成绩单来了。 全国社会保障基金理事会于9月30日发布《全国社会保障基金2024年度报告》（下称《报告》）。数据 显示，2024年社保基金交出亮眼成绩单，不仅年度投资收益额达2184.18亿元、投资收益率8.10%，更实 现长期业绩稳健，自成立以来年均投资收益率7.39%，累计投资收益额突破1.9万亿元，达19009.98亿 元，进一步夯实国家社会保障战略储备基础。 全国社会保障基金理事会有关负责人表示，受国内国际多重因素影响，2024年国内股市前低后高，国际 资本市场分化加大。社保基金会加强市场研判，在资本市场波动中，维持股票风险敞口基本稳定，获取 了A股市场反弹带来的收益；靠前配置、加大配置固定收益资产，较好把握了利率持续下行带来的投资 机会；积极加大股权投资力度，优化海外投资布局，较好发挥了资产配置分散投资风险、稳定提升基金 整体收益的作用。 2024基金投资收益率8.1% 从投资管理模式看，直接投资资产9485.76亿元，占资产总额的28.55%；委托投资资产23738.86亿元， 占比71.45%，委托专业机构运作仍是主要方式。 《报告》披露，2024年末全国社保基金资产总额达33224.62亿元，基 ...

Core Insights - The National Social Security Fund achieved a remarkable investment return of 218.42 billion yuan in 2024, with an investment yield of 8.10%, and a cumulative investment return exceeding 1.9 trillion yuan since its establishment [1][2] Investment Performance - The total assets of the National Social Security Fund reached 3.322 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with total equity amounting to 2.9128 trillion yuan [2] - The fund's investment management is characterized by a high proportion of entrusted investments, with direct investments accounting for 28.55% and entrusted investments for 71.45% of total assets [2] - Domestic investments dominate, comprising 86.82% of total assets, while overseas investments account for 13.18% [2] - The fund realized a total income of 43.65 billion yuan in 2024, with a realized return rate of 1.64%, and significant gains from fair value changes of trading assets amounting to 174.77 billion yuan [2] Investment Strategy - The fund employs a comprehensive asset allocation system, including strategic and tactical asset allocation, as well as asset rebalancing [4] - The focus on long-term investment in domestic stocks is emphasized, leveraging the advantages of long-term capital to navigate market fluctuations [4] - The fund actively adjusts its overseas investment structure and enhances risk prevention measures for foreign assets [4] Real Economy Support - The fund is committed to investing in key sectors and major projects aligned with national strategies, supporting regional coordinated development [5] - Fixed income investments are strategically increased in response to declining interest rates, with a focus on bonds related to national strategies and sustainable development [5] Professional Management - The fund demonstrates a mature investment management capability, effectively balancing risks while contributing to national strategic goals [6] - The integration of policy and market dynamics allows the fund to adhere to regulatory requirements while actively participating in the real economy [6]

从地域分布看，境内投资资产28846.36亿元，占比86.82%，为基金收益贡献核心支撑；境外投资资产4378.26亿元，占比13.18%，海外布局进一步优化。 从收益构成看，2024年基金已实现收益额436.51亿元（已实现收益率1.64%），交易性资产公允价值变动额1747.67亿元，后者成为年度收益的重要增量， 反映出社保基金在资本市场波动中把握权益资产机会的能力。 南开大学商学院会计系副教授赵乐告诉记者，在面临外部市场压力与资本市场波动的情形下，凸显出社保投资基金较强的抗风险能力与获益能力。从投资结 构看，多元投资配置有效分散风险，累计投资收益突破1.9万亿元，进一步夯实了社会保障战略储备基础。 成绩单来了。 全国社会保障基金理事会于9月30日发布《全国社会保障基金2024年度报告》（下称《报告》）。数据显示，2024年社保基金交出亮眼成绩单，不仅年度投 资收益额达2184.18亿元、投资收益率8.10%，更实现长期业绩稳健，自成立以来年均投资收益率7.39%，累计投资收益额突破1.9万亿元，达19009.98亿 元，进一步夯实国家社会保障战略储备基础。 全国社会保障基金理事会有关负责人表示，受国内国 ...

