Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in gold prices, highlighting both short-term risks and long-term investment potential in the gold market [1][4]. Price Movements - On May 12, gold prices experienced a substantial drop, with COMEX gold futures falling below $3,270 per ounce. Domestic gold jewelry prices also decreased, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook marking their gold prices at 1,007 CNY and 1,008 CNY per gram, respectively, down 14 CNY from the previous day [1][2]. Market Analysis - Various gold-related ETFs have also seen declines, with the Huaxia Gold ETF dropping by 2.02% and the Gold Stock ETF falling by 1.54%. Key holdings such as Zhaojin Mining and Chow Tai Fook have also seen their stock prices decrease [3]. - Analysts from Guoxin Futures predict that gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term, with potential support around $3,250 per ounce. They suggest that geopolitical tensions or weak economic data could trigger a rebound [4][6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term investment value of gold remains widely recognized. Analysts from CITIC Futures maintain a bullish long-term outlook, citing a clear trend of slowing U.S. economic growth and ongoing trade tensions as factors that could support gold prices [6][8]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could rise to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and further to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by structural demand from central banks and investors [8]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments, as these factors will significantly influence gold price movements in both the short and long term [4][6][8].

Group 1 - The Canadian labor market data shows a faster-than-expected increase in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, impacting the USD/CAD exchange rate [1] - The USD/CAD pair is attempting to maintain its position around 1.3940, supported by progress in US-China trade negotiations held in Switzerland [1] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen described the two-day talks with Chinese officials in Geneva as productive, with expectations for more details to be released [1] Group 2 - Despite ongoing recession concerns, recent data suggests that the US economy is more likely to experience a slowdown rather than a full contraction, with no signs of accelerating inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about potential stagflation, with warnings from President Michael Barr about tariff increases disrupting supply chains [1] - Technical indicators such as MACD and CCI suggest short-term momentum accumulation for the USD/CAD exchange rate, although there may be a risk of a pullback due to the CCI entering the overbought territory [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, with the Federal Reserve signaling a "wait and see" approach, indicating a cautious stance towards inflation and employment data, while trade policy remains a critical variable [2][3] - The U.S. and U.K. have reached a preliminary trade agreement, reducing tariffs on U.K. car imports to a maximum of 10%, which reflects a potential baseline for future negotiations [2] - The report expresses a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, noting a strong rebound due to new financial policies, but acknowledges ongoing external risks and market volatility [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience volatility, with the S&P 500 showing signs of pressure despite recovering from previous declines, influenced by trade negotiations and potential earnings pressures [5][6] - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market's rebound requires additional capital inflows and sustained policy support, with current inflows primarily from the southbound channel [3][18] - The report notes that global stock and bond ETFs have seen accelerated net inflows, particularly into European markets, while U.S. markets continue to experience net outflows [6][25]

Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is projected to contract in the first quarter of this year, with economists forecasting a 0.3% annualized decline in GDP adjusted for inflation, marking the first quarterly negative growth in a year [1][4] - The economic contraction raises concerns over the Bank of Japan's policy normalization process and Prime Minister Kishida's prospects ahead of the summer elections [1][5] Contributing Factors - Multiple factors are contributing to the expected GDP decline, including a surprising drop in imports last quarter, which diminished the net export boost, and continued weak consumer spending amid high inflation [5] - Analysts suggest that Japan currently lacks growth drivers, with a significant possibility of consecutive quarters of contraction [5] Trade Negotiations and Policy Implications - The deadlock in US-Japan trade negotiations exacerbates the pressure on policymakers, as any signs of economic weakness could complicate efforts to reach an agreement [7] - The recent data may reinforce the Bank of Japan's cautious stance, with the policy committee delaying the timeline for achieving stable inflation targets by a year and halving growth expectations for the current fiscal year [7][8] Corporate Earnings and Economic Sentiment - Major Japanese corporations are beginning to lower profit forecasts due to tariff impacts, with Toyota predicting a profit decline of about one-third for the current fiscal year [8] - Concerns are growing regarding the sustainability of Japan's "inflation-wage" cycle, as real wages have been declining due to rising living costs, leading to subdued consumer spending [9] Political and Economic Risks - Japan is experiencing a domestic version of stagflation, with insufficient consumer spending to support a moderate