1. Report Summary - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2] - The strategy views and investment logics in the report are based on publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week. Closing price data is from last Friday, and weekly changes are compared with the previous Friday's closing price [2] 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - Silver closed at 24965.00 with a 11.04% weekly increase; PTA at 5448.00 with an 8.57% increase; Gold at 1115.64 with a 7.74% increase; Ethylene glycol at 3997.00 with a 5.30% increase; Palm oil at 8910.00 with a 2.72% increase; Methanol at 2298.00 with a 2.64% increase; PVC at 4921.00 with a 2.46% increase; Aluminum at 24290.00 with a 1.53% increase; Polysilicon at 50720.00 with a 1.04% increase; Soybean meal at 2751.00 with a 0.88% increase; Corn at 2300.00 with a 0.83% increase; Crude oil at 441.90 with a 0.71% increase; Copper at 101340.00 with a 0.57% increase [3] - Rebar closed at 3142.00 with a - 0.66% change; Coking coal at 1157.00 with a - 1.20% change; Iron ore at 795.00 with a - 2.09% change; Live pigs at 11565.00 with a - 3.46% change; Glass at 1064.00 with a - 3.54% change [3] 2.2 A - shares - CSI 500 closed at 8590.17 with a 4.34% weekly increase; CSI 300 at 4702.50 with a - 0.62% change; SSE 50 at 3032.19 with a - 1.54% change [3] 2.3 Overseas Stock Markets - NASDAQ Composite closed at 23501.24 with a - 0.06% change; Nikkei 225 at 53846.87 with a - 0.17% change; S&P 500 at 6915.61 with a - 0.35% change; Hang Seng Index at 26749.51 with a - 0.36% change; FTSE 100 at 10143.44 with a - 0.90% change; France CAC40 at 8143.05 with a - 1.40% change [3] 2.4 Bonds - China's 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.60 with a - 1.01bp change; 10 - year at 1.83 with a - 1.12bp change; 2 - year at 1.39 with a - 1.19bp change [3] 2.5 Foreign Exchange - Euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.18 with a 1.97% increase; US dollar central parity rate was 6.99 with a - 0.21% change; US dollar index was 97.51 with a - 1.88% change [3] 3. Commodity Views Summary 3.1 Macro - finance Sector 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: 3 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logics: Global liquidity is loose; Small and medium - cap indexes receive capital inflows; The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy; China's GDP in 2025 grew by 5% year - on - year [4] - Bearish logics: Regulators signal to cool market sentiment; Near - month contracts of stock index futures have a large premium; Market differentiation intensifies; Corporate profit recovery expectations are not strong [4] 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logics: Risk - aversion sentiment rises; Domestic demand is insufficient; Allocation funds enter the market; The central bank maintains a loose liquidity environment [4] - Bearish logics: Concerns about long - term bond supply remain; The stock - bond seesaw effect may divert funds; The rebound of treasury bonds has partially realized positive factors; The "re - inflation" expectation has improved [4] 3.2 Energy Sector (Crude Oil) - Strategy views: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logics: US military deployment in the Middle East; Disruption at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield; Geopolitical events; Cold snap in Europe and America [5] - Bearish logics: Venezuela's export shift; Potential quick reversal of risk premium; High production from non - OPEC countries; High OECD oil inventories [5] 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector (Palm Oil) - Strategy views: 2 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logics: India's peak consumption season; Higher crude oil prices; Decreased production in Malaysia; Reduced domestic port inventory [5] - Bearish logics: High inventory in Malaysia; High domestic inventory; Indonesia's suspension of the B50 plan; Disadvantages in substitution [5] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector (Aluminum) - Strategy views: 2 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logics: Overseas supply disruptions; Capital inflows; Long - term demand expectations; Policy support [6] - Bearish logics: Rising domestic daily production; High prices suppressing demand; Seasonal consumption decline; Reduced speculative buying [6] 3.5 Chemical Industry Sector (PTA) - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logics: Capital inflows; Low inventory pressure of polyester products; Expected improvement in supply - demand and profit [6] - Bearish logics: Reduced production by polyester factories; High processing fees; Low profits of polyester products; Expected inventory build - up [6] 3.6 Precious Metals (Gold) - Strategy views: 3 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logics: Geopolitical risks; Central bank gold purchases; Expectations of a dovish Fed pause; Potential capital inflow into ETFs [7] - Bearish logics: Strong US economy; Technical overbought pressure; Potential "hawkish pause" signal from the Fed [7] 3.7 Black Sector (Coking Coal) - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logics: Winter storage demand; Expected supply contraction; Import disruptions; Overall market sentiment [7] - Bearish logics: Fast import of Mongolian coal; Weak demand from steel enterprises; Declining blast furnace operating rate; Lack of new upward drivers [7]

