Group 1 - The significant reduction in bilateral tariffs aligns with the expectations of producers and consumers in both countries, as well as the interests of the global community [7] - On May 12, the U.S. announced the cancellation of 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods in April, and modified the 34% "reciprocal tariffs," with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days [1][2] - Following the tariff reduction, there was a surge in booking and consultation volume for shipping, with some companies reporting a 3-4 times increase in activity [1] Group 2 - The urgent need for "inventory clearance" was highlighted, as many exporters rushed to ship goods that had been delayed due to high tariffs [2] - Companies like Shuangma Plastics reported a resumption of orders from U.S. clients, with approximately 30% of their exports directed to the U.S., of which over 20% had been hindered by high tariffs [2] - The demand for shipping to the U.S. is expected to remain high due to the traditional peak season from June to September, compounded by the backlog of goods from April [4] Group 3 - The supply-demand imbalance is exacerbated by international shipping companies reducing capacity on U.S. routes to maintain freight rates, leading to a 50% reduction in market capacity for U.S. shipments [4][5] - The Shanghai Export Container Transport Market Index showed a slight increase in freight rates, with rates to the U.S. West and East coasts rising to $2,347 and $3,335 per FEU, respectively [4] Group 4 - The demand for overseas warehouses has been growing steadily, with stable inventory levels for small items even during high tariffs, indicating resilience in the market [6] - The expectation is that long-term tariff levels will remain reasonable, prompting companies to diversify markets and enhance brand value [7]

据金融界报道，近日，对于即将到来的中美经济高层会谈，外交部副部长华春莹做出表示。华春莹明确 表示，中方完全有信心也有能力处理来自于美国的贸易问题，美国国内民众也受到了关税问题的严重影 响，美国的贸易政策不得民心，是走不远的。同时，华春莹还强调，中方不希望与任何国家打贸易战。 中方有勇气直面这次的会谈，坚持到最后，克服一切贸易困难。 美国民众和和部分商人十分依赖中国进口产品，关税提高使得这些产品价格提高，民众对政府的支持率 不断下滑，商人也多次联合起来要求白宫方面降低关税。与此同时，对于美国随意提高关税的霸权行 为，欧盟向世界贸易组织提出诉讼，并计划对美国进口产品进行经济反制措施。美方的行为破坏了美国 和欧盟之间的贸易关系，欧盟对美国的产品进行反制，迫使美国调整关税使其恢复正常。 中国加入世贸组织，经济开始调整，复苏，发展，崛起，美国开始害怕，害怕作为第二大经济体的中国 再发展下去会超越自己。美国以维护自身发展利益为借口，提高了关税，极力打压中国的产品，打贸易 战，企图以此来遏制住中国的经济发展。但事实证明，美方的行为并没有起到很好的效果，反而引起了 美国国内多方不满，甚至是欧盟的反对。 贸易港口（资料图） 特 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that while the external environment is favorable for bond futures, caution is advised due to the relatively low bond yields and the potential impact of tariffs. For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended. In the precious metals market, the long - term bullish trend of gold is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures on dips is advised. For commodities, different strategies are proposed based on the supply - demand, valuation, and technical analysis of each product [6][10][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bond futures closed significantly lower. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 1.31%, 0.46%, 0.2%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 43 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for bond futures, but the current bond yields are relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and the Sino - US trade agreement has made progress. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 1.23%, 0.77%, 1.48%, and 1.56% respectively [8][9]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks are a positive sign, but the structural contradictions and deep - seated differences between the two countries still exist. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 772.28 with a decline of 2.05%, and the main silver contract closed at 8,232 with an increase of 0.78% [12]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, the increased risk of global economic recession due to tariff disturbances, and the potential passive easing of monetary policies around the world are expected to drive up the price of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures on dips is advised [12][13]. Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded significantly. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil are 2,940 yuan/ton, 3,040 - 3,170 yuan/ton, and 3,230 - 3,250 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and there are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in time, and pay attention to position management [14]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder are 760 yuan/ton and 626 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore has decreased but is still the highest among black - series products. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and stop losses if the previous low is broken [16][17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly [19]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. The demand for coke from some steel mills has decreased, and the second - round price increase is difficult to implement. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have reached new lows, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered [19]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract rose 1.80% to 5,866 yuan/ton, and the main silicon - iron contract rose 1.55% to 5,636 yuan/ton [21]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The inventory of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron is high. For manganese - silicon, call option opportunities at low levels can be considered; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [23]. Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the cooling of Sino - US tariff tensions [24]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: OPEC+ will increase production in May - June, and the market is worried about oversupply. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to crude oil, but $65 per barrel of Brent crude is an important resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and rose significantly. Singapore's land - based fuel oil inventory has dropped to a seven - week low [27]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the reduction of tariff friction and the decrease in inventory are positive. A long - biased operation for the main fuel oil contract is recommended [27][28]. Rubber (including Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber) - **Synthetic Rubber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose 3.28%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was raised to 11,750 yuan/ton [29]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply pressure continues, but the demand is expected to improve due to the slowdown of tariffs, and the cost has rebounded. It is short - term bullish, but the upward space is limited [29][30][31]. - **Natural Rubber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main natural rubber contract rose 2.18%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 2.40%. The Shanghai spot price was raised to 14,900 yuan/ton [32]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the overall situation, it may show a weak - side fluctuation [32][33]. Chemical Products (including PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Lithium Carbonate) - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose 0.27%, and the spot price remained stable [34]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [34][35][37]. - **Urea** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract fell 0.26%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was raised to 1,970 yuan/ton [38]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The domestic export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent agricultural demand will start. