证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 宏观点评 "东升"再强化—中美经贸会谈大超预期的 4 点理解 事件：5 月 12 日 15：00，中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，大幅降 低双边关税水平，并建立机制、继续就经贸关系进行协商。 核心观点：中美首轮经贸会谈取得实质性进展、大超市场预期，这将为 世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性，进一步凸显了中国制造的不可替 代性，也将进一步提升中国资产的投资价值。测算发现，最新美国对中 国的综合关税税率下降至 42.5%（2018 年以来 10.9%基础关税+20% 芬太尼关税+带豁免的 10%全球对等关税+25%的特定行业关税），预 计拖累我国出口 4.0-5.2 个百分点，拖累我国 GDP 0.5-0.7 个百分点， 指向我国经济下行压力仍大，预示不会改变我国扩张性政策的大方向， 尤其是全力扩内需、大力中央加杠杆，我们也继续提示"不宜等到花儿 枯萎了再浇水"。往后看，中美关税不确定性仍大，重点关注 3 大方面： 1）中美谈判进展，不排除出现关税反复的可能性；2）中美谈判议题， 可能主要针对关税和非关税壁垒、贸易再平衡、经济安全 ...

中金研究 中美会谈取得实质性进展，宣布缓解对彼此商品加征的关税。会谈结果好于预期，市场风险偏好明 显回升。短期来看，关税对于美国主要是供给冲击，对于中国主要是需求冲击，经贸会谈结果意味 着美国供给冲击缓解，中国需求冲击减弱。我们测算显示，最新美国有效关税率将从此前的28.4%下 降至15.5%，美国滞胀风险降低。最新关税下，中国出口下行风险得到较大缓解，后续中国国内经济 走势主要看宏观政策力度，尤其是财政政策力度。 点击小程序查看报告原文 北京时间5月12日下午3点，中美双方同步发表《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》[1] [2]。 根据声明内 容，自5月14日起，双方将仅保留对彼此商品加征的10%关税，暂停执行此前加征的24%关税，为期90 天，其余对等关税则全部取消。不过，今年2月和3月美国以芬太尼问题为由对中方额外征收的累计20% 关税并不在此次协议范围内。这意味着在协议实施后，美国对中国商品的关税将从145%降至30%，中 国对美国商品的关税则将从125%降至10%[3]。美国财政部长贝森特在记者会上表示，双方都不希望脱 钩，"我们都希望实现贸易平衡，美国将持续朝这一方向努力"[4]。根据声明，我们测算 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unique and record-breaking nature of the 60th Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, highlighting Warren Buffett's reflections and the transition of leadership to Greg Abel by the end of the year [1][2][3]. Group 1: Attendance and Records - A record attendance of 19,700 people was noted at the meeting, surpassing last year's record of 16,200 [2]. - Various companies associated with Berkshire Hathaway also reported record sales during the event, including See's Candies with sales of $317,000 compared to $283,000 last year [4], and Brooks with sales of $310,000, marking a historical high [5]. Group 2: Leadership Transition - Warren Buffett confirmed that Greg Abel will officially take over the leadership of Berkshire Hathaway by the end of the year, marking a significant transition for the company [1]. - The board of directors has implemented an age limit policy, reflecting a shift towards a more structured governance approach [15]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Buffett emphasized the importance of maintaining a balanced trade environment, discussing his past proposal of "import certificates" as a means to address trade deficits, which he believes is crucial for long-term growth [35][36]. - The company holds a significant cash reserve of over $300 billion, which Buffett attributes to practical considerations rather than a strategic move to prepare for leadership transition [56][58]. Group 4: International Investments - Buffett discussed the successful investments in Japan, highlighting the strong performance of Japanese companies and the intention to maintain long-term relationships with them [41][45][52]. - The company is focused on building partnerships with Japanese trading companies, viewing these relationships as opportunities for future growth [48][51]. Group 5: Real Estate vs. Stock Investments - Buffett expressed a preference for stock investments over real estate, citing the complexities and time-consuming nature of real estate transactions compared to the efficiency of stock trading [66][70]. - He noted that the stock market offers more opportunities and flexibility, making it a more attractive option for investment [67][72]. Group 6: AI and Insurance - The potential impact of artificial intelligence on the insurance industry was discussed, with a focus on how it could reshape risk assessment and pricing [75]. - Buffett indicated that while Berkshire Hathaway is exploring AI applications, the company prefers to observe and understand the technology before making significant investments [76].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Chinese exports showed a year-over-year growth of 10.1% in real terms for Q1 2025, while nominal exports grew by 5.6% due to lower export prices across all categories [7] - The report anticipates a significant slowdown in export volume growth in the coming months if tariffs are maintained, projecting a decline of 5% in total goods export volume for 2025 [7][50] - Chinese nominal imports fell by 7.2% year-over-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to decreasing import volumes [25] - The current account surplus is expected to decrease to 1.6% of GDP in 2025 from 2.2% in 2024, driven by a narrower goods trade surplus and a widening services trade deficit [7][55] Summary by Sections Exports - Chinese exports remained solid in Q1 2025, with a 10.1% year-over-year growth in real terms, while nominal exports grew by 5.6% [7] - The decline in export prices was broad-based, affecting all categories, with the most significant increases in real terms for stone/glass/metals and transportation equipment [7][21] - Exports to Africa saw the highest year-over-year increase in Q1 [18] - New export orders under both NBS and Caixin manufacturing PMIs fell sharply in April amid higher US tariffs [23] Imports - Nominal imports decreased by 7.2% year-over-year in Q1 2025, with the weakest growth in stone/glass/metals due to lower gold imports [25] - Mechanical machinery and electric equipment saw the strongest import growth, while import prices for stone/glass/metals increased the most [25][39] - Imports fell for all regions except Japan, Korea & Taiwan, and ASEAN [33] Current Account and Balance of Payments - The report projects a decline in China's goods trade surplus to 3.7% of GDP in 2025 from 4.0% in 2024 [7] - The broad balance of payments (BBOP) is expected to remain unchanged at 0.4% of GDP in 2025, with significant net FDI outflows [8][57] - The current account balance is projected to narrow, reflecting a combination of a smaller goods trade surplus and a wider services trade deficit [55]

