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期货收评:集运欧线涨超5%,焦煤涨超3%,中证500、鸡蛋涨超2%;菜籽、菜油跌超2%,棕榈油、燃油跌超1%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 07:51
Group 1 - The overall oilseed market in China is experiencing a situation of ample supply and slow inventory reduction, with high soybean stocks at ports and increasing operating rates at oil mills [1] - The accumulation of soybean meal inventory is notable, while the volume of unfulfilled contracts from downstream has significantly decreased, leading to a cautious purchasing sentiment in the market [1] - Total oil inventory continues to rise, with soybean oil and palm oil being the main contributors to the increase, while canola oil inventory has slightly decreased [1] Group 2 - On October 29, domestic futures saw more increases than decreases, with the European shipping index rising over 5%, coking coal up over 3%, and the CSI 500 and eggs rising over 2% [2] - In contrast, canola and canola oil fell over 2%, while palm oil and fuel oil dropped over 1% [2]
焦炭主力合约日内涨超2.00%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 07:16
Core Viewpoint - The main contracts for coke and coking coal have experienced significant price increases, indicating a bullish trend in the market for these commodities [1] Group 1: Price Movements - The main contract for coke has risen over 2.00%, currently priced at 1805.5 yuan per ton [1] - The main contract for coking coal has increased by more than 3%, currently priced at 1296.5 yuan per ton [1]
新能源及有色金属日报:需求不振,沪镍不锈钢价格回落-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 05:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Demand continues to be weak, and cost support is weakening, so stainless - steel prices are predicted to stay in a bottom - level oscillation trend [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 opened at 122,060 yuan/ton and closed at 120,560 yuan/ton, a - 1.44% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 156,296 (+26,763) lots, and the open interest was 115,046 (+6,057) lots [1]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract showed a pattern of opening low and moving lower, with weak oscillation. Although factors such as progress in China - US economic and trade consultations and rising expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut boosted risk appetite, the differentiation in macro - sentiment led to the contract's failure to continue the upward trend of overseas markets and instead pulled back due to domestic fundamentals [2]. - In the nickel ore market, there are price differences, and prices remain stable. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is about to enter the rainy season, and shipping is winding down; northern mines are mostly starting tender sales. Some downstream iron plants have the intention to replenish stocks but are in a price - pressing mindset due to production pressure. In Indonesia, the October (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the mainstream premium remained at +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Affected by the local rainy season and next - year's production preparations, Indonesian factories have recently been actively purchasing raw materials, and some are still tendering in the Philippines [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 930 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various brands mostly declined. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 31,385 (+1,605) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 251,436 (+198) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - With high inventory and a supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operations for unilateral trading, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 28, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,750 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 97,090 (-61,294) lots, and the open interest was 100,253 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The stainless - steel main contract showed a weak - oscillation trend. The market's insufficient digestion of short - term positive factors, combined with fundamental pressure and weak bullish confidence, along with the decline of Shanghai nickel, led to the stainless - steel contract following the downward trend [3]. - Spot prices also declined with the futures market. Due to continued sluggish trading, spot quotes further decreased. According to SMM, affected by the market downturn, many stainless - steel plants announced production cuts, mainly for 200 - series stainless steel. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (-150) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (-100) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was between 225 and 525 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 926.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - Due to weak demand and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. The recommended strategy for unilateral trading is neutral, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].
新能源及有色金属日报:仓单小幅去化,碳酸锂盘面高位震荡-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 05:24
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The recent futures market has been rebounding due to factors such as inventory reduction, early cancellation of warehouse receipts, slower - than - expected resumption of previously shut - down mines, and strong consumption support. The short - term supply - demand situation is favorable, and the inventory is continuously decreasing, providing some support to the market. However, after the recent continuous rise in the futures market, the futures price is much higher than the spot price. It is expected that the willingness of upstream producers to conduct hedging will increase when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton. The market needs to pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mines resume production, the inventory may shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, causing the market to decline [2]. Summary According to the Directory Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 was 81,600 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 81,640 yuan/ton, a 0.69% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 729,307 lots, and the open interest was 488,803 lots, compared with 483,478 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was - 4,740 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,335 lots, a decrease of 404 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 76,900 - 80,100 yuan/ton, a change of 1,950 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 75,700 - 76,900 yuan/ton, a change of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 955 US dollars/ton, a change of 13 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factories' operating rates are continuously rising, and the demand supports the spot transactions. In terms of supply, new production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to continue to grow. In terms of demand, both the commercial and passenger new - energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy - storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. Strategy - The futures market has been rebounding recently due to factors such as inventory reduction, early cancellation of warehouse receipts, slower - than - expected resumption of previously shut - down mines, and strong consumption support. Currently, the peak consumption season provides some support, and the short - term supply - demand situation is good with continuous inventory reduction, which supports the market. After the recent continuous rise in the futures market, the futures price is much higher than the spot price, and it is expected that the willingness of upstream producers to conduct hedging will increase when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton. The market needs to pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. It is expected that the cell production schedule in November will increase month - on - month, and the cathode material production schedule will remain flat or slightly decrease month - on - month. If consumption weakens and mines resume production, the inventory may shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, causing the market to decline [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices when appropriate [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: No relevant strategy provided. - Cross - commodity: No relevant strategy provided. - Spot - futures: No relevant strategy provided. - Options: No relevant strategy provided.
