Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for economic rebalancing in China to address the downward pressure on prices and achieve re-inflation, emphasizing the importance of both supply-side and demand-side reforms to stimulate economic growth and improve asset returns [2][5][10]. Economic Rebalancing - The current state of China's economy is characterized by stable quantity but declining prices, necessitating a rebalancing of supply and demand to reverse price declines and achieve re-inflation [5][10]. - The Central Economic Committee's recent meetings indicate a push for orderly exit of outdated production capacity, signaling the potential advancement of supply-side reforms [6][10]. Internal and External Imbalances - China's external imbalance is reflected in a trade surplus, projected to be 5.2% of GDP in 2024, while internal imbalances manifest in mismatches between savings and investment, as well as consumption and production [11][13]. - The consumer rate in China has increased from a low of 34% in 2010 to 39% in 2023, indicating a gradual improvement in domestic consumption [6]. Supply-Side Reform and "Anti-Involution" - The article highlights the concept of "anti-involution," which aims to combat low-quality, price-cutting competition among firms, a significant issue in various industries including steel, cement, and automotive [15][17]. - The government is focusing on creating a unified market and eliminating local protectionism to enhance supply efficiency, which requires coordination with demand-side policies [17]. Industry Performance and Market Outlook - The stock market has shown structural trends, with A-shares reflecting valuation changes rather than earnings growth, as indicated by declining revenue and profit growth rates among listed companies [6][25]. - The article suggests that a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) could signal a turnaround in corporate profitability, supported by new consumption and technological advancements [7][25]. Economic Growth Projections - The article projects that China's GDP growth could reach around 5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, contingent on effective macroeconomic policies and a rebound in consumer spending [22][45]. - The anticipated economic growth is expected to be supported by fiscal policies, including potential subsidies for child-rearing to stimulate consumption [43][47]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The article notes that inflation remains weak, with the PPI experiencing a continuous decline, which may prompt further monetary easing, including potential interest rate cuts [40][48]. - The expected depreciation of the yuan against the dollar may also influence export performance, with a projected 5% growth in exports for the year [45][49].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and the **supply-side reform** initiatives, particularly focusing on the **steel**, **cement**, and **photovoltaic glass** industries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Economy**: Despite the U.S. imposing tariffs on multiple countries, the market's reaction has been muted. However, the long-term effects on U.S. corporate profits and inflation are expected to be significant post-Q3 2023, necessitating vigilance from companies regarding potential risks [1][3][21]. 2. **Differences in Supply-Side Reform 2.0**: The current supply-side reform differs from the 2015-2018 reforms in its broader scope, complexity due to international factors, and emphasis on institutional adjustments for long-term stability [1][4][5][17]. 3. **Economic Performance in H1 2025**: China's economy showed resilience with a GDP growth exceeding 5%, driven by export activities and policy support. However, challenges are anticipated in H2 2025 due to supply-demand imbalances and deepening deflation [1][8][9]. 4. **Sector-Specific Production Cuts**: The steel industry plans to cut production by approximately 30 million tons, while the cement industry has a reduction plan set to begin in November 2024. The coal industry is unlikely to be involved in this round of reforms due to electricity safety concerns [1][10][11][12]. 5. **Challenges in the Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic glass sector is currently facing losses, with leading companies beginning to reduce production. The industry struggles with low concentration and weak demand, making comprehensive supply-side reform a lengthy process [1][13][30][31]. 6. **External Demand Pressures**: China faces external demand pressures from high tariffs, potential declines in exports to the U.S., and a global trade cycle downturn, which could impact economic growth and inflation [1][18][19]. 7. **Stock Market Outlook**: The Chinese stock market has entered a volatile phase since June, with recommendations to focus on A-shares while maintaining caution towards Hong Kong stocks. The long-term impact of supply-side reforms is expected to be positive for the overall stock market [2][20][25][27][28]. 8. **Future Economic Predictions**: The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 and 2026 suggests a potential deflationary environment, but successful supply-side reforms could lead to upward risks in economic growth [1][29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Institutional Adjustments Needed**: The current reform emphasizes the need for institutional changes, including local government fiscal systems and social security frameworks, to achieve sustainable development [1][5][36]. 2. **Market Reaction to Policy Changes**: The market's response to new tariff policies has been characterized by investor fatigue, indicating a desire for clarity and stability in trade relations [1][22]. 