recovery [10] - The weak GDP data could trigger a new round of political maneuvering for economic stimulus plans ahead of the summer elections, especially as Prime Minister Kishida's approval ratings have dropped to their lowest since taking office [10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable price range for gold between $3,200 and $3,500 per ounce, with a focus on ETF inflows as a key driver for future price movements [1][4]. Core Insights - Gold prices have stabilized after a rapid increase, primarily driven by strong ETF inflows, but recent outflows indicate competition from other asset classes [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 1% year-on-year increase in physical gold demand, driven entirely by investment demand, particularly from ETFs, which added 227 tons [2][4]. - Central bank demand decreased by 21% year-on-year, while jewelry demand fell by 19%, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [1][22][31]. Summary by Sections ETF Inflows and Demand - The report highlights that ETF inflows have reached their highest level since Q1 2022, with North America and Asia seeing significant contributions, particularly from China [4][15]. - Despite strong inflows earlier in the year, there have been 11 out of the last 13 trading days with outflows, indicating a shift in investor preference towards equities [5][39]. Physical Demand Trends - The first quarter of 2025 recorded a total gold demand of 1,206 tons, the highest for a first quarter since 2016, primarily due to strong ETF inflows [2][4]. - Demand for gold bars and coins increased by 3% year-on-year, reaching 325 tons, with notable contributions from China and Europe [15][18]. Central Bank and Jewelry Demand - Central bank gold purchases fell by 21% year-on-year, with Poland being the largest buyer, while China’s purchases slowed down significantly [22][31]. - Jewelry demand has weakened considerably, particularly in China and India, with declines of 32% and 25% respectively, attributed to high prices affecting consumer purchasing power [31][32]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report suggests that macroeconomic factors have less influence on gold prices compared to physical demand trends, with a potential 'stagflation' scenario providing a favorable environment for gold [35][36]. - The relationship between gold prices and real yields has weakened, indicating that uncertainty and physical demand are now the primary drivers [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between gold and U.S. stocks since 2025 reflects profound changes in the global economic order, with gold acting as a safe haven amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, breaking through $3,500 per ounce, followed by a 7% correction in May, before rebounding to $3,380, indicating intense market competition [1]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks, including the escalation of the Middle East situation and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside the imposition of a 145% tariff on China by the Trump administration, are reshaping global supply chains and enhancing gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset [1]. - Central banks globally have been net buyers of gold for 18 consecutive months, with Q1 2025 purchases reaching 243.7 tons, and China's gold reserves increasing to 2,292 tons, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold amid a trend of "de-dollarization" [2]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Challenges - The U.S. stock market has faced a reversal from optimism to panic, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices showing slight declines, and tech stocks like Tesla experiencing a 44% drop year-to-date, amid rising recession fears [6]. - Trump's tariff policies have led to increased import costs, pressuring corporate profits, with economists warning of a potential 4% decline in U.S. GDP in 2025, which could push the economy into a technical recession [8]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in May, despite persistent inflation, has created uncertainty in the market, with a 20% expectation for rate cuts in June, leading to rising bond yields and capital outflows from U.S. stocks [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Trends - Historical data indicates that during periods of market volatility, such as a 10% increase in the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX), gold prices tend to rise by an average of 1.5%, highlighting gold's role as a hedge against market fluctuations [12]. - In April, U.S. stocks saw an outflow of $8.9 billion, while European and Japanese stocks attracted inflows of $3.4 billion and $4.4 billion, respectively, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards diversifying away from U.S. assets [14]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and China, with the latter releasing 1 trillion yuan in liquidity through reserve requirement cuts, has further complicated capital flows, leading to a decoupling of gold and U.S. stock market movements [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite short-term technical adjustments, the long-term bullish foundation for gold remains intact, supported by central bank purchases, weakening dollar credit, and inflation risks, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could reach $3,700 by the end of 2025 [18]. - The structural risks in the U.S. stock market are increasing, particularly for high-valuation tech stocks, while defensive sectors like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals are becoming more attractive for investment [18]. - The weakening of dollar hegemony is prompting a shift in global asset allocation strategies, encouraging investors to build diversified portfolios that include gold and inflation-hedged assets [20].

