Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Tin prices recently broke through the historical high of 395,000 yuan/ton in 2022, reaching above 400,000 yuan/ton and hitting the daily limit with an 8% increase today [2] - The recent rise in tin prices is due to tight supply, low inventory, and smooth price transmission to downstream [2] - Tin prices are expected to continue rising, with the next target around 450,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Strategy Suggestions - In the case of lack of liquidity in the futures market's daily limit, consider buying call options to hedge risks, while controlling the purchase cost of strike price + premium [3] - For customers with long positions planning to gradually reduce positions, consider arranging some short - term and wide - range Phoenix accumulator put options to reduce positions when the price surges and increase income during fluctuations [4]

纯碱玻璃周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 第一章 核心逻辑分析 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 10 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1.1 纯碱供应——二期出产品，产量上移 GALAXY FUTURES 2 单位：万吨 纯碱产量 纯碱联碱法开工率 单位：% 纯碱氨碱法开工率 单位：% 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 第53 周 第50 周 第47 周 第44 周 第41 周 第38 周 第35 周 第32 周 第29 周 第26 周 第23 周 第20 周 第17 周 第14 周 第11 周 第8周 第5周 第2周 2026年度 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 2021年度 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 50.00% 55 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Maersk lowered the WEEK5 quotation, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The final trading day of the EC2602 contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures is February 9, 2026, and its delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - period delivery settlement prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Currently, the valuation of the 02 contract is taking shape, but it will be affected by Maersk's next - week quotation and the price correction of the PA Alliance [7][8]. - The policy of canceling the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic and other products may disrupt the off - season characteristics of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase in the near future. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can rise significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 13, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures was 62,795.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 54,738.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1720.40, 1199.70, 1413.50, 1529.90, 1107.40, and 1372.10 respectively [10]. 2. Spot Price - On January 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1719 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2218 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 3128 dollars/FEU. On January 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1323.98 points [10]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. From 2026 - 2029, there are clear delivery plans for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [4]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK3/4/5 were 318,100/361,000/306,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February was 277,300 TEU, and there were 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings. The average weekly capacity in March was 281,600 TEU, and there were 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk will gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [4]. 5. Demand and European Economy - In October 2025, China's photovoltaic module exports to the European market were about 7.55 GW, a decrease of about 31% compared with September and an increase of 8% compared with the same month in 2024. From January to October, the cumulative exports to the European market were about 91 GW, an increase of 8% compared with the previous year. After excluding the Netherlands, France ranked second in terms of single - month imports of photovoltaic modules from China [6].

农产品日报 | 2026-01-14 猪价窄幅波动，观察压力变化 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 全国大部地区猪价维持上涨态势，其中南方相对北方偏强，全国高价区主要集中在华东局地，价格高点接近14.0。 养殖端整体出栏积极性仍然一般，中旬的出栏节奏逐渐稳步提升，下旬或面临一定出栏压力。屠宰端反馈白条的 走货有所放缓，需求端跟进稍显不足，对高价猪源接受度转弱。从距离春节时间上看预计二次育肥大量再入场的 概率低。关注下旬供需双增背景下猪价的变动趋势。 策略 中性 风险 疫病情况 鸡蛋观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘鸡蛋 2603合约2990元/500 千克，较前交易日变动-30.00元，幅度-0.99%。现货方面，辽宁地 区鸡蛋现货价格3.27元/斤，较前交易日变动+0.09，现货基差 JD03+280，较前交易日变动+120；山东地区鸡蛋现 货价格3.60元/斤，较前交易日变动+0.10，现货基差 JD03+610，较前交易日变动+130；河北地区鸡蛋现货价格3.16 元/斤，较前交易日变动+0.05，现货基差 JD03+170，较前交易日变动+80。 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11795元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall consumption is still sluggish, and it is difficult for the lead price to perform well. The lead price may fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton. Operators can conduct buy and sell hedging as needed within this range [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 13, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.63/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -150 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 10,200 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On January 13, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,480 yuan/ton and closed at 17,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 33,329 lots, a decrease of 5,038 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 34,986 lots, a decrease of 5,327 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,495 yuan/ton and a low of 17,270 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,435 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the afternoon of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally weak spot market [2] Inventory - On January 13, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 13, the LME lead inventory was 218,925 tons, a decrease of 1,275 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The downstream of the lead industry may experience a slight increase in production after the New Year's Day. However, some enterprises may consider reducing production or arranging holidays if orders remain sluggish. The supply of lead ore remains tight, and processing fees are still low. Therefore, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton. Operators can conduct buy and sell hedging as needed within this range [4]

