如果美联储能够逐步降息，这将支持汇丰银行的核心观点，即美元兑多种货币将逐步走弱。 新华财经北京8月12日电汇丰银行全球外汇研究主管Paul Mackel表示，美元的走势可能取决于市场对美 联储政治倾向的解读。美联储的下一步货币政策举措以及下一任美联储主席的人选都存在不确定性。 （文章来源：新华财经） 然而，如果市场开始担心美联储受到的政治干预，美元的走势可能会有所不同，这取决于跨资产波动率 的变化以及美国长期债券收益率的走势。在形势不妙的情况下，美元兑欧元、日元、瑞郎和人民币等核 心货币最初可能会走弱。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank indicates that fluctuating U.S. policies may lead to a weaker dollar, as overseas investors might reduce their allocation to U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over returns [1] Group 1: U.S. Dollar Outlook - The dollar is currently trading within a narrow range, awaiting the U.S. July CPI report on Tuesday [1] - Recent employment data has weakened, raising near-term rate cut expectations, which contributed to the dollar's decline last week [1] - The impact of import taxes on inflation is being closely monitored, as it may influence the dollar's trajectory [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment and Treasury Demand - A reduction in foreign investment appetite could pressure both U.S. Treasury financing costs and the dollar [1] - If this week's CPI indicates limited transmission of import taxes, expectations for rate cuts may rise, further weakening the dollar [1] Group 3: Currency Movements and Market Sentiment - The British pound's short-term performance may be influenced by data revisions and guidance from the Bank of England [1] - The Singapore dollar is expected to experience range-bound trading, with market sentiment and the dollar's direction being key drivers [1] - Overall, policy uncertainty is amplifying, with "data + policy communication" dominating the rhythm of the currency market this week [1]

格隆汇8月11日｜高盛表示，中国人民设定的人民币中间价显示出升值倾向，人民币汇率将继续逐步向7 迈进。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 高盛指出，自5月以来，人民币中间价每月逐步调强，显示出稳步且可控的升值倾向。无论美元近期走 势如何，中国央行保持着对人民币走强的异常倾向。这表明在市场普遍预期美元中期走弱的背景下，中 国央行正在进行前瞻性的外汇管理。 高盛认为中国央行将继续执行人民币兑美元的逐步升值路径，即期汇率未来6个月有望达到7的观点。美 国数据疲软和或美联储降息可能会引发美元兑人民币进一步下跌。高盛称，美元兑人民币实际波动率下 降，部分反映市场对中美关系显著再度升级的可能性预期降低，同时也突显央行明确倾向于避免人民币 出现剧烈波动。 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月8日丨荷兰国际集团经济学家Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，在特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰 填补美联储理事会空缺后，美元仅小幅走弱。米兰最近因降息问题批评过美联储，并呼吁对美联储进行 全面改革，他将暂时填补这一职位，直到明年1月任期届满。有报道称，美联储理事沃勒是接替美联储 主席鲍威尔的热门人选，这一消息也抵消了这一影响。与另一位潜在候选人凯文•哈塞特相比，他在降 息问题上的立场更为温和。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Global economic growth is slowing, with an expected growth rate of approximately 1% in the second half of the year [1][2] - The U.S. is anticipated to begin cutting interest rates three times starting in September [1][2] - Trade agreements have led to slight GDP forecast increases for Europe, Japan, and South Korea, while the European Central Bank's rate remains unchanged at 2% [2] - The U.S.-China trade relationship remains stable, with both sides agreeing to extend a 90-day period without increasing tariffs [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - U.S. labor market data has shown signs of a downturn, with a revised growth forecast of 1.2% for the first half of the year and a similar expectation for the second half [2] - India's GDP forecast has been slightly downgraded due to a 25% retaliatory tariff, with revisions for Q4 GDP also noted [2] - Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, with a need to closely monitor oil prices as supply constraints could have significant impacts [3][8] - The Indian central bank's upcoming meeting is under scrutiny due to domestic economic challenges and potential interest rate hikes [3][9] Market Dynamics - Following the release of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, the U.S. dollar surged, but market conditions have since stabilized, leading to increased volatility against Asian currencies [4] - The U.S. labor market's turning point has led to a reassessment of growth prospects and interest rate expectations, reigniting predictions of a weaker dollar [5] - Selective trading strategies are favored in the current environment, particularly in Hong Kong and India, where managing front-end inflation is crucial [6] Additional Insights - The Indian central bank's intervention strategies have evolved, focusing on smoothing market fluctuations rather than directly preventing volatility [11] - India's current economic status includes approximately $695 billion in reserves, with a trade deficit of about $18 billion last month, primarily influenced by oil prices [12] - Upcoming data releases from China and the Bank of England's meeting are critical points of interest, alongside potential nominations for the new governor of the Federal Reserve [13]

