Market Overview - On September 10, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3827 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22 points, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.38% to 12557.68 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 20,042 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[3] Sector Performance - Industries such as mining, communication services, gaming, and cultural media performed well, while energy metals, jewelry, wind power equipment, and batteries lagged[3] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, with notable increases in communication, tourism, and cultural media sectors[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.53 times and 46.83 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The trading volume has consistently exceeded 20,000 billion yuan in recent days, indicating strong market activity[3] Economic and Policy Environment - The State Council has emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery, with multiple favorable policies in place to support the market[3] - Monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on structural policies[3] Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as communication equipment, semiconductors, electronic components, and consumer electronics[3] - Global capital is flowing into the A-share market, with domestic savings increasingly shifting towards capital markets, providing a continuous source of incremental funds[3]

国债期货日报 2025/09/10 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.348 | 102.39 | -0.042 | TS合约持仓(手） | 73128 | 72585 | 543 | | TF2512 | 105.445 | 105.58 | -0.135 | TF合约持仓(手） | 144218 | 145470 | -1252 | | T2512 | 107.505 | 107.785 | -0.28 | T合约持仓(手） | 230673 | 224582 | 6091 | | TL2512 | 114.87 | 115.76 | -0.89 | TL合约持仓(手） | 153937 | 144317 | 9620 | | TS基差（CTD) | -0.0418 | -0.03 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pricing power of funds in the bond market has further increased, and there are still short - term long - trading opportunities. The high correlation between funds and interest rate trends has been further strengthened this year, and low interest rate fluctuations imply the enhancement of funds' pricing power in the bond market. Some "unexplained" interest rate increases may be due to the lack of bond - receiving institutions. The impact of fund institutional behavior on interest rate fluctuations may further expand, and short - term redemption pressure is controllable [2][11][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Correlation between funds and interest rates**: The high correlation between funds and interest rate trends is not new. Since 2024, the behavior of funds and interest rate trends have shown high correlation, and this year, the low - level fluctuation of interest rates has implied the further improvement of funds' pricing power in the bond market, which may be related to bank wealth management outsourcing [2][11][12] - **"Unexplained" interest rate increases**: This phenomenon may be related to the lack of bond - receiving institutions. Insurance institutions have reduced their allocation of national bonds since 2024, and rural commercial banks' intention to buy more as the interest rate adjusts is gradually decreasing [15] 3.2 Yield Curve - **Treasury bonds**: Short - term yields increased, while medium - and long - term yields decreased. The 1Y yield increased by 3bp, the 3Y yield increased by 1bp, the 5Y yield decreased by 2bp, the 7Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 15Y yield increased by 3bp, and the 30Y yield decreased by 3bp [17] - **China Development Bank bonds**: Yields decreased overall. The 1Y yield increased by 1bp, the 3Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 5Y yield decreased by about 2bp, the 7Y yield decreased by 2bp, the 10Y yield decreased by about 1bp, the 15Y yield decreased by 2bp, and the 30Y yield decreased by 1bp [17] 3.3 Term Spread - **Treasury bonds**: The interest spread increased, and the short - term spread narrowed while the long - term spread was differentiated. The 1Y - DR001 interest spread remained flat overall, and the 1Y - DR007 interest spread increased by 10bp [20] - **China Development Bank bonds**: The interest spread increased, and the short - term spread narrowed while the long - term spread was differentiated. The 1Y - DR001 interest spread increased by 2bp, and the 1Y - DR007 interest spread increased by about 8bp [22] 3.4 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation - **Leverage ratio**: It decreased to 107.14%. From September 1st to September 5th, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated and increased within the week. As of September 5th, it was about 107.14%, up 0.30pct from last Friday and 0.07pct from Monday [25] - **Average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase**: From September 1st to September 5th, the average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was about 7.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.24 trillion yuan compared with last week. The average daily trading volume of overnight pledged repurchase was 7.