今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】美国能源信息署数据显示，截止6月20日当 周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量8.17632亿桶，比前 一周下降560万桶；美国商业原油库存量4.15106亿桶，比前一 周下降584万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.27938亿桶，比前一周下 降208万桶；美国原油日均产量1343.5万桶，比前周日均产量增 加4000桶，比去年同期日均产量增加23.5万桶；伊朗议会通过 暂停与联合国核查机构合作的法案；特朗普：下周美方将与伊 朗会谈；若伊朗重启核计划，美国将再度实施打击。评：地缘 溢价已经完全回落。供需看，5月OPEC+增产未达预期，OPEC+维 持增产的立场不变，需求偏弱。把握压力位沽空机会。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗 就一项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这 类协议"有多必要"。他补充说，美方此次将提出与此前在中 东局势升级前与伊朗谈判时相同的要求。特朗普表示，自己 "非常确信"以色列与伊朗之间的军事冲突已经结束。评：以 伊冲突结束，避险情绪降温，利空黄金。降息预期增加，美元 走弱，利多黄金。黄金中期震荡格局并未改变，但进一步上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in canola oil futures indicates a bearish sentiment in the short term, influenced by various market factors [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Canola oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 9468.00 yuan, closing at 9480.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.32% [1] - The short-term outlook for canola oil is bearish, with support levels identified between 9400-9420 yuan and resistance levels between 9750-9790 yuan [1] - Domestic canola oil inventory has slightly increased week-on-week, contributing to a relatively loose supply-demand situation [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures suggests a short-term bearish outlook for canola oil, citing the significant drop in crude oil prices as a negative influence on the profitability of blending vegetable oils with biodiesel [1] - Dayue Futures anticipates a range-bound trading scenario for canola oil, with expected fluctuations between 9300-9700 yuan [1] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of the upcoming hearings on U.S. biodiesel production expectations and the evolving trade relations between China and Canada [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of canola from overseas is expected to be tight, while domestic demand remains stable, leading to a mixed outlook for canola prices [1] - The USDA's projections for South American production in 2024/2025 are relatively high, which may influence global oilseed prices [1] - The Indonesian B40 policy is expected to boost domestic consumption, although international biodiesel profits remain low, indicating weak demand [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bean Meal**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - position trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, bean meal, edible oils, corn, hogs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, geopolitics, policies, and supply - demand relationships, and provides corresponding investment suggestions and trend judgments for each product [2][3][7] Summaries by Agricultural Product Categories Soybeans and Related Products - **Domestic Soybeans**: The remaining domestic soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and the policy is conducting auctions for supplementation. Short - term weather is favorable for domestic soybean growth. For imported soybeans, attention should be paid to the report on the new soybean planting area in the US at the end of June, and short - term weather is also beneficial for US soybean growth [2] - **Soybeans and Bean Meal**: The Israel - Iran war has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices, driving up the prices of oil - related futures. US soybean growing conditions are favorable in the next two weeks. Domestically, soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply has become more abundant, and bean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The soybean market is currently in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to changes in the oil market and future weather [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: CBOT soybeans should be monitored for the new planting area report at the end of June. The short - term weather outlook is beneficial for US soybeans. CBOT soybean oil prices are strong. Domestically, there is a large arrival pressure in the short term, and the fourth - quarter procurement progress is slower than usual. The long - term view is to maintain a long - position allocation for vegetable oils, and short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed meal prices generally declined today, while rapeseed oil prices showed mixed trends. The weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is dry, and the crop quality is below the average in recent years. Domestic rapeseed crushing has declined, which supports the high price difference between rapeseed products and competing products. The impact of geopolitical risks and biodiesel policies has been mostly digested, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy for rapeseed products is to shift from a bullish stance to a wait - and - see approach [6] Corn - The introduction of the minimum wheat purchase price policies in Henan and Anhui has strengthened the price increase expectations of corn/wheat. The supply of corn in the circulation link has tightened, and the futures market may continue to fluctuate [7] Hogs - The weekend increase in hog spot prices drove the futures market to open higher today and then fluctuate. In the short term, group farms are reducing supply to support prices, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased. In the medium term, the pressure on hog slaughter is large. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize hog prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Due to the high number of chick replenishments from January to April this year, egg - laying capacity is still being released. The long - term egg price cycle has not reached the bottom, and there is a possibility of further decline in the far - month contracts [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production. It is recommended to use strategies like expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil and reverse arbitrage of 9 - 1 contracts. There is potential to go long at low levels before the fourth quarter [5][8]. - Soybean oil also has a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. There is an opportunity to go long in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to changes in palm oil inventory inflection points and US soybean oil biodiesel policy [7]. - Soybean meal and soybean futures prices are expected to adjust and fluctuate next week, waiting for the end - of - month US soybean acreage report [21]. - Corn is expected to run strongly. Although CBOT corn has fallen, wheat prices have risen and corn starch inventory has changed. The overall supply - demand balance of corn remains tight [39][45]. - The international sugar market is expected to consolidate at a low level, while the domestic sugar market is expected to rebound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Brazilian production and export rhythm and Indian industrial policies [69][71]. - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate. The policy of state reserve purchase provides support, but the inventory cycle in the second half of the year depends on the social circle rhythm. The LH2509 futures contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment [105][106]. - The peanut market is in a stalemate and fluctuating pattern. The futures market is mainly in a state of shock, and the lower side of the futures price has support. Attention should be paid to the peanut planting area and weather in the producing areas [117][118]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil - **Last Week's Performance**: Due to the sudden positive news of US biodiesel obligation volume and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the palm oil 09 contract rose 4.86% last week [4]. - **This Week's Outlook**: June rainfall in Malaysia is expected to be dry, with production estimated to be 1.7 - 1.75 million tons. There is a risk that production from July to August may be lower than last year. Exports are strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. The US biodiesel policy is positive for the international oil market. However, if production in Malaysia and Indonesia remains strong from July to August, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure from August to September. It is recommended to use spread strategies in the short term and consider going long at low levels before the fourth quarter [5]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Performance**: Affected by the US biodiesel obligation volume and the Middle East situation, the soybean oil 09 contract rose 4.75% last week [4]. - **This Week's Outlook**: The EPA's significant increase in the 2026 biomass diesel RVO is positive for US soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. Inventory may peak in July, and there is an opportunity to go long in the fourth quarter [6][7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Performance**: US soybean futures prices first rose and then fell. Domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices were strongly volatile. The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week but were higher than expected. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate decreased week - on - week. Domestic soybean meal had high - volume trading in the far - month basis, and the Heilongjiang provincial reserve soybean auction was fully successful [17]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean are expected to adjust and fluctuate, waiting for the end - of - month US soybean acreage report [21]. Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices rose in the week of June 20. In the futures market, the price broke through and rose. The basis of the main contract weakened [39][40]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn fell due to increased rainfall in the US Midwest. Wheat prices rose, and imported corn auctions were suspended. Corn starch inventory decreased. The overall supply - demand balance of corn remains tight, and the price is expected to run strongly [41][45]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: In the international market, the net long position of funds in the New York raw sugar decreased significantly. In the domestic market, the spot price of Guangxi sugar groups decreased, and the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose. The 24/25 sugar - making season in China had an increase in production and sales [69][70]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international sugar market is expected to consolidate at a low level, while the domestic sugar market is expected to rebound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Brazilian production and export rhythm and Indian industrial policies [71][102]. Live Pigs - **This Week's Review**: The spot price of live pigs was strongly volatile. The supply was tight, and the demand was slightly improved compared with the beginning of the month. The futures price of live pigs was also strongly volatile [103][104]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The state reserve purchase policy provides support, but the inventory cycle in the second half of the year depends on the social circle rhythm. The LH2509 futures contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment [105][106]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: The spot price of peanuts rose, but the momentum for continuous price increase was insufficient. The futures price fluctuated [117]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is in a stalemate and fluctuating pattern. The futures market is mainly in a state of shock, and the lower side of the futures price has support. Attention should be paid to the peanut planting area and weather in the producing areas [118].