特朗普在1月12日的社交媒体发帖中警告，如果最高法院对关税法做出不利裁决，美国财政将面临无法承受的巨大退款压力。这一言论直接指向了国际紧急 经济权力法，这是他全球关税政策的法律基础。虽然原定于1月9日作出裁决，但结果被推迟，这让市场反应剧烈，导致道琼斯指数一度下跌超过2%。白宫 内部也承认，如果最终裁决不利，潜在的赔偿金额，包括企业避税损失，可能高达万亿美元。特朗普的关税政策自2025年起将对全球贸易伙伴实施，针对中 国的税率一度高达145%，原本意图通过这种方式减少逆差。然而，多国的反击使得美国企业的利益受损。法院正审查特朗普是否滥用了总统的紧急权力， 大法官们在去年11月的庭审中一致对这种长期适用性表示质疑。与此同时，欧盟也出台了新规定，允许中国电动车企业通过承诺最低价来避免高关税，这使 得中欧贸易重新回到了规则的轨道上，形成了与美国单边行动的鲜明对比。 国内方面，共和党内部分议员公开反对特朗普的政策，参议院通过了一项法案，限制总统对委内瑞拉的军事干预，党内五票的支持无疑是对特朗普的反叛信 号。特朗普对法院不利判决的威胁引发了法学界的激烈讨论，是否这已经超越了对法治的挑战。司法部对鲍威尔展开刑事调查，指责 ...

新华社北京1月15日电 14日，围绕格陵兰岛，美国与丹麦举行高层会晤却未能弥合核心分歧。与此同 时，丹麦宣布加强在格陵兰岛的军事存在，瑞典、德国、法国等多国也向格陵兰岛派遣军事力量或参与 联合军事行动，格陵兰岛周边地缘政治局势持续升温。 美丹存"根本性分歧" 丹麦外交大臣拉斯穆森与格陵兰岛自治政府外交部长莫茨费尔特14日在华盛顿白宫同美国副总统万斯和 国务卿鲁比奥举行会晤。拉斯穆森在会晤后的联合记者会上强调，任何不尊重丹麦领土完整和格陵兰人 民自决权的观点"完全不可接受"，双方仍存在"根本性分歧"，但同意继续对话并组建高级别工作组。 拉斯穆森表示，双方进行了"坦诚而富有建设性"的讨论，丹麦认为现有框架——即1951年美丹签署的格 陵兰岛防务协议及北约条约，已足以保障格陵兰岛安全，美国"收购"格陵兰岛"绝对没有必要"。 他表示，即将组建的高级别工作组重点探讨如何化解美国的国家安全关切，同时尊重丹麦底线，预计几 周内将举行首次会议。 莫茨费尔特则表示，加强与美国的合作至关重要，但这并不意味着"我们想被美国控制"，而是"作为盟 友应如何加强合作，这符合所有人的利益"。 声明指出，这是丹麦加强在北极和北大西洋地区存在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the geopolitical landscape is shifting due to renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which could impact oil trade dynamics and increase demand for compliant oil transportation [1][2][3] - In the short term, if internal unrest in Iran escalates, oil trade demand may shift towards compliant supplies in the Middle East, equivalent to a demand for 38 VLCCs [1][3] - If the U.S. or Israel attacks Iran, the geopolitical risk premium for oil transportation may rise, further affecting the oil market [1][3] Group 2 - Venezuela's oil exports are currently constrained by U.S. military actions, which may push the oil trade towards compliance, representing a demand for 19 VLCCs in the short term [2] - If U.S. sanctions on Venezuela are lifted, the oil shipping demand could increase to 46 VLCCs, and with continued investment in infrastructure, exports could reach historical peaks of 240,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 141 VLCCs [2] - The shadow fleet established by Russia has allowed it to maintain oil exports despite sanctions, with potential impacts on 150,000 barrels per day of Russian oil exports if sanctions are intensified [4] Group 3 - The report suggests that companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (601872.SH), COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026.SH), and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (601975.SH) should be monitored for potential investment opportunities [5]

中新社北京1月15日电综合消息：丹麦国防部当地时间14日证实，即日起，丹麦将在格陵兰岛及其周边 地区扩大军事存在。同日，德国、法国、瑞典等欧洲国家宣布，将向格陵兰岛派遣军事人员。 另据路透社消息，瑞典和挪威14日早些时候也宣布将向格陵兰岛派遣军事人员。 瑞典首相克里斯特松当日在社交媒体表示，一些瑞典军官将于14日抵达格陵兰岛。他们作为多个盟国所 组建小组的一部分，将为丹麦计划实施的"北极耐力"行动做准备。 挪威国防大臣桑维克告诉挪威《晚邮报》，该国已派遣2名军事人员前往格陵兰岛，目的是制定盟友之 间进一步合作的计划。桑维克表示，北约目前正在就如何加强北极地区安全，包括格陵兰岛及其周边地 区的安全进行对话。 据丹麦国防部网站发布的声明，鉴于地缘政治紧张局势已蔓延至北极地区，格陵兰岛自治政府和丹麦国 防部决定继续加强丹麦武装部队在格陵兰岛的演训活动。 声明称，作为加强在北极和北大西洋地区存在的一部分，丹麦武装部队从14日起部署演训相关部队。这 将导致在未来一段时间，格陵兰岛及其周边地区的军事存在增加，其中包括飞机、舰艇和士兵，也包括 来自北约盟友的部队。 声明还称，2026年的演训活动可能包括警戒关键基础设施、为 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices rebounded and reached a new historical high, indicating a bullish outlook for the market, with support levels at the 5-day or 10-day moving averages for buying on dips [1]. Price Movement - Gold opened slightly higher at $4588.21 per ounce, marking the day's low, and subsequently strengthened, facing resistance around $4640. The price fluctuated during the U.S. trading session, peaking at $4642.63 before closing at $4626.26, up $39.83 or 0.87% from the previous close of $4586.43, with a daily range of $56.2 [3]. Influencing Factors - The