Core Insights - The global gold market experienced a significant increase in demand value, reaching a record $132 billion in Q2 2025, despite only a 3% increase in demand volume year-on-year [2] Group 1: Investment Demand - The primary driver of increased gold demand in Q2 was the investment sector, with both institutional investors and retail investors participating actively [3] - Global gold ETFs saw a substantial inflow, with holdings increasing by 170 tons in Q2 and a total of 397 tons in the first half of the year, marking the strongest performance since 2020 [3] - Retail demand for gold bars and coins rose by 11% year-on-year, with China and Europe being the main contributors, particularly China, where demand reached 115 tons, amounting to over 83 billion RMB [3][4] Group 2: Jewelry Demand - In contrast to investment demand, global gold jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons, while the monetary value of jewelry consumption increased by 21% to $36 billion [5] - The decline in jewelry volume is attributed to rising gold prices, with the average price in Q2 reaching $3,280 per ounce, a 40% increase year-on-year [6] - Consumers are increasingly viewing jewelry as an investment rather than a luxury item, with trends such as "old for new" exchanges and using jewelry as collateral for loans becoming more common [6] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks globally net purchased 166 tons of gold in Q2, a decrease of 33% from the previous quarter, marking the lowest level since 2022 [7] - The slowdown in purchases is attributed to high gold prices, as central banks act rationally and avoid buying at peak prices [7] - Despite the decrease, the current purchasing levels are still 41% higher than the average quarterly levels from 2010 to 2021, indicating a sustained long-term interest in gold [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Key variables to monitor for the gold market in the second half of the year include the performance of the US dollar, technological demand for gold, and potential changes in gold recycling rates [9] - The anticipated weakening of the dollar could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, potentially attracting more investment [9] - The demand for gold in technology, particularly related to AI, may present new growth opportunities despite a general decline in technological gold usage [9] Group 5: Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold is viewed as a tool for managing uncertainty, serving as a risk diversification asset for institutions, a safety net for central banks, and a stabilizing component for individual investors [11] - The dynamics observed in the gold market reflect broader economic uncertainties and the varying strategies of different market participants in safeguarding their assets [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in gold and silver prices, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions, U.S. government shutdown, and inflation expectations on precious metals markets. It emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold and silver despite short-term fluctuations [3][5][6]. Gold Market Analysis - On October 9, gold prices experienced a dramatic reversal, with COMEX December gold futures reaching nearly $4,078 before dropping to below $3,958, reflecting a daily decline of approximately 2.8% [5]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the U.S. government entering a technical shutdown and delayed economic data releases, which heightened market anxiety and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin [5][6]. - The World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased a total of 415 tons of gold in the first half of 2025, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [6][7]. - UBS forecasts that gold prices could rise to $4,200 per ounce in the coming months, driven by fundamental and momentum factors [7]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices followed a similar trajectory to gold, with COMEX December silver futures reaching $49.965 before falling to $46.89, marking a daily decline of 4.3% [10]. - The dual logic behind silver's price increase includes its financial attributes benefiting from U.S. monetary policy and its industrial applications, particularly in electronics and renewable energy [10][11]. - Silver has seen a cumulative increase of over 67% since the beginning of the year, the largest gain for the metal since 1979, outpacing gold's approximately 54% increase during the same period [11]. - Analysts caution that silver's smaller market size makes it more susceptible to volatility compared to gold, suggesting that while silver may offer speculative opportunities, gold is better suited for portfolio diversification [11][12].

10日午间，COMEX黄金期货报3987.60美元，COMEX白银期货报47.40美元，均已较周四低位反弹。 价格屡创新高的金银9日经历戏剧性的盘中逆转。 刚刚过去的9日，以色列哈马斯之间的和谈进展令美元指数上涨0.72%，突破99高位，创两个多月新高。贵金属则 随即转跌，国际金价跌破4000美元，跌幅达1.7%；现货白银历史性地自1980年来首次涨破50美元关口，上探51美 元，但随后一度回落超5.6%。但期金和现货黄金盘中均曾扭转涨跌幅，反映市场依然看好贵金属长期结构性、周 期性牛市前景。 10日午间，COMEX黄金期货报3987.60美元，COMEX白银期货报47.40美元，均已较9日低位反弹。 黄金上涨趋势不改 9日美股盘前，金价一度连续第四日创盘中最高纪录，COMEX 12月黄金期货接近4078美元，日内涨近0.2%，现货 黄金逼近4058美元，日内涨近0.4%，但午盘刷新日低，期金跌至3958美元下方，日内跌近2.8%，现货黄金跌至 39451美元，日内跌2.4%。 机构HashKey Group的首席分析师丁（Jeffrey Ding）告诉第一财经，黄金最近一波上涨背后的一个因素是，在美 国两党 ...

