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黄金投资全解析:核心问答与市场前瞻
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 11:26
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding gold investment through various dimensions, including market dynamics and investment strategies, as a crucial channel for seizing opportunities in the gold market [1] Group 1: Fundamental Understanding - Gold possesses three core financial attributes: commodity, currency, and safe-haven characteristics, influenced by jewelry consumption and industrial demand [2] - The core advantages of gold as an investment include its inflation resistance, asset hedging capabilities, and long-term value support, with central banks projected to purchase over 1200 tons of gold by 2025 [3] Group 2: Current Market Status - As of early 2026, gold prices experienced significant volatility, peaking at $5598 per ounce before retreating to $4882.45 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 2.56% [4] - Demand for gold is robust, with central banks, particularly China's, increasing their reserves, while private investors in China significantly boosted their gold ETF holdings [5] Group 3: Price Drivers - The Federal Reserve's policies impact gold prices through interest rates and the dollar, with high rates increasing holding costs and suppressing demand [6] - Geopolitical tensions, such as U.S.-Iran military threats, have historically driven gold prices up, but market corrections often follow once tensions ease [8] - The relationship between the dollar and gold is typically negative, with a stronger dollar reducing gold's appeal, although long-term trends suggest a weakening dollar may support gold prices [9] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Mainstream gold investment options include physical gold, paper gold, gold ETFs, and gold futures, each with distinct characteristics and risks [10] - Current investment strategies recommend a "long-term hold and buy on dips" approach, with specific price points identified as support levels for strategic positioning [11] Group 5: Institutional Outlook - Institutions generally agree that the fundamental drivers for a long-term bull market in gold remain intact, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased central bank purchases [12] - There are differing views on short-term price movements, with some predicting a rebound while others caution against potential delays in rate cuts due to persistent inflation [12]
沪铜产业日报-20260205
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 10:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates weakly, with a decrease in positions and a premium in the spot market, and the basis strengthens. The raw material cost support logic remains strong due to the tight supply of copper concentrate and geopolitical impacts. The domestic copper production may slightly decline due to raw material supply constraints and the approaching holiday. The downstream may have some demand for bargain - hunting inventory replenishment after the significant copper price correction, but the actual transaction is still cautious due to the off - season and the upstream's price - holding sentiment. The domestic copper inventory shows seasonal accumulation. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper are in a stage of slightly converging supply and cautious demand. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 100,980.00 yuan/ton, down 4,180.00 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,999.50 US dollars/ton, down 45.00 US dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 182,336.00 lots, down 10,572.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 58,962.00 lots, down 7,780.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 176,125.00 tons, up 1,450.00 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 233,004.00 tons, up 7,067.00 tons; the LME copper canceled warrants are 37,075.00 tons, down 800.00 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 159,772.00 tons, down 2,856.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,140.00 yuan/ton, down 3,265.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,145.00 yuan/ton, down 3,750.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 36.50 US dollars/ton, up 1.50 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 160.00 yuan/ton, up 915.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - three - month spread is - 81.84 US dollars/ton, down 12.44 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons per month, up 17.80 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 95,230.00 yuan/metal ton, up 3,640.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 95,930.00 yuan/metal ton, up 3,640.00 yuan. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 49.84 US dollars/thousand tons, down 0.05 US dollars. The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 2,200.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan; in the north, it is 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000.00 tons, up 10,000.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,490.00 yuan/ton, up 1,300.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 84,850.00 yuan/ton, up 2,750.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan per month, up 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8,278.814 billion yuan per month, up 419.724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, up 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 45.07%, up 1.80%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 36.56%, up 1.21%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 32.46%, down 0.0310; the at - the - money option call - to - put ratio is 1.49, up 0.0049 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The central bank held the 2026 credit market work conference, focusing on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. The US January "small non - farm" ADP employment number was lower than expected. The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8 but was better than expected. Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue. The preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association showed that the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January were 900,000, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Tesla China's wholesale sales were 69,129, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said to support the housing needs of young people and increase the area of affordable housing [2].
