盘前市场动向 1. 12月2日(周二)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.10%，标普500指数期货涨0.24%，纳指期货涨 0.33%。 | 疆 伦敦布伦特原油 | 2026年2月 | 62.98 | 63.36 | 62.86 | -0.19 | -0.30% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ WTI原油 | 2026年1月 | 59.21 | 59.67 | 59.09 | -0.11 | -0.19% | 市场消息 QT结束叠加美联储鸽派立场!"华尔街神算子"乐观展望：标普500年底前剑指7300点新高。有"华尔街神算子"之称的金融市场研 究机构Fundstrat联合创始人兼研究主管Tom Lee预计，12月美股将表现强劲，标普500指数到年底可能攀升至7300点高位，这意 味着较当前水平上涨10%。Tom Lee表示："标普500指数达到7000点仅需上涨2%。从当前点位来看，我认为该指数12月可能实 现5%、甚至10%的涨幅。"他指出，美联储结束量化紧缩(QT)将成为市场上涨的主要推动力。他将当前形势与2019年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1 marks a significant policy shift, aiming to address liquidity risks and support the U.S. economy, but does not indicate the start of a new round of quantitative easing (QE) [1][16]. Summary by Sections Quantitative Tightening Background - Quantitative tightening refers to the process where the central bank sells government bonds or stops reinvesting maturing assets to reduce its balance sheet size [2]. - The QT measures were implemented to counteract the effects of aggressive monetary easing during the COVID-19 pandemic, which had led to a significant expansion of the Fed's balance sheet [3]. Economic Context - Following the pandemic, the Fed adopted a dual approach of lowering interest rates to near zero and implementing QE, which resulted in the balance sheet ballooning to nearly $9 trillion, over 30% of the U.S. GDP [4]. - As a consequence of the Fed's expansive policies, inflation surged, peaking above 9% [5]. Current Balance Sheet Status - As of last month, the Fed's balance sheet has been reduced to $6.6 trillion, still $2.5 trillion higher than pre-pandemic levels [6]. Reasons for Ending QT - The decision to halt QT is driven by multiple pressures, including tightening liquidity in the money market and declining bank reserves [9][10]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, and continuing QT could increase government financing costs and exacerbate debt risks [12]. - Economic downturn pressures are also a significant factor influencing the Fed's decision [14][15]. Implications of Ending QT - Ending QT may signal a conclusion to the Fed's tightening policies initiated during the pandemic, but it does not equate to a restart of QE [16]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed is unlikely to face conditions that would necessitate a return to QE in the foreseeable future, as inflation pressures are expected to persist [16]. - The decision to stop QT is seen as a short-term positive for U.S. bank liquidity and may stabilize short-term interest rates, benefiting equity and bond markets [17]. - Globally, this move could provide a boost to stock markets and commodities, alleviating capital outflow pressures in emerging markets [17]. Long-term Risks - There are concerns about potential long-term risks associated with a possible shift to a technical "expansion" of the balance sheet, which could lead to debt monetization and asset bubbles [18][19]. - Emerging markets may face increased volatility and localized debt risks due to cross-border capital flows influenced by U.S. monetary policy changes [20].

Kevin Hanks live at the CBOE pre-bell playbook. Joining me right now to take a look at the big picture. It's good morning to you.Uh we are starting lower here this morning. We had a lot of action and rally mode that we saw in the last week or so. Now what.>> Good morning, Nicole. You know, I think it's an interesting start to the trading week for the for these reasons. People waking up this morning saying, "Why are the US markets lower to start the week?" Well, part of it is foreign markets were down overni ...

