Economic Growth and Policy Implementation - The national economy has shown resilience and stable growth in April, supported by proactive macro policies that effectively respond to external shocks [1][2] - Major production demand indicators have seen significant growth compared to the previous year, with industrial value-added increasing by 6.1% year-on-year in April [2] - Fixed asset investment has also expanded, with a year-on-year growth of 4% in the first four months [2] Trade and External Resilience - Despite a challenging international environment, China's foreign trade has maintained steady growth, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% year-on-year in the first four months [3] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative has grown by 3.9%, indicating a diversification in trade partnerships [3] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market has shown stable growth, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.7% year-on-year in the first four months, supported by policies promoting consumption [4] - The "old for new" consumption policy has positively impacted sales in various categories, with significant year-on-year growth in household appliances and communication equipment [4] New Economic Drivers - New consumption drivers are emerging, with online retail and instant retail gaining popularity, leading to a 5.8% year-on-year increase in physical goods online retail sales [4] - The high-tech manufacturing sector has also seen robust growth, with a 10% year-on-year increase in value-added for high-tech manufacturing in April [3] Policy Effectiveness and Future Outlook - The effectiveness of macro policies has been evident, with a focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations to ensure sustainable economic development [5][8] - The government aims to enhance consumer capacity and improve the consumption environment to further unlock consumption potential [5]

Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% year-on-year [1] - From January to April, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year [1] - The growth rate of 6.1% in industrial production is one of the fastest monthly rates since last year, with 36 out of 41 major industries showing growth [1][2] High-tech and Emerging Industries - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 10.0% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.9 percentage points [2] - Specific sectors such as intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing and smart vehicle equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with increases of 74.2% and 29.3% respectively [2] - The production of industrial robots surged by 51.5% year-on-year, indicating a strong trend towards industrial upgrading and innovation [2] Consumer Market Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April grew by 5.1%, driven by policies such as trade-in programs [3] - The retail sales growth rate has remained above 5% for two consecutive months, reflecting stable market conditions [3] - Service retail sales also showed positive growth, with travel-related consumption increasing rapidly [3] Policy and Economic Outlook - Despite external shocks, the overall economic recovery trend remains unchanged, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies [4] - The need for coordinated policy efforts is emphasized, particularly in boosting consumption through both short-term measures and long-term reforms [4] - Future consumption-boosting policies should focus on demand-side initiatives, especially in fiscal policy [4]

Economic Overview - In April, China's economy demonstrated resilience amid external shocks and internal challenges, with various regions and departments implementing proactive macro policies to stabilize growth [1][2] - Key economic indicators showed stable growth, with industrial added value increasing by 6.1% year-on-year and the service sector production index rising by 6.0% [1][2] Industrial Performance - The industrial sector maintained rapid growth, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 6.1%, marking one of the fastest monthly growth rates since last year [1][5] - Equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, contributing 55.9% to the overall industrial growth [1][5] Service Sector Growth - The service sector's production index grew by 6.0%, with notable increases in information transmission, software, and IT services (10.4%) and leasing and business services (8.9%) [2][3] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.7% year-on-year from January to April, with service retail sales growing by 5.1% [3][4] Consumption Trends - The consumption of home appliances and cultural office supplies saw substantial growth, with retail sales increasing by 38.8% and 33.5% respectively in April [3][4] - Travel and communication services experienced double-digit growth due to increased demand during holidays [3][4] Investment Dynamics - From January to April, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 147,024 billion yuan, growing by 4.0% year-on-year, with high-tech industries showing significant investment growth [5][6] - The manufacturing sector exhibited rapid growth, particularly in integrated circuits (21.3%) and new energy vehicles (38.9%) [5][6] Future Outlook - Despite ongoing international uncertainties, China's economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by coordinated macro policies and innovation-driven growth [5][6] - The industrial sector is expected to continue its transformation and upgrade, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and fostering new industries [6]

（数据来源：国家统计局） 4月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长6.0%，较3月份回落0.3个百分点；1-4月份，全国服务业生产指数 同比增长5.9%，较1-3月份小幅回升0.1个百分点。 4月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.1%，较3月份回落0.8个百分点；1-4月份，社会消费品零售总额 同比增长4.7%，较1-3月份回升0.1个百分点。 21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道5月19日，国家统计局发布4月经济数据。 从4月当月数据来看，尽管规模以上工业增加值、全国服务业生产指数、社会消费品零售总额等同比增 速较3月当月有所下行，但是4月各项主要指标整体依然维持较好水平，推动1-4月份部分指标的增速较 1-3月份进一步上行。 一季度我国经济同比增长5.4%，但是4月份规模以上工业增加值、全国服务业生产指数同比增速均达到 6%，4月经济运行整体平稳。尽管4月中下旬以来，我国出口美国关税大幅提升，4月我国对美国出口同 比下降，但是4月当月整体出口依然韧性十足，表现好于外界预期。 4月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，较3月回落1.6个百分点；1-4月份，全国规模以上工业 增加值同比增长6.4%，较1-3月 ...

