研 究 院 货 金 融 炒作热情升温，沪铝再创新高 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 研 究 院 周末美国突袭委内瑞拉，带走总统马杜罗，多个国家强烈抗议。由于国际形势紧张，避险情绪上升，金属市场 全线大涨。铂，钯暴涨，黄金白银大涨，并且带动铜、铝等传统有色金属普遍大涨。俄乌谈判没有进展，假期期间伦 铝大涨。今日沪铝上涨，伦铝上涨，国内现货铝上涨。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报23645，现货报23310，现货较期货贴水-335点。本周沪铝大涨，现货贴水-230元， 今日现货成交有所好转。本周国内电解铝社会库存上升，氧化铝库存小幅上升。上期所铝库存小幅上升，淡季高位现 货需求较差。LME库存上升，LME现货贴水小幅收窄至-25美元，海外现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率上涨，铝价沪伦 比大幅上升至7.67，内盘走势强于外盘。 弘 技术上看，今日美原油大跌，俄罗斯等国能源出口受限，伦铝大涨，在3061美元附近运行。沪铝今日大涨创新 高，收于23645，技术形态强势。沪铝成交持仓均上升，增仓上行，市场情绪乐观。本 ...

发布时间：2026年01月05日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究报告-- 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 市场综述 最近一周，岁序更替市场波动。海外地缘局势骤然紧张，美国突袭委内瑞拉活捉总统马杜罗，英法联合空袭叙利亚，投资者避险情绪抬升， VIX指数大幅上扬。风险资产涨跌互现，全球股市与大宗商品跌多涨少，A股震荡分化，BDI指数小幅回落。美元反弹，人民币强势依旧，大宗商 品整体承压分化延续，内部风格转换，贵金属大幅回落拖累商品，有色表现坚挺，油价延续弱势，黑色系延续反弹小幅上扬领跑商品。 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究报告 国内债市全线回落近强远弱、股指震荡承压多数收跌，商品大类板块多数下挫表现弱势；股市震荡承压多数收跌，成长型风格表现相对于价 值型抗跌，中证5 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月5日电（吴郑思、郭洲洋）2026年的首个交易日，在金属板块强势带动下，国内商品期 货市场整体偏强。截至1月5日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1591.20点，较前一交易日上涨3.79 点，涨幅0.24%；中证商品期货指数收报2195.67点，较前一交易日上涨5.23点，涨幅0.24%。 分品种来看，金属板块尤其是能源金属和贵金属涨幅居前。其中，兼具贵金属和能源金属属性的钯金大 幅反弹近9%，领涨商品市场；碳酸锂大涨超7%，高点触及13万元／吨上方；铂则略弱于钯，但收盘涨 幅也在6%以上。此外，铜铝锌等基本金属也不同程度走强，沪铝盘中触及近四年新高。相比之下，能 化板块意外走弱，除烧碱大跌近4%以外，SC原油、焦煤也均跌超3%。 地缘局势主导贵金属走强铂钯再度大涨 乐观情绪支撑碳酸锂涨超7% 尽管周末美国突袭委内瑞拉并强行带走总统马杜罗夫妇推高了市场的避险情绪，但原油市场并没有按照 市场预想的"剧本"在周一（1月5日）走强，反倒在远期原油供应趋增和过剩压力持续的基本面之下，弱 势下探。截至收盘，SC原油大幅下挫3.39%，盘中创下半个月新低。虽然受美国石油封锁及制裁压力影 响 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the New Year's Day holiday, long - position funds took profits, causing the overall precious metals to decline from their highs. During the domestic holiday, overseas gold prices fluctuated little, with New York gold oscillating below $4400. On January 3rd, the US military launched an air strike on Venezuela and captured its president, which will heat up the market's risk - aversion sentiment and lead to a higher opening of gold prices. After the weekend fermentation, beware of a higher - opening and lower - moving trend on Monday. If the situation escalates or triggers a major - power game, gold prices will get medium - term support. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance at the $4400 mark of New York gold [5][22] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price [9][11] 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | January 2nd | December 26th | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,341.90 | $4,562.00 | - 4.82% | | COMEX Silver | $72.27 | $79.68 | - 9.30% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | N/A | $1,016.30 | N/A | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | N/A | $18,319.00 | N/A | | US Dollar Index | 98.46 | 98.03 | + 0.43% | | USD/CNH | 6.97 | 7.00 | - 0.49% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.94 | 1.91 | + 0.03 | | S&P 500 | 6,858.47 | 6,929.94 | - 1.03% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $57.33 | $56.93 | + 0.70% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 60.08 | 57.26 | + 4.93% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | N/A | 55.48 | N/A | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,065.13 | 1,071.13 | - 6.00 | | iShare Gold ETF | 493.78 | 492.64 | + 1.14 | [10] 2. Risk - Aversion Sentiment Boosts Gold Prices - Before the New Year's Day holiday, due to strong profit - taking willingness of funds, precious metals collectively declined from their highs. During the domestic holiday, overseas fluctuations were small. On January 3rd, the US military's air strike on Venezuela and the capture of its president heated up the market's risk - aversion sentiment. If the conflict is strictly confined between the US and Venezuela, the "boot - landing" effect may dominate, leading to a short - term rise and then fall of gold prices. If it triggers regional turmoil or major - power confrontation, the safe - haven demand will continue [12] - Last week, the US stock market also showed a trend of rising and then falling before the holiday, with strong profit - taking willingness of funds. However, from the VIX index, the overall market atmosphere was good [14] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - On January 2nd, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1558.91 tons, a decrease of 4.86 tons from the previous week. As gold prices