Group 1: Economic Data Release - The January CPI and PPI data will be released on February 11, with expectations for January CPI growth at 0.4% year-on-year, influenced by fluctuating prices of pork, fresh vegetables, and fruits [3][9] - The forecast for February and March CPI growth is 1.4% and 1.0% respectively, driven by seasonal demand for pork and vegetables ahead of the Spring Festival [3][9] - January PPI is expected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year, with the factory price index rising to 50.6 and the main raw material purchase price index increasing to 56.1 [3][9] Group 2: Financial Data Projections - January new RMB loans are projected to be 5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 130 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 6.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [4][11] - Social financing is expected to increase by 6.9 trillion yuan in January, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 980 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.1% [4][11] - M2 growth is anticipated to remain steady at 8.5%, while M1 growth is expected to drop to 2.2%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value [4][11] Group 3: New Stock Issuance - A new stock, Tongbao Optoelectronics, will be issued on February 9, with a total of 18.7934 million shares offered at a price of 16.17 yuan per share, representing 25% of the total post-issue share capital [5][12] - The company specializes in automotive lighting systems and electronic control systems, with products including LED modules and energy management systems [5][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the stock market (Wande A-Share Index) generally declined, with the Wande A-Share Index closing down 1.11% compared to the previous trading day, and the trading volume shrank from 2.50 trillion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan. Meanwhile, the main contracts of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rising 0.38%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.04%. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term, and the performance of the stock index should be continuously monitored. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Thursday, the main contract of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, fluctuated horizontally in the morning, and rose in the afternoon. The 30 - year variety showed a strong trend. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.38%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.04% [1]. - **Stock Market**: On Thursday, the Wande A - Share Index opened lower, fluctuated horizontally throughout the day, closed down 1.11% compared to the previous trading day, forming a doji candlestick, and the trading volume shrank from 2.50 trillion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan [2]. 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market Operations**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 354 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 64.5 billion yuan [1]. - **Funding Market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32% (the same as the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48% (compared to 1.49% in the previous trading day) [1]. - **Cash Bond Market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds dropped 1.35 basis points to 1.36%, the 5 - year dropped 0.62 basis points to 1.57%, the 10 - year dropped 0.24 basis points to 1.82%, and the 30 - year dropped 1.20 basis points to 2.27% [1]. - **US Unemployment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 231,000, compared with an estimate of 212,000 and a previous value of 209,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits in the week of January 24 was 1.844 million, with an estimate of 1.85 million [1]. - **European Central Bank Interest Rates**: On February 5, the European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, in line with market expectations [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - **Economic Data**: The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous value: 49.7%) [1]. - **Policy Signals**: On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure would be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". Recently, the governor of the central bank said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of treasury bond trading in liquidity management, and keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese bond market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable decline in yields, particularly the 10-year government bond yield falling below 1.81%, indicating its potential as a safe-haven asset amidst global market volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 9.05 basis points since January 7, while the 30-year bond yield has fallen by 9.6 basis points [1]. - As of February 5, the 30-year government bond yield was reported at 2.239%, and the 10-year bond yield was at 1.808% [1]. - The bond market has exhibited low volatility compared to other assets, suggesting a return to its characteristics as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed 14-day reverse repos, injecting 300 billion yuan into the market, which is seen as a positive for the bond market [1]. - In January, the PBOC's net bond purchases amounted to 1 trillion yuan, with a significant increase in the net purchase scale compared to previous months [3]. - The central bank's actions, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are expected to influence market liquidity and bond yields in the coming months [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the attractiveness of Chinese bonds will increase as global interest rates shift, particularly with expectations of the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle by 2025 [3]. - The bond market is anticipated to face dual pressures from seasonal cash demands and potential policy changes as the Chinese New Year approaches [3]. - Long-term risks to bond yields may arise from improved economic data and a potential shift towards a looser monetary policy later in the year [5].

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-05 移仓进行中，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算 收入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：2025年前12个月份社会融资规模增量累计为 35.6万亿元，比去年同期3.34万亿：12月末，M2余 ...

