1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the yield of treasury bonds showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Although the social financing data increased year - on - year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and the credit demand remained weak. Coupled with the manufacturing PMI still below the boom - bust line, it strengthened the market's judgment of a weak economy, supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the Middle East situation increased risk - aversion sentiment, which was also beneficial to the bond market. Although the Lujiazui Forum signaled financial opening, there were no more - than - expected loose measures, cooling the market's expectation of the central bank's treasury bond trading, causing interest - rate bonds to rise and then fall. In June, the LPR remained unchanged, the stock market weakened, and the capital side was relatively stable. The bond market generally rose, and the market's expectation of loose policies in the second half of the year increased. Ultra - long - term treasury bond trading was active, but the overall situation was still affected by the policy vacuum period [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30% [8]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year was 7.90%, with a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%; the manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02% [8]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.31, with a decrease of 0.40 and a decline rate of 0.41%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1603, with a decrease of 0.008 and a decline rate of 0.11%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.67, with no change and a decline rate of 0.06%; DR007 was 1.69, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.51%; R007 was 1.64, with a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.63, with an increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.78%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.07, with a decrease of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.78% [8]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures and the price change situation of various treasury bond futures varieties [9][15][17][19]. 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - On June 26, 2025, the central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 509.3 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase interest rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.370%, 1.670%, 1.736%, and 1.622% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently declined [2]. 3.4 Spread Overview No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [41][44][45]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, and the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate [47][49]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [56][59][62]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [67][70]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [75][78][81]. 3.9 Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase interest rate declined, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuated, and the 2509 contract was neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4]. - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the game of policy expectations, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Last week, Treasury bond yields showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Although social financing data increased year-on-year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and credit demand remained weak. Coupled with the manufacturing PMI still below the boom-bust line, it strengthened the market's judgment of a weak economy, supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the Middle East situation increased risk aversion, which was also beneficial to the bond market. Despite the signal of financial opening released at the Lujiazui Forum, there were no more-than-expected easing measures, which cooled the market's expectation of the central bank's buying and selling of Treasury bonds, causing interest rate bonds to rise and then fall. In June, the LPR remained unchanged, the stock market weakened, and the capital side was relatively stable. The bond market generally rose, and the market's expectation of easing policies in the second half of the year increased. Ultra-long-term Treasury bond trading was active, but it was still restricted by the policy vacuum period [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.20% and a year-on-year change of -0.10%. China's PPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.40% and a year-on-year change of -3.30% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%. M2 year-on-year was 7.90%, a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02% [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.95, a decrease of 0.43 and a decline rate of 0.44%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1754, a decrease of 0.011 and a decline rate of 0.15%. SHIBOR 7 days was 1.63, an increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 8.82%. DR007 was 1.67, an increase of 0.16 and a growth rate of 10.67%. R007 was 1.64, a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%. The 3M interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.61, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04% [8]. 2. Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the closing price trend of Treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts and the price changes of various Treasury bond futures varieties [9][12]. 3. Money Market Capital Situation - On June 24, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.370%, 1.629%, 1.697%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Situation No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the inter - period spread trend of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - varieties [36]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield [43]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract [51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the T main contract [62]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract [69]. Strategies - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging. The short - term fluctuation of the yield curve intensifies, and the trend still depends on the further clarification of the fundamentals and policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, aligning with market expectations, while the potential for further monetary easing remains influenced by various factors [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and LPR - The recent financial policies include a comprehensive 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a decrease in policy rates by 10-25 basis points, leading to a 10 basis point drop in both LPRs [1][4] - The LPR is unlikely to decrease further this month due to the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40%, which serves as a reference for LPR [2] - The net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased to 1.43% by the end of Q1 2025, down 9 basis points from the previous quarter, indicating pressure on banks to reduce LPR markups [2] Group 2: Financing Costs and Economic Impact - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans in May were approximately 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, both down about 50 and 55 basis points year-on-year, reflecting a continued decline in financing costs [2] - The marginal effectiveness of interest rate cuts is diminishing as market rates decrease, with only 7.7% of surveyed enterprises considering loan rates high or processes complex [3] - Future reductions in overall financing costs may focus on lowering non-interest costs such as collateral and intermediary service fees rather than further interest rate cuts [3] Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC plans to enhance structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors and strategic areas, with an increase in re-lending quotas for technology innovation and small enterprises by 300 billion yuan each [5] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through targeted measures, including the use of structural monetary policy to promote housing stability [5][6] - The capital market's recovery is supported by structural monetary policy tools, which aim to enhance the "wealth effect" and promote a positive cycle in both stock and real estate markets [6]