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.43 trillion yuan month - on - month. The average overnight trading volume accounted for 88.35%, an increase of 2.89pct month - on - month [28][33] - **Funding situation**: Bank - based fund outflows first increased and then decreased. The main fund inflow party was funds, and the outflows of money market funds first decreased and then increased. DR007 and R007 fluctuated and decreased [34] 3.5 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median duration**: The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds decreased. As of September 5th, the median duration (de - leveraged) was 2.77 years, a decrease of 0.04 years from last Friday; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.95 years, a decrease of 0.16 years from last Friday [45] - **Duration of different types of bond funds**: The median duration (including leverage) of interest - rate bond funds decreased to 3.75 years, a decrease of 0.16 years from last Friday; the median duration (including leverage) of credit bond funds decreased to 2.72 years, a decrease of 0.12 years from last Friday [51] 3.6 Category Strategy Comparison - **Sino - US interest rate spread**: It widened overall. The 1Y spread widened by 23bp, the 2Y spread widened by about 12bp, the 3Y spread widened by 13bp, the 5Y spread widened by 8bp, the 7Y spread widened by 11bp, the 10Y spread widened by 11bp, and the 30Y spread widened by 7bp [55] - **Implied tax rate**: The short - term spread narrowed, and the long - term spread was differentiated. As of September 5th, the 1Y spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds narrowed by about 1bp, the 3Y spread narrowed by 2bp, the 5Y spread changed by less than 1bp, the 7Y spread narrowed by 1bp, the 10Y spread widened by 1bp, the 15Y spread narrowed by 5bp, and the 30Y spread widened by 2bp [56] 3.7 Bond Lending Balance Changes - On September 5th, the lending concentration of active 10Y treasury bonds, active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and active 30Y treasury bonds increased; the lending concentration of the second - active 10Y China Development Bank bonds decreased, and the lending concentration of the second - active 10Y treasury bonds remained unchanged. In terms of institutions, the lending of large - scale banks and other institutions decreased, while that of small - and medium - sized banks and securities firms increased [57]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, corporate earnings have not significantly improved. After repeated digestion of previous policy benefits, market bullish sentiment has cooled. There is a risk of adjustment in stock indices due to profit - taking pressure. Gold has accelerated its short - term rise driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [42]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Gold may face a deep - adjustment risk due to the fading of uncertainties from US tariff policies, the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the repeated digestion of the Fed's September interest rate cut expectations [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months. Industrial production expansion accelerated, demand improved marginally, but external demand faced significant downward pressure, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises remained weak [3][4]. 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - **Corporate Earnings**: Due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises face great operating pressure. They cannot transfer production costs to end - consumers, resulting in a long - standing phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits. Some industries are still in the active de - stocking phase, with finished - product inventories continuing to decline [18]. - **Funding and Liquidity**: The margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly. The central bank conducted 1.0684 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan [22]. 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data - **Inflation and Consumption**: The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: 2.8%), rising for 3 consecutive months and reaching a new high since February. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% month - on - month, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month. US tariff policies are affecting prices, suppressing consumer confidence and consumption expenditure [28]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold futures' warehouse receipts and inventory have been rising, indicating an increase in physical gold delivery demand and a resurgence of bullish sentiment in the market [39]. 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - **Stock Indices**: Although the official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in July, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, with insufficient demand being the main contradiction. The previous sharp rise in stock index futures was driven by multiple factors such as policies, funds, and sentiment. However, the inflection point of corporate earnings growth has not arrived. As policy benefits are repeatedly digested, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and short - term adjustments are expected [41]. - **Gold**: Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, suggesting that a September interest rate cut is highly likely. The controversy over Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has intensified market concerns about central bank independence, driving up the gold price to a new record high. Attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [41].