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to policy changes and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets [38][39]. - **PX** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose 3.23%, and the PXN spread rose to $210/ton [40]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The short - term crude oil price is expected to rebound, and PX is expected to follow the cost - side rebound. Buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [40][41]. - **PTA** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose 3.11% [42]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand structure of PTA has improved, and the cost is expected to turn better. The price may have upward repair space. Buying in the low - range is recommended, and attention should be paid to risk control [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose 1.97% [43]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The restart of coal - based ethylene glycol plants is less than expected, the supply increase is not obvious, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is expected to rise. Buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to port inventory and macro - policies [43][44]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract rose 2.71% [45]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The downstream terminal demand has slightly recovered, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost - side. Short - term long positions on dips are recommended, and attention should be paid to risk control [45]. - **Bottle Chip** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract rose 2.12% [46]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The raw material price has strengthened, and the supply - demand fundamentals of bottle chips have improved. The price is expected to rebound following the cost - side. Attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices [46]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash closed at 1,318 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [47]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of soda ash remains high, and the prices of raw materials are falling. The inventory has increased slightly. In May, there will be concentrated device maintenance, which may cause short - term market adjustments. Short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass closed at 1,045 yuan/ton, down 0.29% [49]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The production line is at a low level, and the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force. The tariff adjustment may affect downstream products, and the market sentiment may be repaired in the short term, but the actual repair degree remains to be seen [49][50]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,545 yuan/ton, up 2.58% [51]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for caustic soda from alumina and non - aluminum downstream industries is limited. Some plants will enter the maintenance period in May, which may have a certain driving force. Attention should be paid to the operation of enterprise plants and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices [52][53]. - **Pulp** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of pulp closed at 5,256 yuan/ton, up 1.43% [54]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The domestic and international supply of pulp is abundant, but the downstream consumption is weak. The market is in a weak pattern. Attention should be paid to whether international pulp mills start substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [55][56]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 64,040 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [57]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still in excess, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to run weakly [57]. Metals (including Copper, Tin, Nickel, Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon) - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, closing above the 60 - day moving average. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,260 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Comex copper is weak, and the 60 - day line of Shanghai copper has been suppressing the price. The Sino - US talks have achieved important results, and the copper tariff may not be implemented. The copper price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for the main Shanghai copper contract [58][59]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose 1.33% to 264,570 yuan/ton [60]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, but the current supply is tight. The downstream demand has phased support, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to face upward pressure and fluctuate weakly [61]. - **Nickel** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell 1.26% to 124,180 yuan/ton [62]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost is supported. However, the downstream acceptance of high prices is not high, and the demand may weaken in the off - season. The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main industrial silicon contract closed at 8,320 yuan/ton, up 0.24%, and the main polysilicon contract closed at 38,450 yuan/ton, up 2.49% [63]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for the industrial silicon/polysilicon industry chain is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. The price is affected by delivery factors and production - cut news, and the fluctuation is intensified. It is still in the capacity - clearing cycle, and a bearish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [63][64]. Agricultural Products (including Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn & Starch, Logs) - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract fell 0.17% to 2,908 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose 0.03% to 7,814 yuan/ton [65]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US trade friction has eased, and the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. The upward pressure on the main soybean meal contract is large, and it is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is enhanced, and call option opportunities at the bottom support range can be considered [65][66]. - **Palm Oil** - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market was closed. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from May 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 1.9% year - on - year [67]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil** - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed contracts showed mixed results. The domestic inventory of rapeseed has increased, the inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has slightly decreased [70]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [71]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly, and the overnight external cotton market closed slightly higher [72]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US negotiation is favorable for cotton, but the USDA's supply - demand report is negative. The domestic downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay close attention to the S

