Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.198 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.13%, with a net profit of 76 million yuan, up 21.43% [3] - The continuation of the "old-for-new" policy for home appliances in 2025 is anticipated to drive performance growth, alongside the production launch of new projects [3][4] - The company is actively expanding into non-home appliance sectors, with new projects such as commercial refrigerators and ecological planting boxes expected to commence production in the third quarter of 2025 [5] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2022 was 919 million yuan, with projections of 1.049 billion yuan for 2023, 1.198 billion yuan for 2024, 1.312 billion yuan for 2025, and 1.477 billion yuan for 2026 [6] - The net profit for 2022 was 45 million yuan, with forecasts of 62 million yuan for 2023, 76 million yuan for 2024, 81 million yuan for 2025, and 94 million yuan for 2026 [6] - The company's EPS is projected to be 0.84 yuan in 2024, 0.90 yuan in 2025, and 1.04 yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.8, 21.2, and 18.4 respectively [3][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.198 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.13%, with a net profit of 76 million yuan, up 21.43% [3] - The continuation of the "old-for-new" policy for home appliances in 2025 is anticipated to drive performance growth, alongside the expected mass production of new projects [3][4] - The company is actively expanding into non-home appliance sectors, with new projects such as commercial refrigerators and ecological planting boxes expected to commence production in the third quarter of 2025 [5] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2022 was 919 million yuan, with projections of 1.049 billion yuan for 2023, 1.198 billion yuan for 2024, 1.312 billion yuan for 2025, and 1.477 billion yuan for 2026, indicating a compound annual growth rate [6][11] - The net profit for 2022 was 45 million yuan, projected to grow to 62 million yuan in 2023, 76 million yuan in 2024, 81 million yuan in 2025, and 94 million yuan in 2026 [6][11] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.84 yuan for 2024, 0.90 yuan for 2025, and 1.04 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.8, 21.2, and 18.4 respectively [3][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 220.5 HKD per share, based on a valuation of 12x PE for the retail business in 2025 [3][4][9]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3469.9 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 112.9 billion CNY, up 34.2% year-over-year [6][9]. - The company benefits from the "old-for-new" policy, which has significantly boosted revenue, particularly in the electronics sector, where revenue reached 1741.5 billion CNY, a 15.8% increase year-over-year [6][9]. - The report highlights a strong user engagement, with active user numbers and purchase frequency both showing double-digit growth for multiple consecutive quarters [6][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 11588 billion CNY, 12586 billion CNY, and 13322 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting the positive impact of the "old-for-new" policy [3][9]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are projected at 436 billion CNY, 483 billion CNY, and 510 billion CNY, benefiting from an increased proportion of high-margin products [3][9]. - The report indicates that JD's retail segment is expected to maintain high single-digit to double-digit growth due to ongoing government subsidies and a favorable market environment [6][9]. Segment Performance - JD Retail achieved revenue of 3070.6 billion CNY in Q4 2024, a 14.7% year-over-year increase, with operating profit rising to 100.4 billion CNY [6][9]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 521.0 billion CNY, up 10.4% year-over-year, with operating profit increasing by 37.1% [6][9]. - New business initiatives, including the launch of JD's food delivery service, are in early stages but are expected to leverage existing operational capabilities without significant immediate financial impact [6][9]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, JD Group repurchased 2.553 million shares for approximately 36 billion USD, representing 8.1% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023 [6][9]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.5 USD per share in 2024, totaling around 1.5 billion USD, with a new share repurchase program set to commence in September 2024 [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 220.5 HKD per share [4][9]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3469.9 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 112.9 billion CNY, up 34.2% year-over-year [6][9]. - The company benefits from the "old-for-new" policy, which has significantly boosted revenue, particularly in the electronics sector [6][9]. - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 has been adjusted upward due to the better-than-expected impact of the old-for-new policy, with projected revenues of 11588 billion CNY, 12586 billion CNY, and 13322 billion CNY respectively [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, JD Group