智通财经APP获悉，上周股市小幅收跌，此前美联储主席鲍威尔重申了央行对利率政策的观望态度，而特朗普总统公布了美国和英国之间的贸易协议。 由于贸易波动影响了股票走势，三大主要股指上周均以下跌收盘。标准普尔500指数下跌约0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌约0.2%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 约0.3%。 未来一周将带来通胀的最新数据，周二将公布消费者价格指数(CPI)，周四将公布生产者价格指数(PPI)。零售销售数据将反映美国消费者的健康状况。投资 者还将关注与英国达成的有限双边协议后贸易协定的进展。 中国作为美国的第三大贸易伙伴，也是关注的焦点。包括财政部长贝森特在内的美国官员上周末在日内瓦与中国官员会晤，旨在缓和紧张局势并达成初步共 识。上周五，特朗普总统提出将中国关税削减至80%的想法。这一提议可能会促使中国方面采取降低关税的回应措施。 上周，美联储的政策制定者投票决定维持利率不变，理由是需更多数据和时间来理解关税的影响，而这些关税政策仍在变化中。 央行官员承认，贸易政策的变化增加了美国经济的风险。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示："我的直觉告诉我，经济路径的不确定性极高，下行风险已经增加。" "解放日"后的通胀 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks of stagflation due to tariffs and the divided market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, emphasizing the importance of financial market conditions in the Fed's decision-making process in 2025 [3][51]. Group 1: Overseas Major Assets & Events - The overseas asset performance showed divergence, with a significant rebound in oil prices. WTI crude oil increased by 4.7% to $61.0 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 3.1% to $3,326.3 per ounce [4][26][29]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a slight decline of 0.5%, with mixed performances across developed market indices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.37% [4][13]. - The U.S. and the UK reached a trade agreement, with the U.S. maintaining a 10% tariff on UK imports while reducing tariffs on UK automobiles for the first 100,000 units [4][33]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The May FOMC meeting highlighted a "wait-and-see" approach, acknowledging the uncertainty in economic prospects and the rising risks of higher unemployment and inflation. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at [4.25%-4.50%] [39][41]. - Fed officials expressed that the current economic conditions do not necessitate immediate adjustments to interest rates, emphasizing the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy [41][39]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 3 were reported at 228,000, lower than the market expectation of 230,000, indicating a robust labor market [45]. - Germany's industrial production in March increased by 3% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 1%, driven by strong performances in pharmaceuticals and motor vehicles [43][44].

Group 1 - The multilateral trade deficit reflects the gap between domestic savings and domestic investment, and tax cuts for billionaires will exacerbate this deficit by reducing national savings [1][2] - The Trump administration's policies, including tax cuts and withdrawal from international tax agreements, are seen as a strategy to undermine established systems that have been in place for 250 years [1][3] - Empirical studies show that tax cuts for the wealthy do not significantly impact economic growth or unemployment rates but increase income inequality [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. has become a service-oriented economy, with key exports being tourism, education, and healthcare, which have been systematically weakened under Trump's policies [2][3] - The fear of stagflation has impacted stock and bond markets, with potential tax revenue decreasing by over 10% due to weakened enforcement and compliance [3][4] - The U.S. government's withdrawal from international tax cooperation and enforcement of anti-corruption laws indicates a deliberate pattern of dismantling frameworks aimed at combating tax evasion and money laundering [3][4] Group 3 - The rise of unregulated cryptocurrency markets under the Trump administration has contributed to the growth of the global illegal economy, with significant regulatory rollbacks [4][5] - The issuance of controversial stablecoins and the promotion of cryptocurrency by Trump and his associates reflect a broader attack on laws that threaten wealth accumulation [5][6] - Global cooperation has proven effective in addressing tax issues, as seen with the introduction of a global minimum tax rate by over 50 countries [5][6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the emerging risks of stagflation in the U.S. and global economy, highlighting the potential for a prolonged economic downturn due to various factors, including supply chain disruptions and political influences on central banks [1][4] - It contrasts the current situation with the temporary supply chain issues experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating that the current stagflation could have more severe and lasting impacts on the economy and financial markets [1][3] - The article emphasizes the inefficiencies that may arise from the reorganization of global supply chains, which could lead to increased costs and prices globally, undermining the efficiency gains seen over the past decade [2][3] Group 2 - The politicalization of central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, is highlighted as a significant concern, with references to former President Trump's criticisms and threats against the Fed's leadership, which could undermine its independence [3][4] - The article draws parallels between the current economic climate and the stagflation of the late 1970s, suggesting that a weak dollar and political pressure on monetary policy could exacerbate inflationary pressures [3][4] - The potential for retaliatory trade actions resulting from protectionist policies, such as tariffs, is discussed, with historical comparisons to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and its devastating impact on global trade [5]