Group 1: Core Insights - The central theme of the news is the emphasis on high-quality development of the marine economy, as highlighted in the recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee [1][3] - The meeting underscored the importance of various marine industries, including offshore wind power, modern deep-sea fishing, marine biomedicine, and marine tourism, aiming to foster a robust marine industry ecosystem [1][4] - By 2024, China's marine GDP reached 10.5438 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, outpacing the national GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points, accounting for 7.8% of the national GDP [1][4] Group 2: Regional Developments - Coastal provinces such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Hainan, and Fujian are accelerating their strategic layouts for marine economic development, each adopting differentiated development paths [2][7] - Guangdong province focuses on integrating traditional and new industries, emphasizing marine ranching, shipbuilding, marine renewable energy, and modern shipping [2][7] - Zhejiang aims to achieve over 220 billion yuan in marine economic project investments by 2025, with a target of 120 major projects and an investment of over 60 billion yuan [2][9] Group 3: Industry Highlights - The marine industry is identified as a key carrier for economic development, with a focus on marine renewable energy, fisheries, biomedicine, and port shipping [4][10] - The marine tourism sector remains significant, contributing 36.9% to the marine GDP, while marine transportation accounts for 18.7% [4] - The shipbuilding industry is a competitive sector for China, with a market share of 49.9% in completed shipbuilding and 67.6% in new orders globally [5][6] Group 4: Future Prospects - The meeting's signals suggest a potential acceleration in marine economic development across various regions [3][10] - Future projects like "four seas" (marine granaries, oil fields, mines, and pharmacies) and "three depths and one extreme" (deep diving, drilling, netting, and polar exploration) are expected to enhance the marine industry's overall growth [10] - The integration of AI technology with marine resources and industries is anticipated to drive significant advancements in the marine economy [10]

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 7 月 2 日星期三 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 【市场回顾】 1.期货：今日沪铜 2508 合约收于 80540 元/吨，涨幅 0.65%，沪铜指数增仓 4906 手至 60.10 万手。 2.现货：持货商积极出货，沪铜现货升水直线下降，报升水 120 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 80 元/吨。广东和天津地区受铜价走高影响，消费受冲击较为明显，持货商不愿低价出 货，分别报升水 85 元/吨，下跌 5 元/吨和报贴水 140 元/吨，下跌 20 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 由于非正式矿工设置的路障，秘鲁矿山的物流运输遭到破坏，这些矿 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月2日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 重要资讯 1. 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果不是因为美国总统特朗普的关税政策，美联储目前应该会采取更宽松的货币 政策。在被问及7月份降息的可能性时，鲍威尔称不会排除任何可能性，这将取决于数据。他表示，美联 储"绝大多数"成员确实预计今年晚些时候再次降息是合适的。 2.中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 核心观点 今日两市成交额延续缩量，中小盘指数终结连涨，回落调整。如我们昨日所言，持续缩量下，指数上行动能 减弱，难以维持上行趋势。昨日中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，受此影响，相关板块例如海洋经济板块今 日大涨。当前信息面较平淡，红利指数连续两日领涨，表明市场情绪偏谨慎。不过今日各期指均贴水收敛， 尤其IC、IM贴水收敛幅度较大，可见市场对指数未来走势不算悲观，下方空间有限，预计短期区间震荡为 主。本月重点关注7月下旬召开的中央政治局，将分析下半年经济形势，部署宏观政策方向，或对股指产生一 定影响。 策略推荐 ...

