美联储谨慎鸽派降息，预期明年经济转好 ——12 月美国 FOMC 点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 宏观经济 事件点评 分析师 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱：kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 事件： 美联储降息 25bp,政策利率降至 3.5~3.75%。 主要观点： 一、美联储观点 美联储对经济预期略有上升。美联储评估近期经济继续温和增长，其中消费者支出保持稳健，商业固定投资继续扩张，但地 产市场仍旧疲软。劳动力市场逐渐冷却，通胀略有上行。联邦政府临时关门可能会对当前季度 GDP 有所影响，但这种影响 大概率被政府重新开门后下个季度更高的增长所抵消。在 SEP 中，参与者对 GDP 增速的中位数略有提高，分别为今年 1.7% 以及明年 2.3%。鲍威尔认为明年经济更好来自四个因素，分别是财政政策刺激、AI 投资、政府重新开门，以及消费仍然稳 健。 继续降息仍主要源自非农数据疲软。鲍威尔对就业市场的观点与前两次记者会基本一致。失业率略有上升，工作报酬相比于 年初显著下降。鲍威尔继续认为目前劳动力供需双方均明显减少。劳动供给的下降来自移民下降 ...

昨日12月11日（星期四），黄金早盘冲高4247/4248区域受阻下跌，午后最低跌至4204附近。欧盘维持在4226-4204区间内震荡，美盘企稳开始大涨，到凌晨 最高上涨至4286附近，日线收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 1、美联储政策 连续降息与宽松信号：12月11日美联储宣布连续第三次降息25个基点，决策者措辞显鸽派，强调监测劳动力市场、承认通胀"仍偏高"，让市场认为进一步降 息可能性未关闭；同时宣布12月12日起购买约400亿美元短期国债，扩大资产负债表，结束2022年以来的量化紧缩，注入市场流动性。 二、技术面 利好逻辑：降息降低持有黄金的机会成本（Marex分析师Edward Meir观点），且削弱美元吸引力，同时强化经济软着陆预期，推动资金流入黄金市场。 2、地缘政治与数据 地缘风险：全球地缘局势动荡，如特朗普对乌克兰安全事务的参与、对委内瑞拉的强硬表态，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡召集安全内阁会议担忧对黎巴嫩军事行 动重启，增加全球不确定性，推动资金流入黄金避险。 数据悬念：市场聚焦12月16日公布的11月非农就业报告，若数据疲软将强化降息预期、推升黄金，若强劲或抑制涨幅；当前市场预计美联储1月降息概率仅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% aligns with market expectations, but internal divisions among committee members have increased, indicating potential future policy shifts [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve has implemented its third consecutive rate cut, totaling a 75 basis point reduction this year [3] - The current economic indicators suggest moderate expansion, but employment growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has risen [3] - There is a notable internal division within the Federal Reserve, with three members voting against the rate cut for the first time in six years, reflecting differing views on the necessity of further rate reductions [3][4] Future Rate Outlook - Experts predict that the pace of future rate cuts may slow, with a high probability of pausing rate cuts in the first quarter of next year [4] - The next Federal Reserve chair, likely to be more dovish, may lead to additional rate cuts in 2026 [4][6] - Current policy rates are still considered high relative to the actual rates indicated by the 10-year TIPS yield [4] Impact on Global Markets - The weak dollar environment resulting from the rate cut is expected to benefit global multi-asset allocation strategies [5][7] - Following the rate cut, major asset prices have shown differentiated movements, with U.S. stocks and precious metals rising, while the dollar index has fallen [6] - The decline in the dollar is anticipated to enhance the attractiveness of non-U.S. assets, including Chinese assets, as the narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential increases their appeal [9][10] A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market's performance is primarily driven by domestic economic demand, despite the favorable external environment created by the Fed's actions [9] - The weakening dollar is expected to attract foreign capital into Chinese assets, particularly benefiting sectors like technology and semiconductors [9][10] - The overall liquidity environment for A-shares is expected to improve due to the Fed's rate cuts and the anticipated strengthening of the RMB [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% aligns with market expectations, but internal divisions among committee members indicate increasing disagreement within the Fed [2][4] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Cuts and Economic Outlook - The Fed's third consecutive rate cut this year totals a 75 basis point reduction, reflecting a clear signal of monetary easing despite a slowing job market and rising unemployment rates [4] - Experts suggest that while there may be further rate cuts in the future, the pace will likely slow down due to persistent inflation and stable unemployment rates [5][6] - The internal dissent within the Fed, with three members voting against the cut, highlights differing views on the necessity and extent of future rate reductions [4][6] Global Asset Allocation and Market Reactions - The weak dollar resulting from the Fed's rate cut is expected to benefit global diversified asset allocation strategies, making risk assets more attractive [7][8] - Following the rate cut, major global asset prices showed varied reactions, with U.S. stocks and precious metals rising, while the dollar index fell to a two-month low [8] - The anticipated continued easing of monetary policy is likely to support the performance of risk assets, including U.S. equities and commodities [8] A-Shares and Domestic Economic Demand - The performance of A-shares is primarily dependent on domestic economic demand, despite the favorable global liquidity environment created by the Fed's actions [10][11] - The Chinese government's commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy is expected to support the RMB and attract foreign investment into Chinese assets [10][11] - The bond market may experience short-term volatility due to domestic factors, but overall, the environment remains supportive of a loose monetary policy [11]

