Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed meeting minutes indicate that the Fed is facing inflation, employment, and financial risks, choosing a non - action strategy, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined. The domestic market is in a short - term policy vacuum period, with funds being reallocated. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, no significant changes are expected. Attention should be paid to whether there will be an opportunity for the market to increase with increased trading volume after the festival. Recently, the market's expectation of subsequent adjustments has risen. Technically, there is still a distance to fill the gap around 3316, and short - term funds are more likely to choose to fill the gap and buy at the bottom. Additionally, attention should be paid to the liquidity of small - cap stocks to prevent extreme market conditions [2][12] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market View 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The Fed released FOMC meeting minutes, stating that due to rising risks in inflation and employment, and the uncertainty of the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the US economy, the Fed strongly implied that it would not cut interest rates soon and clearly predicted stagflation. Some officials also hinted at the financial risk of rising long - term US bond yields. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields for 2 - year and 10 - year terms increased, gold prices fell, the three major US stock indexes declined, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Wednesday, the broader market fell 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.31%. The market showed a volatile downward trend, similar to Tuesday, with limited index movements, accelerated sector rotation, and many stocks experiencing a shrinking - volume decline. Some popular stocks appeared on the decline list. In terms of sectors, textile and apparel, environmental protection, coal, transportation, and communication led the gains, while chemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, military industry, and automobiles led the losses. There were 1750 rising stocks and 3477 falling stocks in the whole market. China announced visa - free policies for Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain [2][5] 1.3 Important News - The EU trade chief will talk with the US Commerce Secretary and Trade Representative on Thursday, with topics including tariff policies and cooperation in aviation, semiconductors, and steel. Three major German car companies are in consultations with the US Department of Commerce on tariff issues, aiming for an agreement in early July. Trump responded angrily to the "TACO" deal. The Fed meeting minutes showed rising risks of unemployment and inflation, and the "Fed whisperer" said that the stagflation prediction might be the keynote of the Fed's June economic forecast. Chinese officials emphasized China's commitment to high - level opening - up and welcomed US financial institutions to participate in the Chinese capital market. The Chinese government also focused on building a good platform economy ecosystem and strengthening the publicity of rare - earth export control policies. DeepSeek open - sourced a new version, and China implemented visa - free policies for four Middle - Eastern countries [6][7][11] 1.4 Today's Strategy - The Fed is facing inflation, employment, and financial risks, choosing a non - action strategy with reduced expectations of interest rate cuts. The domestic market is in a policy vacuum, with funds being reallocated. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, no major changes are expected. After the festival, attention should be paid to potential market increases. The market's expectation of subsequent adjustments has risen, and there is a chance for short - term funds to fill the gap around 3316. Attention should also be paid to small - cap liquidity [12] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report presents the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including details like closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and changes in trading volume and open interest [14][15] 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of various stock indexes and sectors in the spot market, including current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuation levels. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on different indexes [33][34][35] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts on central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rates, which are related to market liquidity [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in positions, a spot premium, and a weakening basis. The fundamentals suggest that the supply of Shanghai copper may increase slightly while the demand remains relatively stable. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,130 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,628 dollars/ton, up 63 dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai copper is 174,757 lots, up 5,295 lots. The LME copper inventory is 154,300 tons, down 7,850 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 98,671 tons, down 9,471 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,485 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,525 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The CU main contract basis is 355 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 44.97 dollars/ton, up 4.89 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper concentrate TC index is - 44.28 dollars/kiloton, down 1.23 dollars. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.47%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.49%, down 0.20%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.03%, down 0.0002; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 0.82, down 0.0064 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed meeting minutes show that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased. The Politburo member and Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasizes building a good platform economy ecosystem. From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises is 26.2755 trillion yuan, and the total profit is 1.34914 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The raw material supply for domestic smelters will remain stable in the short term. The overall supply of copper may increase steadily, while the demand from some downstream copper product processing enterprises is weakening, leading to a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The recent convergence of the spot premium and downstream operations such as low - price replenishment and pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking support the copper price [2].