Economic Policy and Agricultural Development - The central government's focus for 2026 includes four key tasks in the agricultural sector aimed at enhancing production capacity and quality, providing targeted assistance, promoting stable income growth for farmers, and advancing rural development[2] - The importance of developing new agricultural productivity is emphasized due to the return of migrant workers to rural areas, which can help utilize rural labor and improve income levels[2] - A pilot program for land extension will be implemented in 29 provinces, excluding Guizhou and Tibet, to support rural land management[2] Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan on February 4[3] - Current market liquidity is described as neutral and moderately loose, with seasonal tightening expected as the Spring Festival approaches[3] - There is potential for lowering existing mortgage rates to stimulate consumption, as pressures from exchange rates and bank net interest margins have eased[3] Stock Market Performance - On February 4, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%, with total trading volume at 24,809.71 billion yuan, down by 632.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index fell by 0.4%, and the STAR 50 Index decreased by 1.2%[4] - The overall A-share market saw a 0.45% increase, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.05%[4] Bond Market and Interest Rates - The yield on the 10-year government bond was reported at 1.8201%, with a change of +0.24 basis points[4] - Average interbank rates for R001 and R007 were 1.3962% and 1.5554%, respectively[4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included coal (7.58%), construction materials (3.48%), real estate (2.97%), and transportation (2.82%), while sectors like media and telecommunications saw declines of -3.12% and -2.73% respectively[4][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, dropping below the boom - bust line. The new orders index and business activity indices in construction and service sectors also declined, indicating a slowdown in market demand. The government will maintain fiscal spending, and there is room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The stock market rose slightly on Wednesday, while most Treasury bond futures contracts fluctuated horizontally and closed slightly lower, with the 30 - year variety having a relatively larger decline. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, most Treasury bond futures contracts opened flat and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year variety was weak. As of the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2603 fell 0.23%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02% [1] Important Information - Open market: The central bank conducted 75 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with 377.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan. On February 4, it conducted 800 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchases maturing [1] - Money market: The overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market on Wednesday was flat compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.32%, and DR007 had a weighted average of 1.49%, down from 1.50% on the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds on Wednesday fluctuated slightly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield fell 0.03 BP to 1.38%, the 5 - year rose 0.27 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year rose 0.21 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year rose 0.30 BP to 2.28% [1] - The central bank's credit market meeting: On January 30, 2026, the central bank held a credit market working meeting, emphasizing the importance of accurately grasping the economic and financial situation, improving financial mechanisms, and strengthening financial support for key areas [1] - US employment data: The US ADP employment in January increased by 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - US service PMI: The US ISM service PMI in January was flat at 53.8, higher than the expected 53.5, indicating strong inflation pressure [1] Market Logic - Economic data shows a slowdown in manufacturing and service sectors. The government will maintain fiscal spending, and there is room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The stock market rose slightly on Wednesday, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan after 3.775 trillion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - From February 2 to February 4, the cumulative net withdrawal of liquidity through 7-day reverse repos amounted to 674.5 billion yuan, indicating a stable liquidity environment ahead of the Spring Festival [1] - Analysts expect that as the Spring Festival approaches, the PBOC may shift to net liquidity injection through reverse repos and potentially utilize 14-day reverse repos to mitigate liquidity fluctuations [1] Group 2 - In January, the PBOC reported a net liquidity injection of 700 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and a net injection of 100 billion yuan through government bond transactions, indicating a significant increase in liquidity measures compared to previous months [2] - The PBOC's approach to government bond transactions will be flexible, considering various factors to maintain ample liquidity for smooth government bond issuance [2] - The likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the short term has decreased due to the increased net liquidity injections through MLF and government bond operations [2] Group 3 - The PBOC's large-scale liquidity injection in January reduces the urgency for a comprehensive RRR cut before the Spring Festival, suggesting a period of observation for monetary policy [3] - The continuation of MLF operations and the resumption of 3-month reverse repos are expected to stabilize the funding environment without necessitating an RRR cut in the short term [3] - Analysts predict that the window for potential interest rate cuts or RRR reductions may open in the second quarter of the year [3]

