Core Viewpoint - The trend of small and medium-sized banks discontinuing long-term deposit products is highlighted, with a combination of product withdrawals and interest rate cuts signaling the end of the "interest-earning era" for depositors [3][4]. Group 1: Discontinuation of Long-Term Deposit Products - Meizhou Commercial Bank announced the discontinuation of its five-year fixed deposit product and the termination of automatic renewal services due to policy adjustments [5]. - Several small and medium-sized banks have also removed five-year fixed deposits, with notable examples including the announcement from Tuyuqi Mengyin Village Bank and Zhongguancun Bank [10]. - A total of seven banks have removed five-year fixed deposits from their offerings, while some banks have listed them as sold out [11]. Group 2: Interest Rate Cuts - A new wave of interest rate cuts is occurring among small and medium-sized banks to address net interest margin pressures, with many banks reducing deposit rates since October [13]. - For instance, Pingyang Pudong Village Bank cut its three-year and five-year deposit rates from 2.1% and 2.15% to 1.3% and 1.35%, a reduction of 80 basis points [13]. - The average net interest margin for various types of banks has narrowed, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, private banks, and foreign banks experiencing declines of 14 basis points, 5 basis points, 27 basis points, and 7 basis points respectively [15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that if the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is further reduced, deposit rates will likely follow suit, leading to a new round of widespread cuts [17]. - The possibility of new monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, may stimulate internal financing demand [16].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of small and medium-sized banks discontinuing long-term deposit products and lowering interest rates is closing the door on the "interest-earning era" for depositors [1][2]. Group 1: Discontinuation of Long-Term Deposit Products - Meizhou Commercial Bank announced the discontinuation of its five-year fixed deposit product and the termination of automatic renewal services due to policy adjustments [2]. - Several small and medium-sized banks have been phasing out five-year fixed deposit products, with notable examples including the announcement from Tuyuqi Mengyin Village Bank, which explicitly canceled its five-year fixed deposit product [5]. - A total of seven banks have removed five-year fixed deposits from their offerings, including Meizhou Commercial Bank and Zhongguancun Bank, with some also discontinuing three-year fixed deposits [6]. Group 2: Interest Rate Reductions - Many small and medium-sized banks have entered a new round of interest rate cuts to address the pressure on net interest margins, with significant reductions observed in recent months [8]. - For instance, Pingyang Pudong Village Bank reduced its three-year and five-year fixed deposit rates from 2.1% and 2.15% to 1.3% and 1.35%, respectively, marking a drop of 80 basis points [8]. - The overall trend shows that banks are aligning their deposit rates with larger institutions, leading to a flattening of previously higher rates [11]. Group 3: Impact on Banking Sector - The net interest margin for banks has been under pressure, with state-owned, joint-stock, private, and foreign banks all experiencing a narrowing of their margins compared to the previous year [12]. - Analysts suggest that the current low levels of net interest margins may deter banks from further reducing loan rates, as it could threaten their profitability [13]. - There is speculation that monetary policy may initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, which could lead to a further decline in deposit rates [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The economic growth in October continued the slowdown trend in the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments have been fully deployed by the end of October, which may effectively boost investment growth in the fourth quarter, and it is expected that the annual economic growth target of 5% can be achieved without worry [104]. - The overall fundamental data in October was weak, with indicators such as exports, social financing, and social retail showing varying degrees of decline. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery trend in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. In the short term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [105]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.51%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract rose 0.01%. The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while the open interest decreased [13][30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.51%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [16][22]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: From January to October this year, the national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. From January to October, the national fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the bank settlement and sales surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and the cross - border capital inflow increased. The new LPR remained stable for the sixth consecutive month, and there is still a possibility of a decline in the future. The yield of Japan's newly issued 10 - year treasury bonds reached a new high since June 2008. The Fed's decision - making on interest rate cuts in October was highly controversial. The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased significantly, but the unemployment rate rose to a new high since October 2021 [33][34][35]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spread**: The spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year treasury yields narrowed, and the spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year treasury yields widened [41]. - **Main Contract Spread**: The spread between the 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts narrowed, and the spread between the 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened [50]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Near - Far Month Spread**: The inter - period spreads of the 10 - year, 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts all narrowed [54][61]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T treasury bond futures main contract increased slightly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight and 1 - week interest rates decreased, while 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.44%. The yields of treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 0.6bp and 0.9bp to 1.81% and 2.16% respectively [71]. - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The spreads between the 10 - year and 30 - year China - US treasury yields both narrowed slightly [78]. - **Central Bank Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 434 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.44% [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.203854 trillion yuan, and the total repayment was 1.263495 trillion yuan, with a net financing of - 59.641 billion yuan [87]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0875, with a cumulative depreciation of 50 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened [90]. - The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond decreased, and the VIX index increased significantly [96]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond in China increased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [101]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic**: In October, economic indicators such as social retail, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed a slowdown. Social financing and credit decreased slightly year - on - year, and the support of government bonds for social financing continued to weaken. The export growth rate turned negative. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments have been fully deployed, which may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved [104]. - **Overseas**: The US government shutdown ended, and a large amount of economic data will be released. The non - farm payrolls in September increased significantly, but the unemployment rate rose. The Fed's decision - making on interest rate cuts was controversial, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December decreased significantly [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation shows that US non - farm data is mixed, the market awaits more data, and Fed officials' speeches are mostly hawkish. The market's bet on further rate cuts in December has declined, the US dollar index is under pressure, and risk preference has decreased. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has stable supply and demand characteristics, with inventory reduction. The aluminum market's fundamentals have few contradictions, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. The long - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the macro - situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - The aluminum market has both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include stable domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity, improved demand and inventory reduction, and tight overseas aluminum supply. Bearish factors are the reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts in December and weak risk preference [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US non - farm employment data in September was mixed. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The market is waiting for more data, and Fed officials' speeches are mostly hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of rate cuts in December. The US dollar index is under pressure, and risk preference has decreased [6][11]. - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged for six consecutive months. The State Council is promoting "two - heavy" construction and consumption - promoting policies [6][15]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has stable production capacity, and the supply is stable. The demand shows seasonal characteristics, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals of aluminum have few contradictions, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Shanghai aluminum's trend is affected by the macro - situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for aluminum: Stable domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity in December, improved demand and inventory reduction, and tight overseas aluminum supply [9]. - Bearish factors for aluminum: Reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts in December and weak risk preference [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum Bauxite**: In October, the national aluminum bauxite production was 477.23 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply in Henan has recovered, but that in Shanxi is still tight. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on imports is ending, and the import volume in December is expected to increase [17][20]. - **Alumina**: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The operating capacity is at a high level but has slightly decreased. The production profit of some enterprises has turned negative, and it is expected that the alumina price will fluctuate at a low level [24]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio increased. In November, due to environmental protection policies and seasonal consumption weakness, the aluminum water ratio is expected to decline [27]. - **Aluminum Processing**: The average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises increased by 0.4% to 62%. Each downstream sector is in a weak state, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [31]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 544,075 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1.38% to 114,899 tons. As of November 17, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 637,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last Thursday. The aluminum ingot social inventory has been fluctuating, and the current inventory level is not high [42][45]. - **Price and Premium**: On November 20, the average price premium of Shanghai Wuma aluminum was stable at - 10 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium widened to - 31.16 US dollars/ton [49]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In October, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry increased to 60.5% as of November 13, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% [53][57]. - **Unwrought Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12,500 tons (13.2%). It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same period last year [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: As of November 21, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from last week, and the factory inventory was 57,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week [66]. 3.4后市研判 - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost of cast aluminum is affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience. The short - term price of aluminum alloy is expected to stabilize and fluctuate [67]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The recent trend of Shanghai aluminum is greatly affected by the macro - situation. It is expected that the adjustment will continue, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips [69].

Domestic Highlights - Hainan's free trade port is entering the final countdown for its closure on December 18, 2025, signaling a significant step in financial openness[12] - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 18,649 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[9] - The fiscal expenditure for the same period was CNY 22,582 billion, up 2% year-on-year, indicating a stable fiscal environment[9] - In October, the foreign exchange market showed a surplus of CNY 1,194 billion in bank settlements, reflecting strong risk resilience amid international market volatility[11] International Highlights - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% in Q3 2025, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, primarily due to declines in exports and private housing investment[16] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements regarding future interest rate cuts, with a 67.2% market expectation for no rate change in December[19] - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%[22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.04% week-on-week, while iron ore prices rose by 2.38%[24] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities saw a week-on-week increase of 19.89%, although first-tier cities experienced an 8.51% decline[37] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 9% year-on-year