3. **Long-Term Investment Strategies**: The call suggests a cautious approach to investments in the short term, with a focus on individual A-share opportunities, while the overall market is expected to improve in terms of investment returns over the next 6 to 12 months [1][24][28].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the 3500-point mark, indicating the establishment of a "slow bull" market, with a potential challenge to reach 4000 points in the next three years [1][2] - Key sectors leading the market include robotics and artificial intelligence, with significant market profitability observed [1][2] - The market is supported by three main factors: reduced external uncertainties, a stabilizing Middle East situation, and diminishing marginal impacts from the US tariff war, leading to a recovery in risk appetite [2] Group 2 - Economic data from July confirms a "demand deficiency," with expectations for fiscal and monetary stimulus starting in August, including accelerated issuance of special bonds and potential interest rate cuts [2] - Supply-side reforms are being initiated, particularly in industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and automotive, which are experiencing orderly capacity exits and improved profit expectations [2] - The AI application landscape is highlighted, with China positioned to lead in humanoid robotics, potentially becoming a major player in this industry within the next decade [2] Group 3 - The transition from a decade of real estate investment to a new era of equity market investment is emphasized, advocating for holding quality companies or excellent funds to share in the benefits of the new economic landscape [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current urban renewal policy is gaining momentum, driven by the "anti-involution" initiative, suggesting that supply-side reform 2.0 may gradually emerge, highlighting opportunities for marginal improvements in the traditional building materials supply-demand structure [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The cement sector is expected to benefit from accelerated project approvals driven by new urbanization policies, alongside a surge in orders from construction material enterprises [1] - Some regions, such as Ningxia, the Yangtze River Delta, and Chongqing, are planning to increase cement prices as prices have recently retreated to the lower range, indicating a potential for slight fluctuations in cement prices moving forward [1] - The traditional building materials industry is currently near the bottom of its cycle, with a long-term outlook suggesting continued optimization of the supply structure [1] Group 2: Index and ETF Information - The building materials ETF tracks the construction materials index, which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting listed companies in the A-share market involved in cement, glass, ceramics, and other building materials sectors [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the building materials industry, covering major segments of the industry chain and demonstrating significant industry representation and market influence [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook for China in the second half of 2025, focusing on the challenges of rebalancing the economy due to oversupply and the need for policy adjustments in various sectors, including real estate and antitrust measures [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth Projections**: China's GDP growth is expected to be around 5.1% for 2025, with a higher growth rate in the first half of the year but facing downward pressure on prices [1][5]. - **Macroeconomic Policies**: Anticipated further interest rate cuts and strong fiscal policies, with no additional budget deficit expected [1][5][12]. The budget deficit for the second half of the year is projected to increase by approximately 2 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [5]. - **Supply-Side Reform 2.0**: This reform is broader than the previous iteration in 2016, addressing not only traditional industries but also emerging sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles [3][8]. The current capacity utilization rate is around 74%, slightly better than the previous low [8]. - **Consumer Demand and Inflation**: The need to stimulate consumer demand is emphasized, with a focus on improving the distribution of income and enhancing social security systems to boost consumption rates, which currently stand at only 39% [10][11]. Inflation is expected to remain weak, with CPI potentially turning negative again [1][14]. - **Market Dynamics**: The A-share market is expected to see structural characteristics in the second half of the year, driven by valuation increases rather than profit growth [2][6]. The focus will be on corporate earnings, particularly in response to changes in real estate and export demand [18]. Additional Important Content - **Antitrust and Real Estate Policies**: The implementation of antitrust policies and adjustments in real estate regulations are crucial for addressing the oversupply issue [3][7]. - **K-Shaped Recovery**: The current economic situation reflects a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors recover while others lag behind, necessitating coordinated efforts to stimulate demand and investment [9][10]. - **Long-term Economic Strategy**: The call highlights the importance of transitioning from supply-side reforms to demand-side initiatives to achieve a balanced economic framework [4][10]. - **Currency and Commodity Outlook**: The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate slightly, while commodity prices, particularly in the A-share market, may diverge from overall economic performance [17][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and future expectations for China.