declined from their highs last week, the holdings of gold ETFs also slightly decreased [16] - Last week, precious metals declined collectively, with silver falling nearly 10% and gold falling nearly 5%. The gold - silver ratio showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. Currently, the gold - silver ratio is below 60, breaking through the low since 2021, which reflects to a certain extent that the short - term increase of silver is relatively large [19] 4. Conclusion - Repeats the core view that the US military's actions in Venezuela will heat up risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a higher opening of gold prices. Short - term beware of a higher - opening and lower - moving trend, and if the situation escalates, gold prices will get medium - term support. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance at the $4400 mark of New York gold [22]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant market differentiation following the U.S. military action in Venezuela, which included the capture of President Maduro [1] - Investors quickly turned to precious metals for safety, leading to a rebound in gold and silver prices, while the oil market remained relatively calm due to oversupply concerns [2][5] - Gold prices rose above $4,430 per ounce after a previous decline of 4.4%, and silver prices surged nearly 5% to around $76 per ounce [6][8] Group 2 - The geopolitical turmoil triggered immediate reactions in the precious metals market, with investors seeking safe-haven assets [5] - Analysts noted that the fundamental changes in the global oil supply-demand balance have led to a muted response in the oil market despite the geopolitical tensions [14] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record oversupply of 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026, which diminishes the impact of Venezuela's situation on global oil prices [18] Group 3 - Venezuela's oil production, currently around 1 million barrels per day, accounts for less than 1% of global supply, which limits its significance in the global market [18] - The U.S. administration has requested major oil companies to invest in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, indicating a long-term interest in revitalizing the country's oil industry [21] - Industry experts express caution regarding the prospects of rebuilding Venezuela's oil fields, citing historical examples where regime changes did not stabilize oil supply quickly [22]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid increase in gold prices is driven by heightened global market risk aversion, influenced by geopolitical events, particularly U.S. military actions in Venezuela, which have created new uncertainties in energy supply and market risk tolerance [1][3]. Price Structure and Market Confidence - Gold prices have shown resilience after a previous high-level pullback, indicating strong medium to long-term confidence in gold as an asset [1][3]. - A significant price increase in gold is expected by 2025, with potential for normal profit-taking phases, but the overall outlook remains positive due to supportive liquidity and risk aversion factors [1][3]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - U.S. military actions in Venezuela have impacted market risk tolerance and created uncertainties in energy supply, which may lead investors to increase gold holdings as a hedge against potential volatility [1][3]. - The linkage between energy markets and macro inflation expectations suggests that increased uncertainty will drive funds towards gold [1][3]. Long-term Support for Gold - The fundamental support for gold remains intact, driven by expectations of declining interest rates, increasing official reserves, and insufficient global economic growth momentum, all of which are favorable for gold prices in the medium to long term [1][3]. - Even with short-term volatility, as long as core supportive factors are not disproven, gold is expected to maintain a strong operational pattern [1][3]. Broader Commodity Market Sentiment - The simultaneous rise in other metals such as silver, platinum, and copper reflects a warming sentiment in the overall commodity market, driven by both risk aversion and a reassessment of future demand and liquidity conditions [2][4]. - Gold remains a key emotional barometer for market sentiment, with its price movements serving as an important reference for assessing overall market risk appetite [2][4].