【UNforex财经事件】美元走强与数据分化交织 金价反弹但趋势仍待确认
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 09:47
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing volatility due to a combination of a strengthening dollar, weak employment data, and ongoing uncertainty in monetary policy [1][2][3] - Gold briefly fell below the $4800 mark but rebounded to above $4900, reflecting a short-term emotional recovery rather than a trend reversal [1] - The ADP private sector employment data for January showed only 22,000 new jobs, which was significantly below market expectations, indicating a cooling labor market and providing support for gold prices [1] - The ISM services PMI remained at 53.8, indicating resilience in the services sector, which supports the dollar and limits gold's upward momentum [1] - The market is currently characterized by high volatility in precious metals, particularly silver, which experienced a significant sell-off with a maximum drop of 17% [2] - The recent fluctuations in precious metal prices are attributed to high leverage and concentrated adjustments in ETF holdings rather than fundamental changes [2] - Geopolitical factors, particularly the upcoming talks between the US and Iran, are influencing market sentiment but are not expected to drive gold prices significantly higher [3] Group 2 - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, which may enhance the relative attractiveness of the dollar [2] - The market is in a re-pricing phase for gold, influenced by multiple factors including the dollar's performance and upcoming employment data releases [3] - The precious metals market is likely to continue exhibiting a mix of differentiation and volatility until clearer monetary policy signals emerge [3]
石油板块迎回调,石油ETF(561360)收跌超2%,地缘冲突催化,回调或可布局
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-02-05 08:09
风险提示:提及个股仅用于行业事件分析,不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考,不代表其未来表现,亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整,不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同,敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件,充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则,选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品,谨慎投资。 申银万国报告指出,春节前后油价将呈现 "地缘主导、基本面托底" 的特征。这意味着,短期内的地缘 政治新闻,都可能引发油价的剧烈波动。市场交易的核心并非当下的原油库存或需求数据,而是对未来 潜在供应中断概率的定价。 石油ETF(561360)跟踪的是油气产业指数(H30198),该指数聚焦于石油和天然气勘探、开采、加工 及销售等相关业务,其成分覆盖产业链上下游企业,以反映油气行业上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数 具备显著的周期性特征,其走势受国际油价波动影响较大。 2月5日,石油板块迎回调,石油ETF(561360)收跌超2%,地缘冲突催化,回调或可布局。 当前油价已高度蕴含冲突预期,走势主要由地缘消息牵引,随地缘风险升温,油价也有望震荡上行。 ...
供应缩量叠加地缘博弈,原油价格震荡走高,油气ETF博时(561760)最新规模创成立以来新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 05:25
Group 1 - The China Securities Oil and Gas Resource Index (931248) decreased by 2.88% as of February 5, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Intercontinental Oil & Gas led the gains with an increase of 3.87%, while Jereh Group saw the largest decline at 9.27% [1] - The oil and gas ETF, Bosera (561760), fell by 3.01% to a latest price of 1.29 yuan, but has seen a cumulative increase of 9.29% over the past two weeks [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical factors are driving volatility in the S&P oil and gas sector, compounded by supply and demand disruptions [2] - As of February 4, 2026, WTI crude oil futures rose by 3.05% to $65.14 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 3.16% to $69.46 per barrel [2] - Global oil supply is projected to exceed demand in 2026, with supply at 106.3 million barrels per day and demand at 104.3 million barrels per day [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a significant drop in U.S. oil inventories, with a decrease of 3.455 million barrels last week, the largest decline for the same period since 2016 [2] - As of January 23, 2026, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 42,375 million barrels, an increase of 4.7 million barrels since the beginning of the month [3] Group 4 - The Bosera oil and gas ETF reached a new high in scale at 231 million yuan [4] - Over the past five trading days, there were three days of net inflows totaling 123 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 24.59 million yuan [4] - The index tracks companies involved in the oil and gas sector, including exploration, services, equipment manufacturing, refining, and sales [4]
光大期货能化商品日报(2026年2月5日)-20260205