化工日报:原料价格继续回升,天然橡胶成本支撑强-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 05:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR, as well as BR, are both neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The cost support for natural rubber remains strong, but in the peak - season, the supply is expected to increase. The overall supply - demand in China may show a pattern of both supply and demand booming. If the arrival volume rebounds later, the depletion of domestic social inventory will slow down or even accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR in China are low, and prices are expected to move within a range. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities for the month - spread. For BR, the cost is dragged down by the decline in butadiene prices, but there are still many device overhauls, and the supply - side support is expected to remain. The supply - demand may improve to some extent, and the downward adjustment space is expected to be limited [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,360 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,530 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,805 yuan/ton, a change of - 190 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,880 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,770 US dollars/ton, with no change. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton, with no change [1] Market Information Heavy - truck Market - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, setting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 199,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 111,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheets was 30,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 55,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export of natural rubber to China was 75,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China was 45,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheets to China was 9,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China was 19,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [2] Automobile Production and Sales - In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] Rubber Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 728,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 702,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume was 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] EU Passenger Car Market - In September 2025, the sales volume of the EU passenger car market increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 28, 2025, the RU basis was - 660 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 380 yuan/ton (+0), the import profit of smoked sheets was - 3340 yuan/ton (- 3340.25), the NR basis was 791.00 yuan/ton (+5.00); the price of whole latex was 14,700 yuan/ton (+0), the price of mixed rubber was 14,980 yuan/ton (- 20), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,880 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3580 yuan/ton (- 20) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.06 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai latex was 55.00 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 1.65 Thai baht/kg (+0.30) [5] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.87% (+1.91%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.84% (+1.77%) [6] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 124,020 tons (- 10,980), and the NR futures inventory was 42,640 tons (+2,521) [6] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 28, 2025, the BR basis was - 5 yuan/ton (+190), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,300 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,650 yuan/ton (- 30), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 2040 yuan/ton (- 100) [6] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 71.71% (- 2.12%) [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,520 tons (- 340), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,650 tons (+750) [6]
农产品日报:糖价内强外弱,郑棉反弹受阻-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 05:10
农产品日报 | 2025-10-29 糖价内强外弱,郑棉反弹受阻 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘棉花2601合约13565元/吨,较前一日变动+0元/吨,幅度+0.00%。现货方面,3128B棉新疆到 厂价14651元/吨,较前一日变动-39元/吨,现货基差CF01+1086,较前一日变动-39;3128B棉全国均价14830元/吨, 较前一日变动-3元/吨,现货基差CF01+1265,较前一日变动-3。 近期市场资讯,据外媒消息,在进口棉增量冲击之下,印度国内棉花价格承压。为了保障植棉收入,棉农交售给 政府的意愿或持续偏强。基于此,印度棉花公司(CCI)有望在2025/26年度收购238万吨棉花,创下历史新高。从 近期皮棉价格运行来看,印度多地现货价格稳中略跌。27日北部棉区旁遮普邦棉花成交价在5240-5270卢比/莫恩德 (折约50000-50300卢比/坎地),哈里亚纳邦在5030-5080比/莫恩德(折约48000-48500卢比/坎地);拉贾斯坦邦北部 地区在5190-5240卢比/莫恩德(折约49600-50100卢比/坎地)。中部古吉拉特邦S-6品种(29mm)成交价在525 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:消费端表现一般,多晶硅下游价格承压-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 05:06
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are average, with the spot price remaining stable. The inventory increased significantly in October due to increased production in the Northwest and non - dry season in the Southwest. The market is expected to improve after the Southwest starts to cut production at the end of October. If there are relevant policies, the industrial silicon futures may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure. Although production may decrease in November, downstream production may also weaken. Mid - to long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8960 yuan/ton and closed at 8955 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2511 had a position of 211,670 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,044, down 141 from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices in various regions unchanged [1] - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton, and the domestic market transaction price was in the range of 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, with the price center slightly moving down [1] Strategy - Short - term interval operation is recommended. For contracts during the dry season, long positions can be taken at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated, opening at 54,325 yuan/ton and closing at 54,355 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from the previous day. The position of the main contract reached 114,932 lots, and the trading volume was 208,200 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 258,000 tons, up 1.98% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.47GW, up 6.70% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, down 4.84% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, up 2.65% month - on - month [3] - The price of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, but the price of 210R silicon wafers showed signs of weakness [3][4] Strategy - Short - term interval operation is recommended. The 11th main contract will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12th contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. In the medium - to long - term, long positions can be laid out at low prices [5]