Summary of Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Global macroeconomic trends, particularly in the US economy and interest rates - **Key Participants**: Vishwanath Tirupattur, Michael Gapen, Seth Carpenter, Matthew Hornbach, Martin Tobias, James Lord Key Points Economic Indicators - **2Q GDP Performance**: Domestic demand has softened significantly, slowing to a 1.2% pace from 2.7% in the previous year [5] - **Labor Market Trends**: There is a sharp drop-off in labor demand, with downward revisions to May and June employment figures totaling 258,000 [40][7] - **Recession Signals**: A deceleration in nonfarm payrolls is more closely correlated with recession risk than revisions to prior data [11] Central Bank Policies - **Federal Reserve Outlook**: The expectation is that the Fed will maintain its current policy stance, with no rate cuts projected until March 2026 despite rising inflation [40] - **Global Central Banks**: The Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to remain on hold, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may ease policies this year [40] Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - **Market-Implied Rates**: The market is pricing the Fed's policy trough rate to move well below 3.00% [15][40] - **Term Premiums**: Concerns regarding the quality of US economic data and a dovish bias from the FOMC are expected to keep term premiums elevated [40] - **USD Outlook**: Continued weakness in the USD is anticipated, with expectations that the bear market for the currency is not over [40] Treasury Issuance - **Composition of Treasury Issuance**: Bills have been crucial in financing Treasury's borrowing needs, and this trend is expected to continue, leading to a lower weighted average maturity (WAM) of marketable debt [28][31][40] Investment Strategies - **Recommended Positions**: - Long UST 5-year notes and FVU5 futures - Short 10-year TIPS breakevens - Long January 2026 fed funds futures - Stay short USD [40][41] Additional Insights - **Tariff Impact**: Evidence of tariff pass-through is becoming clearer, with prices of goods exposed to tariffs showing sharper increases [40] - **Inflation Concerns**: Inflation remains a significant concern for the Fed, with expectations of price pressures in heavily tariffed goods [40] Conclusion The call highlighted a cooling US economy with significant implications for labor demand and central bank policies. The anticipated trajectory of interest rates and the ongoing weakness of the USD present both risks and opportunities for investors. The focus on Treasury issuance and the impact of tariffs on inflation further complicate the macroeconomic landscape.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the end of the dollar bear market and highlights significant impacts from trade agreements involving over $600 billion in investments and $750 billion in U.S. energy procurement, which have notably influenced the foreign exchange market [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation and its focus on labor market reports suggest a potential rebound risk for the dollar if unemployment rates do not rise as expected [1][4] - Trade policy uncertainty is currently showing a positive change rate, indicating that if uncertainty decreases, the dollar may rise to levels suggested by yield differentials [6] - A reduction in oil imports from Russia could pressure the global oil market, raising oil prices and negatively impacting emerging market currencies, while potentially delaying Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, thus providing some support for the dollar [1][7] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach, awaiting more evidence on inflation to assess potential price level adjustments and their ripple effects [4] - If the unemployment rate does not rise as anticipated, the risk of a dollar rebound increases [4] - The Fed may need to implement two to three rate cuts by the end of 2026 to maintain a neutral policy stance [5] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The current positive change rate in trade policy uncertainty suggests that the worst may be over, and a reduction in uncertainty could lead to a dollar increase [6] - The negative impacts of tariffs are expected to manifest in the fourth quarter, potentially necessitating significant rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 to address economic slowdowns [6] Oil Price Movements - A decrease in oil imports from Russia could lead to higher global oil prices, adversely affecting emerging market currencies that are oil importers [7] - Recent increases in Brent crude oil prices from $68-69 per barrel to over $72 have contributed to the underperformance of currencies like the yen [7] - Typically, a strengthening dollar index results in corresponding depreciation of emerging market currencies, with the potential for further weakening if oil prices rise due to reduced imports from Russia [8]

#报告 渣打美元走势展望及客户常见问题答疑None (@None):None ...

截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为781.12元/克，上涨1.33%。 影响黄金价格走势的重要因素 1. 非农数据爆冷与降息预期升温：美国7月非农就业岗位仅增加7.3万个，远低于预期，6月数据大幅下 修，失业率升至4.2%。这使得市场对美联储9月降息预期从38%激增至90%，甚至有人预测9月可能一次 性降息50个基点。低利率环境下，黄金作为无收益资产的吸引力增强，为金价上涨提供有力支撑。 黄金走势与未来展望 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 近期黄金受非农数据、关税政策及美元等因素影响大幅上涨。短期来看，若美联储如市场预期降息，且 关税问题持续发酵，黄金有望继续上行。不过，美国即将公布的经济数据若超预期，或美联储官员讲话 偏鹰派，可能引发金价回调。长期而言，全球经济不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势以及央行购金等因素， 将为黄金提供支撑，使其维持高位震荡并有进一步上行可能。 来源：金融界 2. 关税风暴引发避险需求：特朗普对加拿大、巴西、印度等多国产品加征高额关税，导致全球股市暴 跌，市场避险情绪迅速升温。黄金作为传统避险资产受到投资者追捧，关税政策带来的不确定性强化了 其作为经济对冲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll data indicates a decline in employment market resilience, suggesting a potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September if inflation does not exceed expectations in the coming months [1][5]. Employment Data Analysis - The significant downward revisions of employment numbers for May and June were attributed to seasonal adjustments and new feedback from surveyed companies, with May's employment revised down by 125,000 to 19,000 and June's by 133,000 to 14,000, marking the largest revision since the pandemic [1][2]. - The employment growth is primarily supported by the education and healthcare sectors, with July adding 79,000 jobs in these areas, while other sectors showed negative growth, particularly in leisure, hospitality, and manufacturing, which lost 11,000 jobs [3][4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The duration of unemployment has increased, with a notable rise in the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits and those unemployed for over 27 weeks since 2025, indicating a growing challenge in job recovery [3][4]. - The labor force participation rate has declined due to reduced immigration, contributing to a lower unemployment rate despite weak job growth, as the labor supply has tightened [4]. Wage Growth and Economic Outlook - Wage growth remains resilient, with average hourly earnings in the private sector increasing both year-on-year and month-on-month in July, alongside a 0.9% rise in the labor cost index for Q2 [4]. - The weak employment data enhances the feasibility of interest rate cuts, with market expectations for rate reductions increasing to approximately 2.7 times within the year, influenced by the recent employment figures and manufacturing PMI [5].