编者按 沃伦·巴菲特精神矍铄。 拄着拐杖，一身正装地进入伯克希尔股东大会的现场。在开始演讲前，他还把桌前最爱的两听可口可乐特意放在话筒前面醒目位置，并举起右掌放在额头 上远眺了下他的盛大舞台。 满满当当的会场，比任何一届都要人多。 巴菲特开场说，这是他第60次参加的会议，应该是他迄今为止规模最大、最好的一次。"我们在各个方面都创下了纪录"。 只是在5小时问答最后，巴菲特透露说，我现在想借这个机会，提前和大家谈一件事。 "现在是格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）应该在年底正式接任伯克希尔首席执行官的时候了。我计划在明天的董事会上提出这个建议。我相信董事会会全票支 持这个决定。" 巴菲特紧接着明确表示，他不会卖出任何一股伯克希尔的股票，因为在阿贝尔的领导下，"伯克希尔的前景会比我自己领导时更好"。 "当然，将来有可能出现一个可以大量投资的机会。如果那一刻到来，我仍可能会出来出点主意。" 伴随这个消息透露并宣告股东会结束时，全场响起了经久不息的掌声……是的，经久不息，以至于巴菲特不得不补充一句话来回应"安可"："大家的反应可 以有两种解读，但我就当是'惊喜'好了。谢谢大家。" 显然，现场的掌声很复杂，感激、感动、 ...

Core Viewpoints - The annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting highlighted key discussions on tariffs, U.S. fiscal policy, stock market volatility, artificial intelligence, Japanese investments, cash reserves, and the importance of patience in investment [2][3]. Group 1: Tariffs and Global Trade - Buffett emphasized that trade should not be used as a weapon and that protectionist policies are a serious mistake [2][10]. - He believes that trade balance is beneficial for global prosperity and that the U.S. should avoid accumulating excessive trade deficits [5][10]. Group 2: U.S. Fiscal Policy - Buffett expressed concern over U.S. fiscal policy, stating that irresponsible government actions could lead to frightening currency devaluation [2][56]. Group 3: Stock Market Volatility - Recent fluctuations in the U.S. stock market are not considered significant compared to past market crashes, and Buffett does not view the current situation as a severe bear market [2][3]. Group 4: Artificial Intelligence - Buffett is cautious about investing heavily in AI, preferring to let his vice chairman, Ajit Jain, make decisions in this area [2][34]. Group 5: Japanese Investments - Berkshire will not sell any Japanese stocks, maintaining a long-term investment strategy in this market [2][12][17]. Group 6: Cash Reserves - The company holds over $300 billion in cash and short-term investments, which is significantly higher than the historical average, allowing for potential future investment opportunities [2][22][28]. Group 7: Investment Philosophy - Buffett highlighted the importance of analyzing a company's balance sheet over its income statement, as balance sheets reveal more about a company's financial health [3][8]. - He advised young investors to surround themselves with respected individuals to accelerate their success [3][9]. Group 8: Future Leadership Transition - Buffett announced plans for Greg Abel to take over as CEO by the end of the year, emphasizing that he will remain available for support but will not interfere in daily operations [2][86][89].

巴菲特开场说，这是他第60次参加的会议，应该是他迄今为止规模最大、最好的一次。 "我们在各个方 面都创下了纪录"。 沃伦·巴菲特精神矍铄。 拄着拐杖，一身正装地进入伯克希尔股东大会的现场。在开始演讲前，他还把桌前最爱的两听可口可乐 特意放在话筒前面醒目位置，并举起右掌放在额头上远眺了下他的盛大舞台。 满满当当的会场，比任何一届都要人多。 只是在5小时问答最后，巴菲特透露说，我现在想借这个机会，提前和大家谈一件事。 "现在是格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）应该在年底正式接任伯克希尔首席执行官的时候了。我计划在明 天的董事会上提出这个建议。我相信董事会会全票支持这个决定。" （点击阅读： 《万字特稿｜认识下巴菲特的指定接班人：格雷格·阿贝尔》 ） 巴菲特紧接着明确表示，他 不会卖出任何一股伯克希尔的股票， 因为在阿贝尔的领导下，"伯克希尔 的前景会比我自己领导时更好"。 "当然，将来有可能出现一个可以大量投资的机会。如果那一刻到来，我仍可能会出来出点主意。" 伴随这个消息透露并宣告股东会结束时，全场响起了经久不息的掌声……是的，经久不息，以至于巴菲 特不得不补充一句话来回应"安可"："大家的反应可以有两种解读 ...