Bolvin Wealth Management的Gina Bolvin在一份报告中称，美联储连续第三次降息，发出了一个明确的 信号：美联储不再只是关注通胀，而是在管理风险。她表示，这一决定反映出对该国经济内在动能日益 增长的担忧。她说，虽然通胀已经降温，但美联储也承认，政策滞后、地缘政治不确定性和信贷环境收 紧正愈发令前景承压。"这是美联储在试图引导经济实现软着陆，同时避免过度操控。"她表示，降息可 能会继续，但将是渐进的，而且只有在数据允许的情况下才会进行。 来源：滚动播报 ...

12月11日凌晨3点，华尔街将迎来关键时刻。市场对美联储降息的期待已经达到白热化程度——高达87.6%的概率预测将降息25个基点。 标普500指数早已提前消化这一预期，逼近历史高点，但与此同时，FOMC内部正经历严重分裂。 金融环境指数的紧张程度达到今年最高点。十年期美债收益率、美元指数和股票波动率均显示市场处于高度警惕状态。 02 关键措辞 在鲍威尔即将主持的新闻发布会上，交易员们将特别关注一个短语——"处于良好位置"。这个看似中性的表述已成为市场解读美联储未来意图的重要风向 标。 如果鲍威尔使用这一表述，意味着美联储可能认为当前的政策设定恰到好处，足以应对经济放缓，同时又不会过度刺激市场。这将暗示明年1月会议可能暂 停降息步伐。 在9月的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔曾谨慎使用这一措辞，随后市场对降息的预期明显降温。 01 市场预期 随着标普500指数攀升至历史高点附近，市场的紧张情绪与日俱增。芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具显示，市场对降息25个基点的预期概率高达87.6%。 这一数字几乎等于市场的一致预期。交易员们普遍认为美联储将通过降息向市场释放信号，尽管对后续政策路径仍存分歧。 值得注意的是，这将是自 ...

在经历了11月的市场下跌后，高盛客户正在撤回对人工智能和美国股市的激进看涨观点。最新调查数据 显示，随着市场情绪的降温，投资者对2026年标普500指数的预期已转向更为保守和审慎的立场。 针对782名机构客户的调查显示，投资者目前预计该基准指数在未来一年结束时将处于7,000至7,500点之 间。高盛Marquee平台全球内容策略、市场分析和数据科学主管Oscar Ostlund指出，这一预期较10月下 旬出现了大幅回撤，当时许多客户曾乐观地预计指数将在新年到来时跃升至7,200点。 尽管客户仍预计标普500指数在2026年会上涨，但Ostlund在周一的报告中明确表示，他们的目标已变 得"更加保守"。不过，尽管市场对人工智能的热情有所减退，但对美国经济前景的信心却有所改善，这 强化了市场对"非衰退性宽松周期"的预期，通常这一环境对风险资产具有支撑作用。 在这一背景下，投资者虽然继续支持长期的人工智能主题，但仓位配置变得更加具有选择性。市场关注 的焦点已从单纯的炒作转向具体的执行风险和资本回报率，同时投资者也在寻找AI科技股以外的广泛 投资回报机会。 经济软着陆信心增强 许多投资者认为市场上涨的范围将扩大到A ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is in a game stage between warm macro - expectations, regional supply tightening, and concerns about inventory accumulation. In the short term, lead prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a volatile and bullish trend [2]. - The core trading point in the short - term is the divergence between extremely low social inventory and "accumulating factory inventory". Be vigilant against the risk of a decline after a surge [6]. - In the long run, the seasonal decline in the scrap battery scrap volume and the reluctance of recyclers to sell provide rigid cost support for recycled lead, restricting the release of recycled lead production and limiting the downside space of lead prices [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Macro - level**: As the US December interest rate decision approaches, the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is rising. The weak US data has put pressure on the US dollar index, providing valuation support for the non - ferrous sector [2]. - **Supply - side**: In primary lead, smelters in Yunnan, Anhui, and Jiangxi are under centralized maintenance, tightening the regional spot circulation. In recycled lead, due to environmental permit renewal in Anhui and raw material shortages in Inner Mongolia, the operating rate has dropped to 48.4%, and the supply of scattered orders is extremely scarce [2]. - **Demand - side**: In winter, the automotive starting battery is in the traditional peak season. With the year - end sales push, the operating rate of large battery factories has risen to 74.46%, providing rigid demand support for lead prices [2]. - **Inventory - side**: Social inventory has dropped to a 15 - month low of 23,600 tons, giving strong motivation for long - position holders to force short - position holders [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures unilateral**: Go long on dips. The lead price has strong support at the 17,000 yuan/ton level. Buy contracts based on the moving - average support level, with a target price of around 17,500 yuan/ton. Pay close attention to the capital flow before the delivery of the 2512 contract [9]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Carry out calendar spread arbitrage (buy near - term contracts and sell far - term contracts). The current low inventory situation benefits near - term contracts, and the spot premium is firm. The Back structure is expected to be maintained [9]. - **Option strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options. Considering the strong cost support and low inventory, the possibility of a sharp decline in lead prices is very small. Sell put options with a strike price below 16,800 yuan/ton to collect premiums [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, short 75% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 17,400 yuan/ton [10]. - **Raw material management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, long 50% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 16,500 yuan/ton [10]. 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive drivers**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, weakening the US dollar index and boosting LME lead above $2,000/ton; the market is bullish on upcoming US and Chinese economic data; the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces has dropped to 65.92% due to smelter maintenance, tightening the market supply [11]. - **Negative drivers**: The operating rate of recycled lead has dropped to 48.4%, and the finished - product inventory has reached a new low since 2021; the SMM five - region lead ingot social inventory has dropped to a 15 - month low; the automotive battery sector is in the peak season, driving up the comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid batteries [12]. - **Neutral drivers**: High lead prices have suppressed downstream consumption; the factory inventory of primary lead delivery brands has increased, with a risk of inventory transfer for delivery; the profit of recycled lead enterprises has been repaired, which may stimulate the resumption of idle capacity [12][13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Domestic**: China's November CPI annual rate on December 9; the approaching delivery date of the SHFE lead 2512 contract on December 12 [14]. - **International**: US October JOLTs job openings on December 10; the Fed FOMC interest rate decision on December 11 [14]. 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price has been fluctuating strongly this week. Currently, profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The domestic basis structure is stable, and the SHFE lead monthly spread structure is slightly deviated but generally maintains a C structure [15][17]. - **International market**: As of 15:00 this Friday, the LME lead price was $2,016/ton, and the LME lead maintains a C structure [20][33]. 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Analyze the processing fees of primary lead and the relationship between the monthly output of lead concentrates and processing fees [39]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyze the import profit and loss of lead concentrates and their relationship with import volume, as well as the seasonal import and export volume of refined lead, lead concentrates, and lead - acid batteries [41][42][44]. 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Analyze the seasonal supply and actual consumption of domestic lead ingots [48]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Analyze the monthly output of lead concentrates, global lead ore production, electrolytic lead production, and recycled refined lead production, as well as their seasonal patterns and capacity utilization rates [50][51][56][58]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Analyze the seasonal operating rate of lead - acid batteries, including monthly and weekly rates, by type and region. Also, analyze the seasonal export and import volume of Chinese lead - acid batteries and the seasonal inventory days of finished products for enterprises and dealers [65][66][67][68][69].