国务院新闻办今天举行新闻发布会，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖介绍，4月份，我国加紧实施更加积 极有为的宏观政策，经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好态势。 4月份，生产供给较快增长。从工业来看，宏观政策组合效应持续释放，工业保持较快增长。4月份，规 模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，是去年以来月度增速中比较快的速度。在"两新"政策加力扩围和产业 升级带动下，装备制造业持续较快增长，4月份装备制造业增加值同比增长9.8%。对规模以上工业增长 的贡献率达到55.9%。 今年以来，我国外贸韧性持续彰显。就业形势总体稳定。4月份，全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，比上月 下降0.1个百分点，连续两个月下降。 今年，我国新质生产力成长壮大。4月份，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长10%，其中，航空航 天相关设备制造、集成电路制造增加值快速增长，数字产业蓬勃发展。 国家统计局新闻发言人 付凌晖：4月份，外部冲击影响加大，但我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜 能大，宏观政策协同发力，各方面积极应变、主动作为，国民经济应变克难稳定运行，发展质量持续提 升，进一步增强了我们应对各种风险挑战的信心和底气。 来源：央视新闻客户端 国家统 ...

Group 1 - In April, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, influenced by falling international energy prices and domestic price drops in certain industries [1] - Despite the ongoing decline in PPI, macroeconomic policies are showing effectiveness, leading to a recovery in market demand and growth in new economic drivers, resulting in price improvements in some sectors [1] Group 2 - Demand in the high-end manufacturing sector has strengthened, with prices for wearable smart devices increasing by 3% and aircraft manufacturing prices rising by 1.3% in April, driven by economic restructuring and expanding demand for high-tech products [1] - The "Two New" policies are showing effects, with a narrowing decline in prices for household washing machines and new energy passenger vehicles by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1] - In traditional industries, there has been an improvement in supply and demand, with price declines in the black metal smelting and rolling industry and non-metallic mineral products narrowing by 1.4 and 1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [2] Group 3 - The continuous decline in PPI indicates that some industries are experiencing significant price drops, which negatively impacts the profitability of industrial enterprises [2] - There is a need to continue expanding domestic demand, promote technological and industrial innovation, and optimize capacity structure to achieve a high-level dynamic balance between supply and demand, thereby improving industrial product prices and enhancing business confidence [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent financial policies implemented in China, particularly the "5·07" incremental policy, which aims to stabilize the market and expectations amid external uncertainties and economic transitions. The response from the financial markets, especially the A-share market, has been more restrained compared to the previous "9·24" policy [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Policy Overview - On May 7, China announced a comprehensive set of financial policies to stabilize the market, which included a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy rates and a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio [4][9]. - The "5·07" policy is characterized by its broad scope, multiple measures, and rapid implementation, comparable to or exceeding the "9·24" policy [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the "9·24" policy, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a significant rally, gaining 27% over a two-week period. In contrast, the response to the "5·07" policy was more muted, with only a 2% increase over three trading days [4][6]. - The market's restrained reaction to the "5·07" policy is attributed to the fact that many of the measures were anticipated by investors [4][6]. Economic Context - The article highlights the ongoing economic challenges, including a decline in the GDP deflator index and a prolonged decrease in the Producer Price Index (PPI), which has raised concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy [9][10]. - The need for a balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system is emphasized, as low interest rates face constraints from insufficient market demand and bank credit supply [11][12]. Fiscal Policy Measures - The article outlines the government's commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy, with a projected deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in new government debt to support economic stability [13][15]. - Specific measures include enhancing financial support for foreign trade enterprises affected by tariffs and promoting domestic consumption [14][15]. Trade and External Relations - Despite challenges in exports to the U.S., overall Chinese exports have shown resilience, with significant growth in exports to non-U.S. markets [16]. - The article suggests that ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. may lead to a reduction in tariffs, which could further support economic stability [16].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [3] - The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and macro - sentiment and downstream start - up should be monitored [4] 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown is mostly from mid - to late January, and the resumption is expected around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and some after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. In April, the US PPI unexpectedly fell, and retail sales growth slowed. Fed officials need more data to determine the impact of tariff statements on prices and the economy [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased 1.5 percentage points to 57.5% [3] - On May 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 581,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday, 39,000 tons from last Thursday, and 166,000 tons from the same period last year, remaining at a near - three - year low [3] - Although the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots can maintain a de - stocking trend in the short term, around the end of May and early June, the circulation in domestic mainstream consumption areas may gradually ease. The key node of the subsequent inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots needs to be confirmed [3] - Short - term warming of the macro - atmosphere boosts prices, but subsequent consumption will enter the off - season, and inventory faces accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the support of fundamentals after the dissipation of macro - sentiment [4]