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 04:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, and gives an "oscillating" view for each product [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $1.93 to $65.14/barrel (3.05% increase), Brent April contract rose $2.13 to $69.46/barrel (3.16% increase), and SC2603 rose 15.2 yuan to 473.5 yuan/barrel (3.32% increase). The US - Iran negotiation is facing twists and turns. EIA reported that US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased last week. Cold - snap - induced output decline supports oil prices, but geopolitical variables cause fluctuations. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2603) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) rebounded. The supply of both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, while the bunker fuel加注 activity is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. Affected by geopolitics and crude oil costs, the fundamentals are mixed with long and short factors, and there is pressure in the follow - up. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract (BU2603) rebounded. This week, the social inventory rate increased, the refinery inventory level decreased, and the plant operating rate decreased. In the early and middle of February, the inventory in the north is for downstream stocking, and the inventory in the south has some arbitrage demand. During the Spring Festival, the refinery and social inventories will increase. The asphalt is less volatile than crude oil, and the cracking spread has been repaired. The basis has weakened. Refineries are looking for alternative raw materials, and the production schedule may be adjusted later. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and raw material imports [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA605, EG2605, and PX 603 all rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are slightly differentiated and generally weak. Multiple MEG devices have restart, maintenance, and shutdown plans. With the decline of crude oil prices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Polyester raw material prices are expected to oscillate with costs. Attention should be paid to unexpected device changes, cost - end price fluctuations, and the risk of insufficient demand recovery in late February [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts (RU2605, NR, BR) all rose. As of February 1, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. The natural rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire in January decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The rubber fundamentals show increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of external macro - factors [5]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot prices in different regions and the prices of downstream products are given. The domestic methanol production is expected to decrease slightly in February, and the import volume will decline. The demand from eastern MTO devices will decrease. The decline in Iranian shipments will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load may put pressure on inventory reduction. The methanol price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [5]. - **Polyolefin**: On Wednesday, the prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. The supply is expected to increase slightly. In February, downstream enterprises will enter the holiday, leading to passive inventory increase. After the Spring Festival, the market will start to digest inventory. The fundamentals are not strongly supported in February, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of refineries and society. The polyolefin price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China adjusted strongly. In February, the enterprise maintenance is less, and the production will remain high. The real - estate construction is weakening, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The "rush - to - export" demand is generated due to the cancellation of export tax - rebate on April 1. There is an expectation of supply reduction in the future, and the PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, basis change, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending January 30, US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased due to winter storms. Crude oil production dropped to the lowest level since November 2024, and the crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 743,000 barrels [11]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister clarified the official position on the Iran - US talks in Oman, stating that the talks will be held at around 10 a.m. on the 6th in Muscat. Earlier, an Iranian official source said the talks were cancelled due to new US conditions and differences in the negotiation issues [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle - chip [13][15][17][19][21][23][25][27][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [30][33][37][38][40][41]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European - line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [43][45][48][51][53][55][57]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil (internal and external markets, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [59][62][64]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash - flow [66][68]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple "Outstanding Analyst" awards and led the energy research team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research and has served many listed companies [71]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in Applied Economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple industry analyst awards and her team has won industry service awards. She is deeply involved in domestic and foreign energy industry research [72]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple analyst awards and her team has won a research team award. She is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [73]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with an engineering master's degree. He has passed the CFA Level III exam and has experience combining financial theory with industrial operations [74].
