Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of new policies on the sales of commercial vehicles, particularly focusing on the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy, which has led to a significant increase in heavy truck sales in China [11][12]. Policy and Regulations - The "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy was implemented on March 18, 2025, by the Ministry of Transport and other departments, expanding the subsidy range and relaxing fuel restrictions [9]. - The policy has resulted in a year-on-year increase in heavy truck sales, with a notable 44.4% growth from March to June 2025 [11]. - However, some provinces like Shanxi and Hebei experienced a decline in sales due to local fiscal conditions and the efficiency of policy execution [12]. Market Insights - From January to June 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of commercial vehicle power batteries reached 51.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 126.2% [21]. - The market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five battery manufacturers holding 89.8% of the market share [30]. - The top three battery manufacturers, CATL, EVE, and Guoxuan High-Tech, have introduced innovative products targeting the heavy truck market, focusing on high energy density and fast charging capabilities [31]. Company Monitoring - SAIC Yujin launched two new energy light trucks, the Danna T2 and T3, aimed at logistics and urban distribution [33]. - Geely's remote hydrogen technology completed a third round of financing exceeding $200 million, focusing on product development and ecosystem construction [39]. - Beiqi Heavy Truck introduced the "Blue Dream" brand, emphasizing smart technology in logistics with new electric heavy trucks [41].

发布时间：2025-07-28 行业投资评级 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《国际首个超级细菌疫苗 III 期数据有 望年底揭盲，关注欧林生物》 - 2025.07.21 强于大市 |维持 医药生物行业报告 （2025.07.21-2025.07.25） | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 8580.75 | | 52 周最高 | 8598.12 | | 52 周最低 | 6070.89 | 医疗器械板块三季度有望迎来业绩拐点，建议 积极布局 行业相对指数表现 l 一周观点：政策和业绩拐点共振，建议积极布局医 疗器械板块 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% 29% 33% 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 本周医药生物上涨 1.9%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.21pct，在 31 个子行业中排名第 19 位。2025 ...

Core Insights - The overall performance of large-scale industrial enterprises in China showed a slight increase in revenue but a decline in profits during the first half of 2023, indicating a mixed economic environment [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Performance - From January to June, large-scale industrial enterprises achieved operating income of 66.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [2]. - The total profit for the same period was 34.365 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% when adjusted for comparable figures [2]. Monthly Trends - In June, the operating income of large-scale industrial enterprises continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 1% [6]. - Profit decline in June was recorded at 4.3%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 4.8 percentage points compared to May [5][6]. Sector Analysis - The equipment manufacturing sector showed significant growth, with operating income increasing by 7% in June and profits turning from a decline of 2.9% in May to a growth of 9.6% [7][8]. - The automotive industry experienced a remarkable profit increase of 96.8%, driven by promotional activities and investment returns [8]. Policy Impact - Government policies have played a crucial role in improving industry profits, with support for new categories and subsidies leading to notable profit improvements in related sectors [9]. - The expansion of domestic demand and anti-competitive measures are expected to further enhance profit recovery in the industrial sector [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the overall performance of industrial enterprises is likely to recover in the third quarter of 2023, supported by favorable policies and improved market conditions [12].