achieved a product revenue of 2809.8 billion CNY, a 14.0% increase year-over-year, with the electronics category generating 1741.5 billion CNY, up 15.8% year-over-year [6][9]. - The service revenue for Q4 2024 was 660.1 billion CNY, reflecting a 10.8% year-over-year growth, driven by increased user engagement and advertising revenue [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be 436 billion CNY, with further increases to 483 billion CNY in 2025 and 510 billion CNY in 2026 [3][9]. Segment Performance - JD Retail's revenue for Q4 2024 was 3070.6 billion CNY, a 14.7% increase year-over-year, benefiting from high growth in home appliances and electronics [6][9]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 521.0 billion CNY for Q4 2024, a 10.4% year-over-year increase, with operating profit rising by 37.1% [6][9]. - New business initiatives, including the launch of JD's food delivery service, are in early stages but are expected to leverage existing logistics capabilities without significant immediate financial impact [6][9]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, JD Group repurchased 2.553 million shares for approximately 36 billion USD, representing 8.1% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023 [6][9]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.5 USD per share in 2024, totaling around 1.5 billion USD [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 220.5 HKD per share [4][9]. Core Views - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3469.9 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 112.9 billion CNY, up 34.2% year-over-year [6][9]. - The company benefits from the national subsidy policy, which is expected to continue in 2025, enhancing revenue growth prospects [6][9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 11588/12586/13322 billion CNY, up from previous estimates due to better-than-expected results from the trade-in policy [3][9]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 436/483/510 billion CNY, reflecting an increase in the proportion of high-margin products [3][9]. - The valuation for JD's retail business is based on a 12x PE ratio for 2025, leading to a calculated market value of 6480 billion CNY [3][9]. Business Segment Performance - JD Retail achieved revenue of 3070.6 billion CNY in Q4 2024, a 14.7% year-over-year increase, driven by strong performance in home appliances and 3C products [6][9]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 521.0 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 10.4%, benefiting from scale effects and operational efficiency improvements [6][9]. - New business initiatives, including the launch of JD's food delivery service, are in early stages and are expected to have a limited short-term impact on overall profitability [6][9]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, JD Group repurchased 2.553 million shares for approximately 36 billion USD, representing 8.1% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023 [6][9]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.5 USD per share in 2024, totaling around 1.5 billion USD [6][9].

交银国际研究 行业更新 2025 年 3 月 11 日 行业评级 领先 2 月乘用车销量同比增 26%，以旧换新政策+车企促销推动车市回暖 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 379.22 | 350.20 | 23.261 | 28.629 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 3.11 | 2.42 | 0.1 | | 理想汽车 | 2015 HK | 买入 | 120.34 | 113 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 217 / USD 56, corresponding to a 12x P/E for 2025E [3][5][26]. Core Insights - The company experienced a strong revenue growth of 13.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 347 billion, exceeding market expectations by 4% [1]. - The core product categories, particularly digital appliances, saw a robust growth of 15.8% year-on-year, driven by nationwide trade-in policies [1]. - Service revenue also grew by 10.8% year-on-year, with advertising and logistics revenues increasing by 12.7% and 9.5%, respectively [1]. - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in product revenue in Q1 2025 due to the expansion of subsidized categories [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 increased by 34% to RMB 11.3 billion, outperforming market expectations, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.3% [2]. - The company is entering the ride-hailing and food delivery sectors, which may enhance user engagement and purchase frequency, although increased subsidy investments could introduce uncertainty regarding overall profit margin improvements [2]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,084.66 billion in FY23 to RMB 1,250.05 billion in FY25E, reflecting a growth rate of 15.3% [4][6]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 35.2 billion in FY23 to RMB 51.09 billion in FY25E, indicating a growth rate of 45.1% [4][6]. - The adjusted net profit margin is anticipated to stabilize around 4.1% for the full year, with medium to long-term targets relying on scale efficiencies and product mix optimization [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 217 / USD 56, corresponding to a 12x P/E for 2025E [3][5][26]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue rebound with a 13.4% year-on-year growth in 4Q24, reaching RMB 347 billion, driven by strong performance in the electronics category due to national replacement policies [1][2]. - Service revenue also grew by 10.8% year-on-year, with advertising and logistics revenues increasing by 12.7% and 9.5%, respectively [1]. - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in product revenue into 1Q25, supported by the expansion of subsidized categories [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The gross margin for 4Q24 was 15.