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Tariff cuts exceed expectations, demand expectations are revised upward, and macro - sentiment improvement is expected to repair valuations. The industry has strong supply and demand and continuous de - stocking. Pay attention to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices and the pressure in specific price ranges for different contracts [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract rebounded due to macro - level sentiment. Fundamentally, daily iron - water production remains high, and inventory pressure eases. The sustainability of high iron - water production depends on terminal demand for finished products, and the supply - demand pressure may increase in the future. It is expected to have short - term valuation repair but a bearish outlook in the medium - to - long - term [4]. Coke - The futures rebounded due to tariff negotiation results. The second round of spot price increase is difficult to implement, and the market is bearish. Although the fundamentals have improved, factors such as weak coking coal, over - capacity, and lack of pricing power lead to a weak downward trend. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The futures rebounded due to tariff negotiation results, but the spot market is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main reasons for the price decline. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon - The futures main contract continued to rebound. Supply pressure has eased after previous production cuts, but inventory is still at a medium - to - high level. Demand is cautious, and cost is relatively stable. It is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound, but the trend - based market lacks momentum [7]. Ferromanganese - The main contract rebounded slightly. The fundamentals lack a basis for continuous rebound. Production is in a state of reduction, and demand is affected by factors such as iron - water production and finished - product inventory. Manganese ore prices are expected to stabilize. It is expected that the price will oscillate and bottom - build, and then rebound [7]. 3. Summaries by Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have increased. The basis and spreads also show certain changes [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices have increased, while some costs and profits of steel products have decreased, such as the profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions [1]. Supply - The daily average iron - water production has a slight increase, while the production of five major steel products and rebar has decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils has a slight increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products and rebar has increased, while the inventory change shows a certain trend [1]. Demand - Building material trading volume has a slight increase, but the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils has decreased [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore varieties such as warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices have increased, and the basis and spreads have changed significantly [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports and global shipment volume have decreased, while monthly import volume has a slight decrease [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills has a slight increase, and monthly pig iron and crude - steel production have increased significantly [4]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills have decreased [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke products in different regions and contracts have changed, and the basis and spreads have also adjusted. The coking profit has increased [6]. Supply - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills has a slight decrease [6]. Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills has a slight increase [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory and the inventory of different sectors, such as coking plants, steel mills, and ports, have decreased [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The supply - demand gap of coke has a certain change [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different forms and contracts have changed, and the basis and spreads have also adjusted. The sample coal - mine profit has a slight decrease [6]. Supply - The production of domestic coal mines is at a relatively high level, and the import volume of coking coal has changed due to various factors [6]. Demand - Downstream users purchase coking coal on - demand as the blast - furnace and coking - plant operations increase [6]. Inventory - The coal - mine inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, while the port inventory decreases, and the downstream inventory is at a low level [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The main - contract price of ferrosilicon futures has increased, and the prices of spot products in different regions and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia has decreased, and the production profit has increased. The Lanzhou - charcoal price remains stable [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon has increased slightly, and the production - enterprise start - up rate has increased [7]. Demand - The iron - water production remains high, but the downstream demand for procurement is cautious. The overseas demand has changes in quotation and inquiry [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises has decreased, and the average available days for downstream users have decreased [7]. Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The main - contract price of ferromanganese futures has increased, and the prices of spot products in different regions and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia has decreased slightly, and the production profit has increased. The prices of manganese ore from different sources remain stable [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The weekly shipment volume of manganese ore has decreased, while the arrival volume and port - clearance volume have increased [7]. Manganese Ore Inventory - The port inventory of manganese ore has decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferromanganese has decreased, and the start - up rate has decreased [7]. Demand - The demand for ferromanganese has a slight decrease, and the procurement volume of a large enterprise remains stable [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has increased, and the average available days have increased slightly [7].

