1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with semiconductor stocks performing strongly. However, the four major stock index futures contracts declined, and it is expected that the market will enter a high - level shock to wait for the decision of the direction. [2][3][4] - The sentiment in the bond market is fragile, and the performance of treasury bond futures was weak in the afternoon, affected by the stock market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider a curve - steepening strategy. [5][6] - For precious metals, due to the divergence among Fed officials and political pressure on some officials, investors' concerns have reignited, and precious metals prices rebounded. It is recommended to use bull - spread strategies for gold and maintain a low - buying mindset for silver. [8][9][10] - The container shipping futures are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract. [13] - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are mainly in a state of shock, affected by factors such as macro - economic data, supply and demand fundamentals, and inventory levels. [14][17][22] - The steel market maintains a shock pattern, with the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil showing differentiation. Iron ore and coking coal prices will follow the trend of steel products, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. [41][43][46] - For agricultural products, the long - term outlook for meal products is positive, while the prices of live pigs are affected by factors such as consumption and the epidemic, and the corn market is under supply pressure and shows a weak trend. [54][56][61] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The A - share market opened low and rose high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04%. The four major stock index futures contracts declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated neutrally. [2][3] - **News**: In July, China's general public budget revenue increased year - on - year, and overseas news mainly involved the US's stance on Ukraine and the expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs. [3][4] - **Funding**: On August 20, the trading volume of A - shares decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 49.75 billion yuan. [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions. [4] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures contracts closed down, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose. [5] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 49.75 billion yuan. The inter - bank liquidity became balanced in the afternoon. [5][6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term and consider a curve - steepening strategy. [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **News**: The US and China had a good dialogue on economic and trade issues. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed internal differences, and there were political incidents involving Fed officials. [7][8] - **Market Performance**: Precious metals prices rebounded after a decline, with international gold rising 0.99% and international silver rising 1.41%. [9] - **Outlook and Suggestion**: There is still a demand for hedging in the market. It is recommended to use bull - spread strategies for gold and maintain a low - buying mindset for silver. [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: The spot quotes of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows a decline in the European line index and an increase in the US - West line index. [12] - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity has increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US is at a certain level. [12] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The spot price is in a downward phase, which may put pressure on the futures price. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract. [13] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the actual transaction was limited. [14] - **Macro**: The short - term trading focus is on the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the US inflation data affects the expectation. [14][17] - **Supply**: The TC of copper concentrates increased slightly, and the production of refined copper increased in July. It is expected to decrease slightly in August. [15] - **Demand**: The operating rate of copper rod processing showed a mixed trend, and the overall demand was resilient. [16] - **Inventory**: COMEX and domestic social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased. [16] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The copper price is mainly in a range - bound state, with the main contract reference range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. [17] Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: The spot price showed a north - south differentiation, with the north under pressure and the south supported. [17] - **Supply**: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in July, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. [18] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt registration increased. [18] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The market is in a state of slight surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term. [19] Aluminum - **Spot**: The average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium increased. [20] - **Supply**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in July, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased. [20] - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream industries increased slightly, but it is still in the off - season. [20] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. [21] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [22] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged. [23] - **Supply**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased in July, and it is expected to remain stable in August. [23] - **Demand**: The demand was under pressure in July, and it is expected to improve marginally in late August. [23][24] - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased. [23] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract reference range is 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. [24] Zinc - **Spot**: The average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the market trading was general. [25] - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increased in July. [26] - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the spot premium was weak. [27] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased. [28] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [28] Tin - **Spot**: The price of 1 tin increased, and the market transaction was dull. [29] - **Supply**: The import of tin ore decreased in July, and the supply is difficult to improve in the short - term. [29] - **Demand**: The demand for solder decreased, and the overall demand is expected to be weak. [30] - **Inventory**: The LME inventory and social inventory decreased. [30] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The tin price is in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see. [31] Nickel - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic nickel decreased. [31] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and is expected to increase slightly. [32] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was general. [32] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly. [32] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The nickel price is expected to adjust in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [33] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased, and the basis increased. [34][35] - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferro - nickel were stable, and the price of ferro - chrome was expected to be strong. [35][37] - **Supply**: The planned production of stainless steel in August is expected to increase. [35] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt increased. [36] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. [37] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price of lithium carbonate remained unchanged, and the transaction improved after the price decline. [38] - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate increased in July and is expected to increase in August. [39] - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, and the seasonal performance is weakened. [39] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly last week. [40] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see and try to go long at low prices. [41] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The futures price first fell and then rose, and the basis strengthened. [41] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost support is expected to weaken, and the profit of steel products decreased. [42] - **Supply**: The production of iron and steel increased in August, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in August - September. [42] - **Demand**: The overall demand for steel increased year - on - year, but the demand for rebar decreased this period. [42] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased this week. [43] - **View**: The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and it is recommended to wait and see. [43] Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders showed a mixed trend. [45] - **Futures**: The prices of iron ore futures contracts decreased. [45] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties is provided. [45] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly. [45] - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume decreased. [45] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased. [46] - **View**: The iron ore price is expected to follow the rebound of steel products, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. [46] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price declined, and the prices of some coal types were loosened. [47] - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines showed a mixed trend, and the inventory adjustment slowed down. [47][48] - **Demand**: The coking production increased slightly, and the downstream demand for replenishment weakened. [48][49] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased. [49] - **View**: It is recommended to buy at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 long - spread arbitrage. [49] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price declined, and the sixth - round price increase was implemented, with the seventh - round initiated. [50][51] - **Profit**: The coking profit improved. [50] - **Supply**: The coking production increased slightly. [50] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for coke remained resilient, and the pig iron output is expected to decline slightly in August. [51] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of coke decreased. [51] - **View**: It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 long - spread arbitrage. [51][53] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The prices of soybean meal were stable to weak, and the prices of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal increased. [54] - **Fundamentals**: There were export sales reports of US soybeans, and the export volume forecasts of Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal increased. [54][55] - **Market Outlook**: The long - term outlook for meal products is positive, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. [55][56] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated, and the market sentiment improved. [57] - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding showed a mixed trend, and the average slaughter weight increased. [57][58] - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty in the far - end market. [59] Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price of corn was generally weak, and the trading was light. [60] - **Fundamentals**: The inventories of corn in Guangdong Port and northern four ports decreased. [60][61] - **Market Outlook**: The corn market is under supply pressure and is expected to be weakly volatile. [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On August 20, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net daily injection of 497.5 billion yuan. The new - period LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The central bank's monetary policy continues the loose thinking, which supports short - term Treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect will continue, and bond prices may continue to weaken. The cross - variety spread may also widen due to the resumption of VAT collection on government and financial bonds [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.19%, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally increased. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 1.7bp, DR007 rate rose 1.94bp, and GC007 rate rose 2.5bp [2] Spot Market - On the previous trading day, the yields of key - term Chinese Treasury bonds varied. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 1.7bp to 1.79%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 35.86bp [2] Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10Y US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield decreased by 4bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield increased by 1.4bp [2] Macroeconomic News - The central bank carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations, and the new - period LPR remained unchanged. The People's Bank of China Shanghai Head Office put forward work requirements. The State Council Office forwarded the guidance on standardizing PPP projects. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and the UK's inflation accelerated [3] Industry Information - On August 20, most money - market interest rates increased. US Treasury bond yields mostly declined. The bond market was affected by multiple factors such as macro - news, economic data, and central bank operations [3]