当深圳迈过"十四五"收官节点、迈向"十五五"高质量发展新征程，城市核心资产价值逻辑正被重塑。 自2024年7月开盘以来，京基·华樾住宅作为约320万方蔡屋围大城更新首发钜作，迅速引爆市场，连续 蝉联罗湖住宅销售三冠王，目前住宅剩余少量建面约95-222㎡精选房源，臻席递减。强劲势头之下，京 基·华樾迎来二期公寓样本间开放。 随着公寓市场历经供需重构与需求迭代，占据罗湖-福田双CBD核芯、建面约48-83㎡70年产权真奢寓的 京基·华樾，将以更纯粹的奢居体验和更稳健的资产属性，为市场提供穿越周期的资产新选择。 双芯赋能 周期更迭中 公寓市场的价值回归与需求升级 "十四五"期间，深圳公寓市场完成从"增量扩张"到"存量提质"的转型。随着新批商务公寓项目停批，存 量市场分化加剧，兼具居住属性与资产安全性的优质公寓，成为市场新宠。 这一需求转变，源于"十五五"规划导向下的价值共识重构。投资者与自住客不再单纯追低价，更看重资 产"抗风险能力"与"长效收益性"，70年产权的权属稳定性、核心地段的资源稀缺性、产品设计的居住舒 适度、租金回报的确定性，成为衡量公寓价值的四大核心维度。数据显示，当前深圳优质核心区公寓租 金回报率 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - After the Federal Reserve's September meeting, investors reduced their short positions on the US dollar, with speculative net short positions decreasing from 12,900 to 10,400 contracts, a reduction of 2,500 contracts, representing a decline of 7.9% in total positions[10] - In Q2 2025, the debt leverage ratio across various sectors in the US fell, with household debt leverage dropping to 68.8%, the lowest since Q3 1999[11] - The ratio of US household net wealth to disposable income increased to 7.8 times, reaching the highest level since Q3 2024, with net wealth rising to $176.3 trillion[15] Group 2: Investment Insights - As of July 2025, foreign investors held a record $9.16 trillion in US Treasury securities, an increase of $32 billion from June[16] - US pension funds increased their equity holdings by $900 billion in Q2 2025, bringing total equity holdings to $8.9 trillion[21] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index was 4.3% as of September 26, 2025, indicating potential for valuation uplift compared to historical averages[22] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was 31 basis points as of September 26, 2025, up 61 basis points from December 2016[27] - The copper-gold price ratio fell to 2.7, while the offshore RMB exchange rate rose to 7.1, indicating diverging signals in demand dynamics[34] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds in China was 28.2, above the average level of the past 16 years, suggesting enhanced attractiveness of equity assets[36]

仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | | | | | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | 日 度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 | 月庚涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 9 | | BB | 18.50% | 17.43% | 航运 | 集运欧线 | 1115 | -2.11% | -2.11% | -11.58% | -16.73% | | 4% | 10.67% | 11.13% | | 黄金 | 866.52 | 1.22% | 1.22% | 10.05% | 12.63% | | 18 | 23.35% | 27.04% | 贵金属 | 白银 | 6860 I | 2.89% | 2.89% | 16 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】 —Charles A Jaffe 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2025 年 09 月 30 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 ❖ 投资摘要： It's not your salary that makes you rich; it's your spending habits. 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《"9·24"一周年——总量"创"辩第 112 期》 2025-09-29 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 43 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-09-23 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 42 期：兑现降息预期， 否认降息周期——9 月美联储议息会议点评 2025 年第 6 期》 2025-09-18 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 41 期：Rider ...