热点资讯 1、中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。会议强调，要依法依规 治理企业低价无序竞争，规范政府采购和招标投标、招商引资，着力推动内外贸一体化发展，持续开展规范涉企执法专项行 动，健全有利于市场统一的财税体制、统计核算制度和信用体系。要加强顶层设计，加大政策支持力度，鼓励引导社会资本积 极参与发展海洋经济。 2、6月财新中国制造业PMI录得50.4，高于5月2.1个百分点，与4月持平，重回临界点以上。新订单指数反弹至略高于临界点水 平。生产指数亦重回扩张区间，创近七个月来新高。 早盘速递 2025/7/2 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动（手） 2025-07-01 2025-06-30 2025-06-27 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 2, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 843.5, up 3.18%. The spot price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was reported at 733, down 4 yuan/ton. The market sentiment improved significantly. The coking coal market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - On July 2, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1442.0, up 3.15%. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. The coke market is also expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the JM main - contract was 843.50 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan; the contract's open interest was 729,229.00 hands, down 18,701.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 contracts was - 46,931.00 hands, up 5,965.00 hands; the spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts was 48.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan; the number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 0.00 [2]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the J main - contract was 1442.00 yuan/ton, up 53.50 yuan; the contract's open interest was 57,171.00 hands, up 869.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 contracts was - 3,635.00 hands, down 266.00 hands; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts was 37.50 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 90.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coking Coal**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was 733.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; Russian coking coal forward spot was 115.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Coke**: The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream and Industry Situation - **Coking Coal**: The inventory of raw coal in 110 coal washing plants was 312.17 million tons, down 9.11 million tons; the inventory of clean coal was 214.98 million tons, down 16.89 million tons; the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 59.72%, up 0.62 percentage points; the raw coal production was 40,328.40 million tons, up 1,397.80 million tons; the import volume of coal and lignite was 3,604.00 million tons, down 179.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal in 523 coking coal mines was 185.00 thousand tons, down 4.50 thousand tons; the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 495.12 million tons, down 28.85 million tons; the total inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises was 808.98 million tons, up 13.19 million tons; the inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 781.21 million tons, up 6.55 million tons; the available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises were 12.39 days, up 0.10 days; the import volume of coking coal was 738.69 million tons, down 150.65 million tons; the production of coking coal was 4,070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons [2]. - **Coke**: The inventory of coke at 18 ports was 251.89 million tons, down 4.32 million tons; the inventory of coke in independent coking enterprises was 113.03 million tons, down 2.55 million tons; the inventory of coke in 247 steel mills was 627.75 million tons, down 6.45 million tons; the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 11.22 days, down 0.20 days; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 68.00 million tons, up 13.00 million tons; the production of coke was 4,237.60 million tons, up 77.60 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.35%, down 0.22 percentage points; the average loss per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 46 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points; the crude steel production was 8,654.50 million tons, up 52.60 million tons [2].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料 ，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠 ，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证 ，据此投资，责 任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议 ，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 。本报告版权仅为我公司所有 ，未经书面许 可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 ，且不得对本报告 进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/7/2 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,726.00 | +102.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,436.00 | +166.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | ...

Group 1: National Unified Market Construction - The Central Economic Committee emphasizes the importance of establishing a national unified market to eliminate "involution" competition and promote the integration of domestic and foreign trade [1][3] - Key requirements include unified market infrastructure, government behavior standards, and regulatory enforcement, along with continuous expansion of internal and external openness [3][4] - Six major work guidelines focus on addressing low-price disorderly competition, enhancing product quality, and facilitating the orderly exit of backward production capacity [3][4][5] Group 2: Industry Capacity Adjustment - The push for the exit of backward and inefficient production capacity will encompass a broader range of industries, including both traditional and emerging sectors such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles [1][5] - The strategy for capacity reduction will involve optimizing industrial layout, strengthening standard guidance, and promoting restructuring [5][6] - Historical data shows that after the supply-side structural reform initiated in 2015, profit margins in the steel and coal industries significantly improved, indicating potential benefits from similar future reforms [5] Group 3: Integration of Domestic and Foreign Trade - The meeting highlights the importance of integrating domestic and foreign trade, viewing it as a key opportunity for foreign trade enterprises to establish a presence in the domestic market and cultivate independent brands [6][7] - The establishment of a unified market system will provide institutional support for this integration, enhancing competitiveness and aligning domestic rules with international standards [6] Group 4: Marine Economy Development - The meeting outlines a focus on high-quality development of the marine economy, emphasizing innovation, efficient collaboration, and industry updates [8][9] - Key industries identified for growth include offshore wind power, modern deep-sea fishing, marine biomedicine, and marine tourism [9] - The marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in total output by 2024, reflecting a 5.9% year-on-year growth, presenting significant market opportunities [9]

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 2 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：纵深推进全国统一大市场建设 美国参议院表决结果通过"大而美"税收与支出法案，法案将送交众议院。美 国总统特朗普表示，有信心税收法案能在众议院获得通过。中央财经委员会召 开第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问 题。会议强调，要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，规范政府采购和招标投 标、招商引资，着力推动内外贸一体化发展，持续开展规范涉企执法专项行 动，健全有利于市场统一的财税体制、统计核算制度和信用体系。要加强顶层 设计，加大政策支持力度，鼓励引导社会资本积极参与发展海洋经国际贵金属 期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.28%报 3349.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期 货涨 0.20%报 36.25 美元/盎司。特朗普威胁对日本加征关税加剧贸易担忧，美 联储暗示可能降息，加上中东地缘风险持续，共同推动避险资金流入贵金属市 场济。 重点品种：黄金、集运、铜 集运欧线：EC 午后放量拉升，08 合约收于 1904.9 点，上涨 7.8%。最新一期 SCFIS 欧线表现超预期，同时近期其他联盟尚未明显跟降，7 ...

