08%) and Changjiang Securities (6.27%) [8] - The average P/B ratio for the sector was 1.510 times, indicating a slight decrease from previous months [11] 2. Key Market Factors Affecting October 2025 Performance - Increased volatility in equity markets and a rebound in fixed income markets led to a decline in proprietary trading performance [6] - The average daily trading volume in October was 21,640 billion, down 10.5% month-on-month [25] - The margin financing balance reached a historical high of 24,864 billion, reflecting a stable outlook among investors [32] 3. November 2025 Performance Outlook - Proprietary trading is expected to face pressure due to a comprehensive market correction, with a forecasted decline in monthly investment returns [40][43] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to see a slight recovery in brokerage business due to an increase in trading days, despite a decrease in average daily trading volume [44] - The investment banking sector is expected to remain stable, with equity financing slightly declining and debt financing rebounding [46] 4. Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector index has shown signs of further downward adjustment, with a significant gap from the average valuation since 2016 [48] - It is recommended to focus on leading brokerages with strong wealth management capabilities and those with valuations significantly below the sector average [50]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the equity market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, tempered expectations for a December Fed rate cut, and profit-taking by institutions, have led to a high-level oscillation in major stock indices. However, the convertible bond market has shown resilience, with significant increases in various convertible bond indices since November [1][2]. Group 1: Convertible Bonds Characteristics - Convertible bonds, or "转债," are a type of bond that can be converted into a company's stock at a predetermined price within a specified timeframe, distinguishing them from regular credit bonds due to their conversion rights [1][2]. - Key features of convertible bonds include: they are still bonds requiring regular principal and interest payments; they can be converted into stocks during the conversion period; their prices are significantly influenced by the underlying stock prices; and they often include redemption, repurchase, and downward adjustment clauses, making their pricing more complex [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The core logic supporting the current equity market bull run remains unchanged, driven by a low-interest-rate environment and domestic policy support, suggesting a sustained bullish trend in the domestic equity market [2][3]. - The pure bond market is experiencing limited disturbances due to the central bank's supportive monetary policy and recent resumption of government bond trading, which keeps liquidity conditions favorable and prevents significant increases in pure bond yields [3]. - The supply-demand dynamics in the convertible bond market are expected to remain tight, with limited issuance of new convertible bonds and strong demand driven by the belief in a slow bull market for equities, indicating that convertible bonds may outperform pure bonds [3].

证 券 研 究 报 告 敢突破，赢非凡 2026年可转债市场展望 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 王明路 A0230525060003 徐亚 A0230524060002 2025.11.20 2026年转债市场有确定性+弹性空间，仓位分歧下降，更加需要关注个券超额 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 2025年回顾：三种定价思维的变化。2025年6月之前，可转债的定价思维依旧是周期思维，转债是典型的"上有顶下 有底"的资产，全市场的中位数价格处在130元之下，具有配置价值。2025年6月~9月，可转债的定价思维转变为权益 定价思维，转债的弹性被正股弹性放大；此时，不强赎的个券、上市半年内的个券一旦其正股具有较大的弹性，转债的 价格就会上行，转股溢价率也会很高。2025年10月之后，固收+市场中的负债主要流向了转债的交易盘，这与2025Q2 负债主要流向配置盘不同，与此同时，从对转债的持有规模来看，配置盘配置转债的规模远远小于交易盘，配置盘负债 规模以及负债的边际增量不及交易盘，这就意味着转债市场的定价思维，走向了负债驱动思维。整体来看，2025年全 年转债市场的定 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 17 日 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 稳而不发：透视三季度货币政策执行报告 | 唐立 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 | Tangli026575@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 王笑 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 | Wangxiao019787@gtjas.com | （正文） 1. 四季度宏观数据低迷延续 10 月各项宏观数据公布，整体数据趋势呈现除通胀外全线增速回落的趋势。CPI 微幅转正，PPI 跌幅 收窄。其余数据增速均回落。全年保"5"的目标下，政策预期 mao dian 普遍在明年两会 权益市场在美国风险偏好传导以及内需政策预期博弈下回调震荡。债市短端较为稳固，超长端随风险 偏好波动较大。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ◼ 央行三季度货币政策执行报告的核心词是"结构性"与"延续"。 ◼ 大水漫灌式降息降准难出现，数量、价格、结构多元工具精细化调控，维稳货币边际宽松。 ◼ 删除"防范资金空 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - This week, 33 new funds are set to launch, with equity funds making up two-thirds of the total offerings, reflecting a strong interest in equity investments amid market fluctuations [1][4]. Fund Launch Details - A total of 26 out of the 33 new funds will start issuing on Monday, November 17, accounting for 78.79% of the week's new funds. The average subscription period for these new funds is 21.27 days, which is longer than previous periods, likely due to recent market conditions [2][4]. - The longest subscription period is for the China Aviation Xiangtai 6-month closed fund at 89 days, while the shortest is for the浦银安盛港股通消费 and 广发上证科创板100增强策略ETF联接 at just 5 days [2]. Fund Types and Goals - Among the new funds, 22 are equity funds, representing two-thirds of the total. There are 10 index equity funds, with two tracking the CSI 500 index. The funds also include a variety of themes such as high dividend and technology growth [4][5]. - 18 of the new funds have specified fundraising targets, with five aiming for 8 billion units. The lowest target is set at 1 billion units for two specific funds [3]. Fixed Income and FOF Products - In the fixed income category, only 7 new bond funds are being launched, indicating a decline in interest for pure bond funds as equity markets recover. However, "fixed income plus" funds are gaining traction [6][7]. - Four mixed-asset FOF products are also being introduced this week, reflecting a growing investor preference for diversified investment strategies. The average return for FOFs that have been established for over six months is 14.29% [8][9].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may initiate a "fiscal + monetary" dual easing mode, which is expected to enhance market liquidity [1] - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, successfully surpassing the 4000-point mark, with private equity management scale and financing balance continuously increasing [1] - In October, the newly established equity public funds decreased to 54.823 billion shares, down 42.384 billion shares from the previous month, marking a significant drop [1] Group 2 - The scale of private securities funds reached 5.97 trillion yuan in September, showing an increase compared to August [2] - The average position of private equity long positions rose to 66.22% in September, up 2.40 percentage points from August, indicating a higher investment level [2] - The monthly average trading volume of northbound funds decreased to 258.308 billion yuan in October, down 16.80% from the previous month [2] Group 3 - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed signs of cooling in October, with institutional accounts increasing by 10.48% year-on-year, while individual accounts dropped by 66.34% [3] - Insurance companies' premium income growth has weakened, with a net increase of 261.914 billion yuan in equity assets held by property and life insurance by Q2 2025 [3] - The number of issued wealth management products decreased by 27.98% in October, indicating a decline in market activity [3] Group 4 - In October, the net reduction in industrial capital narrowed to 30.529 billion yuan, with a daily average net reduction of 1.796 billion yuan [4] - The trading pulse of the three main funding flow indicators significantly decreased, indicating a cooling in market trading activity [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - profit - taking behavior of convertible bonds has eased, but under the current high absolute price and high valuation, the volatility has intensified and the bond nature has weakened. November may be the last wave of adding positions from the perspective of institutional behavior. The current high - valuation situation is expected to remain unchanged [5][8]. - The view on the future of convertible bonds is neutral. It is difficult for convertible bond valuations to have a logic of continuous strengthening. It is likely to fluctuate around the current point. The key to the subsequent trend lies in equities. Investors should appropriately lower the return expectations of convertible bonds, cash out and switch in a timely manner, and low - position institutions can actively allocate on dips. The trading opportunities of convertible bonds are greater than the trend opportunities [5][8]. - Despite the overseas capital market turmoil, the domestic market has slightly recovered this week, hovering around 4000 points, indicating sufficient market confidence. Some over - valued sectors have corrected in the short term, and the weight sectors have temporarily attracted attention. The technology - led slow - bull market remains unchanged, and the subsequent equity trend is still bullish [5][8]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: Double - Low Performance Stands Out, Style Slightly Switches - The pre - profit - taking behavior of convertible bonds has eased, but with high absolute prices and valuations, volatility has increased and bond nature has weakened. November may be the last chance for institutional position - adding. The high - valuation situation is expected to remain. The view on convertible bonds is neutral, with the key to subsequent trends in equities. Investors should adjust expectations, cash out and switch, and low - position institutions can allocate on dips. The domestic market has recovered slightly, and the technology - led slow - bull market remains [8]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Index Approaches Previous High, Valuation Slightly Rises 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Indexes Close Higher, Trading Volume Declines - This week, most equity indexes closed slightly higher. The Shanghai Composite Index led the gains with a 1.08% increase, while the North - Bound 50 Index fell 3.79%. In terms of industries, power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the rise, while beauty care, computer, and pharmaceutical biology led the decline. The average daily trading volume decreased by 3108.43 billion yuan to 2.01 trillion yuan. The top - ten rising convertible bonds last week were Zhongneng, Zhenhua, etc., and some convertible bonds were more active in trading [11]. 