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Overall, the market lacks a basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small because of cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 to 1150 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Section Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans first declined and then rose, showing a sideways oscillation. The price of US soybean meal continued to fall, while the price of US soybean oil rose significantly to a new high for the year and is expected to enter a period of platform oscillation. Last week, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) increased, while the spot price of soybeans in southwestern Iowa remained basically stable. In Brazil, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso remained stable, while the average spot price at Paranagua Port increased slightly [8][9][13][15] Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean-producing areas has improved, with the drought rate dropping from 39% last week to 35%. The temperature in the main soybean-producing areas of the US is 2 - 6 degrees Celsius higher than normal. Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate good precipitation in the main US soybean-producing areas, with no threat of drought. In Brazil, precipitation in the central region is low, and Argentina has entered a cold and dry winter. The US soybean planting progress is 93%, up from 90% last week, approaching the end of the planting season [29][31][33][42] Demand Factors - As of June 13, the US soybean crushing profit was $1.87 per bushel, up from $1.49 last week. The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 406,100 tons, down from 453,300 tons last week. The weekly export inspection volume was 215,800 tons, down from 547,000 tons last week. The weekly net sales volume was 539,500 tons, up from 61,300 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 75,000 tons, up from 58,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [45][47][49][51][53][55] Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is -0.227, indicating a basically neutral state. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of June 10, the net long position of soybeans was 54,800 lots, up from 35,500 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 33,900 lots, down from 34,700 lots last week; and the net short position of soybean meal was 75,800 lots, down from 86,400 lots last week [58][60][66][68][70]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-20 生柴政策支撑，油脂偏强震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8538.00元/吨，环比变化+20元，幅度+0.23%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8152.00 元/吨，环比变化+68.00元，幅度+0.84%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9691.00元/吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.12%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8760.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.11%，现货基差P09+222.00，环比变 化-30.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8330.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元/吨，幅度+0.97%，现货基差Y09+178.00， 环比变化+12.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9870.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.30%，现货基差 OI09+179.00，环比变化-18.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美湾大豆(7月船期)C&F价格467美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；美西大豆(7月船期)C&F价 格462美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；巴西大豆(8月船期)C&F价格467美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural futures market is experiencing a divergence in performance across different commodities, with varying supply and demand dynamics influencing prices [1] Group 1: Soybeans - Northeast soybean prices remain stable with light trading, as the market is cautious about the auction atmosphere for old grain [1] - Southern production area prices are steady, with high-quality soybeans maintaining strong prices despite weak demand in sales areas [1] - The soybean market is expected to face pressure at 4280 - 4300 CNY/ton and support at 4130 - 4150 CNY/ton, with tight supply but equally weak demand [1] Group 2: Peanuts - The peanut production area has low leftover stocks, influenced by delayed imports and poor profit margins, leading to fewer imported peanuts arriving [1] - New planting area for peanuts has slightly increased year-on-year, but demand remains weak as oil mills enter a purchasing lull [1] - Short positions may be considered with support at 8110 - 8182 CNY/ton and resistance at 8520 - 8528 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Oils - Soybean oil prices have risen due to the Israel-Palestine conflict and favorable U.S. biodiesel policies, although domestic fundamentals remain largely unchanged [1] - The short-term outlook for soybean oil is weak, with resistance at 8000 - 8010 CNY/ton and support at 7770 - 7780 CNY/ton [1] - Canola oil is benefiting from rising crude oil prices and improved demand, with expectations of sufficient supply in the upcoming months [1] Group 4: Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are influenced by rising crude oil prices and U.S. EPA proposals, which improve biodiesel blending profits and demand [1] - From June 1 to 15, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4%, while exports increased by 17.7% to 26.3% [1] - The market is advised to hold long positions with support at 8100 - 8140 CNY/ton and resistance at 8704 - 8798 CNY/ton [1]