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while adjusted net profit rose by 34% to RMB 11.3 billion, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin for 4Q24 was 3.3%, with retail and logistics operating profit margins improving slightly to 3.3% and 3.5%, respectively [2]. - The report forecasts a high single-digit profit margin for the full year, primarily relying on scale efficiencies and product mix optimization [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,084.7 billion in FY23 to RMB 1,250.1 billion in FY25E, with adjusted net profit expected to increase from RMB 35.2 billion in FY23 to RMB 51.1 billion in FY25E [4][6]. - The report anticipates a stable profit margin of approximately 4.1% for the full year, with potential for improvement in the medium to long term [2][4]. Market Expectations - The current stock price is HKD 179, with a potential upside of 21% to the target price of HKD 217 [4][5]. - The report highlights a cash dividend of USD 1.5 billion, contributing to an annual shareholder return rate of over 5% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in inflation readings is attributed to the misalignment of the Spring Festival, and even after excluding this effect, the actual levels remain weak [2][10]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - In February, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by the high base effect from the previous year when the Spring Festival occurred in February [2][10]. - The food CPI fell by 0.5%, with fresh vegetables and pork prices decreasing by 3.8% and 1.9% respectively, reflecting a supply increase due to favorable weather and improved livestock inventory [10][11]. - The core service CPI saw a month-on-month decline of 0.8%, with travel-related prices dropping significantly, including a 22.6% decrease in airfares and a 9.6% drop in tourism prices [3][17]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month in February, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, which was below market expectations [12][14]. - The rise in international oil prices contributed positively to the PPI, while coal prices fell significantly, leading to a negative impact on the overall PPI [12][13]. - The low capacity utilization in downstream industries continues to exert downward pressure on the PPI, with expectations of a relative "over-decline" phenomenon in the future [12][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The supply-side constraints on inflation are expected to persist in the short term, and the impact of consumption-boosting policies may limit inflation recovery [13]. - In March, the CPI is likely to rebound above zero as the Spring Festival effects dissipate, but the actual recovery may be moderate due to sufficient supply and the "old-for-new" policy suppressing core CPI [13][14]. - The PPI is anticipated to remain under pressure due to low global oil inventories and potential demand suppression from tariff policies, with a projected year-on-year PPI midpoint of -1.2% by 2025 [5][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD [4][14] Core Insights - JD reported a revenue of RMB 347 billion for Q4 FY24, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.4%, exceeding expectations [8][9] - Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB 11.3 billion, up 34.2% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [12][14] - The company is expanding its trade-in policy and investing in its merchant ecosystem, which is expected to drive demand in electrical appliance categories [14] Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for JD are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,084,662 million - 2024: RMB 1,158,819 million - 2025E: RMB 1,247,550 million - 2026E: RMB 1,310,176 million - 2027E: RMB 1,357,656 million - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are adjusted to: - 2025E: RMB 51,614 million - 2026E: RMB 55,319 million - 2027E: RMB 58,000 million [17][14] - The company achieved a gross margin of 15.3% and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.5% in Q4 FY24, both showing year-on-year improvements [10][12] Business Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - JD is entering the food delivery market to synergize with its core retail business, enhancing user engagement and expanding consumption scenarios [13][14] - The company has initiated a share repurchase program, buying back approximately 255 million Class A ordinary shares for a total of USD 3.6 billion, which is about 8.1% of its outstanding shares [13][14] - The platform is expected to continue investing in high-potential categories such as apparel and beauty, which will enhance user appeal and drive scale expansion [9][14]