2024年"以旧换新"政策落地后，家电品类补贴范围扩容，拉动需求成效显著：除了09年已经涉及的彩 电、冰箱、洗衣机、空调、电脑5个补贴品类外，新增热水器、家用灶具、吸油烟机3个品类，共计补贴 8大品类。 申万宏源发布研报称，2025年以旧换新政策此前已落地，除补贴力度延续24年政策标准以外，新增微波 炉、净水器、洗碗机、电饭煲4类产品纳入补贴范围，同时24年已经享受过某类产品以旧换新补贴的个 人消费者25年购买同类产品可继续享受补贴。此次政策补贴涉及品类相较于此前，进一步放宽，有望对 消费者产生较大吸引力，推动以旧换新工作进行。参考24年政策落地时间，该行预计今年1-8月行业整 体销售仍存在低基数优势。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 25年以旧换新加力扩容，再度激活家电消费市场 25Q1烟灶品类保持双位数增长，洗碗机销售回暖 看线下市场，根据奥维云网数据，25年Q1油烟机实现销量33.04万台，同比+33%，实现销额14.19亿 元，同比+39%;燃气灶实现销量34.33万台，同比+21%，实现销额7.61亿元，同比+38%;线上油烟机实现 销量171.27万台，同比+20%，实现销额22.97亿元，同比+16%; ...

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, with Q1 2025 revenue at 1.05 billion yuan, down 7.46% year-on-year, and a net loss of 73 million yuan [1][2] - The overall revenue for 2024 was 7.131 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.76% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit by 84.28% [1][2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.05 billion yuan, down 7.46% year-on-year, with a net loss of 73 million yuan [1] - Q4 2024 revenue was 2.3 billion yuan, down 2.89% year-on-year, with net profit of 35 million yuan, a decline of 74.65% [1] - For the full year 2024, revenue was 7.131 billion yuan, down 6.76% year-on-year, with net profit of 67 million yuan, down 84.28% [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 25.24%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 0.94%, down 4.62 percentage points [2] - The company experienced a decline in profitability due to intensified competition in the bathroom industry [2] Product and Market Strategy - The company is adjusting its product structure to capitalize on national subsidy policies, aiming to enhance industry concentration and increase the penetration of smart toilets [3] - The company plans to focus on retail channel development and refined operational management to drive growth [2][3] Channel Performance - Direct sales revenue for 2024 was 1 billion yuan, down 3.49% year-on-year, while distribution revenue was 6.06 billion yuan, down 7.62% [3] - E-commerce revenue was 1.53 billion yuan, down 4.92%, but direct e-commerce channel revenue grew by 25.58% in Q4 2024 [4] - Overseas revenue reached 310 million yuan, up 137.73%, benefiting from the Belt and Road Initiative and overseas store expansion [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from national subsidy policies and aims to improve profitability through product innovation and scale effects [6] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 196 million yuan, 241 million yuan, and 301 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 41X, 33X, and 26X [6]

乘联分会数据显示，4月1-20日，全国乘用车市场零售89.7万辆，同比去年4月同期增长12%，较上月同期下降9%，今年以来累计零售602.4万辆，同比去期增 长7%;4月1-20日，全国乘用车厂商批发99.3万辆，同比去年4月同期增长14%，较上月同期下降12%，今年以来累计批发727.1万辆，同比增长12%。 4月1-20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比去年4月同期增长20%，较上月同期下降11%，零售渗透率53.3%，今年以来累计零售289.8万辆，同 比增长33%;4月1-20日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发53万辆，同比去年4月同期增长23%，较上月同期下降7%，批发渗透率53.3%，今年以来累计批发337.8万 辆，同比增长39%。 1.2025年4月全国乘用车零售市场平稳 | | 1-6日 | 7-13日 | 14-20日 | 21-27日 | 28-30日 | 1-20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 23年 | 37,304 | 43,954 | 53,718 | 70,151 | 75,291 | | | 24年 | ...