Group 1 - The latest LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The net interest margin of commercial banks in China has narrowed to 1.43% in Q1 2023, down 9 basis points from Q4 2022, indicating pressure on bank profitability [2] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans is approximately 3.2%, which is 50 basis points lower than the same period last year, while the rate for personal housing loans is about 3.1%, down 55 basis points year-on-year [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that there is potential for further LPR reductions in the second half of the year, driven by the need to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [3] - The external environment remains uncertain, but there is an expectation for continued monetary easing to support economic recovery and maintain stable currency levels [3] - The current domestic and international conditions reduce the necessity for aggressive monetary policy adjustments in the short term, leading to a forecast of stable policy rates and LPR [2]

Core Viewpoint - The June LPR remains unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year rate and 3.5% for the 5-year rate, which aligns with market expectations following the previous monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The stability of the June LPR is attributed to the recent monetary policy changes, where a 10 basis point reduction was implemented in May, leading to a corresponding adjustment in LPR rates [1][2]. - Experts indicate that the current economic conditions do not necessitate further immediate adjustments to the LPR, as the policy rates are expected to remain stable [2][3]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Analysts believe that the unchanged LPR reflects the lack of significant changes in the factors influencing LPR pricing, thus meeting market expectations [2]. - The chief economist from China Minsheng Bank noted that the recent financial policies aim to stabilize market expectations, contributing to the current LPR stability [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - While there may be potential for future LPR reductions, market participants are advised to temper their expectations regarding the timing and extent of such adjustments [3]. - The ongoing reduction of deposit rates by major banks is expected to continue, which may impact the LPR if further reductions are pursued [3]. - Experts suggest that the focus should be on reducing overall financing costs rather than solely relying on LPR adjustments, especially in light of external factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3].

【博时市场点评6月20日】两市继续调整，成交缩至万亿 每日观点 今日沪深两市继续震荡调整，成交缩量至1.09万亿。今日央行公布6月LPR报价，两个期限利率均保持 不变，符合市场预期。5月降息效果当前正向贷款利率传导，短期内将进入政策观察期，LPR报价短期 或将继续保持稳定。5月经济数据已发布，需求不足仍是核心问题，下半年在外部仍有很大不确定性， 大力提振内需、稳定资产价格预期，均需要适度宽松的货币环境。通过降低资金成本，激发融资需求， 是下半年拉动投资和消费、对冲外部冲击的一个重要发力点。国内权益市场短期或将维持震荡，主题轮 动较快，配置上可关注科技+红利的哑铃配置。 消息面 市场复盘 6月20日，A股三大指数下跌。截至收盘，上证指数报3359.90点，下跌0.07%；深证成指报10005.03点， 下跌0.47%；创业板指报2009.89点，下跌0.83%；科创100报1016.84点，下跌0.52%。申万一级行业中， 交通运输、食品饮料、银行涨幅靠前，分别上涨0.88%、0.73%、0.69%；传媒、计算机、石油石化跌幅 靠前，分别下跌1.91%、1.79%、1.71%。1500只个股上涨，3488只个股 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month [1] - Following a 10 basis point decrease in May, the stability of the LPR in June aligns with market expectations [1] - The central bank's policy rate cut in May is expected to lead to a more significant reduction in loan rates for businesses and individuals, thereby lowering financing costs for the real economy [1] Group 2 - In May, the weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans (in both domestic and foreign currencies) was approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points year-on-year [1] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued personal housing loans was around 3.1%, which is 55 basis points lower than the same period last year [1] - Experts suggest that while there may still be room for LPR to decrease, market expectations regarding the pace and extent of future rate cuts should be moderated [1] Group 3 - The external environment remains uncertain, and domestic growth stabilization policies should not be relaxed [1] - There is a possibility that the central bank may continue to lower interest rates in the second half of the year, indicating potential further downward movement for the LPR [1]

金十数据6月20日讯，招联首席研究员董希淼表示，降低LPR并非当务之急。随着市场利率不断降低， 降息的边际效应也在下降。从外部因素看，美联储放缓降息步伐，如果LPR下降速度过快，可能会扩大 中美利差，增加人民币汇率压力。下一步，推动社会综合融资成本下降，并非只有降低LPR这一种途 径。 未来降低综合融资成本，可能要从降低抵押担保费、中介服务费等非利息成本着手。 招联首席研究员：降低LPR并非当务之急 ...

Core Viewpoint - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating that loan rates for enterprises and residents are at historically low levels [1] Group 1 - The decision to maintain the LPR at current levels was widely anticipated by market participants [1] - Following the policy rate cut in May, the LPR was adjusted downwards, and the current stability reflects the lack of significant changes in factors affecting LPR pricing [1] - The unchanged policy rate in June suggests that the transmission of previous rate cuts to loan rates is ongoing [1]

国债期货日报 | 2025-06-19 政策呵护期内，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...