Group 1 - Wall Street enters a challenging year-end with optimism after experiencing its best week in nearly six months, reversing one of the worst November performances in over a decade [1] - The S&P 500 index has recorded a double-digit increase year-to-date, driven by the rise of "seven giants" in the tech sector, a strong U.S. economy, and expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The market's rebound after a 19% decline over seven weeks ending April 9 is seen as a strong signal for investors, with historical patterns suggesting that mid-year double-digit declines often lead to full-year gains [1] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is approximately 87%, as indicated by futures prices, with the labor market becoming the Federal Reserve's primary focus [2] - The Republican tax and spending bill, effective January 1, is expected to increase spending and provide a strong combination of tax cuts and accounting changes, contributing to market optimism [2] - Recent volatility in tech stocks is viewed positively, as companies with clear AI profit paths are being rewarded, while those with weak balance sheets are losing ground [3] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that the second half of December is typically one of the strongest periods for U.S. stocks, with an average return of 1% and approximately 70% of the time showing gains [4] - The market is currently experiencing a shift, with tech stocks giving way to sectors like healthcare, materials, and consumer discretionary, indicating a broader market rally [3] Group 4 - Investor sentiment among retail investors has turned cautious, with a net bearish sentiment of 42.7%, up from 36.3% at the beginning of the month, reflecting concerns over recent market volatility [5] - Seasonal factors suggest a slightly favorable market outlook at year-end, rewarding those already invested rather than those waiting for perfect entry points [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow bull trend supported by policy shifts and improved liquidity, despite potential short-term volatility [1] - The market's risk appetite is being positively influenced by factors such as breakthroughs in the technology sector and changes in the US-China geopolitical landscape [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is anticipated to provide external support for the A-share market's slow bull trend [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is showing signs of initial stabilization after adjustments caused by multiple internal and external factors, with a long-term upward trend remaining intact [2] - Improvements in dollar liquidity are expected, particularly with the Federal Reserve's dovish signals and the anticipated pause in quantitative tightening starting December 1, 2025 [2] - Institutional investors are expected to begin repositioning for 2026, with a potential increase in buying activity as market pressures ease [2] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced significant volatility and a slight decline in November, influenced by external risk appetite and sectoral differentiation [3] - The banking sector continues to lead, but there are indications that this trend may be nearing its end, while undervalued consumer sectors are showing stronger performance [3] - The market is likely to remain in a high-level oscillation without significant events to drive risk appetite upward, suggesting a focus on patience and strategic positioning for future opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has experienced a significant decline, dropping below the 4% mark, reflecting a reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy direction [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In November, the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated between 4.1% and 4.2% before rapidly declining in late November [1][2] - The market is currently pricing in an 86.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be cautious due to the lack of key economic data, which may lead to a short-term rebound in Treasury yields [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates a weakening trend, with consumer spending declining and manufacturing facing cost pressures due to tariffs [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported mixed economic activity across its districts, with some showing slight declines [3] - Concerns about a potential recession are rising as labor market conditions show signs of fatigue [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Treasury yield will continue to be influenced by monetary policy expectations, economic fundamentals, inflation outlook, and risk sentiment [4] - The Federal Reserve's end of quantitative tightening and reinvestment in short-term Treasury bills may provide new demand for the bond market [6] - The yield curve may steepen in the future due to ongoing issuance pressures in the long-term bond market, while short-term yields may remain stable due to Federal Reserve demand [7]

当地时间12月1日，美联储将停止主动缩小资产负债表（也就是"缩表"）。 中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌分析认为，美联储停止"缩表"是出于经济下行压力和货币市场流动性两 方面因素的考虑。 观点速览 美国经济现在实际上有一定的下行压力，停止"缩表"，有助于维护金融市场流动性的稳定性。 在当前来看，美国经济增速放缓的压力是美联储决定停止"缩表"最根本的或最基础性的原因。 美联储主席鲍威尔10月29日在议息会议结束后曾宣布，下调联邦基金利率25个基点，使基础利率维持在 3.75%至4.00%区间，同时自12月1日起将停止"缩表"，即暂停量化紧缩操作。 美联储10月货币政策会议纪要相关内容截图 美联储表示，鉴于有迹象显示货币市场流动性状况已开始趋紧、银行准备金水平下降，其将停止缩减规模 达6.6万亿美元的资产负债表。自12月1日起，每月最多50亿美元的美国国债到期后不进行再投资的操作将 不再被允许，将通过对到期国债进行展期来保持政府债券库存稳定。 什么是"缩表"？ 所谓"缩表"，是指中央银行或金融机构通过减少资产持有量或清偿负债来缩小资产负债表规模的行为。"缩 表"通常表现为央行卖出国债等资产或停止到期资产再投资，导致 ...