rise in gold prices was driven by geopolitical tensions and criticism of the Federal Reserve by the Trump administration. However, strong U.S. retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data limited further gains for gold, causing it to encounter resistance [3]. Outlook - On January 15, gold prices initially declined due to technical adjustments, despite the previous day's strong retail sales and PPI data. Political uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to provide support for gold. Traders maintain expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, suggesting that bullish factors remain, and any temporary pullbacks could present further buying opportunities [3].

今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于1030附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂1033.90元/克，跌 幅0.11%，最高触及1042.94元/克，最低下探1029.40元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 格陵兰当地焦虑加剧，手工艺人Jensen称"努力不恐慌";格陵兰总理尼尔森表示，当前应与丹麦团 结，"不是拿自决权赌博"，强调"未来或追求独立，但此刻与王国站在一起"。莫兹费尔特也声明"格陵 兰是丹麦王国的一部分"。 民调显示，仅17%美国人支持特朗普获取格陵兰的努力，超八成民众(含两党多数)反对武力吞并，47% 不赞成，35%不确定。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金期货(AU2606)近期延续强势上涨趋势，2026年1月12日主力合约价格突破1024.78元/克，创历史新 高，受地缘政治紧张及美联储降息预期双重驱动。技术面显示，价格站稳1000元/克关键支撑，短期阻 力位聚焦1030–1040元/克区间，日线均线呈多头排列，量能持续放大，确认趋势动能强劲。RSI与 MACD虽未公布具体数值，但价格持续新高且未现背离，表明多头主导格局未改。当前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply after reaching historical highs earlier in the year [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 15, 2026, gold prices fell below $4600, while silver dropped below $90 per ounce, with silver experiencing a decline of over 6% [1]. - Earlier in the month, gold had reached a record price of over $4640, and silver had briefly surpassed $93 per ounce, marking their strongest annual performance since 1979, with gold up approximately 65% and silver nearly 150% year-over-year [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has fallen below 50 for the first time since March 2012, indicating that silver may no longer be considered cheap relative to gold [4]. - The recent surge in metal prices is attributed to concentrated buying in the Chinese market and rising geopolitical risks, which have heightened market demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Short-term price movements in precious metals are influenced by geopolitical disturbances and political changes, with a high risk premium present [5]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive due to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. midterm elections [5]. - The current global trade and financial environment, characterized by "de-globalization" and "de-dollarization," is seen as beneficial for gold's investment and hedging value [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant performance of gold and silver in 2025, with gold prices increasing by over 65% and silver prices rising by 150%. Investment banks are optimistic about gold potentially challenging $5,000 per ounce and silver reaching $100 per ounce in 2026, driven by four key themes in the precious metals market [1]. Group 1: Key Themes - **Theme 1: Trump Market** Trump's statements and policies directly impact the dollar's performance. If he reignites trade disputes that could harm the U.S. economy and weaken the dollar, it would create a favorable environment for gold and silver investments. The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship in May 2026, appointed by Trump, could also lead to significant interest rate cuts, benefiting precious metal prices [2]. - **Theme 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts** The expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is closely tied to inflation and employment data. If these indicators suggest economic weakness, the likelihood of rate cuts increases, prompting a shift of funds into gold and silver markets for risk aversion [3]. - **Theme 3: De-dollarization and Central Bank Gold Purchases** The ongoing global trend of de-dollarization, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the U.S. debt exceeding $36 trillion, is leading central banks and financial institutions to increase their gold and silver holdings. Market concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline and potential dollar crises often precede price surges in precious metals. Additionally, the Chinese New Year is a peak time for gold purchases, warranting close attention [4]. - **Theme 4: Geopolitical Risks and Industrial Demand for Silver** Geopolitical risks significantly drive gold and silver prices, especially events involving U.S. intervention that raise concerns about fiscal deficits. Silver's industrial applications in technology sectors, such as chips and electric vehicles, also enhance its demand. Changes in China's rare earth policies could further influence silver prices in 2026 [5]. Group 2: Price Projections - The article suggests that if the aforementioned themes persist, the long-term projections for gold could reach $10,000 per ounce and for silver $300 per ounce, indicating a strong potential for price appreciation in the precious metals market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of gold prices and the economic indicators from the United States, highlighting the resilience of consumer spending and the potential impact of geopolitical tensions on gold prices [2][5]. Economic Indicators - COMEX gold prices closed at $4633.9 per ounce, with a gain of 0.76%, while SHFE gold prices closed at 1039.72 yuan per gram, up 0.46% [2][5]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales for November, surpassing the expected 0.5% [2][5]. - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) indicated that December's existing home sales totaled an annualized 4.35 million units, the highest level since February 2023, exceeding expectations of 4.22 million and the previous value of 4.13 million [2][5]. - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book noted improvements in the overall economy across most regions, with stable employment levels and moderate price increases [2][5]. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the future path of interest rate cuts, but a majority supports not lowering rates in January [2][5]. - The slight recovery of the U.S. dollar index suggests that expectations for rate cuts may not provide substantial upward momentum for gold prices [2][5]. Geopolitical Factors - Multiple governments have advised their citizens to evacuate Iran, with former President Trump indicating a wait-and-see approach regarding the situation [2][5]. - The escalating tensions in Iran may keep gold prices strong in the short term, especially in the context of the Federal Reserve's potential pause on interest rate cuts [2][5].

2026.01.15 本文字数：2139，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 此前，英伟达凭借人工智能概念股热潮，一直在全球金融市场占据领先地位。但长期被视为传统避险资 产的白银，依托贵金属属性与工业实用价值的双重加持，上演了一场出人意料的逆袭。 从历史上看，黄金一直是这两种贵金属中价值更高的品种，在金融与贸易领域常被奉为 "金本位"的标 杆。然而，随着市场趋势与工业需求的转变，白银的价值正在被挖掘。 据企业市值数据平台companiesmarketcap 显示，持续创下历史新高的白银，在周三市值突破5万亿美 元，超过英伟达成功跻身全球价值第二高的资产，仅次于黄金。 首先通胀会侵蚀纸币储蓄的价值，促使更多人投向白银等有形资产。而地缘政治不确定性以及最新升级 的美联储独立性担忧的局面，可能会为白银价格进一步冲高创造必要条件。 全球央行与政府政策对贵金属的价值有着显著影响。历史上，央行一直将黄金作为储备资产，但如今部 分投资者和政府对白银的兴趣正日益浓厚。若央行采取行动丰富储备资产组合，也可能增加对白银的需 求，从而影响其市场价格。 推动白银这一轮涨势的并非只有避险资产需求。供需平衡是一个不可忽视的因素 ...