Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its current interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with market participants uncertain about future rate cuts, particularly in 2026, amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates that the Eurozone is regaining growth momentum, with a notable improvement in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reaching a 17-month high of 52.2, despite concerns over political instability in France and weaker data from Germany [3][10]. - The inflation rate is hovering near the ECB's target, and the current interest rates are considered to be on a neutral trajectory, which has alleviated concerns regarding a downturn in Eurozone economic activity [3]. Market Expectations - The probability of the ECB restarting a rate cut cycle in 2026 has decreased to slightly below 50%, as traders reassess their positions following recent economic developments and statements from President Trump regarding trade agreements with China [2]. - MUFG's economist Cook maintains a forecast for further monetary easing by the ECB in 2026, citing potential fiscal stimulus from Germany and ongoing global trade uncertainties as factors that could keep inflation below the ECB's target [2][10]. Future Outlook - The ECB's upcoming meeting is anticipated to be a "low-key monetary policy meeting," focusing on inflation risk assessments and the implications of forthcoming economic data releases, including the preliminary GDP figures for Q3 and inflation data for Germany and the Eurozone [3]. - Cook predicts that the ECB may consider reinitiating rate cuts if inflation remains below the 2% target and the labor market shows signs of weakness, particularly in the context of a stronger Euro impacting import prices [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's mid - term liquidity net injection in October reached 600 million yuan, maintaining a relatively high level, showing a moderately loose monetary policy orientation [4] - With the gradual alleviation of unfavorable factors in trade frictions, stock indices may return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of stock indices is expected to be limited. The strategy is to mainly choose opportunities to go long on stock indices [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Interest Rates and Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.45 with a 13.11bp increase, DR007 at 1.58 with a 17.11bp increase, GC001 at 1.41 with a 1.50bp increase, and GC007 at 1.64 with a 6.50bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a 0.10bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.37 with a 2.00bp decrease, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.59 with a 1.20bp decrease, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.84 with a 0.85bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 3.98 with a 2.70bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 337.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 27, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After offsetting the 189 billion yuan of matured reverse repurchases, the net investment on the day was 148.3 billion yuan [3] - The central bank carried out 900 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations in October. After offsetting the 700 billion yuan of matured MLF, the net investment of MLF this month was 20 billion yuan, and it was the 8th consecutive month of incremental roll - over [4] - In addition to MLF, the central bank conducted 1700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases in October, and achieved a net investment of 400 billion yuan after offsetting the 1300 billion yuan of matured outright reverse repurchases [4] Stock Index Futures Market - On October 27, the CSI 300 rose 1.19% to 4716, the SSE 50 rose 0.78% to 3070, the CSI 500 rose 1.67% to 7379, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.03% to 7495 [5] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with sectors such as electronic chemicals, small metals, shipbuilding, energy metals, semiconductors, iron and steel, and electronic components leading the gains, while wind power equipment and game sectors leading the losses [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2340.1 billion yuan, a significant increase of 365.9 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day [5] - For stock index futures, IF's current - month contract closed at 4701 with a 1.1% increase, IH's current - month contract closed at 3067 with a 0.6% increase, IC's current - month contract closed at 7310 with a 1.4% increase, and IM's current - month contract closed at 7399 with a 0.4% increase [5] - IF's trading volume was 113332, a 2.5% decrease; its open interest was 262244, a 2.7% increase. IH's trading volume was 56298, a 4.5% decrease; its open interest was 98162, a 3.0% increase. IC's trading volume was 136694, a 0.8% decrease; its open interest was 252585, a 3.7% increase. IM's trading volume was 214742, a 4.3% decrease; its open interest was 358844, a 2.8% increase [5] - The premium/discount rates of IF were 4.65% for the current - month contract, 4.62% for the next - month contract, 3.23% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.14% for the next - quarter contract. For IH, they were 1.01%, 0.61%, 0.03%, and 0.11% respectively. For IC, they were 13.65%, 11.67%, 10.18%, and 10.02% respectively. For IM, they were 18.70%, 15.88%, 13.19%, and 12.51% respectively [7] International Trade and Market Impact - On October 26, the China - US economic and trade teams concluded a two - day consultation in Kuala Lumpur. After the talks, the US Treasury Secretary said that the two sides reached a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing a 100% tariff on China [6]

Group 1: Market Observations - The resumption of government bond trading is linked to a reasonable short-term yield level, with the current 10-year bond yield at approximately 1.8423%, up from a low of 1.5958% earlier this year[11] - The central bank's actions in the bond market may indicate a shift in liquidity management, particularly if the scale of re-lending decreases during bond purchases[12] - A significant increase in bank holdings of government bonds during the central bank's bond purchases could positively impact total liquidity, including M1 and non-bank deposits[13] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The necessity for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is low, as current policies are aimed at managing production credit rather than increasing bank lending capacity[23] - The probability of lowering policy interest rates in the short term is also low, as this could accelerate the outflow of household deposits into financial markets, potentially increasing systemic risk[26] - There is a possibility of a reduction in the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which could help lower household debt costs and stabilize housing prices[26] Group 3: Capital Market Implications - The strength of the equity market this year is attributed to reduced volatility and drawdown, with liquidity support from the central bank creating a floor for equity prices[27] - The resumption of government bond trading sets a framework for short-term interest rates, but the bond market may still face pressure if economic conditions improve[27] - Historical trends suggest that a dual bull market in stocks and bonds requires sustained liquidity support from the central bank, with current deposit shifts likely to influence asset prices rapidly[28]