Group 1 - International silver prices rose to $37.89 per ounce, up 1.41%, with a daily high of $37.93 and a low of $36.95, indicating a volatile market influenced by rising consumer prices due to tariff measures [1] - As of August 20, 2025, silver ETF holdings decreased to 15,305.76 tons, down by 33.90 tons from the previous day, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen to around 3%, with tariffs expected to further increase consumer prices, although the Federal Reserve views these tariff impacts as one-time adjustments [2][3] Group 2 - The current economic environment shows that inflation rates have exceeded the 2% target, with price pressures likely to increase in the coming months due to higher tariff costs being passed on by businesses [3] - The labor market is experiencing a slowdown in new population growth, which may limit the expected downward pressure on prices, despite a stable unemployment rate [3] - The silver market is currently in a weak downward trend, with support levels at $36.5 and resistance levels at $37.60 and $37.85, indicating potential future price movements [4]

会议纪要显示，几乎所有的官员都支持维持利率不变，支持派认为，在关税政策对通胀的传导路径尚未明晰前，货币政策应保持观望姿态，而反对派则主张 应提前应对潜在的经济下行风险。两方的分歧导致了7月非农就业数据被大幅下修至11.4万，远低于原来的的20.6万，失业率更是提高到4.3%。 dbg markets盾博发现周四公布的美联储7月政策会议纪要表明了在白宫持续施压降息的下，FOMC以16:2的投票结果决定将基准利率在4.25%-4.5%。 美联储理事沃勒与鲍曼指出，关税引发的价格波动具有一次性特征，不应该成为影响货币政策的主要因素。沃勒更是表示当前通胀水平已接近美联储2%目 标，如果继续维持限制性政策可能加剧经济硬着陆风险。 此次会议纪要首次明确提及"政治压力"对决策的影响。自特朗普政府上台以来，白宫对美联储的干预呈现系统化特征：从要求理事库克辞职到暗示鲍威尔涉 嫌欺诈，从公开质疑美联储独立性到直接施压降息。7月11日，一名政府官员甚至发布声明宣称"鲍威尔辞职迫在眉睫"，尽管随后被证明是空穴来风，但此 类事件已严重损害美联储决策的客观性。 继拜登任命的理事库格勒辞职后，特朗普迅速提名白宫经济顾问史蒂芬·米兰。市场普 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity's trend is described as high - level shock, small decline, range shock, etc., based on their respective fundamentals and market news [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to experience high - level shock. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 772.68, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Comex Gold 2510 rose by 0.99% to 3392.20. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][6]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to have a small decline. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9042, down 1.57%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][5][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price will fluctuate. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,630, down 0.30%. The trend strength is 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,265, up 0.27%. The trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16,725, down 0.59%. The trend strength is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 267,840, down 0.09%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to experience high - level shock. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20,535, down 10. The trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals will cause narrow - range fluctuations, and beware of news - based risks. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,930, down 400. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price will fluctuate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820, down 65. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: The game between reality and expectations intensifies, and the market volatility will increase. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040, down 6,540. The trend strength is 0 [2][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is boosted. The Si2511 closing price was 8,390, down 235. The trend strength is 1 [2][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted. The PS2511 closing price was 51,875, down 385. The trend strength is 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly reversed, and support remains. The trend strength is 1 [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,132, down 12; HC2510 was 3,402, down 21. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment is cold, and both will experience weak - side fluctuations. The closing price of Silicon Ferroalloy 2511 was 5622, down 56; Manganese Ferroalloy 2511 was 5818, down 80. The trend strength for both is - 1 [2][47]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of JM2601 was 1162.5, down 32; J2601 was 1678, down 30.5. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][50]. - **Log**: The price will fluctuate repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 805.5, down 0.6%. The trend strength is 0 [2][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: Crude oil rebounds, demand improves, and it is unilaterally strong. The closing price of the PX main contract was 6844, up 1.03%. - **PTA**: Cost provides support, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4778, up 0.93%. - **MEG**: There is an expectation of overseas supply contraction, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4477, up 1.20% [2][57]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Fundamentals provide strong support, and go long on macro - pullbacks. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it will experience high - level shock consolidation. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, rapeseed meal was weak, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate. - **Soybean No.1**: Will experience weak - side fluctuations. - **Corn**: Will operate weakly. - **Sugar**: Will be strong with fluctuations. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the listing situation of new cotton. - **Egg**: Pay attention to the culling rhythm of old hens. - **Live Pig**: Wait for the end - of - month spot verification. - **Peanut**: Near - term contracts are strong, and far - term contracts are weak [2][4].