黑色建材日报 2025-07-11 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3123 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 60 元/吨（1.958%）。当日注册仓单 54625 吨, 环比增加 9720 吨。主力合约持仓量为 223.0035 万手，环比增加 55094 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3190 元/吨, 环比增加 30 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3262 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 72 元/吨（2.257%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.7104 万手，环比 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the CSI 2000 Index and its ETF, indicating a positive trend in small-cap stocks with significant gains in specific constituent stocks [1][2] - As of July 10, 2025, the CSI 2000 Index rose by 0.10%, with notable stocks such as Puyuan Software and New City hitting the daily limit, and others like Houpus and Silicon Treasure showing substantial increases of 19.07% and 17.46% respectively [1] - The CSI 2000 ETF (Hua Xia) has seen a recent increase of 1.72% over the past week, with a current price of 1.43 yuan and a daily average net inflow of 493.48 thousand yuan over the last four days [1][2] Group 2 - Western Securities notes that China's economy is facing internal and external imbalances, with recent discussions on addressing the "involution" phenomenon, suggesting that supply-side reforms are likely to advance [2] - The CSI 2000 Index focuses on small-cap stocks with high liquidity, emphasizing sectors such as machinery, electronics, and biomedicine, which are expected to have significant growth potential [2] - The top ten constituent stocks of the CSI 2000 Index account for less than 2% of the total weight, indicating a strong risk diversification advantage [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including macro finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It provides market trends, price movements, supply - demand situations, and trading strategies for each sector [2][11][24] - Different sectors face different opportunities and risks. For example, in the macro - finance sector, the stock index futures suggest trading based on economic and policy expectations; in the non - ferrous metals sector, the prices are affected by policies, production, and demand; in the energy chemicals sector, geopolitical risks and supply - demand balances impact prices [2][11][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Category Stock Index - **Base Ratio**: IF, IC, IM, and IH show different base ratios for different contracts [2] - **Trading Logic**: Overseas, focus on US tariff impacts; domestically, focus on the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. With low treasury bond rates and high stock - bond yield ratios, funds may flow into high - yield assets. Suggest going long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF long contracts at low prices, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [3] Treasury Bond - **Market Condition**: On Wednesday, TL, T, and TF contracts rose, while the TS contract remained unchanged. China's June CPI and PPI data were released, and the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4] - **Strategy**: Economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The PMI in June recovered, but exports may face pressure. The money market is expected to remain loose, and interest rates are expected to decline. It is recommended to enter the market at low prices [6] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold rose, while Shanghai silver and COMEX silver fell. The US 10 - year treasury bond yield and the US dollar index were reported [7] - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's minutes show a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts, with internal differences. It is expected that the Fed's stance will turn dovish. Focus on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Movement**: Affected by the US copper tariff policy, prices fluctuated. LME and Shanghai copper showed different trends. The inventory, premium, and import - export situation were reported [11] - **Price Forecast**: The policy is uncertain, and the price may fluctuate. In July, China's refined copper production is expected to be high, and the inventory is expected to be stable. Shanghai copper may be stronger than LME copper [11] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The domestic commodity market was strong, and aluminum prices rose. The inventory, processing fee, and spot premium situation were reported [12] - **Outlook**: The domestic market is strong, but overseas trade is uncertain. The inventory is low, but the supply may increase in July, which may limit the upward space of aluminum prices [12] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead, Nickel, Tin, etc.) - **Zinc**: Supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. The price is under pressure [13] - **Lead**: The primary supply is high, and the secondary supply is tight. The price is strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead may be limited [14] - **Nickel**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel iron is falling. It is recommended to go short at high prices [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is short, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [16] Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Condition**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices were reported [24] - **Analysis**: The export is affected by the Vietnamese anti - dumping policy. The domestic demand is insufficient, and the market needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [24] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The price of the iron ore main contract rose. The supply, demand, and inventory situation were reported [25] - **Outlook**: The supply decreased seasonally, and the demand was affected by steel production. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [25][26] Other Products (Glass, Soda Ash, etc.) - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices rebounded, and soda ash prices are expected to be weak. The supply, demand, and inventory situation were reported [27] Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Movement**: NR and RU rebounded. The reasons for the rise and fall were different, and the tire industry situation was reported [37][38][39] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term neutral view. Pay attention to the band operation opportunity [40] Other Chemicals (Crude Oil, Methanol, etc.) - **Crude Oil**: The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil rose. The inventory data was reported. The market is in a long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see [41] - **Methanol**: The price of the 09 contract and the spot price fell. The supply and demand are expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42] Agricultural Products Category Livestock and Poultry Products (Pigs, Eggs) - **Pigs**: The prices in different regions showed different trends. The supply may increase, and the price may decline in the north. The short - term long - position may have space, but the medium - term needs to consider supply and hedging pressure [53] - **Eggs**: The prices were mostly stable. The supply is large, and the demand is cautious. The short - term is recommended to wait and see or short - term operation, and the medium - term is recommended to short after the festival [54] Oilseeds and Oils (Soybean Meal, Vegetable Oil) - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are in a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal supply is high, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to supply pressure [55][56] - **Vegetable Oil**: The export of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the domestic inventory increased. The EPA policy supports the price, but there are still negative factors. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating attitude [57][58][59]