过去五年，中国房地产市场经历了一场罕见的深刻调整，房地产在家庭财富中的作用发生本质转变。与 此同时，随着银行利率持续走低，居民理财收益下降，存款"搬家"现象呈加速趋势。 站在资产配置的十字路口，普通人何去何从？当房地产普涨时代落幕，什么样的房产能够穿越周期、实 现保值增值？股市能否接棒楼市，成为居民财富增长的新引擎？在避险情绪中屡创新高的黄金还能涨多 久？ 本期《思路打开》对话中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、广开首席产业研究院院长连平，深入解析中国的 楼市、股市和居民资产配置的逻辑重构。 【对话/连平&王慧】 王慧：连平老师您好，今天想从房地产开始，跟您聊聊中国居民的资产配置问题。过去五年，中国的房 地产经历了一场罕见的深刻调整。2026年中央定调要"着力稳定房地产市场"。这个"稳定"是什么意思？ 是指市场完成探底开始企稳，还是说市场正在以平稳的态势逐步寻底、筑底？ 连平：从物理的角度来看，"稳定"是一种水平运动。从房地产市场本身来看，我认为目前至少应该是结 束或者停止向下的过程，也就是说，要结束探底的过程，然后进入横盘筑底阶段。这可能是"稳定"真实 的含义所在。 现在从成交量、价格、工程推进力度等方面来看，房地 ...

Group 1: Overseas Economic Data - The U.S. labor market remains robust, with initial jobless claims at 200,000, below the expected 209,000, indicating no significant pressure [1] - The U.S. Markit Composite PMI for January is at 52.8, indicating continued expansion in both manufacturing and services sectors [1] Group 2: Domestic Important Data - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a net injection of 700 billion yuan through MLF operations, with a total of 900 billion yuan to be conducted [2] - The LPR remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year, marking eight consecutive months of stability [2] - PBOC Governor Pan stated that the bank will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2][3] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices have been on an upward trend since November, currently around $5,000 per ounce, with expectations to potentially exceed $6,000 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and a declining U.S. dollar index [6] - Silver has shown significant growth, with domestic futures rising from approximately 7,000 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of 2025 to 27,250 yuan per kilogram by January 23, 2026, and international prices reaching around $103.161 per ounce [9] Group 4: Currency Exchange Rate - As of January 23, the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate is at 6.963, indicating a continued appreciation trend for the RMB [11] Group 5: Funding and Bond Market Performance - The funding environment remains generally loose despite tax period disturbances, with overnight rates showing an increase [14] - The bond market has seen a downward trend in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8298%, down from 1.8424% the previous week [20][21] - The credit bond market has shown improvement, with yields on city investment bonds decreasing [25][26]

证券研究报告/宏观利率研究 2026 年 01 月 27 日 国内降准降息仍有空间 全球债市波动加剧 宏观利率周报（20260119-20260123） 研报摘要 ⚫ 核心观点：尽管经济增速逐季有所下行，四季度不变价 GDP 同比增速仅为 4.5%， 但高基数等短期因素影响显著，环比增速稳定在合理区间，实际增长并未失控。叠加 "十五五"开门红预期，如果收益率继续下行，可能出现利率阶段底部。 ⚫ 行情回顾：12 月经济数据供强虚弱，固定资产投资累计同比-3.8%，罕见转负；社 消 12 月环比-0.12%，弱于季节性；三驾马车中，仅 12 月中国美元计价出口当月同比增 6.6%，在 AI 资本开支周期和中国制造的竞争优势支撑下韧性较强。叠加 MLF 超额续 作和海外避险情绪升温，以及央行关于"降准降息仍有空间"的表述，除 1 年期利率 外，3-30 年期利率不同程度下行，中债十债利率小幅回落至 1.8298%。 ⚫ 市场要闻：（1）资本市场。证监会正式发布公募基金业绩比较基准指引，中国基 金业协会同步发布操作细则。证监会严肃查处瑞丰达违法违规案件。金融政策。央行行 长潘功胜指出今年降准降息还有一定的空间。（2） ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of targeted operations to effectively counter seasonal liquidity pressures, maintaining a reasonable level of liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival [1] - On January 26, the PBOC conducted a 150.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, despite a net withdrawal of 207.8 billion yuan in the open market on the same day [1] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing during the week of January 26-30 reached 1.181 trillion yuan, alongside MLF maturities, resulting in a liquidity withdrawal pressure exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The PBOC has optimized structural monetary policy tools by lowering interest rates on loans for agriculture and small enterprises, as well as for technological innovation [3] - PBOC officials indicated that there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates this year, although the urgency for a reserve requirement cut before the Spring Festival has decreased [3] - Market analysts expect that the PBOC may implement 1 to 2 reserve requirement cuts and potentially 2 interest rate cuts in 2026, with the timing for policy rate reductions anticipated in the second quarter [3]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一国债期货主力合约开盘大致平开，全天横向窄幅波动，30 | 年期品种略多，截至 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 上涨 | 0.20%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 下跌 | 0.02%，5 | 年期 | TF2603 | 下跌 | 0.02%，2 | 年期 | TS2603 | 下跌 | 0.02%。 | | 【重 ...

研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 27 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货1月26日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.290 | 112.330 | 112.510 | 112.460 | 0.220 | 0.20 | ...