他补充说，与此同时，美国就业市场正闪烁着开始加速恶化的迹象。美国7月份新增的就业岗位远少于 预期，而5月和6月的就业增长数据也被集体下修了25.8万个。 所有目光都聚焦鲍威尔 埃里安说，鲍威尔近年来的货币政策方法与过去的美联储主席有所不同。从80年代末到21世纪初担任美 联储主席的格林斯潘，在90年代通胀走高时没有加息，部分原因是他看到了美国生产力的蓬勃发展，埃 里安说，这"绝对是"正确的决定。 埃里安说，大金融危机前几年接管美联储的伯南克，在21世纪初通胀上升时也放慢了加息步伐，因为他 看到了经济正在放缓。他补充道，"这（鲍威尔）是第一位几乎完全是后视的美联储主席。而这正是问 题所在。" 自上台以来，特朗普几乎每周都在批评美联储的负责人，但一位顶级经济学家认为，特朗普最喜欢用来 描述鲍威尔的一个形容词可能是有道理的："为时已晚。" 安联集团的首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）认为，鲍威尔可能在降息问题上行动得 太晚了的这个想法，是可信的。 在周三接受采访时，近年来经常警告衰退风险的埃里安表示，他认为美联储上个月就应该降息了。 "现在我们开始看到过度依赖数据的问题了，"埃里安在谈 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range; silver is likely to decline slightly [2][4]. - Copper lacks a clear driver, and its price will oscillate [2][11]. - Zinc will trade within a range [2][14]. - The decreasing inventory of lead will support its price [2][17]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][20]. - Aluminum will trade in a high - level range; alumina will rise slightly in a sideways movement; cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - Nickel will have a narrow - range oscillation based on fundamental logic, and investors should be wary of news - related risks; stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing prices of沪金2510 and黄金T+D decreased by 0.31% and 0.33% respectively, while Comex黄金2510 increased by 0.99%. For silver,沪银2510 and白银T+D decreased by 1.57% and 1.74% respectively, and Comex白银2510 increased by 1.48%. The trading volumes and open interests of some contracts also changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of ETFs, domestic and foreign exchanges showed different trends, such as a decrease in SPDR黄金ETF持仓 by 4 and an increase in Comex白银库存 by 600,232 ounces [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook; Fed's potential payment innovation with the industry; China's August LPR remained unchanged [5][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1; silver trend intensity is - 1 [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 decreased by 0.30% during the day and increased by 0.13% at night; the closing price of伦铜3M电子盘 increased by 0.38%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪铜 decreased by 275 tons, and that of伦铜 increased by 1,200 tons. Various spreads such as LME铜升贴水 and现货 - to - futures spreads also changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged; PT Smelting's maintenance was extended; Codelco's smelter restarted; Glencore applied for investment incentives; China's July copper imports data were released [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [13]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪锌主力 increased by 0.27%, and that of伦锌3M电子盘 decreased by 0.50%. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various spreads also changed [14]. - **News**: The US PPI reached 3.3%, and the growth rate of M2 was approaching 5%, which might lead to inflation [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪铅主力 decreased by 0.59%, and that of伦铅3M电子盘 decreased by 0.33%. The inventory of沪铅 and伦铅 decreased, and other data such as trading volume, open interest, and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [18]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锡主力 decreased by 0.09% during the day and 0.23% at night; the closing price of伦锡3M电子盘 increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪锡 decreased by 184 tons, and that of伦锡 increased by 85 tons. Various spreads also changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including Fed's meeting minutes, Trump's pressure on the Fed, etc. [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [24]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Related Data**: For aluminum,沪铝主力 and LME铝3M prices changed; for alumina,沪氧化铝主力 price changed. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, spreads, and enterprise profits also changed [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's August LPR remained unchanged; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0 [27]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Industry Chain Data**: The closing prices of沪镍主力 and不锈钢主力 changed. Various data in the industrial chain such as import profit, spreads, and raw material prices also changed [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, including potential export suspension, project production, environmental violations, and production suspension; a steel mill in Shandong reduced production [28][31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [33].

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed that most officials emphasized inflation risks over labor market concerns, leading to a split in opinions regarding tariff policies [2] - Following the release of the minutes, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 92% to 81%, with market focus shifting to Powell's speech at the central bank's annual meeting [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish signal with prices breaking above the 60/120-day moving averages, with support at $3335 and resistance at $3358 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 601.4 thousand barrels, contrasting with expectations of a decline of 175.9 thousand barrels [4] - The IEA forecasts that global oil production will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025, reaching 105.5 million barrels, and will further rise by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] - Despite the significant drop in inventories, oil prices remain weak due to an oversupply situation, with prices fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and Dollar Index - The Nasdaq index showed a bearish trend with a strong rebound near the support level of 22970, focusing on potential reversal signals in the 23100-23300 range [7] - The Dollar Index experienced a spinning top candlestick pattern, with a brief rise into the 98.30-98.65 range before a slight pullback, indicating a focus on testing the 98.50 level [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market conditions. It shows a complex economic situation with various factors influencing different markets, such as central bank policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year (4.7%). The manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July was 50.1%, lower than the previous month (50.5%) and similar to the same period last year (50.2%) [1]. - In July 2025, M1 had a year - on - year growth of 5.6%, up from 4.6% in the previous month and a significant improvement from - 2.6% in the same period last year. M2 grew by 8.8% year - on - year, higher than the previous month (8.3%) and the same period last year (6.3%) [1]. - The CPI in July 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 0%, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% in the same period last year. The