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices surged to record highs, driven by Citigroup's upward price forecast and a weakening dollar ahead of anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] Group 1: Copper Market Insights - On December 5, LME three-month copper closed at $11,620.50 per ton, up $170.50 or 1.49%, with an intraday peak of $11,705 [1][2] - Copper prices have increased approximately 3.9% this week and have risen over 30% year-to-date [3] - Citigroup forecasts copper prices to continue rising, with an average price of $13,000 in Q2 2025, up from a previous estimate of $12,000, and a bullish scenario predicting $15,000 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Supply Factors - Analysts suggest that the rise in copper prices is a gradual process, with funds beginning to favor copper due to anticipated shortages from supply constraints at major mines [3] - The arbitrage between Comex and LME is expected to lead to increased copper flows to the U.S., exacerbating supply tightness in the LME market [3] - Despite the upward trend, LME spot copper's premium over three-month contracts has decreased from approximately $88 per ton to $33, indicating a lack of urgent demand for the metal [3] Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month zinc rising 0.24% to $3,098 per ton, previously reaching a near one-year high of $3,125 [2][3] - LME spot zinc's premium over three-month contracts has narrowed but remains around $145 per ton [3]

2025年，铜价抬升的原因之一是美国囤库。特别是在这一周，LME铜库存出现集中提货之后，市场对 于非美地区低库存的担忧越发高涨。COMEX—LME溢价持续存在，尽管三季度、四季度溢价较二季度 大幅回落，但溢价均值仍维持在330美元/吨附近。花旗集团表示，COMEX和LME套利交易导致铜流向 美国，预计将进一步加剧LME铜供应吃紧。而且随着投资者押注美国经济软着陆，宏观基金买盘将继 续支撑价格，同时供应缺口不断扩大，预计铜价将持续攀升至明年初，第二季度均价约为13000美元/ 吨，高于此前10月预测的12000美元/吨，其乐观情境预测从14000美元/吨上调至15000美元/吨。不仅是 花旗在继续看涨，国内研究者也普遍继续看涨铜。中信证券的最新预测认为，明年LME铜价中枢将上 移至12000美元/吨以上。成本维度上看，近十年全球铜矿的单位勘探成本增长逾20倍至3300美元/吨以 上，新建、扩建项目的投资强度翻倍至15000美元/吨以上，参考上一轮资本开支高峰的铜价水平，当前 刺激价格或将上移至12000美元/吨，底部效应明显。(券商中国) ...