Group 1: Overall Core View - The black industry market is affected by multiple factors including macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international relations. Different products in the black industry have different trends [1][3][4] Group 2: Report on Each Product 1. Rebar - On Thursday, rebar futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 132 (+19) [1] - In terms of macro - policies, on May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies, and the Sino - US talks had better - than - expected results. In the industrial aspect, this week, rebar production and apparent demand both increased, and inventory continued to decline. Whether demand has started seasonal decline needs further observation [1] - In terms of valuation, rebar futures prices are still lower than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a low static valuation. In terms of driving factors, the Sino - US trade environment has improved, and the probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short - term is small. The current supply - demand situation is okay, but demand faces seasonal decline pressure. It is expected that prices will fluctuate [1] 2. Iron Ore - On Thursday, due to the good expectations from the Sino - US talks, the market speculated on export rush again, and the futures price rebounded. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton (-5), the Platts 62% index was 102.20 US dollars/ton (-0.60), and the monthly average was 99.67 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 82 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,422.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 118. The total inventory of 45 ports + 247 steel mills was 23,197.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 439.84. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 244.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 [1] - Steel mills' profitability this week is okay, and the willingness to resume production after blast - furnace maintenance is strong. As it is about to enter the traditional off - season, there is limited room for the high - level hot - metal output to increase further, with a peak - reaching expectation. The positive effect of domestic monetary policy has landed, and the follow - up macro - expectation effect is weakening. It is expected that iron ore will maintain a box - shaped oscillation [1] 3. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in domestic main production areas are generally stable, but some areas have phased production cuts due to safety inspections and sales pressure, and overall supply is relatively loose. In terms of imports, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is suppressed by weak demand, and traders' quotes are under pressure [3] - In terms of demand, the expectation of coke price cuts continues to ferment, downstream coke enterprises maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, the auction market sentiment is weak, and the transaction price of some coal types has declined. The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is not significantly alleviated, and coal mine inventory pressure is emerging. In the short - term, prices may continue to be under pressure [3] 4. Coke - In terms of supply, coke enterprises in main production areas maintain a stable production situation, and some areas continue to limit production due to continuous pressure on profit margins, but overall capacity release is relatively loose. In terms of demand, steel mills continue the low - inventory management mode, and the restocking rhythm is mainly based on rigid demand. High - level hot - metal output supports short - term consumption, but the expectation of seasonal weakening of terminal demand suppresses the willingness to stockpile raw materials [4] - The improvement of Sino - US relations boosts market sentiment, but the expectation of simultaneous decline in domestic and foreign demand for steel products intensifies the negative feedback pressure on the industrial chain. Mainstream steel mills still have a tendency to reduce prices when purchasing raw materials. The coke market is in a weak balance state of strong supply and weak demand, and short - term prices may continue to oscillate within a range [4] Group 3: Industry News - On May 15, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which requires the renovation of old urban communities, the construction of complete communities, and the renovation of old blocks, old factories, and urban villages [6] - From January to April 2025, the online retail sales and volume of China's home appliance market (excluding 3C) increased by 9.1% and 1.2% year - on - year respectively, and the offline retail sales and volume increased by 14.8% and 4.5% year - on - year respectively [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed is considering adjusting the core content of the monetary policy guidance framework to deal with major changes in inflation and interest - rate prospects after the 2020 pandemic [6] - According to Mysteel's May survey on the southward movement of steel from the north, the planned southward movement volume of northeast rebar in May was 360,000 tons, an increase of 142,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. The planned southward movement volume of wire rods was 275,000 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 20,000 tons month - on - month [6] - The Inner Mongolia Industry and Information Technology Department carried out on - site verification of the implementation of the 2024 stepped electricity - price policy and announced the verification results [6]

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业团队 2025/5/15 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 周三，螺纹钢期货价格震荡上行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3240 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 40 元/吨，10 合约基差 113（-8）。宏观政策方面，5 月 7 日， 三部门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过市 场仍在期待财政政策发力，中美会谈成果超预期，双方大幅互降关税， 市场预期改善；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需双降，库存小幅累积， 供需格局有转差迹象，当然也有五一假期因素影响，需求是否已经开始 季节性回落还需进一步观察。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格仍 低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸 易环境改善，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现 实供需尚可，但需求仍面临季节性下滑压力，关注需求变化，低估值背 景下，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周三，中美会谈成果营造良好预期，市场再度炒作抢出口，盘面向上回 调。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 778 ...