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have declined for three consecutive days, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts, with prices reaching a low of $3,273 before a slight recovery to close at $3,284.40 per ounce [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate increased uncertainty in the current economic environment, leading to a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts, with a preference to wait for clarity on tariff policies before making decisions [1][2] - Almost all committee members expressed concerns that tariffs could lead to a long-term increase in inflation levels, highlighting the challenging balance between curbing inflation and maintaining employment [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the Fed maintaining interest rates, concerns over tariffs pushing inflation and slowing job growth have intensified, suggesting a cautious monetary policy outlook [2] - Geopolitical conflicts have supported safe-haven demand, but improved U.S. consumer confidence data and rising U.S. Treasury yields have diminished gold's appeal [2] - The U.S. 10-year real yield has increased, and the dollar index rose by 0.28% to 99.89, further pressuring gold prices [2] Group 3: Import and Market Expectations - Notably, Switzerland's gold imports from the U.S. reached a new high since 2012 in April, while Hong Kong's net gold imports doubled year-on-year in April [2] - The market anticipates a potential 45 basis points rate cut from the Fed within the year, but strong economic data and a cautious policy stance are currently putting pressure on gold prices [2]

——从关税冲击到降息迷途，全球市场屏息以待 一份凌晨发布的会议纪要，撕开了美联储面对的两难困局：一面是关税助推的通胀火焰，一面是就业市 场的降温预警，而夹在中间的，是全球资本市场的剧烈波动。 北京时间5月29日凌晨2点，美联储公布了5月货币政策会议纪要，首次将"关税冲击"纳入核心议题，并 罕见警告未来可能面临通胀与失业"双升"的艰难权衡。这份被市场称为"风暴预警"的文件，不仅揭示了 美国经济政策的内部分歧，更暴露了全球金融体系在政治不确定性下的脆弱性。 一、会议纪要核心信号：三重压力下的"政策悬崖" 1. 通胀顽固性远超预期 长期通胀预期脱锚风险：核心PCE通胀率仍达2.6%，美联储预计2027年前难回2%目标，滞胀阴影笼 罩。 关税成为新推手：几乎所有与会官员指出，特朗普政府加征的关税正被企业转嫁给消费者，甚至非关税 影响企业也借机提价，导致通胀"向上漂移风险加剧"。 2. 就业市场韧性面临考验 尽管当前失业率稳定在4.2%，但企业因贸易不确定性已开始冻结招聘，制造业、农业等关税敏感行业 首当其冲。纪要直言"劳动力市场疲软风险正在累积"。 3. 金融稳定警报拉响 美元避险地位动摇：长期美债收益率上升与美元贬 ...

Group 1 - The EU has agreed to hold daily calls with US Commerce Secretary and Trade Representative to discuss tariff policies and cooperation in sectors like aviation, semiconductors, and steel [10] - Trump's media technology group saw a significant drop of nearly 7%, while GameStop fell by 10.8% [4] - Nvidia's Q1 revenue exceeded expectations, reaching $44.1 billion, with data center revenue growing by 73% to $39.1 billion, accounting for 88% of total sales [11] Group 2 - The OPEC+ meeting did not adjust oil production policies, planning to use 2025 production levels as a benchmark for 2027 [13] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.53%, with significant movements in tech stocks, including Alibaba Pictures rising by 11.54% and Kuaishou increasing by 5.95% [5] - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.02% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.26% [6]

Domestic News - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng welcomed U.S. financial institutions to actively participate in the development of China's capital markets [4] - The National Health Commission reported a slowdown in the upward trend of COVID-19 cases nationwide [4] - The Ministry of Education announced that the number of candidates for the national college entrance examination in 2025 is expected to reach 13.35 million [4] - The Ministry of Commerce is strengthening the promotion of rare earth export control policies, which may indicate a relaxation of export restrictions on European chip companies [4] International News - Nvidia's Q1 revenue exceeded expectations, although data center revenue was slightly below forecasts, leading to a 5% increase in stock price after hours [5] - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not make adjustments to oil production policies, planning to use 2025 production levels as a benchmark for 2027 [11] - German automakers are reportedly negotiating directly with the U.S. government for tariff exemptions in exchange for investments [12]

Core Viewpoint - UBS's wealthy clients are increasingly seeking to diversify their investment portfolios by significantly increasing allocations to alternative assets amid market volatility and global trade uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Alternative Assets Demand - UBS's Asia-Pacific President Iqbal Khan noted a strong and growing demand for alternative assets among clients, indicating a shift in investment strategies to mitigate risks [1] - Alternative assets, which include private equity, private credit, hedge funds, real estate, and collectibles, are characterized by lower liquidity and lower correlation with traditional assets, making them valuable during market turmoil [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook and Stagflation Risks - Khan anticipates a continued decline in benchmark interest rates and an increasing likelihood of a stagflation environment, particularly in the U.S. [2] - The recent geopolitical tensions and aggressive U.S. policies have raised concerns among investors about potential stagflation or deep recession risks, contributing to the weakening of dollar assets [2] Group 3: Leadership Changes and Integration Progress - As part of a leadership restructuring in 2024, Khan has been appointed to oversee UBS's Asia-Pacific operations, while Rob Karofsky will manage U.S. operations [3] - UBS has faced challenges following its acquisition of Credit Suisse, including significant layoffs and cost-cutting measures, with a goal of achieving $13 billion in synergies [3] Group 4: Regulatory Challenges - UBS executives express concerns that excessive regulation could undermine Switzerland's competitiveness in the global financial market, with potential implications for the bank's headquarters location [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent economic policies and credit rating changes in the U.S., highlighting the potential risks and opportunities in the commodity markets and U.S. debt dynamics. Group 1: U.S. Credit Rating and Debt Dynamics - On May 16, Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the first downgrade in 108 years [2]. - The downgrade triggered a re-evaluation of U.S. Treasury risks, leading to a steepening yield curve, with 10-year yields rising by 3 basis points and 30-year yields by 10 basis points [4]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach $1.7 trillion for FY2023, approximately 6.3% of GDP, creating a vicious cycle of rising interest rates and expanding deficits [8]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Implications - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" fiscal policy aims to extend tax cuts and increase defense spending while raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, potentially increasing federal debt by $3.06 trillion over the next decade [7]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $34 trillion, with about one-third being short-term debt, which poses refinancing risks as interest rates rise [9]. - The current fiscal pressure is the most severe since the 1980s, with interest payments potentially exceeding military spending, impacting infrastructure and healthcare budgets [11]. Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - The article notes that the current "stagflation" state in the U.S. economy is likely to persist, leading to downward pressure on commodity prices, particularly for financial commodities [13]. - Recent fluctuations in oil prices indicate a pessimistic demand environment, despite temporary supply shocks [17]. - In the agricultural sector, there is a bullish sentiment for corn and wheat due to supply constraints, while the soybean oil market faces limitations on price increases due to fiscal constraints [20][21]. Group 4: Currency and Investment Trends - The article highlights the impact of U.S.-China interest rate differentials on the RMB, with current U.S. rates around 4.5% compared to China's 1%-2% [23]. - A potential depreciation of the U.S. dollar could lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB, which may attract global capital towards Chinese assets [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures, waiting for fundamental verification; allocate more gold on dips [2] Core View of the Report - The US-EU trade friction has eased temporarily, and the RMB has shown resilience. The short-term export is supported, but the investment data has weakened, and attention should be paid to the possibility of further fiscal expansion. The long-term US Treasury yields have continued to rise, and attention should be paid to potential liquidity risks. For commodities, pay attention to the fundamental transmission and long-term stagflation allocation. [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, China's export slightly exceeded expectations, but the investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure increased simultaneously, and consumption was slightly pressured. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The China-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the two sides promised to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a negotiation mechanism. The RMB is expected to be more stable in the future. [1] - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt is expected to continue to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate setting framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is expected to be postponed to September. The US-EU tariff war has been postponed, which has improved market risk appetite. [1] - For commodities, beware of the emotional impact of the US stock adjustment on industrial products, and the price of agricultural products is more likely to rise due to tariffs. The crude oil price has declined, and the supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. The EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia, and the EC plans to levy a 2 euro tax on small packages entering the EU. Gold may present a buying opportunity on dips. [1] Strategy - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures, waiting for fundamental verification; allocate more gold on dips. [2] Important News - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1843 against the US dollar on Monday, up 52 basis points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 86 basis points. [1][5] - The Fed's Kashkari said that uncertainty is the most concerned issue for the Fed and US companies, and long-term high tariffs will increase the risk of stagflation. [1][5] - The President of the European Commission said that Europe is ready to advance trade negotiations quickly and decisively, and the US has agreed to extend the deadline for EU tariffs to July 9. [1][5] - The US President said that the US does not plan to produce textiles but will focus on manufacturing large items such as tanks, chips, and computers. [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded due to increased market risk aversion following the passage of Trump's tax reform and proposed tariffs on Europe, with medium to long-term support expected from the Fed's interest rate cuts and global de-dollarization trends [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 23, gold closed at $3357.52 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $124.68 per ounce, representing a 4.86% rise [1]. - Trump's tax reform passed in the House with a narrow margin, raising concerns about the U.S. deficit [3]. - Trump announced a proposal to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, heightening market risk aversion [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. May Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3, above expectations of 49.9, while the Services PMI also came in at 52.3, exceeding the forecast of 51 [2]. - The U.S. April existing home sales fell by 0.5% to an annualized rate of 4 million units, the lowest since 2009, while new home sales rose by 10.9% to an annualized rate of 743,000 units [2]. - The U.S. leading economic index (LEI) dropped by 1.0% in April, marking the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold is notable, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves to 73.77 million ounces as of April, marking the sixth consecutive month of increases [5]. - The combination of monetary expansion, fiscal deficit monetization, and geopolitical instability is expected to enhance the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - The global trend of de-dollarization may position gold as a new pricing anchor, potentially leading to upward momentum for precious metals [4].