液化石油气日报:地缘扰动仍存,市场多空因素交织-20260205
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 03:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, focus on the development of the Iran situation; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The energy sector has been significantly affected by the Iran situation. The news of the planned negotiation between Iran and the US led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but the situation has since become more complex, increasing market concerns and causing a rebound in the geopolitical premium of crude oil. The agreement between the US and India will reduce the consumption capacity of Russian oil and support international oil prices. The rise in crude oil prices has led to an increase in downstream energy and chemical products including LPG. The Iran situation remains uncertain, and the upcoming negotiation between the US and Iran on February 6 may cause market fluctuations [1] - From the perspective of LPG's fundamentals, there are both bullish and bearish factors. Overseas supply has tightened marginally, and Saudi Arabia has raised its February CP. However, high raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in a negative feedback on demand. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas has also put additional pressure on the PG market. The game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disrupted the market, especially for the PG2603 contract. If the impact of the macro and geopolitical factors weakens, the market may enter a range - bound state again. In the medium term, the LPG balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply situation, and the supply side has relatively high elasticity [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Analysis - On February 4, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3790 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market, 4200 - 4520 yuan/ton; East China market, 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4840 - 5130 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton; South China market, 4798 - 4890 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 620 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 610 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4746 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4669 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 612 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 602 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4685 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4608 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation. Inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not provided [3]
国内油价连续上涨,春节出行成本增加
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 03:25
来源:华夏时报 国内成品油价格开启2026年第二轮上涨。 2月3日下午,国家发改委发布公告称,近期国际市场油价波动上升,根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价 格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况,按照现行成品油价格机制,自2月3日24时起,国内汽、 柴油价格每吨分别上涨205元和195元。 对于下一轮国内成品油调价预期,金联创成品油分析师王延婷告诉《华夏时报》记者,新一轮计价周期 首个工作日,变化率幅度将在-0.4%,对应汽柴油下调幅度在20元/吨附近。若后期地缘局势趋于缓和, 国际原油价格存下行空间,新一轮零售价下调概率较大。 成品油二连涨 新一轮油价调整窗口,国内成品油价格迎来二连涨。 隆众资讯成品油分析师徐雯雯告诉记者,本轮调价后,全国大多数地区车柴价格6.6—6.8元/升,92号汽 油零售限价在6.9—7.0元/升。 地缘冲突扰动 近期两周左右时间,原油价格持续走高,以美原油为例,最低处于55美元/桶,最高涨到66美元/桶,上 涨幅度超过10美元/桶;布伦特原油期货价格更是自2025年9月份以来首次突破70美元/桶。 国际原油价格上涨的主要原因之一,便是美国对伊朗部署军队和航母等,加大了地区的紧张 ...
沪指重返4100点,美国1月“小非农”不及预期
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 03:15
FICC日报 | 2026-02-05 沪指重返4100点,美国1月"小非农"不及预期 市场分析 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开:会议强调,深入实施提振消费专项行动;强调深入整治"内 卷式"竞争制定和实施;会议确认,把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。1月15日,央 行宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点,各类再贷款一年期利率降至1.25%,其他期限档次利率同 步调整。1月20日,财政部官网集中发布5个重要政策文件,涵盖个人消费贷款、设备更新、中小微企业贷款、服 务业经营主体贷款及民间投资专项担保五大领域,以 "延长期限、扩大范围、提高标准" 为核心导向,国内政策推 升通胀的趋势明确。此外,全球的地缘局势仍紧张,在民粹主义和贸易保护主义思潮下,全球争夺矿产和能源资 源的局势明朗。特朗普称就格陵兰岛的谈判即将达成一致。从宏观趋势的角度,仅有经济衰退和加息预期才能为 火热的通胀情绪带来降温。基本面上,受新订单和产出的增长推动,美国制造业活动在1月份意外扩张,增速创下 自2022年以来最快水平。美国1月ADP就业人数增长 2.2万人,低于预期4.5万人。当地时 ...
专家谈中东多国紧急斡旋美伊谈判:想发挥更大的地缘政治作用
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2026-02-05 02:46
复旦大学中东研究中心研究员邹志强向南都记者分析,此次,阿曼、土耳其、沙特、埃及等国家一直在 积极为美伊谈判斡旋,并发挥了比较重要的作用。在美伊双方长期缺乏互信的情况下,这些第三方国家 的斡旋起到了十分重要的沟通桥梁作用,让美伊双方能够接触、表达观点,并且能够提供双方都可能接 受的谈判场所。 邹志强表示,这些国家之所以积极推动,一方面是不希望局势走向战争,他们不愿意看到地区形势陷入 紧张和冲突。另一方面,他们也希望借此发挥更大的地缘政治作用,展现自身的大国形象,并提升在与 美国等各方关系中的重要性。 美国稍早前曾拒绝伊朗将原定会议地点由土耳其伊斯坦布尔改到阿曼的提议。此后,多位中东领导人紧 急游说特朗普政府放弃退出谈判的威胁,强烈敦促美国不要取消会议。 南都记者了解到,阿曼此前曾经在多个地区冲突中扮演调停人的角色。2025年,在阿曼斡旋下,伊朗和 美国举行多轮间接谈判。但核心分歧难解,美国要求伊朗完全放弃铀浓缩,伊朗强调其和平利用核能的 权利不可剥夺。同年6月,以色列突袭伊朗引发双方"12日战争",在此期间,美国轰炸伊朗关键核设 施。伊美谈判自此中断。 当地时间2月4日,伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐发文称,伊朗与美国就 ...