PPI in July was - 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than - 0.8% in the same period last year [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year and above at 3.5%. The stability is due to the unchanged 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, the pricing basis for LPR [2]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [3]. Metals - On August 20, international precious metal futures generally rose. Policy differences within the Fed and uncertainties in the inflation outlook brought volatility to the precious metal market. The SPDR Gold Trust's (GLD) holdings decreased by 0.42% (4.01 tons) to 958.20 tons as of August 20 [4][5]. - On August 19, tin inventory increased by 85 tons to 1715 tons, zinc inventory decreased to a new low in over 1 year and 9 months (71250 tons), copper inventory reached a new high in over 2 months (156350 tons), and lead inventory decreased by 1850 tons [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In Shandong, coke prices were planned to increase on August 19. The resumption of production of Yichun Yinli led to a sharp drop in lithium carbonate futures. The US expanded the tariff list for steel and aluminum derivatives, which may have a greater impact on China's indirect exports [6]. - India's coal production in July decreased by 12.3% year - on - year, natural gas production decreased by 3.2%, and steel production increased by 12.8% [6]. Energy and Chemicals - On August 20, the main contract of US crude oil rose. The significant decline in US crude oil inventory and the expected recovery of Asian demand supported oil prices. The market's concern about the increase in Russian oil supply eased [8]. Agricultural Products - India exempted cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30. US exporters sold 228606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Datagro estimated Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production at 1.691 billion tons and corn production at 1.269 billion tons [9]. Financial News Open Market - On August 20, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 49.75 billion yuan after 118.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [10]. Key News - China's new LPR remained unchanged for three months. It is expected that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in early Q4, which may drive down LPR [11]. - The US Treasury Secretary was satisfied with the current tariff level on China. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs hoped that the US would work with China to achieve positive results in economic and trade consultations [11]. Bond Market - The stock market's rebound in the afternoon suppressed the bond market. Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose by 1 - 2bp, and most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank's increased reverse repurchase operations eased the liquidity tightness [16]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1793 against the US dollar at 16:30, and the central parity rate was 7.1384. The US dollar index fell 0.03% to 98.25 in New York trading [21]. Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed Income believed that the "anti - involution" market could still be expected. It suggested investors pay attention to certain convertible bonds such as Wanfu Convertible Bond and Tong 22 Convertible Bond [22][23]. - CITIC Securities recommended the credit sector with "defensive" attributes, especially AA - and above rated city and rural commercial bank perpetual and subordinated bonds [23]. Stock Market - On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04% to 3766.21 points and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.89%. The semiconductor industry chain led the rise, while some concepts such as stock trading software and brain - computer interface adjusted [26]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.17% to 25165.94 points. The securities sector has performed well since August, with the industry index rising over 7% and 8 stocks rising over 10% [26]. - As the A - share semi - annual report disclosure entered the intensive period, over 140 companies announced semi - annual dividend plans, with a total planned dividend amount exceeding 100 billion yuan [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, while silver is expected to experience a slight decline [1] - The trend strength of gold is 1, indicating a relatively weak positive outlook; the trend strength of silver is - 1, indicating a relatively weak negative outlook [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: - For gold, the previous day's closing prices of沪金2510 and黄金T+D decreased by 0.31% and 0.33% respectively, while Comex黄金2510 increased by 0.99% [2] - For silver, the previous day's closing prices of沪银2510 and白银T+D decreased by 1.57% and 1.74% respectively, while Comex白银2510 increased by 1.48% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - For沪金2510, the previous day's trading volume increased by 31,416 compared to the day before, and the open interest increased by 39 [2] - For沪银2510, the previous day's trading volume increased by 242,392 compared to the day before, and the open interest decreased by 23,822 [2] - **ETF and Inventory**: - The SPDR gold ETF持仓 decreased by 4, and the SLV白银ETF持仓 (the day before yesterday) decreased by 34 [2] - The沪金 inventory increased by 249 kilograms, while the Comex黄金 inventory (the day before) decreased by 17,426 ounces; the沪银 inventory decreased by 9,247 kilograms, while the Comex白银 inventory (the day before) increased by 600,232 ounces [2] - **Price Spreads**: - The买沪金12月抛6月跨期套利 cost decreased by 0.87, and the买沪银12月抛6月跨期套利 cost decreased by 11.3 [2] - The黄金T+D对伦敦金的价差 increased by 378.99, and the白银T+D对伦敦银的价差 increased by 4,670 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - The dollar index decreased by 0.04%, and the dollar - to - CNY (CNY spot) decreased by 0.06% [2] 3.2. Macro and Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most people think inflation is a higher risk than employment, and there are concerns about the fragility of the US Treasury market and the impact of stablecoins [4] - Trump pressured the Fed, asking Lisa Cook to resign, but Cook refused to be coerced [7] - Fed Chair favorite Waller said there's nothing to fear about cryptocurrency technology and the Fed should promote payment innovation with the industry [7] - Li Qiang emphasized promoting the improvement and upgrading of the biopharmaceutical industry [7] - China's August LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [7] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will study a 24 - hour trading mechanism [5]