市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15975元/吨，较前一日变动-155元/吨；NR主力合约12840元/吨，较前一日变动-170 元/吨；BR主力合约12000元/吨，较前一日变动-70元/吨。 化工日报 | 2026-01-14 原料价格坚挺，橡胶生产利润低迷 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15700元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15050元/吨，较前一 日变动-80元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1910美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1840 美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12100元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11850元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年12月份，我国重卡市场共计销售9.5万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和 新能源），环比2025年11月下降约16%，比上年同期的8.42万辆增长约13%。纵观2025年全年，我国重卡市场实现 了九连涨，从4月份一直涨到12月份，平均增速高达41%。 2025年11月中 ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-14 EG主港延续累库，价格承压 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3815元/吨（较前一交易日变动-65元/吨，幅度-1.68%），EG华东市场现货价 3682元/吨（较前一交易日变动-44元/吨，幅度-1.18%），EG华东现货基差-147元/吨（环比+2元/吨）。上周乙二醇显 性库存大幅堆积且近端到货依旧集中，现货基差走弱为主。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-70美元/吨（环比+1美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-851 元/吨（环比+11元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为80.2万吨（环比+7.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港实际到港总数16.6万吨，副 港到港量6.2万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数14.8万吨，副港到港量1.7万吨，整体略偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷7成以上高位继续提升，1~2月高 供应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大； ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Unilateral range - bound震荡思路, hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive arbitrage rolling operation, or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [6] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Industrial customers hedge at high prices [6] - Coking Coal and Coke: Buy on dips [6] - Iron Ore: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6] Group 2: Core Views - Steel market fluctuates greatly, spot follow - up momentum is weak, price has support at low levels but cannot form a resonance rebound [2] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon fundamentals continue to be under pressure, with high supply and weak demand, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline [2] - Coking coal spot auctions are mostly rising, and the market enters the "expectation" stage in the off - season, with a preference for buying on dips [4] - Iron ore price touches the resistance level and falls back, with neutral - high valuation and clear upward pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [5] Group 3: Summary by Category Steel - On January 13, the closing prices and price changes of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures are as follows: for far - month contracts, the closing price of RB2610 is 3321.00 yuan/ton, down 27.50 yuan; for near - month contracts, the closing price of RB2605 is 3303.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot prices of steel in different regions also have corresponding changes. The follow - up of spot prices is weak, and the de - stocking pressure of five - type steel plates exists [1][2] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Market sentiment is changeable, prices fluctuate greatly, affected by coal - power news. Demand is under pressure due to poor steel prices and low steel mill profits, and supply is high with insufficient production reduction drive from alloy plants [2] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot trading atmosphere of coking coal improves with coke enterprises' replenishment and intermediate - link purchases. Online auctions are mostly rising. In the futures market, there is more resonance and fluctuation in the capital market, with a long - bias. The market is in the off - season, and the subsequent market depends on whether there is enough "expectation" to drive up the price [4] Iron Ore - The iron ore price falls back when it touches the resistance level. The valuation is neutral - high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended not to chase long or short, but to wait and see [5]