Economic Developments - China and the U.S. held economic consultations in Kuala Lumpur, focusing on key trade issues including maritime logistics and agricultural trade[3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 900 billion CNY Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased MLF operations[4] Financial Market Trends - The overall liquidity in the financial market remained balanced, but the bond market weakened due to strong stock market performance[1] - As of October 24, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 1.20 basis points to 1.8450%[15] Credit Market Insights - By the end of Q3, the total outstanding loans in RMB reached 270.39 trillion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, down from 7.1% at the end of Q2[7] - The growth rate of loans to small and micro enterprises increased by 12.2%, while loans to technology-based SMEs surged by 22.3%[7] Inflation and Interest Rates - In the U.S., the September Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating a slower inflation rate than expected[8] - The PBOC's net liquidity injection for October is projected to reach 600 billion CNY, maintaining a high level of monetary policy support[4] Bond Market Activity - On October 24, the bond market saw a general decline, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 1.20 basis points[15] - The issuance of government bonds included a 20 billion CNY bond with a bid yield of 1.8049% and a coverage ratio of 3.36[17] Commodity Prices - As of October 24, WTI crude oil futures fell by 0.47% to $61.50 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.08% to $65.94 per barrel[10]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 10 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜价震荡走高，国内震荡偏强，国内精炼铜现货进口窗口保持关闭状态。宏 | | | 观方面，特朗普延长美墨两国就贸易、安全和移民问题达成协议的最后期限，但"一段 | | | 时间"内不重启美加谈判。另外，美国与马来西亚和柬埔寨签署了贸易协议，与泰国和 | | | 越南达成了框架协议。国内方面，国务院关于金融工作情况的报告指出，要落实落细适 | | | 度宽松的货币政策，为巩固拓展经济回升向好势头营造适宜的货币金融环境；继续聚 | | | 焦科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等重点方向 精准有效推进金融支持重点 | | | 产业提质升级。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 375 吨至 135975 吨；comex 铜下降 200 吨 | | | 至 315468 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 321 吨至 35392 吨，BC 铜下降 1831 吨至 11059 吨。 | | 铜 | 需求方面，铜价延续高位，下游订单下降，同时影响中端加工，现货采购也存在放缓迹 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will resume open market operations for government bond trading to support market demand and implement a moderately loose monetary policy [1] Group 1: Background - The peak of government bond issuance has passed, and current bond purchases aim to protect demand and avoid excessive volatility in the bond market, which could hinder the transmission of policies to lower overall financing costs [1] - The overall operation of the bond market is stable, and the direct impact of PBOC's bond purchases on the market is manageable [1] - Economic pressures persist, and purchasing bonds to inject liquidity is a necessary aspect of implementing a moderately loose policy [1] Group 2: Pathways - The PBOC may purchase bonds from bank inventories or in the secondary market [1] - Direct purchases from primary dealers' inventories can effectively target liquidity injection with minimal market impact, likely leading to a simultaneous reduction in reserve requirements [1] - Alternatively, purchasing bonds in the secondary market can provide liquidity to a broader range of entities, aligning with future monetary policy frameworks [1] Group 3: Direction - In the short term, net purchases of bonds are expected to dominate [1] - Given the constraints on social credit expansion due to weak economic momentum, government credit expansion remains a crucial driver for economic development [1] - The PBOC's bond trading tools can be used for both buying and selling, with future sales depending on actual needs [1] Group 4: Scale - The expected monthly net purchases of government bonds may not significantly exceed those in 2024 [1] - With government bond issuance for 2025 nearing completion, the demand for monetary policy support is expected to weaken [1] - The bond trading tools can largely be substituted by MLF and reverse repos, suggesting that while bond purchase scales may expand, it could coincide with a reduction in MLF and reverse repo operations [1] Group 5: Impact - Short-term effects may provide a temporary boost, but the positive impact may not be sustainable, with medium to long-term effects likely being neutral [1] - In 2024, PBOC's bond purchases contributed to lowering short-term rates and somewhat facilitated long-term declines, indicating a cautious approach in future bond trading implementation and communication with the market [1] - The core issue in the bond market remains the cost-effectiveness of fixed-income assets, with limited short-term upside for long-duration assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's accelerated process of selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair, aiming to finalize the choice by the end of the year, which could allow the White House to influence monetary policy ahead of the new chair's official term starting in May [3][4]. Candidate Selection - Trump is currently choosing from five final candidates to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. The candidates include current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder [3][5]. - Hassett and Warsh are viewed as frontrunners due to their close relationships with Trump, which is seen as a key factor in winning the nomination [5][6]. Implications of Early Appointment - The potential new chair is likely to fill the seat currently held by Stephen Miran, whose term ends in January. This allows the new chair to participate in the March and April rate-setting meetings before officially taking office [4][7]. - Early appointment could enable the new chair to influence investor expectations regarding interest rate paths, but it may also create awkward situations for the successor, who might have to publicly challenge decisions made by their future colleagues [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, which will support the prices of treasury bond futures. Given the complex and severe external environment and the weak demand side represented by the real estate sector in China, the central bank governor has stated that a supportive monetary policy stance will be maintained, and open - market treasury bond trading operations will be resumed [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2512 contract rose 0.16%, and its position increased. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of various treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - The position and trading volume data of different treasury bond futures contracts (TS2512, TS2603, TF2512, etc.) are presented, along with their price changes, position changes, and cross - period spreads [2]. Spot Market - On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally increased. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 12.8bp, DR007 rate rose 18.02bp, and GC007 rate rose 5.4bp [2]. - Yields of China's key - term treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10Y treasury bond yield decreased by 0.9bp to 1.84%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 29.13bp [2]. - In overseas markets, the 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield increased by 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield increased by 1.6bp [2]. Macro News - The central bank conducted 3373 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 27, with a net investment of 1483 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount [3]. - At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration director Li Yunze, and CSRC chairman Wu Qing made important statements regarding monetary policy, financial service models, and capital market reforms [3]. - Premier Li Qiang attended the fifth RCEP leaders' meeting, emphasizing the need for RCEP parties to collaborate and support the accession of applicants such as Hong Kong, China [3]. - In September, the profits of China's industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 21.6% year - on - year, accelerating from August. From January to September, the profit growth of these enterprises continued to recover [3]. - By the end of September 2025, the number of national financing platforms and the scale of outstanding operating financial debts decreased by 71% and 62% respectively compared to March 2023. As of now, over 5 trillion yuan of government bonds have been issued to replace hidden debts [3]. Industry Information - Most money market interest rates increased. For example, the 1 - day and 7 - day weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank lending all rose [3]. - US treasury bond yields collectively declined. For instance, the 2 - year yield fell 0.64bp, and the 10 - year yield fell 3.46bp [3]. - The 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield declined to 1.8355%. The central bank conducted 9000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2000 billion yuan for the month, but the Shibor short - end varieties mostly increased, and the capital market tightened [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4000-point mark for the first time in 10 years, indicating a potential recovery in investor confidence and market sentiment [1]. Market Performance - On October 28, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000.11, marking an increase of 3.17 points or 0.08% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 29.46 points, closing at 13518.86, reflecting a 0.22% increase [1]. - The ChiNext Index increased by 23.79 points, closing at 3258.25, which is a 0.74% rise [1]. - The STAR Market 50 Index also saw a positive movement, closing at 1493.05 with an increase of 8.85 points or 0.60% [1]. - The overall market sentiment is positive, as indicated by the performance of various indices, with the Wande All A Index rising by 11.10 points to close at 6406.83, a 0.17% increase [1]. Historical Context - The last time the Shanghai Composite Index was above 4000 points was on August 18, 2015, when it reached a peak of 4006.34 points [2]. - The index has shown a consistent upward trend recently, with the highest point recorded on October 27, 2025, at 3999.07, just below the 4000-point threshold [2].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance, implementing measures to enhance personal credit repair, and improving macro-prudential management in the real estate sector, which are expected to positively impact market liquidity and consumer purchasing power [1][3][4]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC will continue to adopt a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to provide liquidity across short, medium, and long terms, while ensuring relatively loose social financing conditions [2][5]. - Recent monetary policy actions include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, leading to a historical low of 3.5% for the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [5]. Personal Credit Repair - A new personal credit relief policy is being developed to assist individuals who have defaulted on loans due to COVID-19-related hardships but have since repaid their debts. This policy aims to remove certain negative credit records from the credit system, facilitating access to financing for affected individuals [2][4]. - The implementation of this policy is planned for early next year, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and restore consumer confidence [4]. Real Estate Financial Management - The PBOC is enhancing macro-prudential management tools related to real estate finance, including adjustments to down payment ratios and mortgage interest rates, to better control risks and support housing demand [2][7]. - Recent adjustments have seen the down payment ratio for first and second homes reduced to a minimum of 15%, with the authority to set interest rates now delegated to local governments [7]. Market Impact - The combination of loose monetary policy and credit repair initiatives is anticipated to lower financing costs and improve liquidity for market participants, aiding those affected by credit issues in regaining loan eligibility [9]. - These coordinated policies are expected to help stabilize market expectations and contribute to a recovery in the real estate market [9].