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 1 日，万得全 A 开盘震荡运行后有所回落，午后震荡回升，收涨 0.27%， 近 5 成个股飘红，指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘 分别上涨 0.17%、0.21%、0.33%、0.28%，中小盘股表现更优。指数期货表现整体 弱于现货，IF、IH 主力合约分别收涨 0.01%、0.03%，IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.07%、0.25%（按前一交易日收盘价为基 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating, with a long - term view of oscillating on the downside [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Rebounding [2] - Glass: Oscillating on the downside [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Uptrending [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Uptrending [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillating [4] - Silver: High - level oscillating [4] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean Oil: High - level oscillating [6] - Palm Oil: High - level oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Oil: High - level oscillating [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating on the downside [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating on the downside [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating on the downside [6][8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating on the downside [6] - Live Pigs: Rebounding [8] - Rubber: Rebounding [11] - PX: On the sidelines [11] - PTA: Try shorting on rallies [11] - MEG: Try shorting on rallies [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The overall iron ore market shows a pattern of gradually increasing supply, relatively low demand, and port inventories entering the accumulation phase, remaining in an oversupplied situation [2] - The coking coal and coke market may experience a weak adjustment, with attention paid to the trends of hot metal and the supply side of coking coal and coke [2] - The supply of rolled steel and rebar is expected to contract, and the overall demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance, with a pattern of high in the front and low in the back [2] - The glass market lacks substantial positive factors, and the price is under pressure due to weak reality [2] - The stock index market shows different trends, and with the improvement of economic data, it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4] - The bond market is in a state of narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4] - The gold market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4] - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly due to cost and demand factors [6] - The log market has relatively balanced supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the impact of the first log futures delivery [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - The meal market is expected to oscillate on the downside, and attention should be paid to North American weather, soybean arrivals, and Sino - US trade negotiations [6] - The live pig market is expected to continue to rise, with the southern market potentially leading the next round of price increases [8] - The rubber market is in a state of supply - demand adjustment, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [11] - The polyester market shows different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [11] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Recently, the spot trading of iron ore has been weak, and the basis has continued to narrow. The global iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume have both declined but are still at a high level in recent years. There is an expectation of an increase in shipments later, and the arrival pressure may increase. During the off - season in the industry, the production of five major steel products has increased, and the hot metal production has remained high. The port inventory of iron ore is still being depleted, but under the speculation of production - reduction policies, the demand for iron ore is expected to decrease. In the long term, the supply of iron ore is gradually increasing, the demand is relatively low, and the port inventory is entering the accumulation phase [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are rumors that some coking enterprises and coal mines may resume production, and the coking coal and coke market may experience a weak adjustment. The steel mills have suppressed the price of coke, and the fourth round of price cuts has been implemented. The downstream demand has weakened, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises has increased. Under the speculation of production - reduction policies, the demand for hot metal is expected to decrease [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Under the speculation of production - reduction policies, the supply of finished steel is expected to contract, and the market has rebounded. In the off - season, the demand for building materials has weakened, the production of five major steel products has continued to rise, the total steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise, and the apparent demand has slightly declined. The overall demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance [2] - **Glass**: There is no substantial positive factor in the glass market, and the speculative sentiment in the Shahe area has been reignited. The production line has both ignition and water - release situations. To meet the seasonal inventory depletion of glass, the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to below 154,000 tons. During the rainy season, the demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years. In the long term, the demand for glass is difficult to increase significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day showed different trends for different stock indices. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors were different. The central government emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June rebounded, indicating the resilience of the economy, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds remained flat, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The market interest rate was in a state of consolidation, and the bond market showed a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4] - **Precious Metals**: The gold market is affected by multiple factors such as the central bank's gold - buying behavior, interest rate policies, tariff policies, and geopolitical risks. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation. The silver market is also affected by similar factors, and attention should be paid to the release of inflation data [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has continued to be weak, and the cost support has weakened. The profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the pulp price will oscillate weakly [6] - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs at the port has increased, and the first log futures delivery has driven the activity of the spot market. The arrival volume is expected to increase, and the supply pressure has rebounded. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the impact of the first log futures delivery on the price [6] Oil, Fat, and Feed Industry - **Oils and Fats**: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil in May were higher than expected, and the inventory has increased for three consecutive months. The export of palm oil is expected to remain strong, and the demand for soybean oil and its upstream raw materials is expected to increase. However, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the oil and fat market will oscillate at a high level [6] - **Meals**: The soybean planting area in the United States in 2025 is slightly lower than the intention in March, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has improved. The South American soybean harvest is abundant, and the domestic soybean arrival volume is expected to be high. It is expected that the meal market will oscillate on the downside [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Currently, the pig - raising end has a strong sentiment of holding back prices, and the pig price in the north is expected to continue to rise. The southern market is expected to experience a supply shortage in July and may lead the next round of price increases. The average trading weight of live pigs has decreased, and the slaughter volume has increased. It is expected that the pig price will continue to rise [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: On the supply side, the natural rubber production areas are affected by rainfall, and the raw material supply is tight. On the demand side, the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has shown a structural rebound, but it is still restricted by market demand. The inventory situation is complex, and it is expected that the rubber price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [11] - **Polyester Products**: Different polyester products have different trends. PX is expected to follow the oil price, PTA is recommended to try shorting on rallies, MEG is also recommended to try shorting on rallies, PR may oscillate weakly, and PF is expected to oscillate and consolidate [11]