现货升水格局延续 铜价高位震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-14 期货行情： 2026-01-13，沪铜主力合约开于 104600元/吨，收于 102290元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.45%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力 合约开于 103,780元/吨，收于 103,540 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.29%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2601合约报价区间为贴水30元至升水150元/吨，均价为升水60元/吨，与昨 日持平。电解铜现货价格区间在101920-103100元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约呈现"V型"走势，开盘自102860元/吨下行 至102100元附近后反弹，盘中触及103700元高点，最终收于103160元/吨。隔月Contango价差在430-200元/吨之间， 当月进口亏损约1680-1930元/吨。市场方面，早间平水铜报价贴水50元至平水，好铜金川大板因货源紧张报升水150 元。金冠、中金等品牌成交于贴水50元至平水，湿法铜贴水50元成交，随后豫光报价上调至贴水20元，祥光、鲁 方以升水50-80元成交。午后价格小幅上行，中条山、豫光等按 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak trading, with steel prices remaining volatile. The iron ore market is mainly under observation, and iron ore prices are fluctuating. The coking coal and coke market has relatively loose supply and demand, and prices are also fluctuating. The thermal coal market shows rising prices at the pithead, while downstream trading remains in a stalemate [1][3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,158 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,303 yuan/ton. Spot steel trading was generally weak, with prices basically stable and small fluctuations in the market. Purchases were mainly for low-cost essential needs, with few speculative and spot-futures transactions [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: For building materials, the fundamentals have slightly weakened. Steel mills are resuming production quickly, while downstream winter storage replenishment is delayed, leading to a rebound in inventory. However, as it is the consumption off-season for steel, the market has a relatively high tolerance for inventory. For plates, the fundamental contradictions are limited, but high inventory always suppresses price elasticity. In the short term, prices depend on cost changes [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect fluctuations, and there are no specific strategies for inter-period, inter-variety, spot-futures, or options [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures prices fluctuated slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports also fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for essential needs. The total iron ore sales at major national ports reached 841,000 tons, a 11.78% increase from the previous day. The cumulative sales of forward spot iron ore were 1.515 million tons (11 transactions), a 156.78% increase from the previous day, with 1.165 million tons sold by mines [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Currently, with high iron ore valuations, global shipments remain at a high level, and the total inventory has been rising continuously. The liquidity of some port supplies has been locked up, and the actual fundamentals of iron ore are better than the statistical data. High ore prices stimulate supply. If the negotiations are finalized later, port supplies may cause a supply shock, and there is great uncertainty in the long - term iron ore market. In the short term, with steel mills resuming production and winter storage replenishment, iron ore prices will maintain a fluctuating trend. Future attention should be paid to the progress of iron ore negotiations and steel mills' replenishment [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect fluctuations, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward. The price of coking coal for furnace use increased, and coking profits were somewhat restored. The supply in the production areas has been steadily increasing, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rapidly recovered, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal around 1,060 - 1,080 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of the coke market is currently relatively balanced, and coke prices are temporarily stable. On the raw material side, coking coal prices have recently increased, and the market has high purchasing enthusiasm with large order volumes. Coking plants' production enthusiasm is average, as is the downstream purchasing enthusiasm. For raw materials, downstream buyers mostly purchase as needed, and coal mines' production enthusiasm is at a normal level. In the short term, the coke market will mainly remain stable, and prices may continue to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to steel mills' production resumption and replenishment. For coking coal, supply and demand are loose, imports have increased, domestic high - quality production capacity has been released, and the inventory at ports and factories is at a high level, with great pressure to reduce inventory. In the short term, it will also mainly fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and downstream replenishment progress [6] - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is to expect fluctuations, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the overall situation is still strong, with good non - power and other terminal demand, and normal downstream replenishment. Most coal mines have good sales, with many coal - hauling trucks, and prices continue to rise. However, some coal mines have poor sales, and prices have been slightly reduced. Currently, coal mines say that transactions are mainly through long - term agreements, and there are few market coal transactions. Later, coal prices may stabilize. At ports, trading remains sluggish. Affected by the inverted upstream shipping prices, port quotes are relatively high, but most downstream buyers are observing, with only sporadic inquiries. There are serious differences in the market. Some believe that there is an expectation of Spring Festival replenishment, and with continuous upstream price increases, the willingness to hold prices is strong under cost support. Some market participants believe that current downstream consumption is lower than expected and that the price increase at the pithead is not sustainable, so they have a strong willingness to sell [7] - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have continued to rise slightly, but downstream demand has not met expectations, and the temperature is relatively high in the coming week, so there are still differences in views. However, the supply elasticity of coal is large, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and replenishment [7] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7]