Report Date - The report is dated May 13, 2025 [1][5] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trend intensities of each commodity to predict their price movements [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price is affected by the progress of Sino-US trade. The trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][5][9] - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend intensity is -1 [2][5][9] Base Metals - **Copper**: The strong LME copper spot price supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [2][11][13] - **Aluminum**: Expected to trade weakly in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 0 [2][14][16] - **Alumina**: Likely to consolidate at a low level. The trend intensity is 0 [2][14][16] - **Zinc**: The fundamentals show inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to tariff disturbances. The trend intensity is -1 [2][17][18] - **Lead**: With weak supply and demand, the price will adjust within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [2][20][21] - **Tin**: Expected to trade in a narrow range. The trend intensity is -1 [2][23][26] - **Nickel**: News affects market sentiment, but the fundamentals change little. The trend intensity is 0 [2][27][32] - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory increases marginally, and the cost expectation supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [2][27][32] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Although the tariff situation eases, the export profit remains in the red. The trend intensity is 0 [2][33][35] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is expected to open high and close low. The trend intensity is -1 [2][36][39] - **Polysilicon**: The news of production cuts drives the price higher. The trend intensity is 1 [2][37][39] - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuates widely due to changing expectations. The trend intensity is 0 [2][40][42] - **Rebar**: The price rebounds from a low level boosted by macro sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [2][44][46] - **Hot-Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the price rebounds from a low level due to macro sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [2][44][46] - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The main production areas announce maintenance plans, and the price is expected to be strong in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 1 [2][47][50] - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The port quotes show a strong willingness to increase, and the price is expected to be strong in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 1 [2][47][50] - **Coke**: The sentiment recovers, and the price fluctuates widely. The trend intensity is 0 [2][52][56] - **Coking Coal**: Similar to coke, the sentiment recovers, and the price fluctuates widely. The trend intensity is 0 [2][53][56] - **Steam Coal**: The coal mine inventory increases, and the price is expected to be weak in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 0 [2][57][59] - **Log**: The price fluctuates repeatedly boosted by macro expectations. The trend intensity is 0 [2][60][63] - **Para-Xylene**: The price is expected to be strong unilaterally [2][64] - **PTA**: The strategy is to go long on PX and short on PTA [2][64] - **MEG**: The strategy is to go long on PTA and short on MEG [2][64] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The pressure is released periodically, and there may be support at the bottom [2][4][64] - **Soybean Oil**: The tariff expectation eases, and the macro impact is evident [2][4][64] - **Soybean Meal**: The trade friction eases, and the US soybean price rises, so the Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2][4][66] - **Soybean**: The price rebounds and fluctuates [2][4][66] - **Corn**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile range [2][4][68] - **Sugar**: The price will consolidate within a range [2][4][69] - **Cotton**: The optimistic market sentiment drives the cotton futures price to rebound [2][4][70] - **Egg**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile range [2][4][72] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the contradiction to be released [2][4][73] - **Peanut**: The spot price is strong [2][4][74]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/13 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘多数上涨，能源化工品普遍上涨，苯乙烯涨 3.05%，丁二烯橡胶涨 2.69%，纸浆涨 2.38%，燃油涨 2.36%，PTA 涨 2.11%，20 号胶涨 1.91%。黑色系涨跌不一，铁矿石涨 1.77%，螺纹钢涨 1.28%，热卷涨 1.1%。农产品多数上涨，棉花涨 1.26%，豆二涨 1.02%，棉纱涨近 1%。基本金属 涨跌不一，沪锡涨 1.33%，沪铝涨 0.91%，沪镍跌 1.26%。沪金跌 2.52%，沪银 跌 0.75%。 2. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 1.54%，报 61.96 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 1.63%，报 64.95 美元/桶。分析师指出，OPEC+增产节奏加快及地 缘政治风险缓和共同推动油价上行，但需关注美国库存数据变化对供需平衡的 影响。 3. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 3.06%报 3241.80 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.36%报 32.80 美 ...