【要闻回顾】 摘要1月2日，COMEX黄金库存录得1132.26吨，较上一交易日增加4.59吨；COMEX黄金周五（1月2 日）收4340.60美元/盎司，上涨0.20%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4414.80美元/盎司，最低触及 4319.70美元/盎司。 1月2日，COMEX黄金库存录得1132.26吨，较上一交易日增加4.59吨；COMEX黄金周五（1月2日）收 4340.60美元/盎司，上涨0.20%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4414.80美元/盎司，最低触及4319.70美 元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： 日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持（吨） 2026-01-02 1132.26 4.59 2025-12-31 1127.67 0.00 避险情绪重燃是推高贵金属价格的主要因素。分析师指出："委内瑞拉局势促使投资者寻求防范地缘政 治风险，黄金和白银因此受益。"这是美国自1989年入侵巴拿马以来在拉美进行的直接军事干预，委内 瑞拉副总统已出任临时领导人，并表示马杜罗仍是合法总统。 除了地缘政治风险外，市场对美联储降息的预期也为金价提供了支撑。投资者目前仍预计美联储今年至 ...

当地时间1月3日凌晨，美军对委内瑞拉发动大规模空袭，持续约一小时，标志着特朗普政府将对马杜罗 政权的军事施压由海上打击升级至陆地打击。特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，抓捕委 内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人。 摘要数据显示，1月5日上海黄金现货价格报价990.45元/克，相较于期货主力价格（995.00元/克）贴水 4.55元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 1月5日 收盘价（元/克） 当日涨跌幅 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） 沪金主力 995.00 1.40% 115296 132523 【基本面消息】 数据显示，1月5日上海黄金现货价格报价990.45元/克，相较于期货主力价格（995.00元/克）贴水4.55 元/克。 1月4日特朗普在发布会上暗示，作为美国在地区更广泛政策的一部分，古巴可能成为讨论议题。据外媒 报道，这表明在拉丁美洲紧张局势升级之际，美国有可能将其注意力从委内瑞拉扩大到更广泛的地区， 古巴和哥伦比亚恐成下一政策目标。 截止12月27日当周，美国失业金初申领人数19.9万人，低于市场21.8万人的预期。美国12月标普全球制 造业PMI终值51.8，预期51.8，前值51.8。 【机构观点】 ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 1月5日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 995.00 | 1.40% | 115296 | 132523 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，1月5日上海黄金现货价格报价990.45元/克，相较于期货主力价格（995.00元/克）贴水4.55 元/克。 当地时间1月3日凌晨，美军对委内瑞拉发动大规模空袭，持续约一小时，标志着特朗普政府将对马杜罗 政权的军事施压由海上打击升级至陆地打击。特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，抓捕委 内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人。 1月4日特朗普在发布会上暗示，作为美国在地区更广泛政策的一部分，古巴可能成为讨论议题。据外媒 报道，这表明在拉丁美洲紧张局势升级之际，美国有可能将其注意力从委内瑞拉扩大到更广泛的地区， 古巴和哥伦比亚恐成下一政策目标。 截止12月27日当周，美国失业金初申领人数19.9万人，低于市场21.8万人的预期。美国12月标普全球制 造业PMI终值51.8，预期51.8，前值51 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The US's tough actions against Venezuela have briefly increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong performance in the precious metals market today, with significant rebounds in the platinum and palladium futures contracts on both domestic and international exchanges [2]. - Fundamentally, platinum may continue to see price support in the medium to long - term due to expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural supply - demand deficit, and expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst sector and the continuous spread of new energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may provide some price support, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective option again [2]. - In the short term, the Venezuela - US situation increases the risk premium and attracts risk - averse funds to the precious metals market, potentially supporting prices. In the long term, the divergence in supply - demand patterns may continue to drive the "platinum strong, palladium weak" market trend. The upper resistance for London platinum is at $2400 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1900 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is at $1800 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1500 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Palladium's main contract closing price was 583.95 yuan/gram, up 35.55 yuan; platinum's main contract closing price was 452.85 yuan/gram, up 36.95 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 573.65 yuan, up 62.15 yuan; the spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 413.00 yuan, up 5.00 yuan. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 10.30 yuan/gram, up 26.60 yuan; the basis of the platinum main contract was - 39.85 yuan/gram, down 31.95 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025, the total supply of palladium was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of platinum was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.03, up 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.91%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 13.60, up 0.13 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Venezuela's Constitutional Court ruled that the executive vice - president should act as "acting president". US former vice - president Harris opposed the US using military means to overthrow Venezuela's President Maduro. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson thought there might be a moderate further interest rate cut later in 2026, depending on the economic outlook. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January was 17.2%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 82.8%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 44.1%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 7.0% [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On 01 - 06 at 23:00, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI; on 01 - 07 at 21:15, the US ADP employment report; on 01 - 09 at 21:30, the US December non - farm payrolls report [2]