此外，BII也关注人工智能主题在全球市场的发展，认为AI将持续成为驱动股市的重要因素。Powell补 充：AI不仅是科技股的催化剂，也正逐步渗透至其他产业，成为全球投资的重要主题。 展望未来一周，BII将密切关注美国就业数据的公布。报告指出，若美国劳动市场未出现明显疲弱，美 联储可能不会如市场预期般迅速降息。该行指目前通胀仍具黏性，利率可能维持高档更久，这将影响资 产配置与市场走向。 贝莱德投资研究院(BlackRock Investment Institute,BII)最新发布《每周市场评论》，认为日本股市仍是全 球投资组合中的首选之一。报告指出，日本经济稳健成长，加上持续推动有利股东的企业改革，使日本 股市表现强劲，BII维持对日本股票的超配立场。 BII中东及亚太区首席投资策略师Ben Powell表示，该行看好日本的长期潜力，企业治理改革正在发酵， 薪资上升亦有助于消费支出。即使日元近期贬值至34年新低，仍认为这不会阻碍日本股市的上升趋势。 报告指出，日本股市近期屡创新高，与美国股市徘徊在历史高位形成鲜明对比。新兴市场股票亦在今年 表现亮眼，成为全球表现最佳的资产之一。 在全球利率政策分歧的背景下，日 ...

2025年9月26日，中信期货2025年秋季策略会圆满收官。本次策略会以"潮汐涌动.破卷立新"为主题，采 用线上会议的形式举行。通过7大论坛，中信期货研究所的研究员们以多元视角解析市场，多维度深挖 投资机遇，针对四季度及2026年大宗商品、权益、汇率等期货及衍生品领域展开深入剖析，助力投资者 多维掘金、稳健布局。 宏观与贵金属论坛：稳中求进|宏观趋势与资产配置 中信期货研究所宏观与国际研究部总经理姜婧女士表示，四季度宏观和大类资产基调是"稳中求进"，政 策与基本面对冲效应使得宏观环境偏"稳"，资产配置策略偏"进"。从国内层面看，四季度稳增长政策聚 焦三大方向：一是5000亿元政策性金融工具，二是货币政策大概率实施降准，三是"十五五"规划前瞻。 从海外维度看，美国经济动能趋疲，但政策"再校准"将提供支撑，未来1-2个季度，全球宽松流动性与 财政杠杆带动的复苏预期，将为风险资产提供支撑。 中信期货研究所宏观研究组资深研究员朱善颖女士聚焦贵金属，强调四季度黄金震荡偏强，是长期战略 配置窗口。尽管近两年实际利率与金价相关性降低，但受降息周期重启和美联储独立性风险影响，美国 实际利率下行周期中黄金上涨从未缺席。长期来看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive dynamics between China Merchants Bank (CMB) and Ant Group in the fund distribution market, highlighting how Ant has surpassed CMB in various metrics and the strategies each company employs to maintain or enhance their market positions [5][10][11]. Group 1: Market Position and Performance - As of mid-2024, Ant Group has significantly outperformed CMB in fund distribution, with Ant's equity fund holdings at 8,229 billion yuan compared to CMB's 4,920 billion yuan, marking a 40% lower performance for CMB [11][14]. - CMB has historically been a leader in fund distribution but is now facing the risk of being left behind as Ant Group continues to grow its market share [10][11]. - The shift in market dynamics is attributed to Ant's larger user base and more aggressive online strategies, which have allowed it to capture a significant portion of the fund distribution market [22][48]. Group 2: Competitive Strategies - CMB has relied on its strong retail banking presence and high-net-worth clientele, but it has struggled to adapt to the rapid changes in the fund distribution landscape [22][49]. - Ant Group has leveraged its vast user base on Alipay, with over 1 billion total users and 3 billion daily active users, to enhance its fund distribution capabilities [22][48]. - CMB's strategy includes focusing on high-net-worth clients and enhancing its wealth management services, while Ant is expanding its offerings in index funds and flexible investment products [46][47]. Group 3: Challenges and Responses - CMB is facing challenges due to a decline in wealth management income and increased competition from Ant, which has led to a strategic reassessment within CMB [29][30]. - The recent regulatory changes that lower fund sales fees pose additional challenges for CMB, which relies on its high-cost sales model [49]. - CMB is attempting to strengthen its asset allocation capabilities and improve customer experience through enhanced advisory services and product offerings [37][39]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The competition between CMB and Ant Group is expected to solidify, with CMB focusing on high-net-worth clients and complex financial products, while Ant continues to dominate the mass market with its online services [50][51]. - The article suggests that CMB must leverage its strengths in personalized service and high-net-worth client management to maintain its market position amidst increasing pressure from Ant [49][50].