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has increased by 0.57%, with the latest price at 121.62 yuan as of September 4, 2025 [1] - The trading volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF was active, with a turnover of 15.96% and a transaction value of 4.853 billion yuan, while the average daily transaction value over the past month was 10.203 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached a new high of 30.387 billion yuan, despite a recent net outflow of 79.6382 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 229.1 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan on that day [1] - Tianfeng Securities anticipates that the liquidity will remain reasonably ample, supported by increased fiscal spending and effective central bank measures, despite potential disturbances in mid to late September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity in the market through various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos, to maintain a stable and reasonably ample liquidity environment in September, despite significant reverse repo maturities and other factors affecting the funding landscape [1][6][7]. Group 1: Market Operations - From September 1 to 5, over 2 trillion yuan in reverse repos are set to mature, marking the highest weekly maturity volume this year [1]. - On September 3, the PBOC conducted a 229.1 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan for the day [1][4]. - Despite the net withdrawal, the overall funding rates remained stable, with the overnight Shibor slightly rising to 1.316% and the 7-day Shibor at 1.433% as of September 3 [6]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - Analysts suggest that the liquidity in August was relatively abundant, with net injections from reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) exceeding July levels, contributing to the large reverse repo maturities in September [6][7]. - The market is expected to maintain a stable and low-interest rate environment, as the PBOC is likely to continue its reverse repo operations to guide short-term market rates [8]. - Factors such as the issuance of government bonds and the high volume of interbank certificates of deposit maturing in September are anticipated to influence the liquidity landscape, but overall, the funding environment is expected to remain reasonably ample [7][8].

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 229.1 billion yuan, with both the bidding and winning amounts at 229.1 billion yuan, and the operation interest rate set at 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 379.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan [1] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with the overnight Shibor rising by 0.20 basis points to 1.3160%, and the 7-day Shibor also increasing by 0.20 basis points to 1.4330%. In contrast, the 14-day Shibor decreased by 0.90 basis points to 1.4860% [2][4] - The 1-month Shibor was reported at 1.5170%, up by 0.10 basis points, while the 3-month Shibor stood at 1.5500%, also up by 0.10 basis points [2] Repo Market Activity - In the interbank pledged repo market, the 7-day rates showed mixed results, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates remaining unchanged at 1.3141% and 1.3543%, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates increased by 0.4 basis points and 0.2 basis points to 1.4415% and 1.4644% [4] - The trading volume for DR001 and R001 increased by 6.4 billion yuan and 126.4 billion yuan, respectively, while DR007 and R007 saw decreases in trading volume by 13.3 billion yuan and 362.7 billion yuan [4] Market Liquidity - The liquidity in the market was described as generally loose, with overnight rates trading around 1.30% to 1.45% throughout the day, indicating a stable and balanced liquidity environment [8] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 88, with a total issuance volume of 150.78 billion yuan, reflecting active trading sentiment as market rates declined [9] Private Banking Sector Growth - Several banks reported double-digit growth in the number of private banking clients and assets under management (AUM) in the first half of the year, with 15 banks collectively surpassing 1.63 million clients, an increase of nearly 150,000 clients [11] - Major state-owned banks, including ICBC, ABC, CCB, and BOC, each reported AUM exceeding 3 trillion yuan, while Industrial Bank's AUM surpassed 1 trillion yuan, marking its entry into the "trillion club" for private banking [11] Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the liquidity in the market will remain reasonably ample, supported by increased fiscal spending and effective central bank measures, despite potential disturbances in mid-September [11]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests a band - trading approach. It notes that on September 3, 2025, treasury bond futures rebounded as expected. Given the current situation where the 10 - year treasury bond yield has returned to 1.75% and the bond market lacks catalytic factors, caution should be exercised regarding the further upside potential. It advises against chasing high prices, setting profit - taking when bottom - fishing, and keeping a small long position at low levels [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Market Performance - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher, rose in the morning and then declined, fluctuated in the afternoon, and rose again at the end of the session, with all varieties closing up. Spot bond yields generally declined. There was a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion from the open market, and the funds were loose with DR001 at 1.31% [1]. - The A - share market continued to decline with a large adjustment range on this day. The morning rebound in the stock market reduced the bond market's gains, but the stock market's inability to stop the decline in the afternoon led to an expansion of the bond market's gains at the end of the session. The stock market had a volume - shrinking adjustment, and if it enters a range - bound state in the future, its impact on the bond market will gradually weaken [2]. 2. Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 03 Price | 2025 - 09 - 02 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 03 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 02 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.44 | 102.41 | 0.03 | 75575 | 74372 | 1203 | | TF2512 | 105.69 | 105.55 | 0.14 | 139553 | 138200 | 1353 | | T2512 | 108.12 | 107.93 | 0.19 | 213046 | 205357 | 7689 | | TL2512 | 117.03 | 116.61 | 0.42 | 142705 | 140312 | 2393 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0225 | - 0.04 | 0.0175 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 25604 | 21492 | 4112 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0846 | 0.0256 | 0.059 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 62433 | 52692 | 9741 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.4403 | 0.3548 | 0.0855 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 86857 | 60757 | 26100 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.7408 | 0.5696 | 0.1712 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 156936 | 116176 | 40760 | [3] 3. Other Information - U.S. technology stocks led the decline in the U.S. stock market, and the 30 - year treasury bond yields of the UK, Germany, and France reached multi - year highs. Gold futures broke through $3600, hitting a record high [2]. - Trump stated that he would request the Supreme Court to make a "quick ruling" on the global tariff case. If he wins, the stock market will rise sharply; otherwise, it will experience a huge shock. Bessent predicted that the Supreme Court would support Trump's tariff policy but was also considering alternative plans [2].

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing increased attention on liquidity as multiple factors contribute to a funding gap in September, but overall liquidity is expected to remain reasonably ample with low volatility in interest rates [2][9]. Group 1: Market Liquidity and Central Bank Operations - In early September, the central bank conducted reverse repos but faced a net withdrawal of funds due to the amount of reverse repos maturing exceeding the amount of new operations [4][5]. - The central bank's operations resulted in a cumulative net withdrawal of 2.558 billion yuan over the first two days of September, with significant amounts of reverse repos maturing throughout the month [6][9]. - Despite the pressures from maturing funds, the overall interest rates remained stable, with the overnight Shibor rate at 1.315% and the 7-day Shibor at 1.438% on September 1 [6][7]. Group 2: Expectations for September - Analysts expect that the funding situation will remain reasonably ample due to supportive central bank policies and increased fiscal spending, leading to a likely continuation of low and stable interest rates [9][10]. - September is typically a month of increased fiscal spending, which is expected to provide support for liquidity, especially towards the end of the month [9][10]. - Historical trends indicate that funding rates in September often show a pattern of oscillation, with the first half of the month typically remaining stable before increasing volatility later on [10][11]. Group 3: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - The funding landscape in September is influenced by both seasonal factors, such as increased liquidity demand at the end of the month, and non-seasonal factors, including the strong performance of the equity market [11][12]. - The potential for increased credit issuance at the end of the month may lead to more pronounced liquidity fluctuations compared to previous years, driven by the need for banks to meet regulatory assessments [11][12].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 255.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on September 2, with a total bid amount of 255.7 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 255.7 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, 405.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.1 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank's reverse repos continued to net withdraw, maintaining an overall balanced funding condition in the interbank market, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions slightly rising to around 1.31% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.34% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was approximately 1.66%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [10] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.18%, the 10-year down by 0.03%, the 5-year down by 0.02%, and the 2-year down by 0.02% [14] Group 5: Government Debt Issuance - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of 20 billion yuan in 63-day and 30 billion yuan in 91-day discount treasury bonds on September 3 [19] - Agricultural Development Bank will issue up to 32.5 billion yuan in financial bonds on the same day [19] Group 6: Global Macro Insights - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan commented on the appropriateness of recent Japanese government bond yield movements, suggesting that a predictable reduction in bond purchases is suitable [17] - The European Central Bank's Executive Board member stated there is no reason for further rate cuts, indicating that rates are already moderately accommodative [18]