Core Viewpoint - BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. reported a significant recovery in its financial performance for 2024, with a revenue increase of 13.66% and a net profit surge of 108.97% compared to the previous year, indicating a rebound from a substantial decline in 2023 [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, BOE achieved total revenue of 198.38 billion yuan, up from 174.54 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 13.66% year-on-year growth [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.32 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 108.97% compared to a net profit decline of 66.22% in 2023 [1][4]. Business Segments - The display device segment generated revenue of 165.00 billion yuan, accounting for 83.18% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12.55% driven by a rebound in LCD panel demand and large-size TV products [1][3]. - The Internet of Things (IoT) innovation business reported revenue of 33.83 billion yuan, representing 17.05% of total revenue, with a slight growth of 0.11% [2][3]. - The MLED direct display business saw a significant revenue increase of 49.76%, reaching 8.48 billion yuan, contributing 4.28% to total revenue [2][3]. - The sensor business generated 386.47 million yuan, a decrease of 4.58% year-on-year, while the smart medical engineering business achieved 1.84 billion yuan, growing by 9.73% [2][3]. Market Performance - In the Chinese mainland market, revenue was 99.52 billion yuan, accounting for 50.17% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 23.57% [3]. - Revenue from other regions was 98.86 billion yuan, making up 49.83% of total revenue, with a growth of 5.17% [3]. Research and Development - BOE's R&D expenses reached 13.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.94% [4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue growth of over 10% in Q1 2025, aiming for a historical high for first-quarter revenue, with net profit projections between 1.6 billion to 1.65 billion yuan, indicating a growth of over 60% [4]. - The LCD business is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy in the Chinese market, while flexible AMOLED business is projected to improve despite traditional seasonal slowdowns [4]. Industry Position - According to RUNTO, BOE remains the leading manufacturer in the global large-size LCD TV panel market, with an annual shipment of approximately 59.7 million units, achieving a market share of 25.2% [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady revenue growth in 2024, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and product restructuring, despite challenges in certain segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.606 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.988 billion, up 5.68% [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.142 billion, reflecting a 15.69% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 0.434 billion, which is a 34.24% increase [1]. - The gross profit margin for main products in 2024 was 17.76%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points, attributed to product matrix optimization and cost reduction efforts [2]. Product Segment Performance - Revenue from electric bicycles was 13.037 billion, up 1.50%, while electric two-wheeled motorcycles saw a decline of 10.20% to 5.214 billion [1]. - Electric three-wheeled vehicles experienced a significant growth of 36.07%, generating 1.952 billion, and accessory sales rose by 30.79% to 0.847 billion [1]. Market Strategy - The company focused on international markets, achieving 0.235 billion in overseas revenue, a 3.82% increase, by deepening its global strategy in Southeast Asia [1]. - The company is enhancing its brand presence in the high-end market, which is expected to drive sustained profit growth [3]. Future Outlook - The implementation of the new national standards in 2024 is anticipated to optimize the industry landscape, benefiting leading manufacturers [3]. - The continuation of the "old-for-new" policy in 2025 is expected to stimulate domestic demand [3]. - Projections for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 2.607 billion, 3.038 billion, and 3.429 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.8, 11.9, and 10.5 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][3][12] Core Views - The company benefits from the old-for-new policy, leading to an improvement in gross margin year-on-year in Q1 [1][3] - The company's 2024 revenue is projected at 7.131 billion yuan, a decline of 6.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.7 billion yuan, down 84.3% year-on-year [3][6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year, with a net loss of 0.7 billion yuan [3][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 7.131 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 25.2%, down 3 percentage points year-on-year [6][10] - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 0.9%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 1.4% [10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.32 yuan per 10 shares for 2024 [3] Market and Product Insights - The company’s main products include sanitary ceramics, faucets, and bathroom furniture, with respective revenue contributions of 49%, 29%, and 11% in 2024 [7][8] - The sales of smart toilets reached 1.19 million units in 2024, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, contributing 21.4% to the company's revenue [8] - The company has over 20,000 retail outlets as of the end of 2024, an increase from 17,567 at the end of 2023 [7] Future Outlook - The company aims to leverage the policy window to boost offline retail and mid-to-high-end product sales, with expectations for profit margin recovery in 2025 [7][8] - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 2.0 billion yuan and 3.1 billion yuan, respectively, with a P/E ratio of 40.3 times for 2025 [8][10]

Investment Rating - The automotive sector maintains a "Buy" rating [8] Core Views - The automotive industry is expected to see a recovery in demand driven by the old-for-new policy and a new product cycle, which will enhance profitability [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy vehicles by 34%, with a total of 2.05 million units sold [2] - The report highlights strong performance from leading domestic brands such as BYD, Geely, and Changan, with significant profit growth anticipated [3][26] Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - In Q1 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 5.17 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 7% [3][12] - The price war in the industry has eased, leading to improved margins for major brands [3] - BYD, Geely, and Changan reported Q1 sales of 990,000, 610,000, and 450,000 units respectively, with BYD expected to achieve a net profit of 8.5 to 10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86% to 119% [3][26] Auto Parts - The auto parts sector is expected to see over 20% year-on-year profit growth for companies like New Spring and Bertel, driven by strong demand from leading brands [4][28] - Star Universe and Desay SV are also projected to report significant profit increases, with Star Universe expected to achieve a net profit of 330 to 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36% to 44% [4][31] Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a 7.6% year-on-year increase in sales of large and medium buses in Q1 2025, reaching a new quarterly high [5][32] - Heavy truck sales saw a slight decline of 4% year-on-year, but new energy heavy trucks performed exceptionally well, with a 157% increase in sales [5][34] Motorcycles - The motorcycle market is entering a new product cycle, with large-displacement motorcycle sales increasing by 85% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025 [6][36] - Companies like Chunfeng Power and Qianjiang are expected to report significant profit growth, with Chunfeng Power's net profit projected to increase by 50% [6][37] Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, BYD, Star Universe, and China National Heavy Duty Truck, all rated as "Buy" with target prices set for significant upside [11][42]