日报 | 2025-05-13 中美关税会谈取得进展，甲醇价格回升 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤420元/吨（-10），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润790元/吨（+30）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2105元/吨（+10），内蒙北线基差435元/吨（-33），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2348元/吨（-3）， 鲁南基差278元/吨（-46）；河南2300元/吨（+0），河南基差230元/吨（-43）；河北2250元/吨（-75），河北基差240 元/吨（-118）。隆众内地工厂库存303910吨（+20560），西北工厂库存192000吨（+21000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 237780吨（-11850），西北工厂待发订单120000吨（+7200）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2422元/吨（+22），太仓基差152元/吨（-21），CFR中国264美元/吨（+1），华东进口价差61元/ 吨（+11），常州甲醇2455元/吨；广东甲醇2382元/吨（+17），广东基差112元/吨（-26）。隆众港口总库存561870吨 （+24470），江苏港口库存230000吨（-1 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 沪铜上涨，中美会谈取得实质性进展推动市场乐观情绪，盘后发布的联合公告显 示中美均将双方关税降至了可贸易范畴内，短期关税对双方经济的冲击担忧均下 降，利多风险资产。05 合约交割临近，在 05-06back 依旧维持在 300+情况下，现 货市场转为贴水报价，但若贴水扩大或将带动交割情绪上升，考虑到 5 月有累库 预期且日内公布的库存累库 0.3 万吨，预计本次交割能顺利完成，5 月国内产量 继续增加而需求放缓，预计盘面高 BACK 结构难持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unexpected consensus on tariff reduction between China and the US in the Geneva economic and trade talks is expected to boost the short - term sentiment of the domestic A - share market and industrial products in commodities, especially those close to the export end. However, there is a possibility that the US may take further actions after a 90 - day period [7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Reaction - After the A - share market closed yesterday, the three major US stock indexes recorded their largest daily gains in a month, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 5.40%. The US dollar index and the offshore RMB increased, while US Treasury bonds and gold declined [7]. 2. Sector - Specific Analysis PTA - The unilateral trend is oscillating strongly. With the unexpected tariff reduction, the view on the monthly spread is revised, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread should be exited. PTA is in a situation of decreasing supply and increasing demand, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to short the PTA processing fee at high prices, and the unilateral price is strongly affected by oil prices and is generally oscillating strongly [9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The unexpected good news of China - US tariffs drives the sentiment - based repair of the market. It is advisable to enter the 6 - 8 reverse spread and hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread lightly. The freight rate on the European line is not likely to increase significantly in late June, and there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August [10]. Styrene - Pure benzene is still in a weak trend, and in the short - term, it enters a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Styrene should be shorted at high prices, and the profit of styrene should be compressed. Attention should be paid to the downstream production cut and inventory accumulation in the second half of May and the process of the hidden inventory of styrene factories becoming explicit [13]. Cotton - Despite the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures due to the better - than - expected result of the China - US economic and trade talks, due to sufficient supply of old - crop cotton and expected increase in new - crop production, as well as the lack of short - term and long - term growth expectations for cotton demand, cotton futures lack a continuous upward driving force and are expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. 3. Individual Commodity Analysis Precious Metals - Gold: Affected by the progress in China - US trade, the trend intensity is - 1. - Silver: It is oscillating downwards, and the trend intensity is - 1 [20][24]. Base Metals - Copper: The strong spot price of LME copper supports the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [26]. - Aluminum: It is oscillating weakly, and the trend intensity is 0. Alumina is consolidating at a low level, and the trend intensity is 0 [29]. - Zinc: There is inventory accumulation in the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to tariff disturbances. The trend intensity is - 1 [32]. - Lead: It has weak supply and demand and is adjusting within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [35]. - Tin: It is oscillating within a narrow range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [38]. - Nickel: The news affects the sentiment, but the fundamentals change little. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel has a marginal increase in social inventory, and the disk is supported by cost expectations. The trend intensity is 0 [42]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Although the tariff impact is mitigated, the export profit is still in the red. The trend intensity is 0 [47]. - Industrial Silicon: The disk is expected to open high and go low. The trend intensity is - 1. - Polysilicon: The news of production cuts is fermenting, and the disk is running strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [50]. Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The expectations are fluctuating, and it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. - Rebar: The macro - sentiment boosts it, and it rebounds from a low level. The trend intensity is 1. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The macro - sentiment boosts it, and it rebounds from a low level. The trend intensity is 1 [58]. - Ferrosilicon: The main production areas have announced maintenance plans, and it is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1. - Silicomanganese: The port quotation has a strong willingness to increase, and it is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [61]. - Coke: The sentiment is being repaired, and it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0. - Coking Coal: The sentiment is being repaired, and it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0 [66]. - Steam Coal: The coal mine inventory is increasing, and it is oscillating weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [71]. Others - Logs: Boosted by macro - expectations, it is oscillating repeatedly [74].

此外，多家研究机构和媒体也做了相关测算，本届美国政府累计对华新增关税税率将降至30%，中国方 面也将对美新增关税税率从125%下降到了10%。 中美双方是否会就关税等问题作进一步磋商？商务部新闻发言人表示，双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商 机制，就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通，开展进一步磋商。中方代表是国务院副总理何立峰，美方代 表是财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔。双方将定期或不定期轮流在中国、美国开展磋商，或在商定的 第三国开展磋商。根据需要，双方可就相关经贸议题开展工作层面磋商。 （文章来源：南方都市报） 南都讯记者杨文君发自北京 北京时间5月12日下午3时，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》正式公布， 中美双方承诺于5月14日前采取举措，同步调整关税税率。 根据联合声明，美方承诺取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中 国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令对中国商品加征的34%的对等关 税，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。相应地，中方取消对美国商品加征的共计 91%的反制关税；针对美对等关税的34%反制关 ...