新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 冶炼厂观望惜售 铅价低位震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-17，LME铅现货升水为-48.16美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16750 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至45.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至16850元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16775元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-150元/吨至16675元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10025元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10275元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-17，沪铅主力合约开于16825元/吨，收于16735元/吨，较前一交易日变化-90元/吨，全天交易日 成交40173手，较前一交易日变化-506手，全天交易日持仓26930手，手较前一交易日变化-2802手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16855元/吨，最低点达到16680元/吨。 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-18 供需矛盾不足，钢价震荡运行 钢材：供需矛盾不足，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3084元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3245元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，价格和昨日基本持稳，成交略弱于昨日，低价出货意愿增加。全国建材成交99463。 供需与逻辑：建材方面：钢谷数据显示建材产量转增，库存持续降库，需求维持稳定。板材方面：板材高库存持 续压制板材价格，需求韧性仍在。短期明年扩内需等政策预期仍在，基本面矛盾不足，价格底部关注环保及季节 性减产情况、需求及产量变化、利润状况、成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需矛盾后置，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘765元；现货方面，报价整体小幅上涨、成 交一般，贸易商报盘积极性一般，钢厂维持按需补库，采购价格多随行就市。 供需与逻辑：供应端海外发运量维持高位，前期高发运陆续到港，港口呈累库趋势，供应相对宽松。需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday, with the spot market having a general negotiation atmosphere and a relatively strong spot basis. The PTA device has been operating stably recently, and some polyester factories' phased replenishment has driven the spot basis to strengthen. The futures market fluctuates following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - **MEG**: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price had a narrow - range adjustment, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The ethylene glycol market was consolidating at a high level, and the spot basis further weakened. Affected by the news that a South China device will restart ahead of schedule, the ethylene glycol market weakened slightly. In the short - term, the ethylene glycol market is expected to be adjusted at a low level. Attention should be paid to the cost side and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 - No information provided in the report. 3.2每日提示 - **PTA**: The spot price range was 4575 - 4635 yuan/ton. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 13. The PTA factory inventory was 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position decreased. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range [5][6]. - **MEG**: The ethylene glycol price had a narrow - range adjustment. The spot basis further weakened, and the low - level spot transaction was around 01 contract discount of 35 yuan/ton. The inventory in East China was 75.8 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position increased. It is expected that the short - term market will be adjusted at a low level [7]. 3.3今日关注 - **PTA**: Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - **MEG**: Attention should be paid to the cost side and device changes [7]. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity showed an increasing trend, and the production and demand also changed accordingly. For example, in December 2025, the production capacity was 9472, and the production was 684 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024 to 2025, the ethylene glycol production, import, and demand also had corresponding changes. For example, in December 2025, the total supply was 252, and the total demand was 247 [12]. - **Price**: The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan increased by 9 dollars/ton to 584.5 dollars/ton; the spot price of p - xylene (PX) in CFR Taiwan, China decreased by 13 dollars/ton to 824 dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA in the domestic market decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 4615 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol in the domestic market increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3630 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The PTA factory inventory, ethylene glycol port inventory, and other inventories showed different trends from 2021 to 2025 [41]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up**: The start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, and polyester in different periods from 2021 to 2025 showed different trends [53][57]. - **Profit**: PTA processing fees, ethylene glycol production profits, and polyester fiber production profits all changed from 2022 to 2025 [13][59].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/18 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: From Jan to Nov, China's general public budget revenue increased by 0.8%Yo ...

