Group 1 - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and urges the Fed to initiate a cut at the September meeting, believing that tariff-driven price increases are unlikely to sustain inflation [1][3] - Current investor sentiment indicates an 88.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with market speculation shifting towards a potential 50 basis point cut [1][3] - Recent comments from various Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, have signaled a dovish stance, advocating for a prompt rate cut [3] Group 2 - The shift in Federal Reserve officials' attitudes is largely attributed to the July non-farm payroll report, which showed a significant cooling in the labor market, with only 73,000 new jobs added, below expectations, and an upward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in previous months [3] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, further indicating labor market deterioration [3] - Upcoming key data releases, including the July CPI on August 12 and July PPI on August 14, will provide important insights for the Fed's monetary policy adjustments [3] Group 3 - Despite significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, market focus should remain on Chairman Powell, who may signal a shift in monetary policy focus from inflation to the labor market at the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled for August 21-23 [4]

8月8日北京时间盘前，美元指数小幅上涨0.18%，达到98.36，美元兑日元同样走高至147.49，市场关注 点聚焦于美联储理事沃勒成为特朗普团队热门美联储主席候选人的消息。据彭博报道，沃勒已与特朗普 团队成员会面，表现出色，虽尚未与总统正式会谈，但其政策立场和背景被视为可能影响未来美联储的 走向。 这种不同节奏的货币政策预期，正引发全球资本流动的新一轮调整。美元走强可能对新兴市场货币形成 压力，而英镑和欧元则在政策信号微妙变化中寻求支撑。投资者需关注美联储人事变动的进展，以及主 要央行未来的政策路径，来判断外汇市场的下一步动向。 美元近期的走强不仅是对美联储政策预期调整的反映，也包含了对潜在人事变动所带来的政策连续性与 变革性的预判。在全球经济复苏的不确定性背景下，谁将掌舵美联储，将成为影响国际资本市场的关键 因素之一。 与此同时，英国央行宣布降息25个基点，但投票结果显示，更多决策者倾向于维持利率不变，反映出英 国央行内部对高通胀的担忧。这使得市场对英国连续降息周期的预期趋于谨慎。英镑尾盘上涨0.41%， 报1.341美元，体现出投资者对英国货币政策转向稳定的积极反应。 欧元则在消息面影响下呈现震荡走势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller, a prominent "hawk" within the Federal Reserve, is being considered as a potential candidate for the Fed Chair by Trump's team, which could lead to significant shifts in global monetary policy [2]. Group 1: Waller's Policy Stance - Waller is known for being the most steadfast hawk within the Federal Reserve, advocating for interest rate hikes up to 6% [3]. - He introduced the "Waller Rule," which states that interest rates must be raised if the unemployment rate falls below 4% [3]. - Waller has publicly opposed Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), arguing that they pose a threat to financial freedom [3]. Group 2: Implications of Waller's Potential Appointment - Waller's hawkish stance aligns with Trump's image as a "fighter against inflation," potentially influencing economic policy direction [4]. - His appointment could serve to counterbalance current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is viewed as a guardian of Biden's political legacy [4]. - Waller has strong ties with major Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan, which may affect market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Potential Market Impact - If appointed, Waller may accelerate the balance sheet reduction, leading to a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve [4]. - Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, could face stricter regulations under Waller's leadership [4]. - There may be an increasing divergence in policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, putting pressure on the Euro [4]. Group 4: Broader Context - The ongoing competition for the Federal Reserve Chair position highlights a deeper crisis of politicization within U.S. monetary policy [4]. - The independence of the central bank may be challenged by electoral politics, making the Fed a significant source of uncertainty in global financial markets by 2025 [4].

与此同时，加拿大、欧元区等主要经济体已先行一步。欧洲央行在7月降息25个基点，加拿大央行表示将"进入观察期"，日元汇率持续走强亦被视作日本可 能调整负利率政策的前奏。这种政策转向或将推动全球资金从"现金为王"重新向"风险再配置"过渡。 而Crypto市场，历来就是对预期变化最敏感的风险资产之一。以比特币为例，其历史上三轮主要上涨周期均发生在货币政策由紧转松的区间（2013、2017、 2020年）。流动性回暖背景下，市场的"投机空间"与"估值弹性"将快速打开。 刚刚过去的FOMC会议上，美联储维持利率在5.25%-5.5%不变，同时下调年内加息预期。尽管并未明确表态降息路径，但市场已经开始押注政策拐点将至。 与之对应，全球风险资产同步回暖：美股再创新高，黄金反弹，比特币短线升破69,000美元，以太坊重回3800上方。多项链上数据显示，加密市场正在悄然 蓄力。 以太坊 从鲍威尔的讲话来看，尽管核心通胀仍高于2%的目标区间，但"通胀路径向好"已经成为美联储当前研判的主旋律。6月CPI数据同比上涨3%，创下2021年以 来最低水平，PPI与核心通胀也出现同步放缓。高盛、高纬环球等机构预测，美联储可能在2024年末 ...

