Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation in China shows mixed signals. In May, investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, and exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. With the approach of the Politburo meeting in July, there is a possibility of further strengthening of growth - stabilizing policies. In the US, economic data such as retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and ADP employment are weak, increasing the possibility of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The progress of international trade negotiations among various countries is complex, and the "Big Beautiful" bill's passage in the US House of Representatives needs attention. Macro - inflation trading is heating up, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, gold, and black metals are worthy of attention [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, in May, investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. The third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds will be released in July, and the 800 billion yuan "Two - Major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. In June, China's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all increased slightly, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. The central bank's net investment in the open market on June 26 reached 305.8 billion yuan, and attention should be paid to the possibility of further strengthening of growth - stabilizing policies in the July Politburo meeting [1]. International Trade Situation - The deadline for the US to suspend tariffs is approaching. Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on multiple countries. The EU is willing to accept the US "benchmark national tax" but seeks industry tax exemptions and quotas. The EU trade negotiation representative will go to the US for talks. The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, and Canada has cancelled the digital service tax. The India - US trade negotiation is deadlocked. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5, and the harmonized CPI increased to 2% [2]. US Economic Data and Policy - The US Senate passed the tax - reform "Big Beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives will vote on it. In May, US retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month. The June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, and the ADP employment decreased by 33,000. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on the Fed's at least two interest - rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Fed plans to relax key bank capital regulations, and stable - coin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3]. Macro - inflation Trading - From the 2018 tariff review, tariff - adding events first lead to a decline in trading demand and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the US "Big Beautiful" bill's passage and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. Non - ferrous metal sectors with supply constraints and gold are key areas of concern, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations. In the energy sector, the EU will extend sanctions against Russia, and attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6 [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [5]. Important News - The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch of "Two - Major" construction projects in 2025. Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on Japan. Powell said that without Trump's tariff plan, the Fed would adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. The US House of Representatives will vote on the Trump tax - legislation draft on July 2. US economic data such as manufacturing PMI and ADP employment are weak. Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel has agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire in Gaza. US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels last week [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize economic growth amid a complex external environment [1][2][3] - The Ministry of Finance has initiated the issuance of special bonds totaling 286 billion yuan, which includes 165 billion yuan for central financial institution capital injection and two long-term special bonds [1][2] - The issuance of super long-term special bonds is seen as a significant move to support investment, consumption, and stabilize expectations in the economy [2][3] Group 2 - The total planned issuance of central financial institution capital injection special bonds for 2025 is 500 billion yuan, with subsequent batches to follow [2] - In the first quarter, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.8% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.9% in March, indicating a positive recovery in investment and consumption [2][3] - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in liquidity support [3][4] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the acceleration of fiscal policy and the issuance of special bonds will enhance banks' ability to serve the real economy, potentially leveraging 4 trillion yuan in credit [3][4] - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to create a favorable environment for the smooth issuance of government bonds [4] - The second quarter is anticipated to see an acceleration in government bond supply, particularly for super long-term special bonds and central financial institution capital injection bonds [4]

Group 1 - In May, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The increase in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the sustained implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, including monetary measures such as interest rate cuts [1][2] - The production index in May was 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating accelerated manufacturing activity, while the new orders index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points [1] Group 2 - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs were 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing improvement [2] - The production expectation index for manufacturing enterprises was 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting stable confidence in market development [2] - New export orders and import indices were 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, both showing increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] Group 3 - From May 19 to May 25, monitored ports completed a cargo throughput of 27,134.8 million tons, a 2.8% increase, and a container throughput of 656.4 thousand TEUs, up 3.63% [3] - The rebound in export container freight indices and sustained high levels of port cargo throughput suggest a potential for continued export growth in May [3] - Analysts expect exports to maintain resilience in the second quarter, with high growth rates anticipated [3] Group 4 - The current international environment remains complex, necessitating continued efforts in stabilizing growth policies to solidify the economic recovery [3] - There is a call for increased government investment in public goods to boost market demand and corporate orders, which would support production and employment [3] - New incremental policies are expected to be introduced to further support economic stability and high-quality development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of 2025, focusing on sectors such as technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [1][2]. Economic Outlook - A series of domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to support a moderate economic recovery, enhancing liquidity and providing strong support for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3]. - The market is anticipated to show a trend of oscillating upward, with improved supply-demand structures across various industries [3]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on structural opportunities and emerging sectors, with an emphasis on safety and strategic industries supported by policies [6][7]. - The approach of "digging deep for Alpha while waiting for Beta" is recommended to navigate the market [7]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as essential for China's development path [5][6]. - The AI and cloud computing sectors are highlighted as areas of significant opportunity, with a strong alignment between market pricing and fundamentals [7][8]. Specific Industry Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is compared to the semiconductor industry, characterized by substantial market potential and policy support, making it a long-term investment opportunity [8]. - The military industry is expected to experience an upward phase due to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the centenary of the army, providing additional growth signals [8]. - The domestic IP operation market is evolving, with companies establishing comprehensive industry chain layouts, indicating potential for overseas expansion [8].