in the second week of November 2025[37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - China's new LPR remains stable for the sixth consecutive month, and there is still a possibility of a downward adjustment in the future [2] - The phosphate iron lithium industry is promoting anti - involution, with the association providing cost reference and regular disclosure [2] - US employment and unemployment data show a complex situation, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December is low [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusts trading fees and position limits for lithium carbonate futures [3] - Rebar production and apparent demand increase, while inventories continue to decline [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - China's new 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR are reported at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, remaining stable for six consecutive months, and there may be a downward adjustment [2] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will guide the phosphate iron lithium industry to avoid low - price dumping [2] - US September non - farm payrolls increase, but previous data are revised down, and the unemployment rate rises [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusts trading fees and position limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts [3] - Rebar production increases by 3.98% this week, and total inventory decreases by 22.83 tons [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, Shanghai copper, industrial silicon, asphalt, PP [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials up 3.34%, precious metals up 29.29%, etc. [4] Plate Position - Shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index has a daily decline of 0.40%, a monthly decline of 0.60%, and an annual increase of 17.28%, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures have a daily increase of 0.06%, a monthly decline of 0.18%, and an annual decline of 0.40%, etc. [6] - Commodity: CRB commodity index has a daily decline of 0.54%, a monthly decline of 1.63%, and an annual increase of 0.30%, etc. [6] - Other: The US dollar index has a daily increase of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.49%, and an annual decline of 7.62%, etc. [6]

Domestic Financial Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down by 0.40% [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down by 0.76% [3] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3042.34, down by 1.12% [3] - The Hang Seng Futures Index closed at 33367.24, up by 0.10% [3] Macro News Summary - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are drafting the "Government Procurement Demand Standards for New Energy Vehicles (Draft for Comments)" [5] - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting the innovation and upgrading of a batch of time-honored brands [5] - The November Loan Market Quote Rate (LPR) was released: the 5-year LPR remains at 3.5%, and the 1-year LPR remains at 3% [5] Industry Latest Dynamics - Core products of organic silicon have increased in price by 20%, leading to institutional buying of related stocks such as TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089) and Hoshine Silicon Industry (603260) [6] - IDC predicts that the Chinese smart glasses market will reach a scale inflection point by 2026, with related stocks including Goertek Inc. (002241) and iFlytek Co., Ltd. (002230) [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a document to improve the efficiency of computing resource utilization, with related stocks including Chuling Information (300250) and Cambridge Technology (603083) [6] Listed Company Focus - Xue Ren Group (002639) is involved in a major national scientific research project utilizing its "megawatt" large helium compressor equipment [7] - Amway Co., Ltd. (300218) is collaborating with Google on the application of polyurethane composite materials in electronic products, which currently represents a small portion of overall revenue [7] - Xingfa Group (600141) has completed the installation and debugging of its 20,000 tons/year sodium hypophosphite expansion project, which is now ready for trial production [7] - Bowei Alloy (601137) is focusing on 6G communication materials as one of its key R&D projects, which has already been applied in testing prototypes [7] Market Review and Outlook - On November 20, the market opened slightly higher but maintained a volatile pattern, with all three major indices closing lower [8] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4% to close at 3931 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped over 1% [8] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.71 trillion, a decrease of 177 billion from the previous trading day [8] - Sectors such as construction materials, banking, public utilities, and telecommunications saw gains, while hotel and restaurant, daily chemicals, coal, and electrical equipment sectors experienced declines of over 2% [8] - The market is currently in a performance vacuum, with value styles outperforming growth styles due to a lack of earnings realization and policy support [9] - Short-term strategies suggest maintaining a wait-and-see approach until a stop-loss signal appears, followed by potential reallocation based on new market leaders [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, reflecting stable market expectations and a consistent monetary policy environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections LPR Announcement - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged from previous values [1]. - The announcement aligns with market expectations, indicating stability in the monetary policy [1]. Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, while 190 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 110 billion yuan [1]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a downward trend, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 5.6 basis points to 1.364% and the 7-day Shibor down by 2.7 basis points to 1.46% [1]. Economic Context and Future Outlook - The stability of the LPR is attributed to a strong macroeconomic performance, with key indicators such as investment, consumption, and industrial production showing signs of decline [2][3]. - The potential for new monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts, is anticipated to stimulate domestic demand and support economic growth [3]. - The regulatory body may consider lowering the 5-year LPR to address high mortgage rates and boost housing market demand [4].

唐翠婷认为，今年我国前三季度实际GDP累计同比增长为5.2%，为实现全年5%的增长目标奠定了坚实 基础，显示出当前我国经济运行具备较强韧性。通胀层面，价格数据呈现边际回升迹象，其中PPI同比 降幅连续三个月收窄，核心CPI同比增速连续六个月回升，CPI同比增速连续两个月边际改善，"反内 卷"政策的积极效应逐步显现，LPR保持稳定的合理性进一步提升。 展望后市，唐翠婷预计，临近年末且我国经济韧性仍存，年内再次降息的概率较低，但随着国内增长动 能边际放缓、外部约束逐步减弱，2026年LPR仍有下降空间。后续，需重点关注11月宏观经济数据、12 月美联储议息会议及年末中央经济工作会议等关键节点。若经济稳增长压力持续，叠加外部约束放松， LPR下行概率将显著提升。 建信期货宏观研究员冯泽仁告诉记者，从政策背景来看，央行发布的三季度货币政策执行报告虽没改 变"稳健宽松"的总基调，但特别强调了"做好逆周期和跨周期调节"。这一表述暗示货币政策重心从单纯 的总量宽松转向结构性发力，兼顾短期稳增长与中长期防风险。因此，年底前的货币政策工作重心将是 加快5000亿元寄存限额等准财政政策的落地，托底年内经济。2026年是"十五五" ...

据财政部网站消息，为发挥政府采购示范引领作用，加强政府采购需求管理和标准化建设，支持新能源 汽车推广应用，财政部会同工业和信息化部研究起草了《新能源汽车政府采购需求标准（征求意见 稿）》，本标准适用于新能源汽车政府采购项目，供采购人参考使用。新能源汽车是指纯电动汽车、插 电式混合动力（含增程式）汽车、燃料电池（氢能）汽车。 LPR连续6个月保持不变 2025年11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版LPR报价：1年期品种报3.0%， 上月为3.0%；5年期以上品种报3.5%，上月为3.5%。自今年5月降息后，LPR已连续6个月保持不变。 《新能源汽车政府采购需求标准（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见 宏观要闻 商务部回应二手车出口如何监管 ...