黑色建材日报 2025-07-10 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3063 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 0 元/吨（0%）。当日注册仓单 44905 吨, 环 比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 217.4941 万手，环比增加 6394 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收 盘价为 3190 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 1 元/吨（-0.03%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力 合约持仓量为 158.2553 万手，环比减少 11138 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements in each sector, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings. The overall market is influenced by factors such as policies, international trade, and seasonal patterns, with different sectors showing distinct characteristics and outlooks [2][3][5]. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance Index Futures - **Macro News**: The US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on Sino - US trade. Northern Rare Earth is optimistic about future rare earth prices. In June, the retail sales of national passenger cars reached 2.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.6%. There is no exact news about silicon material storage from Tongwei Co., Ltd [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards liquidity. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold declined, while COMEX silver rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.42%, and the US dollar index is 97.55 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak US inflation and economic data enhance the expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper declined, and Shanghai copper closed at 80,030 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. There are uncertainties in US copper tariff policies [10]. - **Price Forecast**: Shanghai copper is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and LME copper between 9,400 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Aluminum prices rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.53%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,540 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly [12]. - **Outlook**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is strong, but the sustainability of the long - position sentiment is uncertain. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and consolidate, with Shanghai aluminum trading between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton and LME aluminum between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [12]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index declined. Zinc ore supply is high, and zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. Zinc prices are under pressure [13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index declined slightly. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead batteries has stabilized. Lead prices are expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead may be limited [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices were weak. The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel demand and the cost of nickel iron. It is recommended to short nickel on rallies, with Shanghai nickel trading between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel between 14,500 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices rebounded slightly. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that domestic tin prices will oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin prices between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The upward space of lithium prices is limited without macro - level positive factors. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 61,900 - 65,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 trading between 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied in the short term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract declined. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is mainly affected by aluminum prices. The price has strong resistance above [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a weak and oscillating trend. The policy of "anti - involution and capacity reduction" has an impact on the market, but the specific implementation is uncertain. Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel will suppress exports [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand, and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore rose. The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand also declined. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price of glass was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short - selling positions should be avoided [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon closed slightly higher, and ferrosilicon closed slightly lower. The fundamentals of the two products are weak, but the market is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: Industrial silicon futures rose. The supply of industrial silicon is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and hedging positions can be operated when there is a profit [32][33]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded. The market has priced in the small - scale storage expectation. The bullish and bearish views are different. The tire开工 rate is neutral, and the inventory is increasing [35][36][37]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, a neutral view in the short term, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [38]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. There is uncertainty in geopolitical risks, and the market is in a state of tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of methanol declined. The upstream maintenance increased, and the demand decreased. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of urea rose. The short - term supply decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The price has support below and is recommended to be short - term long on dips [42]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene was stable, and the futures price declined. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly [43][44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose slightly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [45][46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract declined. The supply and demand are both weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [47]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract was stable. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. In the third quarter, it is expected to de - stock. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49][50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PE declined. Affected by the OPEC+ production increase, the cost decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PP declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price was slightly stronger. The supply is seasonally decreasing, and the second - fattening space is still available. The short - term long - position may have space, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The price of eggs mostly declined. The supply is stable, and the demand is cautious. The short - term price is expected to be stable, and the mid - term price may be affected by supply and premium [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal prices also decreased. The supply of soybeans and protein is in excess. It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and wait for new driving factors [56][57]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased, and domestic palm oil prices strengthened. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but there are also factors suppressing the upward space. The market is expected to oscillate [58][59][60]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. Brazil's sugar exports increased in June, and the domestic import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to continue to decline [61]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs". The basis between futures and spot is strengthening, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [62].