Profit Trends - In June, industrial enterprises' profits declined by 4.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from May's 9% drop, primarily driven by a significant rebound in automotive profits[1] - Excluding the automotive sector, June's industrial profits fell by 9.1%, worsening from May's -7.1%[1] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises in Q2 dropped to -3.7%, down from 0.8% in Q1, indicating the impact of tariff policies on profits and orders[1] Price and Revenue Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in June also showed a decline of 3.6%, compared to May's -3.3%[1] - Industrial enterprises' revenue growth slowed to 1.7% in Q2 from 3.4% in Q1, with June's revenue growth slightly improving to 1.6% from May's 0.8%[1] Sector Performance - Upstream industries saw a profit decline of 36.3% year-on-year in Q2, with coal mining profits worsening from -56.8% in May to -63% in June, contributing approximately 5.2 percentage points to the overall profit decline[3] - In contrast, oil and gas extraction and black metal mining showed recovery, with profits improving from -23.8% and -46.2% in May to -17% and 14.9% in June, respectively[3] Ownership Structure - In June, profits for state-owned and foreign enterprises improved, with state-owned enterprises rising from -18.1% in May to -8.3%, and foreign enterprises increasing from -7.3% to 11%[5] - Private enterprises, however, saw a decline in profit growth from 0.8% in May to -4.9% in June[5] Economic Outlook - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to support prices and profits in certain sectors in the second half of the year, although uncertainties remain regarding exports due to tariff disruptions[2] - The real estate cycle continues to show weakness, with property sales in major cities declining by 20% year-on-year in July, worsening from an 8.4% drop in June[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance sector [8]. Core Insights - The third batch of national subsidies has been allocated, with a focus on the effectiveness of policy continuity. The consumption upgrade policy has driven rapid growth in retail sales of home appliances and other categories, with over 280 million people applying for the subsidy, resulting in sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan [3][12][20]. - The retail sales of major home appliance categories have shown significant year-on-year growth, with air conditioning and audio-visual equipment increasing by 30.7% and 25.4%, respectively, contributing to a 5% growth in total retail sales [3][12][20]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on the following areas due to expected recovery in domestic demand supported by policy: 1. Major appliances benefiting from the old-for-new policy, recommending companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and TCL Electronics [5][21]. 2. The pet industry, which is expected to remain resilient against economic cycles, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [5][21]. 3. Small appliances and branded apparel, which may see demand recovery from a low base, recommending companies like Bear Electric and Anta Sports [5][21]. 4. Electric two-wheelers, with a strong outlook for domestic sales improvement, recommending companies like Ninebot and Yadea [5][21]. Market Data - The home appliance sector experienced a slight increase of 0.3% this week, with specific segments showing varied performance: white goods down 0.1%, black goods up 0.8%, small appliances up 1.1%, and kitchen appliances up 2.5% [4][25]. - Raw material prices have seen a decrease, with LME copper and aluminum down by 1.46% and 1.04%, respectively [4][25]. Industry Trends - The report highlights the long-term theme of international expansion, recommending attention to leading companies in clean appliances and major appliances that are gaining global market share [6][22]. - The restructuring of global manufacturing continues to favor Chinese manufacturing, with recommendations for companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, which are leading in global market share for major appliances and tools [6][22]. Company Performance Tracking - The report includes detailed sales data tracking for key companies in various segments, indicating performance trends and market positioning [36][37][41][42].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 11.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.68% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 940 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.07% year-on-year [4] Group 2: Domestic and International Sales - Domestic sales revenue showed stable growth due to increased resource investment in core categories and the positive impact of the "trade-in" policy [4] - International sales revenue also experienced good growth, with major foreign clients' orders increasing compared to the same period last year [4] Group 3: Product Strategy - The company plans to focus resources on traditional advantageous categories while iterating products based on differentiated usage scenarios and target demographics [4] - New product categories such as desktop water purifiers and ice makers are being actively developed to enhance brand recognition and consumer acceptance [4] Group 4: Competitive Strategy - The company adheres to a long-term strategy of product innovation, aiming to provide high-quality, high-value-added products [4] - Efforts are being made to optimize product and price combinations, strengthen resource investment in core businesses, and implement strict cost control to maintain stable gross margins [5] Group 5: Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio since 2021, with future dividend plans subject to adjustments based on capital expenditures and cash flow [5]

Group 1: Current Characteristics of Social Retail Growth - Social group consumption is slowly recovering, but resident consumption remains dominant, with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to 2.5% for social group consumption in Q2 2025[5] - The gap in growth rates between resident and social group consumption has narrowed from 4.2 percentage points to 2.5 percentage points in the first half of the year[5] - Social retail growth is primarily driven by commodity consumption, with commodity retail growth rising from 4.6% to 5.1% in Q2 2025, while catering retail has declined[7] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Policy Impact - Consumer sentiment is recovering, supported by stable employment, with the urban unemployment rate decreasing from 5.2% to 5.0% in Q2 2025[11] - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a positive impact on consumer willingness across various categories[12] - The remaining central funds for the "old-for-new" policy in the second half of the year are estimated to generate 1.4 trillion yuan in sales, comparable to last year's 1.3 trillion yuan[18] Group 3: Outlook and Risks - The growth rate of social retail may slow in the second half of the year, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the resilience of resident consumption against stricter regulations on social group dining[17] - The central government's funding for the "old-for-new" policy is expected to be distributed evenly, with 1,620 billion yuan allocated in the first half and 1,380 billion yuan planned for the second half[17] - Risks include slow recovery of consumer confidence and potential delays in policy implementation[24]