Core Viewpoint - The minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting are unlikely to significantly impact the US dollar, as future developments in inflation and the job market will be more decisive for the Fed's future decisions [1] Group 1 - Analyst Antje Praefcke from Deutsche Bank suggests that the upcoming minutes may highlight divisions among policymakers, but this is not a new phenomenon [1] - The current government shutdown is causing delays in the release of official data, making it meaningless to react to past statements from Fed members until new information emerges [1]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased, with NY sugar reaching a 4-week high and London sugar a 1.5-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and stronger global demand, particularly from Pakistan's order of 320,000 MT of sugar for immediate delivery [1] Group 1: Market Trends - NY sugar futures hit a 4.25-year low last Tuesday, while London sugar reached a 4-year low, continuing a 7-month downtrend due to expectations of abundant global sugar supplies [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, with a projected deficit of -231,000 MT, an improvement from -4.88 MMT in 2024/25 [5] Group 2: Production Insights - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, totaling 3.872 MT, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% from 48.78% the previous year [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August fell by -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not alleviate the country's sugar surplus and could lead to exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [4] - Expectations for abundant sugar supplies are reinforced by projections of a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years, and a record global sugar production forecast of 189.318 MMT, up +4.7% year-on-year [6]

Core Viewpoint - Franklin Templeton's Kelly Investment report suggests that the strong dollar trend of the past 15 years may be ending, with a weaker dollar expected in the first half of 2025, although recent stability in exchange rates indicates that the decline may be due to cyclical factors [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to risk-averse operations concerning U.S. assets, ongoing structural challenges from the expanding U.S. federal deficit, and trade and tariff policies from the Trump administration [1] - Short-term, the likelihood of significant depreciation of the dollar against major Asian currencies is low, as China is unlikely to allow substantial appreciation of the yuan while dealing with deflationary pressures, and the yen remains significantly undervalued [1] Group 2: Long-term Economic Outlook - In the medium term, U.S. economic growth is expected to lead globally again, which may limit downward pressure on the dollar [1] - The U.S. maintains a leading position in the AI sector, with approximately 2,000 more data centers than the combined total of the next ten countries, suggesting that ongoing infrastructure support for AI could enhance productivity and provide economic benefits that support the dollar [1] Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - The relationship between the dollar's performance and stock market performance has been closely linked over the past 50 years, indicating that the future direction of the dollar will have profound implications for global stock market leadership [1] - Investors are advised to reassess their global asset allocation, as the dynamics of the next decade may differ significantly from those of the past decade [1]

投资者面临的一个大问题是，美国月度就业报告是否会动摇他们对美联储最早在10月再次降息的信心。 上周，美联储官员对货币政策的看法凸显分歧，而且部分经济数据强于预期，交易员减少了对美联储进 一步宽松政策的押注。就业市场疲软促使美联储本月首次降息，交易员预计10月28日至29日会议上再次 降息的概率大约有80%。不过，他们可能需要更多疲软的数据来验证劳动力市场正在降温的观点，从而 巩固对美联储的进一步宽松预期。Marlborough Investment Management Ltd.投资组合经理James Athey表 示，就业报告是"构成疲软经济、鸽派美联储政策的最关键部分"。 展望后市，三菱日联分析师李·哈德曼指出，如果劳动力市场保持疲软，从而促使美联储在年底前再进 行两次25个基点的降息，美元在临近年底时会进一步走弱。 德国商业银行分析师迈克尔·普菲斯特则表示，鉴于美联储独立性面临威胁以及经济前景疲软，美元可 能难以实现有意义的复苏。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰日内继续呼吁大幅降息，米兰认为当前经济处于关键转折点，若维持利率远高 于他估计已降至接近零的"中性"水平，美联储可能面临就业市场 ...

Exchange Rate Indices - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all rose in the week of September 26, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.97, up 0.61, marking the highest level since April 2025 [1] - The BIS currency basket RMB index reached 102.87, up 0.73, also a new high since April 2025 [1] - The SDR currency basket RMB index was reported at 91.34, increasing by 0.44 [1] USD Performance and Impact on RMB - The USD index showed a "weak then strong" trend over the week, with a cumulative increase of 0.55% [5] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1349 against the USD, down 161 basis points for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1413, down 217 basis points [5] - The RMB's middle rate against the USD was reported at 7.1152, with a weekly adjustment down of 24 basis points [5] Future Outlook on RMB - Short-term RMB appreciation remains uncertain due to internal and external pressures, with the USD's performance being a key variable [6] - Analysts expect the RMB middle rate to stabilize between 7.10 and 7.11 in the short term, with a potential for the RMB to strengthen against a basket of currencies if the middle rate remains stable [6] - By year-end, the RMB is anticipated to break below 7.10 and possibly reach 7.0, supported by factors such as increased foreign exchange settlement by enterprises and a strong middle rate signal from the central bank [7]

Group 1 - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. August Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation measure closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year rise to 2.7% [2] - Analysts warn that gold faces significant short-term challenges if the PCE data exceeds expectations, which could support the view that the Federal Reserve needs to maintain high interest rates, leading to a stronger dollar and downward pressure on gold [2] - Conversely, if the PCE data shows a moderate trend or falls short of expectations, it could strengthen market expectations for interest rate cuts, providing strong momentum for gold prices to break out of the current range and initiate an upward trend [2] Group 2 - On the trading day, gold opened at $3736.1, experienced a downward trend to $3729.7, then rebounded, reaching a high of $3761.5 during the European session before dropping to a low of $3722 [3] - Despite some rebound near the close, gold ultimately settled at $3749, forming a spinning top candlestick pattern on the daily chart, indicating potential stabilization in the adjustment phase [3] - Key support is noted at $3730, while the target price for upward movement is set at $3785 [3]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu After relentlessly pushing higher and higher, global share markets seem to have run out of reasons to rally further as investors come to grips with how stretched valuations are. Wall Street closed lower for a second day and that provided little direction for Asia, with stocks here mostly sticking to tight ranges. Chinese bluechips, however, were an exception, up 0.9%, catching up on the global AI surge. Europe is also set for a flat ...