2.2 Trading Volume Continues to Increase, Double - Low and Large - Cap High - Rating Convertible Bonds Perform Well - This week, convertible bonds performed well, following the rise of equities. The average daily trading volume slightly increased to 68.526 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.86%, the parity center rose 1.0% to 114.4 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center remained flat at 18.7%. In terms of style, double - low and large - cap high - rating convertible bonds performed well, while high - price and small convertible bonds performed weakly [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market recovered as the stock index rose during the week, with continuous structural rotation. The trading enthusiasm in the growth direction remained high, and the power equipment and electronics sectors were actively traded. The valuation of medium - and high - priced individual bonds was significantly compressed, some negative - premium bonds showed prominent elasticity, and the implied volatility fluctuated at a high level [2][7]. - In Q3, the overall scale of "fixed - income +" funds increased, but the convertible bond allocation ratio decreased, which may reflect investors' periodic considerations of the cost - effectiveness and valuation of convertible bonds [2][7]. - The supply in the primary market advanced steadily, and frequent clause events were still important factors disturbing the short - term trading rhythm. Allocation should take into account both the logic of the underlying stocks and the cost - effectiveness of valuation [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025Q3 "Fixed - income +" Funds and Their Convertible Bond Holdings Changes - Mixed - bond secondary funds became an important increment of "fixed - income +" funds. In the first three quarters of 2025, the share of "fixed - income +" funds achieved year - on - year positive growth, with a 32% increase in Q3. In Q3 2025, the total scale of mixed - bond secondary funds accounted for 51.7% of "fixed - income +" funds, a year - on - year increase of 14.5 pct [18]. - The issuance of "fixed - income +" funds recovered this year, but the share decreased slightly. The number of newly issued "fixed - income +" funds in the first 10 months increased by 9.8% year - on - year, while the total share decreased by 10.5% year - on - year [18]. - The overall convertible bond holdings of "fixed - income +" funds declined slightly, with the most significant decline in mixed - bond secondary funds. This may be affected by the strong performance of the equity market and the relatively high valuation and shrinking scale of the convertible bond market. In Q3 2025, the median ratio of convertible bond holdings to net assets of mixed - bond secondary funds decreased the most [21][26]. Market Theme Weekly Review - During the week (October 26 - November 1, 2025), the energy storage theme in the equity market was strong, while the real estate and finance sectors were weak. The lithium - battery electrolyte index, lithium hexafluorophosphate index, and power battery index led the gains [28]. Market Weekly Tracking Main Stock Indexes Strengthened with Reduced Volume, and Technology Growth Sectors Attracted More Attention - The main A - share stock indexes strengthened slightly during the week. The Shenzhen Component Index performed well among the three major indexes, and the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index underperformed [30]. - The net outflow of main funds expanded, and the trading volume recovered moderately, reflecting a periodic repair of risk appetite. The cycle and technology growth sectors were dominant, with active trading in the power equipment and electronics sectors, especially the energy storage theme. The real estate and communication sectors were under pressure, and the crowding degree among sectors was differentiated [10]. Convertible Bond Market Strengthened Following the Equity Market, and Small - cap Convertible Bonds Were More Elastic - The convertible bond market strengthened following the equity market. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose, and large - cap convertible bonds outperformed small - and medium - cap ones [42]. - The valuation structure of convertible bonds was slightly differentiated, with a larger compression of medium - and high - priced varieties. The implied volatility remained high but declined, and the median market price continued to oscillate upward, indicating a marginal repair of market confidence [10]. - At the industry level, the cycle and technology growth directions were relatively active, with trading concentrated in the power equipment and electronics sectors. Individual bonds generally strengthened, and some negative - premium bonds showed prominent elasticity [10]. Convertible Bond Issuance and Clause Tracking Primary Market Pre - issuance Situation during the Week - Two new convertible bonds were listed, and 26 companies updated their issuance plans. The total scale of existing projects at the exchange acceptance stage and later was 68.99 billion yuan [10][64][65]. Summary of Downgrade - related Announcements during the Week - Ten convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downgrade, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 3.3; 11 convertible bonds announced not to downgrade, with a market - value - weighted average PB of 2.6; and two convertible bonds proposed a downgrade [73]. Summary of Redemption - related Announcements during the Week - One convertible bond announced that it was expected to trigger redemption; 11 convertible bonds announced not to redeem in advance; and one convertible bond announced an early redemption [77].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a gradual upward trend, with a significant increase in the number of new investor accounts, indicating a maturing market environment [1][6]. Summary by Sections New Account Openings - In October 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) recorded 2.3099 million new A-share accounts, a decrease of 21.36% from September's 2.9372 million accounts [3][5]. - The total number of new A-share accounts for the first ten months of 2025 reached 22.4588 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.57% compared to 20.3115 million in the same period last year [6][10]. - The cumulative total of A-share accounts reached 39.24515 million by the end of October 2025 [6][7]. Institutional Investors - The number of institutional investors has been steadily increasing, with a total of 1.2366 million institutional accounts by the end of October 2025 [7][8]. - In the first ten months of 2025, there were 83,800 new institutional accounts opened, reflecting growing confidence among professional investors in the A-share market [8][10]. - The increase in institutional accounts is seen as a sign of market maturity and is expected to enhance market pricing efficiency and reduce irrational volatility [1][8]. Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The A-share market has shown structural trends, with significant sector performance disparities; for instance, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.42% year-to-date, while the ChiNext Index surged by 47.84% [10][11]. - The influx of new investors is attributed to diverse sources of capital, including financing funds, foreign investments, and various institutional funds [10][11]. - High-net-worth individuals are increasingly turning to equity markets, indicating a shift in investment behavior towards a more rational approach [11][12]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may experience a style rebalancing in November, with potential fluctuations as investors adjust their portfolios ahead of the spring market [12]. - The market is expected to navigate through a phase of consolidation, which could relieve pressure on the funding environment while maintaining a long-term growth trajectory [12].

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4000-point mark for the third time in history, reaching a new high of 4025.70 points on October 30, 2023 [3] - The market sentiment is positive, as evidenced by the record high margin trading balance of 2.48 trillion yuan, with financing balance reaching 2.46 trillion yuan [3] - Over the past six months, equity-based wealth management products have performed well, with an average net value growth rate of 23.65%, and 36 products recording positive returns [5] Market Performance - The A-share indices have shown an upward trend over the last six months, with the ChiNext Index leading with a growth rate exceeding 67% [3] - Among the wealth management products, 22 out of 36 recorded net value growth rates above 20%, while some products had single-digit growth rates [5] - Notable performers include Everbright Wealth Management's "Sunshine Red New Energy Theme A" and Huaxia Wealth Management's "Tiangong Day Open Wealth Management Product No. 4 (New Energy Storage Index)" with growth rates of 69.68% and 52.74% respectively [5] Volatility and Future Outlook - Products with strong industry attributes also exhibited higher volatility, with annualized volatility rates for top-performing products reaching 28.07% and 26.69% [6] - Everbright Wealth Management's "Sunshine Red Enhanced 500 Index C" achieved a net value growth rate of 32.5% and is positioned for an index enhancement strategy [6] - Future market expectations indicate a potential for increased volatility in the fourth quarter, with a slow bull market supported by ample liquidity [6]