Core Viewpoint - The kitchen small appliance market, particularly the wall-breaking machine segment, is facing significant challenges, with retail sales expected to decline from 10.3 billion yuan in 2020 to 5.56 billion yuan in 2024, primarily due to market saturation and increased competition from specialized alternatives [1][12]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The wall-breaking machine is a food processing device that utilizes high-speed rotating blades to break down plant cell walls, enhancing nutrient absorption [4]. - The market for wall-breaking machines is categorized into three main types: traditional, steam, and silent wall-breaking machines, each catering to different consumer needs and price points [4]. - The average online price of wall-breaking machines decreased from 341 yuan in the first half of 2023 to 307 yuan in the first half of 2024, driven by declining market demand and competitive pricing strategies [14]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The retail sales of wall-breaking machines are projected to decline significantly, with a drop from 10.3 billion yuan in 2020 to 5.56 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a saturated market and reduced new purchase demand [1][12]. - Despite the overall decline, there was a slight increase of 2.2% in retail sales in the first quarter of 2025, attributed to government subsidies for appliance replacements [1][12]. - The increase in disposable income and consumer spending in China, from 32,189 yuan in 2020 to 41,314 yuan in 2024, is expected to enhance the demand for high-quality kitchen appliances like wall-breaking machines [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The wall-breaking machine industry is experiencing intense competition, with leading brands like Joyoung facing market share declines due to the rise of competitors such as Midea and Supor [16][17]. - New brands are entering the market, focusing on high cost-performance ratios and innovative designs to attract consumers, further intensifying competition [16][17]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more diverse marketing strategies, leveraging online platforms and influencer marketing to enhance brand visibility and sales [22][23]. Group 4: Future Trends - The future of the wall-breaking machine industry is expected to be driven by technological innovations, focusing on smart features, multifunctionality, and noise reduction to improve user experience [21]. - Companies are increasingly adopting diverse marketing strategies, including collaborations with influencers and leveraging social media platforms to reach younger consumers [22][23]. - There is a noticeable trend towards international expansion, with Chinese manufacturers looking to tap into overseas markets to mitigate domestic competition [24].

Summary of Supor's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Supor - **Industry**: Home Appliances Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" policy positively impacted Supor's domestic sales, but its marginal effect is decreasing. Long-term growth relies on macroeconomic improvement and consumer willingness to spend [2][8] - Supor's export business faced challenges due to U.S. tariffs, with some orders shifting to Vietnam. The company is collaborating with Cyber and other clients to mitigate the negative impact of tariffs [2][7] - The company maintains the highest market share in core categories both online and offline, continuously launching new products to meet consumer demands [2][4] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Supor achieved revenue of 11.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.68%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 940 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.07% [3][24] - Domestic sales benefited from government subsidies, but the overall demand remains weak. The company plans to focus on product innovation and channel transformation to sustain growth [3][6] Product Innovation and Strategy - Supor is committed to product innovation, launching new products in emerging categories like floor washing machines, coffee machines, and water purifiers [2][12] - The company aims to balance high-end and low-end products to maintain stable profit margins despite price competition [2][9] Export and Tariff Impact - U.S. exports account for less than 20% of Supor's overall exports, with cookware primarily shipped from Vietnam. The company is expanding capacity in Vietnam but remains cautious about capital expenditure [4][10][16] - The gross margin for exports has been around 18%, but it has decreased due to tariffs and sales fluctuations [15] Future Outlook - For the full year, Supor expects sales growth but faces pressure on profit margins. Domestic growth will depend on product innovation and channel changes, while export growth relies on Cyber's organic growth in global markets [6][24] - The company is cautious about relying on short-term stimulus policies and emphasizes the need for long-term strategic execution [8][21] Competition and Pricing Strategy - Supor is focused on maintaining high-margin products and avoiding a price war, especially in the 500-1,000 yuan price range, which aligns with its long-term strategy [18][9] - The company is adapting to competitive pressures by enhancing product quality rather than engaging in price competition [9][18] Management and Governance - The CFO is currently serving as the acting CEO, and the company has established a modern corporate governance structure [19][20] Dividend Policy - Supor plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio between 50% and 80%, despite uncertainties regarding future capital expenditures [23] New Retail Channels - Supor is exploring new retail models, including instant retail, to adapt to changing consumer habits and enhance sales through various online platforms [22] Conclusion - Supor is navigating a challenging market environment with a focus on innovation, strategic partnerships, and maintaining profitability while adapting to external pressures such as tariffs and competition. The company remains committed to long-term growth strategies despite short-term challenges.

Group 1: Production and Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's heavy truck market recorded cumulative sales of approximately 539,200 units, representing a year-on-year growth of about 7% [2] - In June 2025, the heavy truck market sold around 100,000 units, showing a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 47% [2] - The overall production and sales situation of the company has maintained a growth trend compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2: Natural Gas Heavy Truck Market - In the first half of 2025, cumulative sales of natural gas heavy trucks reached 91,500 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16% [3] - The company's sales of natural gas heavy trucks in the first half of 2025 aligned with industry trends [3] - Continuous technological advancements are improving the range and performance of natural gas heavy trucks, narrowing the gap with diesel vehicles [3] - The "old-for-new" policy includes subsidies for natural gas heavy trucks, providing substantial benefits for the industry and users [3] Group 3: Export Performance - The company relies on its subsidiary, Heavy Truck International, to achieve product exports, maintaining the industry's leading position for several consecutive years [3] - The export business continues to perform well, with products primarily covering key regions such as Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East [3] - The company is making progress in emerging markets while focusing on global collaborative development [3]