2025年06月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：美国生柴政策及地缘风险均有利好 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：国内油脂表现或弱于国际油脂 | 2 | | 豆粕：生物柴油政策利多，连粕跟随美豆偏强 | 5 | | 豆一：豆类市场偏强，跟随补涨 | 5 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 9 | | 棉花：关注外部市场影响 | 10 | | 鸡蛋：梅雨季利空释放 | 11 | | 生猪：等待现货印证 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：美国生柴政策及地缘风险均有利好 豆油：国内油脂表现或弱于国际油脂 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,140 | 涨跌幅 1.62% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,414 | 涨跌幅 3.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is generally oscillating with a strengthening bias, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Directory Market Price - This week, the US soybean price first declined and then rose. The price dropped at the beginning of the week due to good weather in the US soybean - growing areas, but rallied on Friday night as all contracts of US soybean oil hit the daily limit on the bio - fuel blending side [8] - This week, the US soybean meal price continued to fall. After the significant positive news on the bio - fuel blending side of US soybean oil on Friday, the price of US soybean meal was further pressured [11] - Policy support led to a significant increase in the price of US soybean oil. The Trump administration proposed allowing refiners to blend more bio - fuels into gasoline and diesel next year, causing the price of soybean oil, the main raw material for biodiesel, to rise by 6.2%, the largest increase since January 10. If the policy is fully implemented, it is expected to drive the price of US soybean oil up to around 60 cents per pound [14] - Last week, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports increased, and the purchase price at farms (in Iowa) also rose. The spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa remained basically stable. In Brazil, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso state and the overall Brazilian spot price were basically stable [16][18][20] Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - growing areas has improved, with the drought rate at 39% this week compared to 45% last week. The temperature in US soybean - growing areas is normal, and the forecast for the next two weeks indicates good precipitation in the main US soybean - growing areas, with no drought threat [27][30][32] - Brazil has entered the dry season, with less precipitation in most areas. In Argentina, the central and northern production areas have more precipitation, and the temperature is basically normal [34][36] - The US soybean planting progress is 90%, up from 84% last week, approaching the end. The US corn planting progress is 97%, up from 93% last week, and the planting work is basically completed [39][41] Demand Factors - As of June 6, the US soybean crushing profit was $1.49 per bushel, down from $1.9 last week [44] - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 453,300 tons, up from 308,500 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 547,000 tons, up from 268,300 tons last week. The weekly net sales volume was 61,300 tons, down from 194,300 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 58,000 tons, up from 3,500 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [46][48][50][52][54] Other Factors - The latest value of ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.184, indicating a basically neutral state [57] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. The US soybean planting cost has decreased year - on - year, and the Brazilian soybean cost has also decreased year - on - year [59][63][64] - In terms of CFTC positions, the net long position of soybeans is 54,800 lots, up from 35,500 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil is 33,900 lots, down from 34,700 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal is 75,800 lots, down from 86,400 lots last week [65][67][69]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamental of palm oil is weakening marginally, lacking a strong upward drive. The market is expected to enter a bottom - building phase in the next one to two months with a possible downward trend, but the decline may be affected by various factors [48]. - In the long - term, the overall supply of palm oil is not abundant. If the B40 biodiesel policy is implemented smoothly and there are no significant macro - level negative factors, palm oil should not be overly underestimated, and it is expected to fluctuate within a large range [48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - Recent palm oil futures have increased in intraday volatility, affected by factors such as the U.S. biodiesel policy, India's tax cuts, and macro - external factors. The situation in palm oil - producing areas is crucial for the supply - demand pattern and price trends [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: In May, Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation was slightly lower than expected, with production increasing by 5.05% to 177 million tons, an export increase to 139 million tons, and apparent consumption at 33 million tons. In June, production may decrease by 4% to about 170 million tons, and from June to August, the average monthly production is expected to be around 179 million tons. The CPO spot price is expected to decline [6][7]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: From January to April, cumulative exports were 428 million tons, a 13% year - on - year decrease. In May, exports exceeded expectations, and India's tax cuts may lead to a short - term improvement, but overall annual exports may be weak [20]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Production**: In March, production increased by 16% to 481 million tons, exports increased to 288 million tons, and inventory decreased to 204 million tons. In Q2, production is expected to be normal but without the high growth rate of March [28][29]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Exports and Biodiesel**: In April, exports were weak. Indonesia raised the Levy tax, but also lowered the CPO reference price. Biodiesel implementation is not pessimistic, with a target completion rate of over 80% and a possible remaining balance in the biodiesel fund by the end of the year [35][38]. 3.3 Conclusion - In the short - term, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June may be around 200 million tons, similar to May. As the peak production season approaches, production and inventory will increase, and palm oil prices may decline. - In the long - term, the supply of palm oil is not overly abundant, and if the B40 biodiesel policy is implemented smoothly and there are no major macro - level negative factors, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a large range [48].