Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is to maintain a tactical asset allocation strategy, recommending an overweight position in A/H shares and industrial metals, a market weight in government bonds, and an underweight position in the US dollar [1][2]. Group 2 - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, with a tactical overweight view on A/H shares. The significant pressure on global risk appetite has led to increased asset volatility and panic selling, releasing micro trading risks. As the importance of economic growth at the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan increases and the policy window approaches, the market is expected to establish new expectations. The regulatory authorities show strong determination and action plans to stabilize the capital market. Factors that previously caused valuation discounts in the stock market have dissipated, and with tail risks decreasing and the stabilization of RMB assets, the Chinese capital market is in a cycle of valuation recovery and significant development, with considerable upside potential remaining [1]. - The demand for financing and the supply of credit remain unbalanced, leading to a tactical market weight view on government bonds. In the context of a correction in overseas monetary policy expectations, the central bank of China may take action to ensure ample liquidity in the interbank market. Although the bond market has seen significant adjustments, the unbalanced financing demand and credit supply remain an objective reality. Marginal improvements in liquidity may help stabilize bond market sentiment. Government bonds have a moderate risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [1]. Group 3 - The demand forecast has been revised upward, and trading momentum remains high, leading to a tactical overweight view on industrial commodities. Industrial metals, represented by copper, may be in a phase of supply-demand imbalance. Key demand drivers include construction, power grids, and electric vehicles, with structural demand also arising from AI computing expansion and grid modernization. The development costs and complexities of copper have significantly increased, reducing investment willingness, which may temporarily push up copper prices. Industrial commodities have a higher risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [2]. - The correction in US monetary policy and economic convergence have put pressure on the US dollar, leading to a tactical underweight view on the dollar. The Federal Reserve's adjustment of monetary policy guidance and the marginal convergence of the US economy have reduced the allocation value of the dollar compared to other currencies. However, the phase of de-dollarization trading has slowed down, and a weak dollar is not necessarily on a continuous downward trend. The dollar has a lower risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has experienced a pullback against the US dollar (USD) after six consecutive days of gains, influenced by various economic data and changes in monetary policy expectations [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - China's November Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is reported at 49.9, below the previous value of 50.6 and market expectations of 50.5, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [3]. - The weaker PMI data from China, a key trading partner for Australia, is expected to exert pressure on the AUD due to concerns over potential impacts on Australian exports to China [3][5]. Group 2: Domestic Inflation and Monetary Policy - Recent inflation data from Australia has exceeded market expectations, reducing the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) implementing interest rate cuts in the near term [3]. - The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 3.60% and has not discussed the option of rate cuts at this stage, which may provide some support for the AUD and limit its downside [3][5]. Group 3: USD and Market Expectations - The USD is influenced by expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, as indicated by recent statements from Fed officials and moderate US economic data [4]. - Market tools indicate a high probability of policy adjustments by the Fed, which continues to affect the AUD/USD exchange rate [5].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant surge in 2025, outperforming gold with a year-to-date increase of over 95%, establishing itself as the leading precious metal [1][3]. Price Performance - Internationally, COMEX silver and London spot silver reached historical highs of $57.245 per ounce and $56.533 per ounce, respectively [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai silver futures contract surpassed 13,000 yuan per kilogram, peaking at 13,239 yuan per kilogram, marking its highest performance since listing [1]. Market Dynamics - The bullish trend in silver is attributed to three main factors: a shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve leading to increased investment in precious metal ETFs, a perceived valuation gap between silver and gold, and a significant drop in global silver inventories [4]. - The global silver supply has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with a projected deficit of 148.9 million ounces in 2024, narrowing to 117.7 million ounces in 2025, but still indicating a tight supply situation [5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Global silver supply is expected to remain stable or grow slightly, with a supply of 1.015 billion ounces in 2024, reflecting a mere 1.73% increase from 2023 [5]. - Industrial demand for silver is projected to reach 680 million ounces in 2024, continuing to be a key driver of demand [5]. Future Outlook - Market opinions on the long-term trajectory of silver prices are mixed. Some analysts suggest that further price increases will require additional catalysts, while others predict a sustained upward trend based on macroeconomic conditions [7]. - The ongoing supply constraints and high demand in industrial sectors are expected to provide strong support for silver prices, although short-term volatility may occur [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as the standout performer in the precious metals market, achieving over 95% growth this year, significantly outperforming gold and establishing itself as the "leader" among precious metals [1][3]. Price Performance - COMEX silver and London spot silver have reached historical highs of $57.245 per ounce and $56.533 per ounce, respectively [1]. - In the domestic market, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed 13,000 yuan per kilogram, peaking at 13,239 yuan per kilogram, marking a new high since its listing [1]. Market Dynamics - The bullish trend in silver prices is attributed to three main factors: a surge in investment in precious metal ETFs following the onset of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, a perceived valuation gap between silver and gold, and strong industrial demand amid declining physical supply [4][5]. - Global silver inventories have dropped to near ten-year lows, with free-flowing silver in the London market down approximately 75% from its peak in 2019 [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The silver market has faced a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of 