Core Insights - The global economy is seeking a new balance amid trade easing and policy stimulus, with significant market rebounds observed in Q3 2025 driven by improved US-China trade relations, optimism in artificial intelligence, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][5]. Market Performance - Global stock markets saw a notable rebound in Q3 2025, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets, particularly in Asia, where China (+20.8%), Taiwan (+14.7%), South Korea (+12.8%), and Thailand (+17.6%) led the gains. In contrast, India experienced a decline of 6.6% due to valuation pressures and foreign capital outflows [5][6]. - The fixed income market showed volatility but overall upward movement, with US Treasury yields declining across the board, particularly the 10-year yield which fell by 8 basis points to 4.16%. Emerging market dollar bonds performed strongly, achieving a 4.8% increase [6][11]. - The commodity market saw significant gains in gold (+16.4%) and precious metals (+17.4%), while energy and agricultural sectors lagged [11]. Economic Outlook - Future months may see a slowdown in global economic growth, but policy stimulus is expected to drive a rebound in early 2026. The US economy may weaken due to stagnant job growth and rising tariff costs, although investments in new infrastructure and technology sectors provide some support [2][14]. - China's recent credit growth slowdown indicates a need for stronger domestic demand, but upcoming policy measures may inject new momentum into the economy. The government is expected to set a GDP growth target of at least 4.5% for the next year [15][34]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting rates, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in October and another in December. Other major central banks are anticipated to follow suit with easing measures [3][20]. - Asian countries are implementing new rounds of stimulus to counter economic pressures, with China expanding credit support, India reforming tax policies, and Indonesia providing cash transfers to households [32][33]. Inflation Trends - Inflation patterns are diverging globally, with the US expected to see a gradual rise in inflation to around 3.1%-3.2% due to tariff effects, while many Asian economies maintain lower inflation levels, allowing for more room for monetary easing [2][16]. - In China, inflation is projected to remain low, while Japan and India are managing inflation within target ranges through policy adjustments [16][34].

彭博社的宏观策略师西蒙·怀特认为，虽然市场有所颠簸，但在这个流动性背景下，熊市不太可能发 生。 最近，怀特发布了一篇引人注目的文章，这篇文章在全球投资者对美股近期走势感到迷茫的时刻，无疑 是一剂强心针。 如果你关注市场，会发现最近美股确实像是撞到了一个"坑"，主要股指从近期高点回撤了大约 5%。这 个时候，很多人开始心里打鼓：这是不是大跌的前兆？我们要不要开始恐慌了？ 怀特认为，目前的美国股市下跌只是暂时的修正，而非长期熊市的开端。这背后的核心逻辑在于，无论 是政府财政、美联储政策，还是更广泛的货币与市场流动性，目前都处于一种"宽松"或"正在变得更宽 松"的状态。作者形象地指出，来自美国财政部和美联储的"双重看跌期权"（Twin Puts）正在发挥作 用，这种通常这并不是熊市该有的"配置"。 虽然有人将近期的市场低迷归咎于流动性收紧，但怀特反驳说，这种收紧是非常短期的现象。若把目光 放长远一点，风险资产面临的流动性背景实际上是"具有建设性的"。接下来，我们就从这位专家梳理的 几个关键维度，来看看为什么大盘即便调整，也有坚实的底部支撑。 "财政看跌期权"的回归与接力 首先，我们得聊聊所谓的"财政看跌期权"（Fi ...

来源：金融界AI电报 英国金融时报分析指出，日本政府债务长期处于天文数字级别，然而过去十年间国债收益率大多维持在 低位，这催生了一种危险的错觉——巨额债务并非问题。新任首相高市早苗近期公布的财政刺激方案， 本意是展现与前任的政策差异，却恰恰成为这种危险错觉的最新例证。现实在于：日本巨额债务是真实 存在的，而低利率却是人为假象。日本央行通过大规模购债及曾实施的收益率曲线控制政策，将利率压 制在目标水平，人为抑制了国债收益率向市场定价水平的回归。这套机制在新冠疫情爆发前尚可运转， 但随之而来的通胀浪潮导致全球央行集体加息，纷纷从通过资产购买实行量化宽松转向量化紧缩。事实 上，新冠疫情已终结日本的利率压制实验——全球由此进入高利率平衡期。若在此环境下坚持压制利 率，将可能引发货币陷入可怕的贬值周期。 ...