Economic Indicators - As of January 25, 2026, the ECI supply index is at 50.06%, up 0.10 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.84%[8] - The ECI investment index is at 49.83%, unchanged from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.65%, down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The ECI export index has increased to 50.22%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week[8] Industrial Production - The operating rate for automotive full steel tires has improved by 20.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the cement shipment rate has increased by 13.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year[2] - The overall industrial production shows significant improvement due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with various industries experiencing better operating rates compared to last year[17] Real Estate Market - The sales growth of second-hand homes continues to recover, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.9% for the week of January 17-23, 2026, marking the first positive year-on-year change since October 2025[2] Consumer Market - The retail sales of passenger cars are expected to rebound from a year-on-year decline of -14.0% in December 2025 to a growth of 0.3% in January 2026[2] - The "trade-in" policy has shown positive effects, with significant improvements in appliance sales during the week of January 12-18, 2026[2] Export Performance - The cumulative cargo throughput at monitored ports in January 2026 is recorded at an average of 25,967.4 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 3.5%[2] - January exports are expected to maintain strong resilience, supported by a higher number of working days compared to the previous year[2] Inflation Trends - The average wholesale price of pork has increased to 18.48 yuan/kg, showing a marginal recovery, while the average price of 28 key monitored vegetables is at 5.65 yuan/kg, also reflecting a slight increase[44] - The CPI is expected to continue rising due to the seasonal demand for food products and the increase in international oil prices[2] Monetary Policy - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) has been preemptively rolled over with an excess of 9,000 billion yuan, indicating a total liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan in January 2026[16] - The ELI index stands at -0.71%, having increased by 0.07 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[13] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[59] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market is still under observation[59]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on January 26, 2026 [1] - The analyst is Liang Weichao with SAC registration number S1340523070001 [2] Group 2: Core Views - The high point of bond yields has appeared, and the repair is continuing. The timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is crucial for the bond market's repair progress during the subsequent stock market's spring rally [3] - The probability of monetary easing is higher in the first half of the year. The time window for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may be around the Two Sessions in March, before which the yield curve will price in the expectations [3][13] - From the perspective of funds, overnight rates are around the policy rate, and there is no significant fluctuation before the Spring Festival. The short - term central rate may decline before the Spring Festival when cross - festival funds are not tight [3][13] - The high point of long - term yields has appeared, and the central downward space is smaller than that of short - term yields. The 10 - year and 30 - year yields have allocation value, but the 30 - year yield has higher volatility and greater trading difficulty [4][18] - From the "stock - bond relationship" perspective, the yield repair is almost in place. If interest rate cuts occur in spring, there may be a stage of simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds, and yields may decline slightly; otherwise, the bond market repair is almost complete [4][20] Group 3: Market Conditions and Trends Configuration and Trading Sentiment - The return of the allocation disk and the repair of the trading disk have warmed the bond market sentiment. Large - scale banks have increased their allocation demand and bought 7 - 10 - year treasury bonds in the secondary market, and the credit spread of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has declined, indicating the repair of the product household's liability side [10] Impact of Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - The central bank has implemented interest rate cuts for structural monetary policy tools, indicating that short - term policy rate cuts are unlikely in the short term, but there is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts throughout the year, and the bond yield curve may shift downward as a whole or show a slight bullish steepening [12] Fund Situation - Overnight funds are around the policy rate, and the 7 - day fund price remains stable. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to smooth out the seasonal fluctuations before the Spring Festival, and the current state of funds is still relatively stable and loose [13] Short - term Yield - The 1 - year treasury bond yield has declined and is below 1.3%. Short - term varieties such as inter - bank certificates of deposit are also following the downward trend. However, if the R007 remains above 1.5% before the Spring Festival, the downward space for NCD rates is limited [15][16] Long - term Yield - The high point of long - term yields has appeared, and the central downward space is smaller than that of short - term yields. The 10 - year yield has limited short - term downward odds but has allocation value, while the 30 - year yield also has allocation value but high trading difficulty [4][18] Stock - Bond Relationship - The 2026 stock market's spring rally is likely to be characterized by "mid - stage acceleration, easing expectations, and growth - led", which will have a short - term impact on the bond market rather than a trend - based negative impact. Currently, the 10 - year treasury bond has recovered its decline since the beginning of the year, and the 30 - year treasury bond is still 3 BP away from full recovery [4][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The GDP of China in 2025 was 1,401,879 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, achieving the target set at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value above a designated size exceeded market expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index in December rebounded by 0.8 percentage points compared with November. The real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year in December last year and in the first ten - day period of January this year. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. The central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, with a slight upward movement and then a decline throughout the day. As of the close, the main contract of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2603) rose 0.07%, the 10 - year (T2603) rose 0.03%, the 5 - year (TF2603) rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year (TS2603) rose 0.01% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 86.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 38.3 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.40%, compared with 1.42% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.49%, compared with 1.51% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.75 basis points to 1.40%, the 5 - year decreased by 1.82 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year decreased by 1.27 basis points to 1.83%, and the 30 - year decreased by 2.30 basis points to 2.29% [1] - On January 23, the Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain the policy interest rate at 0.75%, in line with expectations [1] - On January 23, it was announced that the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9 (expected 52, previous value in December was 51.8), the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in January was 52.5 (expected 52.9, previous value in December was 52.5, previous value in the same period last year was 52.9), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in January was 52.8 (expected 53, previous value in December was 52.7, previous value in the same period last year was 52.7) [1] - On January 23, it was announced that the preliminary value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in January 2026 rose to 49.4, up 0.6 percentage points from 48.8 in December, higher than the market expectation of 49.1. The preliminary value of the eurozone services PMI in January was 51.9 (expected 52.6, previous value was 52.4), and the preliminary value of the eurozone composite PMI in January was 51.5 (expected 51.9, previous value was 51.5) [1] Market Logic - The GDP of China in 2025 was 1,401,879 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.0%, achieving the target set at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value above a designated size exceeded market expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index in December rebounded by 0.8 percentage points compared with November. The real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year in December last year and in the first ten - day period of January this year. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. The central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. On Friday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated upwards throughout the day, and closed 0.97% higher than the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 3.12 trillion yuan, an increase from 2.72 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. The stock market rose on Friday, while the main contracts of Treasury bond futures still rose slightly. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]