宏观金融类 文字早评 2025/07/07 星期一 股指 宏观消息面： 1、7 月 9 日是美国总统特朗普设定的关税谈判最后期限；特朗普称，7 月 4 日起将向尚未达成贸易协议 的国家发出新关税税率的通知，税率区间为 10%至 70%，并计划从 8 月 1 日起正式实施。 2、6 月份全球制造业采购经理指数为 49.5%，较上月上升 0.3 个百分点，连续两个月环比上升。 3、美国企业家埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台 X 上发文称，"美国党"于当日成立，以还给人民自由。 4、住建部：持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.46%/-0.94%/-1.16%/-2.09%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.63%/-1.53%/-2.47%/-4.55%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.80%/-1.99%/-3.17%/-6.02%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.64%/-0.85%/-0.85%/-0.93%。 流动性：央行周五进行 340 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.4%。因当日有 5259 亿元逆回购到期， 据此计算，单日净回笼 49 ...

钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-07-07 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3072 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 4 元/吨（-0.13%）。当日注册仓单 29168 吨, 环比增加 2095 吨。主力合约持仓量为 223.85 万手，环比增加 1338 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3201 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 7 元/吨（-0.21%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 1491 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.08 万手，环比减少 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For manganese silicon, the fundamental situation points downward in the long - term, with an over - supplied industrial pattern, expected marginal weakening of future demand in Q3, and potential downward adjustments in manganese ore and electricity prices. In the short - term, the market is driven by sentiment and expectations, and it's recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high volatility and lack of a clear trend [15]. - For silicon iron, in the long - run, it may face the risk of weakening demand, especially in the coil sector and potential significant drops in hot metal production. In the short - term, it's also recommended to stay on the sidelines as the price is in a volatile state [96]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price situation: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 564 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week and 290 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; futures主力 (SM509) closed at 5712 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from last week and 290 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; basis was 118 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.04% [14][20]. - Profit and cost: Manganese silicon's estimated spot profit remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 184 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 302 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 510 yuan/ton. The estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5734 yuan/ton, Ningxia 5801 yuan/ton, and Guangxi 6060 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply and demand: Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output was 18.01 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week. Weekly output of rebar was 221.08 tons, up 3.24 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week [14]. - Inventory: Estimated visible manganese silicon inventory was 67.03 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [14]. - Strategy: In the current high - volatility and trend - less situation, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [15]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of July 3, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 564 yuan/ton, futures主力 (SM509) closed at 5712 yuan/ton, basis was 118 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 2.04%, at a neutral historical level [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: As of July 3, 2025, estimated spot profit of manganese silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 184 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 302 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 510 yuan/ton [25]. - Production cost: As of July 3, 2025, estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5734 yuan/ton, Ningxia 5801 yuan/ton, and Guangxi 6060 yuan/ton. Main manganese ore prices and power prices were relatively stable [27][30]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of July 3, 2025, Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output was 18.01 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week, with cumulative weekly output down about 2.99% year - on - year. In May 2025, Steel Union's manganese silicon output was 74.3 tons, down 6.29 tons month - on - month [44]. - Demand: Weekly output of rebar was 221.08 tons, up 3.24 tons week - on - week, with cumulative weekly output down about 4.58% year - on - year. Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [58][61]. 3.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: As of July 3, 2025, estimated visible manganese silicon inventory was 67.03 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [70]. - Steel mill inventory: In June, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.49 days, up 0.34 days month - on - month, still relatively low [76]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - This week, the manganese silicon futures price showed a volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 16 yuan/ton or - 0.28%. In the short - term, it's expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton and the support of the rebound trend line. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [79]. Silicon Iron 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price situation: As of July 3, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, the futures主力 (SF509) closed at 5390 yuan/ton, the basis was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.10%, at a relatively neutral historical level [95]. - Profit and cost: Estimated spot profit of silicon iron remained in a loss state, with Inner Mongolia at - 438 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 304 yuan/ton, and Qinghai at - 452 yuan/ton. Main production costs were relatively stable [95]. - Supply and demand: Steel Union's weekly silicon iron output was 10.02 tons, up 0.27 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron was 16.53 tons, down 2.73 tons year - on - year [94][95]. - Inventory: Estimated visible silicon iron inventory was 13.58 tons, up 1.48 tons week - on - week, at a relatively high level compared to the same period [94]. - Strategy: It's recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high volatility and lack of a clear trend [96]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of July 3, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, the futures主力 (SF509) closed at 5390 yuan/ton, the basis was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.10%, at a relatively neutral historical level [101]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: As of July 3, 2025, estimated spot profit of silicon iron remained in a loss state, with Inner Mongolia at - 438 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 304 yuan/ton, and Qinghai at - 452 yuan/ton [106]. - Production cost: As of July 3, 2025, main production costs were relatively stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5538 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 5454 yuan/ton, and Qinghai at 5602 yuan/ton [112]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of July 3, 2025, Steel Union's weekly silicon iron output was 10.02 tons, up 0.27 tons week - on - week, with cumulative weekly output up about 2.45% year - on - year. In May 2025, silicon iron output was 41.48 tons, down 2.53 tons month - on - month [117]. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron was 16.53 tons, down 2.73 tons year - on - year [94][126]. 3.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: As of July 3, 2025, estimated visible silicon iron inventory was 13.58 tons, up 1.48 tons week - on - week, at a relatively high level compared to the same period [140]. - Steel mill inventory: In May, the average available days of silicon iron in steel mills was 15.38 days, up 0.18 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low historical level [143]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - This week, the silicon iron futures price showed a wide - range volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 6 yuan/ton or - 0.11% and a weekly amplitude of 4.5%. In the short - term, there is obvious pressure around 5500 yuan/ton. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines and not blindly buy at the bottom [146].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a new phase of supply-side reform (Supply-Side Reform 2.0) in response to the government's call for orderly exit of backward production capacity, particularly targeting industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce [4][10]. Group 1: Supply-Side Reform Context - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition and improve product quality, which has raised market expectations for a new wave of supply-side reforms [4][7]. - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the supply-side reforms initiated in 2015, which led to a significant bull market in commodities like steel and cement after addressing overcapacity [7][14]. Group 2: Industry Focus - The current focus of the reform is on new industries such as new energy vehicles and e-commerce, contrasting with the previous focus on traditional sectors like steel and cement [10][12]. - The article highlights that industries with historically low profit margins, such as petrochemicals, electrical equipment, and telecommunications, may also become targets for reform if the anti-involution movement expands [12][14]. Group 3: Demand and Market Dynamics - The sustainability of demand is crucial for determining the long-term direction of industries, as seen in the past when the real estate sector supported commodity prices during the previous supply-side reforms [11][12]. - The article raises questions about whether the current reforms will be limited to downstream sectors or if they will encompass the entire supply chain, which could significantly impact demand and pricing [14][15]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article suggests that the upcoming political bureau meeting will be a critical point for assessing the government's long-term demand-side strategies and their implications for various industries [15]. - It also notes that if the reforms are too aggressive, particularly in sectors that have already undergone significant transformation, there may be a need for government intervention to correct course [14][15].

余向荣在最新研究观点中指出，2025是中国经济的转折之年，房地产下行周期尚未结束，外部关税冲击难免对 出口有所影响。与此同时，以人工智能为代表的新经济方兴未艾，"一旦旧经济完成筑底，则一定程度上意味 着中国经济转型取得了初步成功，整体经济增长有望筑底回升。" 此外，供给侧改革2.0呼之欲出，若措施得力，将有助于工业品价格在未来两年内实现修复。 3月11日，花旗集团董事总经理、大中华区首席经济学家余向荣发表最新研究观点称，2025是中国经济的转 折之年，中国经济或迎实际和名义增长双重筑底。 整体经济增长有望筑底回升 "转折点是阿里巴巴宣布在未来三年加大在云和AI的基础设施投入超3800亿元，意味着每年投资近0.1%的 GDP。"他认为，考虑到其他科技企业资本开支的增长以及对上下游的带动效应，团队初步测算"人工智能 +"将带来5000亿元左右的增量支出，贡献GDP增长约0.4个百分点。 值得注意的是，余向荣也坦言，现在外界担心人工智能对劳动力市场的负面影响还为时过早，"目前，中国在 AI研究和应用方面还处于早期阶段，尚在吸纳相关人才，而中国庞大的劳动密集型产业依然是就业市场重要 的缓冲垫。" 另外，自去年9月新政 ...