纯苯苯乙烯日报:纯苯苯乙烯基差弱势盘整-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 03:27
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, port inventory declined slightly. Low开工 rates of downstream styrene, CPL, and adipic acid dragged down demand, leading to a weak port basis. The domestic开工 rate of pure benzene decreased at an accelerating pace, and attention should be paid to the impact of European and American sanctions on Russian oil on refinery loads [3]. - For styrene, there were still short - term maintenance plans, and new device launches such as Jihua and Guangxi Petrochemical had an impact. Downstream开工 changed little, but提货 was average, and the finished product inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics remained high, resulting in continuous port inventory pressure [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Figures include pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts of pure benzene. Also, EB's main contract trend & basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts of styrene are presented [8][12][17] 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Figures show naphtha processing fees, the spread between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profits, the spread between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea, the spread between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the spread between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the spread between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the spread between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [23][25][31] 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Figures display pure benzene's East China port inventory,开工 rate, styrene's East China port inventory,开工 rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [42][44][47] 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures present the开工 rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [53][55][58] 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures show the开工 rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [61][64][76] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Short - term, buy the spread of pure benzene processing fees (pure benzene - naphtha) at low levels [4]
新能源及有色金属日报:现货成交相对清淡,铅价上行相对乏力-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 03:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: On hold [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is still relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to significant inventory reduction in China. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous sector, lead prices may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.80/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 30 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,520 yuan/ton, closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 57,175 lots, a decrease of 24,547 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 77,635 lots, a decrease of 6,760 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,540 yuan/ton and a low of 17,340 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,370 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 229,675 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The absolute price strategy is neutral, and the option strategy is to wait and see [3][4]
黑色建材日报:宏观现实博弈,钢价维持震荡-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 03:26
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Suggested [6] Core Views - Steel: There is a game between macro expectations and real supply - demand. Industry's weak reality has limited improvement. Short - term steel prices will maintain a sideways trend. Attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and demand destocking [1]. - Iron Ore: Market sentiment has improved, and prices have risen slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, supply growth expectations are deepening. Future steel contradictions need to be resolved through production cuts, which may lead to weaker iron ore supply - demand and pressure on prices [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coke's second - round price increase has fully landed, and the supply of coking coal is recovering slowly. The supply - demand contradiction of coke has eased, and the supply of coking coal is still tight [4]. - Thermal Coal: The cost of coal transportation has increased, and the coal price in the production area has weakened. Short - term demand support is insufficient, and the supply pattern will remain loose in the long - term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,091 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,305 yuan/ton. Today's spot steel trading was generally weak, and prices made up for yesterday's increase. Building material inventory is being destocked, iron - making water production is gradually decreasing, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production continues to increase. The production - sales contradiction of plates is large, and inventory pressure is obvious [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should take a sideways approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [1]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices continued to rise. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were strong. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 892,000 tons, a 22.19% increase from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.668 million tons (12 transactions), an 87.42% increase from the previous day (with a mine transaction volume of 1.158 million tons). The current steel mill production cuts are limited, and iron - making water production remains high, ensuring a certain level of ore consumption. In the future, steel contradictions need to be resolved through production cuts, which may lead to weaker iron ore supply - demand [2]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should take a sideways - with - a - downward - bias approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The second - round price increase of coke has fully landed, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the production of some local mines is still low. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1,130 - 1,140 yuan/ton [4]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke should take a sideways approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, supply is gradually recovering. The demand from the metallurgical and chemical industries is okay, and long - term contract customers' shipments are stable. Most coal mines have balanced production and sales, and the pit - mouth coal price is rising. At ports, inventory has reached a historical high, inquiry enthusiasm has declined, downstream demand is low, and prices are being pressured, resulting in low trading activity. The import market is running steadily with a downward bias [6]. - Strategy: No strategy is suggested due to the severe lack of futures liquidity [6].