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio faces significant political pressure following a historic electoral defeat, leading to a critical test of investor interest in 40-year government bond auctions [1] - The Japanese government plans to issue approximately 28.65 trillion yen in new national bonds for the fiscal year 2025, despite a slight reduction from the previous fiscal year, raising concerns among investors due to Japan's high debt levels [1][4] - The total budget for the Japanese government in fiscal year 2025 reaches a record high of 115.54 trillion yen, with social security costs rising to 38.28 trillion yen and debt repayment and interest payments reaching 28.22 trillion yen, indicating substantial fiscal pressure [4] Group 2 - Market analysts express concerns that the recent election results may lead to increased upward pressure on long-term bond yields due to potential fiscal expansion [4][5] - The upcoming bond auction is expected to be influenced by the government's fiscal policies and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the bond market until clearer fiscal policy direction is established [5] - The volatility risk surrounding the 40-year bond auction remains, as the government may continue to pursue expansionary policies to gain support from smaller political parties [5]

2025 年 7 月以来，黄金市场在多重矛盾交织中呈现 "高波动、高分化" 特征。据搜狐网数据显示，7 月 11 日国际现货黄金突破 3330 美元 / 盎司关 键阻力位后陷入震荡，最终收于 3313.05 美元 / 盎司，国内上海黄金交易所金价同步触及 766.1 元 / 克高位。这种 "冲高回落" 的走势，折射出地缘 政治不确定性与经济数据分化的双重影响 —— 中东局势持续紧张叠加全球制造业 PMI 弱于预期，推动避险资金持续流入黄金；而美国初请失业 金人数降至近两个月低点，又引发市场对美联储降息预期的博弈。 一、趋势演进：三大核心变量重塑市场格局 货币政策转向预期分化 美联储 6 月议息会议释放 "年内降息两次" 信号，但 7 月非农数据超预期后，市场对降息时点的分歧加剧。央视新闻报道显示，尽管美联储预计 2025 年底前降息两次，但主席鲍威尔强调 "预测将取决于数据"，这种政策模糊性导致黄金短期陷入多空拉锯。值得注意的是，美国债务规模突破 36 万亿美元，利息支出占财政预算比重达 20%，美元信用弱化趋势下，黄金作为替代储备资产的战略价值持续凸显。 地缘风险溢价的结构性变迁 中东冲突升级对金价的影响呈 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggests the possibility of interest rate cuts in July, despite strong employment data in June, indicating that current policy rates are "too high" [1][3] - Waller notes that inflation has "clearly cooled" and the labor market is becoming "stable," supporting a gradual shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [3] - His remarks are particularly significant as he is one of the few members advocating for rate cuts in the near term, positioning him as a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chair [3][4] Group 2 - Waller emphasizes that his support for a July rate cut is based purely on economic logic, not political influences, asserting that the central bank's decisions should be guided by inflation and employment targets [3] - The market response to Waller's statements adds uncertainty to the upcoming July FOMC meeting, with investors divided on the timing of a potential rate cut cycle starting in the second half of 2025 [3][4] - Waller's comments serve as an independent interpretation of economic data and may signal an early shift in monetary policy direction, warranting attention to the positions of other key Federal Reserve officials [4]