148.9 million ounces in 2024, narrowing to 117.7 million ounces in 2025 [5]. - Global silver supply is expected to reach 1.015 billion ounces in 2024, reflecting a modest growth of 1.73% from 2023, primarily driven by mining output [5]. Future Price Support - Despite a narrowing supply-demand gap, the core supply tightness remains, providing solid support for silver prices. This is due to constraints in supply growth and persistent industrial demand [6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has experienced significant weekly outflows in silver inventory, indicating that any supply-demand disturbances could amplify price impacts [6]. Long-term Projections - The long-term outlook for silver prices suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend over the next few years, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing, declining real interest rates, and a recovery in industrial demand [7]. - However, caution is advised regarding short-term price corrections, influenced by factors such as improved liquidity in the London market and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has emerged as a standout performer in the precious metals sector, achieving over 95% growth this year, significantly outperforming gold and setting multiple historical price records [1][3]. Price Performance - COMEX silver and London spot silver have reached historical highs of $57.245 per ounce and $56.533 per ounce, respectively [1]. - In the domestic market, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed 13,000 yuan per kilogram, peaking at 13,239 yuan per kilogram, marking a new high since its listing [1]. Market Dynamics - The bullish trend in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a significant influx of private investor funds into precious metal ETFs following the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and a perceived valuation gap between silver and gold [4]. - Global silver inventories have dropped to near ten-year lows, with free-flowing silver in the London market decreasing by approximately 75% from its peak in 2019, while demand from industrial sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles continues to rise [4][5]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The silver market has faced a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of 148.9 million ounces in 2024, expected to narrow to 117.7 million ounces in 2025, but the overall shortage trend remains unchanged [5]. - Global silver supply is anticipated to grow only modestly, with a forecast of 1.73% increase to 1.015 billion ounces in 2024, primarily due to constraints in mining output and declining ore grades [5][6]. Long-term Projections - The current supply-demand imbalance is expected to provide solid support for silver prices, despite a narrowing of the deficit, as any supply disruptions could significantly impact prices due to low inventory levels [6]. - The medium to long-term outlook for silver prices remains positive, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, a potential weakening of the dollar, and a recovery in industrial demand [7].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251130 12 月 FOMC 前瞻："不降息+鸽派发布会" or"降息+鹰派发布会" ◼ 12 月 FOMC 前瞻：降息仍有变数，关注决议投票结构及点阵图指引。 10 月 FOMC 会议后，市场对 12 月的降息预期经历了"过山车"式的大 幅波动。本月前半，多位美联储官员的鹰派发言及 10 月 FOMC 会议纪 要令 12 月降息概率预期一度跌至 29.3%。但随着就业结构不佳及失业 率走高的 9 月非农数据发布，叠加美股大跌后纽约联储主席威廉姆斯及 其他美联储官员对降息的鸽派言论，12 月降息概率预期再度回暖至 83%。当前 FOMC 票委中公开表态支持 12 月暂停降息的共有 5 人，分 别为 Collins、Goolsbee、Musalem 和 Schmid 四位地方联储主席与理事 Barr。而支持降息的共有 4 人，分别为 Bowman、Waller、Miran 和 Williams 均为特朗普提名的理事与有永久投票权的纽约联储主席，其中 Miran 依 旧表态支持降息 50bps。由于美联储即将进入 12 月 FOMC 会议前的静 默期，因此 12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant bull run, with prices reaching historical highs due to geopolitical tensions, monetary policy changes, and central bank purchases, leading to widespread public interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3][9]. Group 1: Price Trends and Historical Context - Gold prices have surged from approximately $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4,100 per ounce, marking a nearly 58% increase within a year [1]. - In 2024, international gold prices set 40 historical highs, indicating a rare and robust bull market not seen in many years [1][3]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, with estimates from major financial institutions indicating potential prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce [8][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Geopolitical instability, including issues in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led investors to view gold as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and driving prices higher [3]. - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle has attracted funds to gold, as lower interest rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [3][9]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a reported net purchase of 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, indicating strong institutional support for gold [3][9]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Current gold prices are at a high level, with fluctuations observed, such as a recent drop from $4,150 to $4,090 within two days, suggesting potential volatility for investors [4][5]. - Historical patterns indicate that after rapid price increases, a correction phase typically follows, which may present buying opportunities for investors [5][10]. - The domestic market shows a divergence in pricing, with brand gold jewelry often priced 20% to 25% higher than international market rates, suggesting that investors may benefit from considering investment-grade gold products like ETFs instead of high-premium jewelry [6][10]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Consumer demand for gold jewelry in China has decreased by 32.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating that high prices may be deterring purchases [8]. - Investors are advised to prepare for potential short-term volatility and to consider a phased investment approach to mitigate risks associated with market entry at high prices [8][11]. - The long-term appeal of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty remains strong, despite potential challenges from high prices and fluctuating dollar strength [9][13].

白银进入加速冲顶阶段 贵金属周报 2025/11/29 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 贵金属重点数据概览 | | | 单位 | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-24 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 近一年分位数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | COMEX行情区间: | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-20 | | | | | | | 收盘价（活跃合约） | 美元/盎司 | 4256 40 . | 4076 70 . | 上 涨 | 4 41% . | 6 45% . | 97 60% . | | | 成交量MA5 | 万手 | 21 05 . | 25 76 . | 下 跌 ...

11月26日公布的数据显示，美国至11月22日当周初请失业金人数从前值22.2万人略降至21.6万人。这反 映出美国就业市场并未出现严重恶化的状况。 不过，前期公布的最新美国失业率较前值略有上升。这反映出当前美国就业市场的不景气迹象。 近期美联储官员的讲话也反映出美联储重要官员在货币政策方面的严重分歧。不过，从近期市场对于美 联储态度的分析看，在12月的议息会议上美联储继续降息25个基点的可能性还是比较大的。 然而，未来美联储的货币政策走向存在着很大的不确定性，美国经济的走向也存在着很大的不确定性。 这使得美国资本市场处于一种迷茫和焦灼状态。 笔者认为，美国经济在不确定性中蕴含着巨大的风险，美国经济的前景不是一片光明，而是面临着风雨 雷暴，投资者需要持更加谨慎的态度。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 就业是美联储斟酌货币政策的重要的依据。另一方面，美联储还需要考量当前经济的通货膨胀状况。如 今，美联储面临着比较尴尬的情况，一方面美国就业市场出现疲软迹象，另一方面美国经济 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]