来源：金十数据 e field and the line of the mail the 金源期货:宜春采矿权注销消息引发多头情绪高涨,放量突破前高。但需警惕冲 高回落:注销矿权多为到期且非核心产能;基本面上需求走弱,储能排产停滞; 社会库存去化放缓甚至存隐性库存风险。年底资金回流压力下,不建议过度追 高。 | 今日热点资讯 广期所强化穿透式监管,严打违规行为,切实保障市场平稳运行。 监管 ae 印尼镍矿商协会:2026年镍矿石产量目标大幅下调至2.5亿吨(2025年为 3.79亿吨),意在防止镍价进一步下跌。 综合市场分析指出,今日市场情绪高涨,碳酸锂在"注销采矿权"消息刺激 热门品种机构观点 一、铂、钯期货主力合约：铂钯期货今日双双涨停，均创上市以来新高！ 多晶硅分会:12月产量预计仍在12万吨以内,西南枯水期减产限制了复 光伏 产增量。预计2025全年产量133万吨。 ■ 找钢网数据:全国建材周度产量增加2.87万吨,但社库和总库均出现超30 万吨的降幅,表需回升。 | 板块涨跌幅 工业品 新能源 n sa se + 4 4 % | 软商 | 油脂链 | 油脂 | | | --- | --- | --- ...

每经AI快讯，12月17日，玻璃期货夜盘涨幅扩大至3%，纯碱期货涨超2.3%。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月17日，氧化铝期货主力连续合约涨2.20%，报2606元(人民币)/吨。 每经AI快讯，12月17日，氧化铝期货主力连续合约涨2.20%，报2606元(人民币)/吨。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月17日，沪锡期货主力连续合约涨2.52%，报333190元(人民币)/吨。 每经AI快讯，12月17日，沪锡期货主力连续合约涨2.52%，报333190元(人民币)/吨。 ...

| /// > 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月17日 | | 丙烯 | なな☆ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 纯苯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | РХ | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | な☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | なな女 | 尿素 | 女女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | 女女女 | 玻璃 | 女女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View After the disturbance of macro - events gradually fades, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With the shipment stabilizing and rising, weak rigid demand, and inventory accumulation, the overall fundamentals are weak. However, the back structure of the futures contract and the futures discount under the positive basis provide some support for the futures price. Therefore, the recent iron ore price will generally fluctuate within a range with relatively small volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated slightly higher during the day, closing at 768 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.92% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was nearly 230,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 9,000 lots to 489,000 lots, with 8.2 billion yuan of settled funds. The short - term price maintains a slightly stronger range - bound trend [1]. - **Spot Price**: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, rose by 1 to 784 yuan, and Super Special powder rose by 1 to 673 yuan. The main swap contract was at 102.55 (+1.02) US dollars/ton. Spot prices rose slightly [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 817.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 49.2 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 20.5 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contract showed a back structure + positive basis, which may further limit the downside space of futures [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments growing, and Brazil's shipment growth rate being relatively large. The shipments of mines in non - mainstream countries weakened month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the possible end - of - year shipment rush by mines. The arrivals this period increased significantly month - on - month, and the rhythm of ore arrivals still fluctuated greatly [2]. - **Demand**: In the seasonal off - season, both environmental and annual overhauls have been carried out, molten iron production continued to decline sharply, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened month - on - month, the daily consumption and inventory of sinter powder both declined, molten iron production is expected to continue to weaken, and the release of restocking demand is still slow [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, with more arrivals during the week and intensified port congestion. Steel mill inventory decreased instead of increasing month - on - month. With the decline of molten iron production, daily consumption weakened month - on - month, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, and steel mills' willingness to restock was weak. Overall, the fundamentals remain loose [2]. 3.3 Macro - level Analysis - **US**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in its December meeting, and the tone was more dovish than the market - expected "hawkish rate cut". It not only announced a short - term bond purchase plan, but Fed Chairman Powell also sent dovish signals. Although the non - farm payrolls in November rebounded slightly, the unemployment rate reached a four - year high and entered the warning zone, indicating that the US job market continued to cool down [3]. - **China**: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", and continued to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The primary task for next year is to expand domestic demand, focusing on increasing urban and rural residents' income and releasing the potential of service consumption, and promoting the transformation of old and new driving forces through innovation. The economic data in November showed that industrial production still had resilience, but the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales dropped to 1.3%, indicating weak domestic demand and still relying on policy support [3].