Core Viewpoint - Service consumption is a key focus of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with significant growth potential in both supply and demand sides, particularly in the tourism and cultural industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Service Consumption Policies - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have issued a "Service Consumption Quality Improvement Action Plan for 2025," outlining 48 specific measures across various sectors including dining, accommodation, health, and tourism [2] - The government's frequent issuance of work plans to support service consumption has enhanced market expectations for policy support [2] Group 2: Tourism and Cultural Industry - The tourism and cultural industry is characterized by its large capacity, broad scope, high resilience, and strong driving force, making it a significant area for potential subsidies to stimulate consumption [3] - Historical data indicates that tourism consumption subsidies can have a multiplier effect, with ratios ranging from 1:4 to 1:5, and in some cases, as high as 1:12 [3] Group 3: Beneficiary Sectors - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy include platforms, transportation, accommodation, scenic spots, and dining [4][5] - Past consumption voucher distributions show that hotel accommodation typically accounts for 20%-40%, scenic spot tickets for 15%-30%, and transportation for 5%-20% of total subsidies [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - With the government's clear direction to stimulate domestic demand, there is an expectation of continued policy support for service consumption [7] - The upcoming May Day holiday is projected to maintain high passenger traffic growth, with airline ticket prices expected to turn positive, indicating a significant holiday effect [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer sector, suggesting a gradual improvement in the fundamentals of the industry in 2025 [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The consumer sector has shown a steady recovery, with March retail sales increasing by 5.9% year-on-year, driven by effective policies such as the trade-in program [4]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies in boosting domestic consumption, especially in the context of ongoing trade tensions [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in various segments, including duty-free, emotional consumption, and tourism-related industries [4]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector experienced an overall increase, with textile and apparel, beauty care, food and beverage, retail, home appliances, and social services showing weekly gains of +1.57%, +0.43%, +0.24%, +0.24%, +0.18%, and +0.14% respectively [4]. - Notable stock performances included Anji Food (+50.00%), Haidar (+17.38%), and Guoguang Chain (+61.10%) [4]. - March retail sales reached a total of 5.9% year-on-year growth, with significant contributions from essential consumer goods [4]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released a work plan focusing on enhancing service consumption, proposing 48 specific measures to improve service quality and stimulate consumption [4][15]. - Companies like Juewei Foods and Encounter Small Noodles are expanding rapidly, with Encounter Small Noodles achieving a compound annual growth rate of 66.2% from 2022 to 2024 [15][16]. - The report notes that the trade-in policy has significantly boosted sales in home appliances, with over 35.7 million units sold, generating sales of approximately 124.7 billion yuan [4][17].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong growth outlook for the home appliance industry, particularly driven by government subsidies and the upcoming peak stocking season, indicating a positive investment sentiment [6][53]. Core Insights - In March 2025, the retail sales of home appliances reached 100.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 35.1%, significantly higher than the growth rates in January and February [2][13]. - The online and offline retail sales for the first quarter of 2025 (excluding 3C products) grew by 4.7% and 12.8% year-on-year, respectively [2][13]. - The "trade-in" policy and other consumption incentives have effectively boosted the consumer market, leading to a notable increase in domestic sales [2][13]. Market Performance - The white goods sector showed stable performance, with significant growth in online sales of standalone dryers and double-digit growth in offline sales of refrigerators and washing machines [2][16]. - The kitchen and bathroom appliances sector is showing signs of recovery, with notable increases in offline sales of range hoods and gas stoves [2][23]. - The cleaning appliances segment continues to perform strongly, with online sales of air purifiers and water purifiers increasing by 46.3% and 25.6% year-on-year, respectively [2][25]. Company Announcements - Hisense Vision reported a revenue of 58.53 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.17%, with a net profit of 2.246 billion yuan, up 7.17% [47]. - Supor achieved a revenue of 22.427 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 5.27% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 2.244 billion yuan [47]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic demand and subsidy-driven opportunities, suggesting companies like Gree Electric, Midea Group, and Hisense Home Appliances as potential investment targets [6][53]. - For companies with significant exports to the U.S., it is advised to select those with production facilities concentrated in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement area [6][53].