美国财政部长贝森特近期在CNBC的访谈中，将中美经贸失衡的矛头直指中国。 这位金融出身的官员用数字构筑逻辑："中国对美出口额是美国的五倍，125%的关税不可持续。"其言 论背后折射出美国经济政策的深层困境——在保护主义与市场规律之间，华盛顿正陷入难以自洽的逻辑 漩涡。 数据揭示的真相往往比政客的言辞更具说服力。美国对华贸易逆差中，70%源于跨国企业在华产业链布 局。苹果公司每年从中国进口价值500亿美元的电子产品，特斯拉上海超级工厂贡献其全球产能的半 数。这种利益交织的产业格局，使得所谓"不可持续"的关税实际成为悬在美企头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。 贝森特透露的"禁运威胁"更像心理战术，毕竟当美国零售商货架上的中国商品占比仍达18%时，任何极 端措施都将触发多米诺骨牌效应。 当前僵局实质是全球化演进中的阵痛。中国完备的工业体系与市场规模形成独特引力，即便在逆全球化 浪潮中，2023年外资制造业项目落地数仍同比增长17%。美国的困境在于，既要维持技术霸权又要享受 分工红利，这种"既要又要"的悖论终将接受市场规律的审判。或许正如IMF最新报告所言："21世纪的 贸易平衡，不应是简单的数字消长，而是价值链的协同进化。"当 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since April, hot-rolled coils have shown a weak trend with short-term spikes followed by oscillations and declines. The tariff policies of the Trump administration in the United States have exceeded expectations, putting pressure on market sentiment and causing further drops in hot-rolled coil prices [3][5][24]. - This year, the supply of hot-rolled coils remains at a relatively high level, and the demand for plates, especially from domestic sources, is strong. However, due to the impact of tariffs, the growth rate of overall plate demand may be weaker than last year, making it difficult for steel prices to rise and more likely to fall [3][23][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Since April, hot-rolled coils have short-term spikes followed by oscillations and declines. Earlier in the year, steel had low inventory due to pessimistic expectations and active de-stocking of building materials. With approaching important meetings, market sentiment improved, and raw material prices strengthened, driving up hot-rolled coil prices. After the implementation of foreign tariff policies, prices dropped further [3][5][24]. - As hot-rolled coil prices declined, spot profits weakened slightly while futures profits were maintained. With policy stimuli, far-month contracts of hot-rolled coils performed better [6]. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - In April, the supply of hot-rolled coils remained at a relatively high level, with the weekly output reaching a maximum of 3.3 million tons at the beginning of the year, and the supply of plates such as cold-rolled coils and medium-thick plates was also high year-on-year. The output of plates recovered quickly around the Spring Festival, indicating an early and strong start of plate demand [3][10][24]. - The output of rebar decreased before the Spring Festival, resulting in low inventory. After the Spring Festival, as rebar production capacity recovered, the overall steel output exceeded that of the same period last year, testing the terminal demand [11]. Inventory - In April, the inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased, with both the inventory level around the Spring Festival and the inventory reduction rate during the peak season lower than last year. Despite strong supply, the significant inventory reduction indicates a notable increase in demand [12]. - The inventory of rebar decreased year-on-year, but the inventory reduction rate after the Spring Festival was slow, indicating weak demand. The trend of strong plates and weak building materials continued [16]. Demand - The production capacity of terminal plate demand in industries such as home appliances, automobiles, and ships has been continuously strengthening, driving up plate demand. In March 2025, the national air conditioner output increased by about 9.3% year-on-year, and automobile production increased by 12%. However, export orders from home appliance enterprises are starting to decline, indicating the impact of tariffs on terminal exports [3][17][25]. - In the first quarter, the export volume of steel continued to increase year-on-year, reaching a new high in March. The US tariff policy affects both direct steel exports from China and the exports of home appliances and automobiles, directly reducing steel demand. After the implementation of the tariff policy, China's exports may shift to regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, but it will take time to reach a new trade balance [20][23][25]. Summary and Outlook - The situation of hot-rolled coils in April is similar to the market review, with short-term spikes followed by oscillations and declines, affected by tariff policies. The supply remains high, and the demand for plates is strong domestically but weakening in exports due to tariffs, making it difficult for steel prices to rise [24][25].

美国方面的声明显示，美国贸易代表格里尔与越南合作伙伴同意推动实现贸易平衡。 ...