Group 1 - Bitcoin has surged past $116,500 with a 48% increase in 24-hour trading volume, indicating strong market momentum [2] - Whale addresses have accumulated over 23,000 BTC in the past week, with institutional holdings reaching a yearly high [2] - The derivatives market has seen open interest surpassing $38 billion, with market sentiment entering the "extreme greed" zone [2] Group 2 - The approval of the first batch of virtual asset spot ETFs by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission marks a significant regulatory development [3] - Ethereum Layer 2 total locked value has exceeded $45 billion, reflecting growing interest in scaling solutions [3] - AI and blockchain project financing in Q2 has increased by 215% quarter-over-quarter, indicating a surge in innovation [3] Group 3 - Historical data suggests a three-phase bull market progression: Bitcoin's initial surge, followed by mainstream coins, and finally an explosion of quality altcoins [3] - Current market selection criteria for alpha projects include a market cap between $1-5 billion, daily trading volume above $30 million, real revenue scenarios, and institutional holdings exceeding 15% [3] Group 4 - DHP is highlighted as a standout project in the Real World Asset (RWA) sector, with a unique value proposition and strong community engagement [3] - The project has achieved a 67% repurchase rate for physical products and has integrated with 12 DEXs and 8 DeFi protocols [3] - The first round of node subscription is set from July 12 to July 22, with a projected annual return of 20% and a static payback period of approximately 8 months [3] Group 5 - The market outlook suggests that with the onset of Federal Reserve easing, the crypto market is entering an optimal configuration period not seen in three years [4] - DHP's dual-driven model of "physical + digital" is expected to facilitate significant growth in the upcoming bull market [4] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the first round of node subscriptions starting July 12 for early participation benefits [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weak US dollar boosts market risk appetite, and base metal prices oscillate upwards. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand expectations are intertwined, with non - ferrous metals oscillating higher. Pay attention to structural opportunities and short - term long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider shorting opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US dollar index declines, and copper prices operate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The 2025 mid - year TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. May electrolytic copper output increased. Spot copper premiums rose, and copper inventories decreased [3]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, expectations of Fed rate cuts drive the US dollar index down, boosting copper prices. Supply - side raw material shortages lead to smelter production cuts. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventories support prices. There is also a risk of a short squeeze on the LME [4]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventories support copper prices. In the short term, copper may show high - level oscillations [4]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipt numbers remain low, and the alumina futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or slightly changed. An overseas transaction price increased. Warehouse receipts on the SHFE were flat [5][6]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, with rising production capacity and inventories, and a downward - moving spot price center. However, significant warehouse receipt reduction causes concerns. Long - term events have limited impact for now [5]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it oscillates weakly. Observe near - month warehouse receipt numbers. Consider shorting cautiously after the far - month contract rises further. Participate in reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase or there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the near - month contract [5]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed, and electrolytic aluminum prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories increased [7][12]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts ease, the US dollar weakens, and risk appetite recovers. Domestic inventories are accumulating, but the sustainability is uncertain. In the long term, aluminum demand depends on actual consumption [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, market sentiment improves, and prices may oscillate strongly. In the long term, consumption is a concern, and consider shorting on price rallies [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: The price of ADC12 decreased, and there are uncertainties in trade policies [9]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term costs are driven up by aluminum prices, but demand is seasonally weak. In the future, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may rise [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate weakly, and the futures market follows electrolytic aluminum. In the medium term, there is room for price recovery [10]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are slightly oversupplied, and pay attention to shorting opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Information Analysis**: Spot premiums vary in different regions, inventories increased, and a mine's production forecast is adjusted [10][13]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the situation is neutral. Supply is loosening, and smelters are profitable. Demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. In the long term, supply will increase while demand growth is limited [14]. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc production will increase, demand will weaken, and inventories will accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Scrap battery prices are stable, lead ingot prices decreased slightly, and inventories increased slightly [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, premiums are stable. Supply - side production may decrease slightly, and demand - side battery factory operating rates are recovering [15]. - **Outlook**: After tariff cuts, demand recovers, and supply may decrease. Cost support is strong, and lead prices will oscillate [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesian nickel enterprises' construction accelerates, and nickel prices oscillate widely in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: LME and SHFE nickel inventories changed, and there are multiple industry - related events such as project construction and policy changes [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Raw material supply may loosen, and there is an oversupply of electrolytic nickel with high inventories [20]. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment improves. Long - term positions can be closed. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [20]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market oscillates weakly. - **Information Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased, spot premiums exist, and there are industry - related events in Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policies [21][23]. - **Main Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening, and steel mills are under pressure. Production may decrease, and demand may weaken. Inventory accumulation is limited [26]. - **Outlook**: Cost support weakens, but price drops may lead to production cuts. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes. In the short term, it may maintain range - bound oscillations [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Warehouse receipts on the LME were flat, and those on the SHFE increased. Spot prices decreased [26][27]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic tin ore shortages are intensifying, and Indonesian export license replacement causes supply problems. Supply is expected to decrease, but demand may weaken in the second half of the year [27]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are supported by tight ore supply. The extent of the transmission of ore shortages to ingot supply will determine the price level in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [27].

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 21% to 20%, indicating a slight easing of inflation and signs of economic stabilization [1] - Experts believe that the rate cut will reduce domestic loan costs and support economic growth, with a decision on further rate cuts expected in December based on more economic data [1][5] - The Central Bank's discussions revealed differing opinions on whether to raise rates to 21% or tighten further to 22%, reflecting serious inflation risks and varying judgments on their impact [3] Group 2 - Despite tightening monetary policy, bond yields and money market rates have risen significantly, but the actual increase in rates has been less than expected due to rising inflation expectations [4] - The Central Bank's current monetary policy is considered insufficient to effectively curb price increases, with a high likelihood of another rate hike in the upcoming meeting [4][5] - December is seen as a critical juncture for monetary policy, with increased consumer activity and government spending, and more data available for assessing loan dynamics and inflation expectations [5] Group 3 - Analysts predict that inflation in Russia may continue to ease, laying the groundwork for a gradual shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [6][7] - The Moscow Exchange index rose to near a three-week high following the Central Bank's decision, indicating market optimism regarding potential changes in monetary policy [7] - The outlook for bank stocks and highly leveraged companies is positive, as rate cuts could lower interest expenses and debt burdens, enhancing growth and investment appeal [7]