7月2日，市场全天震荡调整，创业板指领跌。截至收盘，沪指跌0.09%，深成指跌0.61%，创业板指跌 1.13%。 板块方面，钢铁、光伏、煤炭、海洋经济等板块涨幅居前，军工、脑机接口、CPO、半导体等板块跌幅 居前。 个股跌多涨少，全市场超3200只个股下跌。沪深两市全天成交额1.38万亿元，较上个交易日缩量891 亿。 截至收盘，今天全市场仅1945家上涨。数据显示，这是6月20日至今，也就是沪指突破以来，今天的上 涨家数属于偏少的一天，仅略多于6月26日。 在指数尚未明显走弱的背景下，个股表现偏弱，意味着什么？ 可以有多种理解，比如： 2）而结合近期没有新题材，但板块轮动不断加速的情况来看，市场资金可能在反复高低切的博弈（或 者说先手割后手）中，产生了畏高情绪，结果就是赚钱效应缺乏持续性。 总之，既然风险偏好程度有限，"避险"策略又渐渐占了上风。 上周五大跌的银行股，本周以来连续修复；红利指数也走出三连阳。 | 自▲ 第6 | 圏先 | K 21 | 881155 银行 | | 加自选 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AAAAAA | | | 前复权 @ ...

铝类产业日报 2025/7/1 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,635.00 90.00 | +55.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +5.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,945.00 81.00 | -40.00↓ -3.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 283,099.00 | +10693.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 280,309.00 | -8600.00↓ | | ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/7/1 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 80,640.00 | +770.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,944.00 | +75.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 250.00 | +60.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 223,983.00 | +11072.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 5,895.00 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China's economic sentiment has rebounded during Trump's tariff grace period, but economic pressure remains. With the implementation of policy dividends, investment and consumption demand are expected to be continuously released. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the Politburo meeting in July further increasing policies to stabilize growth [1]. - As the deadline for the US to postpone tariffs approaches, the EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures. The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, Canada has cancelled the digital service tax, and the India - US trade negotiation is at a deadlock. The subsequent progress of trade negotiations among countries needs continuous attention [2]. - The Fed is not in a hurry to act due to the unprecedented tariffs and the difficulty in predicting the impact on inflation. The "Big Beautiful" bill has passed the procedural vote in the US Senate, and the US retail sales in May declined significantly [3]. - Macro - inflation trading has heated up. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and the gold price related to inflation expectations are worthy of attention. The black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and gold on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, China's investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds will be issued in July. China's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in June all increased compared to the previous month, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months [1]. - The People's Bank of China made a net injection of 30.58 billion yuan on June 26th, the highest since April 30th [1]. Trade Negotiations - The Trump administration admitted the flexibility of the tariff schedule on June 12th. The EU is preparing counter - measures, and the EU Commission President is confident of reaching an agreement by July 9th. The UK - US trade agreement has reduced tariffs on UK exports to the US. Canada has cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US. The India - US trade negotiation is deadlocked over auto parts taxes [2]. US Economic Situation - Powell reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to act. The "Big Beautiful" bill has passed the procedural vote in the Senate, and the Senate will vote on the tax reform bill on Monday morning local time. US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since March 2023 [3]. Macro - inflation Trading - From the 2018 tariff review, tariff events first lead to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the "Big Beautiful" bill passing and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. The non - ferrous sector and gold are worthy of attention, and the black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations [4]. Energy - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026. Trump said that due to low oil prices, a cease - fire agreement with Russia is expected to be reached. The IEA predicts that the oversupply of oil in 2025 may continue until the end of this decade. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th [4][7]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and gold on dips [5]. Important News - China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in June all increased compared to the previous month [7]. - The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, reducing tariffs on UK auto and aerospace product exports to the US [7]. - Canada has cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US, and the two sides will restart negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21, 2025 [2][7]. - The US Senate has completed the reading of the "Big Beautiful" bill and started the debate, and will vote after the debate [3][7]. - China will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for five years starting from July 1, 2025 [4][7]. - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026 [7]. - Trump said that due to low oil prices, a cease - fire agreement with Russia is expected to be reached [4][7].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June increased to 49.7%, marking a rise for two consecutive months, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [1][2] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in market demand [2] - The production index rose to 51%, reflecting stable expansion in production activities, while the purchasing volume index increased significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2% [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion [3] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, attributed to seasonal declines in consumer travel demand post-holidays [3] - The construction sector showed accelerated expansion with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by ongoing infrastructure projects [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [5] - The second quarter's average non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, consistent with the first quarter, suggesting stable expansion in the first half of the year [4] - Analysts emphasize the need for continued macroeconomic policy support to stimulate growth and address demand shortages in the manufacturing sector [5][6]

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 我国制造业景气水平继续改善。 6月30日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2 个百分点，好于季节性。 数据同时显示，6月份，非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.5%和50.7%，比上月上升 0.2和0.3个百分点。三大指数均有所回升，这表明我国经济景气水平总体保持扩张。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对《中国经营报》记者表示，6月宏观经济继续处于稳中偏强状态。 制造业"淡季不淡" 对于6月制造业PMI的回升原因，王青认为，6月稳增长政策效应显现叠加贸易局势缓和，共同带动当月 宏观经济景气度延续回升。 据记者了解，本月五大分项指数出现四升一降。其中，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存、供应商配 送时间指数均较上月回升，但从业人员指数小幅回落0.2个百分点至47.9%，与4月持平。 总体来看，业界认为，市场需求回到扩张区间带动生产继续上行，价格指数有所反弹，这些都反映了我 国经济有足够的韧性，在对等关税暂缓和政策靠前发力的结合下，二季度经济比去年同期表现更有韧 性。 从企业规模看，6月大、中型企业PMI指数都出现一定幅 ...