Economic Outlook for January Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic outlook for January, highlighting key indicators such as CPI, PPI, and financial forecasts related to the Chinese economy [1] Key Points and Arguments Price Predictions - January CPI is projected to increase by 0.6% year-on-year (previous value: 0.8%), with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% (previous value: 0.2%) [1] - For industrial products, January PPI is expected to decrease by 1.8% year-on-year (previous value: -1.9%), with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% (previous value: 0.2%) [1] Financial Forecasts - In January, new RMB loans are expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 130 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate falling by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2% [1] - New social financing in January is projected to be 6.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 98 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate declining by 0.2 percentage points to 8.1% [1] - M2 growth rate is expected to be 8.5%, unchanged from the previous month; M1 growth rate is projected to be 2.2%, down from 3.8%, a decline of 1.6 percentage points [1] Future Monetary Policy Predictions - Economic growth and the promotion of reasonable price recovery will be key considerations for monetary policy throughout 2026, alongside financial stability [1] - A total easing operation of 25-50 basis points in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 10 basis point interest rate cut is anticipated, with a gradual approach and infrequent adjustments [1] - Structural policy tools will continue to be emphasized, with a focus on guiding credit structure and supporting areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Important but Overlooked Content - There is a risk that an escalation of geopolitical conflicts could unexpectedly boost China's economic performance by addressing overcapacity issues [1] - The potential for policy implementation to fall short of expectations is highlighted as a risk factor [1]

Fixed Income - The overall scale of interest rate bond funds has decreased, with total assets amounting to 3.0 trillion yuan as of Q4 2025, down by 0.09 trillion yuan from Q3 2025 [6][7] - The average yield of interest rate bond funds has rebounded to +0.44% in Q4 2025, compared to -0.48% in Q3 2025, but remains significantly lower than the 4.42% yield in 2024 [8][19] - The expected yield range for 10-year government bonds in 2026 is projected to be between 1.6% and 1.9%, with opportunities for long-term bonds anticipated to arise after significant market corrections [8][19] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell back below the expansion threshold to 49.3 in January 2026, indicating a slowdown in production activities compared to the previous month [11][10] - The non-manufacturing PMI also decreased to 49.4, suggesting a contraction in service sector activities, with the composite PMI output index at 49.8 [11][10] - The consumption sector is expected to receive policy support, but the impact may be weaker than in 2025 due to high base effects from the previous year [11][10] Social Financing - The forecast for new loans in January 2026 is 4.9 trillion yuan, with social financing expected to reach 7.07 trillion yuan, indicating a slight year-on-year increase [15][18] - M2 is projected to reach 345.1 trillion yuan by the end of January, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [15][18] - The social financing growth rate is expected to decline to around 8.1% by the end of January 2026, following a peak in mid-2025 [18][15] Pharmaceutical Sector - The approval of phosphoric acid lebrikizumab cream for the treatment of vitiligo marks a significant milestone for the company, being the first targeted therapy for this condition in China [21][22] - Clinical trials have shown promising results, with a significant percentage of patients achieving a 75% improvement in vitiligo area after 24 weeks of treatment [21][22] - The company is also pursuing additional indications for the cream, including atopic dermatitis, which could further enhance its market potential [22][21] New Consumption Sector - The company holds exclusive operational rights for key scenic areas and has established a robust management system for mountain tourism, positioning it well for growth [25][26] - The opening of the Shenbai high-speed railway is expected to significantly increase visitor traffic, enhancing accessibility to the scenic area [27][26] - The company plans to raise 236 million yuan for expanding its facilities and improving transportation, which is anticipated to boost its operational capacity and customer experience [27][26]

Economic Growth and Investment - The GDP growth for the year 2025 is projected at 5.0%, achieving the annual economic growth target, characterized by a "high first, low second" structure and stronger external demand compared to internal demand [2] - In December 2025, industrial production accelerated, particularly in new momentum sectors such as pharmaceuticals, specialized equipment, and computer communications [2] - Fixed asset investment continued to decline throughout 2025, recording negative growth, but is expected to rebound in 2026 due to new policy financial tools and increased special bond investments [2] Consumer and Price Trends - In December, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8%, reaching the highest level since March 2023, primarily driven by increased food prices [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also turned positive, supported by improved supply-demand order from "anti-involution" policies and rising commodity prices [3] - Retail sales growth slowed to a new low for 2023, but service consumption showed improvement, indicating a potential bottoming out of certain consumer goods [2][3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal revenue saw a significant decline at year-end, with major tax categories dropping, while fiscal expenditure decreased at a slower rate [3] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain at a high level of 4.0%, ensuring that expenditure efforts will not diminish [3] - The central bank announced a reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and expanded their scope, indicating ongoing targeted support for key sectors [3] External Environment and Market Trends - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% in January, aligning with expectations, while continuing its asset purchase program [4] - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally in January, with emerging markets performing particularly well, and A-share indices all rising [4] - The bond market is expected to remain stable under conditions of liquidity easing and policy support, with certain bonds still holding investment value [5]